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7/30/14 20:05
Target   3-Mo
3.00 Aust 2.96
0.10 Japan 0.13
0.50 U.K. 0.56
0.75 E-Z 0.18
0.00 Switz 0.02
1.00 Cda 1.17
0.13 U.S. 0.24
2-YR % bp chg
Aust 2.62 #REF!
Japan 0.07 #REF!
U.K. 0.86 #REF!
E-Z 0.04 #REF!
Switz 0.01 #REF!
Cda 1.11 #REF!
U.S. 0.56 #REF!
   
10-YR % bp chg
Aust 3.48 #REF!
Japan 0.53 #REF!
U.K. 2.60 #REF!
E-Z 1.18 #REF!
Switz 0.54 #REF!
Cda 2.15 #REF!
U.S. 2.56 #REF!

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EXCLUSIVE: Countdown to Next Data News

Economic Calendar

31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo Cons: 1.10% Last: -0.60%
31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr Cons: 1.40% Last: 1.90%

U.S. Data Releases Do Not Disappoint. U.S. GDP Set the Tone Active Calendar Thursday
July 31 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Credit markets have moved into a "risk-on" posture following a much stronger than expected headline preliminary headline GDP figure for 2Q14. We always warn to be careful to look more deeply into GDP data to see the impact of inventories. The ADP private payroll survey was a mild disappointment. A fear of higher interest rates has weighed on stocks.EURUSD is trading below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are broadly higher. Yields on the European periphery are higher as well. EZ 10-yr 1.17%, +5bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  +5bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.54%,+6bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are lower . U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI
  • A steady Fed Policy Decision was as expected. The markets appeared to be mildly disappointed by the dovish aspects of the statement and focused mostly on this statement. " Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."
  • 2Q14 GDP, boosted by inventories grew by a much stronger than expected +4.00% in 2Q14. 1Q14 DP was revised stronger to -1.90% pa from -2.9%. The data were taken as an indication that the Fed could be forced to tighten policy sooner rather than later..
  •  The July ADP Private Payrolls Survey saw Private payrolls rise only  +218K in the month after a +281K increase in June. The  data should not have much impact on street estimates for a 235mln increase in NFP in July.
  • On Thursday, German Employment and flash EZ HICP (CPI) data are the highlights. On Friday, a slew of final PMI reports, month U.S. employment data and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured. will see U.S. Durable Goods data  later today.
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:

THURSDAY
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo 1.10% -0.60%
31/07/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr 1.40% 1.90%
31/07/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 9
31/07/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
31/07/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.50% 0.50%
31/07/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy 0.80% 0.80%
31/07/14 9:00 C EZ Unemploy May 11.60% 11.60%
31/07/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm 0.30% 0.10%
31/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 284
31/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims 2.495 2.5
31/07/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 63 62.6
31/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 90
01/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
01/08/14 0:00 A CH Holiday n/a n/a
01/08/14 0:13 A JP Mfg PMI 50.5 51.5
01/08/14 1:00 A CN NBS PMI 51.3 51
01/08/14 1:45 A CN HSBC final PMI 51.9 52
01/08/14 7:50 B FR MFG PMI final 47.6 47.6
01/08/14 7:55 A DE MFG PMI final 52.9 52.9
01/08/14 7:58 A EZ MFG PMI final 51.9 51.9
01/08/14 8:28 A GB MFG PMI 57.2 57.5
01/08/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 230 288
01/08/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs n/a n/a
01/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.40% 1.50%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.40% 0.40%
01/08/14 13:30 A CA RBC-Markit PMI n/a n/a
01/08/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final n/a n/a
01/08/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 81.5 81.3
01/08/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.50% 0.10%
01/08/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 56 55.3
01/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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