In our last lesson we looked at how central banks are involved in the foreign exchange markets and how their deep pockets sometimes allow them the ability to control the level of their currency for their country's economic benefit. In today's lesson we are going to continue our discussion on the different participants in the foreign exchange market with a look at how the rest of the participants in the market affect us as individual traders.
Behind central banks in terms of size and ability to move the foreign exchange market are the banks which we learned about in our previous lessons which make up the Interbank market. It is important to understand here that in addition to executing trades on behalf of their clients, the bank's traders often times try to earn additional profits by taking speculative positions in the market as well.
While most of the other players we are going to discuss in this lesson do not have the size and clout to move the market in their favor, many of these bank traders are an exception to this rule and can leverage their huge buying power and inside knowledge of client order flow to move the market in their favor. This is why you hear about quick market jumps in the foreign exchange market being attributed to the clearing out the stops in the market or protecting an option level, things which we will learn more about in later lessons.
The next level of participants is the large hedge funds who trade in the foreign exchange market for speculative purposes to try and generate alpha, or a return for their investors that is over and above the average market return. Most forex hedge funds are trend following, meaning they tend to build into longer term positions over time to try and profit from a longer term uptrend or downtrend in the market. These funds are one of the reasons that currencies often times develop nice longer term trends, something that can be of benefit to the individual position trader.
Although not the typical way that Hedge funds profit from the market, probably the most famous example of a hedge fund trading foreign exchange is the example of George Soros' Quantum fund who made a very large amount of money betting against the Bank of England.
In short, the Bank of England had tried to fix the exchange rate of the British Pound at a particular level buy buying British Pounds, even though market forces were trying to push the value of the Pound Down. Soros felt that this was a losing battle and essentially bet the entire value of his $1 Billion hedge fund that the value of the pound would decrease. The market forces which were already at play, combined with Soro's huge position against the Bank of England, caused so much selling pressure on the pound that the Bank of England had to give up trying to prop up the currency and it preceded to fall over 5% in one day. This is a gigantic move for a major currency, and a move which netted Soros' Quantum Fund over $1 Billion in profits in one day.
Next in line are multinational corporations who are forced to be participants in the forex market because of their overseas earnings which are often converted back into US Dollars or other currencies depending on where the company is headquartered. As the value of the currency in which the overseas revenue was earned can rise or fall before that conversion, the company is exposed to potential losses and/or gains in revenue which have nothing to do with their business. To remove this exchange rate uncertainty many multinational corporations will hedge this risk by taking positions in the forex market which negate any exchange rate fluctuation on their overseas revenues.
Secondly these corporations also buy other corporations overseas, something which is known as cross boarder mergers and acquisitions. As the transaction for the company being bought or sold is done in that company's home country and currency, this can drive the value of a currency up as demand is created for the currency to buy the company or down as supply is created when the company is sold.
Lastly are individuals such as you and I who participate in the forex market in three main areas.
1. As Investors Seeking Yield: Although not very popular in the United States, overseas and particularly in Japan where interest rates have been close to zero for many years, individuals will buy the currencies or other assets of a country with a higher interest rate in order to earn a higher rate of return on their money. This is also referred to as a carry trade, something that we will learn more about in later lessons.
2. As Travelers: Obviously when traveling to a country which has a different currency individual travelers must exchange their home currency for the currency of the country where they are traveling.
3. Individual speculators who actively trade currencies trying to profit from the fluctuation of one currency against another. This is as we discussed in our last lesson a relatively new phenomenon but most likely the reason why you are watching this video and therefore a growing one.
That's our lesson for today. In tomorrow's lesson we are going to look at the main cities and time zones where the majority of forex trades flow through and the differing characteristics of the 24 hour trading day so we hope to see you in that lesson.
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Wed 20 Sep
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:30 US- Fed Decision Thu 21 Sep
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 Sep
All Day Flash PMIs
12:30 CA- Retail Sales and CPI Sun 25 Sep
All Day German Elections
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH WED -- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Will be watched very closely after hawkish BOE.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH WED -- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic. Closely followed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: MEDIUM WED -- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude Inventories. Most important oil statistic each week. Closely followed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH WED -- 18:00 GMT US- FOMC Decision followed by Press Conference. No rate Change likely. Announcement of timing and details of December QE taper expected. Could see strong reaction.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: MEDIUM THU -- 03:00 GMT JP- Bank of Japan- No rate change expected.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: MEDIUM THU -- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Claims distorted by storms.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium FRI -- All Day Flash PMIs Due. Usually not a major market mover except for US ISM data (due in early October).
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High FRI -- 12:30 GMT CA CPI and retail Sales. Both have the potential to move markets if they miss expectations.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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