Lesson 6: How Interest Rates Move the Forex Market Part 1
Lesson 6: How Interest Rates Move the Forex Market Part 1
In our last lesson we continued our discussion on what moves the forex market with a look at something which is known as the balance of payments. Now that we have an understanding of how trade flows and capital flows interact with one another to establish the longer term direction of a currency, we are going to continue our free forex course with a look at some specific examples from the current market environment, starting with an explanation of how interest rates move the forex market.
Like current and future earnings prospects are the most important factors to consider when trying to forecast the long term direction of a stock, current and future interest rate prospects are the most important factors to consider when trying to forecast the long term direction of a currency. Because of this fact, currencies are highly sensitive to any economic news that can affect the country's interest rates, an important factor for traders of all time frames to understand.
As we learned in module 8 of our free basics of trading course located in the free course section of InformedTrades.com, when the central bank of a country raises interest rates this not only affects the short term rate that they target, but the interest rates for all types of debt instruments. If the central bank of a country raises interest rates then debt instruments of all types are going to become more attractive to investors, all else being equal. This not only means that foreign investors are more likely to invest in the debt of that country, but also that domestic investors are less likely to look outside the country for higher yield, creating more demand for the debt of that country and driving the value of the currency up, all else being equal.
Conversely, when a central bank lowers interest rates, then interest rates on all types of debt instruments for that country are going to be less attractive to investors, all else being equal. This not only means that both foreign and domestic investors are less likely to invest in the debt of that country, but that they are also more likely to pull money out to seek higher returns in other countries, creating less demand for, and a greater market supply of that currency, and driving its value down, all else being equal.
Once this is understood, it is next important to understand that foreign investors are exposed to not only the potential profit or loss from interest rate changes on the debt instrument they are investing in, but also to profits and losses which result from fluctuations in the value of that country's currency. This is an important concept to understand, as it generally will work to increase the profits for investors when interest rates increase, as the increase in the value of the currency is realized when they sell the investment and convert back into their home country's currency. This gives the foreign investor that much extra return on their investment, and that much extra incentive to invest when interest rates rise, driving the value of the currency up further all else being equal.
Conversely when interest rates decrease, there will be less demand for the debt instruments of a country not only because of the lower yield to investors, but also because of the decrease in the value of the currency that normally comes with a decrease in interest rates. The additional whammy of a loss to the foreign investor from the currency conversion that results as part of the investment, further incitivizes them to put their money elsewhere, decreasing the value of the currency further, all else being equal.
That's our lesson for today, in our next lesson we will help drive this point home with an example of this exact situation at work in today's market environment, so we hope to see you in that lesson.
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the
Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders
in more than 30 different countries. If you are looking for a quality Forex TRADING Service, see details below.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.