Dollar Threatens a Plunge but Fundamentals Could Prevent a Renewed Bear Trend LINK
Australia's RBA Edey Says Bank Loan Losses Have Peaked
Loan losses for Australian banks arising from the global economic downturn have peaked and financial conditions are strong and improving, said Malcolm Edey, assistant governor (financial system) at the Reserve Bank of Australia, on Monday.Edey said that while losses for banks in countries like the U.S. and in Europe were still rising, the situation in Australia is far superior."In Australia, the position is a lot better than that," he said. "The evidence now is that bank loan losses have peaked, profitability is improving, and the condition of the financial sector...is (also) improving," Edey said at the Cards & Payments Australasia 2010 Conference in Sydney.
LA BV 23:36 GMT March 14, 2010Reply BuyUSDJPY Entry: 90.40 Target: 91.00 or higher Stop: 89.95
Looking to trade long side ahead of boj meeting.
HK c 21:57 GMT March 14, 2010Reply SellEURAUD Entry: 1.5002 Target: 1.4800 Stop: 1.5100
This might be a nice entry level for a position trade.
Lahore FM 21:56 GMT March 14, 2010 Thanx John,your kind support truly appreciated!
GVI Forex john 21:54 GMT March 14, 2010 We are all thinking about you and your family and friends in these unsettled times.
Lahore FM 21:51 GMT March 14, 2010 :)) i know John.early reminder might help!
GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT March 14, 2010 FM- thank you for reminding me to update times in the calendar. In about six months they all will be fixed! lol
Lahore FM 21:33 GMT March 14, 2010Reply for fx purposes the summer is here with clcoks adjusted back and usa primary data releases at 1230 gmt rather than 1330 gmt.
Syd21:24 GMT March 14, 2010Reply (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers are likely to agree on Monday on a mechanism for aiding Greece financially, if it is required, but will leave out any sums until Athens asks for them, an EU source said on Saturday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62C0XT20100313
GVI Forex john 20:48 GMT March 14, 2010 New COT charts on Futures Forum including Oil and Gold Charts COT Charts Feel free to comment on that Forum.
Lahore FM 20:48 GMT March 14, 2010 thanx st,am holding out.adversity brings out the best in us.
FM--was reading all about the suicide bomber attacks there last week and hoping that you were well...certainly puts things in proper perspective when those things happen...stay safe & good trades to you.
LA BV 20:43 GMT March 14, 2010 tku
Lahore FM 20:38 GMT March 14, 2010 LA BV, 1.3776 eurusd,90.79 usdjpy,1.0571 usdchf.1.5162 gbpusd,0.9184 audusd,1.0171 usdcad.
LA BV 20:34 GMT March 14, 2010Reply Can someone post early spot rates pls. tia
GVI Forex Blog 20:04 GMT March 14, 2010Reply Risk sentiment improved slightly on Friday night. Boosts to sentiment were the US retail sales report beat expectations (before negative revisions), although consumer confidence slipped, and rumours
PAR18:36 GMT March 14, 2010Reply Michael Lewis’ Big Short an unsettling experience
Henry Paulson didn’t see it coming. Nor did Timothy Geithner foresee the meltdown of the financial markets. According to Standard & Poor’s President Deven Sharma, testifying before Congress in the fall of 2008: “Virtually no one – be they homeowners, financial institutions, ratings agencies, regulators, or investors – anticipated what is occurring.”
Why? Perhaps “it took a certain kind of person to see the ugly facts and react to them – to discern, in the profile of the beautiful young lady, the face of an old witch,” says Michael Lewis, author of numerous best-sellers including 1980s Wall Street memoir Liar’s Poker and now The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine (W.W. Norton, $27.95).
Lewis’ new volume is an entertaining and very edifying look at several such insightful people — the tiny handful of investors “for whom the trade became an obsession.” These were unusual, “almost by definition odd” folks, soon to make big money on the cataclysm: There is Steve Eisman, the former Oppenheimer analyst who regularly demonstrated a prodigious “talent for offending people,” notably in a tendency to trash subprime originators as early as 1997
dc CB 16:41 GMT March 14, 2010 Basic explanation of what Lehman did in the Repo.
Also, as an aside, it should be pretty clear why Eliot Spitzer was taken out when he was taken out (for his inability to keep his zipper up - a fact known for years), only to be replaced by a half blind idiot.
GVI Forex Jay 16:27 GMT March 14, 2010Reply As you noticed, we have tried to start weekend discussions on selected topics with limited response so far.
Our goal is to create discussions outside the Forex Forum (e.g. Open Forum, Leanring Forum) on topics that interest our members. Rather than guessing at what might interest you and if you would be interested in such discussions at all, we would appreciate some feedback on this idea and any topics you could suggest. Thanks in advance for your feedback.
Tonbridge AL 11:19 GMT March 14, 2010 Repo 105 becomes illegal only if they can prove bond washing
This methodology of repo has been used even back in the early 80s especially then by the Japanese and noone ever proved any wrong doing then. It falls into the camp of morally wrong not necessarily illegal
PAR11:16 GMT March 14, 2010Reply It's a very damaging report and certainly is something that is going to be carefully scrutinized by federal prosecutors," said Robert Mintz, a former Justice Department prosecutor who is a private defense attorney.
Now, thanks to the work by Valukas, Repo 105 has entered the pantheon of names of vehicles for accounting chicanery, along with Enron's Jedi, Chewco and Raptor partnerships and the "Buco Nero" (black hole) offshore account stashed away by the fallen Italian dairy giant Parmalat. In the sagas of those two companies, the role of the accounting firms was central.
Did other companies engulfed by the financial meltdown deploy similar accounting tricks?
"I think what Lehman was doing was way out there and quite misleading, and against the financial reporting and accounting rules," said Lynn Turner, a former chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission. "I don't think there were many others, if there were others at all, that were doing this. I think the rules Lehman violated are straightforward."
Even members of Lehman's accounting staff, in e-mails unearthed by the examiner, called the Repo 105 concoctions an "accounting gimmick" and "a lazy way of managing the balance sheet as opposed to legitimately meeting ... targets at quarter end."
In the meltdown's wake, Justice and the SEC launched wide-ranging investigations of companies across the financial services industry, believed to include insurer American International Group Inc. and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as Lehman. A year and a half after the financial crisis struck, charges haven't yet come in most of the probes.
Syd10:26 GMT March 14, 2010Reply The dollar fell Friday, touching a one-month low against the euro, on concerns that U.S. monetary policy may stay loose for a while.
The dollar slumped 0.9% against the U.K. pound and the Swiss franc, while the euro rose as high as $1.3796, its highest level since Feb. 11. The greenback also plunged to a 19-month low against the Canadian dollar, hitting C$1.0157 and bringing the prospect of parity between the two currencies one step closer.
In a day of mixed U.S. economic data, the White House confirmed San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen, who favors keeping policy loose and interest rates low to help the economy recovery, is the "top contender" to succeed Donald Kohn as Fed vice chair kept the greenback under pressure. Kohn retires in June.
Investors will be watching the Federal Open Market Committee's rate-setting meeting Tuesday for any clues on the future path of policy in the statement following the rate decision. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged near zero and make few changes to the key part of its statement: the commitment to leave rates on hold for a while.
"With some of the other uncertainties in the world, it might not be a time for dramatic change in wording," said Jonathan E. Lewis, founding principal of Samson Capital Advisors, which has $6.5 billion under management.
Late afternoon Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.3762 from $1.3679 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y90.50 from Y90.56, while the euro was at Y124.57 from Y123.86. The U.K. pound was at $1.5188 from $1.5063. The dollar was at CHF1.0591 from CHF1.0688.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 79.818 from 80.282.
As a result, Deutsche Bank's PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish exchange-traded fund was up 0.63% from late Thursday, while its PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish was down 0.64%. The two exchange-traded funds are based on Deutsche Bank currency futures indexes, whose composition mirrors that of ICE's Dollar Index. Data released by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission late afternoon Friday indicate "sentiment towards the euro is still very negative," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
Net speculative bets against the euro rose to a fresh record level in the week ended Tuesday, while bets against the U.K. pound fell for a second straight week, according to a Scotia analysis of the weekly Commitments of Traders Report.
Still, Friday's gains could indicate that some of these euro bearish bets have been reversed as investors reassess the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Recent dollar gains have been driven by the expectation the Fed could start to tighten policy ahead of the European Central Bank as the U.S. economic recovery picks up speed.
Yellen has been a strong supporter of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's policies to fight the deep economic downturn. She has also been a key advocate of the Fed's policy of near-zero interest rates and a massive expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, even as some regional Fed officials advocate for pulling back the monetary stimulus more quickly.
Data published Friday did little to clarify the state of the economy: Retail sales were stronger than expected in February, but consumer sentiment dipped.
"The consumer sentiment data put the dollar under pressure as it suggested a rockier road to recovery," said Joe Manimbo, a currency analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.
The rally in European currencies began overnight on the back of encouraging economic data in the euro zone and rising optimism that the worst of Greece's sovereign debt problems is over.
Data showed that industrial output in the 16-nation euro zone rose 1.7% in January, posting its strongest monthly gain on record in January, fueled by energy production as the region was hit by harsh winter weather.
Speculation that a financial package is in the works for Greece increased on the back of several reports out of Europe that France and Germany had agreed to a bailout package for Greece.
But in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said no such bailout plan would emerge if Greece does not default on its debt. "For there to be a bailout, there has to be a default," she said.
Syd08:16 GMT March 14, 2010Reply -China Premier Wen Jiabao said Sunday that if the economic recovery falters the costs will be very great.
The timing of when to act and when to hold off on changing policy is essential, Wen said, adding it is very hard to strike a balance on China's policy goals.He restated that China will stick to an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. He said China will keep interest rates at a reasonable level, maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity, and properly manage inflation expectations.He said China will put its focus on boosting development in rural areas because that is key for the economy.Wen said agriculture is key to growth this year and in managing inflation expectations.He said the issues of inflation, the rural-urban income gap, and corruption may affect the stability of political power in China.Wen made his remarks at a news conference following the end of China's 10-day session of the National People's Congress, China's legislature.
Hamburg 98ccm 05:49 GMT March 14, 2010 According to purely technical research for longer term trading the EUR/JPY is a BUY right now. Combine it with fundamental research and you come up with a confirmation of the buy signal.
Conservative lead over Labour falls to two year low
David Cameron suffers a fresh blow today with a new opinion poll showing the Conservative lead over Labour falling to a two-year low and suggesting the party will fall well short of winning an outright majority at the general election.
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