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Forex Forum Archive for 12/1/2004

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SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 23:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Syd & Halifax CB ...THANKS

AUD..

ASIA range could be


0.7730 0.7782


May work may not


Chicago Irish 23:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AGuy...I'm wary of sand because it shifts,but tend to agree something in the area.

Stockholm AGuy 23:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Am I just imagining things, or is there a line in the sand for USD/JPY @ 102.50?

Syd 23:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ny 23:18 GMT out 00.30gmt.

KL KL 23:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
LONG GBPUSD 1.9330 SL 7 BELOW

prague jv 23:32 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) -- Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom is talking to Western banks to raise up to $10 billion to fund the purchase of the key oil unit of embattled oil major Yukos, industry sources said on Wednesday.

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/12/01/gazprom.yukos.reut/index.html

Hong Kong Qindex 23:30 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

London 23:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco Fed's Yellen suggesting Fed has further hikes in bag though is coy on just how many: Current policy "is accommodative, and, as the expansion firms up, that degree of accommodation will have to diminish. widely tipped to hike 25 bps Dec.

Halifax CB 23:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Saihat - sell signals on Eurousd & gbpusd? I have them, but right now for ST only; they may be developing into longer term, but in the meantime it's a close watch on them...Anyway, the first (albeit weak) ones I've seen in awhile...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The eur/usd pair is creating a bullish ascending triangle in the 4hr chart and looks ready to explode again to the top side if a break and close of the 3350 resistance were to happen that would expose the 3400 resistance to the bulls with the main objective still in the 3500-30 area. Traders still seem to be jockeying for position for the NFP (AKA bloody Friday if that meant something anymore). Here are the latest numbers for the eur/usd pair.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3350-60, 3400-10, 3440-50, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3200-10, 3145-55, 3100-10 and 3035-3045.
Retracement numbers are 3240-50, 3165-75, 3100-10, 3040-50 and 2970-80.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3190-3200, 3080-90, 2990-3000, 2910-2920, and 2805-15 for now key retracement number is 3080-3100.
Support T/L is around 3305-3315 and 3265-75.
Support is around the 3290-3300, 3260-70, 3220-3230, 3180-3200, 3130-50 and 3050-70 for now key support is around the 3130-50 area IMHO. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 23:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/AUD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

ny 23:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
i thought that aussie number doesnt come out till 1930 gmt , was it released early?

Syd 23:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
However, some are in this camp and seeing -->>AUD struggling to rally here in an environment of sustained USD weakness, adding to our suspicions a major reversal is in the wings. Close now below 0.7700 doublebottom will resume down move and open up 0.7560.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 23:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
any one see what i see

Syd 23:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape
possible down first to lower 77

SanFrancisco tg 23:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Not including Sterling, how would you all characterize the price activity of the last 12 hours ? There were times it seemed to me like petrifying wood.

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 23:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD

as my (one) guess

IF hit .7791..then by time will see .7817

if hit .7817...then by time will see .7960

IF NOT >> down

any one see what i guess

Hong Kong Qindex 23:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 23:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Aussie house prices expectatons down 2.0% in 3Q, biggest quarterly fall since measure began in 3Q 1986

KL KL 22:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, top of the day...yep that was a 100 pip+ run up from where many would be happy to tp and short...unbelieveable...this mega ton gorilla have legs but I think final legs....yet dangerous and powerful legs. I am sure many who set high sl would have been taken up easily. I await your signal and will take a possie and hopefully ride it down with you to 1.60...if you believe me..LOL

London 22:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
While everyones jumping ship the US will smartly take advantage of the low dollar situation to strengthen the economy .

Improving revenues and rising interest rates have prompted fast growing companies in the U.S. to increase borrowing during the third quarter, according to a study released Wednesday. The survey shows 22% of the companies interviewed have increased their credit lines, up from 18% in the previous quarter. Companies have also increased the number of new bank loans completed during the third quarter, 19% against 15% in the second quarter. Confidence about improving revenues is one of the main drivers for the increase in borrowing activity, according to the survey conducted during the third quarter with 355 chief executive officers of privately held, fast-growing product and service companies. Almost 60% of the companies securing new financing expect major capital spending in the next 12 months, while 51% have to meet increased budget needs for information technology, and 28% are looking to finance business acquisitions.
The increase in borrowing appears to be driven "by the pressures of steady growth, the need for expansion capital, and a desire to act promptly, before interest rates make their next upward move. The Federal Reserve started a campaign to gradually increase interest rates from historic lows on June 30. Since then, it's lifted its key short-term federal funds rate to 2.00% and is widely expected to rise it again at its next meeting Dec. 14. In view of this changing interest rate scenario, the survey shows CEOs are now looking at other borrowing venues, such as private placements and venture capital investors, with 35% of the companies exploring non-bank financing options in the next 12 months, up from 25% in the previous quarter.
PriceWatwerhouseCoopers report.
reuters.

van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004

"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."


getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..


melbourne farmacia 22:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
KL - morning... nice gbp run overnight... I still don't have a sell signal as yet. Maybe 1.9430 ish first. GT

Syd 22:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australia has lost its place as the leading economy among developed countries in terms of growth. Gross domestic product grew by only 0.3 per cent in the September 2004 quarter. Household consumption and business investment rose, but property investment, exports and productivity declined. The Australian Government's forecast of 3.5 per cent growth in 2004-05 is now in doubt. A rise in interest rates in early 2005 is also unlikely
SMH


KL KL 22:17 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw out gbpusd +4 at 47...will reshort higher...seems momentum is there to push it higher..imho...Japan/Asia time to wake up

Tallinn viies 21:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
so, higher high again.moved stop to 1,3269.
resistance at 1,3360/65; 1,3410/15 and 1,3460/65.
will buy euros near 1,3290/95.
good luck thts it for today
good night

KL KL 21:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Top of the day all...a quick look at the world and crude down $3 biggie....look at charts...unbelieveable...looking at gbpusd...unreal...that is where my tight sl is good...I can now SHORT gbpusd at 1.9351...this has to end soon....maybe today after NFP...must be good trading again

Tallinn viies 21:32 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hannover - is it you who talked euro up from 0,85?

Stockholm AGuy 21:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
You know you're tired when you read "Hannover" and think it says "hangover". But you know you still don't want to go snooze when you look at EUR/USD and see a funny spike in itcoinciding with the US market close...

Syd 21:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CAD Yield Spread Over US Bonds Hits Lowest Since 2000

Gen dk 21:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

EU ZORRO 21:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   

...Good evening Hannover....!!!!

Gen dk 21:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

wellington am 21:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
bugger, i forget to press play. lol.

Hannover 21:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening, Everyone!

Tallinn viies 21:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Geneva 20:55 GMT - yes, but it is enough to satisfy my techs.
after NYC close today stops trailed higher, just under 1,3270 then we will see real strengh. if low taken out, I get rid of longs. simple like that

London. 21:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The Euro Finally Gives
LINK

Brisbane PhD 20:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD 1.3324. Initial stop: 1.3294.

Geneva 20:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 20:48 GMT December 1, 2004

For the last few days the euro made a new high of about 5pips
its not that impolsive to me.

London 20:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia's plan to increase oil output 14% over next few years to more than 13 million barrels a day should lower prices significantly, said Saudi Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal, chairman of Kingdom Holding Co. "There's no doubt there's an element of fear involved in the high price right now," he said "Once those fears have been eliminated, the price of oil will stabilize to a reasonable price in the mid-30s." He also said that as an international investor, he is not worried about a crisis ensuing as the value of the U.S dollar falls, but he thinks it has fallen enough. "We prefer to have stability whereby the dollar doesn't fall any further," Bin Talal said.
AP

Syd 20:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim yep

Tallinn viies 20:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I cant see anything on my charts what can stop euro here...
first resistance at 1,3410/15. next at 1,3460/65.
happy hunting.
stops under 1,3220

Bruxville Jim 20:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Syd 20:38 GMT // "Today" you mean Dec 02?

Bruxville Jim 20:43 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, 1.3333 in EUR/USD is the psychological 0.7500 USD/EUR mark...

Geneva 20:39 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
For what its worth, but 1.3335 is exactly 1.382 time wave 1.

Geneva 20:39 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
For what its worth, but 1.3335 is exactly 1.382 time wave 1.

Syd 20:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Options expireing today not sure how they will play out with the BOJ
JPY 101.50(lge)
JPY 102.00(lge).
E/JPY135.3(lge).
E/JPY136.4(lge).

wellington am 20:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
hmmm. I'm looking at the euro/usd 15 min chart, and there seems to be some tension building. There are repeated attempts to seriously push through the 3320 mark, with a break out to the topside seeming the more likely scenario - anyone?

Bonn Karl 20:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
2005 will see further USD weakness

OK SZ 20:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
try these trades..
short usd/jpy at 102.32 stop at 102.89- target 101.55
long usd/jpy at 103.45 stop at 102.87- target 104.25

London. 20:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Geneva nice to see, I recall back in '92 calls for a higher and higher GBP, it took one statement from Bundesbank chief Helmut Schlesingeror many have been Chief Economist Otmar Issing that Sterling was overvalued and two days later it crashed. For 05 , the USD will be increasing rates, I was listening this morning to Saudi Prince on the USD and as he said it will be decades before countries like china can complete with the US and that Europe have a lot of internal structures to complete.

"High interest rates will force Britain further into recession, speculators dumped the pound. The weight of speculative capital moving out of sterling was too great even for the combined EC reserve to counter. " Extracts from 92

____
nyc grumpy 14:41 perhaps you need someone to explain the relevane of some of the information posted on here, to put which currency it relates to and if its neg or pos.

Gen dk 20:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Geneva 20:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
As longer it will take, as harder it will fall.
Getting closer and closer to the end, and the carpet is full of bull euros. the same peoples that sold the euro at 0.85 buying over 1.30. I am glad to see that next year will be the year of the DOLLAR. Happy trading all.

Philadelphia CABA 19:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp again close to support at 6895

SanFrancisco tg 19:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Industrial Production y/y as of Dec 1 2004 prior to NY session open ...

US : 5.2%

France : Minus 1.2%



If you think the US dollar is weak because the US economic sky is falling you need to see a priest. If you think its because a few soldiers were rough with a few terrorists you need to see a head doctor.

Sydney Ge11Ja 19:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Morning all

Oil having a nice drop today, will have an impact on commodities, This could be prompt market to sell eur and eur/yen. Aud stabilising before next fall which will hit NZD harder
have a good day

GL n GT

Helsinki iw 19:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
My sentiments exactly.

gold coast martin 19:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   


Helsinki iw 19:16 GMT December 1, 2004
lol..........

Helsinki iw 19:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
No I wont bother with you anymore, suits me fine. Before we terminate the discussion just tell do hedge funds pay you for the same trades you post here?

gold coast martin 19:14 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 19:08 GMT December 1, 2004
If only you knew....and dont reply in that arrogant manner..you dont know me from a bar of soap....or what i do or who i am....dont bother replying...

NJ RT 19:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Maybe the 0.6890 is the lowest that EUR/GBP will go ...hopefully.

Chicago CME 19:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Yellen speaking the Fed's current mantra. No comments on the dollar that I can see but did say that "sluggish overseas growth fuels trade gap".

Helsinki iw 19:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Well there´s data and data. If true that Asian governement institutions are not willing to buy US paper at the same rate anymore, and bearing in mind the need for external financing, then there´s your data. On top of which you have Easy Al and Snow clearly guiding the markets. A set of leading indicators dont add up to much compared to that. Hedge Funds are a big factor, but they do not own FX, it´s much too big and the HF players are way to fragmented and not working together. On the contrary, no hedge fund will give up it´s secrets, so someone else can copy their business model.
You do not know what you are talking about.

Halifax CB 19:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Just briefly scanned the beige book; lots of "mixed" and "uneven" adjectives used to describe the economy, which one would normally think would cause some USD slippage. But in this market, maybe it's a signal to go long.....

Chicago CME 19:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Not sure what to read into the Beige Book..... But pound, euro, swiss and can$ are slightly better offered. No doubt the dips will be bought going into the close.

gold coast martin 19:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 18:56 GMT December 1, 2004
NOT everything....just daily signs that have occured since euro broke 130...ignoring all data, non-correlation between pairs....etc.... i just believe what i know.....hard to deviate from it.....g/t

San Diego DC 19:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez :
Your target for EUR/USD of 1.34 is in the ball park of the measured move I have in the 1.3370-1.3380 area. If this target is reached before Friday then there is possibility of an extension to 1.34-1.3430 area .
According to time cycle study that I am working on, Friday's NY close (Dec 3rd) will determine if the change in direction (retracement with EUR)will begin on Dec 6th or possibly Dec7th. For position trading, I wouldn't short it before Friday's close unless one has very wide stops.

Chicago CME 18:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I think unleaded and natgas are the interesting ones. My guess is that they have a bigger impact on the costs that need to be absorbed by businesses/consumers. If unleaded can get back below 1.10 and natgas below 7.00 then that could give a real kick to the economy and put an even stronger pressure on the fed to raise rates. Efffect on the buck? Too complicated for me to figure out....

Helsinki iw 18:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
martin, do you really take the events of the past few hours as evidence that funds are manipulating the market? Unreal.

gold coast martin 18:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 18:43 GMT December 1, 2004
Now someone can argue about this not been a fund manipulated market.....lol....

Chicago CME 18:43 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
No discernable impact on FX due to plunge in crude nor from gold coming off its highs.

Helsinki iw 18:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The dollar may be crashing due to American inefficency: a local weekly is running a story on how US soldiers made Iraqi prisoners eat pork, drink alcohol and have sex in order to make them cooperative. Here people find it completly dumbfounding. It sounds to us like the office Christmas party.

Mysore forexveda 18:34 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
All currencies may find a temp bottom tomorrow if not today. euro below 1.34 pound below 1.94. Planning start shorting euro around 1.3350

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I see little to no use for fundamentals on USD as of late, you may as well disregard them along with their "logic"
altogether so as to not contaminate your trading. €/$ chart shows no sign (yet) of shorting but historically the big dips from big peaks (one of which is now obviously forming) don't give "warning"..they just plunge when they feel like it..rising from 1000 to 1,500 pips "above" their bases for this pair before the first major. The base could be interpreted as 1.2200 or as 1.2000 (depending on what you call a base).

IMPORTANT: A 2 to 5 week period consisting of clusters of 3 to 10 day - 450 pip range volitile periods is the usual scenario when a big peak forms for this pair. Outstanding profits to be made (or lost if you get on the wrong side). See 3 year chart: 1/12/2004 - 3/02/2004 AND 5/27/03 - 6/27/03

Lisbon JP 18:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR is preparing a new atack to 1.333...

pd cumino 18:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP. Ccys move always accordingly with tech indicators.
Precisely they move accordingly with at least one of the hundreds of conflicting and opposite signals.

Stockholm AGuy 18:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso 18:06 GMT: "very good example how good news are converted into bad news in the twisted mind of this bearish market"

Thanks! That's the idea: wen the market prophets have their mind set to it, they can spin pretty much anything to support their view.

Boca Raton 18:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
And capital flows have nothing to do with it.

Lagos 18:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, 38% From the days highs (these GBP pairs ur talkin about)?

Zurich Picasso 18:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
agrred on

Dallas GEP 18:07 GMT December 1, 2004

Zurich Picasso 18:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Agreed. This GBP rally cant be inexhaustable, considering that news weren't all that breathtaking.

Makassar Alimin 18:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
i am still holding my view that only a direct break into 1.89 handle for gbp is bearish, note also that both euro and gbp are consolidating now near the top, should this continue tomorrow i think dollar is ready for new low

beige book and yellen's speak are next

Dallas GEP 18:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Let me say that often ccy's will trade against technical indicators even in extremely OVERBOUGHT situations as in the case of the GBP pairs still continuing to long. HOWEVER. technicals can't be ignored and they WILL adjust back down . More more often than not the LONGER they have been trading against the indicators the MORE severe the correction. The reason for this is that bigger players will enter when they have some confirmation the potential move that is contrary to their intended direction has been exhausted. IMO we are entering that ZONE now on all GBP pairs. SHOULD see shorts begin to appear tonight and at least a 38% retracement. AGAIN IMO

Zurich Picasso 18:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 18:01 GMT December 1, 2004

By the way, this is very good example how good news are converted into bad news in the twisted mind of this bearish market.

Zurich Picasso 18:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 18:01 GMT December 1, 2004

IMHO, very low probability on last 3 arrows :)
Curently interest rate hikes by fed are dollar positive.

Stockholm AGuy 18:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso 17:47 GMT: "There is no way good NFP could be dolar negative"

Just for fun, try this: Oh no, more people working -> the economy is picking up -> the Fed will have to raise rates to get back to neutral -> bonds will fall -> foreigners will sell their bonds -> the dollar will fall!

Tallinn viies 17:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
read from somewhere that by the G-20 dollar should weaken further but most against the GBP and YEN. and less against the euro. and that what is going on right now

Zurich Picasso 17:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
over-bearish.

Zurich Picasso 17:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:55 GMT December 1, 2004

It's not a secret that dolar over-bullish market tends to ignore good news from US. But that doesn't mean that these news are bad for usd in general (or in a long run).
This blind run is very speculative and is apt to end. Sooner or later.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
For article I found/pasted regarding €/$ @ 1.40, see Help Forum: quito_ecuador_valdez 02:54 GMT November 18, 2004
I sold €s (A € CD which matured in the Carribean) last Friday AM because I've more more trust in my model than the article I pasted. I jumped the calculated "gun"..we'll see how much..I predicted I'd "jump the gun" by max of 200 pips however (max before dip = 1.34). That bank btw (not my local one!) robbed me of a 46 pip spread however..typical of bank slime, & who just lost me as a depositor.

Paris MAXX 17:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes I know Dallas but I was down a big figure and fed up with it ...I cut at 1.9310...if it goes to 1.9340 I will reinstate it,,

Makassar Alimin 17:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Zurich Picasso 17:47 GMT December 1, 2004

perhaps that was a wrong way to interpret it, but was that what happened with the last NFP, in fact it was a very very good and unexpected number and yet dollar was sold off?

Makassar Alimin 17:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Paris MAXX 17:45 GMT December 1, 2004

no mate, i wouldn't even think of intervention anymore this year...they are pretty hopeless in that department, people have been talking about intervention since euro 1.29 and usd/jpy 105 and we haven't seen any, they will come when there is no more talks about it, so if you want to see one, just forget about it for a while and when you see some fireworks display, u know they are there :)

Tallinn viies 17:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
crude is down almost 4% fwiw

Dallas GEP 17:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
MAXX your short cable possie was more or less the same as a eur/gbp long possie the way the possies are reacting today.

Zurich Picasso 17:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:42 GMT December 1, 2004

There is no way good NFP could be dolar negative (at least not for the reasons u mentioned).

Paris MAXX 17:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Makkasar you are right,but I feel that if there is going to be any intervention it will come on Friday...

Chicago CME 17:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn: it sure looks like its going that way. EVERY dip in the pound is getting bought.

Makassar Alimin 17:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Friday's data are getting harder to be interpreted, bad NFP will result in $ sell-off again but good one like last time was also interpreted negative to the economy as more people got employed which means more capacity to spend and therefore potentially more damaging to the deficit number, is this correct? heck it is confusing

Tallinn viies 17:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Im expecting next push high during IMM close

Paris MAXX 17:40 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hope you are right Dallas GEP...i just bought euro/stg here and cut out my short euro/$ and cable positions...

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
OK eur/gbp support being tested at 6890/91. That will hold if gbp doesn't long much past it's daily high HERE. AT that level tho, EUR/USD will have a tendancy to pip up itself.

Athens 17:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Mysore, before I leave and to avoid a possible misunderstanding, I am not expecting the currencies to rally but to fall (USD up). Out for good now.

pd cumino 17:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino 22:10 GMT November 21, 2004
LDN. My humble advice is that may be worth to spend 1 minute to look at GBP CHF next days/weeks………
pd cumino 20:31 GMT November 21, 2004……..among the majors the most promising cross, all being equal, is surely GBP/CHF, actually extremely oversold with the early signs of change. G/L.

Mysore forexveda 17:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, yes I do expect a rally to 1.3750 but not within next 10 to 15 days. I expect a U turn sometime in Mid January.

Athens 17:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CME, a pleasure. OK I am off now, good luck everyone.

Chicago CME 17:17 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Athens. Your thoughts are always appreciated.

Athens 17:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CME, yes, I haven't changed my view. Besides, my "buy $/CHF on dips" morning call hasn't let me down.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:14 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Just time for a short post..gotta run..
Remember all the soothsayers saying intervention comes @ €/$ 1.32 - what a pain threshold it would be for EU? I guess one could file that jazz in the recycle bin. Chart shows no sign of shorting.

By my €/$ model however as posted this fall, 1.34 = viable upper area for a peak, followed of course by a dip of 250-500 pips. If we don't peak tat 1.35 however, take time off FX for Christmas because all FX theory/paranoia vis a vis interventions proposed this year on this pair would be totally invalid. LOL

Closed my 1.2420 €/$ @ 1.3181 btw last Fri London session (offshore of Ecuador)..sitting comfortably now on profits waiting for the inevitable dip. I may have to bring my lunch...may take longer than I (or anyone else) thought. GT..will be online for 1 hour max...lurking. Q's..address to Help Forum. Sorry I haven't answered my email..no time.

Chicago CME 17:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Athens: even with cable up here does your gut still tell you that currencies may break this week?

Dallas Mauricio 17:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I'm done for the day with this cable rocket. I am up 1.5x my daily goal with +75 pips & I overslept today! GL to all & keep your stops.

Bye Grumpy!

Athens 17:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Re my 11:33 in the morning, cable has reached and tested that fairly tough projection 1.9305-10. If decisively cleared. my next projected resistance is 1.93355 and the O/B (for today) region 1.9365-95. Note that both GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY have already reached my O/B levels for the day and this could hold cable back if the other currencies can't make gains v. USD. For those interested in long term charts here is a GBP/USD 20 year monthly chart to-date.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Makassar Alimin 16:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Mysore forexveda 16:52 GMT December 1, 2004

do you expect euro to rally 300-400 pips more to 1.3750 in the next couple weeks or so?

Halifax CB 16:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
You aren't alone, KL. But I tend to hold for the longer term...BTW - it does seem to slow down to catch it's breath every 100 pips or so...GL/GT

KL KL 16:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out cable short at 98 + 13...still have power to go up...I am not sticking around on this rocket pound

Mysore forexveda 16:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, Pound may find a temperory to around 1.9400 and We can expect a nice pull back and consolidation inext few days. Volume is thin after 20th December and we normally see strong one sided movements. I expect euro to peak around 1.3750 and Pound to touch 1.19 before te year end. Year 2005 should be the year of US dollar IMHO

toronto dr.unken kat 16:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
cable target at 9323

KL KL 16:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Nobody shorting cable here..well I am in 1.9311

Hong Kong Phooey 16:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
oops forgot about that war on terror, better buy more cable...

Makassar Alimin 16:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
anyone wants to call 1.95 for cable for this run?

Chicago CME 16:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I wonder what David Bloom at HSBC says about cable now? Is he still of the view "not in my lifetime" will cable see $2.00.

Chicago CME 16:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
"DJ: Pentagon Sending more troops to Iraq ahead of elections". A further dollar negative?

Juneau CAR 16:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Silver took off on its own? Almost $8 and up .20 this morning.

Gold and the dollar which it almost always follows is not a factor this morning. Probably massive short covering and a reality it is being used at the same rate as the other industrial commodities. ?

http://www.kitco.com/market/

Chicago CME 16:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like some stops just got taken out in cable.

gold coast martin 16:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004
I dont blame them at all.,...i just take their money ...win win for me.....good trades and please post more often....your posts are highly valued...g/t

gold coast martin 16:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The rest of this little club are a prominent branch....i dont think i would be parking my retirement fund with any of these guys.....still they pay plenty for forex advice!!!!,,,lol

GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
marint the forex market is to big to be manupilated the way you describe nothing to do with the oil market.there too many participants and dont blame hedge funds they provide huge liquidity and you would not have the spread you have these days.In the old days when banks the main liquidity provider the usual spreads where 10 pips and when real moves where coming 50to100pips where normal.

Helsinki iw 16:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I´ll take your word martin, I don´t know better. But investors do get scary these days about manager style drift, so it doesn´t necessarily pay in the longer run.

Makassar Alimin 16:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
another nice rally by gbp, it is on steroid

gold coast martin 16:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 16:22 GMT December 1, 2004
When you have no performance in your other ventures and you are looking to square your books, what is the easiest and quickest way to do it....form a joint venture with other funders and place a sure bet on the forex and futures market....i posted this info about joint venture of funds into oil a while ago on GVI....i wouldnt post if i didnt know...made good money out of last oil venture.....g/t

KL KL 16:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SAR at 1.9284 sl 7 above....+24 out again at 79 +5...+29 is good in this amazing run pound run

Halifax CB 16:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki Seems like "special opportunities" covers it all, doesn't it ?

Belfast TT 16:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp waiting for buy @ .6897 s/l .6870 tp .6966

Helsinki iw 16:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
"Founded in 1992 by Henry Swieca and Glenn Dubin, Highbridge Capital Management is a New York-based, $7 billion, multi-strategy hedge fund organization that employs approximately 160 people with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. The fund operates with seven discrete strategy groups: global convertible arbitrage, event-driven equity arbitrage, statistical arbitrage, structured private investments, European special situations, long-short equity, and special opportunities."

You sure martin? None of those strategies incorporate commodities or currencies.

Chicago CME 16:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like euro is caught in a tug of war between weak swiss and strong pound. swiss drags euro lower, pound sees some buying and the euro goes bid again. At least that's what the price action in the futures are telling me.

Philadelphia CABA 16:19 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004
WEll maybe a TAD early but I am long NOW at 6906 on eur/gbp

GEP, may I ask you on your s/l, please?

Tallinn viies 16:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
mentioning oil here only because last big wave on financial markets started all at same time.
take look at nasdaq100, eurusd and crude oil.
all those formed bottoms or tops at 25-28 of october
fwiw

KL KL 16:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
call me crazy but i am long gbpusd at 1.9260 sl 7 below...have to test if it has legs to go to 1.93..maybe some k.o option there....

gold coast martin 16:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
There are a number of funds that will exit between 16-19 of december due to their trading perimeter constraints....large volumes....these were funds that were involved in oil a while ago and were first ones to initially exit causing 4 big figure drop .....one of them will be highbridge capital....i dont mind naming them...they had a good run at the expense of smaller traders...manipulating the market long enough....g/t

Tallinn viies 16:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
last time when US oil stocks were at current levels crude taded at 43. fwiw

Gen dk 16:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 16:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
So all US Data out should be USD +ve but markets differ...Can someone tell me which currecy has not hit all time high yet?...I can only think of Aussie Battler....so longing it may make sense. Pound is looking juicier by the minute...its is like energizer...when will it give up...Never??

FloridA vv 16:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 16:01 GMT December 1, 2004
FloridA vv 15:19 GMT - I bought also :)
Sorry I missed your buy.. You understand that was an innocent joke, nothing personal. Since 2001 always've been tracking your posts as a lead. Thanx, and keep up a good job.
GT

Helsinki iw 16:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CTA:s have bounced back remarkably during the past 2-3 months, the Tremont managed futures sub-strategy index is down only 0,59% YTD at end of October. Novemeber looks to be another great month for this strategy. Of course the index is only a headline number.

http://www.hedgeindex.com/index.cfm?indice=200

Paris MAXX 16:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Chicago....I will cover Euros on a break of 1.3330...

gold coast martin 16:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
This is the reason why i have been adding euro shorts since 129......g/t

Chicago CME 16:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Paris: my personal Risk/Reward would be to cover and then short on the break lower. Path of least resistance remains up until proven otherwise. IMHO

Tallinn viies 16:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 15:19 GMT - I bought also :)
first sold half than bough back half of half.
then sold half of the remaining...
position getting smaller.
will buy again near 1,3280/85

Paris MAXX 15:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hope you are right Chicago CME...I am short of Euros and cable..about 50 points out right now ...

Chicago CME 15:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland: Done! beers are on me.

Chicago CME 15:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Euro getting sold again. Break of 1.3290 and i think 1.3230 is back on the cards.

Oakland daimyo 15:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 15:50 GMT December 1, 2004

Thanks for the info. I will contact you when I come to Chicago. Gonna be there interviewing a couple of floor brokers as I am ramping up my operation to include futures/options. I'm not a fan of the OTC FX options. Prefer the Merc

Makassar Alimin 15:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004

i share your view mate, however i also keep in my mind that there would have to get out at some point to realise the profit and when they do, it would not be good for the late comers, however the notorious question remains, when?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Austin rb 15:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Trying to follow eur/gbp where did the -50 occur I can see the +30 on chart

Chicago CME 15:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland: YES. That's exactly what we are seeing. Every dip is an opportunity to add to long ccy positions. But they are also raising their stops faster than they did in Feb. They are not going to give back 30-40% of their accumulated gains from this run! So when the tide turns i think it will be vicious.

Oakland daimyo 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CTA's and Hedge Funds had a tough year. They're not in any hurry to stop current trends before the new year. They're trying to ride this thing as long as possible. Many need to makeup the losses they incurred during slow, choppy summer months. "The trend is your friend" takes on a new meaning for these guys/gals. Market shrugging off USD positive news is a major sell signal as mkt participants are viewing current economic data as merely a nuisance. Also, CB's are mostly talk at this point. IMHO

lax-lgb SNP 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dan my man ! hope you're having as much fun as me
SNP 19:14 GMT November 29, 2004
time to long £/¥ draws closer as this month ends ;-)

p.s.
hey guyz i got 6 gmail invites too ... get my email from jay if ya need one

Gen dk 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
WEll maybe a TAD early but I am long NOW at 6906 on eur/gbp

Dallas Mauricio 15:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I got the oil info. Thanks.

Paris MAXX 15:40 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
How low will crude drop before a rebound?

Chicago CME 15:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Crude Stocks +1.256m bbl. Distillates +4.438m bbl

Dallas Mauricio 15:36 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know the oil data? TIA

NJ RT 15:36 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Similar situation ... had mine closed @6910 -50. I am still hoping that 6880-90 will be the bottom of it so I can go long again ... for the profit this time.

HoChiMinh MI 15:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
sorry about that!

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
YEP CABA....I think I will if GBP will stop longing

Global-View 15:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
HCM MI 15:29 GMT December 1, 2004 (and others) Please use a recognizable lcoation. TIA for your cooperation.

Philadelphia CABA 15:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT December 1, 2004
OK closed eur/gbp shorts @ 6910 (-50 and +30 for net -20)

Will you enter long trade?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

prague viktor 15:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:17 GMT December 1, 2004 ..
G.day mate! Im glad to see that Im not the only USD buyer at this level G/T

HCM MI 15:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD = QCOM circa '99 It's the bubble all over again =) Is there a dearth of liquidity over at the BOE? What is this madness? fun fun fun lol!

Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
OK closed eur/gbp shorts @ 6910 (-50 and +30 for net -20)

Gen dk 15:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

FloridA vv 15:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
11/16, 1/32/ 1/64 He he

GER ad 15:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable at 1.9285
FloridA vv 15:19,
1/2;1/4;1/8...

Madrid Paco 15:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Can some one please tell me what the 3 month libor was for yesterday?

Gracias in advance

Makassar Alimin 15:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
cable i think has the potential to reverse in a wild fashion, but question is when and under what condition...at the moment need to respect the trend, higher high tick by tick

FloridA vv 15:19 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 15:16 GMT December 1, 2004
How many halves of Eur do you have bro? for the last 48 hours it was the third one allready ;)

Dallas Mauricio 15:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Cable went BOOM AGAIN!

gold coast martin 15:17 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Adding more euro shorts at 13320+ LEVEL....g/t

Tallinn viies 15:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
sold half of my euros at 1,3321.
fwiw

Chicago CME 15:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I don't know how the spot mkt has been trading since last night but IMM (pit and globex2) has been very choppy. Not a matter of low volume but just very 'jumpy' prices.

Dublin Flip 15:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Grumpy you must get upset at having to read every sentence in your newspaper. Most of us just skim them in five minutes and read what suits (usually nothing).
Anyway have good day ahead mate.

Paris MAXX 15:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
True Alimin....either way I think the dollar will post a relief recovry by end of week...

Budapest Daniel 15:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Don't you think that nowadays' data do not have any or a small effect on the market?

Makassar Alimin 15:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
those data are more or less considered usd bullish, aren't they? but still no usd rally yet...perhaps friday's data are the most waited ones?

Chicago CME 15:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Shortly after the figure came out IMM euro saw decent volume selling from 1.3320 all the way down to 1.3302. Now attempting to recover.

OK SZ 15:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
grumpy, that sounds like a good idea for you, you ole grump

Paris MAXX 15:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good bye Grumpy!!

bombay a 15:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks stockholm a guy

nyc grumpy 15:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
dublin flip -

then why not just a headline and/or link?

actually instead of not reading them, perhaps it might be better to ignore the forum altogether.

GVI john 15:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM components
new orders 61.5 vs 58.3
production 57.0 vs 58.9
employment 57.6 vs 54.8
inventories 50.7 vs 48.2
prices 74.0 vs 78.5

Chicago CME 15:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like prices Index component a tad better than Oct at 74.0 but still at an elevated level. fwiw.

Stockholm AGuy 15:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM Prices Paid, I mean!

Stockholm AGuy 15:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
bombay a 15:00 GMT:

ISM: 74 vs. 75.3 expected.

Dublin Flip 15:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Grumpy being a 24hour market and the fact that most people actually sleep one of the values of these forums is that one can sift through the archieve and recap on all the news that has occured when one is away. It also surprising how much news gets discarded as irrelevant but turns out to be valid big picture building. Just as seeing a plethora of buy or sell recommendations can be contrarian indicators a daily plethora of similar/currency comments can be counter-intuitively useful (see the German chorus of a couple of weeks ago)
If you don't like news posts don't read them.

bombay a 15:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks

GVI john 15:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 15:01 GMT December 1, 2004
ISM 57.8 vs. 56.8, a bit better than expected.

Paris MAXX 15:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
57.8

Chicago CME 15:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
57.8

bombay a 15:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
what was ism data ?????????????????

Chicago CME 15:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dec Gold looks like it wants to make another run at $455.

Paris MAXX 14:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
If I had to go long of YEN I think that I would do it against the pound rather than the dollar...

Lndn Frnd 14:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
any one can give me website of MMS

nyc snowhite 14:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
nyc grumpy!!!
What next? nyc droopy?.....grow up..{no pun intended}
...

FloridA vv 14:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Loony holds 1.1940. We need a catalist to throw it above 1.1930. Hope these data
2004.12.01 10:00 US Oct Construction Spending 0.7% 0.0%
2004.12.01 10:00 US Nov Manufacturing ISM 57.0 56.8
will help
Cble shorts look very tempting. 5 min chart is forming a diamond and indicators pointing south.
GT

Dallas Mauricio 14:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I see that you live up to your nickname.

nyc grumpy

Livingston nh 14:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CME - i have a rather simplistic view of the swissy as a conduit currency not as a destination so I picture funds coming out of swissy into others (e.g. cable) - maybe the bunds rally bringing funds into EUR from CHF??

NYC NYC 14:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
nyc grumpy - Not everyone has access to all the news so we should not discourage info being posted. I agree to avoid the long stories being posted and rather see links to them instead.

Makassar Alimin 14:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
anybody knows what's the agenda of all the talks by fed's officials this week? if i remember correctly, last time when yellen spoke, dollar was sold off

Tallinn viies 14:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
DJ Congress May Vote To Open Part Of Alaska Reserve To Oil -Abraham

btw oil stocks in 45 minutes

Paris MAXX 14:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Why di you choose us/yen GEP?

Makassar Alimin 14:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
hmm, seems like everyone is buying dollar, it won't happen this way, too many cries, should see some more stretch

Dallas GEP 14:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
OK shorted usd/jpy @ 102.82 stop @ 103.21

Chicago CME 14:43 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Livingston. Also, whats up with swissy? Any reason for it to lag the euro?

nyc grumpy 14:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Could we please cease and desist from the practice of cutting and pasting stale, old news items on this forum? Most of this stuff is hours old and any one with any desire to read it will have done so long ago. This is especially true of dome of the posts that go on and on forever.

Livingston nh 14:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME - cable held on after the EUR cracked - cable was the last to break below 200 da sma - it is playing catch up again

Chicago CME 14:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
In our morning meeting another trader was talking about how he noticed similar price action back in Feb where cable continued to make new highs while the euro lagged and finally both pairs turned lower. Any truth in that?

NJ RT 14:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
From AP:

A senior Japanese Finance Ministry official said Wednesday that joint intervention by Japan and European countries in the currency markets was possible as the dollar rapidly weakens.

Hiroshi Watanabe, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Japanese officials were ready to "take action" if needed. He added Tokyo was also in close contact with European authorities.

"There has been a lot of discussion about the level of cooperation between Japan and Europe (concerning currencies)," Watanabe said. "We are cooperating closely and it is possible for us to take joint action if necessary, but it depends on a lot of factors."

Currency market players have been speculating that the authorities may buy dollars to stem the greenback's fall, perhaps even intervening together for extra effect.

Chicago CME 14:30 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Just ran some stops here on IMM Can$. Lets see if spot can break below 1.1850....

NJ RT 14:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thank you all ....

Philadelphia CABA 14:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all to you guys for eurgbp comment.

Paris MAXX 14:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes I agree think we will bottom out near 0.6900...I am looking to buy some down there...

Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi M and Caba. Eur/gbp........well obviously that has gone SHORTER than expected because of GBP's long run. Had a stop and reverse at 6940 which got hit and of course taken while I was away from board so thus far that has resulted in @ -50 pips and a +25 pips for a net -25. That 6900/05 is STRONG support so that should hold with perhaps a top now near 6970. GBP I think still has legs but EURO should start to long also so bottom probably holds.

Belfast TT 14:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp big resistance @ .6895 and bigger @ .6875. Will probably attempt .6895 and fail before back up towards .6965

Philadelphia CABA 14:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I hope so!!

NJ RT 14:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Folkas, any comments on EUR/GBP ... did we see the bottom YET ???

Dallas Mauricio 14:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin: From Forexnews.com

Cable Rockets to 12-yr High

The sterling soared to its highest level in over a decade, rising to 1.9260 on a combination of robust UK economic data, and yesterday's upbeat comments from BoE Governor King. Earlier in the session, UK's CIPS/Reuters manufacturing PMI jumped to its highest level since July at 55.0, beating both last month's figure at 53.5 and consensus forecasts of a dip to 52.5. The output index rose to 57.2, while the new orders component edged up to 55.1. The unexpectedly strong UK manufacturing data provided additional fuel to propel the sterling to a 12-yr high versus the greenback.

Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
common on.
higher euro.
getting tired here.
or give me lower euro for accumulation reasons but dont stand here

Paris MAXX 14:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
i THINK WE HAVE SEEN THE HI FOR CABLE...LOOKING FOR A RETRACEMENT BELOW 1.91 BY END OF THIS WEEK...

San Diego DC 14:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
EUR charts are now set up to the possibility of new highs.

Dallas Mauricio 14:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP!

lahore pakistan mano 14:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
wat are the expectations 0f GBP/USD next two days

Philadelphia CABA 13:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, comment on eurgbp, please?

lahore mano 13:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
wat are the expectations of gbp/usd

Philadelphia CABA 13:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Morning GEP

Dallas GEP 13:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Morning all.

London 13:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
US Personal Spending +0.7% In Oct; Consensus +0.5% Personal Income +0.6% In Oct; Consensus +0.5%

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
for those who need it:
personal spending +0.7 vs +0.5
personal income +0.6 vs 0.5
sep spending unrevised
sep income unrevised

gold coast martin 13:39 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....Keep aneye on swiss and gbp pairs.....g/t

Livingston nh 13:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD still having trouble getting thru 21 da sma - bounced off this level four times in last two month -- ah, but this time it's different (maybe) -- long for a close above the 119.25 level w/ a move to the 55 da ema in the next week (s/l 1.1855)

GER ad 13:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable,
1/2 position closed at 1.2927
S/L for the rest moved at cost

prague jv 12:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
will be on selling side if 1.3273

sydney gvm 12:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
viies I agree

Tallinn viies 12:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
euro has stayed over 5 day exp moving average from G-20.
seems strenght to me

sydney gvm 12:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Selling USD-CHF here @ 1.1422 with stop @ 1.1455 - looking ofr break of 1.1355 in next 12 hours

Johannesburg Morne 12:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 12:28 GMT December 1, 2004

Which part of JHB are you trading from?

Surabaya Medallion 12:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Upward for USD/CHF to 1.138?

gold coast martin 12:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 12:29 GMT December 1, 2004
Agree...i have a 11432 level..over this level chf should start to load with funds re-directed to swissie from gbp ending this phase of the gbp upleg.....g/t

prague jv 12:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf deserve some atention . Above 1.1414 is start for mid term up movment . This time looks constructive . gl

Johannesburg Merlin 12:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin

Johannesburg Merlin 12:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Surefire!

Why are you trading to a profit-target?
I assume that is what you mean, to close your long out at 3330?

Best wishes.



gold coast martin 12:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 12:22 GMT December 1, 2004
...its safe haven status is considered a better cross play by funds than the aud,nzd,chf and cad.....lots of flows destined from these currencies have gone into the sterling in last week....g/t

SBN surefire 12:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
We are currently placing a long trade on eur/usd at 1.3250 with 100 millions size. stop-loss 1.3190, target 1.3330.

Philadelphia CABA 12:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone! GT to all!

Johannesburg Merlin 12:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi there everybody!

As pure system traders we have picked up on the GBP rally here at 8930 and still in and enjoying the ride. However, sometimes for the sake of interest it would be nice to know the fundamental reason for this.

Please guys, any reason why the GBP and only the GBP is having such an amazing rally this past two days?

Thanks guys.
GLGT

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 12:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
have a good trading day this week everyone.

gl
TIA:-)

Dallas Mauricio 12:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for being specific in your time frame of this trade.

GER ad 11:59 GMT December 1, 2004
Short Cable at 1.9261,
70-100 pips S/L for maybe 200+ pips profit on Friday close

hong kong nt 12:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD -- likely to see range .767-.785 for a while..

Dallas Mauricio 12:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone. I hope everyone has a good trading day.

GER ad 11:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable at 1.9261,
70-100 pips S/L for maybe 200+ pips profit on Friday close

Tallinn viies 11:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB rate cut would be real suprise. it could change FX landscape pretty sharply. in my opinion right now this is not on the agenda yet. keep buying euros as long as it goes up

San Diego DC 11:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM,
I just did. Thanks

LDN LDN 11:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CDC IXIS has revised its position regarding the ECB's monetary policy. Now expects the bank to cut its repo rate by 25bp over the next 6 months due to slower eurozone economic growth prospects and stable inflation at around 2%, mainly on account of still high oil prices. Euribor contracts do not price in an ECB rate cut yet.
reuters

Tokyo IM 11:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC// If you need gmail send me email via Jay.

Dublin Flip 11:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Cable is just doing catch-up (e.g. euro cable now @ .6920)
What takes Euro a couple of months to do sterling eventually does in a couple of weeks. Sterling is only 5.4% above 200day MA. It may be overdone on the short term charts but in the medium and long term picture it's still has plenty of potential (i.e. weekly RSIs are still quite consrvative).
1.95ish (the 8 year neckline) is the next acceleration level.

Athens 11:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I haven't changed my view on what I said here last night. Cable had seriously lagged and is doing now what it should have done earlier. I have a projected resistance levels 1.9235 which is still holding but at risk at the moment and stronger 1.9305-10. The Pound also picked up steam after triggering model breaks on my techs on all its crosses yesteday. Keep in mind that GBP/$ is the only pair which rarely changes direction with round tops/bottoms formations. Most often it forms ver sharp V-shaped angled turns. Personally I am npt trading cable at present. USD bears (in the other majors) are also using the cable latest strong rally to keep the USD bears defensive across the board. The action is delaying the turn but it can't stop it as far as I can tell. It's a time game now and nothing else in my opinion. Keep selling AUD/$ spikes and buying $/CHF and $/CAD dips. Good luck.

Oakland daimyo 11:30 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004
melbourne farmacia 11:19 GMT December 1, 2004

Learning to keep my big mouth shut since I trade much better when I don't post, however I thought the info might be of use to someone other than me. If you want to discuss markets, please email Jay for my email address. I will not be in this forum much. GT

Bne Cad 11:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin: What's your target for cable in December if 1.90 is broken?

Joe: I got a new dog but he can't trade :( GT

LDN. 11:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Sterling is very overbought
Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott

SanFrancisco tg 11:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
prudent can easily be pertinent at 2am

KL KL 11:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
short again at 36 out 29 that takes care of my 7 pips loss earlier...reshort higher...this gorilla has legs eh....when will it get tire??? when

melbourne farmacia 11:19 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland daimyo - take care mate & thanks.

Stockholm AGuy 11:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London 11:02 GMT:

I suspect tg means "pertinent" when he writes "prudent". He's had trouble with'em high-faluting words before...

London. 11:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Bne Cad
been good and K9 did you end up shooting him . take care GT

Bne Cad 11:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
still trading, as soon as my stop goes at 1.9240 I'm off to bed, how you been?

London. 11:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Bne cad hey there Dr. whats doing

London 11:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looking for the Aud to move under the figure whats the prospect ?

Bne cad 11:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I'm on dis one too. SAM cable 1.9225

London. 11:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg and thanks

London 11:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg the most important thing its that its information

KL KL 11:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
short 1.9226 sl 7 above

SanFrancisco tg 10:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London - your informational posts (even if a paste) have been helpful to me. Think its all been prudent. Keep em coming :)

Helsinki iw 10:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Actually, CAD is fairly close as well, 1,1960

Helsinki iw 10:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw// Know of a trading model that will turn from long to short AUD/USD today if it trades below 0,7710 at 13:00 GMT. Experince has it that these timeframes and levels tend to cluster togehter, so if there, it may have a market impact. Turning levels for the majors are still some way off.

van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London 09:55.. its just normal market psychology at play.. you'll get the usual share of later comers to bottom/top feed the markets at/near any turning points ..

Oakland daimyo.. good luck with your work & studies.. cheers

London 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
MOF's Watanabe says Japan, Europe can act on forex
Japan and Europe can act together in the foreign exchange market, Japan's top official on currency policy said on Wednesday, in one of the clearest intervention warnings from Japan authorities against the dollar's recent fall.
"Conditions are in place for Japan and Europe to be able to take harmonised action," Hiroshi Watanabe, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, told reporters.

"It is natural for Japan and Europe to act when the dollar alone is falling."

He also said he would keep cost-efficiency in mind in any possible currency intervention.



San Diego DC 10:43 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM,
I like to get the free google E-mail from you. Do u need my E-mail address to send teh info.
Thanks a lot.

London 10:42 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA if your around a round up of your views would be welcome

Gen dk 10:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland daimyo 10:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone. Have not been posting as FX and grad school have been keeping me very busy. Respect due to farmacia and Van Gecko. I've been following clever accumulation on the part of the "composite operator". It looks like the elephants have changed watering holes with Cable being the new favorite. Supply/ demand relationship favors buyers. Enough cause has been built up to effect the next upside 25 x 3 P&F target of 1.9350. Of course, nothing moves in a straight line so pullbacks are possible. However, I suggest maintaining buy on dip strats. 1.9141 this years high will become next years low IMHO GT to all

prague viktor 10:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:23 GMT December 1, 2004....
yes Sam agree with u for that I closed all my euro longs on 10/30/2004 at 12,12GMT.. and started with a small usd long this morning G/L G/T

Hong Kong Qindex 10:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

LDN. 10:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP Down From 1.9% To 1.8% For The Year

Tokyo IM 10:17 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Interesting thing is going on. Just got mail from amazon.co.jp with the subject: Higher Yen, Lower Price. I think that will motivate more Japanese people into buying goods from US and buying dollar which will make dollar stronger in return. So far my predictions work.

BTW: Does anyone need a gmail.com account (free e-mail from google) got 6 invites and do not know what to do with them.

SBN surefire 10:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
We are placing entry order at 1.3250 with 100 millions size. Stop-loss 1.3190 and target 1.3330 on eur/usd.

Ldn 10:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Disappointing data from both Japan and euro zone help to encourage more profit-taking in both EUR and JPY against USD. reuters

Hong Kong Qindex 10:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

BOJ 10:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF Watanabe: No Reason For Dlr To Weaken Further
: Euro Appreciation Vs Dlr Faster Than Yen's
Will Act If FX Moves Don't Reflect Fundamentals

NJ RT 10:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
does anybody know where this drop will stop on eur/gbp? What is holding the gbp at this high rate?

KL KL 10:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out at 05 +14...going up again?

Haifa ac 10:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Bp is having a little Buying climax!

Gen dk 10:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 10:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
short 1.9219 sl 7 above

SanFrancisco tg 09:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks much Martin, hope you have a good day.

London 09:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
what's going on with the $/can????

gold coast martin 09:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 09:47 GMT December 1, 2004
Good post TG.....G/T

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 09:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 08:44 GMT

I Maybe buy at .6888..

SanFrancisco tg 09:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
After a recent bout of maddening consolidated ranges the Euro/Usd has opened up its ranges again. While it is logical to project another bout of consolidating ranges later this month nearing the holidays, current ranges must apply until they close in.

3 key (magnetic) levels remain in my view of 1.3240, 1.3290, and 1.3330. The high/low extremities should hold. A test of 3200 is certainly possible but the figure should hold for the coming near term sessions. Probabilities favor a bounce from the 3240 area. Only a decisive break of the 3240 area would alert me to a potential real shift in bias to a sustained downside.

gold coast martin 09:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:03 GMT December 1, 2004
FWIW...Same drill as yesterday...enter swissie under 11375...exit 11432........g/t

Repeat above if same levels seen..although less frequent now than last 3 days.....

Hong Kong Qindex 09:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong B747 09:20 GMT - I am free tonight and we can have dinner together. Call me at 2572-2332.

Brisbane PhD 09:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD stopped out 1.3285. Flat.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 09:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
first support at 1,3250/55
next at 1,3230/35
Im still buillish. will buy more near 1,3260/65 level.
stop all at 1,3219.
reverse at 1,3176...
good luck

van Gecko 09:30 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
viktor 09:15 good day.. thanks.. some p/t are taking place here.. looks like some front runners wants to beat the rush.. look at gbp/chf fly!
gl..

slv sam 09:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 09:15/
you might not get your 1.34-1.35 just now!...may be last week of Dec or early Jan/05 imho.GT

Hong Kong B747 09:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon Qindex,

is it possible to meet you in HKG?
just have the will to know how legends are in life :-)

gt

prague viktor 09:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004...
G.day mate!..thanks for ur post..we are livinig now with Mr green syndrom..so we must wait...for another few days I think mate the 1,33-1,34 its the end for this move..and Im looking too like u for a sharp pull back..G/T G/L

London. 09:14 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko cheers

van Gecko 09:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London.. please watch Gold's reaction @ 445 for clue.. that said theres a good cross & inter-market bias setting up for the Conti twins..
farmacia.. thanks

melbourne farmacia 09:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy - cheers... ask Jay for my email . GT

Kamensk Andy 09:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FloridA VV 09:00 - Good Afternoon

slv sam 09:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
us$ is READY for some meaningful correction imho.GT

Ldn 09:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The German manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 52.8 in Oct, below forecasts of 52.0, and below the all-important 50.0 mark. Data indicate that the sector contracted in November, though slightly, but a surging euro does not bode well for future growth.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

melbourne farmacia 09:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko - 1.9194 projected daily high.
1.9234 overshoot selling spike if seen IMO

Ldn 09:02 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
News Highlights:German Nov Mfg PMI 49.9 Vs 52.8 Oct

really bad number

Ldn 09:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Another Downside Swing As Asia Sells

FloridA VV 09:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andrey, Privet ;)

HCM MI 08:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Oyster catcher management? Don't they make markets in seafood futures?

Kamensk Andy 08:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 08:39 - Take my congratulations! Was not so lucky in this run...What do you expect till the end of year now?

Malaga boqueron 08:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London. 08:49 GMT December 1, 2004

Sorry, multi year top in what?

van Gecko 08:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon sp..
melbourne farmacia 08:39 well done.. 1.92 sustainable?

london sylhet 08:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD 3250

FloridA VV 08:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 6890 is a strong support, may bounce from there, after that may continue to 68.
GT

Syd 08:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Aussie has to hold 7690 otherwise its Kaboom a bit lower

London. 08:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko your also see that ?

Los Angeles ss 08:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone with any thoughts on where eurousd is headed short term?

London. 08:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chris Locke Oyster Catcher Management says we could be seeing a multi year top around here. CNBC

Budapest Daniel 08:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT, I think everyone expects that it will rather go up than down now.

Chicago Goofy 08:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I only expected 30-40 pips in euro session for kiwi. 20 more for Aud. Is that the case according to ur experience and other traders? Thanks.

Chicago Goofy 08:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Martin, reenter in 70-80 area...as long as it will not break 85.

I see what you mean. When I sell, it immediately drop 9 more points. should set an limit and let it run....

You good trade and good luck. hope your short term comes true.

NJ RT 08:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Where do you folks see EUR/GBP next?

Budapest Daniel 08:40 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Of course FloridA. I would never go blindly after anyone now. :)
Thanks for your opinion.

melbourne farmacia 08:39 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
KL - covered all for 13 figures....

Hong Kong Qindex 08:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

gold coast martin 08:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy....IT IS TOO EARLY TO CLOSE..FOR ME ANYWAY....G/T

FloridA VV 08:37 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 08:28 GMT December 1, 2004
Yes Daniel, like many on this forum.
Year end, big guys have to close their books to pay fat bonuses to their employees, all Usd/xxx pairs overstratched and ask for correction, daily and weekly indicators turning $ bullish. Of course I may be mistaken. Take it just as an opinion.
GT

KL KL 08:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Not waiting just took my 10 at 1.9170...very cautious in blow off mode!! +ve better than -ve

sgp sp 08:32 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi gecko,
van Gecko 08:27 GMT December 1, 2004

You got mail :)

gl & gt

KL KL 08:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Took my 3 pip gain and reshort 1.9181.....I hope you are buying Farmacia...

wellington am 08:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Nice spike down on Kiwi - up for the day after a few false starts trying to short flightless bird.

Hey Lin, Hi from Melrose. Good to see another Wellingtonian on the board.

gold coast martin 08:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy 08:26 GMT December 1, 2004
Well done...it ensures youget to playanother day......g/t

Budapest Daniel 08:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FloridA are you expecting a big correction soon?

Wellington Lin 08:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
will be shorting EUR all the way up to 1.34 (if it gets there)

good T!

van Gecko 08:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month..

KL KL 08:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I think cable could have seen its high this hour...I sold again at 1.9165...sl 10 above ... other currency falling , gold dropping....and I don't want to miss out. Maybe her majesty BOE is coming in now with a small bouncer....during NY session maybe they are planning to hit us for SIX!!!

Chicago Goofy 08:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Martin.....I took my kiwi profit...Is it too early to close...

Any way, I made some profits like KL.....HOHO

FloridA VV 08:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Usd/Jpy will be the first one to follow Aud/Usd, There will be Usd/Cad, Eur/Usd and finally Gbp/Usd, which will be the winner - will lose 600 pips at least.

Syd 08:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone see this as a reversal here ?

KL KL 08:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Well I took my +2 pips gain from gbpusd short at 59...so gbpusd want to play eh....

farmacia, lets coordinate your buy with my sell ... I want BIG impact at your specified level...mine is around 1.9228 is where I think my hands gets very...very itchy. Did you manage to dump some at 1.9180?? I don't know how you have this nerve of steel...must be clark kent in disguise? LOL

Syd 08:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT
dont thing they are in yet nervous market 103.50 probably top until they do then 105 possible if they come in

NJ RT 08:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Syd ...you were right ...where do u see USD/JPY going today? Thank you

KL KL 08:14 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out usd chf +9 at 1.1377...was going the right way until it starting to eat my hard earned pips...maybe focus on one is better bet today!! both these have potential to be explosive!!

melbourne farmacia 08:14 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
KL - Around the 1.9234 would be nice… but just noticed linear resistance at todays high, So maybe not… still dumping old longs anyway GT

Hong Kong Qindex 08:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.


KL KL 08:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Also long usdchf at 1.1368...cannot believe so low ....who short at this level

KL KL 08:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ok short here gbpusd 1.9161 sl 15 above... a bit generous today with sl. Cannot wait ...15 min charts telling me to short

FloridA VV 08:05 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 08:00 GMT December 1, 2004
What is BOJ ?

"Band Of Jokers" or Bank Of Japan - I MISSSSSSSSS you people, where is your intervention?

BW bw 08:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Texas 12 euro cents

Chicago Goofy 08:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Very tempting, challenge your patience and belief. Martin, I am in short mode.

Texas 08:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
0.12 USD= 12 cents
0.12 EUR=? euro

KL KL 08:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Long got taken ...so flat and waiting for entry again...

Farmacia top of the day with you ... you planning to short soon?? Very tempting isn't it!!

NJ RT 08:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
What is BOJ ?

NJ RT 07:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Syd thank you .... I still have two possies open yesterday

EUR/GBP @ 0.6966 long
USD/JPY @ 102.85 long

FloridA VV 07:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Arlington 07:49 GMT December 1, 2004
Hey I'm new to the game

Arlington, P&L = Profit and Loss, Yo buy/sell a contract - in a while you get P or L

KL KL 07:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short at 68 +12 SAR and long here sl 7 below...unbelieveable trading day. Could be in blow off mode

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks to me stale AUD longs are selling in to this EUR induced rally, if EUR stalls (and please note the emphasis on "if") then we could another decent AUD drop.

FloridA VV 07:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Ysd/Jpy 102.35 - 103.20 plain fanillas expires today

KL KL 07:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9180

melbourne farmacia 07:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Next major GbpUsd tech point 1.9234ish after 1.9194

Syd 07:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT BOJ will be unhappy

Hong Kong Qindex 07:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Syd 07:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT yen is travelling south

NJ RT 07:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Syd ...why is that?

Syd 07:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
tonights the night

Arlington 07:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hey I'm new to the game and have not opened and account. if some one could explain "P&L" and how contracts effect the P&L
Thank You

Dallas GEP 07:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
OK out at BE on usd/jpy longs

Hong Kong Qindex 07:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Wellington Lin 07:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
trying to reduce the deficit by devaluing its currecy is not effective. US has to look at it's import/export structure more carefully. at this stage I think US is playing with fire --- what if bond or stock market crashes due to fear of buying US assets

KL KL 07:32 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I am out at 41 + 6 reshort at 1.9147 sl 7 above again...I smell nervous nellies....good for trading. Again between 47 and 27...if you play it correctly could net you quite a few pips..I shall not bore you with my 5-7 pips gain that i am executing now

BW bw 07:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Feb 18 2004, cable reached 1.9140 and closed at 1.8840 !!

gold coast martin 07:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
WELLINGTON LIN..i know...just a comment to break forex monotony.......g/t

Sydney 07:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Germany Oct Retail Sales +1.6% m/m, -3.7% y/y

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 07:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
0.6997 SELL EURGBP.....if seen

may work may not

Wellington Lin 07:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
gold coast, US is doing the devaluation and so-called rebalancing on the expense of other nations. it's unfair but do they care???

I'd love to see fair values of currencies in the near future however the EUR and GBP appreciation occured mainly during london session... which is less likely to be speculation. possibaly banks purchasing

gold coast martin 07:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
With gbp so overvalued british carmakers like Jaguar and rolls royce who are owned by multinationals will speed the re- location of the car plants off shore..either central europe or asia...soon we will have immitation english jaguar and rolls royce to match the immitation gucci and yve st. laurent ..for the well to do set....such is the price of globalization....

Haifa ac 07:21 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:25 GMT // Good point. 40 week cycle is looming too.

NJ RT 07:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning folks .. how do you gentlemen see EUR/GBP today? Thank you.

KL KL 07:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out again at 1.9147 +17 SAR here short again...this is a good trading day...

Wellington Lin 07:16 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
ah I see London, you were talking about the past. thanks for your input!

KL KL 07:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I am out again gbpusd at 1.9140 +10 SAR and short here out again at 1.9130 +10 SAR here long sl 7 below still. As long as 1.9128 holds I will play this game all day!!

London. 07:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Wellington Lin no I am not expectiing 1.46 just making a point that at the time the talk was 2.15 prior to the drop , thats how bearish the market was on the USD .

Wellington Lin 07:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks London. I agree that the levels of EUR and GBP are excessive and USD is undervalued. however I have some doubts in the sudden change of market sentiment you are expecting.. what would be the trigger? if pure tech 1.46 is unlikely... but it seems USD bear is dominant no matter how the US data proves the robustness of US economy

Syd 06:58 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Gold is down

London 06:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Wellington Lin when it crashed out of the Emu it fell like a stone to 1.46 weeks to follow. it may have got a little higher before hand

London 06:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Wellington Lin when it crashed out of the Emu it fell like a stone to 1.46 weeks to follow. it may have got a little higher before hand

KL KL 06:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Well I am out gbpusd at 1.9144 +17..., I am long again at 1.9130... sl 7 below...I think gorilla smell some blood already...to the moon...with gold's help...one more test for 1.92 now? Make no mistake I am selling the rally day...in anticipation of another blow off day!! Risk is still on the Long side.

Wellington Lin 06:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London, 1.46 or 1.96???

singapore kingpin 06:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Get ready to sell massive amounts of her majesty all the way upto 1.915 to 1.9200 for at least 1.888 this week.
still short euro at 1.3294

London 06:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Sterling hit 1.46. in the weeks to follow

London. 06:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD above 1.9137, level not touched since September 1992, when sterling smashed out of Exchange Rate Mechanism that had been set up as transition to EUR launch;

Syd :-( 06:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian Economic Growth Halves, RBA Can Wait
With the surging Australian dollar and capacity constraints crimping exports, Australian economic growth more than halved in the third quarter to its most lethargic pace in nearly four years. The sluggishness of the economy backs the Reserve Bank's statement last month that there is "no pressing need" for tighter monetary policy.
Gross domestic product rose 0.3% in the three months through September from the previous quarter, down from 0.8% growth in the second quarter and the slowest pace since the end of 2000 when the economy contracted by 0.7%.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW while everyone is speculating if this is the bottom for the $ the eur/usd pair is clawing it’s way higher disregarding at this point the basics of the indicators and all mathematical systems. The truth of it all is in the price action, which tells me that this correction is not taking place so until proven otherwise the buy on dips is still on the list for this pair.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3340-50 and 3400-10. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3240-50, 3180-90, 3130-40, 3080-90 and 3030-3040.
Retracement numbers are 3215-25, 3140-50, 3085-95, 3030-40 and 2960-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3165-75, 3070-80, 2990-3000, 2910-2920, and 2810-20 for now key retracement number is 3080-90.
Support T/L is around 3260-3270 and 3210-20.
Support is around the 3280-90, 3245-55, 3210-20, 3180-90, 3130-50 and 3050-70 for now key support is around the 3130-50 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 06:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
BTW, one last note. There does appear to be someone or something bidding up usd/jpy around the 102.67/8 area. That's why a new session LOW has not printed on usd/jpy while eur/usd has recently made a new session high (eur/jpy helping tho as stated before).

London 06:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Not been here since September 92

London. 06:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP up here is quite a danger to go long JIMHO

BW bw 06:43 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Gep - I love the precision - do you have an eta as well - I think 09:35 gmt

KL KL 06:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
well I am long cable here 1.9129 sl 7 below...just for a quick run up to take out all time at 1.9140. If I am right good otherwise 7 pips loss is good investment to find out!!

Dallas GEP 06:39 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Actually 1.9027 (ASK) would be reasonable target for GBP shorts

BW bw 06:34 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP, your target on cable short is 1.9030 ?

Dallas GEP 06:27 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW a short CABLE with 30 pip stop SHOULD work

Dallas GEP 06:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
No I don't sleep!!! LOL...OK guys the main reason EUR/usd is above 1.33 presently is because of eur/jpy longs because you would NORMALLY expect usd/jpy to be at a lower rate than this with the eur/usd level. So all yen pairs are looking a little bid right now. 137.00 is VERY strong resistance on eur/jpy. When Eur/JPY stops LONGING then eur/usd will probably short and then of course usd/jpy will go longer. GBP as has been the case is MORE bullish than EURO presently as also indicated by EUR/GBP shorts that have been in play. GBP/USD and AUSSIE will generally move together and currently gbp/usd longs are somewhat supporting AUSSIE for now BUT Aussie can act on it's own with an eye towards AUD/JPY it's most influential pair.

SBN surefire 06:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
We are going to long eur/usd at 1.3250 with 100 millions size, stop-loss 1.3190, target 1.3330

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NZD level looks all wrong to me up here, I appreciate there has been yield chasing but the move in AUD would suggest a period of position adjustment in this currency. A month ago all govt officials and central bankers there talking about currency too high, and now we have seen what devastating effects this has had in Australia you would think they would have been more vocal. Levels above 0.7200 should be good shorting for a move back to 0.6900-0.7000 to correspond with moves back to 0.7400-0.7700 for AUD. There were very good sellers in AUD yesterday, the type that get involved in long term moves.
I also find EUR/YEN strange, this USD issue is all about Asia not Europe, dont get this one at all ... it should be at least 130.00

GL all n GT
GL

Calcutta Vikram 06:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP.....man, don't you sleep?
Probably you are right on the range. Good Trades.

There are only 16% chances of the Cable climbing past 1.9145 today. That said, it does not automatically translate into a license to sell.

Dallas GEP 06:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Vikram, I beleive the range to be narrower than that at least for today. I would say 102.57 - 103.26

LA Fxnew 06:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
hi ..
any attempt to short cable here? or its too dangerous??

Calcutta Vikram 05:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dollar-Yen....see a range of 102.15-103.40 prevailing over today-tomorrow. This may seem a wide range, but what is important is that the market may not be really willing to make any larger moves, at least today. Or in other words, the market may be evaluating situations afresh.

Sydney 05:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian Shares end at low as investor nerves appear
The Australian share market struggled under a broad wave of selling Wednesday, with losses evident from late morning when data showed third quarter economic growth slowing.

Sydney 05:55 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian Shares end at low as investor nerves appear

Brisbane L 05:51 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Limits imposed on Ukrainian banks
The tense political situation following the disputed presidential election, now nine days old, has provoked people into withdrawing their savings.
The central bank has spent millions on intervention to keep the hryvna stable
BBC

Syd 05:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia's index of commodity prices fell 0.4% in November when measured in currency-neutral special drawing rights, the central bank said Wednesday in a preliminary estimate. This compares with a revised 0.2% gain in October. The largest contributors to the fall in November were decreases in the prices of aluminum, cotton and nickel, the RBA said. In Australian dollar terms, the index fell 2.9% in November, following a revised 3.2% decline in October

Sydney 05:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
On the Aud if RBA hiked rates the economy would drop like a stone , so they know its out of the question

Syd 05:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Currencies

China gives forex speculators a piece of its mind
December 1, 2004

By William Pesek

The world of currency markets is one of winks, nods and secret handshakes. Key policy makers rarely, if ever, say exactly what's on their minds. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has done just that and traders should pay close attention.

Wen said, as he often does, that China would not relax the currency's fixed exchange rate to the dollar under pressure from other countries.

Yet he went a step further this week, issuing a warning of sorts to currency speculators."To be frank, it's not possible to launch changes to the yuan when speculation is so rife," he said. "Rampant speculative activities on the yuan," he added, would make the introduction of any measures "impossible".

In other words, traders who test China's resolve may only delay a change in its currency peg. It means that the more investment banks churn out reports predicting yuan revaluations - and the more speculators react to them - the longer the process may play out.

China understands how much the world wants it to let the yuan rise. Its officials also know it would be a powerful goodwill gesture that would reap political benefits in capitals all over the globe.Yet China's economy isn't ready for a currency shift, and debt has much to do with it. The four biggest commercial banks in Asia's second-largest economy are shackled with untold numbers of bad loans, putting its financial system in a highly fragile state.Standard & Poor's thinks it would cost $656 billion (R3.801 billion) to resolve bad loans at China's banks, though some analysts say the figure is probably much higher.In January, China began using tens of billions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves to bail out lenders, and it's been pressuring bank executives to dispose of bad loans. More recently, it set new rules designed to make it easier for overseas investors to buy the more than $450 billion of bad loans held by China's four biggest commercial banks and their asset management companies.
Yet it's a work in progress. The last thing China wants is currency instability for the first time since 1995, when it pegged the yuan.

China, Wen said, needed "a stable macroeconomic environment, a normal market mechanism and a healthy financial system" before it altered the peg. "China needs to consider impact of the yuan on China and on the region."
That's little comfort to Asian governments struggling to adjust to the dollar's 5.2 percent drop against the euro and 4.1 percent slide against the yen this year. As the dollar falls, China grows even more competitive in Asia.
The trend threatens the export industries of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean.
The good news is that this week's Asean meeting in Vientiane may be a harbinger of Asian governments looking past China's dollar peg and letting currencies rise.

"We have to live with the fact that there will be a weaker US dollar next year," said Indonesian trade minister Mari Pangestu. "I don't think Indonesia should depreciate its currency to maintain its export competitiveness."

Since Indonesia is by far southeast Asia's biggest economy, such thinking shouldn't be dismissed. Japan also has shocked currency traders in recent weeks by doing nothing as the yen surged against the dollar.
South Korea, which, like Japan, tends to manage its currency closely, also has been more tolerant of the rising won.
It's an important step for this region - a sign of confidence that may attract more foreign capital and lower bond yields.
It will encourage economies and companies to reform instead of relying on cheap exchange rates as a crutch. And letting the dollar fall may be necessary to get record US budget and current account deficits under control.Japan's is by far Asia's biggest economy; only when Tokyo lets markets set the yen's value will China and others follow suit.

KL KL 05:32 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Rats fell for that again in gbpusd and eurusd out -6 at 20....-16 pips loss ...ok focus...focus

Bisbane PhD 05:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
long EUR/USD 1.3311. Initial stop 1.3285.

KL KL 05:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9119 and eurusd 1.3314 sl 10...for a quick retrace play....I hope!!

tk jf 05:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
syd - no problems ill add that to the other million times ive been wrong

Syd 05:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
tk jf well I have found aud tends to trade on fundamentals rather than technicals

BW bw 05:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
There is talk of very good buying interest from the type of names that the market respect between 1.3230/60 and profit taking and option related sellers are lined up between 1.3330 and a barrier at 1.3350.
Large stops are starting to build above 1.3350. Sentiment towards the USD remains generally bearish, but the large moves in some of the cross rates in the past 24 hours suggest that the market is getting a bit selective and cautious. A break above 1.3350 in the EUR/USD should see buying accelerate, but a failure to break later today could see the pairing slip back to the 1.3160/80 window. IFR

Dallas GEP 05:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy @ 102.73

tk jf 05:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
syd - yes that is an economic fact but not so much a trading decision level

Syd 04:56 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
tk jf Australias Deficit is larger than that of the US , economist know we need a low currency same situation as the US crippling the exports . Aus though has a greater proportion than the US.

tk jf 04:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
yes martin - last week very few people focussed on aud downside now its much more publicised so its harder to fall in one direction - its about time allocation too so until eur n chf resolve their movement aud will not be as rewarding i dont think anyway - see how it goes - gt

gold coast martin 04:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 04:23 GMT December 1, 2004
I agree that aud needs an extra push for a major correctioni n the form of euro....sideways may be in the scenario but it will be just postponing the inevitable...if too much sideways is seen just adjust your timeframes on your targets......g/t

Brisbane L 04:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I must agree with Martins points below, prior to that deficit I was quite bullish , but as soon as there is a problem anything with a deficit attached to it gets hit very badly (remember 9/11)

gold coast martin 04:28 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
chicago goofy 04:03 GMT December 1, 2004
i have a 15 page dossier on why the downtrend in both currencies..to keep it brief:ndz has been receiving flows and been a good cross trade for a long time now..these excessive flows and crosstrades are about to be repatriated and crosstrades cashed in by the funds before the end of year....as the shacles of a growing deficit been put on aud,same fate await kiwi....technicals will play no major part in these 2 currencies in the next 1-3 months....unles you are pip trading on using 15-30-60 minute charts...there are other contributing factors like falling commodity price index{yet to see real impact} ,creeping inflation,growth decline and rate cuts....just remember one thing...If you feel uncomfortable with any trade.."when in doubt,stay out.."...there are no sure things in forex....just make sure you preserve your capital and live to play another day......g/t

tk jf 04:24 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
as much as i personally wud like to see it get to zero lol

tk jf 04:23 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
just on the aud - its like tell us something we dont know now - sell rumor buy fact - the aud has had a good run agst the movement of the other currencies but until a general usd correction sets in - its hard for the aud to go it alone- so we may just have to accept sideways trading - gt

Brisbane L 04:13 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone remember this.
href="Banana republic's back with $400b debtThe days of the banana republic have returned, with Australia's trade deficit hitting record levels and foreign debt breaking the $400billion mark.

Brisbane L 04:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Economic growth grinds to four-year low

Australia has recorded its slowest quarter of economic growth in almost four years.
Weak exports and a softening housing sector have been applying the brakes.Economic growth in the September quarter has been even weaker than generally expected, with GDP expanding by just 0.3 per cent. That is the slowest growth rate since the economy contracted in the December quarter of 2000.
Annual growth has dropped from an upwardly revised 4.5 per cent in the year to June to just 3 per cent.
Household and government spending have been the keys to growth while business investment has been mildly positive.
Australia's trade performance, inventories and the housing sector have detracted from growth.
ABC

chicago goofy 04:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin, I appreciate all your input. What triggers on which your prediction based are you expecting? If it is fundemantally driven, I dont see the help which could gain from the major pairs against the dollar. If it is technically, kiwi is a pair currently locked in a 100 pip range each day.

I like something more than 50% sure like what you told it was time to sell for newzland holding the interest rates. Have you noticed some coming events sharing this greater probability on kiwi or AUD...

THanks

Brisbane L 03:59 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin not sure about the lower levels , however aftr the terrible deficit numbers I would imagine investers are now looking for better levels to sell so the others are quite obtainable , seems were in for Dollar strength into the first part of December so the drop could be nasty

gold coast martin 03:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 03:41 GMT December 1, 2004
fwiw...I have divided december into three phases:
december 1-9, aud target 74.90-75.85
december 10-17, aud target 75.50-73.85
december 18-22, aud target 73.50-71.85
post 23 december volatility to the down side will increase.....expecting sub-70 with ultimate long target of 62.....on 62 target have not determinedtimeframe yet....hopes this helps....g/t

Brisbane L 03:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin
you aud target for this month , what do you see

wellington 03:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Real money Funds unwinding long Aud positions ifr

gold coast martin 03:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Goofy 03:22 GMT December 1, 2004
It wise in december for smaller traders to trade only only pair due to market swings......capital preservation is of primary importance in december....i am adding nzd shorts at anything over 7150 ..have a short term target of 69 by friday or monday the latest..my medium term target is 66-6550 in 8-10 days....long term it is still 59-62 by end of year as this has been my target from 8 months back...my long term target may be a bit ambitious..i will play it by ear....if need to extend timeframe on long term target i will as direction is correct...imho....on short term target it is advised to place 40-60 pip stops below entry to account for any surprises....for medium term i have 55-85 pip stops..for long term i have 85-145..that is my position anyway.....good luck with possies....with both aud and nzd patience is paramount as is constant surveillance of both pairs....NZD i feel has got a higher degree of acceleration than the aussie....a late starter but one to be watch,,,,,,,g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 03:38 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Calcutta Vikram 03:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Re: LDN. 15:49 GMT November 30, 2004
Calcutta Vikram
could you give your view on the aud since the cronic data deficit how will it be affected

....Sorry I missed your post as I had logged out for the day. Also, apologies as I do not follow the Aussie (although I should).

River Falls_USA_ PB 17:10 GMT November 30, 2004....If the world is indeed ready to move away from the Dollar Standard (as it did from the Gold Standard), then yes, we are looking at a new era of Dollar weakness. Perhaps such a momentous change might have been heralded by some bugles or fanfare (or maybe a dirge). Or is it that the sirens have been wailing for years and I had cotton wool stuffed in my years. And now that push is coming to shove I am rubbing my eyes in disbelief like Rip Van Winkle?

KL KL 03:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
out Long gbpusd at 14 from 1.9108 +6 -10 audusd long taken and ,-7 in usdcad long at 1.1882 from 1.1875...-11 not happy. Back to drawing board!!

Chicago Goofy 03:22 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Martin, kiwi guru..
whats ur stop and target and timeframe for this pair?
BTW I only have one contract money(yes it is only for one contract kiwi and aud) and can not bear a single loss trade. Can you advice me something on sure win like wat u called for in OCT 28. It was pretty impressive.

I can wait if it is not mature. Actually thats what i did the whole month. Very important to me. My task is to get all back from this contract amount. no more even a little room for the mistake.

Hindsight: If I treated each lot like what i did now, I would not have been in this situation. Take the lesson everybody: dont feel compelled to trade, trade one win one.

Many Thanks,

Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
hk 03:06 GMT - The position of key quantized levels in 10-day and 44-day cycle will tell you everything. It is worth to take a look in my page. The first 2 weeks are free of charge and there is no oligation.

SAIHAT 03:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
bot aud .7755

may work may not

Hong Kong Qindex 03:18 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

gold coast martin 03:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
shorted KIWI AT 7175.....g/t

Philadelphia Caba 03:07 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:03 GMT December 1, 2004

Good luck with that, I'm long too.

hk 03:06 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex are you still looking for the low on aud you mentioned tks

Dallas GEP 03:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Certainly is CABA...

Philadelphia Caba 03:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, is your eur/gbp still alive?

Los Angeles ss 03:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, GEP/

Hong Kong Qindex 03:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 03:01 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
SS, My guess is range bound 1.3230 - 1.3320/25

Philadelphia Caba 03:00 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorted aud at current level with s/l at 0.7830

Los Angeles ss 02:53 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- where do you see eurousd short term?

Syd 02:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
TERROR STRIKE "ONLY A MATTER OF TIME"
Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty says it's only a matter of time before there's a terrorist strike on Australia. Link

Dallas GEP 02:49 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE @ .7766

Dallas GEP 02:48 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE @ .7766

LDN LDN 02:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
FXC view on the AUD ...Aussie collapsed further on Tuesday. Aussie has already peaked and will fall into the week of December 13. fxc

Hong Kong Qindex 02:44 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Sydney 02:29 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Canadian Dollar Hurting Canadian Economy
The Canadian dollar was weaker against most major currencies today, after a measure of the nation's economy showed slower than expected growth. The loonie retreated after this morning's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report proved to be the latest in a string of recent economic disappointments.

Laponia Noel 02:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   

Enjoy the last month
Lot's of pips.....

gold coast martin 02:17 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning......with the eurohitting my 13334 projected target yesterday it signals the end for this week of euro achhieving daily highs....as posted before euro will first condolidate around the 13250-55 range before the funds start to take profit before years end......my last correlation post between the euro and aussie still apply....woth noting ,due to market liquidity we may see euro flirting with the 133 handle for brief periods.....if so anything over 133 is a good short as is aud at 7770 levels,....g/t

London. 02:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Sharp compression in AUD/USD rate spreads over past few weeks reduces attractiveness of Uridashi issuance, Says "excessive rally" in Australian bond market means spreads with U.S. may widen in the near-term, but spread will narrow in medium-term, "in which case we think it likely that Uridashi issuance will virtually disappear during the course of 2005," stripping AUD of positive driver
Deutsche Bank report.

KL KL 02:12 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
in Long gbpusd 1.9108...want to short but the power going down is not seen. So I hope I am in for the ride to all time high

short usdcad 1.1875

Long audusd .7772 - All sl 10 both ways

wellington 02:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
OECD gives backing to Fed's measured rate hike campaign, saying step-by-step tightening needed to dampen inflation risks that may emerge

LDN LDN 02:03 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD (0.7767)
Aussie found support just below the 0.7700 level and bounced higher from there to 0.7790. Resistance stands at 0.7800 and 0.7820 which should be the maximum seen to the upside on a wave 4 corrective rally. Look then for more weakness toward 0.7660 and 0.7300 (!) in the next few days. Aggressive traders can sell 0.7775, SL 0.7835, target 0.7590. We stand aside.
Alipes Investment

Syd 01:50 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Treasurer Peter Costello said the black mark on the economy was clearly the export sector warned that the economy would be at risk if the U.S. dollar continues to decline and the Australian dollar remains strong. censored expects the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold at 5.25% for the foreseeable future.

Sydney 01:46 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Treasurer Peter Costello won't take bait on whether Xstrata will face scrutiny on WMC Resources bid given Olympic Dam uranium assets. Says not aware Xstrata has filed FIRB application, may be a negative if the government oppose the purchase on National Interest issues. as with Woodside previously.

Syd :-( 01:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
After Aussie bond rally, rate support to AUD "quickly evaporating" as spread to U.S. Treasurys narrows, notes David Mozina, ABN Amro.

dc fxq 01:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
I fail to understand how people can speak blithely of a US recession that doesn't impact every other of its trading partners. It has never happened before in recorded history (and with a backgorund of persistent US C/A deficits BTW).

It ain't gonna this time either!

London 01:35 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE thanks , guided by you most of the time thanks

Dallas GEP 01:34 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Well @ 1.9126 I picked up a short GBP/USD off an order but I just closed it @ 1.9118 because this 1.9114 might hold for now

NYC YIPPEE 01:33 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Hey.. Not at the moment. Sold some GBPUSD right here, looking for 1.9030. AUD may take a look if it rallies.

London 01:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
NY yippee if your around any aud views

Syd :-( 01:26 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Soft 3Q,Early 4Q Leaves RBA On Hold-censored

Ldn 01:20 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD rally on 3Q GDP data stalls around 0.7775 resistance; rally partly due to upward revisions to 2Q outcome, also likely short-covering after talk yesterday of possible contraction in economy. Adds hasn't changed idea economy has come off boil, current account deficit worsening, so pair likely to continue to underperform
NAB

Tallinn viies 01:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Mla Evan 00:54 GMT - Igrok is taking profits now :)

wellington am 01:11 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Rio 00:52 GMT December 1, 2004
Because it was oversold; the deficit although large as a % of GDP is managable; they have good growth, and huge Chinese demand. It's a nice safe haven, well managed enconomy ...

Mtl JP 01:10 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes Virginia, An Emerging Markets' Financial Crisis Is Possible In America Too (Marshall Auerback)

Picture of US 10yr paper vs gold: Chart

Pecs Andras 00:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Rio 00:52 GMT December 1, 2004
Any reason is a good reason to sell the dollar these days....
pathetic

Syd 00:57 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok hi can you give your view on the aud also thanks

Mla Evan 00:54 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 11:35 GMT November 30, 2004
Do you still hold the same view now? Your further comments appreciated. TIA

Rio 00:52 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
so why AUD is going up????

Syd :-( 00:47 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian economic growth slows sharply in 3Q to 0.3% on-quarter vs 0.5% tipped, and 3% on-year, as expected; weak export sector slugs growth badly

Syd 00:45 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore steps into Taiwan/China debate again, which a bit odd as it's likely still smarting from Beijing rebuke a few months back: Senior Minister Goh says "the risk of a miscalculation leading to military conflict is high Singapore has repeatedly voiced concerns of cross-strait war, with new PM Lee visiting Taiwan before he took job, getting a smack on wrist from China in process. Comes after S&P shifted Taiwan outlook to negative before legislative polls later in month
AP

Atl TJ 00:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CAR, There are only 2 realistic ways to get the CA Deficit under control, recession and/or dollar devaluation. China is the problem. Ole W has enough on is plate currently so I doubt he wants to get into currency war with China. The two currencies that are taking in the backside are Jap and Euro. They are going to be the ones that will have to pressure China to float. And I am sure that W has no interest in doing France and Germany's bidding for obvious reasons but will make an effort to limit effects on Jap. Also you can bet your last nickel that there a re a lot of manufacturing businesses in the US that want to Euro at 1.8000.

So the bottom line is the sky is not falling. This is just economic cycles with a new twist - reformulation of world economies.

prague jv 00:41 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
still do see more sideways movments to go ,before some rely ocure for now . Usd is supported by weakeing commod ccy , and can last that way for some time .

You welcome Lahore .

Sydney 00:40 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Stephen Koukoulas, economist at TD Securities, said the current account data show a chronic problem on the external accounts, with the current account deficit seemingly entrenched around 6% of GDP at a time of booming commodity prices, booming GDP growth in Australia's major trading partners, and low interest rates.
"In these circumstances, it would be reasonable to expect the current account deficit to be near historical lows, not at historical highs. "It suggests that the Australian dollar is overvalued - perhaps by a large amount and that one of the reasons for this overvaluation is the very high interest rate structure the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has in place as it worked to tackle the credit, house price and household debt bubbles," Koukoulas said. In what is an increasingly widely held though still minority view, Koukoulas said the current account problem suggests the prospects for an interest rate cut are building. "Importantly, the rate cut scenario is based on the well-known mix of falling house prices, falls in building approvals, low inflation, soft retail sales data and, more recently, an overvaluation of the Australian dollar," he said. Koukoulas said the RBA may start an easing cycle from its current 5.25% cash rate around or before the middle of 2005. In early November, the central bank said it's "likely the economy will require higher interest rates at some stage of the current expansion," but the recent run of soft data has led to a shift in focus to an accompanying clause that "there is no pressing need for higher interest rates at this stage."
reuters

new jersey z 00:34 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
i saw that, but it spiked on the news. were they expecting a horrorshow GDP #?

Syd 00:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian 3Q GDP +0.3% On Qtr Vs +0.5% Consensus

new jersey z 00:31 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
any news on AUD?

Makassar Alimin 00:30 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
agree with Athens, i think dollar is ready to slide more

Livingston nh 00:25 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
CAR - the EUR is not at this level because of any intrinsic trade advantage of the EU - it has risen on a flood of dollars from Asia - if China joins the world's floating currency regime the flood of dollars will be redirected / a US recession will shrink the trade deficit by restricting import demand (the effect of a recession on the budget should not effect the USD) // Europe actually has a bigger aging population problem and the EU expansion is going to be a bit more difficult I suspect

The big wild card is inflation

Juneau CAR 00:15 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Not following your logic Livingston: Bush wil make tax cuts permanent, Iraq and Afghanistan add 150 billion to deficit a year and 77 million baby boomers come on line in 3 years. So US deficit just gets worse and worse. Importing 60% fo oil wiht cheaper and cheaper dollars worsens trade deficit.

If US has a recession the deficits get that much worse. If interest rates rise deficit gets that much worse (interest payments on deficit rises). Us has a delima they cannot get out of.

The only way the US can get the deficits down is if they have huge economic growth and no one sees that happeneing. Us is at a point of no return it looks like to me. Regardless of what happens in Europe.

Also, if china takes the peg away from the dollar the dollar falls not rises.


Livingston nh 00:04 GMT December 1, 2004
London 23:34 GMT November 30, 2004
"Does anyone now call for the Euro going back to parity in our lifetime ? just curious."
I can't guarantee our lifetime but probably within the next four years -- China will take the peg away before the Olympics, US will have recession with interest rates probably 2% above ECB and the Budget deficits in EU will continue to rise
But live long and prosper

London 00:09 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq exactly

London 00:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh thanks for the reply , it seems all the analysts have a stamp on their forehead now "Liquidate USD"

dc fxq 00:08 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
"US will have recession "


and in that case what about the EU, Jpn, Canada, etc, etc?

Livingston nh 00:04 GMT December 1, 2004 Reply   
London 23:34 GMT November 30, 2004
"Does anyone now call for the Euro going back to parity in our lifetime ? just curious."
I can't guarantee our lifetime but probably within the next four years -- China will take the peg away before the Olympics, US will have recession with interest rates probably 2% above ECB and the Budget deficits in EU will continue to rise
But live long and prosper

 


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