Forex Forum Archive for 05/13/2008

Syd 23:55 GMT May 13, 2008
Difficult times ahead: survey
Business conditions might have stabilised in April but confidence continued to worsen, signalling difficult times ahead, a survey says. National Australia Bank's monthly business survey for April found business confidence fell four index points, to minus-eight points. That is significantly below the average of the past decade, the report said. "The recent tightening in domestic financial conditions by the monetary authorities as well as global financial turbulence has taken a heavy toll on confidence in the near term," the report, released today, said. "This may well signal significantly weaker actual business conditions lay ahead." Business conditions were unchanged in April at plus-seven index points, but remained at their lowest levels since December 2002.
High interest rates and slumping consumer confidence were reflected in deteriorating conditions in the retail, finance and personal and recreational services sectors. NAB's group chief economist Alan Oster said there was a broad based slowing in domestic demand and business conditions. "Business confidence has taken another hit," Mr Oster said in the report. "Clearly the rapid and broad based declines in confidence suggest that business is quite worried."
aap

Lahore FM 22:44 GMT May 13, 2008
Syd 22:42 GMT May 13, 2008
no problem Syd.i have read half of the paper!even the ads are not bad!also found how to make my pc a planetarium!thanx!!

goodnight all!

Syd 22:42 GMT May 13, 2008
Lahore FM 22 apologise I didnt mean that , I have just found that site , thought it may be helpful cos I do (smile)

GVI john 22:33 GMT May 13, 2008
GVI economic calendar. For immediate data headlines and analysis of reports, consider our affordable live professional news feed by Thomson International

Lamia Giorgos 22:29 GMT May 13, 2008
Guys, what sites do you use for getting numbers released "on time" (just after the event)?

Thank you.

Lahore FM 22:18 GMT May 13, 2008
Syd,that tells me that my post was rather long!
:-)))

Syd 22:14 GMT May 13, 2008
Lahore FM Good Morning here is a great site to keep in your favourites :-))


Economic Calendar of Events

Lahore FM 22:12 GMT May 13, 2008
data next 24 hrs:

13 May. 08 23:50 Domestic CGPI (MoM) (Japan ) APR 0.50% 0.50%
13 May. 08 23:50 Domestic CGPI (YoY) (Japan ) APR 3.60% 3.90%
13 May. 08 23:50 Current Account Total (Japan ) MAR ?2800.0B ?2467.7B
13 May. 08 23:50 Adjusted Current Account Total (Japan ) MAR ?1950.0B ?1461.1B
13 May. 08 23:50 Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Japan ) MAR ?1233.0B ?1035.3B
13 May. 08 23:50 Loans & Discounts Corp YoY (Japan ) MAR - - 0.30%
14 May. 08 00:30 Westpac Consumer Confidence (Australia ) MAY - - - -
14 May. 08 01:30 Wage Cost Index QoQ (Australia ) 1Q 1.10% 1.10%
14 May. 08 01:30 Wage Cost Index YoY (Australia ) 1Q 4.30% 4.20%
14 May. 08 03:00 Non Resident Bond Holdings (New Zealand ) APR - - 76.80%
14 May. 08 06:40 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (France ) APR 0.40% 0.80%
14 May. 08 06:40 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (France ) APR 3.00% 3.20%
14 May. 08 06:40 CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (France ) APR 0.40% 0.80%
14 May. 08 06:40 CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (France ) APR 3.40% 3.50%
14 May. 08 06:40 CPI Ex Tobacco Index (France ) APR 117.87 117.46
14 May. 08 07:00 European Commission Holds Weekly Meeting (European Union)
14 May. 08 07:30 Homeprices MoM% (Sweden ) APR - - - -
14 May. 08 07:30 EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting (European Union)
14 May. 08 07:30 Industry Capacity (Sweden ) 1Q - - 91.00%
14 May. 08 07:30 Average House Prices (SEK) (Sweden ) APR - - 1.872M
14 May. 08 08:00 CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (Italy ) APR F 0.10% 0.10%
14 May. 08 08:00 CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (Italy ) APR F 3.30% 3.30%
14 May. 08 08:00 CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (Italy ) APR F 0.50% 0.50%
14 May. 08 08:00 CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (Italy ) APR F 3.50% 3.50%
14 May. 08 08:30 Claimant Count Rate (United Kingdom ) APR 2.50% 2.50%
14 May. 08 08:30 Jobless Claims Change (United Kingdom ) APR 0.0k -1.2k
14 May. 08 08:30 Avg Earnings inc bonus 3M/YoY (United Kingdom ) MAR 3.70% 3.70%
14 May. 08 08:30 Avg Earnings ex bonus 3M/YoY (United Kingdom ) MAR 3.80% 3.80%
14 May. 08 08:30 ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) (United Kingdom ) MAR 5.20% 5.20%
14 May. 08 08:30 Manu.Unit Wage Cost (3Ms/YoY) (United Kingdom ) MAR - - 0.80%
14 May. 08 09:00 Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) (European Union) MAR -0.30% 0.30%
14 May. 08 09:00 Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) (European Union) MAR 2.30% 3.10%
14 May. 08 09:30 Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (United Kingdom )
14 May. 08 10:00 Euro-Zone OECD Leading Ind. (European Union) MAR - - - -
14 May. 08 11:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (United States of America ) 9-May - - 15.60%
14 May. 08 11:00 Bloomberg Global Confidence (United States of America ) MAY - - 14.54
14 May. 08 12:30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (United States of America ) APR 0.30% 0.30%
14 May. 08 12:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (United States of America ) APR 0.20% 0.20%
14 May. 08 12:30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (United States of America ) APR 4.00% 4.00%
14 May. 08 12:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (United States of America ) APR 2.40% 2.40%
14 May. 08 12:30 CPI Core Index SA (United States of America ) APR - - 214.176
14 May. 08 12:30 Consumer Price Index NSA (United States of America ) APR 214.73 213.528
14 May. 08 14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (United States of America ) 9-May 2500K 5654K
14 May. 08 14:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (United States of America ) 9-May 550K 794K
14 May. 08 14:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (United States of America ) 9-May 1000K -107K
14 May. 08 14:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (United States of America ) 9-May 0.68% -0.41%
14 May. 08 14:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (United States of America ) 9-May - - 915K
14 May. 08 14:30 API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (United States of America ) 9-May - - 621K
14 May. 08 14:30 API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (United States of America ) 9-May - - 1440K
14 May. 08 14:30 API U.S. Distillate Inventory (United States of America ) 9-May - - -1256K
14 May. 08 22:45 Retail Sales (MoM) (New Zealand ) MAR -0.40% -0.70%

USA BAY 22:08 GMT May 13, 2008
SYD,

HI, Thanks for the video, seems like time to sell the eur/chf next week and also the chf/yen. gt/gl

Syd 21:49 GMT May 13, 2008
DJ -NZD/USD held back by lingering concerns about sharp slowdown in NZ economy, stronger USD, says Bank of New Zealand FX strategist Danica Hampton. Pair last at 0.7648 vs 0.7653 early. Says tomorrow's 1Q retail sales expected to confirm retail slowdown seen in partial indicators. Expects pair to struggle to push above 0.7680 today and "risks skewed in favor of a deeper pullback towards the 0.7500/0.7550 region over the coming weeks."

LKWD JJ 21:41 GMT May 13, 2008
did usd/jpy take out high of may 8 104.92 today? see em see showing high today of 104.91 . if anybody can confirm tia

Lahore FM 21:28 GMT May 13, 2008
Lahore FM 12:40 GMT May 12, 2008
Subject:
short usdjpy 103.82,stops at 104.45 bid.target 102.40.
--
stopped for minus 66 for all practical purposes of the forum as a partial close around 103.35 could not be posted in time.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Lahore FM 17:17 GMT May 5, 2008
Subject:
short june crude again with 50 cent stop.
--
was stopped for minus 50 cents.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Lahore FM 13:28 GMT May 5, 2008
Subject:
short june crude-will see about stops in a while.
--
was stopped for 1 dollar and 50 cents with the above short.

Syd 21:27 GMT May 13, 2008
Housing crisis: Caroline Flint gaffe reveals Government's price fears link

Syd 21:24 GMT May 13, 2008
Nicole Elliott from Mizuho Corporate Bank takes a technical look at the charts for the 10-year Bund, the euro versus the Swiss franc and the Swiss franc versus the yen.LINK

US SW 21:11 GMT May 13, 2008
I have a core postion @ 10288 and selling @ 16050

US SW 21:02 GMT May 13, 2008
BOUGHT...the USD.JPY @ 104.77 and will Sell @ 105.10

YVR MAXXIM 20:30 GMT May 13, 2008
Viewpoint: Nuclear energy is the answer

YVR MAXXIM 20:19 GMT May 13, 2008
plural happy new year

Sydney ACC 20:19 GMT May 13, 2008
US SW 19:59 GMT May 13, 2008
AUDNZD getting settupp for all Time HIGHS!!!

The all-time high is 1.76 in November 1984.

London ADK 20:18 GMT May 13, 2008
US SW - what is the Audi and ERTS?

YVR MAXXIM 20:08 GMT May 13, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 19:18 GMT May 13, 2008
In depth TU obligations obama's tug of war , don't block or up in flames. fwiw

US SW 20:06 GMT May 13, 2008
BOUGHT the Audi acrross the Board...for 8 hour trade

US SW 20:05 GMT May 13, 2008
Applied and ERTS should push the EuroYen to 163 tonight

US SW 20:03 GMT May 13, 2008
Energy Bubble Bolds well for the DJIA

US SW 19:59 GMT May 13, 2008
AUDNZD getting settupp for all Time HIGHS!!!

MVC-IA-USA JC 19:36 GMT May 13, 2008
PAR 19:31 GMT May 13, 2008

MOC??? What is this about the PPT your favorite people.... :)

US SW 19:36 GMT May 13, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 19:18 GMT May 13, 2008

LOL LOL....the Market runs off Data....EOM...

MVC-IA-USA JC 19:35 GMT May 13, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 19:28 GMT May 13, 2008

Thanks Amman......what do you think the numbers will reveal tomorrow for the US CPI? or is it to early to tell? USD bull or bear?

PAR 19:31 GMT May 13, 2008
PPT big specialists in MOC buying .

Amman wfakhoury 19:28 GMT May 13, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 18:35 GMT May 13, 2008
MVC-IA-USA JC 18:24 GMT May 13, 2008
-----
aud.usd in sideways motion.
======
aud.usd is heading twd .9385

dc CB 19:28 GMT May 13, 2008
from Briefing.com about 15 mins ago....

Moody's highlights the persistent poor performance and continued downward rating migration among 2005-2007 vintage second lien mortgage securities. Moody's notes that financial guarantors have significant exposure to second lien RMBS, primarily through guaranties on direct RMBS transactions, and to a lesser extent, through exposure to ABS CDOs, where second lien RMBS securities typically constitute less than 5% of collateral within such CDOs. Moody's loss expectations for this asset class are higher than previously anticipated, owing to worse-than-expected performance trends. This could have material implications for the estimated capital adequacy of financial guarantors most exposed to this risk. In recent announcements of first-quarter 2008 earnings, MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK) both reported material credit impairment losses on ABS CDOs and loss reserve charges on direct RMBS exposures, including second lien securitizations. Moody's said that incurred losses within both firms' direct RMBS and ABS CDO portfolios are now meaningfully higher than the rating agency's prior expected-case loss estimates, elevating existing concerns about capitalization levels relative to the Aaa benchmark. Moody's intends, in the short term, to assess whether worsening performance in this sector is likely to be material for exposed financial guarantors, and will update the market as appropriate.

saopaulo cg 19:26 GMT May 13, 2008
dow starts to fall again, no rally at he end of the day....

PAR 19:21 GMT May 13, 2008
EURO stays strong despite heavy losses at European banks .
ECB is paying the margin calls for the French and German banks .

The Netherlands Purk 19:18 GMT May 13, 2008
I do not look at the news, only to the market. It says that i have to be patient.

US SW 19:16 GMT May 13, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 19:08 GMT May 13, 2008

to say that before CPI is a little werry don't ya think???

The Netherlands Purk 19:08 GMT May 13, 2008
eur/jpy looking for new highs. Patience with u/j....

US SW 19:04 GMT May 13, 2008
clear buy singnal on the AUDNZD target 125

Como Perrie 19:03 GMT May 13, 2008
(Reuters) - Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday increased its forecast for expected losses from home equity loans, citing the deteriorating U.S. housing market.

----


"Losses have risen rapidly in the past two quarters as the housing markets continue to worsen," McGee said at a UBS global financial services conference in New York. "The 1.71 percent loss rate of the first quarter will go higher in the near term, and is expected to exceed our earlier range of 2 to 2.5 percent."



http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSBNG29560220080513

US SW 18:51 GMT May 13, 2008
sorry meant 204 :>)

US SW 18:50 GMT May 13, 2008
Strategy for upcoming data ....go long the GPB/AUD under 207 GL/REALLY GREAT TRADE

Como Perrie 18:45 GMT May 13, 2008
France's biggest retail bank, Credit Agricole, is contemplating asking shareholders for 5.9bn euros (£4.7bn; $9.1bn) to help its financial position.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7397822.stm

US SW 18:39 GMT May 13, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 18:27 GMT May 13, 2008
15010 then Im in...hedge aganst my long...

Amman wfakhoury 18:35 GMT May 13, 2008
MVC-IA-USA JC 18:24 GMT May 13, 2008
-----
aud.usd in sideways motion.

The Netherlands Purk 18:27 GMT May 13, 2008
Just a little bit more patience on the u/j. Already taken a small position now at 10474 short. Lets see.

MVC-IA-USA JC 18:24 GMT May 13, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 18:08 GMT May 13, 2008

Nice call on the G/Y I have to agree with you on that, I am in the U/Y and have been....as usual you have a nice grasp of the market sentiment....

What is your view of the AUD/USD if you have one.....I cant remember if that is a pair that you trade...TIA

US SW 18:17 GMT May 13, 2008
slv sam 16:39 GMT May 13, 2008


so you think the CPI data will be tame???

US SW 18:16 GMT May 13, 2008
Euroyen Looking to test 16260 maybe a buy for DT..on Mojo..

Amman wfakhoury 18:08 GMT May 13, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 19:02 GMT May 12, 2008

trade for your eyes only
------
gbp.jpy buy 203.20 tp 205.00 buy another if decline.
exit all @ 205.00

=======
bought another @ 201.80 ..heading twd 205.00

The Netherlands Purk 17:27 GMT May 13, 2008
e/u under influence of the e/j. range not that bad.
aud/usd and e/chf best trades for me today. no murmers today means 100-150 range.

Sydney Alimin 17:02 GMT May 13, 2008
Yellen is stating the obvious, same old same old...nothing new from these speakers

slv sam 16:39 GMT May 13, 2008
I am going to short euryen at 1.64!GT

US SW 16:37 GMT May 13, 2008
carry clearly overbought here sell for 30 pips

US SW 16:36 GMT May 13, 2008
EuroYen looking Toppy here

madrid 16:27 GMT May 13, 2008
Ohhhhh, us/yen back to the hight of the day , time to short LARGE at 104.70 the whole mini and demo ac

8-)

madrid 16:25 GMT May 13, 2008
yes...Something like that !!

8-)

London NYAM 16:15 GMT May 13, 2008
A bit like a Unicorn or a Pixie perhaps?
Unless the animal comes from Russia or the Gulf of course.

madrid 16:11 GMT May 13, 2008
PAR 16:09 GMT May 13, 2008

Power to the people 8-)

John Lennon - Power To The People ---->

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wos-dDxpJlQ

PAR 16:11 GMT May 13, 2008
If crude goes to $200, rather stupid to stop buying at $ 125 ?

Sydney Alimin 16:10 GMT May 13, 2008
must admit that though it is very hard picking direction, it has been a nice volatility in all markets this week

madrid 16:09 GMT May 13, 2008
London NYAM 16:01 GMT May 13, 2008

yes ...it is a kind of tireless PPT. A unique animal of its kind.
8-)O

With so much money floating around, it has to be put at work !
0.50 % interest rates in Japan
2.00 % interest rates in the USA

LOl

PAR 16:09 GMT May 13, 2008
Us politicians getting nervous about too high oil prices and us inflation getting out of control.


DJ US Senate OKs Amendment To Halt Strategic Petroleum Reserve Fill

London NYAM 16:01 GMT May 13, 2008
PAR 15:58 GMT//Again?

PAR 15:58 GMT May 13, 2008
PPT getting ready for NY afternoon stock buying action. Looks like US shares will have very strong close aided by yen carries.

manila tom 15:41 GMT May 13, 2008
parity barrier is gone, usdcad can now venture lower levels with ease IMHO, crude making new high is also helping in a big way

saopaulo cg 15:33 GMT May 13, 2008
looks that best days of spring are over for equities. stox cant rally even with a better retail sales number. S&P cant stay above 1400, we are definitively in a bear market.IMVHO

manila tom 15:33 GMT May 13, 2008
slv sam 15:23 GMT May 13, 2008

i think ML is right, it has tried topside several times and failed everytime, making lower highs and lower lows, now this is the stubborn defense at that parity figure which prevents lower levels

Jerusalem ML 15:28 GMT May 13, 2008
slv
with due respect, i dont think so.
ominous signs for $/cad
could be swift...

slv sam 15:23 GMT May 13, 2008
ML/
must visit 1.0070 first imo!GT

Jerusalem ML 15:18 GMT May 13, 2008
usd/cad downside clearly taking hold.
.9950 next

HK Kevin 14:56 GMT May 13, 2008
OK, let's shoot USD/JPY down. Short at 104.64 earlier,

Gen dk 14:15 GMT May 13, 2008
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. John Niraj 13:58 GMT May 13, 2008
i've been long usd/jpy and aud/jpy since last night..

HK Kevin 13:51 GMT May 13, 2008
USD/JPY usually made its day's high / low at 14:00 gmt. Hopefully, I am waiting for the next hr to shoot it down.

Muscat Ali 13:50 GMT May 13, 2008
May I please have the views on GBP/CAD.Thankyou.

St. John Niraj 13:46 GMT May 13, 2008
SWEEEEET thank you

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT May 13, 2008
St. John Niraj 13:42 / Tools -> Market Data -> Live FX rates

104.5ish atm, on offer

slv sam 13:45 GMT May 13, 2008
eurusd 5385 today imvho!GT

Amsterdam Purk 13:44 GMT May 13, 2008
104,52 53 52

Have fun Niraj

Global-View Forex Blog 13:44 GMT May 13, 2008
For US Treasury It's Show Me Time on the Dollar (FXA)

St. John Niraj 13:42 GMT May 13, 2008
I'm at work and cannot access real time quotes
can I please get a quote for USD/JPY?

thank you

Maribor 13:39 GMT May 13, 2008
EURUSD - my guess will stop falling around 1,543 for return to 1,5548, but may also continue to 1,5352 target(will reach there in any case).
GBPCHF will go under 2,02 within ~48 hours...
USDJPY overshoot 104,14...sell blips.
-------------
SW, I think 1,25 is not valid target for AUDNZD - 1,09 is(may take months).

PAR 13:24 GMT May 13, 2008
Euro Races To Weekly High Versus Yen Amid Increased Risk Appetite
5/13/2008 9:20 AM ET

PAR 13:15 GMT May 13, 2008
JBIC to use Japan FX reserves for dlr procurement


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST24257020080513

empoli ab 12:50 GMT May 13, 2008
closed cable short at 1,9480 earlier, long now eurgbp 0,7942 tp 0,8040 sl 0,7850

Tokyo 12:39 GMT May 13, 2008
161.31 short closed 1/2 at 161.25.had clsoed 1/2 earlier at 160.70 but could not post.

GVI john 11:45 GMT May 13, 2008

Syd 11:27 GMT May 13, 2008
Number of home sales fall to the lowest rate since records began in the 1970s
LINK

Como Perrie 11:26 GMT May 13, 2008
other series of losses published today. Credit Agricole the bigger ones.

singapore td 11:08 GMT May 13, 2008
short gbpusd 1.9480, limit another one at 1.9522, stop all above today's high

Syd 10:53 GMT May 13, 2008
(Dow Jones)--A stable rate of inflation is indispensable to achieve maximum sustainable economic growth, healthy labor markets and financial stability, Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Tuesday.

In remarks at the Global Interdependence Center conference in Paris, Pianalto said that she currently finds herself "in a challenging environment," as in the U.S., the headline consumer price index is rising at 4%, and the core CPI, which takes out food and energy prices, is rising at 2.4%. The core price measures in the United States are rising somewhat faster than I would prefer, and inflation presents a key risk to my outlook," she also said, but "the Federal Reserve's policy strategy remains compatible with a low and stable inflation rate," she noted.

Pianalto also said central bankers share the common responsibility of keeping the purchasing power of their currencies stable.

"Globalization has not curtailed the ability of monetary policymakers to achieve price stability," she said, drawing a distinction between relative price pressures and inflation.

"Inflation refers to deterioration in the purchasing power of money. It occurs when a central bank creates more money than the public wants to hold. The result is an eventual rise in all prices and wages. And as long as this disparity between the supply and demand for money persists, prices and wages will keep rising," she said.

Jerusalem ML 10:47 GMT May 13, 2008
Hi all

Eur/yen on the downside, 159 eyed
Eur/usd on the downside, 1.53 eyed
Gold 850

Syd 10:47 GMT May 13, 2008
*DJ ECB's Noyer: Inflation Pressures At Work In Most Of World

Brisbane Flip 10:45 GMT May 13, 2008
was that written by 14year old high school economic student on work experience with Dow Jones?? -LOL

Syd 10:43 GMT May 13, 2008
(Dow Jones)--Rather than cutting interest rates, shouldn't the Bank of England be raising them?

After abysmal inflation releases during the past two sessions, that notion might not be quite so far fetched as it seems.
Obviously, the reason the Bank has been on an easing course has had everything to do with the global credit crunch since last summer - the U.K. economy is going the way of a parachutist tied to an anchor. All in all, the inflation numbers are "simply horrific," in the words of BNP Paribas economist Alan Clarke. So, does this mean the Bank will have to hike in the teeth of an economic slowdown. In other words, overleveraged consumers aren't likely to get much shelter from the central bank as the economic storm starts to break.
What else can the Bank do? Well, some people in the markets are suggesting the Treasury could increase its inflation target and widen the band, say 150 basis points either side of 2.5%, with the argument that the current bout of inflation isn't being domestically generated. After all, core inflation, that is less food and energy, is still below target. But even the bits of inflation that don't include the bits of inflation that are moving up are still moving up. Core inflation, too, has been rising.

Stockholm 10:30 GMT May 13, 2008
Hey guys! any view on EuroDollar after this afternoon's figures?

eu kaprikorn 10:09 GMT May 13, 2008
hourly EURUSD -- I must admit your points are well positioned given the
200 MA -- 1.5457 and
100 MA below -- 1.5435

slv sam 10:07 GMT May 13, 2008
eurusd: target 1.5335imo, enjoy the ride!GT

warsaw TOMi 10:05 GMT May 13, 2008
short aud squared .9404.

warsaw TOMi 10:04 GMT May 13, 2008
long eur again 5457 stop 5437.

GVI john 09:46 GMT May 13, 2008
GVI economic calendar. For immediate data headlines and analysis of reports, consider our affordable live professional news feed by Thomson International

			Calendar
			Quicklinks-Sources
GMT			Tue May 13, 2008	cons	prev	actual
08:30	UK	Mar	CPI (y/y)	+2.6%	+2.5%	+3.0%
08:30	UK	Mar	RPI-X (y/y)	+3.6%	+3.5%	+4.0%
12:30	US	Apr	Retail Sales	-0.2%	+0.2%
12:30	US	Apr	Retail Sales x-autos	+0.2%	+0.1%
14:00	US	Mar	Bus Inv	+0.4%	+0.6%
			Calendar
			Quicklinks-Sources
GMT			Wed May 14, 2008	cons	prev	actual
23:50	JA	Mar	Current Account y/y	-14.2%	+2.9%
23:50	JA	Mar	Trade	n/a	-6.6%
23:50	JA	Apr	CGPI y/y	+3.6%	+3.9%
08:30	UK	Mar	Avg Earn y/y	+3.7%	+3.7%	n/a
09:00	EZ	Mar	Ind Prod y/y	+2.3%	+3.1%
09:30	UK		BOE Inflation Report	n/a	n/a	n/a
12:30	US	Apr	CPI (m/m)	+0.3%	+0.3%
12:30	US	Apr	CPI (x-F&E) m/m	+0.2%	+0.2%

manila tom 09:41 GMT May 13, 2008
empoli ab 09:37 GMT May 13, 2008

thanks ab, it feels 'safer' being on the short side too on this one

empoli ab 09:37 GMT May 13, 2008
manila tom 09:33 GMT May 13, 2008


Hy Tom think we have first to overcome this year bottom at ard 1,9350 than round fig like 1,90 cud be a magnet.
As u can see from my previous post i bet on that direction as today also with a so big upward surprise in CPI we didn get the rebound seen yesterday with ppi. Thks and gl

warsaw TOMi 09:35 GMT May 13, 2008
2/4 off short aud .9434 rest stop to be
2/4 off long usdcad 10075 rest stop to 10050.

MLT PA 09:34 GMT May 13, 2008
OVERVIEW
Opening price action of the week is a long way from conforming to the pattern we envisaged – the USD remains under pressure against all but the JPY and CHF, sterling has fallen on weak activity data rather than rallied on high inflation out-turns while the S&P500 has bounced from a test of the uptrend from its March low. We do not expect this scenario to weather the various data challenges ahead. More generally, FX has become even more difficult than usual over recent weeks as a number of the correlations and relationships we have become used become unstable. The causes and implications of rising oil prices are a case in point. Until recently it seemed broadly accepted that rising oil prices were symptomatic of strong global growth rather than supply constraints. A demand pull explanation meant their rise was not seen as threatening the prospects for further economic expansion. For example from the start of 2005 until the end of 2007 the correlation coefficients between levels of the front NYMEX WTI crude oil future was 0.78 and 0.57 respectively for the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index and the S&P500. Since August last year, while the EM/Oil correlation still holds positive, the correlation between the S&P500 and oil has turned negative. This reflects the relative weights of global financial institutions in the indices but also hints that rising oil prices are now seen as a drag on developed marked growth. In other words growth in the emerging world, via its impact on commodity prices, is threatening to “crowd out” growth in the advanced economies. In line with this theme many commentators have used an oil price drop as post-move justification for yesterday’s equity rally. The change in tone is important as it suggests that the days of“de-coupling” holding water as a bullish theme for all risky assets are over. Going forward advanced economy equity markets may well look for emerging markets to slow– most probably via policy tightening to curb inflation – in order to accommodate growth in the advanced economies. Something else that is threatening to turn on its head is the relationship between inflation surprises and the exchange rate. The textbooks have always been clear that higher than expected inflation suggests, ceteris paribus, a depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. In practice it has paid to buy a currency where inflation surprises to the upside on the premise that the news raises the odds of additional, unanticipated, monetary tightening. This reaction function depends, however, on the near total credibility of the commitment of monetary policymakers to keep inflation, on average, close to their pre-announced target. Policymakers (and traders) should be alert to signs that this is changing either in the advanced or emerging economies. Markets may just start to punish currencies where real interest rates are perceived as incompatible with the inflation target. All this makes for a much choppier FX market where the big picture of USD weakness is supplanted by weakness