Lesson 2: A Traders Introduction to the Euro, Part II
Lesson 2: A Traders Introduction to the Euro, Part II
In our last lesson we began our discussion on the Euro, with a look at the history leading up to the formation of the European Union and the criteria that had to be met before the Euro's launch. In today's lesson we are going to continue our discussion on the Euro, with a look at the introduction of the currency, as well as some of the factors which affect its long term fundamentals.
As we discussed in our last lesson, the Euro was launched as an electronic currency on January 1st 1999. As you can see from this chart, the markets initial confidence in the Euro, and really the European Union as a whole, was initially not very high. Over the next year the currency sold off from just above 1.1600 dollars to 1 Euro at its inception, to a low point of around .8200 cents to 1 Euro towards the end of 2000. While the tables have turned now in the Euro's favor, it actually took the European Central Bank intervening in the markets and buying Euros, to keep the currency from sliding further in 2000.
The launch of the Euro was the largest monetary changeover ever, and as you can see, was not guaranteed success. As we touched on in our last lesson, getting a dozen countries, which varied widely in their economic and political clout, to give up control over their own monetary policy and switch to a more centralized monetary system, was no easy task.
As we learned about in module 8 of our basics of trading course, one of the most powerful tools that countries have to try and manage their business cycle is monetary policy, a tool which those adopting the Euro were essentially giving up. Although we have not seen a real test of this yet, you can imagine a situation where the economy of one of the major countries in the EMU such as Germany, goes into recession, but overall growth in the rest of the EMU is steady. If Germany were not part of the EMU, they could cut interest rates to try and bring their economy out of recession. Since they are however, their hands would be tied in this situation from a monetary policy standpoint, which may drive their economy deeper into recession than would otherwise be the case.
As we also learned about in module 8 of our free basics of trading course, countries have a second tool to manage the business cycle, which is Fiscal policy. As the EMU nations are still primarily independent from a fiscal policy standpoint, they do still have this in their toolbox. The issue here however, is that one of the ongoing requirements established in the Massstricht treaty for countries which join the EMU, is that member country's budget deficits must be less than 3% of GDP. So here again member nations are someone limited in what they can do to help their own economies, should it falter.
Of all the things to understand about the Euro from a fundamentals standpoint, it is this that is the most important, as it is here that a true test of the Euro, will eventually come.
So far I think most would agree that the Euro has been a resounding success, and since the original 12 countries replaced their currencies with the Euro as their paper currency in January of 2002, 3 more EU member nations have joined the EMU, and 5 other countries outside the EU have adopted the Euro as their official currency.
As a result of its success and the large combined economies that the currency represent, many feel that the Euro will one day replace the US Dollar as the premiere currency of the world. If you have thoughts on this I would love for you to share them in the comments section below.
Thats our lesson for today. In our next lesson we will look at the major economies of Europe which traders watch closely for fundamental direction in the currency so we hope to see you in that lesson.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.