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Forex Forum Archive for 01/06/2005

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Atlanta-South 23:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The proof is in the calls these helpful TRADERS make on this forum. I'm not saying you guys are always right, but I've followed 3 of you & your trades quite sometime & find that you are right enough to be in the money more than not. As I've said before as a RULE I follow in REALTIME very few calls from anyone. When I do I only follow those that have proven their ability with the calls they have made. By following VERY few calls from others I'm only mad at MYSELF if the trade goes wrong. Its everyone chose to follow other calls, but its your MONEY & you have only YOURSELF to blame if you lose. It is beyond belief anyone on this forum would ask another to PROVE their ability. THE PROOF IS IN THE CALLS. FOLLOW THE CALLS & SEE FOR YOURSELF. IF you would trade for yourself, you would have little time to ANALYSIS others trades. JUST MY THOUGHTS. AND THANKS TO YOU GUYS WILLING TO HELP THE OTHERS.

NoVa Lurker 23:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
damned short walk quit! LoL

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
...and I think we are all getting tired of the "prove it!" bunch. If you don't believe it, fine, don't play Dick Tracy on the FF.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tell you what marty, it's a complement when people try to:
A.> sign up with your fund and get angry when they can't.
B.> want your system so bad that they get intimidating (i.e. picky-une) when they can't. It's like the expression: "Love me or I'll kill you!" Those who pester you, I notice, just pester and give me the same fleas. Nuff said..going for a walk in the park w/ my pitbull while the world sleeps.

Just remember, dollar bullz, the odds of good econ news are IN YOUR FAVOR. Happy hunting.

gold coast martin 23:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Anyway enough from me ...g/t

gold coast martin 23:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Syd 23:02 GMT January 6, 2005


I dont mind receiving it....its all part of forex...only as good as your last trade....hero one day..villain the next...i just enjoy the forum...my way of giving back something to the industry that i make a living out of......

dc fxq 23:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Caba, Briefing - who I like for forexcasts, is calling 160k with a 175k consensus.

gold coast martin 23:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   


cerete colombia 22:49 GMT January 6, 2005
......, o maybe this fund is like ed seikota's fund which is not acepting anymore clients due to the size of its equity?
i don't quite understand...

bingo!!!..you answered you own question....


Syd 23:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin feel sorry for you mate, cant win what ever - you will always get the anonomous having a go, as long as you know what your doing and making the greenbacks thats all that counts , your the one laughing all the way to the bank. cheers

gold coast martin 22:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 22:52 GMT January 6, 2005
i thought you were going to send one....sorry....and i accidently Deleted jay confirmation email that had your email address on it....sorry....i can get jay to send it again..or if you have mine you can end me one....g/t

Syd 22:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD currently battling against USD strength, but environment likely to be short-lived. Craig Ferguson, senior strategist at ANZ, expects rally to mature soon, but this still leaves open potential for AUD/USD to visit lows around 0.7550-0.7600 near-term. Current moves represent an opportunity to reestablish USD shorts for a multi-week move lower. DJ

Philadelphia Caba 22:58 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
dc fxq 22:56 GMT January 6, 2005

what's actually forecast on the Payroll..?

dc fxq 22:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:52 GMT

you are weloome, I saw a number of references to higher whisper numbers yesterday and some of these have been faded today on the basis you mentioned, may be they have swung to sand bagging. rotflmao

LondonJoe 22:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Suprising enough the DB/GS economic derivatives auction today on tomorrows NFP has come in at 176.272 (another auction tom) .. this is right on the economists consensus.. I would have thougt given todays feel the market would have lowered this and taken insurance on a lower no. tom

Higher Number better... more jobs created, stronger economy --> higher interest rates and pari pasu a stronger USD... but mkts dont follow straight lines and logic..

gold coast martin 22:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
p 22:47 GMT January 6, 2005

I was correct for the first 7 months of 2004 on my long term view.....wrong for the last 5 months but in between those five months there were corrections which were traded upon...,,...overall the year finished on a very high note.....and do me favor ..post your real handle so we can have a proper discussion...i am in no mood for anonnymous conversations.......happy new year ...whoever you sre.....

london, herts jr 22:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
better number old bean

NJ RT 22:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, did u have a chance to send me an E-mail ... I didn't receive anything yet. Thank you.

Philadelphia Caba 22:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
dc fxq 22:47 GMT January 6, 2005

thanks, didn't know that.

LA fxnew 22:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
basic question:

is higher nfp number better or lower?
thanks

Global-View 22:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
p 22:47 GMT January 6, 2005 - You know better, please use a proper location

cerete colombia 22:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy : Good comment, i thought that if the system belonged to a fund it should be ok to tell its rate (%) of success since this will benefit the fund in order to get more clients, o maybe this fund is like ed seikota's fund which is not acepting anymore clients due to the size of its equity?
i don't quite understand...

NoVa Lurker 22:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I think martin weas referring to proprietary rather than patented. This is most commonly used for "black box" systems/programs among CPO/CTA types.

p 22:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 22:27 , only this week Martin, long time you are bear on euro & aud, and totally wrong, of coarse moves need corrections and turn sideways for a while.

dc fxq 22:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:36

not to be contentious but the cutoff date for tomorrows report was Dec 12. Thismorning's data will not be a part of the upcoming report. Guess some economists are taking that into account.

cerete colombia 22:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy : Good comment, i thought that if the system belonged to a fund it should be ok to tell its rate (%) of success since this will benefit the fund in order to get more clients, o maybe this fund is like ed seikota's fund which is not acepting anymore clients due to the size of its equity?
i don't quite understand...

Sydney 22:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Australian retails sales for November expected to show rise of 0.6% on month after sliding 0.7% in October. Lower oil prices expected to give sector a kick along in month. Forward-looking indicators of retail sales showed December was strong with a late rush on shops just days ahead of Christmas. Picture of strength starting to form again. Data due at 0030 GMT

gold coast martin 22:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 22:38 GMT January 6, 2005
Sorry...not proper word usage...by patented i meant it is designed for the exclusive use of the fund(As stipulated in the charter of the fund) and bound to confidentiality provisions....i did not mean as in terms of patented,,, in a public registration use....thanks for the sideline correction.....g/t

Stockholm AGuy 22:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 22:27 GMT : "As the system is patented and belongs to the fund i cannot disclose any figures for obvious reasons"

A note from the sidelines: if something is patented, its full description is on public record, and secrecy about it is neither desirable nor even possible. If somebody were to tell you that something isn't patented YET, so they have to be secretive to protect themselves, then that would make sense. If they tell you that something IS patented, so they have to be secretive, then something's not right.

Philadelphia Caba 22:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
IFR : ...Weekly jobless claims jumped 43K and caused som economists to lower their forecast on the Payroll number later today from 175K to 125K.. ...

gold coast martin 22:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
cerete colombia 22:23 GMT January 6, 2005

As the system is patented and belongs to the fund i cannot disclose any figures for obvious reasons....all i can say is judge it by the degree of success this week by looking at my posts from the start of the week.....it has been good to me for 15 years.....

cerete colombia 22:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin , hi, what is your rate (%) of success using your system?
thanks for your kind answer.

gold coast martin 22:16 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   


LondonJoe 22:13 GMT January 6, 2005
A lot of aussie fundies at the moment are under extrem pressure that is causing "soup kitchen syndrome"....pressure is making them make strange decisions......

Tallinn viies 22:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
ok, going to sleep now.
moved takeprofit to half buy at 1,3124.
and next order at 1,3064 to turn long...
good night
stop loss and reverse at 1,3319

LondonJoe 22:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
How could Mac Queery stoop so low !!!...

Paul Keating On Fund Managers:

"...these donkeys..."

"It must get right up their nose, quaffing down the red wine at these fashionable eateries in Bent Street and Collins Street, with the Prime Minister calling them donkeys - but donkeys they are."



gold coast martin 22:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
cerete colombia 21:50 GMT January 6, 2005

IN SHORT,,,,,i use market flows that once are fed into my system i am able to correlate where the flows are,where they are going and how long they are stayingt here before movin on....that establishes correlational analysis between major pairs on a 1,2,3, 5 hourly basis.....after correlation is determined resistance levels so that i can use them for entry levels as the flows have already determinrd direction...my system which i developed is a complex amalgamation,,,correlates using a central pivot i call a macrowave and is divided into microwaves( DONT LAUGH)....macrowave gives me a macro view while microwaves correlate the short to medium views....have always used this system for position trading...but since beginning of this week have started to use it for day and 2-3 day trading,,,,,,so far results are ok this week...

LondonJoe 22:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Music to my ears Marty - the Sovereign Islands seems like a nice place to trade fx from... seems like a mexican stand off with aussie property though... nothing selling but sellers still holding off asking their unrealistic dizzy levels from 6mths ago.. but many have been predicting aussie property to come off .. ever since the 2000 olympics and it has done nothing but rally... can't see it crashing like Tokyo as the overleverage is not there... but a 10-15pct correction is healthy and we probaly trade sideways for a few years....

aud today will be dictated by retail trade and building approvals for Nov... to see if their is a pulse in the economy... I feel there still is a feint one

Syd 21:57 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe I forgot about his pigs, perhaps thats why she left too much competition :-)

Ltn th 21:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Last I heard Keating was living off, if not farming hogs in a speculative section of a sydney based bank. Named after an early colonial governor.

NoVa Lurker 21:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:45 GMT
I agree, pure "quatsch" but amusing to see what so called pro's will write sometimnes. LoL

gold coast martin 21:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
IN fact we are approaching the same scenario here in relation to a burst in property bubble,,,"..a recession we had to have.."..is ringing true ,,,,

LondonJoe 21:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Now let me think living with Paul Keating on a pig farm or Paris.....hmmm...

cerete colombia 21:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin , what indicators are you using to make your short term forecast on gpb-usd?
thanks for your kind answer.

gold coast martin 21:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 21:45 GMT January 6, 2005

lol....those were the good old days ...i try to sleep when market closes,,,lol!!!!!

Syd 21:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 21:45 GMT January 6, 2005
Anything but Keating even his wife left him and went back to Paris -

Syd 21:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin my view on aud exactly as a mind of its own when not being pushed around

Ltn th 21:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, Many thanks.
I am a bit more open on euro given that many european problem corporates have/had closer linkages to london than locally. The possibility of GBP becoming a sacrificial goat to euro occurs. My opinions on this are not worth much, so I would appreciate those of the euopans.

LondonJoe 21:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Marty - Bring back Keating and his Banana Republic comments.. I say. get some volatilty back into the pacific peso!!.. ( by the way do you ever sleep??)

Syd 21:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker Mostly talk , USD will be back as Arnie says

Maribor 21:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
After 500 pips correction Friday data could offer good oportunity to shake weak hands. Maybe double low in next few hours, followed by nice rise to 1.324, wipe out below 1.313 at data and close around 1.33? Just guessing...

gold coast martin 21:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
RE: SHORT VIEW ON CABLE......Apart from my long term cable view that i have expressed below,in the short term i see cable re-visiting 18719 after which 18667 should be seen.....timeframe:before nfp figures......g/t

gold coast martin 21:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD is my favorite currency from a sentimental point of view...it was the first pair i traded and while it does not respond to technicals as well as it does to fundamentals,i still trade it...also because i am australian....a sucker for punishment!!!!lol...

gold coast martin 21:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
BKK....YES ....10447 FOR NOW should hold.....

bkk david 21:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
usdjpy i should use stop 104.47 ??? for now

gold coast martin 21:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ltn th 21:03 GMT January 6, 2005

No probs..i do respect and value your comments...maybe my dislike of credit card debt caused the hole in the head statement,,,lol...

ANYWAY...IN RELATION to the cable you are correct in what you say,,,,,,,recent bad data has taken the polish off the cable ...flows at 195 are now diverted out of cable and slowly back to the greenback as the interest rate differential and turning economy are taking the polish off the cable....BOE hikes are on hold as Brown Indicated a while ago...in fact a slowing down in growth figures and a lagging economy are putting forward a very good case for rate cuts....which i believe we will see in march along with the ecb(they dont have a choice)...this will definitely
dry money flows to the cable....so as i see it the cable will be leading indicator propably in february in relation to the fate of the euro.....although i see more downside for the euro than the cable as the EU situation is a disaster waiting to happen....anyway i see cable short term around the 18620 level recovering to 18750 and further out towards mid/late february 184 leading into 182 in march......consolidating around to 18150-18250 for 1Q OF 2005

Also the housing boom that BROWN wanted to cool so much by hiking rates too much too soon and fort he reasons,is now turning into a severe downturn.....just like what we are about to experience here in australia.....godd times to buy cheap real estate in 6 months.....g/t

NoVa Lurker 21:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:22 GMT

Yam's posit would mean China would have to make a lot of strides in a relatively short period of time, starting immediately. EUR ould make more sense in the nearer term.

Maribor 21:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Price action today suggest new low tomorrow in EURUSD for cca 20-40 pips and end of correction. Most EURUSD bulls are dead, so it can go up again.

Syd 21:25 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dollar Gains Won't Last, Banc of America Says: Chart of the Day Perhaps Max is seeing this

Syd 21:22 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dollar May Become `Less Popular' as Reserve Currency, Yam Says
LINK

london, herts jr 21:16 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
was interested today to hear the BIS sold euros above 00 today

london, herts jr 21:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thks viies...appreciated

london, herts jr 21:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thks viies...appreciated

cerete colombia 21:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin,hi, why is aud your favorite currency?, thanks for your kind answer...

london, herts jr 21:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin..ur view on cable? if poss old chap

Tallinn viies 21:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
lon jr 21:07 GMT January 6 - till NFP numbers market on the eur offer side. we may see 1,3100 before numbers and if lucky 1,3055/60 traded tommrow. and even after extremly bad numbers I would like to buy euros big time at 1,2950/75 area.

from top side Im not worried before 1,3305/15 level taken out again.

gold coast martin 21:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 20:50 GMT January 6, 2005
LATE REPLY..as yen direction will be an important factor tomorrow i will post as i said yen direction before asian session..it looks at this stage that 10528 res, level will be breached on way to 10578-85 level....patience and watching the flows is required....g/l

lon jr 21:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Viies ..i know big numbers out tomorrow...what your general view on doll from here matey??

Ltn th 21:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, Sorry if I appeared nitpicking.
Value your comments, especially in recent times.
I am expecting cable to have an unusual influence on marlet over the next mo. and would value your longer term prognosis on it. Gordon Brown seems intent on frying other fish at the moment.

lax-lgb SNP 21:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
lax-lgb SNP 08:42 GMT January 6, 2005
£/¥ is starting to paint a failed bear flag

FWiW
£/chf looking 'short-worthy' soon & €/$ 'bouncey' ahead of low-1.31s

Tallinn viies 20:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thnks a lot guys.

gold coast martin 20:57 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:30 GMT January 6, 2005
Ldn 14:27 GMT January 6, 2005
..SORRY I FORGOT MY FAVORITE CURRENCY,,,,aud has resistance at 7648...should hold before a closing of 7598-7604....g/t

gold coast martin 14:26 GMT January 6, 2005
FWIW...aS POSTED EARLIER this morning (aussie time),today is mirror image of yesterday.....expect EURO resistance level of 13218 to hold before euro settles into a 13175-85 range at close.....yen :resistance level of 10441 to hold before a close of 10487......gbp: 18808 to hold before 18745-58 close......

FINAL THOUGHTS:...With the above resistance levels holdng for the duration of the ny session on the above pairs,the focus in fridays trading pre-nfp, will be on the yen direction ..as this has been the currency this week had and has the ability to determine major pair direction...will post yen flow resistance and target glow levels before start of asian session friday.....safe trading and mind your risk.....g/t

Tallinn viies 20:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker 20:54 GMT - at home I have the retail platforms where bid was hitten couple of times at 1,3155.
wondering maybe on EBS it was quickly traded under 55 :)
probably not I guess.

lon jr 20:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
viies low euro 55 on ebs i am told

perth ss 20:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hate to be the bearer of ill tidings but i reckon the jpy will kiss104.60 before any significant up
(24hrs)
glgt

NoVa Lurker 20:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 20:51 GMT

not positive but 13155 mentioned on the wires.

Halifax CB 20:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I've gotta run martin but I do find this interesting (have to go spend more $$$ I guess :). But as long as bankruptcy is relatively easy then there I think the question of credt debt isn't too much of a problem. Personally I think a relatively high rate of bankruptcy (as in NA) is actually a good sign; it indicates people are taking risks and learning to deal with losses. I realize that's probably heretical :)...Cheers

Tallinn viies 20:51 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
euro EBS low pls!
thnks in advance

dc fxq 20:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The reverse is equally possible London.

Syd 20:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Australian shoppers spent a record amount in December 2004. Payments company, Cashcard, estimates that $A21.1 billion was spent using EFTPOS. A large part of the spending occurred in the last few days before Christmas. Spending with credit cards could be even higher. Cashcard's retail activity index increased by 1.3 per cent in December. The strength of the Australian economy is also indicated by the Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank performance of services index, which rose by 5.9 points to 65.4 in December
CHRISTMAS shoppers splurged a record $21.1 billion in December - and that is before they even took out their credit cards.

bkk david 20:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
What do you think about usdjpy short term now ?

I still think it should go 105.80 at least or 106.30 and then down in monday

Ltn th 20:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, I think you would be surprised at the acumen of most consumers and small business operators these days. In the majority of cases they leave their own money in intrest earning accounts worth 5.5% to double figures and only transfer if and when it is needed to should there be a glitch in turnover. The source of bank or institution funds to cover these depends on their policies but generally is from leveraging the differential between earnings on deposited funds or offsets to minimal interest l/t loans. There is often a small cyclical reaction as credit accounts become due which I understand the financial profession refers to as seasonal factors.

London. 20:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
We may see a buy rumour sell fact on the USD later in the day

gold coast martin 20:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
....to putit plainly too much personal debt can have a flow on effect into the economy and while initially it creates glowing data for the currency to react to ,once debt flows into theeconomic fabric the same economic indicators turn the opposite and when released have a negarive effect on the currency....this what i meant by my post....g/t

gold coast martin 20:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ltn th 20:23 GMT January 6, 2005

Sorry th...as i said....while spending on the plastic provides evidence of consumer confidence and a boost to retail sales figures...in the long term it burdens more debt per capita to the australian consumers who have to find the money to repay it eventually..it is often borrowed just to pay the credit card balance or the debt consolidated into the form of a personal loan....e=in the long run it servicing such debt reduces customer spending and reduces customer confidence which in turn filters down to retail sales.....btw,,,borrowed money needs to be borrowed by institutions from somewhere as welll.....pulling the pud?....i think not.....

Halifax CB 20:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
re credit card debt - I don't know what it's like down under, but up here credit cards are the standard way for obtaining unsecured loans/operating capital under (say) 50K; banks just don't want the bother anymore. I don't know anybody who pays the nominal (18% and more rates), usually the loans get locked in under 5 - 6%, some for the duration, others for 6 months or so.

Syd 20:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin hi, actually there are a couple calling for Euro Strength straight after the number before down later in the month - momentum could start to wane on this first leg down giving a spurt to the top side on the Euro for an even great sell off down to say 118 . Just a thought,

San Diego bobl 20:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
had to just close aud/usd short for small gain...off to a meeting so bid all fair well and good trading.

gold coast martin and quito_ecuador_valdez...
you have mail!

best wishes

Ltn th 20:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
"gold coast martin 15:23 GMT January 6, 2005
Sydney 15:18 GMT January 6, 2005
MORE PERSONAL CREDIT CARD DEBT.....THE AUSSIE NEEDS IT LIKE A HOLE IN THE HEAD......very _ve for aussie in the medium/long term....."

Martin, are you a pulling da pud? With up to 60 days free credit on most credit cards they are a better indicator of activity and sentiment than real debt. Either that or they are collected in a very different way to what I understand.

gold coast martin 20:22 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Syd 20:15 GMT January 6, 2005
Brave call..hope he has taken the impending yen weakness that has been driving the market this week and if 10528 is breached with consolidation in the 10550-80 range,13085 will be breached regardless of how market reacts to nfp figures,,,,after the 13085, not even max mckegg will be brave enough to call for a 135+....just my thoughts.....still flows will decide where euro goes in the medium to long term.......g/l

Tallinn viies 20:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
good evening guys,
poped in to see where market has traded so far.
had order to buy at 1,3155. seems it is not done.
can you guys help me with EBS low?
should it be done?
canceled it for now, more than sure Im getting them back at better rate.

Syd 20:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Looks like Max McKegg is following the Elliot wave seeing wave 4 in , now for a rise


EURO/USD - One Last Hurrah
by Max McKegg
1/6/2005, Forexnews.com
January 6th - Having met my 1.3500 target the Euro's Uptrend is now in its final stages but with support now around 1.3150, there is opportunity for a climacic advance toward the 1.3950 level over coming weeks, before The Top is "in".

gold coast martin 20:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
belden mb 20:04 GMT January 6, 2005
As posted earlier today(14:26gmt}....close trading today at 7598-7604......lots of downside expected due to gold dropping ...resistance levels at 7646 which should hold even in the event of strong australian data release..look for a 7567 drop initially near the start of the asian session and further downside to 7506 should 7595 breached,before NFP DATA...further out, i will have an opinion on moday morning before commencement os aussie session...g/t

belden mb 20:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
goldcoast martin: what do you see for aud/usd ?

Halifax CB 20:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
sorry, finger trouble - it's here.

Halifax CB 20:01 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Latest plots are on my site (click on the link); I've filled the contours since the lightly drawn contours seemed to give too weak an impression of the variance in possibilities through time (although working simply within the blue lines as guides has worked well on day 2 of this test, though I only traded GBPUSD of this group.).
Though not included in the above, the rising trend on EURJPY noted this a.m. on the 5 minutes is still very much intact; it's bounced almost perfectly a number of times off the rising support (from the low around 1550 GMT yesterday) which tends to confirm. The trend though is very new, so I find it's better to wait till just after another bounce to get in. GL/GT

London. 19:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker They have achieved what they set out to do keep the Yen above 100 for now , which is more than the Bank of England could achieve . The market is cautious of the BOJ

NoVa Lurker 19:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Beg to differ, they have consistently been "reactive" not "proactive" unless you consider their "rate checking" motif "proactive".

London. 19:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker actually they have been the most successful of all bank on intervention , if that is possible and if they didnt intervene at 102 they are less likely here .

perth ss 19:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
don,t mean to ruin a good thing gents but the jpy is looking like an upsidedown bowler hat on the 15min.......maybe short@1.520 could be good for 104.62?.fwiw
I'maleady short for that target
gtgl

belden mb 19:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
if usd/cad fails another test 0f 1.2400 will look to short as the move from1.1968 to current high of 1.2399 has not had a retracement yet. Daily chart shows more room upside

NoVa Lurker 19:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Probably so, London, probaly so ... but trhink about the impact it would have. Not terribly efficient startegists or tactics when it come to their intervention practices in the past, that is certain.

London. 19:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker they are full of hot air

NoVa Lurker 19:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Fukui (BoJ) on the wires noting "they" were mon itoring FX rates "very, very closely".

Now, IF the MoF/BoJ were to intervene with USD already rising vs JPY, consider the impact.

gold coast martin 19:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 19:04 GMT January 6, 2005

yes....email received from Jay.....g/t

Vienna GD 19:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
HK RF ... and if gold goes below 390 i would it buy below 390 and below 380 and even (if still alive then) below 300. Why?

The higher the buck goes ... the more fun ... in the long run!

NJ RT 19:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin .... did you get the E-mail from Jay regarding myself?
Thank you.

eur lg 18:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
While on the subject of the 200 day mvg avg. Historically this has been one of the best indicators when looking for reversals. However its not the avg itself but rather the deviation from the 200 day. Most reliable is when spot deviates 12% away. From 12% it has always reverted to the mean with little if any extension thru 12%. The Dec eur highs (I think) only reached 9.9%. (10% also a good signal but not as good as 12%)...........happy trails

San Diego bobl 18:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
took some gdp/usd profits @ 1.8732 on 67 entry...
'agree that 200 sma a line to always watch...ty

Syd 18:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EURO/USD - One Last Hurrah
by Max McKegg
1/6/2005, Forexnews.com
January 6th - Having met my 1.3500 target the Euro's Uptrend is now in its final stages but with support now around 1.3150, there is opportunity for a climacic advance toward the 1.3950 level over coming weeks, before The Top is "in".

HK RF@ 18:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gold.

Nothing to worry for the current uptrend, as long gold price is above 390 for the time being.

Livingston nh 18:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Bobl - the "difference" this time from earlier chart spots might be the old saw "don't fight the Fed" --
for longer term correction the 200 day MA on most currencies becomes attractive

HK RF@ 18:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hi to all;

My suspect for a medium term pivot point Euro, from the [1.3040,1.3110] range.

If euro goes below 1.3010, we have to reconsider all that idea above.

Gold. maybe people tend to disregard the obvious.

HK RF@ 12:08 GMT January 5, 2005
Gold eventually going to dive to 418.

I suspect that gold may even be beaten below 400 in few weeks, just to demoralize those who place it as a fix idea that it will never see the 400$ anymore this century.


NoVa Lurker 18:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Off the current topic but of interest to certain "loonie-its":

07Jan 12:00 Employment Grwth ,000 Dec 5.0 0.0 13.5 5 - 22
07Jan 12:00 Unemployment Rte % Dec 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 - 7.3

CAN jobs data also out Friday.

Roumeli anka 18:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gold is at an ABC correction. Wave-C is at its end i think.

Dublin Flip 18:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
LOL Irish.
Strain your kallabah madonna for crustaceans and put them on the side thanks Virgil.

Eilat Dophin 18:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ah, the clouds are finally lifting over Europe, but aren't we low on fuel ?

Chicago Irish 18:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
With or without crustaceans Flip?

San Diego bobl 18:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd...
My 2 cents; a lot of rhetoric today about euro this and euro that seemingly entirely focused on the action this week. How important is that? IMHO...not much.

First, a little fundamental thought. What happened to huge gains in 1999 stock market? Those profits were taken big time (and then some) in the beginning of 2000. Big profits are often recorded on first DELAYED tax consequence possible. No big revelation that spec funds cashing in 11 out of 13 closing weeks of lucrative rally. Which brings me to major point...

Intraday charts with daily inspection great for picking trades for near term results. The real story lay in the weeklies imho. Now, examination of the weekly shows a very clear, eye-catching phenomena. We are forming a major engulfing key reversal bar at highs in the euro...scary for the bulls;
UNLESS they examine the charts history! What's that reveal of the key engulfing reversal bars?

I count 3 of these bars in past 4 years of rally that did not have much impact at all. Matter of fact, first was late summer of 2002 at par (1.000)...>>>fast forward to here, woo, we rallied another 35+%. Two other weekly key reversal bars mounted a more substantial correction, but again were taken out to new highs.

I don't follow indicators/oscillators for much more than cursory view, however macd, stocs, roc, and most importantly, modified slow % D overlay, says we need some depth here to shake out the trade. OK, pullback in the works. I stated on Monday I believe, spread (spreaders rule) would take euro under 130 if we closed gap. Who knows? I sure don't.

However, as a technician, I can only look for the truth of chart history and seek to align with that truth. Sure, I have been long dollar all week...archives will show all dollar long posts. However, euro rally over? Take a lot more to convince me. And furthermore, I don't care...I would just like to be on right side of trade as it unfolds. Other than that, I don't know a darn thing.

Dublin Flip 18:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Irish it sounds like a cocktail one orders in the Rainbow Room.
"The usual Virgin Mary sir"
"No Virgil. Tonight I think I'll have a kallabah Madonna"
"Bottoms up I guess then sir" -LOL

Eilat Dophin 18:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Back to FX. Who has a vision here, because I don't ?

Chicago Irish 18:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa...you got the phonic element!

Eilat Dophin 18:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Aint' my type. Too noisy. Young J. Fonda. Apolitical of course.

NoVa Lurker 18:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, maybe he meant "acidic" not hassidic sense of humour

Chicago Irish 18:16 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The Kaballah Madonna sounds like a fine name for a cocktail/FX goddess Eilat.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:16 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
SHEESH, is E/$ gonna short and get off the pot wierd. And I thought this range would be cool to trade..Oh me.

Dublin CK 18:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Chicago Irish - I love the your quick wit and sharp sense of homour LOL

Eilat Dophin 18:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Missin' word! USD/JPY TOP.

Eilat Dophin 18:12 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Irish/ Anything you want, but not hassidik. Thou shalt have no voodoo! Ok, an FX godesses at most, a mermaid some days...

Chicago Irish 18:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ok Eilat........now you're being cryptic..........

Eilat Dophin 18:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The USD/JPY, at least, has been seen for the day.

Chicago Irish 18:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Eilat:Love your hassidic sense of humour,you have an unfair advantage when it comes to bobbing for apples at halloween though:-)

perth ss 18:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
back into short term long gbp& eur+ short jpy.............pip picking's a biatch
indicators showing small (10-30) pip movements @ best..First day back live so a little conservative.will reverse jpy short @1.0544 &gbp long1.8788/ eur1.3198.....possibly add @these levels tho unsure market will allow for tnite.Will load up possies for t/morrow as is end of week one 2005 + a friday!!!
Should be a hoot!!!

FRA Alpha Tango 18:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
euro is still bearish for me , 1.3185 as sell point

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW I have resistance for eur/usd pair around the 3210-20 area for now but no buy signal yet with the intraday indicators drilling holes on the bottom of my monitor. Daily indicators look promising for the bears but the imminent bounce will tell the tale if any is to be seen. GT

Syd 17:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The euro is bouncing after squarely hitting $1.3156 earlier Thursday. A decisive move above $1.3190 would confirm a bottom - possibly a rally as high as $1.3400-area resistance initially

FRA Alpha Tango 17:57 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
sterling should open above 1.8744 to save its skin
euro is a buy if 1.3160 prints before 1.3190

Philadelphia Caba 17:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
IFR: EUR/USD: Fresh Session Lows As Real Money Sells: US
real money accounts are apparently lifting hedges, helping push EUR/USD to a fresh session low around 1.3155 before bouncing. There remains talk of 1.3150 barriers, but stops are noted just below. 1.3140 is key technical support, the
December 10 low. Large stops are rumored below.

Eilat Dophin 17:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Irish/ Oh, Irish, if you cant be British, be Christian at least. (I Promise I won't do it again. ;^))

NoVa Lurker 17:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
the Mexican Peso!

Euro of course.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 17:50 GMT January 6, 2005
OK, now you're talking my language. Yes.

Eilat Dophin 17:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA/ 1.36 ? Hmm.. Won't we hit the silk much sooner ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
lifting headges in what c'ncys?

Chicago Irish 17:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good Bye FRA Alpha Tango

FRA Alpha Tango 17:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
ok ok , I'll be sure in 10 minutes... and might reverse if the configuration suggests it. I thought this new low would have trigger stops but not too much happened..... We could also imagine a double top... 1.36 again..wow!! nice....let's see....

NoVa Lurker 17:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
CARE TO EXPLAIN ??

IFR has been indicating real money accounts are selling (lifting hedges" today.

Eilat Dophin 17:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA/ "Ne vends pas la peau de l'ours avant..." "Don't sell the bear's fur before you killed him."

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 17:38 GMT January 6, 2005
Good bye Euro.... CARE TO EXPLAIN ??

FRA Alpha Tango 17:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good bye Euro....

houston st 17:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
GD -- from the GVI forum...good trades...


houston st 16:08 GMT January 6, 2005

hedge players doing all the volume...



houston st 16:07 GMT January 6, 2005

JOHN -- nat gas inventory was -151 bcf....expectations were for -141 bcf...this move up should be the final one before it tests going under $40...crude riding heat up as usual....gl/gt.

San Diego bobl 17:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...
thank you for your comments. I also very grateful to have opportunity to share and receive information from you and gold coast martin as well as others on this forum. Some educated traders in here, it's great.

Vienna GD 17:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Anybody knows why oil is up 2 bucks, also ng up big ... why?
Can't find any news ... strange!

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bobl, thanks for your beautiful explanation..you're really a thinker! GT to U.

gold coast martin 17:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
...But please keep all positions that were opened before and after 14:26gmt today in the 4 pairs......g/t

Phuket Waverider 17:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
david bkk 17:04 GMT January 6, 2005

Hi there, sure thing just wait for Jay to get back to me. Are you the David I met here in early December?

austin edgy 17:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin. ah. thank you

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 17:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
catch usd/cad for sell when touch 2382 !!
I think dealers worry if quote above 2390.
see you later my friends... I hope you will be right in trade...

gold coast martin 17:12 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
austin edgy 17:07 GMT January 6, 2005
not at all...market rang will widen from the opening of the Asian session tomorrow.....the suggestion below is just until ny close today..for some lunch money so as not to get bored....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I love this range trading stuff..back to normalish before the hurricane cometh...at least I can grab some fast coin.

austin edgy 17:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 17:02 GMT

Martin, do you expect range trading like this for most of period pre NFP?
Your comments would be appreciated

david bkk 17:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Phuket Waverider 16:46 GMT January 6, 2005
Hi I am living in bangkok.
You can get email from jay

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 17:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
dallas.. I totally agree.

perth ss 17:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
ta gep
wise words no doubt
thanx for your input today
glgt

gold coast martin 17:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...trading between my resistance levels and closing levels may produce pips in a capped market for all 4 pairs...monotonous but risk/reward is ok....g/t.....

hong kong nt 17:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
GOLD -- maintain upside bias as long as price stays above 420 line, a break below 417 may remove this bias...

Dallas GEP 16:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ok guys have to leave but this trading day is especially important in terms of your TIMING with your possies. If you get on the wrong side of possie DON'T chase it because it will come back to you as long as we range trade like this BUT you need to have some stops in because with NFP coming up tom., I think some of these USD long positons will bail at least sometime prior to that.

So usually the LAST possie you take prior to breakout will be a losing one so keep possie size the SAME each time.

Roumeli anka 16:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good evening... my last update for usdchf . We are in a five wave advance as wave-A of this correction. Wave -1 and wave-3 are in place. We need to finish this wave-5 up ... and this is for now.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf91.gif

gold coast martin 16:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 16:53 GMT January 6, 2005

You are most welcome RT......

San Diego bobl 16:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
kudos! you sure nailed some numbers early this morning! gotta love it.

taking this spike to take off more usd/cad right now; suspect some pullback, although will keep some on with big cushion now

NJ RT 16:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin - can I ask Jay about your E-mail. Thank you

austin edgy 16:51 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NoVa Lurker

good point-thx

austin edgy 16:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
San Diego- i am quoting feb futures

thx

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
be carefull with 2384 for usd/cad. maybe sellers is there.

gold coast martin 16:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:15 GMT January 6, 2005

Read my 14:26 GMT OF TODAY.......still applies....and the 3 or 4 posts after that......good day.....g/t

San Diego bobl 16:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
i am quoting feb futures

NoVa Lurker 16:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
A last consideration is this: since Dec30, we have a series of trading days wherein lower highs and lower lows have been featured. Unil that pattern can be broken, aggressive longs would have to be considered high risk.

Phuket Waverider 16:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hey Geneva wow nice timing :)

austin edgy 16:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thanks all

Phuket Waverider 16:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gold is 422.40-90 on my platform currently.

GENEVA FHR 16:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gold 422.40/90

San Diego bobl 16:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
feb gold 423.4....down 3.9 bucks

San Diego bobl 16:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
!st out of usd/cad elected at 47; will reload sold contracts on pullback if deep enough; watch action to determine.

austin edgy 16:41 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
anyone know what gold is doing?

Rye, NY et 16:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Rye, NY et 05:56 GMT January 6, 2005
fwiw...re: Eur/Usd...There was a spike down yesterday (1.3220) to the center-line of the major bull channel up from the double-bottom of last spring. The pair was hugging this line in Mid-November and probed it to the upside at the end of the year. As channels go, it's a good signal for a bounce up and out of the channel. I'm playing it just up toward the top line (today, it comes in at 1.3650). So,
Long Eur/Usd 1.3262;cut 1.3185; take 1.3585

This posi was stopped in early London.

As a s/t tactical play, however, it is still valid. I'll wait for the
dust to settle after the unemp release tomorrow to re-enter.

NoVa Lurker 16:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
IFR notes that threre were rumoured USD buys lurking at the London fix. These didn't materialize which may explain the recent upswing if EURUSD and Cable.

NoVa Lurker 16:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW - we have a low at 13141 in place dating back to Dec 10. It may well be tested before a true bottom is in place.

JHB CDB 16:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Taking Short term trades out now. Cheers All GL & GT

San Diego bobl 16:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...re: cable and aud...

On the cable: Cable has broken down, leading the majors in the break. My system has weekly and daily sells there, and this recent bounce on the 2-hr. chart tests the downtrendline there, thus low risk. If it breaks 2-hr downtrendline and daily pivot, then I will take my loss and move on. Also, US financials rebounding while metals failing...a little neg for both pairs. Note: cable mid-july support on daily a concern

On the Aud/usd: Aud daily has "lower high" and lost, rolling over 50sma. Today's pivot @ 7640 was strong support 12/21,12/22,12/23...failed and trapped yesterday, and now today has failed and is testing towards that area now. Therefore, low risk spot for me to take a shot with small size and see if second test fails. Two-hour chart downtrendline scenario same and metals action adds to possibilities.

FWIW...I am more a position trader, however will take smaller size shots when opportunity appears. I am still looking to get long the majors when/if this turns out to be correction.

gt/gl

Eilat Dophin 16:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
CDB/ Aren't we all...

JHB CDB 16:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I too am adding on my EURO longs at market

Jkt Rick 16:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
eur.usd 1.3190, high probability we have seen a short term bottom at 1.3170.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bobl//curious as to what you see in a short for cable and aussie from your last post..?? no offense..just want to know your reasons.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gooday marty..just logged in to platform..where's USD nesting today-tomorrow amigo

Spotforex NY 16:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Jkt Rick

your short was 1.35 has been noted.

You went up against the wind at that time as it tested 1.3650 area, but it is paying off nicely for you.

gll gt
spot

FRA Alpha Tango 16:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Lima Bravo Juliet!
sterling will show some kind of resistance but euro clearly targets 1.3156 then 1.3143 , sell point 1.3181 to 92 and usd/chf 1.1778 and 1.1794 buy point 1.1735 to 52


10 000 with you!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Nice participation from the family that make up this forex forum and good to have seniors from the forex business give us some feed back as well. A sell signal has been given in the daily charts on my system for the eur/usd pair. Main support was taken and now Key daily support (3130-40) is targeted next. I tend to agree with VIIES and the seniors (Athens and BC I mean that in the most respectful way) about this $ correction not lasting much longer but as a pure technical view the correction movement has begun and in longer specs it has a bit more to go as van Gecko has pointed out. Intraday indicators are in O/S area and are limiting their bounce for now. Daily indicators have turned bearish and have some room to go before they are in O/S area. I believe the best thing to do then is to see if this key daily support is taken out and how the market reacts to the NFP ((NEWBIES FEEL PAIN) day) data on Friday. BTW true to my word I have a short on this pair on the break of the main support but I have a tight stop on it with intentions on cutting it loose if it fails to break the key daily support IMHO. GL GT

Jkt Rick 16:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Jkt Rick 17:27 GMT January 4, 2005
Eur/usd, short term players, 1.33 1.325xx 1.315xx could be a bottom for 1.37
medium term players hope you are all on holidays with your shorts.

if u read the archives i am short from the 1.35 levels for 1.00, i wont be going long even if i think its going to 1.37, will short it IF those levels are seen. gl to me.

Spb Aurangzeb 16:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hi everybody!!!! i'll buy cable frm 1.8699, small size, numbers will be shown later

San Diego bobl 15:58 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd sold 1.8763 with 1.8827; target for daytrade 187 area. small size.

aud/usd sold .7612 with stop .7657 and target for 1st out .7575 area and if in good shape on US close, will hold for lower prices.

San Diego bobl 15:51 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gbp/usd ;aud/usd; I am selling small size both these pairs right here for shorter term trade. Low risk spot. Will post numbers in a minute.

perth ss 15:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
jpy seems to be driving the machine.......will jump ship @ or above 105.20 (hoping for the 105.450) and buy some eur& gbp for tomorrow

San Diego bobl 15:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coming off again...reflected but maybe not fully discounted by dollar yet. feels like we may be winding up for another push...we'll see. actually, copper and silver off also, again. Aud/usd may try another test of lows based on this.

bkk david 15:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
martin
Thank you for usdjpy

gold coast martin 15:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 15:38 GMT January 6, 2005...

patience is rewarding.....

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dophin 15:37 GMT January 6, 2005
:-)

bkk david 15:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
How do you think about usdjpy now ?

Eilat Dophin 15:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Sure your name isn't Georges Push?

Brussels ML 15:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I mean Martin

Brussels ML 15:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I'm in for the GBP short Martine.
Thanks for posting your trades.
I followed your JPY trade from yesterday and closed with 90pips profit today.

Philadelphia Caba 15:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:32 GMT January 6, 2005

Thanks for your posting, keep up your good job .... but one should be careful before tomorow's NFP...

gold coast martin 15:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 15:28 GMT January 6, 2005

thats ok..i thought you were day trading thats why i suggested gbp........the yen requires a little more patience and a 2-3 day timeframe to develop...whe upside to that pair is ,once it consolidates above 10545 by monday it has the potential to reach 107 very quickly....g/l....

gold coast martin 15:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 15:27 GMT January 6, 2005
USD/CAD?..i have enough trouble running a book of 4 pairs let alone keeping book on the loonie.....sorry ...no

bkk david 15:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
I think long usdjpy at 104.85, stop 104.47
target 105.50 atleast or 105.85

NJ RT 15:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin. Do you still have usd/cad open?

gold coast martin 15:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Sydney 15:18 GMT January 6, 2005
MORE PERSONAL CREDIT CARD DEBT.....THE AUSSIE NEEDS IT LIKE A HOLE IN THE HEAD......very _ve for aussie in the medium/long term.....

Philadelphia Caba 15:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Left buy order eurusd @ 1.3168, s/l 1.3138, t/p 1.3208.

gold coast martin 15:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 15:17 GMT January 6, 2005
IF want to trade just for today short GBP AT 18760 LEVEL....iT HAS BETTER REWARD RATIO than euro..... stop 18808...targer 18716,,,with further possiblity of 18647,,...g/t.

ny amc 15:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Sydney..............They also gave the most per person average wise to the Tsunami Relief Fund. Great job

Budapest Daniel 15:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thanks for your comments Martin

Sydney 15:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Christmas retail spree tops $21bn
Australians spent money at the rate of almost $500,000 a minute

gold coast martin 15:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
DANIEL...THE CABLE LOW OF 18698 TODAY was achieved on the strong momentum of yen coming out of holiday hibernation... ,,,,we w could see 18716 today before a reversal to current 18760 levels for a close....sub 186 should be seen i hour before NFP figures tomorrow...g/t

bkk david 15:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
Hello, I just come to internet now.
What's is currently good ideas now?

Sell gbpusd or Sell eurusd Where and stop ?

I think usd will go up more, however, it may some time retrace
to build momentum in ny session.

I love NY, but do not money to live there.
Hope Forex will bring me to new york

FRA Alpha Tango 15:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:09 GMT January 6, 2005
I've got 1.8647 on my screen, but yeah, that seems to be the most probable scenario.

NJ RT 15:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I believ eur will go down to 3157 then long

Budapest Daniel 15:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, when do you think gbp/usd will reach today's lows again? Maybe tomorrow?

perth ss 15:10 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
out half gbp quickie/eur/jpy........reverse for bottom/top
fwiw

van Gecko 15:10 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hello Athens.. hope you are fine.. thank you for sharing your views..
old habits die hard & most of us tends to live by & repeat certain behaviors within our pre-defined comfort zones.. quite often, these predictable synergies are reflected on past & future market moves & it provides a good baseline bias for my analytics.. however, as you are well aware of the difference between static & dynamic parameters in your analysis, certain underlying stimulus could & will alter the course of future events and should play a part in our analytics as part of our quest for an 'edge' while trying to keep our fx lives simple as possible at the same time..

Syd.. this is 4th test of the 1.32/31 neckline in the last 5 weeks, a bounce from here could give some top heavy bulls to bailout & m/t bears to add or initiate new possies on approach to 1.34/35.. a break of 1.31 would trigger massive stop sells & increase the odds for 1.36 being the high for the year/m/term..

viies.. Lean Hog seems to had developed a correlation with Gold recently..:) Feb Hog is at 75.50 with Gold testing the $425 neckline.. so a near term break of $425 could see Gold down at $400/395 and a 64 cent Hog.. in which case, lotsa pigs could get slaughtered for future delivery..


gold coast martin 15:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 15:05 GMT January 6, 2005
Yea ,,you are correct another visit to the 18716 area is a must ..then to 18637.....

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
3183 will be tested again for buy level.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
eur will go to 3226 and if that level be broken thats mean will go to 3255.
buy eur now at 3195 for tgt 3226 or 3255 and then cut reverse there

FRA Alpha Tango 15:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Sterling is cooked! target locked at 1.8716

NJ RT 14:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Atl TJ 14:52 GMT January 6, 2005:
Thank you .... I already got it, but if it goes that far down I'll buy more.

New York JT 14:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Boca Raton 00:10 GMT January 6, 2005

Right on, brother.

Atl TJ 14:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 14:35 GMT January 6, 2005

I am holding out for 104.20-40 area to re-enter long USDJPY. Could be wrong though. With NFP on the radar we could settle into some chop and slop range stuff until release.

gold coast martin 14:51 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
HK Nicole 14:45 GMT January 6, 2005
I HAVE POSTED YESTERDAY I EXPECT 6953 RE-VISITED AND SHOULD 6928 is breached we will see 6785-88 very rapidly.....current resistance of 7018(as it was yesterday as well) should hold it for todays ny session....f/t

JHB CDB 14:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Numbai

I think if 1.3215 breaks we will have the others behind us full speed

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
there is level chf that still not yet be touched as ideal top. thats 1788. maybe 1788 will get after touch 1707

HK Nicole 14:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, what's your view on the downside target of NZD/USD? TIA.

Mumbai Jay 14:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I think they are lurking... not very far down

gold coast martin 14:41 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 14:35 GMT January 6, 2005
YES..this is a good level....stops at 10431...targer....10516 first and then 10528 followed by 10579.........refer to my earlier post that was directed to you re: the yen.....g/t

JHB CDB 14:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Where is all the EUR buyers ??

Sydney 14:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Prices Drifting Upward, On US buying IFR

Syd 14:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
swissy topped out right on que 117.78

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad will go to 1.2266-2263 and then up again.

Ldn 14:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Problem is with Data tomorrow , all things are leading to a really bad employment number talked about

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
yes usd/chf will go to 1707 for short term.
for long term...usd/chf go down only for confirmation bottom testing for shoot top 1888. dont be lied by this move.

NJ RT 14:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
MArtin ... do u think is time to go long on usd/jpy ...

perrie como 14:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Solo Raden..I do undestand that in asia when you say "please buy (or sell) has a particular commercial meaning, but It's different the usage of such in the western world.

However you should have posted the Stop level at least.

Regards

Hello Athens
Γειάσου Αθήνα
ένα ενδιαφέρον και σύνθετο έτος θα αποκαταστήσει σε μας τις πάλι
ισχυρές δυνάμεις εξαναγκασμού και τελειότητας

καλή τύχη

london ross 14:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
sell eur/$ gbp/$

Ldn 14:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Jobless claims come in much higher than expected at +43K vs expectations for a +8K reading.

San Diego bobl 14:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
love the bullish action is usd/cad...majors bounced area of 50 pts and cad held it's mud. I am offering some at 47, and if elected will pick some more up lower.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
yes!!! usd/cad sell now !!. ideally go down from arround 2332.
lets see !!

gold coast martin 14:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Ldn 14:27 GMT January 6, 2005
..SORRY I FORGOT MY FAVORITE CURRENCY,,,,aud has resistance at 7648...should hold before a closing of 7598-7604....g/t

dc fxq 14:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 14:20 GMT

maybe it is a misspelling? LoL

Ldn 14:27 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
aud could try for resistance 7660 if Euro heads higher

Ldn 14:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba thks for that hot stuff

gold coast martin 14:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...aS POSTED EARLIER this morning (aussie time),today is mirror image of yesterday.....expect EURO resistance level of 13218 to hold before euro settles into a 13175-85 range at close.....yen :resistance level of 10441 to hold before a close of 10487......gbp: 18808 to hold before 18745-58 close......

btw...this is not a week for the euro lovers or the dollar well-wishers to get excited ,expecting a deeper correction or a deeper retracement....trade the dips ....g/t

perrie como 14:25 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
PLEASE SELL cad now by Solo Raden

are you the Selfish Benevolent Traders Aid Advisor???

Philadelphia Caba 14:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
IFR : EUR/USD On the expiry front: 1.3225, 1.3240, 1.3260, 1.3265, 1.3270, 1.3290, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3335, and 1.3350 strikes roll off at today"s NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside an estimated E1bn 1.3465 strike, a E800mn 1.3700 EUR call, and a E800mn 1.2900 EUR put.

Budapest Daniel 14:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
a bulltrap right? :)

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hello.. still remember my level about 1.2332?. please sell usd/cad now !!

EU ZORRO 14:15 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

...Bought ECHO UNIFORM ROMEO here...

NJ RT 14:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 14:02 GMT January 6, 2005 :
Thank you. I'll hold on the pos. as long as I can.

Mumbai Jay 14:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Shanghai BC.. Many thanks.

FRA Alpha Tango 14:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
WARNING!!! that's a bull trap! BUY THE GREENBACK!

sterling : sell at 1.8750
euro at 1.32
chf is a buy !!!

Tallinn viies 14:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
for the records .... :)
if todays option expiries past (after 58 min) I plan to cover my short euro if it is still under 1,32
fwiw

San Diego bobl 14:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT on usd/cad...
There is substantial support at the area of the lows of today;
1.2236. This level is literally the low range level of much of December's ascending flag that failed, producing a bull trap. The fact that we traded down to reverse head and shoulders neckline and held and moved back into range levels suggests trap was just that, and that we are looking to take a shot at 1.2500 by this time next week.

Note: tomorrow's number (employment data in US) could blew all technicals out the window and we start all over again. The Canadian dollar can be it's own trading mechanism, not necessarily hanging around with the big dogs. I have added to usd/cad today, building upon my stated position yesterday.

FRA Alpha Tango 14:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
lima bravo yankee zulu , SELL YOUR DOLLARS !!! NOW !!!! Lol!
super price :
sterling 1.8720
euro : 1.3180
chf : 1.1770 , second hand 1.1750

100 pips return

shanghai bc 13:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

MUMBAI 13;26 -- Happy new year..I have been buying since yesterday around 1.3200 in fact..Guess I will keep buying for a few more days and see how the first operation of the new year goes from there..Crosses are acting in a meek way for Dollar to have a strong leg to advance in this round..I guess most noisy moves were made while most heavyweights were out of the market..And twice of Dollar Index approach towards 80 level and bounces occured in a thin market..I am reasonably confident we will soon see Euro making a upmove again towards 1.35..Then,again,a good Euro correction of multi-months may be not that far away from up there..Good trades..

NJ RT 13:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl :
Where do u see the support for usd/cad now? Thank you

San Diego bobl 13:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
eur/usd...
Several supporting features at work right now;
1) testing lows of last consolidation pattern and 1st pivot back in 132 area down to 1.3140 area.
2) lower bollinger band
3) 5 consecutive days down (oversold)
4) short term indicators and ossilators oversold
5) market achieved and successfully held 3 2-hour tests of 2nd support

May bounce here, however, if we can't defend this level, pure momentum features will take it down further. No big nod from the gold camp this morning yet.

On another note; usd/cad gained well last night and looks solid this morning thus far.

Surabaya Medallion 13:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I think 1.318 would hold until tomorrow NFP.

Philadelphia Caba 13:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
jobless claims 364k

GENEVA FHR 13:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
weekly jobless claims + 43k

Tallinn viies 13:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 12:47 GMT - no idea about cad. trying to concenrate only to one cross. if too many of them then I tend to find connections and correlation between each oothers which not tend to be there :)

Tallinn viies 13:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
DJ: Pit participation could be on the light side in the financial futures this morning. A snow storm which began over 24-hours ago has dropped around nine inches of the white stuff on the Chicago area. City trucks still out trying to clean up the mess.
fwiw

Mumbai Jay 13:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Shanghai BC.. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. EUR has broken the 50 DMA, though not on a closing basis..sub-130 seems a viable target for this bear run..your comment will be appreciated. TIA

Philadelphia Caba 13:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good morning everyone!
Bought small possie eurusd @ 1.3170, s/l 1.3138, t/p open now. GT!

Halifax CB 13:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW a a newish EURUSD chart is available, click on the link. FWIW, st, all my bets are off until after the jobless claims; my mid term outlook (4-5 months) for the Euro is down (to around 1.27).

Makassar Alimin 13:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:28 GMT January 4, 2005
happy new year everyone
should euro close below 1.3433 later, i expect 1.3174 to be printed
good calls martin! well done!

Well, just go online and am very glad that target was reached, probably will see a bit more downside but I am flat now and will see tomorrowś action after NFP to determine next major possie...in the mean time, will be scalping should opportunities show up gl gt

Andorra Qwerty 13:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 20:25 GMT January 2, 2005
The following post is still valid ... Prosperous 2005 to everyone.

*************************************
Andorra Qwerty 14:03 GMT December 29, 2004
"Contrarian Work System" trades :
- Sold Eur/Usd 1.3621 ... target 1.3 at least
- Bought Usd/Chf 1.1325 .... target 1.2 at least
- Holding Sell on Gbp/Usd from 1.945 .... target 1.87 at least

Next move should yield at least 2k pips.

*************************************

>>Closed trades, Euro 1.3181, Swiss 1.1765, Gbp 1.87 (full target met) .... there are short-term signs of rebound, so I'll wait for things to stabilize to enter the market again. Tomorrow's data is also a factor to book profits.

those 3 trades yielded : +440, +440, +750 = +1,630 pips ... not a bad start of the year.... Gl everybody

Qwerty .... keep it simple



Athens 13:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies, I don't know about pigs and sheep but long term patterns often repeat themselves and so I surely agree broadly with your 10:58 view about a strong retracement very probably coming form a certain nearby level.

JB, thank you.

beirut jb 12:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hi Athens

nice to c u posting again here and happy new year

hope u will have a prosperous year 2005

I will be arround more starting february, i m considering to

take a trial in financial forum too

take care

london ross 12:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
eur long---bay when gold prais will 400/410

JHB CDB 12:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thank you.

FRA Alpha Tango 12:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
JHB CDB 12:44 GMT January 6, 2005

I meant sell at 1.3205 for 1.3157 then buy at this level for a nice up move

Sydney 12:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD: Oversold And Overdone, Risk To 1.3215-20
IFR

NJ RT 12:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies :
Remember last year (december) when you said that eur/usd will go down to 1.3180 ? Good call there. What's your view on usd/cad ? The 1.2270 resistance was taken. Does this became a support now? Thank you.

JHB CDB 12:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA Alpha Tango 12:42 GMT January 6, 2005
what I see:
euro/usd up to 1.3205 then the trend should resume for an other 40 pips move

Are you saying 1.3205 correction or 1.3160 EUR Bearish trend ?

FRA Alpha Tango 12:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
what I see:
usd/chf down to 1.1744 while euro/usd up to 1.3205 then the trend should resume for an other 40 pips move. Sterling could go up to 1.8750 then down to 1.8685 where it's a " good buy" for a nice correction.....

JHB CDB 12:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB

Thank You, I have a STOP entry at 1.32 long though, just wasn't sure if the $ will be able to keep steam rolling :)

Halifax CB 12:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:21 GMT January 6, 2005
Being the good Maritimer I am, I have to say they all look the same in the dark....

Halifax CB 12:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
JHB CDB - It might be advisable to wait until after the jobless claims report at 1330 GMT before making anything firm on USD based pairs. GL/GT

FRA Alpha Tango 12:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
the 4 hour chart of sterling/dollar opened below the last 4 hour support. A very bad sign IMO. Short at 1.8723. Roger?

JHB CDB 12:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Too any trader out there:

What can the direction be expected for the EUR/USD in the next 4 hours ?

Tallinn viies 12:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
yes, and big pigs are look alike sheeps from the long distance

Hong Kong Qindex 12:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
If you are a day trader it is okay to take the profit now and wait for a better position to buy USD.

london ross 12:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
if eur faals 1.27.. we will see mega trend,27 is important support

NJ RT 12:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thank you Martin .... go and relax a bit. Can't be here 24/7.

Surabaya Medallion 12:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Is this a good idea to sell EUR & AUD in front of NFP report on Friday? I don't think so since NFP data is usually bad in the beginning of the Year.

Athens 12:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko 11:18, I am sure that as a very experienced trader you certainly know that apples and oranges tend more to become alike in the long run, much more so than in the short run. Althoug perfect equalities are mostly formed by coincidence, the omh term patterns tend to repeat. In this sense, big long term trends only very rarely turn in sharp V=shaped angles and, much more often, a first sharp 500-700 pip correction is followed by a strong retracement as the market doesn't give up easily the long term trend. May I also add that historically megatrends have almost never been reversed without concerted CB action. Technically speaking, although I am expecting some retracement from current or a little higher USD levels, I agree that the correction thus far is very shallow on a medium term basis and we should see considerably better levels for the Dollar in coming weeks but the moves won't be on a straight line. As I said at the beginning, I have no doubt you are well familiar with patterns, so this comment is not a tutorial but only a reminder.

Hello Dolphin and Como Perrie.

Eilat Dolphin 12:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FRA/ Yes. Tango Yankee Alpha Time. You just stirred up some nostalgia. I used to cross many a sea with a "Tango Yankee Alpha" Beech A 55. :^((


The euro should climb till tomorrow early morning at .O47 pm. (pip/min)

london ross 12:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
this is 3 step,it dan. usa ses.. cams 4 step

iran hamid 12:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hi all.

what do you think about long euro?(3192)

FRA Alpha Tango 11:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
It's time to sell your dollars!

gold coast martin 11:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
10445-48=10458-63...SORRY.....tired need to stop posting....g/t

Tallinn viies 11:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko 11:18 GMT - sorry. my mistake. I promise I do not compare bigs with sheeps

gold coast martin 11:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Post below directed to NJ RT...

gold coast martin 11:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 10:48 GMT January 6, 2005
gold coast martin 09:50 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw...Since my yen entry level was missed,the yen flows for the next 2-6 hours will take it to the 10521 level....with further gains to 10579 if critical barrier of 10528 is breached...g/t
above post applies if 10528 level is breached,,,,,,,to target 10579....but i dont think tonite.....yen will resume a stop start movement which may delay the breach of the 10528 level....
In short ...wait a little to long as we may see 10445-48 levels....then you can long with 2 target scenarios...one at 10528 and a 10579 if you are more patient.....g/t

Global-View Gendk/QIndex Special 11:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

Gendk and QIndex: Special Half Price Offer:


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NJ RT 11:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good morning gents .... just got up and saw that my usd/jpy was closed @ 105.00 + 90 pips. Finally. Patience pays. Also usd/cad surprised me ... in good.
Martin, where do u see usd JPY, next? My p/l was @105.00 knowing that this is an active resistance. I'm thinking to open another long @ this moment. Thank you

Syd 11:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko congratulations on your call - new it would come good eventually
whats the top side before a further fall for the Euro this month if any cheers

van Gecko 11:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
viies 10:54.. the past do provide some clues for the future.. but you can't compare apples to oranges since not all moves are created or must end equal .. imo under the present market dynamics euro will be lucky to reprint 1.35 from 1.29 this time around.. cheers..

Ldn 11:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Euro-Region Retail Sales Rise for First Month in Five on Gains in Germany...bloombergs

Halifax CB 11:10 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Got up this a.m & took a look at the 5 minutes for the majors +2 over the last 24 hours, it's been awhile since I've seen 6 charts so completely correlated. I guess whatever is going on out there is very dollar dominated. OTOH, there does seem to be a clean 24hr uptrend in the EURJPY cross....Anyway, I refreshed my plots from last night, though I am going to ignore them for the time being and watch the cross. If you are interested in the plots there's a bit of a discussion last night around 0400? describing them..GL/GT

Gen dk 11:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Malaga boqueron 11:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tallin

have to agree. Just witnessing a severe shakeout. I'm waiting for cable 1,83-1,84 to load up for the trip back to 1,95, and the eventual test of 2,00. Looking at GBPJPY in the meantime for clues.

Eilat Dolphin 11:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
bg/ To answer your question, on E/$: if you can display trend lines on your software, especially on the 4H charts, you'll see than in the last year, no matter what jobs jumber were expected, the E/$ snake always did his best to crawl toward the middle of the range while waiting for those Friday news.

So if the E doesn't descent another 30 or 50 ps from here, we should be in line tomorrow with a print of 1.3232 or around, but not much to the downside, imho, possibly higher.

gold coast martin 11:01 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   


GENEVA FHR 10:56 GMT January 6, 2005
If you look in the archives there is a post that i posted yesterday moving all my stops on all my possies by 20 pips when the euro ,yen was moving close to my stops...so that i can determine movement....in a later post i posted why and that i left all my positions open overnight fo today......hope that explains...thats day trading for you.....hope that explains it....g/t

GENEVA FHR 10:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin i don't understand your doll/Yen post.
Low doll/yen 103.75 16.07GMT 5.01. So how did you keep your possie as your stop were at 77 and 93.

Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I would like to add to Athens that from the last year for example...

from the beginning of december euro moved from 1,1950 up to 1,2900. approximatelly 1000 points. mostly done by the funds and interbank fron running, corporates suck ers lost it all. from 1,2900 down to 1,2350 with 1st week of new year. approx 550 points!!!

so, basically we have been doing it all over again. after 1,2950 traded we may go up to 1,3550 again and probably range trade for some time....

istanbul bg 10:49 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
let's say euro/dol will be around 1,31 - 1,3150 . i know tomorrow is another story but i have two questions:

- tomorrow europe time what will be euro/dol waiting around 1,31 -1,32

- tomorrow US time, after data what will be the effect?

comments apperaciated

gold coast martin 10:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 09:50 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw...Since my yen entry level was missed,the yen flows for the next 2-6 hours will take it to the 10521 level....with further gains to 10579 if critical barrier of 10528 is breached...g/t

FWIW..waiting for next target of 10579...may not be tonite though........g/t

gold coast martin 10:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:34 GMT January 5, 2005
LONG YEN @1408(THIS MORNINGS ENTRY LEVEL )......T/P 10516...STOP @10377......G/T

also will short GBP at this mornings original entry level of 18868 if seen.....g/t

gold coast martin 14:16 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw...LONG YEN.....@10426.....T/P 10519...STOP....10393.....USING 10396 as resistance level....g/t

fwiw....taking profit at 10516.....on one possie ......g/t

perth ss 10:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
la fxnew
yeh, but just for a quickie.......1.8715 tgt1.8772 stop1.8680 but will look @ reverse 8700

perrie como 10:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
except Usd/Jpy for those who are not already long here
this 105++ is now supporting higher grounds

good appetite

perrie como 10:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
To me the Usd today is going to print a new high...beware and be patient

g/l now ...this euro sleepy session was good for admin works more than else

perrie como 10:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
tks much Athens...and many contra profitabilitis to you too

PS

think this applies very much on forex too: "The Selfish Altruist" or beware of market data as of proper donating as of many other things on this crowded world (6 bios consumers around!))

"You have to start by being aware that aid workers come with a lot of baggage from their own culture," says Vaux. "You need to be constantly questioning yourself."

The Selfish Altruist: Relief Work in Famine and War, £18.99 (Earthscan Publications)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/famine/story/0,12128,736886,00.html

LA fxnew 10:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
anybody long cable now???
thanks

London. 10:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Was hearing NFP will be around 80.000 from CNBC programe ananlyst ..

hong kong nt 10:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- enter 70, stop 20...

Malaga boqueron 10:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
thanks Tallinn

Eilat Dolphin 10:16 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good Seeing You Around, Athens!

Tallinn viies 10:13 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Malaga boqueron 09:54 GMT - wwwre fco spotcom

Athens 10:12 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thanks ADK. Yes, I am fine. All the best to you.

London ADK 10:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Athens - Happy new year to you . Trust you are well.

Syd 10:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gold hasnt moved has it I seee $425.7

Athens 10:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Re my 09:30 GMT December 29, indeed the USD has made a significant correction during the first few days of the new year as expected. However, caution is advised as the three european currencies have now entereded short term oversold territory and the market could backfire for a while from current or slightly higher USD levels. Good luck and have a profitable trading year all.

London. 10:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Risk Aversion Index fell to 3.82 last month from 4.01 in November - its lowest since April 2000. Fifth month of decline suggests index has entered a downward trend and adds to constructive view towards US equities and emerging market credits
reuters.

Sydney 09:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Bears buying US dollars, but eyeing next drop
view

London ADK 09:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Francesc is that you

Malaga boqueron 09:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

Tallinn viies 09:06 GMT January 6, 2005
re sold 1,2975 euro put expiry at 31/01. got 56 ticks.
free money as Im more than happy to buy euros there

can you recommend any place where I can get reliable quote on option prices - different strike prices , expiry dates? TIA

Jay, hope you don't mind me asking.

Ldn 09:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSISMizuho Corporate Bank

gold coast martin 09:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 08:36 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw...anyone who entered GBP ABOVE 18815 ..Will be well rewarded ....has downsided to 18717 first followed by 18634.....censored it..i missed it.....i will enter gbp short at 18808........g/t

The reversal that i was looking for for the cable after the 18791 target(18850-60) has NOT occured within my posted timeframe so the above 2 targets apply from now.....in the event of a mini reversal i will short at the above 18808 figure.......g/t

perrie como 09:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
funny machines at the end are so simple, It's just humans irrational.

off
have fun

Ldn 09:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
UK PMI services index 54.9 in Dec Vs 56.7 in Nov. DJN forecast 56.5. 21st straight month of expansion despite slowdown. Data follows the manufacturing PMI Tuesday which also slipped back from Nov highs, although remained comfortably beyond the key 50.0 level.

perrie como 09:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Obivously Gbp data will be bearish the pound

g/l

Ldn 09:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
GBP Official Reserves 9:30 gmt CIPS Services PMI Services Survey (DEC)

Ldn 09:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
UK Service Data Awaited

Tallinn viies 09:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
sold 1,2975 euro put expiry at 31/01. got 56 ticks.
free money as Im more than happy to buy euros there ...

Dallas GEP 08:58 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Shorted usd/jpy at market 30 pip stop

van Gecko 08:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
good day valdez.. nothing magic, its simple price actions in conjunction with classic tools confirming the foot prints of elephants.. cheers..

Hong Kong Qindex 08:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:03 GMT January 6, 2005
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized level in this series, namely 1.1512 and 1.2086 and the mid-point reference is 1.1799. The neutral zone is 1.1224 - 1.1512 and the mid-point reference is 1.1368. A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.1224 - 1.1265. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2086. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.1512).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.1224* // 1.1368 - {1.1512} - 1.1656 - 1.1799* - 1.1943 - {1.2086} // 1.2230 - 1.2373* ...


Curve B : ... 1.1224 // 1.1320* - 1.1416 - {1.1512} - 1.1607 - 1.1703* - 1.1799 - 1.1895 - 1.1991 - {1.2086} // 1.2180 ...


Curve C : ... 1.1183* - 1.1265 // 1.1347 - 1.1430 - {1.1513}* - 1.1594 - 1.1676 - 1.1758 - 1.1840* - 1.1922 - 1.2004 - {1.2086} // 1.2168* ...


lax-lgb SNP 08:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
£/¥ is starting to paint a failed bear flag

Ldn 08:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hong kong nt long

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
adios..have to sleep..23 hrs is enough. GT exited euro short.

gold coast martin 08:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 08:01 GMT December 17, 2004
SanFrancisco TG 07:51 GMT December 17, 2004
......
As far as euro is concerned..lets not forget that we are still over 130...which is still top heavy(fundamentally for the euro}..as i said 3 weeks ago,unless we see the 13085 barrier breached we are still in the euro lovers side of the fence..these corrections are what is needed to effectively shake the market and get the market to re-focus on the EU FUNDAMENTALS..which of courese can be more euro negative than euro positive..given the so-called twin deficit,,,,,,,,g.t

I brought this out of the archives to try and put the current market into perapective...13085 will need to be breached for me to continue with monthly / yearly long view of last year....which many of view know ..as i was a long term dollar bull with a capital b....it is a thought i posted as i am formulating a mothly/quarterly view for 2005/......g/t

Tallinn viies 08:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
MNS reports main bids at 1,3150/55 level.

strangly my take-profit and going long orders are also sitting there....
1,3110/15 is 38,2% retracement level if havnt noticed btw

Hong Kong Qindex 08:38 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:32 GMT January 5, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3328. The neutral zone is 1.3248 - 1.3407. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.3232 - 1.3248. A projected resistant level is located at 1.710 - 1.3725. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position when the market is trading below 1.3487)


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.3089* - 1.3169 - 1.3248 // {1.3328} - 1.3407* - 1.3487 - 1.3566* - 1.3646 - 1.3725 // 1.3805 - 1.3884* ...


Curve B : ... 1.3041* - 1.3137 - 1.3232 // {1.3328} - 1.3423* - 1.3519 - 1.3614* - 1.3710 // 1.3805* ...


Curve C : ... 1.2692* - 1.2851 // 1.3010 - 1.3169 - {1.3328}* - 1.3487 - 1.3646 // 1.3805 - 1.3964* ...

hong kong nt 08:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD -- load at 00...

Dallas GEP 08:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
usd/jpy won't get past 105 IMO so bottom side on euro may be limited

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
vic..reentered shorts at 3189

Dallas GEP 08:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Soory bonehead mistake...closed euro shorts will relaod

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
yea amigo..Victor...buenas dias!

prague viktor 08:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez..Hi amigo.Euro ´for now is like that song (dust in the wind.).so play it safetly till the end...G/T

Dallas GEP 08:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
OK closed eur/usd longs will reload

LA 08:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hi guys, Whats the point reason making US$ soar you think.And where it will be. back to 1.25(Euro/Us$).

Dallas GEP 08:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
1.3160 maybe 1.3140

JHB CDB 08:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hi GEP

What is your Intraday outlook for EUR/USD today? :)

Sydney 08:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD O/N Buoyed by NFP Risk - Raft of Expiries

Sydney 08:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
A few positive stuff in press re Aud .. careful dont get caught on wrong siide

Services sector records further growth
LINK

Southcorp tipped as takeover target
There is speculation in financial markets that wine giant, Southcorp, may soon be the target of a takeover.
LINK
Southcorp is one of the the biggest Australian-owned wine companies and one analyst says it could attract a bid from spirits company Diageo,
The British company markets Smirnoff Vodka and Johnny Walker Scotch.

Shawn Burns from Deutsche Asset Management says the popularity of the cheaper Australian wines overseas might attract a takeover.

New home sales rebound
LINK

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:11 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gecko baby! When ever you surface things pop..welcome back. Not wet from high waves amigo? Hope your vacation was safe and fun. OK, so you feel the mother of all support lines may be hit...not questioning you but tell me your magic...details please please

van Gecko 08:08 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Euro had kissed good bye to 1.36 (yes, good bye.. not good buy)..
last year's Q4 'Dollar Bear Brigade' had turned into Q1 'Dollar Bull Brigade'.. these elephants now has 1.3000/2950 in sight with a 1.25/20 m/t target..
Cheerios..

Dallas GEP 08:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
shorted euro at market...15 pip stop

gold coast martin 08:07 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 07:58 GMT January 6, 2005
Right now that we are day trading the targets are as i posted....long term targets i will be able to provide after the 15th of january when i finish all the timeframe research that will coincide with the return to work of most institutional funds.....until then ..keep play 1,2,3 day game....g/r

Eilat Dolphin 08:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Oil underground, you know, like in Quatar; olive oil, above ground, on trees, like in Portugal or Greece.

Which commodity pays more ?

The good one makes nations selfish, just ask the Norvegians...

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
up 22 hours..SHORT Euro damit..don't have all night!!! LOL Me thinks 1.31 is necessary for the big climb of E/$ to December highs as other peaks did the last 3 years. Got to have a little bottom pressure here for that nice 600 pip long once 'the boys' get in their fighting chairs and cast the line.

Sydney 08:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Data points to bumper Christmas for retailers
There is statistical evidence that it has been a bumper Christmas season for the retail industry with the latest Cashcard Retail Activity Index indicating a sizeable jump in sales.The Australian Retailers Association says the index for December confirms it was a very positive trading month for the retail sector across Australia

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:01 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dolfin! amigo! what does that mean..you got me on that one! LOL

Eilat Dolphin 07:59 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
valdez/ How strange, those that have oil: UK, Norway, don't feel European with their wallet, while those that have only olive oil do.

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:58 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
marty..what's your long tgt now for cable and euro?

Dallas GEP 07:57 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Cable and euro both BID now

gold coast martin 07:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...Still have aud,nzd and limited euro short layers in anticipation of the 13160 target...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:53 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I think you will findLondon that England can be very happy with not joining the Euro crowd. As time goes on this year I'd say Euro will see some real problems..just my op based on my model..which has been right all year.

gold coast martin 07:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...Closed seuro short possies from 13288 at 13202......target of 13160 still valid.......due to the stop start nature of the yen that is driving the current move...if stalling persists expect euro and gbp to bounce as per my post from this early afternoon (aussie time)////////...g/t

Budapest Daniel 07:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I see Martin...

Ldn 07:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
French Consumer Sentiment Index comes in at -25 in Dec, worse than economists' forecasts of -23. Data shows the French are more worried about perspectives for standard of living, and about inflation. Concerns over unemployment also weighed on result. This could lead to drop in consumer spending, which has been fueling GDP growth over past quarters

Ldn 07:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
French Dec Consumer Sentiment Index Below -21 Forecast

Dallas GEP 07:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
closed gbp/usd shorts

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:43 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
sg..wait for Friday..dollar will gain til then amigo.

gold coast martin 07:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
DANIEL.....This market is teaching traders to respect market both ways....

Eilat Dolphin 07:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Happy morning all! Sound market. A bit too fast, but sound.
I don't expect 1.3180-75 within an hour or two yet. If so today probable, it should take more.

sg 07:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
since everyone is so dollar bullish, i guess buying euro at the market is a safe bet

Tallinn viies 07:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
enlighten positions here at figure a bit to give them back later under 1,3270

gold coast martin 07:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Closing balance of cable at posted target of 18753 at 18761....possibly more downside but i will wait for the reversal.....remember mirror image trading pattern of yesterday.....giveor take 10 pips....g/t

Budapest Daniel 07:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
pretty easy bucks these days.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF : Heading towards 1.1799.

Dallas GEP 07:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Target 8730 on gbp shorts

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
They can yell all they want about how weak the usa is but tell you what...who ya gonna call? L:OL

Hong Kong Qindex 07:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Spot Gold : With a little bit of luck one may see 407.9 in January.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : Looking forward to see 0.7502 to be printed within this week.

Dallas GEP 07:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Short again at markey on gbp/usd

hong kong nt 07:25 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- may see similar daily range as y'day, 1.320-1.332..

istanbul bg 07:22 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
yesterday we could not see euro/dol 1,3150; hopefully today we will see it.

Sydney 07:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EUR Risk Still Down, Repat A Concern IFR view

Sydney 07:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EUR ECON: German November Retail Sales - Very Weak

Dallas GEP 07:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Took profit GBP/USD shorts will reload

Hong Kong Qindex 07:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
move your s/l down as you go!!! Don't ride this bareback.

gold coast martin 07:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...The current movement of the cable is dependant upon the yen movement....the movement of the yen will be a start and stall affair to the 105 level due to the fact that the yen flows are coming from exporters orders..g/t

gold coast martin 07:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
fwiw....Taking profit on one of my posted target of 18791 from yesterday.....this move on cable has more downside since it arrived earlier than my posted timeframe...down to 18753 before a reversal.......if you are patient wait for that or just take profit at the 18791 and wait to re-enter.....g/t

Tallinn viies 07:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
good morning world!
euro close under 1,3310/15 suggest more downside ahead.
first target of course 1,3210/15 but its nothing compared to 1,3150/60 and 1,3130/35 levels.
level which is out of touch today is 1,3090/95 but tommorow is another you know.
resistance levels we all know - 1,3310/15 is a key level. immidiate pressure off the table when 1,3315 taken out.
short term resistance at 1,3275/80. suggesting to sell infront of that and stop and reverse to 1,3325/30.
good luck and have a nice one

Hong Kong Qindex 07:01 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:01 GMT January 5, 2005
USD/JPY : As shown in my weekly cycle charts a projected barrier is located at 103.64 - 103.70.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : The short term target is 105.24.

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:58 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
ss// GEP has taken such a beating from rude posters he is likely hesitant about being as specific as before..can't blame him..nothing against you at all. When faithful posters are abused they tend to...

Los Angeles ss 06:52 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Gep, which support level breaking are you referring to?

Dallas GEP 06:48 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Shorted gbp/usd at market

Dallas GEP 06:29 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Watch gbp/usd carefully, A break of this support level and it could go short quite a ways.

Sydney 06:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Literally Collapse IFR report

houston st 06:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

RT -- some games @ the Tokyo cut off...gl/gt.

gold coast martin 06:05 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
LAST 3 hours=higher level than the level of 10325-30 of the last 3 hours.....

Syd 06:03 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
The dollar rose against the yen in Asia Thursday boosted by Japanese investors' bids, while few traders were willing to test the U.S. unit's downside ahead of Friday's expected upbeat U.S. December jobs data. The greenback also held firm against the euro, as the single European currency's overnight drop to a three-week low of $1.3213 made more players bearish on the euro's near-term outlook, prompting them to unwind euro-long positions, traders said.

gold coast martin 06:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT....Nothing just retrating back to base for another bounce off its resistance to start new movement to a higher level of the last 3 hours..g/t

NJ RT 06:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Anything that I miss .... what's going on with usd/jpy ?

Rye, NY et 05:56 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...re: Eur/Usd...There was a spike down yesterday (1.3220) to the center-line of the major bull channel up from the double-bottom of last spring. The pair was hugging this line in Mid-November and probed it to the upside at the end of the year. As channels go, it's a good signal for a bounce up and out of the channel. I'm playing it just up toward the top line (today, it comes in at 1.3650). So,
Long Eur/Usd 1.3262;cut 1.3185; take 1.3585

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Singapore 05:31 GMT January 6, 2005
"quito_ecuador_valdez 05:23 GMT - Dollar 82.56"
That value is for December that I gave per chart at FxStreet dot com.. to which I linked..check it please,
above the chart says:
"31 Dec 2004 Close=80.86 High=81.11 Low=80.39 Open=80.63 "
says ..80.8600 "on the button" on the chart below it..just going by that amigo. Thanks tho.

NJ RT 05:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
london jk 05:47 GMT January 6, 2005 :
Good site ...thnx

london jk 05:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com has the best free US investment links on the net...also good news/commentary....and an odds board...check it out.

Philly MD 05:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Does anybody know this guy?

http://winningtradersassociation.com/payrolltrading.html

NJ RT 05:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thank you Martin

ny 05:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
TRADE RESULTS 1.5.05 http://forexns.tripod.com/

1) EUR/GBP SHORT .7046 CLOSE .7043 +3 PIPS

2) USD/CHF SHORT 1.1697 CLOSE 1.1622 +9 PIPS

3) EUR/USD SHORT 1.3240 CLOSE 1.3261 +21 PIPS

4) GBP/USD SHORT 1.8873 CLOSE 1.8850 +23 PIPS

5) USD/JPY SHORT 103.97 CLOSE 103.92 +5 PIPS

6) USD/CAD SHORT 1.2264 CLOSE 1.2251 +13 PIPS

7) GBP/USD BUY 1.883275 CLOSE 1.8839 +6 PIPS

8) EUR/USD BUY 1.3256 CLOSE 1.3262 +6 PIPS

9) EUR/USD SHORT 1.3269 CLOSE 1.3275 +6 PIPS

10) USD/CHF SHORT 1.1683 CLOSE 1.1678 +5 PIPS

11) EUR/USD BUY 1.3261 CLOSE 1.13266 +5 PIPS

Singapore 05:31 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:23 GMT - Dollar 82.56

ny 05:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
CHECK THIS SITE OUT:

http://forexns.tripod.com/

http://forexns.tripod.com/

gold coast martin 05:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
VALDEZ.....YOU HAVE MAIL.......G/T

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
For traders who don't know the importance or even what the "Dollar Index" (USDX) is, check THIS link. USDX is an important too, is realtive USD's strength compared to a basket of major currencies. The lower the index, the less value the USD has in its crosses. Since 1973 (the base period) USDX has been in range of 160s down to high 70s. Right now it's 80.86. True to form with the 10 year USD/CHF chart which says the USD can fall a bit more than Dec '04 low, note that also USDX can slip more than a point lower and still be within range. Check a USDX chart.

gold coast martin 05:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 05:17 GMT January 6, 2005
In short YES......Same targets ,same stops....g/t

NJ RT 05:17 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin .....
Hello, Just got back from a long and busy day - better day tomorrow - I hope ... I was wondering if you still have the same opinion on usd/jpy ... where do you see resistance on this pair. Just to refresh here I have a long @ 104.05 s/l 103.64 and a long on usd/cad @1.2305 s/l 1.2200.
Thank you so much.

Los Angeles ss 05:00 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin, as always appreciate your explanations and thorough responses, as do many members of this board. Good trades to you tonight.

gold coast martin 04:57 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 04:45 GMT January 6, 2005
Asper my post yesterday,today is mirror image of yesterdays trading pattern...if holding cable short from yesterday from 18868-70 levels ,take profit at 18791 level which i expect to be reached once the london session is 1 hour plus into it...when such level is reached take profit.....as i believe the chance to buy again at 18860 levels will present again 2 to 3 hours before the NY session starts...
IN short i expect cable to shorten below 188 within the first 2 hours of the UK session,after which a level of 18860should be reached before ny opens..once this level is reacged it will consolidate around the 18820-35 range for the duration of the ny session...you may want to long it in the first 2 hours of the uk session, and ride it to the 18860 range after which you can cut and reverse..if you want to maximise todays cable movement...depends on your trading timeframe and patience level.....g/t for now....

shanghai bc 04:50 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

TH -- Good afternoon..Dollar index 80 has been a decade-old support and I tend to reduce positions towards that line each time too..This round of Dollar bounce is when we approached it for the second time..The first time was early December..Not sure if 80 will contain Dollar floor this time but with medium-term oversold posion plus approaching decade old support,Dollar must find some support and bounce too ..Hardly a sign of Dollar strength but a bounce only..83 is fine for me to re-start selling..But will reduce again if and when Dollar approaches 80 again..There must be a strong event to make Dollar fall through 80 or we may really start seeing some folks aggressively buying Dollars soon betting on 80 long-term/medium-term floor..Good trades.

ICT ML 04:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good to be back online.......just finally got electricity back after this freak ice storm over these past several days destroyed all the trees and power lines that were near them. Good thing too it was starting to get COLD in here.....LOL

I see euro came off quite a bit over the holidays. Sterling came off a bunch and CAD is in same general area. Aussie seems to be lagging the $$$ move so far, it either catches up or the others bounce back. Personally don't know yet which I believe to be true.

Guess I'll have to pull up the charts with absolutely no "voodoo lines" on them and start 2005 with a fresh tech perspective. But on the fundy's, I think the fed is about to start pumping rates faster than anyone expects/wants so there could/might be a $$$$ positive fundy scenario developing.......

Here is to Peace in GV and may we all catch the mother of all FX moves this year !!

Los Angeles ss 04:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Martin -- any thoughts on cable for the first half of the London session?

SAIHAT Tsunami..tell me i am .. no thing 04:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
AUD
0.7833 0.7908 R4
0.7759 0.7796 R3
0.7712 0.7727 R2
0.7702 0.7710 R1

BUY 0.7628
Stop 0.7600

0.7623 0.7630
0.7610 0.7647

0.7517 0.7526 S1
0.7507 0.7521 S2
0.7461 0.7498 S3
0.7386 0.7461 S4


MAY WORK MAY NOT

Ltn th 04:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
BC Good afternoon.
Would you recommend reducing EURUSD holdings as it approaches 1.4 in the next 2 weeks?

Halifax CB 04:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Oh - the numbers on the bottom of the top graph are just the index of the weights, with the best fitting graph using to weight(1) and the worst fitting (number 100) using weight(100) when combining to form the green line in the bottom plot. The thing to note in the top plot is whether the first point varies significantly from the trend in the remaining weights. If it's a sharp peak, it indicates that the top fitting track is an outlier to the rest & should be more taken seriously, otherwise the green line is probably more reliable. I think....

gold coast martin 04:34 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Good afternoon

Saw the debate flare again.....alll i can say is those that choose to follow someones directions without vefifying the direction for themselves should not trade forex ...just leave money in interest bearing account..As far as posting is concerned,the people in this forum who take time to post with no arterior motives should be commended for their effort and not crucified....we are all old enough to know if anyone has motives for posting or not....if such a poster exists than ignore his motives and read his posts if they are constructive and can assist your trading habits....safe trading and looking forward to constructive and not destructive posts...
g/t

SanFrancisco Analyst 04:30 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
My current opinion, $Jpy is overbought for session trading, could well stay up here for hours and give fakes to the downside, but it is overbought for that time period. Same with EurJpy, EurChf giving first signs of positioning for a session oriented move upward but same potential for fake applies. $Chf having pulled back moderately is now flat. Eur$ is oversold on session oriented basis and not yet showing any real sign of pulling up.

Halifax CB 04:28 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
No problem valdez. I'm heading off to bed anyway...But the numbers on the top graph are the logs base 10 of the weights used (the strongest is close to 10^0 = 1; I cut them off at 10^(-8) = 0.00000001 (or there abouts). I hope to write it up later next week, if after a bit more trial I find they work, & I'll put the explanation up on the website...But thanks for the feed back, it's what I need. Just treat them though with a huge grain of salt...

shanghai bc 04:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   

I can only admire traders who can flip their positions at a drop of hat and still make money..Wish I were that agile too..Reading others' market bias is fine for me..So anyone's view is fine for me as long as they do not post their views once every minute..It does not matter to me at all if one is trading a real money or a monopoly money as long as they express their market views..All the same for me..

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB// You are one of my favorite top 10 posters. (fans applaud)..a better idea instead of ans my Q here would be to do it on the charts..explanations. Trying to save space on FF. Peace all. OMIL, as usual, tks much for your delivery of data.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:12 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB..I hate to ask what you may think are stupid questions but this is my first experience with a graph such as your skills have rendered for us. I need some X-Y axis help. On the top chart of E/$, the vertical series of numbers 0-8 in minus regression..what is that? And the numbers on the bottom 10-100..what is that too?

The bottom chart speaks for itself, even I can understand that. Thank you. Beautiful work, interesting concept the contour line channel.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:09 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
As noted before the consolidation is for the market to get ready for the next move. Bears for the eur/usd pair have not been able to take out the main support (3210-20) and the time is ticking. I feel that the pressure is against the $ for the time being politically and probably financially in the eyes of the market. The % will be for the $ weakness to continue but we shall see what the price action dictates in the next two days. The support and resistance have not changed much since the market was in consolidation mode and probably waiting for Friday’s NFP numbers to throw some wood on the fire. Here are the latest numbers that have not changed much.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3310-20, 3340-50, 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3480-90, 3520-40, 3580-3600, 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3540-50, 3460-70, 3395-3405, 3335-45 and 3260-70.
Retracement numbers are 3490-3500, 3390-3400, 3300-10, 3210-20, and 3110-20.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3415-25, 3260-70, 3140-50, 3020-30 and 2865-75 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3390-3400 and 3440-50 Support T/L 3030-40 for now.
Support is around the 3250-3280, 3210-20, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3130-3140 area IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I don’t know what the intentions are for raton but when I don’t care to read someone’s post I just skip it and go to the next one. I don’t know most of the people’s credentials here or if they are for real or not that is not my business. We are here to share the information we have if it is real or not that is up to the individuals here to decide. A lot of talk has been made about GEP not being legitimate but is that the issue here or is it the random individual attacks that I see so often on him and others. I believe to live and let live and no one should appoint themselves the saviors of others here. Let the people in a collective decide if GEP is for real or not and the ones that don’t believe him then let then read other comments and let’s try to live in peace this year. Now I will not discuss this matter again so you can delete my post if you like. GT

Hong Kong Qindex 04:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Halifax CB 04:02 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Valdez, & good point. I'l clear that up later, but for now the start time is the time of the last sample mentionned in the title (3:20). Also the last reversal time is in the title - that the time of the last completed wave on the originating pf diagram.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB..incredible work. Gracias! On the bottom chart of E/$ where does 0 (the bottom left corner) start relative to GMT now? Or is 0 indeed "now"?

Hong Kong Qindex 03:51 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
monteria,colombia juan david 03:47 GMT - It is okay if you are looking for 40 - 50 pips.

monteria,colombia juan david 03:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hong kong qindex, i think we should be bullish on gpb-us rigght now...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:47 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.8563 - 1.9213 is 1.8888. The market is now vibrating around 1.8823 - 1.8888 for the time being.

Halifax CB 03:46 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Since there's been a bit of to-and-fro today about trading systems, who's zoomin who, blah, blah, blah...I thought I'd take a little time to put up some of the newer things I'm working on. (And no, ya can't see my trade sheet because i make almost enough money at doing math (for other things) to cover my forex losses.... ;). Anyway, I've put up some plots I've found lately to be quite helpful at positioning for trades. There's six (the standard majors + 2), at part of my website that are probably valid for the next few hours or less...

Each plot is created by correlating a point & figure diagram with historical records broken ito pf series; the follow on data from the best fitting historical series are then used to create the plots.

The bottom graph is the one that counts, the dashed blue lines are the upper & lower bounds of the best pf series; the red line is an approximate average of the two; the green line is the estimate middle path created from the top 100 fitting series using weights (displayed in the top plot). The faint topological marks can be thought of indicators of the strength of a region for attracting the track. The bottom axis is in approximate hours (since pf figures are essentialy time independent...)

So far, trading off the top & bottom dashed lines seems to give decent results (I park orders nearby, with s/l's slightly outside). Unfortunatly the plots don't maintain their validity very lon, but as the procedure gets more automated over the next little while, I'll put them up more often....

Hong Kong Qindex 03:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:26 GMT January 5, 2005
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized levels in this series, namely 1.8563 and 1.9213. The neutral zone is 1.9028 - 1.9213 and the mid-point reference is 1.9121. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.8400 - 1.8433 and a projected resistant point is located at 1.9213. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.9121).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.8400* // {1.8563} - 1.8725* - 1.8888 - 1.9050* - {1.9213} // 1.9375 ...



Curve B : ... 1.8470* // {1.8563} - 1.8749 - 1.8842* - 1.8935 - 1.9028 - 1.9121 - {1.9213} // 1.9303 ...



Curve C : ... 1.8173* - 1.8303 - 1.8433 // {1.8563} - 1.8693* - 1.8823 - 1.8953 - 1.9083 - {1.9213}* // 1.9343 ...


quito_ecuador_valdez 03:39 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
It is interesting that a professional money manager would be asked to produce confidential records of his clients' accounts to satisfy some curiosity seeker on a public forum, actually expecting said professional to divulge confidential information not privy to anyone just to satisfy inquiries from virtually unknown curiosity seekers whose actual intentions could be anything one could imagine. What a hoot...I've seen it all now. Not 6 days into January and the forum returns to a Food Fight in the Animal House cafeteria. Nite all.

Mission Viejo Fxtrader4u 03:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
A gift to help you start the year off:

BUY eur/usd 1.3235, target 1.3650

SELL usd/chf 1.1731, target 1.1300

BUY AUS/USD .7622, target .7840

BUY eur/jpy 137.95, target 141.50

Strong technicals support these trades for a very good low risk/high profit trade oppportunity

monteria,colombia juan david 03:35 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
aren´t we seeing right now the january monthly low for gbp-us¿¿¿

Rockford BDR 03:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Thanks. Thats what I thought but wanted to be sure it wasnt some hip forex lingo Ive not heard yet.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Rockford BDR 03:19 GMT - Jan/04 - Jan/06

Rockford BDR 03:19 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
hong kong
4-1, 6-1 what does that mean or refer to??
Thanks

hong kong nt 03:18 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- still expect to see appearance of tweezer bottom (1.321) or morning doji unless 1.314 is lost. CHF -- expect 1.174 to cap upside...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:01 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
In terms of time 22-day cycle 4/1 - 6/1 is a period for consolidation.

monteria,colombia juan david 02:54 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
what is the market waiting to move gbp-us?????

Hong Kong Qindex 02:44 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
GBP/USD : Looking forward to see 1.8563 this week.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:40 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:59 GMT January 5, 2005
GBP/USD : A projected barrier has been established at 1.8888 - 1.8935.

monteria,colombia juan david 02:36 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
dallas isn´t this the best time to place entry orders using upper and lower limits of bollinger bands, gbp-us is making time for a really strong move....

Dallas GEP 02:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Closed GBP/USD shorts at breakeven earlier because they simply are not going anywhere presently.

Singapore Sfx 02:26 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Tks Syd

Syd 02:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Singapore Sfx must be 1.30ish GMT. been asleep just saw it

Syd 02:22 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Singapore Sfx just come on DJ. not sure

Hong Kong Qindex 02:22 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:22 GMT January 6, 2005
EUR/USD : My view is still negative this week as long as the market is trading below 1.3328. The odds are in favour of taking short position on any rallies under the weekly cycle key quantized level at 1.3328.

Singapore Sfx 02:21 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
6.2 on the richter about a couple of hours and some ago - as per http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/ussyaf.htm

Is this the one you refer to Syd ?

Syd 02:14 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Strong Earthquake Off Coast Of Indonesia's Banda Aceh

LDN 01:55 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
(Posted by GVI for LDN, try this out instead)

Dollar rally peters out despite hawkish Fed

Global-View 01:45 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
We have allowed this to play itself out and as we have told GEP, we have a standing offer to show us any confirmation to silence his critics. This offer still stands but enough of this for now and any further reference to it will be deleted.

London NR 01:41 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Some constructive posts would be nice.

Los Angeles ss 01:37 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Raton -- Enough is enough. I have found Gep's advise invaluable,and in fact have based some of my trades on his exact entry and exits and have consistently profited by it. So his advise does work for me and others. Forum is no place for insults, just take others' advise for what is may, or may not, be worth. Everyone in this forum has the privelege to offer advise, and in Gep's case, he is always patience and a gentleman about it. More than can be said for others. Nuff said?

Boca Raton 01:33 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:04 GMT January 6, 2005

Dear,

I am not looking for recognition from anyone. I am not selling anything. I am not looking for pats on the back. I am only trying to point out that this guy is full of it. I have been doing this for long enough to know. I can tell you with confidence that most of the GVI posters feel the same way as I do. I am just one of the few that points it out. Furnish a track record, I'll pay up (cause I can afford it), and I will shut the he!! up.

Sydney 01:25 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
1.95 yen surge in USD/JPY triggers bullish trend reversal by breaking December downtrend at 103.75. "A big jump like this often kicks-off a decent rally," it says, recommending buying pair on dips toward 104.00 (now at 104.85) to target 106.10 and 106.90 in next 1-2 weeks. Adds 13-day stochastic at 37% "has plenty of room to rise before becoming 'overbought'," could propel pair higher.

BNP Paribas

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:04 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
I am sorry I usually don’t say anything about these useless posts but what is it with this rat (raton) always with the negative comments. I tried to find one positive comment from this person and I could not find anything that was positive at all. I have come to believe that this rat person comes here to the forum to instigate or bring attention to it self. It probably has no other way of bringing attention to it self. There I go again wasting space and given the rat the satisfaction of the recognition but I could not help my self this time. GT

Atlanta-South 00:42 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dallas Gep//If they are on to you, why would they keep seeking adv. If once burned you should be learned. Gep keep posting.

Dallas GEP 00:32 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Remember guys USD/JPY was probably one of the best possies yesterday Short from that 105.00 area. Could make the trip long back up there. Something to watch.

Syd 00:25 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Boca Raton give it a rest

Syd 00:24 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
If the Job data is not up to scratch , dont think the Dollar will suffer because rates will still rise employment is a lagging indicator , may see a dip but dont be surprised to see it rally from there

Philadelphia Caba 00:23 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Boca Raton 00:10 GMT January 6, 2005

Just checked out archive and think you will lose your bet....

Chicago YM 00:20 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Shut up Raton, its gettign old.

Boca Raton 00:10 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Dallas, on the 4th when you took this short dollar/Swiss position, it was trading at 1.1475. Thats 200 points out of the money right now. Folks, someone who boasts about taking 20 pips here and there, and lets one ride negative 200 has to have their head (or p+l examined). This is a crock. I have fired people like this in the past who hid trade tickets, and couldn't comprehend the meaning of proper money management. Dallas, its simple and my offer still stands. Email Jay your VERIFIED track record so it can be seen, and I will give you $5,000.00. Gift, yours, have a nice day! So many people are on to you pal. My offer stands here in public.

Ldn 00:06 GMT January 6, 2005 Reply   
Currencies hurt Sodexho Alliance sales
France’s Sodexho Alliance, the world’s second-biggest catering company, reported a fall in first-quarter sales as currencies hammered growth
FT.com

 


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