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Forex Forum Archive for 01/24/2003

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Atlanta RT 23:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
melb -- must admit not sure what you mean. What exactly is 'cable'?

melb th 23:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
AB// Thanks for your contributions. I find them very usefull at times. Who is EU's Solbes exactly so I can gauge the significance of his comments?

melb th 23:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Atlanta RT 23:41
Possibly. But wouldnt shorting cable itself be more tradeable?

hk ab 23:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The longer I stay, the better I felt.
We have long terms viewer like bc,
then we have v. cool TA viies, Raden, Qindex and NoodyG
And then, we have many friends here to back up, I just want to say thanks to friends like FBF, John, Jon, road.....
Just now, what bc said yesterday hit the nail again, Solbes comments on "rate" of eur rises. better scale down a bit.
Good trade to all.

Atlanta RT 23:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Also must admit I like the CHF/JPY no matter what re: EUR. The USD/CAD is fishing for a bottom. May be a while.

Atlanta RT 23:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I expect the EUR/USD to sell off a bit next week too. BUT I have ideas that EUR/GPB and EUR/JPY will stand strong. Hmmmm?

hk ab 23:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Does anyone have an exact time when Solbes worried eur rise last night? Big thanks!

hk ab 23:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
John, congrat. to the geese game. Finally 1.52 is done.

Los Angeles erik 22:34 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NC JJM 21:51 GMT January 22, 2003:
Jay must be busy he didnt answer my email. if you have time you can contact me at erik1974@yahoo.com, thx have a good weekend

Toronto BA 22:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   

All is well,Andras- making some money on the Euro, but just in a mini account-

Getting better at the game however-
I got caught several times waiting for the EURO correction that never came-
Now I am afraid to go against the trend-

Should take profits soon I guess-
Off to play hockey- have a great weekend all-

Pecs Andras 22:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hi Brian
Hope you are doing well. I am short cable from 6330 and holding it for the weekend, or even more. I predict a sharp fall of EUR and cable next week.

Toronto BA 22:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   

Pecs I agree- Raden is a master-

I have found it easier to make money in this game with a longer term trend in mind-
I got killed trying to play against the trend-

Pecs Andras 22:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I told you before. This guy, Raden Mas is incredible, even if now and then he is not right. But at least 80% of the time he is right. And you guys all know that if you are 80% right in this market, and your money management is OK, then you can make a fortune in no time!
Hats off to Raden again this week. In addition to his DOW call, look at the top of EUR and cable. For cable his call was 6360 a few hours ago. In my system cable top is 6359. For EUR his call was 0860. Top in my platform is 51. These numbers speak for themselves. So much for those of the very few of the people in this forum who recently had the cheek to post some sarcastic rather than critical or argumentative comments on his trading ideas. Not to mention that they have never posted anything constructive yet either.
Keep up the good work Raden, and thanks for all of us here.

rivesaltes leg 21:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:09 GMT January 24, 2003
I think Dow still get down at 8115 and Dax still get down too at 2665.
Raden, you're incredible...low on the Dow 8112!

uk 21:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
yep, euro climbed the stair up here, next week is down the elevator!

la GOLDD 21:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
thanks jk, same to you, when a currency as gainned so much
i tend to play the contra trade for the retracement. its very
dangerous i admit, but i have to try and make a living. gl all.

Burnaby thr 21:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I am long $/chf at 1.3515 also

Helsinki iw 21:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Nothing to back it up, but think this might have been it. Will do
some studing during w/e, but for now I would say we just saw
the top in EUR/USD.

NYC jk 21:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
you are a brave person la Goldd, standing in the path of the runaway train. good luck to you and a good weekend to everyone.

la GOLDD 21:10 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
thanks jjm, for info. could be helpfull for my long $/chf.

la GOLDD 21:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
long 1$/chf @ 1.3515. looking for a retracement to 1.3570,
s/l below the figure. gl all.

NC JJM 21:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
eu's solbes just said something about being concerned about pace of euro's rise vs. the usd....fwiw

Gen dk 21:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 20:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA 3 20:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Goldman Sachs economists, saying U.S. budget outlook continues to deteriorate, say their estimate of a $300 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2003 "looks somewhat optimistic at this point." rts

nyc 20:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
DJ FXAnalytics Focus: Fed Rate Cuts Go With Gulf War
The Fed funds rate is already at a 40-plus-year low. Monetary policy is accommodative. The Fed is of the view risks are balanced after the December half-point rate cut and confident the economy will recover. And fiscal policy is being primed for accommodation with tax cuts and spending hikes. So why should the Fed ease?

It is all about sentiment. Every single Fed forecast and remark on the economic outlook mentions geopolitical risk depressing sentiment and generating uncertainty. The threat of war with Iraq is having a very real impact on U.S. asset prices. Bonds are rallying and stocks and the dollar are falling. Investors sense greater economic risk for the U.S. as it makes a case for war with Iraq come censored or high water. It should be clear to all this week that the financial markets and public were finally brought up to speed with where the Bush administration was on war with Iraq. Bush strategy is not brinkmanship. It is not a strategy dependent on UN and allied support. War will happen and happen sooner than later short of Saddam exiting voluntarily or involuntarily. Surely the Fed too is now up to speed on war and will have to take it into consideration when it meets January 28-
So we think an "easing bias" emerges Wednesday and a rate cut between meetings (next FOMC is March 18) following the outbreak of war. Call it an option on growth that can be taken back quickly just as the December cut was defined. And one cut could become two or more depending on how long the war lasts, the costs and what it triggers in the way of future terrorist attacks

nyc 20:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US Stocks Fall Further, DJIA Hits Three-Month Low
NEW YORK
U.S. stocks are down sharply Friday with the major market indexes sustaining their biggest single-day percentage drops of 2003.

The selling has accelerated as the session close draws near, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching 8114.90, its lowest point in three months.

The White House and Iraq are tossing verbal firepower at one another, each side intensifying the political posturing ahead of the U.N.'s report on Iraq's weapons program, which is due Monday.

Sinking profit projections can't be helping matters. On Jan. 1, analysts expected earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to rise 14.2% during 2003, but that target now sits at 13.2%, according to Thomson First Call.

"There's nothing positive out there," said Todd Leone, head of listed trading with SG Cowen Securities Inc. "The only positive thing you could look for is if the war starts or Saddam leaves," referring to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

nyc joe 20:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
THANKS

EU 20:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
C*M*C EUR/USD high 1.0849

nyc joe 20:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone have the high in the EURO pls TIA

nyc 20:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
DJIA 8,124.70 -244.77
FTSE 100 3,613.80 -8.40
Nasdaq 1,342.26 -46.01
S&P 500 860.87 -26.47

nyc joe 19:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Euro high gang pls TIA

Toronto bomoh 19:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
No USD longs here yet. A weak close on Monday provides me with the next window of opportunity to assess the buy for a blip up. Timing is everything.

c-town bas 19:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
"hey fat tony" what bas rock say about shortin swissy? i hope you in

Toronto Erik 19:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
CAD...fly to the moon why don't ya ..argggg! =) =)

SFO al 19:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Singapore NewKid,
NICE if you don't need to pay this portofolio with USD @ today prices
GT & GL!

singapore NewKid 19:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
EUR, AUS, GBP and a touch of CHF to be in the portfolio will be nice ....any comment?

nyc joe 19:23 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
cable just beginning to show some power kid
think 1.66-1.69 in the cards

singapore NewKid 19:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
amazing cable strength...comment?

ny 19:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
DJ US To Warn All US Citizens Abroad; Be Ready To Leave

Karachi 19:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
what more evidence do leaders of "Old Europe" want, saddams son admitting he is a terrorist.

nyc joe 18:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
What are u saying Karachi?

LA ARTOFYEN 18:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The only thing we can say once Bush's troops arrive on Saddam's family compound is that it just won't be U day.

Porto PJT 18:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
SNB's Gehrig : would sell CHF if necessary .. has 'not exhausted' rate cut leeway .. won't reach 1.5-2% growth for several

my bank info.

Porto PJT 18:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
news:SNB, sell chf if necessary.

yvr maxxim 18:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I only play 100 lots all the time, bought euro at 107.60 and sold at 108.40 for a profit of 8000 US. Find that playing with anything less is for the birds. GL/GT & happy weekend to you all :-)

Karachi 18:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
An Airbus A310 into the Eiffel tower.

ny 18:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
yes and how is he going to do that except with the chemical and biological weapons he says he doesnt have . What a joke!!!!

Los Angeles erik 18:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
pd cumino: just wondering, where are you from? pd = pudong? :)

IRAQ Terrorist killer 18:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
CNN - President Saddam Hussein's eldest son Uday has warned the United States of huge losses and a calamity worse than the September 11 attacks if it goes ahead with plans to invade Iraq.

what more evidence do leaders of "Old Europe" want, saddams son admitting he is a terrorist.

london m 18:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thanks Pd Cumino (sorry for spelling mistake of your name) also Porto PJT, the $Yen is the king of the currency beasts. I generally follow the trend, but have been unsuccessful twice this week. I am hoping its third time lucky i.e. down to 117.2. Appreciate your wise comments on this forum, gl + gts

Porto PJT 18:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
pd cumino, thanks for that, in forex we are always in doubt specially with usd jpy.I suppose the best analisys i can do is in on the daily and weekly charts, where is pointing, if i try to see something on other time frame im easily burned.Not much skill.

pd cumino 18:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
London. I haven't micro views. But a rule. I read short-term tech of about 10 good analists. If they are 50/50 or so I do nothing. If they are about all in the same direction (and just I want to trade in this manner, which is not my style)then I take the opposite direction.

london m 18:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hi Pd Pudino, whats your micro view of the $Yen i.e. next 3/5 days? tia.

pd cumino 18:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Porto. I don't post tech.analyisis becuse I think in this forum there are sufficient ones and someone (could) agree to heard something different. If your view is USD-JPY at 115.15 (it's possible, I have only said that some dealers, who don't want search a pick in EUR-USD could (could, not must) switch from E/$ to E/J through $/J estimating the possible interventon as a cushion). If your view is 115 or so and if you think:
1) That it is a level from which usd could go higher or
2) This is a level, if broken, from which USD could go very lower (so you are now short spot USD) but you fear you will be worrying at that point because apossible intervention, or because some USD relief about war risk:
You could buy a USDCALL JPYPUT STRIKE=117.50 with KI at 115.50.
2months costs around 0.40%USD, 3months 0.65%USD.
If you are more sure of your view, or if you want a 0 cost structure you can sell a plain vanilla USDCALL 121.80 Strike 2 or 3 months in accordance with the buying.

Gen dk 18:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ny 18:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Helsinki: I totally agree with that and have been saying that for some time. Natural for participants to try to pick tops , and look for the big reversal gain . This has been a slow methodical trend which does not show signs of tiring except on the most short term basis . This will not change until geopolitical enviroment changes, and do not see that for awhile

Hong Kong Ahe 17:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
road 17:28 -- Nope, I mean 116.64. For position traders, the key is 117.20/30. Once it breaks 117.18, it will send to 116.48/68 and then to 115.89, and then to 114.48 (another key for 109/115 district). It needs to watch the momentum of the market and how the big players are being playing at the top level (that their strategies).

Helsinki iw 17:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The Euro has stayed very strong and further strength can
still be seen, although it looks very overbought on intraday
basis now. All the market has to do to unwind the situation
however is trade sideways for a few hours.The 1,0900/20
level should offer very serious resistance and I would be very
surprised to see EUR/USD trade right through there on the
first try. In fact, it could very well turn there and head alot
lower, but that is for us to find out. Strong trends can stay
overbought for a very long time so top-picking could be a
very expensive strategy.

beijing road 17:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Ahe, you meant 117.64 or 116.64 pls? 117.64 is my downmove "trigger" in daily chart.

Gen dk 17:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beijing road 17:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Ahe, thanks a lot.

Bel Air KK 17:22 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
AB - you are right, I was quoted 59 and took it, though screen showed 56.

GL & GT.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:18 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road, watch the GBPJPY as boyscout of USDJPY. Now, GBPJPY is still in good level to drive from 192 to 188. Once it moves, it will send USDJPY to level 114.65. Don't long USDJPY if level reaches 116.64. You'll be caught. Most big players are now looking for USDJPY at 109. Stare at GBPJPY. But do take in mind and don't counter trade in the coming week. Above is for position traders. IMO! Good trades and good luck.

Porto PJT 17:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
pd cumino, i am tented to agree with you, but the large head and shoulders formation we see on weekly chart shows a test on the neck at 115,5 is the most probable direction.Maybe is time to buy options put and call, your view on that please.

hk ab 17:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
KK am afraid that mkt will not let you to take such a fantastic level easily.

Bel Air KK 17:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Another good short term r/r trading the range for Usd/Yen:

Buy Usd/Yen @ 55, s/l @ 35, t/p @ 118.00

Cheers

moskow kolyvanov 17:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
eur/usd like a peak mount

midtown the_crusher 17:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
intruder captured on White House grounds MSNBC

Spotforex NY 17:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
MSNBC notes that an intruder captured on White House grounds --I suspect an anti-war protester.....

LA3 16:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone could tell the low on the USD/DX today ? TIA

beijing road 16:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
117.64 not 116.64

beijing road 16:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
For me, if usd/jpy 116.64(sell) gives away, probably it will explode.

midtown the_crusher 16:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
fireworks below 117.65 usd yen methinks

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Surabaya Joss,
Buy more Gold pls.GL & GT

SHENZHEN Laowen 16:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Road,glad to see you here! Just came back from Europe.
The crazy Euro hindered me from buying many things at this
time...

Think we will soon see $/Yen @ 108,and even 102;Eur/$ @1.18 even 1.26,GBP/$ 1.70m even 2.0(!).

At those lvls,I think it will be big time to reverse trade.

Now it is smart to follow the trends with cautious s/l...

No position now,but seeking for some entries...

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
LA saint3,
Sorry about forget for USD/JPY friend..
USD/JPY will down to 117.10 or 116.35 welcome !

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Beijing Road,
I agree with you..crazy market welcome today.

Chicago Irish 16:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Tirana ex-Bolshevik:Re Ex-communist forum.Thought Albania was trying to join EU?,Once you're in you will feel right at home.

beijing road 16:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Laowen, welcome back. Join the crazy market.

pd cumino 16:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Abhu dhabi. As i said yesterday, some dealers will be probably tempted to switch some positions from EUR-USD to EUR-JPY trhough USD-JPY, before to call a top in EUR-USD especially if USD-JPY could be near the intervention zone. It's not just the time, perhaps, and we will start to see it on EUR-USD 1.09 or so, when supply (and liquidity) will become thin. It may be an early sign, if it happen, of a possible subsequent intermediate top in EUR-USD. Dealer's mentality is always to take as possible further cushions, and intervention fears may attract.

Gen dk 16:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
LA saint3,
My system still strong bullish for Eur/USD and GBP/USD
GBP/USD at 1.6360 welcome !
Eur/USD at 1.0860 welcome !!
USD/CHF at 1.3505 welcome !!!
AUD/USD at 5960 welcome !!!!
GL & GT friends...

SHENZHEN Laowen 16:40 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Will definitely sell GBP/$ above 1.70,will definitely sell Euro/$ above 1.18.Hahaha.
Long time no see,mates!
Long time no trading...

beijing road 16:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
cable, go go !

Tirana Bolshevik 16:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
how about forum for ex - communists

Bel Air KK 16:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm za 16:32 GMT January 24, 2003

There is a "Political Forum" already (look above and to the right for the link), which should be used for this purpose. But of course, any personal opinion regarding the FX market belongs here.

Cheers.

Euro Bubble 16:34 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Once upon a time there were tulips. Now its the EUR. The awakening will be the same. The next leg down will be terrible for the EUR bulls riding the last cent ...

Stockholm za 16:32 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
GVI john 16:15 GMT ::> Thats nice to know... May be you could also open up a new forum name < PERSONAL IDEOLOGIES > where people can go and debate (and push )their views---- for ½ the post today would of end up there......

Haha haha haaaaaa

Have a nice week end every one

rivesaltes leg 16:18 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas
I agree.I have 8050/7880 on the Dow but don't know what level that would correspond to in EUR/USD

Global-View 16:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
spain +49%, we need you to contact us asap.

GVI john 16:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
We have opened up the new Treasurer's Forum as of today. it is geared to those taking a longer term view of the forex market: hedgers, planners, economists, etc. For now access to the forum is free!. Just go to the Global-View homepage and follow the registration instructions.

hk ab 16:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thanks all the friends. Actually, I am not trading the eur/jpy. too hard to go now.
dlr/cad is much easier as John mentioned, people will liquidate to avoid the risk, same thing for nzd toy.
The eur/gbp lies this afternoon is so real. and they even push the eur to the blink of 1.0750 but seems a lot of people don't care. Finally big shark pushes it to the heaven. Good Trade Raden.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I think Dow still get down at 8115 and Dax still get down too at 2665.
Both still on the way for bearish signal and sure influence Eur/USD still for strong bullish. Any view ?

LA saint3 16:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
mas raden ..... any new news from your trading system about usd/yen and gbp/usd?

Gen dk 16:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Buenos Aires 16:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spain Eurobroker I agree too

Abu Dhabi Hassan 16:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
HK/AB
What is the resitence for euro /yen . Thanks

Bel Air KK 16:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ab: Japanese sellers around 127.50 unfortunately.

Eurobroker: Cheers.

hk ab 15:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
eur//jpy not much fun at 127.50

Plovdiv Gotin 15:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
E/$ pullback is delayed for Monday.Have a nice weekend mates.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Surabaya Joss,
Yes I am here, have a nice your target at 1.0810 and 1.0821 and Gold 367.15 as target.You have buy position again from 362.00 that have planned before ?.thanks

Global-View J 15:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
spain 15:37 GMT January 24, 2003
Please email us, we have a message for you. TIA

Tierra del Fuego Magellan 15:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Bel Air KK // I suscribe to your point of view 100% friend.-

Cheers & good weekend.

Bel Air KK 15:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
spain eurobroker15:37 GMT January 24, 2003
As I mentioned before to another participant, why do you care about the USD bulls if your P/L is looking good?
Now about the USD, as I am a mild USD bull, it is only a matter of resolving this Iraq situation before we see a sustained ralley for the USD. This is not to say that real flows have not been going into Euro for the long run, as evidenced by CB's such as China and Russia as of late.

Once the "war" with Iraq is over, AND (a BIG AND) is over quickly and with low casulty for the US and her allies, then I would expect to see at least a 2 yen retracement and a 2 cent retracement on Euro from current levels. This along with econ data showing continued signs of growth should bring life back into USD.


But for the moment, play with the trend/range and make a lot of money as I have been doing. Euro on uptrend and Yen in range (117.50-119.15, w/ pivot @ 118.00).

As long as you are making money, no need to gloat about it, as the market has a keen sense of reversing a trend at the drop of a dime.
Cheers and good trades.

midtown the_crusher 15:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
eur yen very bid here

ny 15:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
spain I am with you they must be all in canada

SA GL 15:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road 15:38
ON WHAT DO YOU BASE THIS EXPECTANCY ?

Abu Dhabi Hassan 15:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
euoro /yen is breaking higher and higher .
I am stuck with this cross .

beijing road 15:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I guess if 1.6320 -30 level is taken out in H1 chart, it will arrive 1.64 level quite soon.

slv sam 15:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
bought E/Y at 127.43 for 130 target, s/l 126.88,GL

Ldn pm 15:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Beijing - Road Re cable buy
thats a brave one!.... leave that for you to do.. GL

beijing road 15:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ab: I expect EUR/JPY pullback from 127.50 to 126 level.

spain eurobroker 15:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Where are those gurus claiming for a $ recovery? don't see them so far :-DDDDDDDD Nice evening to all

Gen dk 15:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beijing road 15:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
no, it is 1.6323(bid) not 1.6330

beijing road 15:29 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Buy cable at 1.6330 stop 1.6280 for quick money.

beijing road 15:29 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Buy cable at 1.6330 stop 1.6280 for qcick money.

hk ab 15:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
crosses are more exciting, eur/jpy 127.50

NC JJM 15:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
heading over there now jmr...cheers

Malaga boqueron 15:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
But in this environment, better to keep selling the usd.

NY 1 15:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Weak stocks ruling today.

Norfolk JMR 15:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NC JJM: I have a question for you in the Help section. Maybe you will have time to answer it this weekend. Thanks, JMR

Malaga boqueron 15:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Re Safe shorts, if such exists. Bit safer to short euro vs. aud. Stops above 1,8345. Offers better r/r.

NC JJM 15:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
u.s. stock markets very dependent on foreign money, the capital outflow many pundits predicted years ago looks like it is finally happeneing....imvho

Toronto Sparker 15:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
london th ...thank you for your money..lol

beijing road 15:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
any view about EUR/JPY pls?

kaunas fanalitikas 15:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
nasdaq -2,35%

hk ab 15:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Noody G must be v. busy now.

Gen dk 15:22 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

kaunas fanalitikas 15:22 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ok, eur go!

Surabaya joss 15:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good evening world.Hi Raden Mas are still around here?

london th 15:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
No new hi in cable or lo in $/JPY time to short euro.

New York GG 15:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Global american sentiment bad. we cant be seen bullying the rest of the world, besides i still want that sl500 mercedes

NC JJM 15:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ny wg>>>> obviously this is a political forum discussion but i'll tell ya one thing we need is their capital flows for sure.......cheers

Toronto Sparker 15:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Euro...happy making!! :))))

NC JJM 15:18 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
athens>>> very true good friend...keeping risk levels tight to account for this, otherwise no reason to fight the tide till price action gives a reason to..imvho and good weekend to ya

ny wg 15:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
who needs germany and france anyway , do yo think they are important

beijing road 15:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Crazy world, totally crazy. haha, I like it!!!!!!!!!!!!

NC JJM 15:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road>>>> just stocks off and it looks like and $ followed....reason pullbacks are so shallow is that short-term guys keep getting short anticipating tops in $, when that big sell-off doesn't materialize they have to cover and this provides the fuel for next run higher, classic market action....1.6240-50 key support in cable and 1.0740-50 in euro as long as these hold the uptrend will likely continue.....

just a fundamental note, after reading the news this morning the u.s. (rightly or wrongly) is really pissing off its key allies of germany and france...dubya better be careful cause this may influence even more capital outflows out of u.s..............imvho

GLOBAL VIEW GG 15:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
those cords are 15 euro, ie 30 dollars

Athens 15:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hello NC JJM my friend. All the best and keep in mind: as a good friend of mine said, "the trend is your friend..until it's not!..". Have a great weekend.

ny 15:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
As I have said euro 1.12 , dont sell before. keep the faith

Nairobi, Kenya JK 15:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia Slo raden Mas,Other friends.
Sweet target Eur Met tho after some grief!
GBP still me causing me trouble but eyes on target. My friend here
nairobi TN laughing all the way to the bank. GL friends.

Spotforex NY 15:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The US is fast approaching what I term is a "meltdown" level....financial terrorism is more of a concern than any actual physical attack....

The dow below 8200 and Euro above 1.0830 is the first trigger point. I am sure that US officials are watching with baited breathe......

Global-view - do you sell any bungee cords in your store?????

New York GG 15:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NC JJM

I can c that, there is a lot of excitement in the market. wonder whos birhtday it is.

Indonesia Solo 15:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
now Eur/USD give pulback from my forcast level that's mean no reversal, but good for buy again for target 1.0821 or 1.0860.
Be carefull too for Dow Jones for target 8225 (may be pullback from this level and can influence currencies market). GL & GT !!

beijing road 15:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
to JIM: it looks like "Last meal". any news pls?

ny 15:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
go euro go , dont stop keep going

hk ab 15:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
looks like both side s/l have been taken out. now, true trend should show up soon. I think in 2hrs

hk ab 15:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
looks like both side s/l have been taken out. now, true trend should show up soon. I think in 2hrs

NC JJM 15:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ny gg>>>>keeping stop tight at 1.6240...looks like today could be a crazy day...imvho

beijing road 15:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
My god. after I had been stopped out, 118.21 and 118.03 become something like " trigger". Joyrex, very sad.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Yes !! Have a nice friends.. for Eur/USD target .

Gen dk 15:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beijing road 15:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
to Stockholm za 14:31 GMT January 24, 2003
Singapore WN 14:25 ::::> 1,0746 is needed to triger the pull back..

I am very interested in your postering.Could me give me a little bit more explanation about how you define " trigger" pls?

Tartu kuues 15:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
What is going on ?

hk ab 15:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden, bingo again.

New York GG 14:57 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NC JJM
I like ur spirit man, go gbp go !!

sofia joyrex 14:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Road//i only guess :))

Gen dk 14:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sofia joyrex 14:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm, za//Re Cable: 1.6247 is the trigger point level in my opinion

beijing road 14:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Joyrex: how you know 1.0746 is trigger pls?

NC JJM 14:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hey everybody, especially great to see athens back in action...looks like yur going full force again adam!!!

gbp heading toward 1.6410 and then likely higher as daily vol studies i follow show move just beginning of move (see past posts this week).........1.6240-50 is downside support and below would negate this view........this thing may explode another few big figures..imvho

sofia joyrex 14:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Moskow//i prefer to stand aside regarding EUR/USD...Stockholm, za is right 1.0746 is trigger point to downside, some move up was suggested by 1.0784 reaching but it was trucated by now...mybe this time not?

Singapore WN 14:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
EUR Obviously not ... Watch Stockholm's support .. 11 pm here going to call it a week.
Good Nite all

Stockholm za 14:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
GBP/USD ::> 1,6244 is the gate way to watch.. Happy trades

beijing road 14:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Joyrex: 2 positions has been stopped out! It does not work well.

d d 14:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
euro dropping! gg yes!

Gen dk 14:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

moskow kolyvanov 14:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone view eur/usd, please

d d 14:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
gbp dropping!

New York GG 14:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Is there enough dollar strength to break the 3 day gbp uptrend????

Gen dk 14:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore WN 14:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Stockholm za 14:31 - Thks mate .. been a slow day ..

Cape town m 14:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
someone pleese give idea on gbp,

LA saint3 14:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
any ideas about gbp???

Athens 14:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Further to my morning comments, I am glad the GBP first did the "dirty" job through the crosses and next cable failed a model test and is now coming off itself, thus adding credence to the scenario.

Ga Lee 12:05, thanks for the compliment.

Pecs Andras 14:32 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hi everybody
I have a short cable position from 6330. How far do you think it will go down before it reverses the uptrend? What is a significant supprot now? Sorry, I have been busy with some exams and have not got a chance to study the charts.
TIA

Stockholm za 14:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Singapore WN 14:25 ::::> 1,0746 is needed to triger the pull back... Happy trades

Spotforex NY 14:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
FWIW - my daily system will have stops elected on long euro positions below 1.0650

It might be the first significant pulback in the 7 week euro bull run.

London SM 14:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Market is taking tis cue from eur/usd failure again to test 1.08.

Singapore WN 14:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Is this the pull back in the EUR ?

Atlanta web 14:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Can we still expect usd/chf to go farther down from here... maybe to 1.3550?

como perrie 14:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   

Keep
on Voting - 25% Eur/Usd at .9800 by dec 31, 2003 presently

Shelbyville MKT 14:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US Cash Dollar Index 99.73 >>> Down - .12

beijing road 14:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I set a limit at 117.69 for sell position.

sofia joyrex 14:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing, road//what are you targeting with your short USD/JPY? I have a buy order at 118.28, but dont expect this level reached soon.

London AL 14:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
cannes sl 14:02 GMT ftse. march futures trying to consolidate the 9 days down. massive size being thrown around outside the futures pit via blocktrades. mkt is capped by the size offers at 3641.5 & 3651.5 which have been there all am but again currently at 3630. my support is 3562-3566 but with inside dynamics 3598-3619 which occasionally pushes to the already established days range edges.

hk ab 14:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
provo john, still have patience to wait for the 1.52

beijing road 14:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
While I am writing, sell position was executed.

sofia joyrex 14:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sofia, Red//thanks, in my expectations EUR/USD might make a walk above 1.08, before some significant drop.

beijing road 14:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
try trading with BB 30': sell USD/jpy 117.98 stop at 118.20; buy 118.20, stop 117.98

nyc joe 14:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Tha Japanese government is not in the market at these levels
Doll/Yen is trading around 118 like all the other currencies trading around tight levels
I dont understand this markets obsession with the Japanese govt and intervention
Dolll / Yen has been range bound throughout this latest weakness in the doll agst the Europeans

cannes sl 14:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
to be honest its the firs time back at the plate for minute to minute jobbing since takingup a long term position some 18 months ago.just trying to get a feel for things.thought i might just stick my oar in to "trade the war"...looking for a good spot to buy some botom draw calls against my long term..and maybe some day to day...

Guangzhou Joewoo 13:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hi mates,does anybody think Japanese government is in the market now?
I think her is.Because Jpy hasn't up much and 118 is held.

Sofia Red 13:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sorry joyrex, no robust view on my side except that 1.0745 is equivalent support to 1.0685 and 1.0705. Good Luck.

London AL 13:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
cannes sl 13:47 ftse man after my own heart. would u like cash or futures and whats yur time horizon

cannes sl 13:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
would much appreciate a ftse view if anyone can spare me the thoughts

cannes sl 13:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
athens....good afternoon...long timeno see...i used to be sweden when the euro was at the bottom...trust your still pickig it like a broken nose

Spotforex NY 13:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
german Jan jobless at 4.54 mln, increased by 320,000 - source

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Well forum, This week was somewhat of a bust. Announced some pretty ambitious plans a couple days ago but I have yet to take a position due to the non-volatility. The step up once and consolidation it seems for hours and hours (I.e. Euro) is disconcerting but you can't force a postion that's not there imho. Hopefully more movement next week.

Gen dk 13:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sofia joyrex 13:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sofia, Red//May i ask you about your expectations about EUR/USD? Falling star on H1?

Sofia Alex 13:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Singapore WN and Tokyo Jon, mates thank you for the nice words.I am going to spemnd the last night out in town.So see you guys next week and I hope you will have a wonderful time like me.

Singapore WN 13:23 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sofia Alex 13:14 - Get out on the censored my good man , last night of total freedom .. forget the markets ... enjoy your day tomorrow

Singapore WN 13:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 13:10 - Have agood one , market dead .. no numbers later

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 13:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
nairobi Tn,
yes,I know but that's level have forcasted by me several days ago. Thanks for your answer.

Tokyo Jon 13:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Michael, congrats fo your wedding, are you have a last night fling. or spending the night with us.

Sofia Alex 13:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 13:10 GMT Have a nice weekend friend, Glad you had profitable week.I hope we will have time to speak to each other next week

Gen dk 13:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo Jon 13:10 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hello all,
just been to busy to join you all,
try to be with you next week.
hope you all had a profitable week like myself.

London AL 13:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road 12:59 - It was my mistake
Va Raven 12:45 - thx to you 2 for date
Gold I have high energy dates for possible countertrend trade of today and next wednesday
S&P I have monday
Euro its from now all thru next week with particular emphasis on next Wed & Fri

beijing road 12:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
to Al: sorry for wrong typing.

Nairobi, Kenya JK 12:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
London AL 12.49
Thanks alot.

Gen dk 12:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London AL 12:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road 12:47 thanks. my previous post managed to add an a to AL

London AL 12:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Nairobi, Kenya JK 12:32 gbp via the futures currently 1.6252 (equivalent spot add 58 pips) . looks range bound 1.6208 1.6276 with a whiplash pivot 1.6232. . bigger picture underneath there is good support 1.6048 and way above 1.6346

beijing road 12:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
ALa:Feb. 1

Va Raven 12:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Feb. 1st.

London ALa 12:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
from which day doe the Year of the Goat start (Chinese New Year) ?

Bne Cad 12:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
CAD target done (1.5250) Aud still to see .6000
still long euro 1.0550 c u next week! :)

London SM 12:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spain. They have faced reality and gone with the flow.

spain eurobroker.org 12:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
:-) Where are those commentators of this forum talking about $ strenghten 2 weeks ago? :-D It was nice to go the other way :-D

Nairobi, Kenya JK 12:32 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone with USDGBP short term view? Thanks.

Genoa nic 12:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Melb th,
When I said that european indexes where in a worse shape than US indexes, I meant only technically. Short to medium term, Dax seems a train ruunning to oct lows, right now, while Dow, for example, so far held the pivotal 8200.
Fundamentally, no doubt that P/E ratios are fare more attractive in Europe than in USA!

saloniko 2003 nk 1.18 12:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good Morning..

While is very possible to see 1.0888 next week maybe ..a good new for not War may sent Euro down to lower levels..
So Buy levels at 1.0720/10 with tight stops is a perfect strategy ..(Will help not to stay at Tops and waiting the train again)

nk

melb th 12:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Genoa nic 11:42 // I am not very familar with the european stock indices. When you say they are in worse state than in US are you referring to their movement or their representation of the stocks value or earnings?

,k 12:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
k

Athens 12:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Gold Coast, no longer, but please e-mail me.
Mihai and nic, thanks.
Have a nice weekend all.

Ga Lee 12:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thank you Adam for your 11:48...great points to remember for the long run

Gen dk 12:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Genoa nic 12:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
SLV Sam, you welcome

Athens, great views as always, It's a pleasure to have you back to the forum!

GoldCoast 12:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Athens - thanks, much appreciated.
the link on your Jan 5 not operative?

saloniko 2003 nk 1.18 11:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
1.0750 for sure..LOL!

nk

Nairobi Tn 11:57 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden Mas
I think 1.6300 is a good buy for GBP targeting 1.6340, s/l 1.6275.
EUR 1.0775 is a gd buy target 1.0810 with tight s/l 1.0750.
Think this target will be hit today. All IMHO. GL n GT

slv sam 11:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Genoa nic// many thanks , I agree 1.48 can be a trigger for a major move.

Bucharest Mihai 11:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Athens / you may add also bearish stance recently observed on eurgbp from 0.6650, actually...

Athens 11:48 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
GoldCoast, although my old theoretical long term target extended as lo as 1.34 for $/CHF, my techs now suggest building a long position for a medium term substantil correction. If the major issue is the war in Iraq, then the rallying EUR/CHF is not justified. In addition, my techs starting today are no longer bearish GBP/CHF and, more often than not, a higher GBP/CHF (and firmer GP on all the crosses in general) precede a relatively firmer Dollar.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 11:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Nairobi Tn,
How is your opinion for Eur/USD and GBP/USD now ?.thanks

Genoa nic 11:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I think that the raging bull in euro/$ is fully linked to european bond market- main european stock indexes are in a worse shape then US indexes. No signs of weakening at all for march bund future, new highs, a few minutes ago cleared psycological barrier at 115 (max 115.08) rigth now 115.04, FWIW

GoldCoast 11:38 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Athens 11:17 GMT
please can you clarify your view on $chf

Bonn 11:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Comments from the Davos by EU officials suggest that they are relatively complacent about the EUR rise, and that it is correcting from a long period of undervaluation. They see the impact on the external economy as relatively limited, and that the progressive strengthening in the unit is not the same a volatility.

Athens 11:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Please read "1.0785-1.0830".

Athens 11:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
No change in view re my posts earlier this week, overstretched prices with 1.08-1.09 a heavy lid in my opinion and 1.0585-1.0830 the nearby resistance zone. I still don't have a model directional change for EUR/$ but not so for $/CHF. In addition, I have directional changes in the CHF v. the GBP and also in GBP/JPY (both in favour of the Pound) which often herals a USD change. Last but not least, the rising EUR/CHF clearly shows that the overused "war premium" as an excuse to push the Dollar further down is nore brainwashing rather than a real concern. Good luck.

Genoa nic 11:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
SLV Sam,
some days ago I wrote about the upward movement in euro/chf since the beginning of the year saying that risk advertion could fade a little, obviously I was wrong, but in my experience euro/chf often tends to do better when euro/$ is weak.Today maybe short covering in $/chf mainly. 1.48, (20 months ma), if seen could be the catalyst for a possible major move.

Genoa nic 10:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Road, so far my broker has 67

sofia joyrex 10:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
One move above 1.08 on EUR/USD looks possible today?

slv sam 10:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
CHF is getting weaker especially against Euro opposite to my expectation! , any views?pls

beijing road 10:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Nic: it touch 1.4670(bid) already?

Genoa nic 10:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good morning everyone
Nice movement in Euro/chf, clearing a cluster of daily mas at 1.4640/50 area (50/100/200) looking for 1.48, where the key long term level is, IMVHO

beijing road 10:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax: I think so.

Gen dk 10:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk revdax 10:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
road//not today...in my view. Are there more people in Beijing trading fx than trading say S & P futures?

beijing road 10:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax; hope you will 500pips this time, good luck with your trading.

beijing road 10:29 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Not very cold.

beijing road 10:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax: i got a feeling that it may retrace to 126.10-50 level after EUr/jpy arrive 127-127.50 area

hk revdax 10:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
what is the weather in Beijing now?

beijing road 10:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
As I posted this morning, usually usd/jpy will become more aggressive .

hk revdax 10:23 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road// tell me when your buy signal come...ok?

beijing road 10:21 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax: I think it needs a little bit more time to show buy signal for me..

hk revdax 10:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
road//Hope..maybe...perhaps..are the worst enemies in the market place.

hk revdax 10:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road//$/JY...yes

beijing road 10:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Maybe we will see USD/jpy sell off at 118.15-25 level soon.

beijing road 10:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good Timing to buy USD?

Monte-Carlo HARRY 09:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sold Euro@1,0775

FRA 09:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
German accounts buying high yielding pounds.

hk revdax 09:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk ab//Looks like $/JY is going to fly off ....

Jkta 09:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Philippine Peso Ends Up As Banks Reduce Dollar Holdings

hk revdax 09:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk ab//I am a simple-minded farmer and i don't trade crosses. I hope it comes down to 11750 soon but it might just take off without us. What is it doing now?

hk ab 09:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
where is our eur bulls, viies today......

For all, note the line joining the several weekly chart tops at 1.08.
As tough as parity.

hk ab 09:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax, interested to ask, why not long eur/jpy? the interesting 127.50 level will soon be tested.

hk ab 09:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Tks Revdax, I was asking entry level.

hk revdax 09:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk ab//entry level or profit taking level? no idea on either. i am partially into long $/JY already...will buy more when it comes down to fairfax's 11750-60.

Msc rocket 09:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I hv got minor sell signal from eurusd hourly (65% accuracy). FWIW

Jacksonville ECP 09:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
PAR

What time are the numbers due to be released?

PAR 08:40 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Rumors UK GDP PRELIMINARY will be much better than expected. Big discrepancy between UK microeconomic numbers whic are awfull and UK macroeconomic figures which keep on painting a brilliant economy ?

hk ab 08:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
quiet.

sofia joyrex 08:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
selling USD/CHF from the current level with tight stop 30/40 pipses seems reasonable to me, target near 1.3530

hk ab 08:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Revdax, seems you are v. confident in long dlr/jpy, what level will you consider? now?

Provo John 08:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I guess this shows Iraq does NOT have WMD and we have NOTHING TO FEAR! After all Iraq IS cooperating right?

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Iraqi documents obtained by the BBC indicate that Baghdad is equipping key units with protection against chemical weapons.
The handwritten papers smuggled out by the Iraqi opposition refer to new chemical warfare suits to protect soldiers and distribution of the drug atropine to counter the effects of nerve gas, the BBC said on its Web site Friday.
The notes, passed on by the opposition Iraqi National Coalition, also included details for attacking ships in the Gulf. The INC says the notes came from members of Baghdad's military. Iraq's Republican Guard and Special Republican
Guard are among the recipients of special suits and atropine.

hk ab 08:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Does anyone get eur retail sales fig.?
Guess the gdp of gb is super good to lure those model fund buying this morning.

hk ab 08:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
any japanese sentiment here? I see jap funds flow will dominate the game now after those MODEL funds action.

hk ab 07:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NoodyG, looks like nothing is on the north side of eur. The problem is all the liquidity is drained. Is it what we called "dry up" in Chinese?

:-( 07:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
*DJ Fiat's Giovanni Agnelli Has Died - Ansa

London 07:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Remember when the GBP was sold back in 1992 my broker back then kept saying dont go short GBP over sold wait for a Bounce , IT NEVER CAME All the way from 2.11 down to 1.46 .. so dont hold your breath on the Dollar

Nairobi Tn 07:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas
Hi! Ur view still holds for GBP/USD and EUR/USD? Thx

Spr NoodyG 07:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thanks RS
just saw the stuff on WSJ
Snow seems highly strung
well gonna sneak out so that I wud be in time for the OZ Open
Somehow feel today we might take out the symmetrical top around 1.0805/10 and then hit somewhere near 1.0850-70

Reckon DlrSwissy might see 1.3500/10

Paris 07:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Bloodbath plotted in slum TERRORIST plot to launch a bomb blitz in London was foiled by Italian cops yesterday.

Five Moroccan men with links to al-Qa’ida suspects in Britain were seized during a raid near Venice

nyc 07:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US Bolton: Convincing Evidence Of Iraq Weapons Program
Bolton: UN Likely Can't Certify Iraq Compliance Monday

Almaty Alliance 07:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hi to all!
I guess we are near medium top for EUR. So sold it here. S/L at 1.0835
GL> to all.

Gold Coast L 07:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
We will see 1.08 today in Europe cant see much pull back, as no reason to buy the USD. S&P could be headed a lot lower also

beijing road 07:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
117.64?

brisbane eb 07:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
London MJM 07:11 GMT
excellent comment.....all Warmongers are the savages of humanity.

Tokyo 07:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Iraq Tension May Sink Dlr To Y116.50 Next Wk
Looking ahead, "the dollar could collapse to Y116.50, after breaking Y117.50," next week if chances of U.S. military action against Iraq increase significantly after Monday's U.N. weapons inspection report, said Toru Umemoto, foreign exchange strategist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. While Japanese monetary authorities are likely to continue verbal jawboning against a strong yen if the dollar falls below Y117.00, UFJ's Tate said that physical intervention was unlikely until at least Y116.00. There doesn't seem to be much point in intervening at current levels under current conditions, so (Japanese authorities) will probably wait until the dollar starts testing last year's lows in the Y115s," Tate said. But he added it would probably be well worth defending the Y115-level, as a break below it would turn long-term sentiment dollar bearish and spell trouble for Japanese authorities seeking to avoid a sharp rise in the yen.




hk revdax 07:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
CA//The view is buy $/JY. Need any war story to go with it?

hk revdax 07:30 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
MJM//Do you know what 'take off' means? It is the take-off of their pants! I think they would rather go to war than to take off pants.

Johannesburg CA 07:29 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Any views for me on the $/JPY as well as $?CHF please?

hk revdax 07:28 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
MJM//Buy $/JY...

Stuttgart gds 07:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
STL SAJ 06:48 GMT January 24, 2003
You sound like a very hatefull snotty man.Bashers of anything foreign, like you, belong to the political forum:- go there to piddle on whom you loath - or behave yourself.
i trade the market short or long EUR as the market dictates,without piddling on anyone.

RSA abk 07:22 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
London MJM, While u about it, please reserve a place for Zimbabwe`s Robert Mugabe, preferably with a one way ticket..

London MJM 07:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax// Good morning here.. I thinking about buying some USD against GBP around 1.6300-6350.. We cld see some short re-tracements.. GL!

hk revdax 07:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
MJM//We send them to a fx trading post and the one that loses the most would have to 'take off'...

hk revdax 07:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Stuttgart//You wrote:"be honest "Yankie", that "war of yours" is about OIl not about bits of arms..."

That is an outdated version of Marxist explanation.

If it were about oil, the easiest way to do it for the Yanks is to keep surrounding Iraq indefinitely and force Iraq to sell its oil at _below the market_ price for food....indefinitely. It does not cost that much more to keep the troops there than at home.

London MJM 07:11 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anybody who advocates war is thoroughly disgusting. If we wld have the technology, we shld send Bush, Blair and Hussein to the moon, to avoid 'collateral damage'...

Stockholm za 07:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good day forum ::> may be it is time to call in Don King.....

moskow kolyvanov 07:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
buy euro at 1.0750 profit target at 1.0825 stop at 1.0710
haiii man get to lucky okeeee

ST ST 07:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Software for trading : http://www.bestsoftnet.tk/

moskow kolyvanov 06:56 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
sell yen at 118.20 target profit at 117.50 stop loss at 118.60
good luck man........

STL SAJ 06:48 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Stuttgart -- What nonsense. If it were "about oil", the US **CLEARLY** could have seized all the Iraqi AND Kuwaiti oil fields in 1991. Ah, but the US did not, now did they. Peddle that cr*p to Joschka Fischer, eh, not to any rational person.

As to you lot being "surrender monkeys", the LAST time you won a war, you beat the Frenchies. Feather in YOUR cap, eh? I will note that your currency outperformed the Franc from 1946-1999. Then again, the US helped wreck its own currency in the late 1960s and all through the 1970s.

And, just the other day, that moron from Daimler offered his 'thoughts' about 'conservatives' being 'myopic'. Try this on, sonny boy, I live about 2 miles from a DaimlerChrysler plant (Fenton, Mo.), and even the assembly line guys are WAY p*ssed about that stupid remark. Memories of Spike Jones (you don't get that one, I'll wager) are being revived. Fine w/me, a good tune, a MARVELOUS satire on Der Fuhrer. (pardon my omitting der umlaut).

Doesn't matter what I think. Doesn't matter what you think. What matters is what the overall mkt thinks...and I'll wager you ein Weimar mark against $100 that, after we tee off against Hussein, you will want to have been short the Fishwrapper.

In Ordnung!

Provo John 06:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hong Kong AB 06:35, Not sure we will see 1.5255 but could try there. However, I am NOT adding any new shorts, just feel it is to risky. A correction is long overdue. I am watching the 1.52 reaction to get a feel what is there. This MAY be a big hurdle or may be a paper dragon.

Fairfax mk 06:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
revdax, a patient man would probably wait for a retest of 11750-60s. My median projected low for today comes in around there, anyway.

tokyo okanemochi 06:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
forex trading must be an interesting activity to attract "Bolshevik" and Lazy" as well

hk revdax 06:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Fairfax mk//Another inspired guess from you. Which is an ok level to buy $/JY? TIA

Porto PJT 06:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Provo, John, thanks, just imagining a small uptick if 52 is well defended.

Hong Kong AB 06:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
John, if you don't mind, would like to ask your what's the next short cad level if it retraces. Many thanks.

Fairfax mk 06:32 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Monterrey Niman10-1, the yellow line is Crude Oil Spot; the green line is USD Index relative to that. Re the UsdJpy:Oil relationship, it sounds interesting; Japan has always been quite sensitive to raw materials prices, as is well known. I will check it out, but doubtless not tonight, as is getting quite late for me.

Provo John 06:30 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Porto PJT 06:23, I am still short. CONSIDERING covering at end of day...next week risk not sure I want to be in the market. Have not decided yet.

Monterrey Niman10-1 06:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Fairfax mk, nice to see your inputs. I was wondering if you could tell me what the yellow and green lines represent? (the image is cut).

Also, if you want to see something interesting you should check out how USD/JPY has a 1 to 1.5 year lag to OIL prices since 94-95, i would be interested in hearing your opinion, I think a USD/JPY rise should be happening soon if it is to continue. Cheers.

Porto PJT 06:23 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Provo John, good call on usd cad, i was short at 5375, where you intended to sell or already sell?please, thanks.

Provo John 06:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
London S. 05:53, You are the victim of deliberate inaccurate news reports.

1) Snow was given a traffic ticket for an illegal left turn and "drunk driving" was NEVER charged.
2) He was NOT sued for not paying child support, a "petition" to the court was made to the court to INCREASE the amount of child support as he had received a substantial increase in salary. He and his ex-wife made an agreement OUTSIDE of court regarding the increase.
3) He was never implicated in the Columbia Gas problems because he was a member of an audit committee in a completly unrelated part of the company.

It is unfortunate that there are members of the news media who are more interested in their bias then reporting the facts.

GL GT

hk lazy 06:10 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
mk//Thank you so much. At least what you have said confirms what the Macau indicator has pointed out. In the balance of today, all of us are going to see which is false science or which is real...

melbourne farmacia 06:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
beijing road - It's all about Fibonnacci Number projections:
email me at farmacia@optusnet.com.au, I take you projections. Gota go to see a play now The Blue Room, be back for NY.

Hong Kong AB 05:58 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden, do you see pull back of gbp has started?

Fairfax mk 05:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk lazy, my bias today is not very strong, but it leans toward a stronger USD, particularly against JPY and CHF.

Stuttgart gds 05:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
STL SAJ 04:24 GMT January 24, 2003
RE: "sorry, all you Frenchies and Germans here, but you are laughable surrender monkeys"
Better stick to TRADING & Monte Carlo analysis, sounds like saj is a brainless WAR-monger.
be honest "Yankie", that "war of yours" is about OIl not about bits of arms, just an attempt to stop the rot in you economy to the detriment of the rest of the world- wealth acquired "by force" is still wealth-
Evidently it will be $ bullish.

London S. 05:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG Not only that, but for Not Paying his child support , his wife took him to court, also a dunken drivers charge, and that fraud case,

Snow impilicated in fraud case *Columbia Gas*

Really its a little surprising that Bush has chosen someone with such a shady background to run the affairs of the USA - who knows what else is under his bed.

beijing road 05:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
TO melbourne farmacia 05:46 GMT January 24, 2003:

I am curious to your calcalation and it really works vwey well. A little bit confused with your "nex target", would you like to give your explanations about how 1.6278 comes from? Thanks.

London S. 05:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Not only that, but for Not Paying his child support , his wife took him to court, also a dunken drivers charge, and that fraud case,

Snow impilicated in fraud case *Columbia Gas*

Really its a little surprising that Bush has chosen someone with such a shady background to run the affairs of the USA - who knows what else is under his bed.

hk lazy 05:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Fairfax mk//I know you seldom commit yourself to any specific comments regarding market direction. But if you could make an exception this time, please tell us which way $ is going today?

Melb RS 05:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG 05:34 GMT
Think that did the rounds 6 months ago??

Auckland Baa 05:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
DJ RBNZ Bollard: NZ Dlr Has Recovered To More Normal Levels

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said Friday that the New Zealand dollar had "simply recovered to more normal levels
Bollard was making a speech about the currency's rapid appreciation over the past year, entitled "Making sense of a rising exchange rate."
"In this case, of course, it is important to remember that the exchange rate has simply recovered to more normal levels, pricing New Zealand assets and products more sensibly," Bollard said.
Bollard was explaining why the bank hasn't cut the Official Cash Rate, currently at 5.75%.

melbourne farmacia 05:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:52 GMT January 24, 2003
Queen V's Uncle Sam - 1.5906 - 1.6194 = 1.6304 ( done )

NEXT Target 1.5906 - 1.6278 = 1.6420 ( target )

beijing road 05:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Noodygal: Hope to see good movement of usdjpy tonite.

Tirana Bolshevik 05:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hi raden mas exelent call this morning
whats your next forecast if you dont mind my asking
TIA

Spr NoodyG 05:34 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Snow impilicated in fraud case *Columbia Gas*
enuf to send DlrYen test the 117.30/40 big stops tonite?

beijing road 05:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
USD/JPY daily BB(10,1.5): Middle 118.10; upper:118.56, lower:117.64.

beijing road 05:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The DAILY band width is getting lowest for the last one year!

beijing road 05:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
The band width is getting lowest for the last one year!

Fairfax mk 05:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
While I am posting charts and STL SAJ is reminding us all about 1991, it seems this might also be a good time to repost the link to my 1990-91 Usd Index against Crude Oil Spot study from some weeks back.

beijing road 05:20 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
to Joe: I do not know. When a contracting BB is seen, a break-out pattern(either way) will be seen quite soon.

Kenya Joe 05:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Beijing Road, in your opinion, usdjpy at mid march could be at 125 rate?

TIA

beijing road 05:16 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I prefer to take a position when weekly and daily BB are both contracting with tight stoploss.

STL SAJ 05:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Apologies for the typo.

Should read 'March 1, 1991', not 'March 1, 2001'.

I've no idea when the US tees off against Saddam (likely the dark of the moon, this month or next), I'm not a military strategist at all, but the US **will** do so, and ccy and interest-rate markets will react...in my view, along generally the same lines as they did in Jan 1991.

beijing road 05:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
USD/JPY daily BB is contracting!

sydney 05:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--New Zealand government long bonds closed Friday marginally weaker after the central bank cooled speculation of an early rate cut, while the local currency bounced back, with Governor Alan Bollard's comments suggesting the economy's 450 point yield advantage over the U.S. is safe ."I think the market got ahead of itself (Thursday) when Bollard signaled an easing bias...so today's speech effectively rules out an earlier easing," said a trader.
He was referring to Bollard's comments earlier Friday that March would be too soon to assess the impact of the strong New Zealand dollar on the economy, effectively warning the market not to bet to heavily on an early rate cut.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 05:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NY PL,
Yes you can look yourself, but I think only corection move (now still not yet give sell signal).thanks

Fairfax mk 05:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Taiwan. a. 04:25 GMT, UsdChf, UsdJpy, Sep 93 - May 95, with 10-period RSI.

beijing road 05:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
No Constracting band is seen in Weekly USD/JPY chart yet.

Singapore WN 05:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
STL SAJ 04:59 - Thks for the reply

beijing road 05:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
In the usd/jpy monthly chart, a Bollinger-Band is seen constracting now. BB(10,1.5) Middle Bnad: 121.39, lower band 116.71, upper Band 126.06. If 116.71 might be taken out, the explosive movement could be seen.

Melb RS 05:01 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Seen a smart buyer sub 1.3590 in USDCHF fwiw

STL SAJ 04:59 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Singapore -- Sorry, haven't a website. Just a trader. You will find me occasionally lowering property values at forum.ino.com.

Truly, EVERY trader should look up mkt history from Jan 16, 1991 through March 1, 2001. History will NOT repeat itself, but, to quote Mark Twain....it WILL rhyme.

Good trading to you!

NY PL 04:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas, What your system tells It is pull back at 1.6305 level.. Thanks.

hk revdax 04:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
karachi//You would not have needed to say good-bye and disappeared if you had not produced crapp...

Singapore WN 04:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
STL SAJ 04:50 - Interesting comments any chance of that web page address ?

STL SAJ 04:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Oh, the book will be released June 27th (I believe -- plus/minus 3 days). Frankly, my dear, I'd rather trade than sign autographs, but I suppose I'll sign some number of them (g!). Best opinion? Retail traders will like it, perhaps; others will loathe it, particularly stock mkt types. All one can do is relate facts as best can. We'll see.

But, dadratit all, facts are still facts. Traders look to patterns, true? As noted, USD is weak because it should be, and in any case -- no matter how much JPY should be at 190 -- a trader must deal with reality. Where will USD be next week? I haven't a clue and don't care; I don't trade on that basis.

It's far easier to trade profitably, in my view, by assessing what a market is NOT apt to do over a given period. I will be fascinated to watch the Fishwrapper (my private name for Eurocurrency) **RISE** once the US tees off against Saddam.

And, I'll bet against that outcome 100 times out of 100.

Tape at eleven (w!)

Karachi 04:48 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Revdax, Please go back to the political forum where people actually put up with you crapp. Good bye peon.

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US,
For USD/JPY still follow the sceanrio like yesterday view :

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:43 GMT January 23, 2003
Hongkong AB, Gol Coast
Eur/USD have given buy signal for get 1.0764 (minor pullback) or 1.0810 (pullback)
GBP/USD have give buy signal for get 1.6278 (minor pullback) or 1.6305
AUD/USD have get target at 0.5907 (pullback)
USD/JPY have give sell signal for get 117.90 (minor pullback) or 117.35 (pullback)
USD/CHF have give sell signal for get 1.3590(minor pullback) or 1.3535 (pullback).
Thanks ang GL GT for you friends...


LA saint3 04:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
GBP breaks 63 ... what next?

hk revdax 04:43 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Toronto Sparker//Your 04:18 post. You don't need to repeat my post. And you are speaking like a piece of tra*sh by the roadside. Just bug off. Would you?

London S. 04:40 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US Pres Bush is determined to go to war with Saddam Hussein in the next few weeks, without UN backing if necessary, UK Guardian reports, citing authoritative sources in Washington & London. The article, being reported by JIJI, is getting market attention and thus inviting some fresh USD selling this afternoon

H.K. Trading8 04:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
12:38 24Jan2003 DJN-DJ US EMBASSY IN NZ CORDONED OFF;2 SUSPICIOUS PARCELS FOUND.

Dowjones newswire.

US 04:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas : What's your view for USD/JPY ? TIA

melb th 04:37 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
STL SAJ 04:24 GMT // G'day Stew. Great to hear your grumpy voice again. Is your book out yet? Anyone who doesnt take notice of your recommendations needs treatment. Would you be able to post your dow timeline for Desert storm 1 on this site if you still have it? There has been some odd ideas about the effect DS2 may have mentioned recently.

Toronto Sparker 04:36 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
euro still creepin and crawling...censored, it's too easy...lol..can't wait for a decent pullback..but this ride might not really end till the war is called in-the-bag by the media...

Indonesia solo Raden Mas 04:35 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Have a nice friends.. for your GBP/USD target at 1.6305 .Be happy please... welcome for Eur/USD over 1.0800 !

Taiwan. a. 04:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Well can see 108 on the Euro before open of Europe, can someone tell me when the USD fell against the Yen and DMK back in 1994 were they ever in a position as being extremely over bought as now , but with no correct as is now from DMK 168 to DMK 134 and Yen 11O - 76

STL SAJ 04:24 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
This whole discussion is hilarious, and smacks of a LOT of people not honouring, or learning from, history. Bush is a mediocrity, but entirely better than Gore would have been for the world economy at large. Socialism is a joke (sorry, all you Frenchies and Germans here, but you are laughable surrender monkeys).
Whether the dollar is 'strong' or 'weak' is entirely irrelevant over ANY but the shortest term.

If swing trading is all the anti-American crowd do, well then, I suppose they may do well over a short term. USD is weak because it DESERVES to be weak; I'm not a USD bull at all. I suggest that the anti-American crowd observe what happened in FX from Jan 16 through Mar 1 of 1991. Please DO tell why anyone should expect a different result this time...the only problem is timing.

As for a statistically SOLID trade, I would (and will, tomorrow) buy just 2 ECM 114 calls and sell against them 9 ECM 117 calls. Do any multiple of this trade that you like, doesn't matter as long as you don't overextend your trading capital.

Likely enough, upwards of 0.90 probability on a Monte Carlo analysis, this trade can be cashed out, QUITE profitably, before March 1st. Don't believe it? I couldn't care less -- EUnuchs don't deserve a profit, and haven't a clue to start (1- and 2-Euro coins...the world's ONLY frangible currency) Check the volatilities of these oppies; there is some odd and serious mispricing here.

BTW, if Eichel and Shoe-odour disagree, do they get into an Issing match?

Flame away -- I shall admit I'm wrong if wrong, publicly and right here, but,fortunately for my pocketbook, this trade is VERY easily defended. Trading is about making a profit, not about validating one's political views.

The only question remaining is: will those who hate this view behave AS honestly? (tossing a coin)

Toronto Sparker 04:18 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Revy..who ya kiddin??...not that i really care..and please be sure to mail me one of them farm daughters that know their place...lolololol.....(if only they were just like mommy, right??? ..ieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!)

"I will spend my Chinese New Year amongst the farmers' daughters in Shenzhen of China. After all, this is a Chinese traditional festival and I opt to have it spent amongst the traditional people. The farmers' daughters in China are still very nice people, unpolluted so far by the on-slaught of 'modern influence'. The HK ladies are a bit different. Being polluted by 'modern influence', they tend to demand quite a bit from men, without realizing that their comparative advantage has gone down since China opened up. They used to ask for Shark Fin soup when they went out with me. Now, they are lucky if I treat them to MacDonald. "

hk revdax 04:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
toronto sparker//What on earth are you talking about? Treating a woman to MacDonald is not oppressing of women. Even asking the woman to pay for her share is quite OK. It is only when a man asks a woman to pay for his share, then your concept of women oppression begins to come near the border. Your blatant despise of MacDonald and your reciprication to Big Mac kindness with Mummy love puts you ahead of me.

Toronto Sparker 03:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax 03:36 GMT ...the thought of keeping women poor...without rights...a subordinate of males...a slave in the kitchen ...a possession...might be very attractive to ya crackers on the mainland...but modern times have no boundaries...and equality among men and women of all nations will not be denied...no matter how ignorant its protestors...of course if you bully a young woman badly enuff with Big Macs she might just give in and give you what you really want ..... mommy...IEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Singapore WN 03:48 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG 03:46 - Maybe for you interbank players with many custy orders .. last few hours dead ...IMHO

Singapore WN 03:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Today"s
Guardian said that according to informed sources in Washington and London,
President Bush is determined to go to war with Saddam in the next few weeks,
with or without UN backing.
Bush will use his state of the union address "to turn up the heat". One European
official said that the pressure is coming from Bush and is felt "all the way
down". "They are talking about weeks, not months, months is a banned word now".
Where there is smoke there is fire...and of course Oil man Bush
Mid Feburary is the date watch that .....

Bush wants U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to present evidence of Saddam"s
violations of UN resolutions immediately after the UN weapons inspectors give
their report to the UN on Monday.
The Guardian says that Downing Street is alarmed by the Bush administration"s
haste and was adamant that the decision to go to war should not be declared
before Blair flies to Camp David for talks with Bush on Friday.--
From IFR

Spr NoodyG 03:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
WN market is very active lah?

Singapore WN 03:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good Day fellow traders .. Seems Asia is sleeping today .. and the rest of the day seems to be heading same way ... No US numbers , only news of war on Iraq will influence the markets today ... or some other sudden market moving news .... so back to zzzzzzzzzz

hk revdax 03:36 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
HK ab//I will certainly do that. For the time being, the Macau 'retail' speculators are hand-off in buying US$. Thus it might provide an _interlude_ to the on-going down trend of US$.

I will spend my Chinese New Year amongst the farmers' daughters in Shenzhen of China. After all, this is a Chinese traditional festival and I opt to have it spent amongst the traditional people. The farmers' daughters in China are still very nice people, unpolluted so far by the on-slaught of 'modern influence'. The HK ladies are a bit different. Being polluted by 'modern influence', they tend to demand quite a bit from men, without realizing that their comparative advantage has gone down since China opened up. They used to ask for Shark Fin soup when they went out with me. Now, they are lucky if I treat them to MacDonald.

Hong Kong AB 03:26 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Revdax, if those nice Macau fishes swim back to short dlr position? could you please kindly let us know the index? TIA. How will you spend your Lunar New Year?

NYCNYCNYC 03:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
There was n o strong dollar policy, the merket created the idea itself and selfpropelled , ran with it, US technology and more attractive investment environment attracted $$$ anyway.

The dislocation became so severe, it is finally self correcting.

Traders praddle on, the market does what it must do.

tokyo kuroba 03:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
strong dollar policy was introduced when swissy was at 1.11. swissy is now at 1.36.still a strong dollar policy intact.serious.

H.K. Trading8 03:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NoodyG--you can claim commission from MCM Currencywatch as a freelance reporter.

Right now, it is reporting the MarketNews passage about U.S. 'strong dollar policy'.

Three hours later than your first reporting. What a lousy service.

Again, blessed to this forum that we have you on board.

NYC NAG 03:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone have thoughts on EURGBP?? think we should have good support .6595/6605 area for move higher.. GBP does look a little too bid here so am concerned about getting long cross here .. early trding this morning EURGBP sold off to about .6612 before jumping back up to .6638/40 when EURO broke above 1.0740 any thoughts???

Nyc 03:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
US Treasury Secretary-designate Snow not likely to change FX policy Don't look for any currency policy shift at next Tues Senate confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary-designate Snow. Yet, the "strong" dollar policy exists in rhetoric only, with market forces apt to be left to their self-correcting ways.

melbourne farmacia 02:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Queen V's Uncle Sam - 1.5906 - 1.6194 = 1.6304 ( target )

beijing road 02:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
correction: USD/Cad.

beijing road 02:51 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
USD/Cas just low 200W SMA 1.5229.

GER ad 02:48 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Yesterday morning Commerzbank wrote this about cable:

Bullish above 1.5690 uptrend. Break above 1.6250 targets 1.6550. Long term target 1.7350/1.7450

Any thoughts?

London Sam. 02:41 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG are you thinking of picking up any NZD or Aud if so where would you be looking , dont normally trade these you seem to have a good view. thanks

Tirana Bolshevik 02:36 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I do like that too, somr us fund is buying cable

Hong Kong AB 02:36 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
someth funny wiht the sheep. .5525 bounce again.

Toronto Sparker 02:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Euro..creepin nicely..10740 nice bounce level twice in a row...yum yum... :))))

Hong Kong AB 02:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
NoodyG, your view on gbp pls.

hk revdax 02:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
AG//Quite true that we are operating in a political mkt. But a trend is a trend and thus is a friend. So far Euro is still in an uptrend and to go against an uptrend is to go against a friend.
$/JY is a bit different. It is showing signs of consolidating at the bottom and popped up a few times for the past days. Thus to go long on $/JY is to make a friend!

Spr NoodyG 02:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Do your Stg roar roar

H.K. Trading8 02:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
RS and revdax-- Thks for the inputs. True that the pair may consolidate at low level for a while.

Kenya Joe 01:55 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Raden Mas hope you come early... need some advice!


TIA
GT to all

Berkeley AG 01:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Yes, I know what you mean Revdax. I'm not planning to short until it breaks its support barrier. Of course, also have to keep in mind the whole "war" situation..

NYC YIPPEE 01:53 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Charlie who knows???? .83 EURUSD was out of the question, so why not 1.35 ??

Melb RS 01:52 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
H.K. Trading8 01:14
I tend to agree. Should be heavy towards 118.10-15 on the day for a look back towards 117.70, but don't expect it to fall out of bed.
EURYEN k/o 127.25, but seeing profit taking on the cross on rallies. GBP going silly gotta hop...

hk revdax 01:46 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
AG//I was going to short Euro risking yesterday's HI but instead went long on $/JY. To me buying $/JY is a better alterntive to shorting Euro. $/JY a few days ago already touched on 11736 and has so far remained above it while Euro has been penetrating thru levels after levels of resistance. To pick 'the' top of a trend is a rather mentally uncomfortable experience.

H.K. Trading8 01:42 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Look at the pound. Seems those lag-behind are playing catch-up

Berkeley AG 01:39 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
By the way, thanks for the advice REVDAX. I am planning to stay long on dollar yen for now. I've just been getting nervous since it keeps bouncing off the 117.50 levels for some time now. It might be broken one of these days and not extremely confident that BOJ will do anything about it. Thanks for the advice and support!

Berkeley AG 01:31 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
My reasons for closing my long Eur/USD early..

1. Daily and Weekly RSI point points to a slowing momentum
2. Stochastics AND RSI keep crossing over and back the overbought levels.
3. All these rallys will eventually call the MACD to diverge into the negative territory.
4. "Whatever goes up, must come down"

BUT, even at overbought levels, market will usually push for it to go higher..and it would have to be around 1.0650 before it would follow its fibonnaci retracement. So just my opinion..Thanks!

hk revdax 01:27 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
HK Trading 8//I would suggest you to stay on the long side of $/JY.

hk revdax 01:25 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Fairfax MK//Nice to have heard your voice from the wilderness.
You once taught me a way to locate your site through the archive. Yes, I can do that with the computer in my office but not the one at home. And I am staying home today.

Fairfax mk 01:19 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Cheers, Islander. If I had been paying closer attention, you wouldn't have had any reason to think I wasn't! :)

St. Pete islander 01:17 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Sorry Fairfax mk .... didn't know you were aboard. gt

Fairfax mk 01:15 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Here, Revdax.

St. Pete islander 01:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
hk revdax This is what you are looking for. GT
http://members*bellatlantic*net/~marmuker/

Memphis Charles 01:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thanks Revdax; I know you're killing it, too.

Yipp. do you agree with the 1.15 though? I think they'd intervene at those levels, maybe sooner.

H.K. Trading8 01:14 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
RS--what's view on USD//JPY today?

Although the pair rebound from 117.65 to close above 118, I feel the pair is going to fall again.

Memphis Charles 01:10 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Good night John Boy, Mary-Ellen, Nudie Girl.

Melb RS 01:09 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
LA 01:05 GMT
Feb 5th rings a bell
Model guys selling USDJPY here this morn ... not sure I'd read into it too much as they couldn't get enough above 118.70 yesterday.

St-Petersburg Jam 01:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Marketview for 24.01.03

EURUSD
During the day buys could be tried at 1.0725. Euro keeps potential for correction to 1.0650-65 and 1.0600.

USDCHF
Correction levels for swiss are 1.3700 and 1.3785. 1.3685-00 should be watched for a sell.

GBPUSD
Levels for buys – 1.6140-50 and 1.6085-00. If seen lower – better to wait a bit.

USDJPY
Still better to wait. If market can get above 118.50 and hold that level ‘till USA close – one can think about long – just as a contra trade - for 119.50-120.00.

These prognoses are just my own view on market and do not require anyone to follow.

hk revdax 01:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Memphis Charles//Welcome back. We are short of American characters here in this forum, which has been heavily populated by the 'foreigners'.

NYC YIPPEE 01:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Charlie with EURUSD at 1.20/1.25 +++ the bond and equity markets here in the US will be in the toilet!..

Memphis Charles 01:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Me either. The shear increase in account equity makes diversification a lot easier.

hk revdax 01:06 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Berkeley AG//I would stay put with the long $/JY position and consider selling it only when it takes out CS's 11744 level. IMVHO...there is a good chance that 119 will be attempted one more time over the next 48 trading hours.

LA 01:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG thanks for that you dont know when the Knockout expires by any chance

Memphis Charles 01:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
FWIW, it's my belief that the powers that be in the U.S. will not worry about the dollar, vis-a-vis the Euro, until 1.15 or so. Lot's of room for more run-up, but keep moving your profit protection stops...

NYC YIPPEE 01:04 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hello Charlie. Not in the school of all the eggs in your basket.. Things are good..

Spr NoodyG 01:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
I hear a KO at 0.5950
but also expiries at 0.5920 n 0.5970
reckon the Oz is pretty bid
was lucky to spot very early the DJ Westpac stuff
so got long at 73 n out this morning
Must say what a stupid Yen deal I had

Memphis Charles 01:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
GV don't remove the post please.

hk revdax 01:02 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Anyone has the address of Fairfax's website address? TIA

Memphis Charles 01:00 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Yippee, if you aren't still long as censored the Euro then you are, quite blatantly, a flaming homosexual.

I hope all is well. I'm going to retire on this B*stard.

LA 3 00:54 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Noody girl any option left on lthe AUD and Kiwi you know of

Spr NoodyG 00:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
By Steven K. Beckner

Market News International - Even though White House spokesman Ari
Fleisher again said there is no change in dollar policy, speculation
persists that it may well change if and when John Snow is confirmed as
Treasury Secretary, but a shift from the oft-stated commitment to "a
strong dollar" is highly unlikely, Market News International is reliably
informed.

Rhetorically supporting a "strong dollar" does not, however,
necessarily mean the Treasury, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve,
is prepared to do anything to counter dollar weakness.

While the Treasury has never ruled out intervention to support the
dollar were it to begin falling in a "disorderly" fashion, the real,
underlying dollar policy is to basically let the market set exchange
rates.

The "strong dollar" policy "doesn't have to do with the level,"
said a knowledgeable source. "It has to do with not using it for
political gain or to promote exports."

The Treasury and the administration, as well as the Fed, have stood
by as the dollar has steadily depreciated over the past year, even while
continuing to assert that "a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest."

The monetary authorities have been prepared to accept the dollar
depreciation that has occurred with some equanimity because, for one
thing, it was regarded as inevitable to a degree after a long period of
appreciation. And they have been unwilling to counter an exchange rate
trend that tends to bolster struggling U.S. manufacturers.

This basic posture of rhetorical support for a "strong dollar"
while countenancing dollar weakness is unlikely to change under Snow or
anyone else.

The primary reason is that the authorities fear a change in
rhetoric "would be disruptive" to the financing of the U.S. current
account deficit, said a source.

The thinking is that dropping the "strong dollar" policy might
aggravate dollar weakness, making foreign investors more reluctant to
place capital in dollar-denominated assets and pushing up long-term
interest rates. All very counterproductive.

Any competitive gains to be had from dollar depreciation can be had
with no policy change, as shown over the past year. The dollar's
unrestrained drop over the past year is regarded as having helped
supplement monetary and fiscal stimulus and made American goods more
competetive with imports.

Many factors have been cited to explain the dollar's slide,
including the current account deficit, rising federal budget deficits
and the Fed's slashing of interest rates which has not only
increased the interest premium on the euro, among other
currencies, but caused an increase in the supply of dollars.

The main driver of dollar weakness, though, is thought to be the
slackening of growth -- not an outright decline -- in foreign investment
in the United States. "It doesn't require a contraction (of capital
inflows), just a lessening of the pace of purchasing," said a source.

"It's not the case that investors see better returns elsewhere,"
the source continued. "They're just nervous about any investing, so
they're going into cash and things like gold."

There is a good deal of skepticism about the bearish sentiment
about the dollar that prevails in the foreign exchange market in the
administration and the Fed. The feeling is that fear of deficits has
unjustifiably dominated market thinking and that the market has been
paying insufficient attention to the U.S. economy's better growth,
stronger productivity and more attractive investment prospects.

And the administration belief is that the salutary effects of
President Bush's proposed tax cuts and reforms on growth and investment
will outweigh any effect on the budget deficit.

Hong Kong AB 00:50 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Noody, do you know anyone sitting on the topside of aud?

Buenos Aires DB 00:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
To Spr Noody G.: Any views on JPY ? Thanks.

Singapore 00:49 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Spr NoodyG do you think too dangerous now on aud at these levels

Berkeley AG 00:47 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Hey everyone. My MACD is pointing to a Sell signal for the USD/JPY. However, I still have some 2 buy positions open. One from 118.60 and 117.70.
So should I close the profitable position and Buy Euro or Cable?

Or does anybody have a reason to believe fundamentally or technically that the Dollar Yen will go back up to at least 118.80-119.00 by next week?

If the repatriation flows occured in the current levels..japan would be in deep kaka.

Hong Kong AB 00:45 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Thanks th and john.
Someone seems sitting on the top side of nzd. Also, FYI, Revdax has got the Macau sentiment index which showed that all the small fishes are not longing USD anymore.

Spr NoodyG 00:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
from an optional service

[BOLLARD] also referred to the [KIWI] having returned to more
"normal" levels. In this regards, he is indirectly referring to the TWI readings
where it stood after the devaluation of July 1984. It is also roughly where the
Kiwi has measured on an average basis since it got floated. His words also
indicate that FX rates are not the sole criterion for setting policy. Further,
by saying that the RBNZ will look at data over the next few mths and that NZ
rates are historically low, the cb governor looks to have paid lip service to
the issue he was delivering to the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce.





singapore 00:44 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Any views on buying aud about here please

Provo John 00:33 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
RS, thank you

d 00:32 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
d

Provo John 00:13 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
What is the current value of the index?

Melb RS 00:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Current TWI lvl is 60.50-60 which is above his equilibrium band, but market was expecting 'NZD overvalued against USD and AUD' comments

Melb RS 00:12 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Current TWI lvl is 60.50-60 which is above his equilibrium band, but market was expecting 'NZD overvalued against USD and AUD' comments

Melb RS 00:10 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Provo - no he said 54-60 best level of NZ TWI equilibrium

Melb RS 00:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Bollards comments not as bearish as market was expecting fyg...

Provo John 00:08 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Did bollard just say 54-60 is a good spot rate?

Provo John 00:07 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
Never mind!...Trade weighted index...DUH!

Provo John 00:05 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   
What is TWI equilibrium?

Toronto BA 00:03 GMT January 24, 2003 Reply   

Atlanta- this website is fantastic for learning -
Lots of smart dudes, but you still have to trust your own judgement in the end-

Like the guy in that ING commercial says-

It's YOUR money!

 


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