In our last lesson we began a new module on the fundamentals of the forex market with a look at how traders who have an understanding of both technical and fundamental analysis are in the best position to be successful in the foreign exchange and other markets. In today's lesson we are going to continue our free forex trading course with a review of what we have learned up to this point so we can make sure that everyone has an understanding of the basics which they will need throughout the rest of this course.
As we now have a basic understanding of how trade flows and capital flows move the forex market, the next step is to look at each of the individual currencies we will be focusing on so we can gain an understanding of their backgrounds, and the makeup of their economies. Once we have an understanding of this it will become clear what fundamental factors are the most important drivers of individual currencies, and therefore what we as traders should watch for.
Before we get into this however it is very important that everyone has a sound understanding of how trade flows and capital flows move the forex market (which is covered in module 3 of this course) as well as the following concepts, all of which are covered in module 8 of our free basics of trading course located in the free course section of InformedTrades.com:
- We all need to understand what the business cycle is.
- The difference between monetary and fiscal policy.
- What a central bank is and how they go about changing interest rates. In module 8 of the basics of trading course we cover the Federal Reserve which is the central bank in the United States. While the central banks that we are going to be covering going forward may differ in how aggressive they are with monetary policy in relation to the Federal Reserve, the methods they use to conduct monetary policy, and the reactions of the forex market that monetary policy generates, is basically the same no matter what central bank you are looking at.
- The first currency we will be covering will be the US Dollar, so you should have a good understanding of the basic components of the US Economy.
I am going to give everyone 10 questions here that you should now have the knowledge to answer if you have been through module 8 of my free basics of trading course, and module 3 of this course. Ok so here we go:
1. If inflation is low and a Central Bank is concerned about recession, what would the expected monetary policy response be?
2. If inflation and growth are both high what would the expected monetary policy response be?
3. If a central bank raises interest rates, what affect if any is this expected to have on the currency of that country, all else being equal?
4. If a central bank lowers interest rates, what affect if any is this expected to have on the currency of that country, all else being equal?
5. If a country's imports grow and all other trade and capital flows remain equal, what affect would this have on the current account and what would be the expected affect on the currency if any?
6. If a country's exports grow and all other trade and capital flows remain equal, what affect would this have on the current account and what would be the expected affect on the currency if any?
7. If a country is a major exporter of gold and the price of gold moves up by 50% over the course of a year, what would be the expected affect if any on that country's currency all else being equal?
8. Japan is a major importer of oil and Canada is a major exporter of oil. If the price of oil goes up by 50% over the course of a year, then what affect if any should this have on the CAD/JPY currency pair all else being equal?
9. Traders who follow US Dollar fundamentals pay particular attention to any numbers which reflect the overall health of the consumer. Why?
10. The US Economy in the past was referred to as an Industrial Economy, now it is referred to more as a ________________ Economy.
Once the first person posts the right answers to all 10 questions I will send a private message to them via the forum to request the mailing address where they would like their free copy of Day Trading the Currency Market sent.
That's our lesson for today. In tomorrow's lesson we will begin a discussion on the fundamentals that move each of the main currencies we will be focusing on, starting with the US Dollar, so I hope to see you in that lesson.
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS: 24-May TUESDAY
14:00 US- New Home Sales 25-May WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Rates
14:30 US- EIA Crude 26-May THURSDAY
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
13:45 US- flash Service PMI
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales 27-May FRIDAY
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
17:15 US- Fed's Yellen Speaks
Trading Themes --
The USD is trading generally higher early Tuesday as complaints by U.S. Treasury Secretary Lew about Japan's forex strategy have lost their punch. Otherwise, the EURUSD is testing again below the psychological 1.1200 line. The EUR is mixed on its crosses.
The GBP has gained on mounting speculation that the Brexit referendum is likely to go down to defeat on June 23. Some still doubt that view. The AUD has weakened on mounting speculation about an imminent RBA interest rate cut.
The German ZEW Survey came in mixed for the second straight month with the "Current Situation" improving but "Expectations" have been weak.
Interest is growing in a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Yellen at Harvard Friday at 17:15 GMT. The hope is she will clarify the outlook for Fed policy heading into the long U.S. weekend.
John M.Bland MBA co-founder global-View.com
If you would like to earn up to $200 working with us, send me an EMAIL
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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