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Forex Forum Archive for 01/10/2005

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Los Angeles ss 23:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
GEP -- you are correct. 00:30 GMT

Dallas GEP 23:55 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Don't want to beat this to death, but AUSSIE data is out in about 30 minutes correct???

GVI john 23:50 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
sa- FX history has been updated. Thanks for alerting me. GVI/Treasury Forum Research is available to GVI subscribers. Contact jay@global-view.com for details.

Syd 23:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Aussie appears to be a little out of favour at present , we could see quite a dip if the figures today come out worse than expected , CBA expects deficit could be as wide as A$2.7 billion, a record high (consensus A$2.4 billion). Spotlight would then swing to current account deficit woes, with particular attention on frustrated export efforts also according to Westpac Huge build-up of speculative longs continues to hang over it.

interesting chart here.
Aussie analysis and chart

nyc sa 22:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
JAY , could u please update hi.lo close ? thnx . Also what about treasurer's forum re - Valdez question yesterday -, how to access it ?

nyc sa 22:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
hello everybody ,a belated happy new year to all ,I was away not trading .

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:49 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
...and when one of the govern-ment types stepps his highly overpaid self up to the mic,,whatshegonnado? Recite Mary had a little lamb? He is going to waste tax dollars saying the most obvious and no brain thing he/she/it can. And never expect an appointee much less a politicum erectus to transend from "possiblity to actuality". (A posse ad esse) End of Latin II lesson.

Atlanta-South 22:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez--Thks for the comments. I'll take alittle rest & get back to it tonight.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:43 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Another Snow job. Look, the man was saying this how long now? Of course when the deficit (if the deficit) gets to a managable level then automatically the $ will rebound in worth. It goes without saying. So he's basically just popping out words to satisfy satisfiable ears. nuff said.

Syd 22:43 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Interesting chart on gold.LINK

Ldn 22:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Snow says strong dollar good for America--CNBC
WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Monday that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and said the Bush administration's focus was on getting economic fundamentals into good shape.

Budapest Daniel 22:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
thanks for the response Valdez.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well, this has me waiting, myself. Sorry to not give you ideas. No I have no long term possie..bobl does however and he's good. If the chart would short to 1.29 it would tell us that the mother support line was reached and that we could happily long again for some time without getting ourselves in trouble. but it hasn't. It is expected to short tonite or tomorrow to 1.29ish. I have no position because of the squirrelly way it's been acting and I have no cash flow data to go on. I'd pay attention to Goldcoast martin and just becasuse he didn't nail it today (I stopped out too and it cost me some bucks but that's my fault and I should have stayed in to tp on at least something) then don't mistrust him.

What makes a big diff between chartists like me (a dime a dozen around here) and folks like martin is he has a very good handle on cash flows in and out and fund actions/intentions. I don't care who chastizes him here...he's a good man and knows his stuff...more than I for sure.

So..that's my take..sorry I can't give us a tgt and a stop..back to the lab to work on my time machine. Tks amigos

Syd 22:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Australian Dollar May Decline on View Trade Balance to Widen
LINK

Budapest Daniel 22:23 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez, do you have longer term positions on eur/usd?

Atlanta-South 22:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez//OK your the EURO man, whats it going to be. Short, Long, are we all going wrong? I'm of the 1.3800 group in the med term, but near term more correction down for EURO before we take the train up again. Then again I'm still learning after 3 yrs so this could ALL BE WRONG. I respect & enjoy your vast knowledge of the beast we trade. Thks My Friend.

Chicago Irish 22:10 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
AKA.....death by a thousand cuts.....

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
false alarm..one more story in the life of euro.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
euro on a fast short

London NR 21:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
"The Globe" Baker st opposite Baker st tube stn.

London Jon 21:46 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
d - cheers, thanks for your help

london d 21:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Jon- try corney and barrows anyone of them around bishopsgate, leadenhall, jamies in bishopsgate, fishmarket near liverpool street, etc

London Jon 21:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Anybody know of any popular pubs/bars etc.. where currency traders hangout in the evenings, I need to do some networking!!
Cheers

Jon

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
check $/Y

Syd 21:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez cheers ..

London. 21:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FRANKFURT : The European Central Bank, which booked a 2003 loss of 477 million euros (625 million dollars), saw its net loss widen to at least one billion euros last year as a result of the weak dollar, according to the Handelsblatt business daily.
If the numbers are correct, it would be the third annual loss posted by the guardian of the euro in the first few years of its existence. The wider loss in 2004 was largely due to the fall in the value of the dollar, since around three quarters of the ECB's foreign currency holdings are denominated in dollars. Last year, the euro rose by 16 percent against the dollar, representing an increase of more than 60 percent compared with the historic lows it posted in autumn of 2000.
As a result, the ECB was compelled to make 1.6 billion euros' worth of writedowns against its dollar holdings, Handelsblatt reported. Another factor was the low level of interest rates around the world, which knocked around 700 million euros off the ECB's net interest income, the newspaper continued.
The ECB declined to comment on the information. It might provide a preliminary estimate of its 2004 earnings when it hold its regular monthly policy-setting meeting on Thursday.
Already last week, the Bundesbank said that its annual profit had been whittled down to next to nothing as a result of the sharp fall in the value of the dollar. - AFP

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Syd
Hint: if you put the following title code into the link body..before the first > it will pop up a wee window with text in it like a description of the link.
title="put description here"
skip a space before you insert that, then end the front part of the link as usual with the usual >

If you ALSO put target="_blank" in the link code (skip a space before you insert that) it will pop your link up in another window so you don't leave GV. Slick? No?

Syd 21:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
US Snow: Aim Is To Bring US Deficit Below 2% Of GDP

Valdez I was sure I had , but obviously forgot :-(

Budapest Daniel 21:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez, no need for blaming yourself, I'd rather blame the developer of this site for this. Well it is just a small error.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I felt pretty stupid when I made the whole page italic once..really obvious who did it too..like a finger pointing (not the index one either LOL)

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Syd, you forgot to put the end on the link code..the /a dealie. Not to worry, happens to the best of us..or perhaps you forgot the > sign

Syd 21:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
May be better to viewLINK

Syd 21:11 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Sh.it. god knows how i did it

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Nice decoration Syd! I did that too once..now the joke's on you...LOL

Ldn 20:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   

NZDUSD still looks ugly as long as it stays below about 7000. 6820 may be the next target lower

Alicante RTN 20:14 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
usdjpy: 104.07 was just hit and this is the 38.2% fibo retracement of the latest upmove (dec 31/jan 06)

Dallas GEP 20:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hit profit target on 2nd half of usd/cad longs and I am out now.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:12 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Brussles ML// If you are still online, I searched the archives and your post about the newsfeed can not be found under your handle. Could you give it to me again please..sorry to bug you.

GOES B747 20:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
just heard that today's action in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY had one aim, to make EUR/USD go down as soon 'sons' will go back to work ... anyone share this view?

gt

london, herts jr 20:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
can anyone tell me time of aussie trades please?

smz paul 19:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
eurusd up or down?

San Diego DC 19:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BELFAST Brainstorm

Re: EUR/$
Yes, would love to hear from you when it gets there. Yes, I am a technical trader. I will also post it when it gets there in my book.

gold coast martin 19:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
fwiw....Previously posted resistance on aud of 7612(which held for all of 3 full sessions)..still applies forthe upcoming aussie session....

Bahrain within 10 pips 19:43 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
aussie for that Time
0.7614 0.7534

Auckland 19:35 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
In 4 hours we have got Aussie trade balance. My personal felling- just little bit shaking we gona see and that's it (I don't have any data)
GT/GL

gold coast martin 19:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
13021=13122.......gold coast martin 19:02 GMT January 10, 2005

Dallas GEP 19:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
The 136.20/25 area is fairly strong support on EUR/JPY...usd/jpy's fate is tied to eur/jpy here. Usd/jpy is on support also so we should get a bounce up

NY jmb 19:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Crude tanking now down on the day.

Zurich Picasso 19:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Agree on usd/jpy.
Btw its exactly on 50 day MA now. Should bounce...

San Diego bobl 19:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
oops...that becomes clear with target and stops...
ty

San Diego bobl 19:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin...
yen longs=usd/yen long? correct?

gold coast martin 19:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shes=shed

Bahrain within 10 pips 19:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Cad will take nice hammaring

gold coast martin 19:07 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...any yen longs at 10420 to 10397 are very vry godd levels....with major resistance at 10361 a target of 105+ within 2 days offers very good risk/reward ratio...g/t

gold coast martin 19:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW..leaving all short positions open until tomorrow with same targets as per my first post of of today....and taking an additional yen long @10412 with stop at 10376....target 10517....
..with euro still retaining hangover from friday and despite attempts to shake it of ,the lack of follow through to challenge 13150 level still leaves it in a punch drunk state with plenty of opportunity to be taken advantage of!!!!!..also with japan back tomorrow the impetus in the yen should be more sustained ...Hence the decision to leave all shorts and yen longs open overnight for another shot at my previously posted targets..
As far as anything positive to come from todays dull day ,it was only my posted "early retacement level of 13098" on the euro that materialised and also the support level of 13021 which has put a lid on the euro..although it was breached by 3 pips...it wil continue to be effective until todays close....this was good for a few pip raids up and down the ....g.t and trade safe....
Worth a mention is that with the aussie trade figures due to be released in aussie session and are expected to be on the wrong side of expectations we could see aussie shes 60-70 pips in an instant...g/l

beirut jb 18:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:44 GMT

HI Gep, I m with u and will long it at 10403, but be careful tomorrow leading indicators in japan

GL GT

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Yen looks really good Dallas...

BELFAST Brainstorm 18:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SAN DIEGO DC i can tell you were this swing higher will stop when it happens i,ll post it and you can see if im right so keep an eye out for it .We were both right about the swing higher taking place are you technical trader or what ...

Dallas GEP 18:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy at market....target 104.60

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I Just did Long it...Maybe 1.3820 if held more then a day

Dallas GEP 18:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Could be Bahrain, I would be more inclined tho to long usd/jpy...more stable

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Dallas..
I think longing it for 100 points is good from here

Dallas GEP 18:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Actually BAHRAIN since 3080 euro is holding for now I agree...Out at 136.40 +3

Philadelphia Caba 18:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Closed my yesterday's eurchf short at b/e. Can get better level I think.

Bahrain within 10 pips 18:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:04 GMT January 10, 2005
shorted e/y @ 136.43 a couple of minutes ago///
e/y looks strong here

Atlanta-South 18:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Halifax CB//Me too. I think we will soon see. Keeping a close watch on this situation. Also, I enjoy your POST & your other site & the info it provides. GL GT

Gen dk 18:19 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

San Diego bobl 18:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Halifax...
thank you again...I am looking at your material now.

orlando jcr 18:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shorted E$ from 1.3114 at noon (ish) EST while getting on plane... As per today's pattern set up stop/limit at 10pip and for a rarity actually paid out while flying (my record on trades while flying is not great).

Looks like Euro may be getting rising support at 1.3080 for today - althought I'd rather see it break that to keep chop-chop going for the day. Channel may be closing as 1.3120 has held the top.

Alicante RTN 18:14 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
The support in eurusd at 1.3075/85 looks like its being eroded. Won't survive another good test. Eurchf is under upwards pressure as usdchf is not hitting similar resistance.

Gen dk 18:12 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 18:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
NOTE: eur/jpy SHORT does have the potential to spring back violently your stop accordingly.

Halifax CB 18:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
No problem bobl - I appreciate your approach which is definitely more measured - and probably more effective - than mine :) FWIW, I have put the excel spread sheet I used in working this out on my site, the explanation is at the the bottom of this page, if anyone else would like to download it & play with it.

Atlanta-South 18:06 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman//Certainly keep posting. Your results are speaking for themselves. I feel your calls are being followed & probably even TRADED. Your on the mark calls will surely attract attention. I for one enjoy you as well as other post. KEEP CALLING THEM MY FRIEND. As one other said your method to the madness would be a GOOD TOPIC.

Dallas GEP 18:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shorted e/y @ 136.43 a couple of minutes ago

Gen dk 18:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
chf 1.1860 are OK short for a day

Halifax CB 17:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Atlanta-South - I hope it doesn't turn into one of those misery-loves-company things...lol..

San Diego bobl 17:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Halifax...
ty...appreciate your clarification;

Personally, still on sidelines; trading below weekly and daily pivotal areas keeps pressure on eur and cable and the longer we don't see a more meaningful bounce the more likely we will follow through. However, I am still looking for more conviction to take a position.

Amman wfakhoury 17:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD will rise this hour buy @ 1.3082

Atlanta-South 17:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Halifx//I'm with u. short from 1.3107 & 1.3001. We could be wrong. Time will tell.

Atlanta-South 17:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman// Good calls. Using CHARTS I assume?

Halifax CB 17:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BTW, its the sample size ( the data on which the analysis is built) that's disgustingly small. There's only a handful of similar events on the euro of a comparative drop in the recent past with which to compare the present situation, and drawing conclusions from that group is risky at best. Sorry about the spelling.

Dallas GEP 17:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Closed 1/2 cad longs for profit rest are at breakeven on trailing stop.

Halifax CB 17:49 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
No, we are well above Friday's close, you have to add that difference to the expected low, and subtract it from the stop loss point. I had hoped to get to 1.3150 before getting in, but we didn't today (at least not yet.) Ball parking the values (potential TP ~ 1.29, Sl ~ 1.33, gives an even split entry at 1.31.

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:46 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
cad more short at 1.2230

San Diego bobl 17:39 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Halifax...
not sure how discustingly small position turns into serious bucks against?? Do you feel there is 150 pips downside for a risk of 250 pips? Please clarify...as you posted, understanding the reasoning behind positions is as valuable if not more than just the position itself...
tyia

Amman wfakhoury 17:39 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Ok then
i posted 3 signals for today..all gained btn 10-20 pips..i hope you get use of these signals

Los Angeles ss 17:35 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thanks 10 pips.

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
1.1939 1.0580
chf

SS most likely heading to 1.8660 from here

Halifax CB 17:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW, I've started building a position short Eurusd. This is based oon the analysis of the 4 week rule results; I estimate that there's on the order of 150 pips potential below Friday's close before hitting 250 pips above that close. Alas the sample size is discustingly small, so I might be out some serious bucks sooner than expected. But I'm just going to put it on the back burner & let it cook for a week or two. GL/GT

bkk cad 17:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
hmmm...guess I'll hold onto my short euro for now.
Night All ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Los Angeles ss 17:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
10 pips -- my short term is about 8 hours! Any thoughts there?

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Cable
1.9860 1.8548

Dallas GEP 17:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Longed usd/cad at market....target 1.2330

Eilat Dolphin 17:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
RTN/ Hi! A bounce you can have, even + 60 ps by tomorrow, but that the most; TA 30 is more in the cards, and I see the USCAD bleeding to continue to tomorrow, imho.

Unless you'd expect a turnaround...

Dallas Mauricio 17:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Wait until Wednesday.

Los Angeles ss 17:25 GMT January 10, 2005
Isn't some fed manager supposed to be speaking now? Anyone with any ideans on cable in the short term?


Dallas Mauricio 17:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Chop, chop, chop...

Los Angeles ss 17:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Isn't some fed manager supposed to be speaking now? Anyone with any ideans on cable in the short term?

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
0.8430 0.7533
Aussie

Halifax CB 17:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman; certainly put them up - but they would be of more interest - and generate more response - if you discussed how you arrive at them. Personally I just ignore any calls unless there is some evidence of reasoning behind the call, because I am here as much to learn about techniques as anything else....

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:23 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Cad Daily Levels
1.2392 1.0752
Just came from the 1.2392...so going to 1.075 (If One can hold til then)

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:19 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
sold more cad at mkt here

bkk cad 17:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BUT the daily is dominant of the hourly and euro/stg and euro/yen will keep the lid on the euro until stops taken under 1.30 imho, so 'I' myself would not rish buying into euro, but selling when she turns for 1.30 is safer. AND the USD index had a bullish candle yesterday, euro will begin to fall within the next 24 hours...tick tock tick tock

Dallas GEP 17:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
wfak....the more input the better....keep posting

Budapest Daniel 17:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman keep up posted about your levels as well... I think it is very well apperciated despite the fact it does not receive any response...

Eilat Dolphin 17:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury/ I read them with interest.

Bahrain within 10 pips 17:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
cad heading to 1.1820

Amman wfakhoury 17:10 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Anyone intrested in my signals
anyone following them
as if noone intrested.. i may stop them

Alicante RTN 17:07 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
usdcad just touched the 50% fibo retracement level of 1.2182 for the latest upmove (1.1972 on dec/31 to 1.2392 on jan/06). If we get a decent bounce, this may be signifcant.

Cairo Amgad 17:06 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Good evening friends,
I have not trade a nickle since monday opening but my view:
Short(Sell) Eur/Usd at 1.3134
stop and reverse at 1.3183
Target 1.2968.

GL GT

bkk cad 17:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
euro/cad is having a selling climax

bkk cad 16:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
About 20 hours ago a small gap was make on the hourly, so Euro will probably head to 1.3130 for a test, but as for my short position, in the next 15 minutes the price should go back to 1.31 where I will get out will 3 pips profit.
I'd rather try and short euro around 1.32 area

monteria,colombia juan david 16:46 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
bkk, got out of my short position on euro with 1 pip profit since i don't see anymore downside action, what do you think?

San Diego bobl 16:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Still seeing irregular trades however not seeing any follow-through conviction. Much too sloppy for me, so am still on the sidelines. Market seems to be requesting more time for any directional decision.

monteria,colombia juan david 16:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
dallas, sure i studied my career at medellin, monteria is located at the north part of colombia, about an 8 hours drive from medellin.

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
1.8757/59 good short level on GBP

Dallas Mauricio 16:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
monteria,colombia, My mother is from Medellin (Rio Negro), where is Monteria?

bkk cad 16:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Me too! short euro at 1.3106

Still short eur/cad from 1.6084 and on target for 1.57
(+ there is a gap behind it on the DLY too :)

monteria,colombia juan david 16:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
orlando, short it euro at 1.3110

orlando jcr 16:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Delta crown room in Orlando

monteria,colombia juan david 16:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
orlando where are you rightnow at the airport?

smz paul 16:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
thanx Orlando
wishing you a save flight

orlando jcr 16:23 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Paul,

Because of choppiness, I'm moving on touches to the BB on the five minute chart (or just outside)...

I've had two shorts from the 1.3120 area and a nice long from the 1.3078 mark. Each for 15+pip. I've done a few for 0-8PIP also. There were two for -PIP (4 & 7).

Have to get on the plane now, but tempted to short now for 10 pip, but probably won't because I lose 75% of the time I do that when logging off to travel. Hope it continues into tonight for when I'm back on.

monteria,colombia juan david 16:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
thanks for your comments orlando, i think i'll wait for those prices to short it too.

London Iain 16:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain within 10 pips 16:15 GMT January 10, 2005

of exactly the same opinion. long cable as well as older cable longs from friday around 1.3065 (not near the low, but happy enough just now). stop at 1.3040 for 1.3270 minimum. trail it higher if it goes.

Eilat Dolphin 16:19 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
jcr/ I begin to doubt that it'll be offered that high...

GOES B747 16:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain within 10 pips 16:15 GMT // imo, better to put s/l @ 1.8478

gt

smz paul 16:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Orlando,
I am even worse technician than you. What indicators and time range do you use for those 10-15 moves?
I've had only one 15 pip catch today.
thanx

orlando jcr 16:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Juan,

I'm jumping on a plane, so I'm flat right now, but I would probably re-short around 1.3110-1.3120 for another 15-20 pip expectation. I think it will be choppy all day.

Bahrain within 10 pips 16:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
More long term now friends...
Cable Long there and PT at 1.92 with a stop at 1.8550 and Trail with 60 pips
Two weeks from now You will be a happy trader

Eilat Dolphin 16:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
In a while, again, probably.

monteria,colombia juan david 16:12 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
anyone shorting euro?

orlando jcr 15:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I'm probably completely wrong on this, but here's my thoughts....

I think we'll be choppy trading on E$ all day with a high somewhere around 1.3022(25) which we've already seen and a low of 1.3050 (or maybe 1.3028).

The chops are nice enough to make 10-15PIP in each direction as I have made several of these since yesteray open - after a fairly slow start in Asia.

...Again, I'm not the greatest technician on this (martin, GEP, quito, et al would be much better) but that is just my feel. I've made my low target for todays trades and hoping to hit my high with this plan - unless of course I'm wrong.

Bahrain within 10 pips 15:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Euro shorters better tighten Your seat belts with some SL
Very dangerous
1.3050 ???

San Diego bobl 15:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Starting to see some prints outside the box to upside in euro...not convincing by any means, but somebody paying up

Bahrain within 10 pips 15:42 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:30 GMT January 10, 2005
1.8640.. on what platform ?

Very special One!!...LOL
GT

Surabaya Medallion 15:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Yes, And AUD short at 0.762? The high is only at 0.7607 as far as I can see.

Surabaya Medallion 15:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Yes, And AUD short at 0.722? The high is only at 0.7607 as far as I can see.

Mtl JP 15:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
1.8640.. on what platform ?

Bahrain within 10 pips 15:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Longing Cable 1.8640 for 1.8791

NoVa Lurker 15:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Each of these small, sharp spikes up in EURUSD in the past hour have faded very quickly. It looks as though offers are being pulled near the lows of the range allowing spec interests to run prices higher . On we go +13100 those sellers reappear.

Philadelphia Caba 15:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
IFR: EUR/USD We are hearing reports that a 1 year exotic Double Touch option, with a base trigger located sub-1.2000, and a topside trigger set above 1.4500, has traded in very good size. The payout on the option is approximately two-and-a-half times the premium staked. 1.4500 is a synthetic approximation to the lifetime USD/DEM low of 1.3460 plumbed in January 1995.

Gen dk 15:07 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

San Diego bobl 15:07 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well...the good news is that the longer the market stays in narrow choppy range, the greater the possibility of a good move in resolution. To state the obvious, narrow ranges represent a battle of bulls and bears. Once one side gets the upper hand, the capitualation of the other side gets a more meaty move going.

Trade figures appear to getting some play in here but I still don't see a winner as of yet...no trades.

Amman wfakhoury 15:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
It is already obtained till now

Amman wfakhoury 15:03 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bkk david
I am working on 10-15 pips each hour

gold coast martin 15:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
bkk david 14:59 GMT January 10, 2005
Thanks for that.....

bkk david 14:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
amman
gold coast

If eurusd below than 1.3085, it should test 1.3030-50 again

bkk david 14:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
amman
nt hong kong
I closed short eurusd position because now signal of EL wave change to buy favour

Amman wfakhoury 14:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bkk
sl 30 pips +

San Diego bobl 14:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
A whole bunch of nothing out there so far as I can see thus far today. I certainly do not see any conviction in the trade today and therefore am flat. I am leaning to the long side of eur/usd and cable however have not received trigger from system as of yet. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

bkk david 14:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:21 GMT January 10, 2005
what is your stop eurusd short ?

If eurusd break above 1.3130, it should go 1.3190


bkk david 14:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
i short eurusd at 1.3101 stop 1.3128.
Today usd should come back again.
Today sp500 will be negative more , this should benefit
usd rebound.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I'm going to have to sign off, I am contributing nothing and making nothing..been nice fellas..

gold coast martin 14:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BKK..Well from my point of view i am trading my direction from this morningstargets meaning that i have shorts from the 13098 level all the way to the 13118 level....thats me though...if you are comfortable with it and your system agrees with the direction..yes..if in doubt ..stay neutral...g/t

Tallinn viies 14:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
as someone mentioned earlier 1,3050 expiry today.
let see how attractive it is :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gawd, here come the questions to poor marty..tries to help us now he's being handed the FX microphone..Glad I am in the dunce corder

Amman wfakhoury 14:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
MY new signal
EUR/USD sell @ 1.3105

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well Dolph, your English is 10,000% better than my Frances. Oui?

bkk david 14:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
stop out at 1.3122 eurusd.
Should i short eurusd now more ?

Eilat Dolphin 14:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
martin/ Excellent. Poor Trichet! That name may stick... Oh l Credit Lyonnais...

Eilat Dolphin 14:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Thanks, (but I had to check "levity" in le dictionaire)

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trichet-ous lol you guys are a hoot

gold coast martin 14:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 13:59 GMT January 10, 2005
lol...At least the TRICHE-ROUS SNAKE has got no venim...even with its head still intact,,, ..g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
If the chart doesn't lower itself from present value it's still basically a longing chart..all longs have to stop sometime tho. Great wording Dolph, your wit and levity are welcomed!

San Diego bobl 14:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW...here are some levels that I consider important for the week;

eur/usd...1.3247
usd/jpy...104.0867
gbp/usd...1.8903

These numbers are mathmatically based and represent longer term "change" points. Often these levels attrack the trade within the week. I am watching the next hour closes to take positions for day. Obviously, markets very mixed today which characterizes a trade potentially in transition.

Eilat Dolphin 13:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Beware, even with its head cut, the Treatcherous Snake can still bite.

Only once, that is.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
there the wicked beast rears its ugly head

Bahrain within 10 pips 13:55 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
aus .7613 shorting there for a day

Eilat Dolphin 13:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
A good, very long time friend of mine who does not feel like trading fx himself, asks my opinion about F.X.M. Forex Kapital Mamagement.

I'll mucho mucho appreciate feedback, as I know them not.

San Diego bobl 13:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gm everyone and best wishes/gt to all...
I just got in so have not completed morning run yet, however, first system stats very neutral; long weekend.

quito_ecuador_valdez ...
I have business out of town and have not had to the opportunity to review email etc. yet this morning; I'll get back to you soon.

Bahrain within 10 pips 13:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
.7620 aus short...if You like a day trade

gold coast martin 13:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:37 GMT January 10, 2005
No problem at all .... different posts are simply to cross check your own system positions for verification and see what may be something that another trader sees that you dont at the time....and if in doubt..stay out...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:41 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Prob was marty, it was either stay up 26 hours or sleep for tosay's run. Had I a robot I think I would have collected that long. Darned time zones you know! LOL

Antwerp Tom 13:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hello friends, wish everybody a happy, healthy and prosperous 2005 and no fights on the FF, let's keep it civilized.

Valdez, ask your dentist for a special mouthpiece against teeth grinding, i got one...LOL.

Viies, congrats on your amazing performance last Friday, quite impressive, keep posting.

GL GT to all

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
No prob Marty..I realize that of course..at the time it looked too up down for me and I chickened out. You posted, I didn't take it..my fault.

gold coast martin 13:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
MJ RT.....10428 on mine....in any case,,,,,,plus or minus 5-8 pips below posted resistance ...as long as it gets a consistent bounce from there....and it has been...all day ...so far...g/t

Tallinn viies 13:35 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
sold more euros at 1,3105. because hourly stochastic crossed lower from overbought levels....

NJ RT 13:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:20 GMT January 10, 2005
On my charts ....it broke 104.27 ...went to 104.23 ....

gold coast martin 13:32 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:28 GMT January 10, 2005
LOL....you would have done well if you played the "early retacement method" to 13098 from 1355 that was mentioned in first post of todays trading...a long first and then a short....we have completed phase one ...so now for phase 2 which is the target.....imho..of course....g/t

Toronto YV 13:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
The value of building permits surged to their second highest level on record in November in the wake of strong gains in the non-residential sector and continuing growth in the residential sector. Municipalities issued $5.0 billion in permits, up 9.3% from October.
StatCanada.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I'm with ya marty...it's painful but I'm in your saddle. LOL. I exited flat..maybe we will see a 1.3120, this teeth grinding is making me tense.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
This sure is a sloooooooooow short...

gold coast martin 13:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
NJ RT 13:16 GMT January 10, 2005
Post of this morning still applies..13122res.level still holding....the longer that holds and the longer yen does not drop below 10427 res.level..the ny session will bring us the targets that i have mentioned in my first post today......g/t

Auckland 13:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin If curency is going too much up and down they are taking too much alcohol or drugs and forgeting what to say...
tomorow on reuters we will read some empty stories about intervention...

NJ RT 13:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin Martin, what's your view on eurusd lately. Thank you

Auckland 13:12 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain You were short CAD but it smells as the end...
GL/GT

Eilat Dolphin 13:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Aukland/ When investors will catch up with Trichet sentence "investors risk appetite is still high", it will show on the charts.

Well, may be it already does.

Bahrain within 10 pips 13:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Cable is Buy
Will long soon

Auckland 13:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
On Viking chart today's high 1,3117...
20-30 pips missing; my top was 3150/55
does market coming back to pick up new top?

Budapest Daniel 13:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
thanks Auckland for the details

gold coast martin 12:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
...... "If you shouw me yours I'll show you mine" bit....lol....Eilat,it does apply to forex as well.......depends what you show....!!g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
tks Auckland..putting together a correlation between fundamentalists, chartists and people like martin who have flow info as well as charts and fundamentals.

NoVa Lurker 12:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 12:47 GMT

You have it correct IMO. Basically what passes for order flows is not more in most cases than desk to desk chatter that in large part is passed along to services such as IFR, MNI, etc and from experience some of it is simply talking one's book.

Auckland 12:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:36 GMT January 10, 2005
Just charts...sorry for late reply...

Auckland 12:48 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel it's all in here
10-Jan-2005 07:00 Current AccountGermany Nov 6.9B
10-Jan-2005 08:00 G-10 Central Bank Governors Meet in BaselEU
10-Jan-2005 08:00 Unemployment RateCzech Republic Dec 10.3% 9.9%
10-Jan-2005 09:00 CPI - MoMNorway Dec 0.0%
10-Jan-2005 09:30 PPI Input / Output - MoMUK Dec -1.9% / 0.1%
10-Jan-2005 09:30 ODPM House Prices - YoYUK Nov 12.6%
10-Jan-2005 13:30 Building Permits - MoMCanada Nov 0.0% 2.0%
10-Jan-2005 15:00 Wholesale InventoriesUS Nov 0.8% 1.1%
10-Jan-2005 17:00 Fed's Guynn speaks on outlook for US EconomyUS
10-Jan-2005 18:00 BRC Retail Sales MonitorUK
10-Jan-2005 23:50 Official Reserve AssetsJapan Dec $840.1B
11-Jan-2005 00:30 Trade BalanceAustralia Nov -2238M
11-Jan-2005 00:30 National Australia Bank December Business SurveyAustralia
11-Jan-2005 05:00 Leading Economic / Coincident IndexJapan Nov P 18.2% / 10.0%
11-Jan-2005 07:45 Trade BalanceFrance Nov -2068M
11-Jan-2005 07:50 Industrial Production / Output - MoMFrance Nov -0.7% / 1.8%
11-Jan-2005 08:00 Trade BalanceHungary Nov -250.0M -390.0M
11-Jan-2005 08:00 Industrial Output/Sales - YoYCzech Republic Nov 13.0% / 11.5% 8.1% / 6.6%
11-Jan-2005 08:15 Adjusted Real Retail Sales - YoYSwitzerland Nov 0.5%
11-Jan-2005 10:00 Zew Survey of Economic SentimentGermany Jan 13.9
11-Jan-2005 11:00 Industrial Production - MoMGermany Nov P 0.5%
11-Jan-2005 13:15 Housing StartsCanada Dec 230.0K 238.2K
11-Jan-2005 13:30 SNB's Hildebrand, ECB's Issing Hold Speech in ZurichSwitzerland
11-Jan-2005 23:30 ABC Weekly Consumer ConfidenceUS Jan 9 -9
11-Jan-2005 23:30 Westpac Consumer ConfidenceAustralia Jan
12-Jan-2005 00:30 Job VacanciesAustralia Nov -11.0%
12-Jan-2005 06:00 Machine Tool Orders - YoYJapan Dec P 48.4%
12-Jan-2005 09:30 Visible Trade BalanceUK Nov -5300M
12-Jan-2005 10:00 European Commission Publishes Q4 and Q1 GDP ForecastsEU
12-Jan-2005 12:00 Industrial Production / Orders - MoMSweden Nov -0.6% / -1.0% 1.0% / 2.7%
12-Jan-2005 13:30 Trade BalanceUS Nov -$53.4B -$55.5B
12-Jan-2005 13:30 New Housing Price Index - MoMCanada Nov 0.2%
12-Jan-2005 13:30 International Merchandise TradeCanada Nov C$4.6 C$4.4
12-Jan-2005 15:30 Leading Indicator Index - MoMUK Nov 0.3%
12-Jan-2005 15:30 DOE/API Weekly Crude Oil InventoriesUS Jan 7
12-Jan-2005 19:00 Monthly Budget StatementUS Dec -$12.5B -$17.6B
12-Jan-2005 21:45 Building Permites - MoMNew Zealand Nov 11.2%
12-Jan-2005 23:50 Current Account TotalJapan Nov 1195.0B 1336.7B
13-Jan-2005 00:30 Unemployment RateAustralia Dec 5.3% 5.2%
13-Jan-2005 00:30 Employment ChangeAustralia Dec 3.50 24.50
13-Jan-2005 00:30 Participation RateAustralia Dec 63.7% 63.7%
13-Jan-2005 07:45 Consumer Price IndexFrance Dec 0.1% 0.0%
13-Jan-2005 09:00 CPI - Headline Rate - MoMSweden Dec 0.0% -0.6%
13-Jan-2005 09:30 Total New Construction OrdersUK Nov 2435
13-Jan-2005 09:30 Industrial/Manufacturing Production - MoMUK Nov 0.4% / 0.3% -0.1% / -0.1%
13-Jan-2005 12:00 BOE Announces RatesUK 4.75% 4.75%
13-Jan-2005 12:45 ECB Announces RatesEU 2.00% 2.00%
13-Jan-2005 13:30 ECB's Trichet Holds Press ConferenceEU
13-Jan-2005 13:30 NIESR GDP EstimateUK Dec 0.4%
13-Jan-2005 13:30 Import Price Index - MoMUS Dec -0.2% 0.2%
13-Jan-2005 13:30 Advance Retail Sales / Less AutosUS Dec 1.0% / 0.4% 0.1% / 0.5%
13-Jan-2005 13:30 Weekly Initial Jobless ClaimsUS Jan 8 335K 364K
13-Jan-2005 15:30 EIA Weekly Natural Gas StorageUS Jan 7 -151
13-Jan-2005 17:50 Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor SpeaksCanada
13-Jan-2005 23:00 Fed's Poole SpeaksUS
13-Jan-2005 23:50 Domestic CGPI - MoMJapan Dec 0.0% 0.1%
14-Jan-2005 05:00 Machine Orders - MoMJapan Nov 3.3% -3.1%
14-Jan-2005 07:00 Eco Watchers Survey - Current / OutlookJapan Dec 45.3 / 45.8
14-Jan-2005 13:30 Producer Price Index - MoMUS Dec -0.1% 0.5%
14-Jan-2005 13:30 Producer Price Index - Ex Food and Energy - MoMUS Dec 0.2% 0.2%
14-Jan-2005 13:30 Business InventoriesUS Nov 0.6% 0.2%
14-Jan-2005 14:15 Capacity UtilizationUS Dec 78.9% 78.7%
14-Jan-2005 14:15 Industrial ProductionUS Dec 0.5% 0.2%

Eilat Dolphin 12:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Sometimes the Vikingbank gives a hint of which bank is selling on buying what, sedlom with quantities though, and even more rare that thei intervention will change a thing besides telling you that those Big Banks make the same mistakes we do...

Besides that I trust that no one has flows besides his own, or buddies here and there phoning each other with the "If you shouw me yours I'll show you mine" bit.

Budapest Daniel 12:43 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thanks ss for the info... What I saw on my 4cast calendar is the wholesale inventories at 15:00 pm gmt only for today's US data ...

Auckland 12:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trichet just saysg-10 sees "global" growth of around 4% for 2005...
Global growth or inflation...

Los Angeles ss 12:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
That is 2200 gmt I believe.

Los Angeles ss 12:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Daniel -- the only speech I know of is Snow's at the Nasdaq close today,2100 GMT.

Eilat Dolphin 12:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trichet says " investors risk appetites still high."
Imo, that diplomatic language signifies $ too low...

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Auckland// are you charting or have money flow info? Just curious. TIA for encouragement!! ;^>

Tallinn viies 12:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
prague viktor 12:30 GMT - two levels today I exclude 1,2845 and 1,3245.
so, yes we can see 1,2880 but probably tommorow not today

Auckland 12:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito it's coming...

Budapest Daniel 12:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
When will this speech take place guys? Is it the wholesale inventories today at 15.00 PM GMT?

prague viktor 12:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies..are u looking to 1,288 too or its too much tia

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I sure hope so Aukland, waiting for the support base to appear is slower than normal. And irritating. The only ones who are making any money are lucky ones who just happened to bet right and the platfroms.

Tallinn viies 12:27 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Auckland 12:25 GMT - exactly.

Auckland 12:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies As per Friday experience after speech (today Fed's Guynn) currency might move another 200 pips. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1,29 ish in next 24 hours
GL/GT..

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
viis..and a lot of worrysome up down as well..irritating chart.

Tallinn viies 12:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
5 hours hard work and euro was able to crawl 20 ticks.
come on, doesnt it look obvious.
for trading day hilo difference 65 ticks which is clearly too little. I think NYC will help us to widden it up. and of course in my view downside is fovoured direction to get it wider...
imho

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:03 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thankyou SAIHAT. :^)

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 12:00 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez

chart

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SAIHAT// Not meant to be intimidating..just want to know...TIA friend.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Saihat// Do you get your calls from charting or from knowing ACUTAL money flow? TIA...

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:49 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
lots of updown on the way down..

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 11:48 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
still valid

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 08:17 GMT January 10, 2005
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 05:12 GMT January 8, 2005
EUR

BUY AT MARKET 1.3050

STOP 60 PIPS

TARGET 1.3220-1.3270

MAY WORK MAY NOT

Gen dk 11:35 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland 11:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Good day to all...
Good trade and good luck...

gold coast martin 11:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BKK Refer to: gold coast martin 21:39 GMT January 9, 2005..

bkk david 11:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
goldcoast
what is your profit target of eurusd ?

gold coast martin 11:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Athens 11:20 GMT January 10, 2005
Good trades Adam.... the january chop chop phase is with us..lol.....

Athens 11:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Good luck Martin and everyone here. 2005 should prove a very interesting year.

gold coast martin 11:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BKK....my euro short of 13889 has a stop of 13122.........

San Diego DC 11:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
bkk david ,

I am not day trading. What I posted was for trading on a daily basis (short-term)

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Yea, me 2 marty..got my britches all bunched up here..LOL Thanks for the call. Let's make some money now.

bkk david 11:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast
what is stop of eurusd fo short ?

gold coast martin 11:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
QUITO....Resistance of 13122....sorry...i would be worried if it was support if i am targeting 12936.....lol...

Los Angeles ss 11:11 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Martin, working on a short right now.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:10 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
marty, am I reading things wrong..you said support at 1.3122 and reisitance at 1.3122..which is it?

gold coast martin 11:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SS....Refer to: gold coast martin 21:39 GMT January 9, 2005

bkk david 11:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
sandiago
I think like you eurusd and gbpusd should rebound for last 4 hours.
but now I prefer waiting for next 3 hours before judge new one again

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 21:39 GMT January 9, 2005
Early shallow euro retracement at the opening of the market on Monday will push euro up from closing levels of 13054 to 13098...with resistance at 13122.…when 13085-90 seen it will be a good entry level to short euro with a target of 13028..if 13028 target seen and breached the 12936 level will be seen..

Los Angeles ss 11:05 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Martin, could you please post your levels again? Can't seem to locate them. TIA

San Diego DC 11:05 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR/$:

Many people's analysis that the down move is not over, while that is true IMHO, at this moment EUR/$ is long for short-term position trading.. Sometimes we read the tape action (intentions of the composite operarator) properly, but get influenced into following other people's posts just because they were right one week. Take back your power to read charts, you have everyhting you need to trade on the right side.

gold coast martin 11:05 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
6612=7612....

bkk david 11:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
nt hong kong and gold coast
now, possible to test low for gbpusd and eursud again

bkk david 11:03 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
any one
I just closed long gbpud at 1.8783

gold coast martin 11:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SUPPORT LEVELS of 13122,18808,10427, and 6612for EURO ,YEN,GBPand GBP(Alll this mornings resistance levels should hold and this mornings targets re-visited,,just to re-confirm....g/t

LondonJoe 11:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gbp shud head south now IMHO back to 1.8740-20

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:00 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Jake amigo, it's my wording that is confusing..the chart is consistantly and beautifully longing as martin said it would...the chop I referred to I see only on the 1 minute chart. You are correct obvioulsy..the chart is nice and trendy..UP. I should have been more specific in my post..tks, hope your acct is loving this!

In the past when the floor is reached after the first plunge from an overbought E/$, a major 500-700 pip up correction happens in E/$ rather fast in 2 days. At the rate we are going up on this pair we are gaining 70 pips in 11 hours. Interpolating this, 150 pips in 24 hours if we want to play with numbers and if it doesn't go hyperbolic. I REALLY want this chart to short to 1.29+ so as to form a good solid basis to long. At this point I have no bias however. I don't know whether to enter long here or just wait for the short that is predicted by viis and martin. Remember both Friday were RIGHT ON THE MONEY. (pun intended) Dolphin had a super position as well in the face of my doubt.

london, herts jr 10:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Am bearish cable..but buying today for dividend requirements...chance 18825..however will resell it below this 18780 lvl

Los Angeles ss 10:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
short term outlook for cable anyone?

bkk david 10:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
gold coast and nt hongkong

I think this new will make dow jone ++ and then usd weaken again for today.

Wall Street Analysts Get Record Pay Cut After Legal Settlements
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street analysts suffered the biggest pay cuts in securities industry history after U.S. regulators barred them from issuing research that was slanted to help win investment-banking assignments.

Average annual pay for a senior analyst in 2004 dropped about 50 percent from $1.5 million in 1999, said Gary Goldstein, head of New York-based Whitney Group, an executive search firm that specializes in Wall Street. Combined research budgets at the seven biggest U.S. securities firms fell 40 percent to $1.5 billion in 2003 from 2000 as companies fired analysts and cut their compensation, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York.

Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are among 10 firms that agreed to pay $1.4 billion in penalties in April 2003 after being accused of using biased research to gain lucrative underwriting and merger assignments. Since the settlement, analysts have been transformed from a revenue source into an unsustainable cost.

``The golden age for analysts is over,'' said Manny Goldman, 66, who provided research on the beverage industry for 28 years at several firms, including Sanford Bernstein and Paine Webber Inc. in San Francisco. ``I saw that with fewer initial public offerings and fewer mergers and acquisitions, there would be a focus on cost cutting. It's not as much fun anymore.''

Athens 10:51 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Re my 11:17 GMT January 9 he three european currencies have rebounded modestly as expected. For the time being EUR/$ 1.3140, 1.3180, $/CHF 1.1740 and cable 1.8825, 1.8885 are fairly tough and we might see the USD testing again its highs in the next 24 hours if it can hold these levels.

Cbj Jake 10:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Ah Quito! Respectfully disagree about charts behaving erratically. Change your time frame, change you! When there is too much ratonalization of the market's action I go micro.
For ego to sustain itself it need time. On the micro level their is no time for "What is happening?". You move! You do not know what is happening! The chrts were things of beauty for me tonight. Best to you. I learn so much from you.

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Brussels, for some reason I can't find your post..mind telling me the name of the website? Sorry. TIA much!!! :^)

bkk cad 10:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SAM euro/cad target 1.57 by next week. SOW 1.6120/40 but impatient.
Goodnight all!
SAM: sold at market
SOW: should have waited

gold coast martin 10:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW..Any figure close to my stop levels of thismorning constitute a good shorting opportunity....g/t

bkk david 10:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
nt hongkong

I agree with you.
I think eurusd should go at least 1.3800-1.3940 first if wave 5

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:39 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
China for China's sake is smart. Forget the RMB in FX..they don't want it. If they don't, they won't.

There is 50-50 Good-Bad "advice" on the forum today, but the chart has longed rather consistently since Asian opening today. FACT. Believing those who obviously had it right in this uncertain time. I shorted when told to short minutes ago..lucky for my small tp, thanks viis, you made me $$ again.

Martin, how are you coming with your data amigo? Your money flow factor for me at least is really the only answer here.

Bahrain within 10 pips 10:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
short cad for 1.21

Amman Fakhatni 10:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:29 GMT January 10, 2005
My new signal
EUR/USD Sell @ 1.3097

what about 131.50

Gen dk 10:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hong kong nt 10:32 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR -- either wave 5 or wave B, both point up despite of different destinations...

Amman wfakhoury 10:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
My new signal
EUR/USD Sell @ 1.3097

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
This chart is behaving erratically..it seems to want to present just about every pattern and trap one could imagine..liquidity must be very low and with Tokyo on holiday it's worse. I can't foresee a single move of the chart..it just wiggles and squiggles on its own. It still is a longing chart from Monday asian opening and the day candle has no top "wick". I see no short in sight YET. I wish those who say to short the chart would hold off lest someone lose $.

eur lg 10:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
fwiw came across this with repsect the China guessing game-

South China Morning Post reported on its Web site that "China probably
won't adopt a fully convertible currency before 2008 because the
government isn't ready to manage foreign exchange" - citing officials
such as Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress
Standing Committee.
"China would only make small adjustments to interest and exchange rates
this year if changes are needed to maintain stable monetary policy",
state-run Xinhua news agency said, citing a senior official with China's
top economic planner.

Brussels ML 10:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez,

yes that newsfeed is for free.
Yes it delivers the numbers a minute after the NFP

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Brussels, tks..I will check archives. I did check some inputs on news feeds but didn't find anything I was looking for..will check your post however..tks again. I want a free news feed that delivers for example economic announcements like nfp etc within a minute or so of the announcement. If there is such a service. Reasons: I want to use it and also put it on my financial website. Please don't ask for the website URL, that is against FF policy..you have to ask Jay for that.

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:19 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Viis, tks. I don't know how to derive flows from charts until after the chart presents itself..then for me it is too late. Flows show up sometimes a week later in the chart..depends. Thanks for your reply and for your valued posts. Your last Friday's call was indredible...I gained..how did you know it would short in X minutes? I would like to know that..most interesting..email me at my handle at yahoo if you wish. Tks.

Brussels ML 10:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez,

in regards to your "money flow"

I responded to your post a while ago when you were asking about reliable news feed services.
If you followed my instructions, you should've an overview of the current order flows in the market (all for free);

Not sure that's what you're looking for, but it's a start :)

london, herts jr 10:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well altho eur/yen and stg/yen a little bid...i have been listening to cnbc, and supposedly at c/banks meeting, china have stated that they intent to go ahead with reform, including interest rates and foreign exchange. Looks like the genreral market have not heard this yet?

Tallinn viies 10:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 10:03 GMT - charts are my flow info.

enough if you know how to read it

Bahrain within 10 pips 10:14 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 10:04 GMT January 10, 2005 ///
800 Points could a correction on a weekly chart...
This might take 20 days

hong kong nt 10:12 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR -- likely to see consolidation in 1.3020-1.3420 before next bigger move...

Bahrain within 10 pips 10:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
i.e
GBP/JPY...for next few days many think will hit 188 or 186..
all though I shorted it today...it won't reach there...
It's a buy at slightly over 192 for 202 area

Eilat Dolphin 10:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
within 10 pips/ I did not find any weekly candel on the last twelve years, wherein a week correction would be annihilated or even partially annihelated when coming from an oversold level like we had at 1.36 +.

And this is true for both sides of the E/$ styx;

Thus, the odds for this week are:

1.35 below 1%,
1.34 below 5%,
1.33 below 20%,
1.32 around 50%

While on the other side, it's still Terra Incongnita.

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:03 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, tks for your comments. Yes, it is make or break my short run model segment.

Tallinn Viis, any word amigo? You were Superman last week, still have faith in your calls of course...what say? Please, do you have money flow info on which yu base your calls? I don't want to know WHERE you get your info, only IF you hve money flow feed?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still a good reference, see the updated comment in my page. Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:00 GMT January 7, 2005
EUR/USD : My 22-day cycle references (03/12 - 07/12) indicate that a projected barrier is located at 1.3128 - 1.3147. The next supporting point is 1.3016 and a projected resistant point is expected at 1.3326. A projected barrier is positioning at 1.3434 - 1.3454.


Amman wfakhoury 09:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 06:40 GMT January 10, 2005
My signals for today
EUR/USD sell@ 1.3082
USD/JPY Buy @ 104.63
GBP/USD Sell 1.8737
USD/CHF buy1.1834

Bcn FXstreet.com 09:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil closed around the $45.3 level on friday, while US Dow Jones Index holds below the 10.630 level again. Check out Latest Forex News section to review overnight economic stories.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3100 level. Sell-off continued, following technicals, after the US NFP data was released on Friday. The number that came out was below expectations and should the conditions have been different, I’m quite sure it would’ve dragged the greenback down, hence my opinion that, “generally”, data is used to confirm an unfolding technical aspect for any particular currency pair. The Euro extended its losses well till the end of the session, making new lows as the week was to its end. It hit the lowest point at 1.3025, and, if fibonacci retracements were calculated from late august’s low (instead of year’s low), up to the highest point at 1.366, we see that Friday’s low at a.3025 coincides with the first fibo support level at 1.3025. At this moment, the division between those who think the Euro is done and will head for new lows and those who think that it might go to low 1.29’s but from there it should give new fresh highs above 1.40, is substantial. I’m of the opinion to watch the charts closely and adapt the view –if necessary- once key levels are broken. For now, Eruo could be forming (just speculation) the right shoulder (only starting to) of a head-and-shoulders formation on daily charts. To confirm it, it shouldn’t get pass the 1.3350 level (1.3450/1.3500 would definitely negate this view). If it doesn’t, the formation could be completed, and would target around 600 pips ... but as I said ... it is just speculation at this time.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (same date), but showing signs of oversold status.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8755 level, with the GBP recovering ground against the dollar after hitting fresh multi-week lows on Friday at 1.8645, joining the Euro on the ride down after the NFP data release. The double top around 1.95 worked efficiently and weighed on the pair for some weeks prior to the subsequent sell-off. It is currently battling to recover, and hold above, the support line that comes from a previous resistance level around 1.8755. Talking Fibonacci, if we take the low of october 2004 and connect to its recent highest point above 1.95, and calculate the fibo retracements in that upmove, we see the GBP currently trying to hold above the 50% retracement level (around 1.8640), its second support level, after having broken the 38,2% level (around 1.8855) quite easily.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (dec, 21, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Negative (late december, 2004), showing oversold status and signs of possible retracement.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1800 level. On Friday, we saw quite good technical behaviour by the USD against the swiss franc. It tried, without success, to break down double-bottom’s neckline around 1.1680, and finally it spurt up after the NFP release. Target for the double bottom has not been met yet, and it is situated around the 1.21 level. However, taking Fibonnacci into account, we’re around the 38.2% correction level of last downmove (from october 2004), which could provide some resistance for the moment.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD bullish (january, 4, 2005), ), but it shows signs of fatigue at this moment.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6985 level. The pair dipped well below 0.7 confirming the signs of exhaustion showed by Indicators watch 2, and the fact that was trading out of the uptrend channel for quite a time it proved to weigh on it. It is in no-man’s land at the moment, in the middle of the channel.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (change today). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (jan 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).

Eilat Dolphin 09:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Yes, I see this small correction upward as a buy from the commercial side picking some needed olives as to make sure, rather than the specs taking new postions-for-profit...
Thus I'm letting it mature, after two swims with the flow.

You did wake up pretty early!

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hi Dolphin, agree. There are legitimate yet conflicting views today in this whirlpool. Dangerous. Knowing money flows is the only way out of this, not charts. I am a chartist by default becuase, unlike martin, I have no money flow information. So that variable, money flow I feel supercedes all of us chart boys. GT to U my friend.

Cbj Jake 09:48 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW -Yen got rejected for the third time at 200ma inspite of the fact it had some nice mo into it. Off to snooze it all off. Nice to go to sleep to shed all - to go "home" neutral eh? Best to you all.

Eilat Dolphin 09:47 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Hi! So it's the early condor that flies off with the chick...

Your long and inspiring post of yesterday's morning, (the Fuji Yama, with a calderon), and some cold weather made me do at least two full hours of studying of the montlhlies on dozens of crosses.

A time frame I almost always avoided.
It was enlighting.

With range lines centered around 13.5 and +- 10%, and EMA at 12... convinces that we haven't seen the low of the euro Friday evening, among others... unless we accept the notion of records over records, before they occur, and without special reasons...

Thus, Thanks!

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:46 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
hummmmmmmm where's the short?

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 09:37 GMT January 10, 2005 ///
I don't know...this week will have tough calls...
Long term VS. Medium term.....
Might mean more volitilty

Eilat Dolphin 09:37 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Within 10 pips/ The charts do not support your view, (if Orwell is right and the past is a lesson).

Weeklies and monthlies say such move did not exist before a long time of treading water and descending some more.

I tend to beleive them, especially after climbing one of the biggest mountains at a redord speed.

Relief rally at most...

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 09:29 GMT January 10, 2005 ///
I have the same exact conflict...
The only thing is...if euro stays with low volitilty..next day or two...then 1.28 is unlikely...the bigger wave will take over

Syd 09:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
LDN SAM they normally expire 14.00gmt dont know size .

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain, timing is perfect for a 2 day rally to 1.34-1.36 as you said but that is if this is obeying my model...of 2-6 updown cycles before a 1 month short term trend change. On the other hand 1.29 is still in the running. Two conflicting views, either of which could make you a lot of money or cost you a lot of money if you get on the wrong side with wide stop. I have no ego..my model is just a model..egos are too expensive for my blood.

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Cable is on verge of strong rally too maybe 1.86 to 1.96...:)

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:25 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
viis amigo..tks for yur posts. Do you see a peak here in 1.3110 to short? Your opinion sir please.

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:23 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I Think this the beginging of the rally..euro reaching 1.3850

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Rule #1 Never short a longing chart. If it follows a resistance line, it's longing.

Tallinn viies 09:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
1,3100 till 1,3150 very good area to sell euro big time - of course for intraday reasons....
stop at 1,3164.
target 1,2950/60

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
cor NZ: 0.7350

Gen dk 09:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain within 10 pips 09:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
NZ is Buy for next 30 days
Might hit 1.7350

Dallas Mauricio 09:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Good Day Everyone. GL/GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:30 GMT January 9, 2005
Spot Gold : My 44-day cycle references (6/1 - 7/1) suggest that 420.2 is the key reference. ..................................Speculative buying interest will increase if the market can overcome the projected resistant barrier at {423.3} - 424.4.......................................

Eilat Dolphin 08:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Went flat. Seems there are multy layers of nets entangfling the E in those unroaring nineties, however he does not seem scared...

London Iain 08:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW usd should turn lower either now or on a probe to a very limted new high. Even if the new trend in the USD higher is the case then at least a significant dip should develop in the week/s ahead. 1.3270 (38.2 fib) min upside on eurusd if Fridays low holds @ 1.3022 holds.

LDN SAM 08:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SYD 08H17: Thx for the info on options...Do U have an idea of size? What time does it expire plse...Thx!!!

Los Angeles ss 08:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thoughts on cable to short at these levels and target?

Bahrain within 10 pips 08:33 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eur/chf seems Like a sell long term

Bahrain within 10 pips 08:32 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Shorted yen a while ago and just short GBP/Yen for a day

Hong Kong Qindex 08:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Spot Gold : The market has a potential to move higher from the current quote of 420.40 / 420.90.

lax-lgb SNP 08:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
short on £/¥ & £/$ @ mkt

Cbj Jake 08:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Lots of fun down here! Yen got rejected again at 200.

wellington am 08:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Gold going for a run - $/bulls lookout

Atlanta-South 08:26 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
It might have just had its breather. It has made several runs @ the 1.3095 over the last several hrs with no success @ going thru. I guess I'm just tired. I too feel 1.29 is in sight. Thks for your response Dolphin.

Eilat Dolphin 08:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
viies/ Good. I am taking the bus to your hilltop stop.

manila stubbs 08:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:13 GMT January 10, 2005
1,3090/95 seems to be already to tough to crack...
sell it here and leave stop over 1,3155

non-stop impressive calls my friend

Tallinn viies 08:20 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 08:16 GMT - could be as real resistance is 1,3100/05 for me.

Syd 08:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Large 1.3050 Strike Expires Today

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 08:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 05:12 GMT January 8, 2005
EUR

BUY AT MARKET 1.3050

STOP 60 PIPS

TARGET 1.3220-1.3270

MAY WORK MAY NOT

Eilat Dolphin 08:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
viies: 90 will give way soon...

Eilat Dolphin 08:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Atlanta South/ The Anaconda needs to breath sometimes.
Like today.

Tallinn viies 08:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
1,3090/95 seems to be already to tough to crack...
sell it here and leave stop over 1,3155

Atlanta-South 08:11 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Whats happed to 1.2900? Is this just alittle correction before the visit to 1.2900? Any thoughts someone.

Eilat Dolphin 08:02 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
viies/ Hi! After some thourough cheking of the last 777 weekly E/$ candels; nowhere (both sides) is there such a move as last weeks that does not extend into the same direction in the following week or weeks.
Thus, 1.29 is in the pipe.

The retracement from the last days oversold level is an unknown however...

FRA Alpha Tango 08:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
short sterling 1.8743

Cbj Jake 07:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
For you guys who like the sub atomic level, fight for the 200ma on the 1/5min. Yen just lost it to the euro. Good trades to you all.

Eilat Dolphin 07:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Happy morning all! Went flat after some 20 sardines breakfeast.

The market woke up at 07:00 with new and conflicting energies.

However oversold on D and 4 H, I'd rather wait for Trichet to talk before attempting any thing more than eventual random piping.

May be he'll say, again, that he does not like volatility. (That's where we aren't supposed to laugh.)

Philadelphia Caba 07:52 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:49 GMT January 10, 2005
Thanks, appreciate your comments.

Tallinn viies 07:49 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 07:45 - probably not. definatelly I would buy at 1,2855/65 level.
panic, greed and fear behind the move. lets them work for us for a while. first sign that eur/usd pair stabilized is move over previous day high. until that happens I would rather play this cross on the short side.

Philadelphia Caba 07:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:39 GMT January 10, 2005

Mean 1.2950 area..

Syd 07:44 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD now targets 1.3020 ahead of 1.2925 in developing downtrend, downside intact below 1.3249
censored

Philadelphia Caba 07:43 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:39 GMT January 10, 2005

God morning! Will you buy than, at 1.2985 area? Thanks.

Helsinki iw 07:41 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Although the euro has broken key support and has room on the downside to 1,2915/25 and maybe 1,2695/05, the daily charts are severly oversold because of the speed of this move. Would not sell anymore at these levels at the moment, but rather look for better levels or some unwinding of indicators.IMHO

Tallinn viies 07:39 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
good morning world!
short euro from 1,3075. target 1,2950/60.
selling agressivle up to 1,3155.
stop at 1,3164. from there till 1,3285/90 I would like to see developments but basically it is still bearish there also.
key stop and reverse at 1,3294 today. which is 99% sure we dont see it today. first level to sell at 1,3100/05. next at 1,3140/50 area.
downside favoured as long as 1,3285 coontains
good luck all

london, herts jr 07:22 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hearing a clearing bank has dividend paymnet to be made today at 11.00 london fix...cable normally stays wanted as well as bid till then.. so be careful

gold coast martin 07:00 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....short aud @7581..t/p (as per this mornings post)..stop 7612,,,,,,,using 7608 resistance level...g/t

Amman wfakhoury 06:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
My signals for today
EUR/USD sell@ 1.3082
USD/JPY Buy @ 104.63
GBP/USD Sell 1.8737
USD/CHF buy1.1834

G O O D L U C K

Halifax CB 06:39 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Chart Page updated.
Two interesting charts - the GBPUSD based on the short term history continues to want to go very long; basd on the longer term history, it wants to short significantly. I've close my position & will stay out till they start getting along.

Also USDCAD, on the longer history chart, is showing two strongly competing potential paths. Again, I'm out, but it will be interesting watching that one develop.

London. 06:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Dollar
Will Rise as Fed Lifts Rates, Economist Weinberg Says

Los Angeles ss 06:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
test

HK REVDAX 06:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
QC WC 04:36//Pay attention to what the US$ will do on Jan 12. The fx market has its own fung shui motion.

LA fxnew 06:05 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
GEP:
what is your overall view on cable today?
is it moving down or up ?
thanks

Los Angeles ss 06:05 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I meant cable down to 1.8685

Los Angeles ss 05:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Gep -- My call as well. If it breaks that I'll see how it behaves maybe around 1.8785 if it gets down there. Thanks.

Dallas GEP 05:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well 1.8710 intially

Los Angeles ss 05:53 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Gep -- nice call on my GBP short. What do you see as the down side?

Dallas GEP 05:50 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Longed usd/cad at market 20 pip stop target 1.2330

monteria,colombia juan david 05:15 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
orlando jcr , hi, the timing was very acurate since it was at the top of the range at that time.

orlando jcr 05:08 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Juan,

I can't remember where I read it, but one of the links from fx--street suggested it. I can't find it right now, but I had set an alarm on my platform to inform me of the position and I jumped in. It had an asia range of 1.3085-1.0328

I'm more of a short term player, so I won't be looking for that type of range...

Actually, I'm in the +pip right now so I'll probably set a trailing and off to bed.

hong kong nt 05:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
EURO -- hopefully to see range trading 15/95 for a short while...

monteria,colombia juan david 04:48 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
orlando jcr , hi, what signals did you have in order to entry your short position in euro?

QC WC 04:36 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Revdax, it's been quite sometime since your last post, good to hear from you.

London. 04:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Evidence that recent USD bounce has further to go in coming weeks: USD Index, at 83.42, rose Friday above December peak of 83.18 which triggers double bottom (December troughs); downtrend line from October has broken, weekly oscillators bullish (momentum posted positive divergence, MACD staging bullish crossover). In coming weeks, index has three reasonable targets: 84.94 (38.2% retracement of fall from May 2004 peak), objective of double bottom at 85.40, and top of long-term downtrend channel from early 2002 (now 85.60). reuters news

Dallas GEP 04:34 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well, really 1.3107 should hold it but if it gets near there and stochs and macd's have turned down at the time I will probably hold it still. Watch usd/jpy in asia for clues...104.50/55 should really hold in Asia timeframe and I look for it to long from there. 104.80-105.00 likely in Asia IMO

orlando jcr 04:28 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
GEP,

Interested...
I had signal to short E$ at 1.3085/90 - and took at 1.3087...
What have you figured for SL.

For now I've put in my standard 10, but wasn't sure on it.

HK REVDAX 04:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Attn: HK FX Traders

There is a Fung Shui prediction in political forum which might interest some of you.

Syd 04:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   

Reserve Bank boosts its forex reserves to $15bn

London. 03:59 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Bankers alarmed for dollar
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/01/09/business/bank.html

Philadelphia Caba 03:56 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thanks GEP, will wait for London opening.

Dallas GEP 03:55 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Well support on CHF @ 1.1830 and also at 1.1800. Bias short term IMO has not yet been established. My guess is fairly tight range trading in ASIA.

Syd 03:51 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Australian Dollar Drops on Speculation Economic Growth to Slow

Australian Dollar Drops on Speculation Economic Growth to Slow

Australia's current account deficit -- the broadest measure of international trade because it incorporates trade, services, tourism spending and financial transactions -- is 6.5 percent of gross domestic product. New Zealand's current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is 5.6 percent and the U.S. is 5.8 percent, according to Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie bank Ltd. in Sydney.

``Australia's economy is slowing while the U.S. is showing signs of picking up,'' said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Ltd. ``I've got no plans to buy the currency'' as it will fall to 74 cents in coming weeks.

Philadelphia Caba 03:48 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
GEP, what's your view on usdchf? Shorting from 1.1871 & left short order higher at 1.1890, 1.1910..Thanks.

Los Angeles ss 03:46 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Gep.

Dallas GEP 03:45 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
YES I do SS, short term yes....1.8746 slightly better IMO

Los Angeles ss 03:42 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Gep, you think cable would be a decent short in the 1.8740 range?

Halifax CB 03:40 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Re EURUSD, my latest chart appears to indicate that the next little while the pair will carry on ringing (as is typical after a big move), but also drifting down. The time frames on all charts are dubious, as they are just just rough approximations based on Fridays switching rate for the point and figure plots.

Dallas GEP 03:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Shorted EUr/USD at market...target 1.3050

Sydney 03:38 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
what a cock up

Sydney 03:35 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trichet, Group of 10 Bankers May Say Dollar Remains Growth Risk
,A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001096&sid=atN1txxGM5wk&refer=world_currencies">
link
Trichet currently chairs the G-10 discussions, held every two months under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, which serves the world's central banks. The ECB president said after the group's Nov. 8 meeting that the euro's appreciation against the dollar was ``not welcome.'' The G-10 bankers agreed that global growth will probably slow ``a little'' this year after an ``exceptionally dynamic'' 2004, Trichet said then.

LA fxnew 03:31 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
thank u guys .. for more advice and comment on cable ^_^

Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Halifax CB 03:23 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Re. Cable, we are still seeing a strong upward bias & have a lng on. But note that on the chart I am using for guidance there's a growing path bifurcation below. Also, the rails on either side are are very strong, so that I would treat any move outside (to either side) as a signal that the model is no longer valid & needs to be rerun, and the position should be closed.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:10 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. I believe Consolidation will be the theme for the beginning of the week as the eur/usd gets a footing and most participants come to play. We shall see how the traders feel about this level for eur/usd pair to sell or to buy will be decided in the next few days. Intraday indicators are in O/S area but the daily indicators still have some more room to go. It is sell on any resistance failure as the key resistance broke. Anything above (3250-80) will change me to buy then. Here are the new levels for this pair.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3100-10, 3130-40, 3170-80, 3210-20, 3250-3280, 3310-20, 3340-50, 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3480-90, 3520-40, 3580-3600 and 3650-70. Main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3490-3500, 3390-3400, 3300-10, 3210-20, and 3110-20.
Retracement numbers are 3415-25, 3260-70, 3140-50, 3020-30 and 2865-75
Second wave retracement numbers are 3320-30, 3100-10, 2940-50, 2770-80 and 2555-65 for now key retracement number is 2940-50.
Resistance T/L 3380-90 and 3470-80 Support T/L 3030-40 for now.
Support is around the 3070-80, 3030-40, 2940-50, 2890-2900 and 2850-60 for now key support is around the 2940-50 area IMHO. GL GT

Syd 02:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Upward USD bias likely intact going into February's G7 finance officials' meeting Fed significantly toning down their neglect of strong USD policy (Snow's remarks Friday, Fed's Dec. 14 meeting minutes), possibly to appease G7 unhappiness over weak USD
DBS Bank
FX strategist Philip Wee;

LA fxnew 02:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
of course I would like to ask for advice. ..

if you are trading .. what is ur view for today pls?

thanks ..

NYC YIPPEE 01:57 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
LA fxnew

Why do you ask?

Los Angeles ss 01:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
I trade cable.

LA fxnew 01:51 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
hi again ;
just wanna know who the good traders are ;
most ppl here posted good advice on euro but lacked of cable advice...

does anyone know who cable traders are?

thanks again

Philadelphia Caba 01:29 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Took small short eurchf with stop above 1.5533.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Rule for the day concerning greed, the only emotion necessary for trading: Make sure that greed for profits does not override greed to KEEP profits.

wellington am 01:19 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Trying small short - AUD/CAD: ozzy employment data poor and deficit numbers likely to be poor, CAD employment numbers good and technicals suggest correction against US overdone. 150pip stop, target sub .9200 - swing trade.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:13 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
GEP// if you're around..messsenger pls.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:11 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Off to rest for "tomorrow"...flat..maybe stupid not to long euro but when I am not comfortable with something I don't trade.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Ltn th 00:16 GMT January 10, 2005 // If you don't use standard browsers then you will have to put up with the results from wannabes. Sorry, don't mean to offend but a website is made to be compatible with the majority of users..i.e. MIE. Again, not wanting to offend.

Jay, is Treasury Forum available to everyone or to subscribers of GVI only? I can't find it in the menu but I thought it used to be there..comment please for all to see.

San Diego DC 01:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
BELFAST Brainstorm ,
You used the right terminology, 'swing long' on EUR/$.

Syd 00:58 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Fall Biggest Since Dec 2003
ANZ Internet Job Ads -0.6% In Dec Vs Nov; +38.0% On Yr
The number of job advertisements in Australian newspapers fell 3.4% in December from November, their biggest decline in a year, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd

Syd 00:54 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
AUD risk in domestic data flow this week; a weak Dec. jobs report on Thursday could expose AUD to more selling

BELFAST Brainstorm 00:50 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
totally agree with you san diego a low is now in place and a swing long on the euro is the right side to be on ...at least 100 pip onwards !

Hong Kong Qindex 00:50 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

San Diego DC 00:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc ,

Thank You

San Diego DC 00:24 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tonite and tomorrow, those that are short EUR/$ and GBP/$ will give their money to those that are long on both.

shanghai bc 00:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   

DC -- Good morning..A range option..Good trades.

FXNEW -- Good morning..The front-wheel of Eur/Usd Mercedes is Eur/Jpy..The front-wheel is falling off now thanks to seasonal factor..Hundreds of billions of Dollars and Euros will be coming home in Q1..Being combined with stiff support in USX 80,the line of resistence is reasonably clear for Q1..But Dollar is not on a rocket either and most likely to keep falling after the seasonal factor and oversold factor wears off..Good trades..

Syd 00:21 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
NZ 05 Home Building To Fall 16% -WBC

Hong Kong Qindex 00:18 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Spot Gold : It looks okay so far.

FRA Alpha Tango 00:17 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
that's gonna be boring! out of the market
back for London, could go up or could go down!

Ltn th 00:16 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
valdez 22:25. Pse read question properly. Forum is compliant with M$IE browser variant which is too dangerous an animal to use for serious work! My browser automatically aborts a lot of sidebars and some links.

Tallinn viies 00:09 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
took tiny short euro position at 1,3075. next sell at 1,3104 and last at 1,3144.
stop all at 1,3164
target 1,2950/60
ok, good bight

Hong Kong Qindex 00:07 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 00:06 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:04 - pure luck! nothing else

FRA Alpha Tango 00:06 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
short sterling at .20 add at .56 , the chart looks bad

shanghai bc 00:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   

QINDEX 23:58 --Good morning..Good forecasts and trades..

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:04 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viis, you are one of the heros of last week. Question sir, you predicted Friday's short pracitcally TO THE MINUTE some minutes before. Could you tell us if you got that information from pure system and technicals or do you have "other private information" which you can not discuss? Thank you and TIA for this Q.

Tallinn viies 00:03 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:54 GMT - thnks a lot. good trades to you also.
safer bet for me right now to sell out of the money euro calls to 1,3400-1,3500 level.
downside looks attractive with such momentum.
good night going to bed now

LA fxnew 00:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
hi shanghai bc and viies:

if you are saying euro will go down ..... cable will drop too...
does that mean the trend has changed??? it turns to downtrend ???

thank u

Livingston nh 00:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
On the daily charts the 89 ema has been sup/res for AUD, CAD, CHF and EUR with a minor breach by Cable (USD/JPY is still trapped at the 55EMA) -- yen above the 55ema will challenge the 106 lvl // others bouncing off 89ema will approach their respective 55ema but this would be a fairly tight range and very short term// still think EUR suffers from ECB speculation this week -

San Diego DC 00:01 GMT January 10, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc ,

What is DNT ?
TIA

 


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