Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2005

sg kan 23:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Good morning Gold coast martin
Whats your call for today's asian session on euro and gbp.

GOES B747 23:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
re: Brazil's very high interest rates; it's impact on people.

http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=7f0de4d5-4097-4ae0-ac49-5e5034544ab4

gt all

Ldn ;-) 23:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD -- to drift after overnight fall to 2-month low of 1.2965, partly due to dovish comments from ECB officials. Technically,
daily chart has unwound negative momentum developments at highs and there's slight positive momentum divergence against last
two lows (January 7 and 18), corrective squeeze higher looks possible, with strong resistance at 1.3227-1.3293
(55-day moving average, horizontal trendline); but adds weekly and monthly charts remain negative - weekly shows largest
down week since 1995 highs and negative divergence, currently on track for 1.2500, and monthly attempting to form triple
negative monthly stochastic momentum divergence; says rallies/corrections to resistance should be sold into.
Citigroup

London. 23:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Commission, U.S.-based J&J (JNJ: news, chart, profile) said the charge is related to $11 billion in profits from its foreign operations.

Syd 23:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
NZ December House Sales Were 8377; Down 3.7% On-Year

Livingston nh 22:59 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
welllington AM - Argentina bonds are subject of a roadshow as the country tries to get 50% approval for restucturing-- apparently not getting a very warm reception

wellington am 22:58 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Spotforex NY 22:50 GMT January 19, 2005

Yeah, read that one. Good read! And of course the story of shorting the kiwi ...

Talking of carry trade's what's going to happen with the bloody Yen pairs. Any takers? Personally I can't see them heading down too much futher - but qindex and weekly charts predict further down moves.

Pecs Andras 22:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Guys
Anyone has seen the NZ retail sales data?
IFR said it would be posted at 21:45 GMT. That was an hour ago. TIA

Spotforex NY 22:50 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wellington am

you should read the recent article in the Economist magazine about the greatest trades ever....

Tops was the Lira convergence trade in the latter part of the 1990s.....talks about the banking person who was reading a newspaper and saw an ad about Italian savings bondswith a nice, high yield. this guy had his dad in the UK buy some of these postal bonds....he then took that idea to a few banks and the mother of all carry trades was underway.......

Tallinn viies 22:46 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
last
ifr: J&J To Repatriate 11 BLN USD In Foreign Assets

Tallinn viies 22:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
oki, going to sleep now.
crude works ok.
cu tom morning when euro trades at 1,2920

wellington am 22:22 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 22:20 GMT January 19, 2005

LOLOL.

LondonJoe 22:20 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Welly - you would be doing well if you rang BNZ , the Pac or NBNZ to buy some kiwi bonds and they were helpful !!!

wellington am 22:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Spotforex NY 21:49 GMT January 19, 2005

That makes me depressed. 3 months ago I rang around all the local banks in NZ to see if I could buy some brazilian bonds - no one wanted to help.

LondonJoe 22:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
By the time Turkey adopts the EUR , Euroland will have had a ZIRP ( Zero Interest Rate Policy) for a decade !!.. (like japan!) ....

Spotforex NY 22:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
big words from Mahathir...he did everything opposite what the IMF recommended after the Asian Flu - and it worked.

LondonJoe 22:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Riga...one day... not tomorrow.. it will be a long process
Its a long way from Ankara to Brussells...

Tallinn viies 22:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
last time I saw such total oil stocks then oil traded near 38 usd barrel....
let see

Syd 22:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Mahathir says Malaysia's currency peg to dollar should be reviewed

LINK

Riga Jim 22:07 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
LondonJoe 21:45 GMT January 19, 2005
on the other hand look at Turkey [..] all eyes on entering euro at some stage and an interest rate of 2.00 %//

Aren't you runnin' too fast?

Syd 22:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
thanks everyone for the advise

Pecs Andras 22:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Has anybody seen the NZ retail sales numbers? TIA

Spotforex NY 21:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:39

It has been THE place to be for some months now. Appreciating ccy and high yields......

Real is at Critical level vs USD for the past few weeks, but sub 2.72 on a weekly basis favors the Real.

GOES B747 21:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:39 GMT // maybe you will not risk your money, but your banker does that for sure.

gt

LondonJoe 21:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
on the other hand look at Turkey
the internal borrowing rate on the local currency had gone down to an average of 24.7 percent in 2004 compared to an average of 62.7 percent in 2002 when the country was struggling with its worst recession in decades...... all eyes on entering euro at some stage and an interest rate of 2.00 %...... whooshka....

wellington am 21:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:39 GMT January 19, 2005

What did Argentina holders of its defaulted bonds - 30% on the original or something? Ha. But hey, Brazil's got Oil!

Reckon I'd consider parking some funds there.

Syd 21:39 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim not sure if I would risk parking money there even with those rates

Riga Jim 21:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd 20:58 GMT // 18 % p.a.??? Yikes! What is their devaluation rate then?:)

Halifax CB 21:01 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
The DJ is soooo conservative. I'm wagering on 1.26 at least before the uptrend is back (if it ever is)...That's just eyeballing off the roughly 1000 pip losses in the last two big eurusd corrections, and noting that the underlying support appears to be nearing an inflection point, which may go to critical. In either case it should provide less support than previously.

Syd 20:58 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Brazil's Central Bank Hikes Key Rate To 18.25% Vs 17.75%

London. 20:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
According to DJ Euro Bears Smell A Cent And A Half
with the euro standing to lose another cent and a half, roughly. Traders have to give it room for a move down to a potential bottom at $1.2825

Atlanta-South 20:43 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin//Where do u see EUR/USD in the next 4 hrs.
I'm long now from near the last low. Thanks for you valued advice.

Syd 20:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Iraqi interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said Wednesday that he would issue a detailed statement next week setting out plans for an eventual U.S. military withdrawal,
The New York Times

wellington am 20:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY anyone? quindex? Hourly's looking bullish, daily's over bought, weekly's still bearish ...

Tallinn viies 20:20 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
before I go,
MNI said: The announcement by pharmaceutical company Pfizer, stating that it was considering repatriating up to $29 bn in extra ordinary dividends (RTRS) served to give the dollar an added lift in an already upward trending market,

Tallinn viies 20:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
most easiest way how corporates tend to hedge here their future revenues: they buy euro call CALL here for 3M or 6M or 12M. lets 5% from the beginning of the. amount is future revenues 6-9 months ahead and then sell double amount PUT to 1,22 for example where dollar is +10% per year. basically in worst case you just fix 12 months with +7,5%.
and this scenario is zero cost or actually you got to do it 0 cost...
ok, cu tom
have a nice one

Global-View Research 20:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Fed Official Notes Foreign Demand For US Bonds...Is It Distortionary? Desirable? (FXA)<

Fed Governor Bernanke today sounded as if he was making an observation that long-term rates in the US are so low because of foreign demand. But I think there was more to it....See full story in our research section CLICK HERE

Tallinn viies 20:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
personally not very unhappy about the eurusd...
as managed to build up crude short position, which is under water at the moment but I have big hopes there after stock numbers later today.
basically 50 from one side and 44 from the other. high today was 48,50. yesteday saw 49,70/75 as I remember...
big time overbought as fundamentals better than last year at same time.ok got to run, cu tom

gold coast martin 19:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   


FWIW,,,short yen@10289,,stop@10316...t/p10227-32....
short aud@7592...stop@7651..t/p...7447.....

g/t

Tallinn viies 19:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
good evening boyz n galz...,
unfortunatelly I didnt get last part of long time expected move down to old tops....
1,2825-1,2925 level well known and mostly expected by Corporates! my old chaps from customer desks and old clients of and of course my of group financiers all them have mentioned that level . 5% plus within 1 month of the year and close to old top means BIG time euro buy level for them.
same type of mania like previuos year we saw 1,1830-1,1930 levels....
could be that we see it down to 1,25 within first Q but then it mybe that this will stay as the low for all year.....
nevermind, just wanted to say that from tommorow lot and lot of corporates start to check the rates and one stage we may see that interbank desks cant compete with them as small fishes are also trying to pick the bottoms. and demand will be bigger than supply.
lets see how this develops, personally Im ready to start collecting euros in the area 1,25-1,2800.

Surabaya Medallion 19:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
All is fake until 1.29 can be breached. Still looking for 1.333. Remember this is Euro afterall.

Rockford BDR 19:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
very interesting post CK

prague viktor 19:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim 19:33 GMT January 19, 2005..
above 1,3

Pecs Andras 19:37 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Jim
Since it has been a slow, steady grind downwards, I would vote for a close below 1.3000, which is quite bearish for EUR
IMHO

Riga Jim 19:33 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
BTW, your votes are welcome:

1) Either EUR/USD closes below 1.2995 today (22 GMT)
2) Or we close above 1.3000 to avoid a confirmation of break out of H&S - and confirm a fakeout instead.

This is gambling at the moment, but you risk nothing.
I'd put my 0.001 cents on a breakout (Option 1). But, then, it might as well be a fakeout (or shakeout) to kick out some longs and shoot up again...

Your opinion is welcome.

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Shorted usd/jpy @ 102.90.....stop 30 pips...tp 102.35

SanFrancisco Analyst 19:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
If $chf is going to clear and hold 1900 any time soon I think it would need a very good reason. Question is to expect any worthy retracement or not. I can see 1850, below that I think might require the London session or very solid reason if during asia. Best case 1835 near-session.

Pecs Andras 19:24 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Jim
Thanks, I can see now. Also, AUD/NDZ is keeping the kiwi up

Riga Jim 19:19 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
P.S. If euro closes below 1.2995 today I would expect Aussie and Kiwi to catch up soon.

Riga Jim 19:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Andras, EUR/AUD says it all. Hovering around the lower part of daily downward channel...

Dublin CK 19:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 13:44 GMT January 19, 2005

Repatriation of US companies profits from low tax countries? Will it lead to a flow of dollars into the US?

I have discussed the repatriation issue with some colleagues of mine who are also in the International accounting standards business.

If a tax holiday (or minimal additional taxes to be paid) is given to companies who repatriate profits back to the US, does not mean that actual money will be exchanged into dollars and sent back.

In the simplest terms. No

What are more likely scenario will occur is that ledger balances (for example profit and loss reserves in the balance sheet) will be journalised from one account in a foreign subsidiary to another account in a home company using an exchange rate for that period to translate the amounts. In what is called an intercompany transaction.

Being more technical: the ideal solution would the most tax efficient which might be through payment of dividends, payment or issuing of preference shares, (re) payment of intercompany loans.

Or in Enron/Parmalat/Elan terms: US Parent lends foreign sub money. Foreign sub makes purchases from the US Parent. No goods or services are sent or received. Foreign sub pays for non existent items with the money they were lent in the first place. Parent companys sales have increased by 10%.Stock price increases by 15%. Management get whopping bonuses.

The actual cash in bank and cash equivalents such as trade receivables and inventories would not be touched because they are needed for daily workings of the company.

Will countries such as Ireland with low corporate tax rates suffer? Potentially if it makes more economic sense to have your corporate earnings taxed in the US. But can you see a corporate tax rate of 12.5% and a very business friendly environment.

Irish charm and little red tape.

In Forex terms, its what the market sentiment feels at the time so it could go either way.

gold coast martin 19:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
pecs.....its just natural lagging,,they catch up slowly but surely.....

Pecs Andras 19:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
sorry: and sterling is also an exc

Pecs Andras 19:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Every ccy is posting session lows wxcept for aussie and kiwi against the dollar. Why the heck is that?

Washington DC 19:07 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
BEIGE BOOK:

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before January 10, 2005. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts indicated that economic activity continued to expand from late November through early January. Eleven districts characterized activity as expanding with Atlanta, New York, and Richmond noting that the pace of activity had quickened since their last reports. The Cleveland District was less upbeat, characterizing economic activity in that district as mixed... BEIGE BOOK

Toronto Alex 18:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Sorry folks - did not see GVI message.

Help forum from here on end. Sorry.

Global-View 18:41 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Toronto Alex 18:34 GMT January 19, 2005 - you should be posting on the Help Forum, not the Forex Forum

jkt-aye 18:35 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thx Martin. I expect it can tackle 103.05 to square my long yesterday, but as price seem too lazy i'm out in early asian time. Trying to re-enter, base on diamond (?) on 4H. ...now trying my patience. GT

Toronto Alex 18:34 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hi all,

I know you're all very busy (grin) -- thanks to MTL Jan and others for their email and posts on here.

I am going to read Murphy's book. Regarding the other books from Luis (??), I've seen his books in the store and found them to a bit fluff and magical - I could be wrong.

As in, they don't really write it from perspective of -- this is what you need to read, these are the services you need to consider, the forums you need to follow, the strategies you need to try, the testing you need to perform. I know there is no one single strategy.

Just I am trying to get a 'forex in the box' kind of start that gets me going rather than focusing on different elements of stock trading (for trends or fundamentals etc etc)...is there a 'bible' on forex like Murphy's 'bible' on stock technicals?

Am I asking too much? It's snowing like heck today in Toronto and a little warmer so I have time to read - no hockey remember?

Amman Inatent 18:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
My scrabble set/system is missing the letters r f p o i & t.Other than that it's perfect.

london d 18:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
tks mate

sg kan 18:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks martin

Tor Pumpkin 18:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
about 10 minutes ago, EBS low in jpy cross = 133.13. dealt there several times.

gold coast martin 18:24 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   


sg kan 18:21 GMT January 19, 2005
E/ has support at 12974 ,,,in view of the time of day,,,,momentum is slowing so 12949 is not on...it will just range bwtweem 12982 and 13012 for the rest of this session....g/t

london d 18:24 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
hi guys what was ebs low on eurjpy then please?

Halifax CB 18:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Re. Halifax CB 12:56 GMT January 19, 2005
I had a chance to check my figures; 1.275, not 1.29, is my estimate of the expected value of eurusd once the 4 week rule plays out (based on linear regreesinon of similar events over several years in the eurusd). But the sample size for similar events is small, so I'm just using this as a guide.

paramus,nj jf 18:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 18:05 GMT January 19, 2005
if you need a description for your system
try --- s.c.r.a.b.b.l.e.

sg kan 18:21 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold coast martin
what's your view on euro now? Will it go down to 1.2940 by the end of session? TIA

B.A. BOCA 18:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
cable sitting at hourly trendline support, fwiw.

might be worth a s/t long here...

gold coast martin 18:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
jkt-aye 18:01 GMT January 19, 2005


FWIW,,,,i would wait for levels of 1225-32 before i long for a target of 10278..and 10336...current levels are in-between levels...patience you will get to 10225-32 again,,,market today is choppy and full os surprides...lol...

jkt-aye 18:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Martin, any insight to enter long us/jy at this stage ?

Chicago Irish 18:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
rofl

Fra ff 18:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
That is absolutely correct.
However your system worked many times.
What does it say now?

Amman wfakhoury 18:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
my last msg is a reply for FRA ff

Amman wfakhoury 18:09 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I did not say that I am perfect.
there are diffrent factors affect the markets.
and sure there are wrong signals .

Amman wfakhoury 18:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
My call gives if there is uptrend or downtrend,
it start on the hour 00 ,if the move against the signal
I excit wit 4-5 pips loose and re-enter again at half
of the hour ,I use another indicators to exit such as MA
support or resistance level.

Makassar Alimin 18:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
out of euro short at 1.3003 from 1.31 level mentioned few days ago, and out of usd/yen long since friday 102.08 at 102.46

Chicago Irish 18:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Oh please......apparently that system is the "No Stops,no worries we'll all be dead soon enough" variety,too many of those have graced this forum.

gold coast martin 18:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
jkt-aye 18:01 GMT January 19, 2005

ENJOY IT!!!!.....G/L

Dallas GEP 18:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
YEP the Martinizing machine is in great order!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 18:02 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
OK out on Euro longs...sorry guys this is just REALLY jerky Will wait for confirmations

Eilat Dolphin 18:01 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Brooklyn park/ That not only because martin is a nice guy, but also because where he lives, they got gold even in the sand, or in the girls' hairs and even on their body, some say...

So when you take thekids to the beach, they get used to it dripping from their fingers, and then, later in life...

jkt-aye 18:01 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
time for cigar Martin ? GT

Fra ff 18:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Well amman, your signal definetly missed this time.
But nobody and nothing's perfect, right?

gold coast martin 17:58 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras 17:53 GMT January 19, 2005
STILL HAVE TODAYS kiwi short.....has more downside,,,,,,,keep it if you have some still...g/t

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I'd like to share a bit of my experience, bearing in mind I am not a decades old hand at foreign exchange. Every single commercial indicator out there I have experimented with (and I spent countless hours with countless variations and adaptations) is flawed to some degree. I found you have to grasp the way currencies work to not be "surprised" when and indicator doesn't reflect accurately or otherwise doesn't reflect at all. Another painful lesson was that levels are made to be broken so simply trading ranges and/or breakouts as a rule of expectation will do just as much or more damage.

Pecs Andras 17:53 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Martin
Very nice trades, mate. GT

gold coast martin 17:53 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Brooklyn Park 17:51 GMT January 19, 2005


lol....NO...i just do it for free!!!..g/l to all....

Brussels ML 17:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Good calls as always Martin. Thanks.

Brooklyn Park 17:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold coast Martin. Do you run a signal service? If so. how can i subscribe?

GER ad 17:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Out at 1.3015

sg kan 17:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold coast martin
Thanks for your great calls on short euro, aud and gbp.

gold coast martin 17:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
FWIW,,CLOSED all euro shorts from last post as well as gbp shorts...out of aud shorts as well,,,,,,still have yen long......g/t

gold coast martin 17:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
FWIW,,CLOSED all euro shorts from last post as well as gbp shorts...out of aud shorts as well,,,,,,still have yen long......g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 17:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
USD/CAD : Weekly Cycle Barriers


... // 1.2202 - 1.2220 - 1.2249 - 1.2272 - 1.2307 - 1.2342 - 1.2365 - 1.2394 // ...

Surabaya Medallion 17:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Buy Euro now, great chance to hit 1.333 as we are entering peaceful weeks before NFP. Don't forget the stop loss. :p

Amman Fakhtani 17:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
hi neighbour, also same question
Chicago Irish 17:35 GMT January 19, 2005
wfakhoury.........what's your stop on Euro please?

Dallas GEP 17:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Ok closed rest of Assie shorts flat on Aussie. Long again on Euro

NYC 17:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury - is your system to trade houyrly bar to bar with no stop loss and no profit target? Tell us what your avg gain or loss is on your system trades.

Chicago Irish 17:35 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury.........what's your stop on Euro please?

Hong Kong Qindex 17:35 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
One can easily see the correlation between GBP/JPY 191.52 and GBP/USD 1.8702 later.


Hong Kong Qindex 05:54 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.8803} ... // 189.03* - 189.53 - 190.02 - {190.52} - 191.02 - 191.52 - 192.02* // ... {193.02} ...




Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8308* - 1.8374 // {1.8439} - 1.8505 - 1.8571* - 1.8637 - {1.8702} - 1.8768 - 1.8834* - 1.8899 - {1.8964} // 1.9030 - 1.9096* ...

Amman wfakhoury 17:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Manchester Daniel
I mentionted the raise was 130 pips...but the profit
obtained should be less. as the third bar opened
@ 1.8707 and i asked my subscibers to close @18790.

London Iain 17:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Fully long cable again and eur. stop on cable at 1.8640 and eur at 1.2965.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Spot Gold : It is negative when the market is trading below 422.

nyc jk 17:26 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I just lit up a cigar, looks like gonna be awhile before this $/CAD position turns in the black.........

Chicago Irish 17:24 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
cb: beware of smoke signals,it might be a fire in the building and not a cigarette.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:00 GMT January 18, 2005
Spot Gold : If the market can penetrate through 417.5, the next targeting level is 412.8 - 413.9. A projected resistant barrier has been established at 422.2 - 423.7.

dc CB 17:21 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
er...how many packs of cigs should I smoke??????????????

GER ad 17:19 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Long EUR/USD at 1.3014 S/L under 1.2975

Hong Kong Qindex 17:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
It seems to me that GBP/USD is following the movement of GBP/JPY for the last 24 hours.

Chicago Irish 17:15 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Not bashing either....just happen to believe that one must know risk before placing a trade but Amman hasn't answered so unless risk can be quantified hard to ascertain value of system

Gen dk 17:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Not bashing anyone at all, not in any way. Only offering my opinion, I don't see Euro climbing or $chf selling off yet at all. I did note $chf congestion in the 1830 area from prior sessions and closed a long there but it is still bid. May need a a little more time for eur and chf to change bias.

Manchester Daniel 17:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Andras - yes, I understood exactly what you were saying.

It is also very nice that Wfakhoury takes the time to post his signals for anyone who wishes to use them.

I would just like him to clarify how he gets his pip count. Also, as you rightly point out, one must subtract from the win the loss one would have made this morning.

Overall, one would still have made profit, so well done Wfakhoury

Hong Kong Qindex 17:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bris TW 17:08 GMT - You are welcome. One must study the monthly and quarterly cycle in order to have a general picture of the market movement.

Bris TW 17:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:48 GMT January 19

Thanks for posting some daily levels on your page that I asked for last week.

Pecs Andras 17:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Daniel
That is what I was trying to point out. You do not need to be 100 percent correct (you cannot, I guess) but you can still make good money.

Manchester Daniel 17:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:19 GMT January 19, 2005
Pecs Andras ,
ckeck again my signal on GBP/USD it makes
130 pips...may be you are confused with someone else


Could you please explain to the forum how your buy signal at 18700 (confirmed after 2, 15 minute candles) would make 130 pips today.

Your signal was good and definitely anyone who followed would have made some pips, but no where near 130 pips.

If one must wait for 2 confirming candles on 15 min chart, then entry could not have been at 1.8700. Also, the 130 pips assumes that one closes the position more or less at the top.

If I am not understanding your signal correctly then please explain how one should use the signal.

Chicago Irish 17:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman....what's your stop level?

Chicago Irish 17:02 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
OK Amman so at 1.3026 you are long

Antwerp Tom 17:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
B747 16:30 GMT As it is, if 1.3000 level not taken today (NY close) bottoming out in the make and next euro move is up imho GL GT

Amman wfakhoury 16:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD will rise this hour

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
cad allow some time before short
1.2340 area seems OK

Hong Kong Qindex 16:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is likely that the market is vibrating around the quantized level at 1.8702 with an expected magnitude of 1.8571 - 1.8834.


Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8308* - 1.8374 // {1.8439} - 1.8505 - 1.8571* - 1.8637 - {1.8702} - 1.8768 - 1.8834* - 1.8899 - {1.8964} // 1.9030 - 1.9096* ...

Buenos Aires NJP 16:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury. I am interested in yours signals.
My Email is jpizarro@eternet.cc

seoul kkk 16:46 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
It all depends on eur/jpy at the moment and it's still holding 133.3-4 support. I sold the pair almost everyday this year and I finally feel fatigue..

minneapolis 16:43 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury. My Email is Lehare@msn.com

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Euro/GBP highly recommened for 0.7020

Amman wfakhoury 16:39 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
minneapolis 16:28 GMT January 19, 2005
Amman w.fakhoury. How can i recieve your signals?

give your email, and i will send it to you.

Surabaya Medallion 16:34 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Take position with GBP at 1.8747. Target 1.9035. Stop loss 1.865

GER ad 16:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/GBP long,
Closed 1/2 at 0.6953 S/L for the rest moved at cost

GOES B747 16:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 16:24 GMT // the real forces (i.e bc and his team) will go EUR bull soon, they are after the 1.29 for the moment; for a moment I say that maybe better to let get the 1.29 to bring us to ++1.36 ... but then I change my mind and would like to see bc and the team changing their mind from 1.29 to 1.3030 ... now ... but sharks has their agenda.

gt

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
once again I feel must say sorry for my second joke :if you are smoker..and have drunk your coffee..maybe forget to burn you ciggarete..LOL , maybe still bussy look usd/cad drop now?

Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
WEll Tom, I could VERY well be wrong. I thought when I took the traded that we might see as much as 1.3060 out of it again but then a SHORT again. Looks like I bailed out too early.

minneapolis 16:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman w.fakhoury. How can i recieve your signals?

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:21///why'dja get out? good idea...good bounce gt

Pecs Andras 16:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:19 GMT January 19, 2005
My post was not meant as critcism. Your morning call was "sell below 8655" confirmed by 2 bars. The second part was "buy above 8700".The buy was a great winning call, no question about that. You do not have to have all your calls correct. If you trade a pair of calls like this with proper money management (say a 35 pip stop) you can win a lot.
Hope there is no misunderstanding between us, as I greatly appreciate your posts. GL

Dallas GEP 16:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Closed half of Aussie shorts. Other half, stop is a BE. Looking for 7580.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:26 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
please focuse for usd/cad about 2206 again after touched 2296.

Antwerp Tom 16:24 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GEP ...and i already got excited seeing you long the EUR...LOL

Gen dk 16:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 16:22 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I guess bc is waiting for us at 1.29 through this month.

Dallas GEP 16:21 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Closed euro longs 1.3028....having second thought about longing EURO.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:20 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
just a joke..
if you are smoker.. and have taken sell possition please take your ciggarete with a cup off coffee and wait usd/cad drop.
lets toast !! :-)

Amman wfakhoury 16:19 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras ,
ckeck again my signal on GBP/USD it makes
130 pips...may be you are confused with someone else

Surabaya Medallion 16:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I think this will work. Long EUR/USD @ 1.2990. Stops : 1.2890. Target : 1.3330

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
closed all euro shorts and longed at 1.3023 with stop at 1.3010

GER ad 16:15 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:11 ,
I am with you, long EUR/GBP at 0.6943

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/CHF short

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
sorry with my comment too "over confidence".
ready for sell more usd/cad here? at arround 2280-96

Eilat Dolphin 16:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Sexydane just flashed that Goldman thinks that the $ is loosing steam gainst the £ and the CHF.

Looking at the dailies, I don't tink so. I only see some necessary/sane/normal attempts to slow down the skis.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:20 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CAD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.1921}* // 1.2008 - 1.2095* - {1.2182} - 1.2269* - 1.2356 // {1.2443}* ...

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 16:02 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
lets go usd/cad go down !!! 1.2280 is enough top.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
be carefull with usd/cad when touch 1.2280, maybe big sell come from there !!!!
interesting chance.

Eilat Dolphin 15:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Wfakhoury 15:47/ Ouakha Ma'alem !

Amman wfakhoury 15:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD still in downtrend this hour too

Tallinn viies 15:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 15:48 - pure luck, nothing else!

San Diego bobl 15:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...
trading platform has been down with internet issues, however...

I was stopped out of dollar longs against eur, chf, and aud overnight...was approximately 50-60 pips in money, then stopped out for 40-50 losers in all three.

My system has total mixed bag on signals; no confluence and symmetry whatsoever; weekly buys and daily sells with 2-hr charts bullish/bearish. Support/resistance back and forth. Not my cup of tea in here, so I am flat waiting for next opportunity when I can see things more clearly.

Eilat Dolphin 15:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury/ I trust you could, but then the risk augments exponentially to exposure, as you know.

My operations in fx are as a complex hobby, a very dynamic one, which is what we like ( with the profits). More vivid than chess and more complicated and implicating too.

Philosophically, I think that fx for me remains locked as an "aleatory future results system", which is why I would not accept (and have refused till now), to invest friends/other people's monies. And possibly also because I am not an fx prophet like some around here...

Pecs Andras 15:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:47 GMT January 19, 2005
Well, your first cable call (short) this morning was not good, but overall your calls are truly impressive. GT

UK Daniel 15:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
All Amman wfakhoury calls that I have seen have been 100% correct - if you have traded them you would know - which I have!

Gen dk 15:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 15:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:11 GMT January 18, 2005
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : ............................ The neutral zone is 1.2987 - 1.3153 and the mid-point reference is 1.3070. ...........................(Suggestion : Assume a range trading until the market is trading outside the neutral zone. Maintain a short position when the market is trading below 1.2945)

GOES B747 15:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
viies, hats off for your EUR shorts reading; you look like one of the few able to eat the whole candy but still to keep it untouched ... hats off !!!

gt

Amman wfakhoury 15:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin
all calls posted in this forum since 2 weeks are correct

Hong Kong Qindex 15:46 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras 15:42 GMT - Thank you for your compliment. There is much more information in my page which is very good for position traders.

London Iain 15:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 15:42 GMT January 19, 2005
stopped at profit in all eurusd. have also taken some cable off the table. Alternate count that i'm working with is that we may still go to one marginal new low on eurusd and cable. This, though, is still not my favoured view and i'm still bullish overall, but just a little more cautious after this fairly steep sell-off.

GOES B747 15:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Spotforex NY 15:44 GMT // sure, it is not mouse 'clicking' job :-)

Pecs Andras 15:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Sorry, I meant "projected top"

Spotforex NY 15:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I can see the downside to the N.K. trade....may not get out alive...or $1 mio confederate US.

London Iain 15:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
stopped at profit in all eurusd. have also taken some cable off the table. Alternate count that i'm

Pecs Andras 15:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:40 GMT January 19, 2005
Hats off to you again. Your GBP/YEN projected stop was nailed to the pip!
Hope your aussie target will also be reached. GT

Spotforex NY 15:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
it is all about risk/reward.

what is the downside on that $1 mio 'investment'????

what leverage????
10x? 100X??? 400 times??????

Eilat Dolphin 15:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury/ Yes it looks like it. Your ROC (rate of success) on the hourlies is very high. I didn't do the math, but 66% (from memory scan) seems conservative.
That's 2 to 1. Impressive.

Do you have statistics on your hourly calls ?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:41 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Once the market retreats below 0.7618 I would assume that the short term target is at least 0.7565.

GOES B747 15:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:38 GMT // you also can buy $1M for .5M in major N-Korean embassies worldwide.

source: BBC's Panaroma

gt all

Hong Kong Qindex 15:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.7644 is the mid-point reference of 0.7565 - 0.7723. Once the market retreats below 0.7618 I assume that the short term target is at least 0.7565.


Hong Kong Qindex 09:31 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.7408}* // 0.7434 - 0.7461 - 0.7487 - 0.7513* - 0.7539 - {0.7565} - 0.7592 - 0.7618 - 0.7644 - 0.7671 - 0.7697 // {0.7723}* ...

Amman wfakhoury 15:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin
Just bring 1 million $ and I can double it in 2 months

Tallinn viies 15:37 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
covered other half of euro short at 1,3036 fwiw
SQ now and ready to look for new opportunities :)
cheers

Hong Kong Qindex 15:34 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the mid-point reference of 186.30 - 192.90 is 189.60.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:33 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The following is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 09:09 GMT January 17, 2005
Hong Kong Qindex 14:15 GMT January 16, 2005
GBP/JPY : A projected resistant point is positioning at 192.90 and a projected supporting level is expected at 186.30 - 187.12.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:31 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
aus/cad short target 91 for now

Gen dk 15:31 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Amman wfakhoury 15:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin...
you think so...
anyhow ..I am looking for a business partner

Eilat Dolphin 15:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
wfakhoury/ So you did find that Aladin Lamp that Indiana Jones couldn't catch in Petra...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:22 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 03:22 GMT January 17, 2005
EUR/USD : A projected supporting barrier is expected at 1.3039 - 1.3059 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.3131 - 1.3138. The odds are in favour of taking short position and the short term target is 1.2981.

Amman wfakhoury 15:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
RG
thks alot

Gen dk 15:15 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I Would not be shocked if Cable/yen goes back to 189 area

Jkt Rick 15:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Euro usd 1.3050// for easy money buy 1 million eur at market target 1.3180 gl n gt.

Brasov RG 15:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury // You're simply the best!

GOES B747 15:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
just got signal, tomorrow's EUR high will be higher than today's.

gt all

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 15:07 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
friends.. usd/cad have done at 2270, I am worry will get selling pressure there. maybe better exit your long posiition before.

Gen dk 15:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 15:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:04 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Barriers


... // 1.2987 - 1.3042 - 1.3070 - 1.3090 - 1.3138 // ...


The mid-point reference of 1.3042 - 1.3070 and 1.3090 - 1.3138 is 1.3056 and 1.3114 respectively.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
cable might make noise dive into 1.85

van Gecko 15:02 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 14:30.. you may be right.. 1.33/35 are good SOB/BOB zones for both bears & bulls if seen.. cheers

Calcutta Vikram 15:01 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh....thanks for your mail. Got it. Shall be looking at your site. Cheers

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
short cable and cable/yen
Target 1.86 and 190

Amman wfakhoury 14:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/usd will move down during this hour

Gen dk 14:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 14:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:47 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.5317* // {1.5346} - 1.5375 - 1.5405 - {1.5434}* - 1.5464 - 1.5493 - {1.5523} // 1.5552* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 14:23 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/GBP : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.6901} // 0.6921 - 0.6940* - 0.6959 - 0.6978 - 0.6998 - 0.7017* - 0.7037 // {0.7056} ...



Hong Kong Qindex 12:20 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CAD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.1921}* // 1.2008 - 1.2095* - {1.2182} - 1.2269* - 1.2356 // {1.2443}* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 11:29 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.1540 // {1.1601} - 1.1662 - 1.1722 - 1.1783 - {1.1843} - 1.1904 - 1.1964* - 1.2025 - {1.2085} // 1.2146 ...



Hong Kong Qindex 10:47 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {100.15} - 100.66 - 101.17* - 101.69 - {102.20} - 102.72 - 103.23* - 103.75 // {104.26} ...



Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantizd Levels


... 1.2612 // {1.2678} -1.2713 - 1.2808* - 1.2874 - {1.2938} - 1.3004 - 1.3069* - 1.3134 - {1.3199} // 1.3264 ...



Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8308* - 1.8374 // {1.8439} - 1.8505 - 1.8571* - 1.8637 - {1.8702} - 1.8768 - 1.8834* - 1.8899 - {1.8964} // 1.9030 - 1.9096* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 09:31 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.7408}* // 0.7434 - 0.7461 - 0.7487 - 0.7513* - 0.7539 - {0.7565} - 0.7592 - 0.7618 - 0.7644 - 0.7671 - 0.7697 // {0.7723}* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 129.75* ... 130.81 - 131.34 // {131.86}* - 132.39 - {132.92} - 133.45 - {133.98}* // 134.51 - 135.04 ... 136.09* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 05:54 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.8803} ... // 189.03* - 189.53 - 190.02 - {190.52} - 191.02 - 191.52 - 192.02* // ... {193.02} ...



Hong Kong Qindex 16:44 GMT January 18, 2005
Spot Gold : Quantized levels of Weekly Cycle


... 395.1* - 400.5 - 405.9 - 411.5 // 416.8* - 422.3 - {427.6} - 433.1 - 438.5 // 443.9 - 449.3 - 454.7 - 460.1* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 14:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at jay@global-view.com if you have no access to my page.

Jkt Rick 14:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Jkt Rick 05:47 GMT January 18, 2005
Dollar is about to undergo correction against euro/ gbp and aud, but not against yen imho. yen [102.6] strength should be limited to 102/101.60.
For now Eur usd 1.3035 target 1.318



13118 had come and now wait for 1.318, watch yen at mentioned supports yesterday.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 14:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I hope you get nice reaction from gbp/usd when touch 8826 like I posted here before.

toronto js 14:37 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
hello everyone! well any signals?

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko 14:23 GMT///with Jan almost gone - better chance of classic head and shoulder (daily plus) unfolding bringing 5-10 session move to 3500 area beore your chapter gets read. gt

Gen dk 14:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 14:17 ///75...85 the floor is a little slippery - am surprised to see what may be a sentiment change - thought it E/$ would be at 3020 after U.S. news. Now looking for confirmation of new support levels and skyward for resitance. gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:23 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/GBP : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.6901} // 0.6921 - 0.6940* - 0.6959 - 0.6978 - 0.6998 - 0.7017* - 0.7037 // {0.7056} ...

van Gecko 14:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48.. its just a part of the on going risk tranfer between bulls & bears..
after giving back 2 months of gains in 2 weeks, its will be a welcome repreive for the bulls should euro consolidate between 1.3350/1.2950 near term before the next m/t leg down to 1.25..
gl..

Calcutta Vikram 14:19 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks, nh....will do, and will reply. Much obliged

Eilat Dolphin 14:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Ricochet in my face :^((

Livingston nh 14:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Vik - check info email at your consultancy

Eilat Dolphin 14:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Ricochet or better, that should read...

Eilat Dolphin 14:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I expect the E to ricochet on the 85 pip-line like a safety net for the next few hours.
Just watching the E unwind its aching muscles. Some.

GOES B747 14:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
will not long the $ now as position longer than 2-4HRS; Iraq, deficit and US economy telling us another story ... Iraqi elections will keep people at home as it may save their lives.
Iran & Syria are trouble from one hand while Turkey noises about the US proposal regarding the Kurdish issue; terrorists control Iraq. US and other forces must reach 2M men force to get things going towards the right track in Iraq.
As there is no chance on earth to reach this force levels; Iraq is worst than Vietnam ... may noise demands for US to leave Iraq, but then problem starts as Iraqi oil will fund war against USA within USA ... hope that I am very wrong.

all a.m. is based on reading various sites (Debka and it's kind), with additional interviews with Iraqis among some TV channels; documentary style progs.

peace to all !!!

Eilat Dolphin 14:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
CK, nh/ Thanks, I couldn't have said it as well.

Jhb cd 14:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Martin, the following is a question in all honesty, not criticism and definitely not sarcasm, I'm just trying to understand your trading/risk management methodology.

A few posts back you put the stop on aus at 7635 odd. That was taken out. You then advised that 7650 should hold. On my platform that was taken out (albeit barely) on the hourly. You now advise a short with stop at 7668. Now, would you have had different trades that stop out each time, or do you keep moving back the stop?

Just to note that I don't trade on your remarks but use them as confirmation/contrary indications for my own system.

gold coast martin 13:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
fwiw..also...short NZD....7051....STOP...7081....T/P..6956...

Calcutta Vikram 13:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Livingston nh....thanks....I need to read more on this/ discuss this in order to understand better. Can I do it via e-mail? Is it OK to ask Jay for your e-mail. Thks

gold coast martin 13:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
FWIW.....SHORT euro..13114..stop....13137.....t/p 13008.....
short gbp....18821.....stop ..18868....t/p 18729......

short ..aud.....7645.......stop ...7668...t/p..7542.......
LONG YEN@10222..STOP...10183...T/P 10278..Initially

g/t to every one,,,,,,,

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
van Gecko 13:18///you think maybe more than dead cat when all U.S. news is flat to positive and the $ still getting whacked. tech on futures charts are disparate - where is your2-3 day resisance on E/$? tia gt

Livingston nh 13:46 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Vikram - the current account deficit today is qualitatively different than the figures of the '80s -- take out the part of the trade deficit paid for in dollars (oil) and the outssourcing advantage of globalization // its like the TIC data yesterday based on old thinking

Dublin CK 13:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram

From an accountants perspective.

US subsidairy profits abroad are included on a consolidated basis. If the subsidairy trades in another currency other than dollar it is translated at the period end date and included in the accounts of the parent company on consolidation of the group.

In other words although the money/profit is held abroad it is accounted for in the US. The money/profit is not actually physically changed into dollars, unless a physical payment is made For example dividends, intercompany exchanges etc.

Calcutta Vikram 13:44 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thks, Dolphin.....could you tell me a little more about this "profit-rapatriation-undertax-law"

If this line of thought is basically right, then does it not reduce the potency of the whole logic behind Dollar's fall over the last few months?

Eilat Dolphin 13:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Vikram/ You are basically right, as these are pockets of the same pants.
Remember that profit-rapatriation-undertax-law in the US pipes since the fall ?
It enlightens the phenomenon even more.

Calcutta Vikram 13:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hi Friends....a thought occurred, perhaps you'd like to share your opinions on this.....

We've all heard of the huge twin deficits of the USA. Have we also considered the amount of overseas profits earned by US firms (a quick Net search estimates it at $300 bln p.a., which could halve the Trade Deficit) and the market value of overseas assets owned by the USA? Would it be correct to set that off against the debt owed by the USA to the world?
Is it correct economics/ accounting to do this? Or am I just way, way off?

Any thoughts, please? TIA

Croatia mc 13:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
so now we r nowhere! not good lvl for buying neither for selling. but what do u expect by the 4 pm GMT??

van Gecko 13:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
market flow since the start of the year had been consistent & dollar positive with the dollar up nearly 400 basis points so far.. intraday pip noise ampitudes for this period in question are no different from any other market periods in the past.. dead cat bounces to daily & weekly channels are part of fx life and must be accepted in any m/t moves.. but then again, some of us will always get excited by any bounce.. fwiw..

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eur range 1.3150 to 1.2960

GOES B747 13:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips // sell 1.90-1.191 buy 1.85-1.86; E/$ 1.28-1.29 is buy (also cable when EUR prints) and 1.36-1.37 is sell (same for cable); actually my calls are the same as days ago; nothing changed; just blow from Iraq and deficit gets closer and closer.

gt

Croatia mc 13:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
going to break 1,31 by the end of EUR day or??

Croatia mc 13:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
hihih what about EURUSD

GOES B747 13:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:54 GMT // dreaming is OK, maybe one day you will get BW10P day :-)

move is up, but I am sure you did not take this trade to keep for 2-3 months; then I would suggest 1.75

gt

Halifax CB 12:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I'm definitely staying out of this until after the 13:30 releases. FWIW, we should now be in the endgame of the EURUSD 4 Week Down rule (having most likely set the high for the follow on period last week), which means that statistically we should be breaching a significantly lower point (below 1.29?) between now and the end of next week. (not too precise, but I'm in a rush. Sorry).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 12:42 GMT January 19, 2005
1.8480 area maybe?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:53 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GOES B747 12:42 GMT January 19, 2005
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:40 GMT // be careful @ 1.8765/70 with cable shorts.
gt

Thanks I relize this level
...say it droped further then 1.8765...what is Your long level?
TIA

Bris RR 12:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Be careful regarding the view that the current USD rally is corrective. I believe there has been a change in official rhetoric from both US Treasury Fed and ECB officials .The USD sell off has gone far enough against European and commodity currencies and further USD weakness will be met with resistance particularly in a slowing global environment.Asia is in the spot light and further USD wakneness against Asia is in MHO the only route for the bearish USD view to go

london 12:43 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
BALTIMORE (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies said Tuesday that the Fed's interest rate target has yet to rise to a level that would support sustainable long-term economic growth and moderate inflation.

Following remarks to a financial industry group, Bies told reporters that economic indicators will play a more important role this year about decisions on the pace of the increases to the federal funds rate.

"We know at some point we're going to get closer to what's a long-run sustainable interest rate, and it's above where we are today, but I'm not sure where that neutral rate is," she said. "But as the interest rate rises, we're going to be much more data-dependent than we have been."

GOES B747 12:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:40 GMT // be careful @ 1.8765/70 with cable shorts.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Not sure why I did short Cable and wanna long chf
at 1.1745 area...but seems like might do some Profits

Eilat Dolphin 12:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Just in, and I don't see the E folding back down by its own volition before the CPI. Some profit taking at most.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:21 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:20 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CAD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.1921}* // 1.2008 - 1.2095* - {1.2182} - 1.2269* - 1.2356 // {1.2443}* ...

orlando jcr 12:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Any feeling on $Y buy at 102.25?

slv sam 12:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
a bit strange to me...cad is weak.. euro is strong same time...either must be false move!GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
eur/chf is strong

gold coast martin 11:50 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 11:32 GMT January 19, 2005

Cheers IAIN....in this market part profit taking is goood as market presents re-entry levels again at more frequent intervals....g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:46 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/CHF shorting around 2.2 for a day too

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:33 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
NZ short here for a day
shorting aussie .7670 area

Hong Kong Qindex 11:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:44 GMT January 18, 2005
Spot Gold : Quantized levels of Weekly Cycle


... 395.1* - 400.5 - 405.9 - 411.5 // 416.8* - 422.3 - {427.6} - 433.1 - 438.5 // 443.9 - 449.3 - 454.7 - 460.1* ...

London Iain 11:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
couldn't agree more martin. i'm on the other side on this one, but have stops in money now. I agree that this usd weakness is corrective and, therefore, very difficult to trade (as can be seen by varying views on FF)..it could easily go either way here. My favoured view is for more direct weakness, but i wouldn't be surprised to see strength followed by a bigger bout of weakness to take cable and eurusd to my highlighted targets higher up.

either way, as i think we know, trading the market well is as (if not more) important than getting the actual calls right. gt's mate.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 11:29 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.1540 // {1.1601} - 1.1662 - 1.1722 - 1.1783 - {1.1843} - 1.1904 - 1.1964* - 1.2025 - {1.2085} // 1.2146 ...

hong kong nt 11:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
AUD -- intraday supp 7595..FWIW..

gold coast martin 11:10 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
STUBBS.....when cable breaches 18884 level,,,,,,it will see 18977.........but this market IS SO FULL of stops and start which will persist for the rest od the 1stQ...SO A MEDIUM TERM SCENARIO BEYOND 7 days on the cable is impossible to form with confidence,,,,,,,we are just as liable to see cable to 18588 levels in 2 days,,so that is the reason,,too much liquidity or lack of it,,,flows are not steady....very static producing swings in either direction,,,,,hope you positioned welll;;;;;g/t

sg kan 11:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast martin,
many thanks for your post on sterling.

hong kong nt 11:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP may need some healthy consolidation, 1.9000/25 upside now flashes on the radar..

jakarta wd 11:05 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 10:57 GMT January 19, 2005

thank a lot.....raden mas..........

manila stubbs 11:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 10:51 GMT January 19, 2005

we seem to have different views this time around. at what level would you change your mind, reassess, and perhaps reverse? TIA GT

Roumeli anka 11:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Re cable... if we assume eurgbp has a fair target at 0.69, the daily trendline and gbpjpy is headed at above 203 as Dublin CK mentioned, then cable has room to the upside in mid term.
As for short term the levels posted by experts could work.

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 10:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
jakarta wd 10:48 GMT January 19, 2005
small prob about 86xx. I think from 8826 or 8863, maximal 8897. I redict only get 8755.

gold coast martin 10:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
sg kan 10:29 GMT January 19, 2005

Stilll looking for 18818 to produce a reversal to 18712 initially...stops 18851...


AND LONDON TONY,,,,,,Just learn to be patient and constructive with your remaks,,,,,,,there are people here who have had 20 years worth of patience,,,,,and are still here,,,a 2 hour patient cycle will make you a statistic,,,,,

anyway,,,,,,,13098 hold,,,,,target still 13008-12......aussie target still 7542.....stop at 765o.....g/t

jakarta wd 10:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 10:36 GMT January 19, 2005
pls focuse gbp/usd at 8826 or 8840

???? how about tonight mas raden ? dn again till 86...?

thanks 4 ur view.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:47 GMT January 19, 2005
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {100.15} - 100.66 - 101.17* - 101.69 - {102.20} - 102.72 - 103.23* - 103.75 // {104.26} ...

london tony 10:37 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
they all are bussy
licking their wounds

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 10:36 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I hope today is good day for you.
pls focuse gbp/usd at 8826 or 8840

sg kan 10:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hi Gold Coast Martin/ Dallas GEP/Tallin Viies
What's your call on sterling for US session today? TIA

london aa 10:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac
Many thanks

Haifa ac 10:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
london aa 10:19 GMT // We just finished 21 days of this correction and 190+ is 50% correction. I wish you good luck in your shorts.

Manchester Daniel 10:21 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trendlines of interest:

Eur/$ 1.3494 (4 jan 5:00gmt) high to 1.3291 (12 jan 16:00gmt) high - projects to 1.3143


$/CHF 1.1442 (4 jan 6:00 gmt) low to 1.1626 (12 jan 16:00gmt) low - projects to 1.1762


GBP/$ 1.9081 (4 jan 5:00 gmt) high to 1.8936 (12 jan 15:00) high - projects to 1.8834

london aa 10:19 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Haifa ac
I just doubled up at 1.8792
I want to have a higher average

Haifa ac 10:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
london aa 10:08
I'm a nervous Cable short.// Hope you have a stop loss.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantizd Levels


... 1.2612 // {1.2678} -1.2713 - 1.2808* - 1.2874 - {1.2938} - 1.3004 - 1.3069* - 1.3134 - {1.3199} // 1.3264 ...

london aa 10:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
London Iain
Haifa ac
Thanks for the comments
I'm a nervous Cable short.

Makati Obelix 10:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Dr Q, was thinking about that based on your weekly level.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Makati Obelix 09:52 GMT - Allow 30 pips stop.

Gen dk 10:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa ac 09:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
london aa 09:42 GMT January 19, 2005
Why is Cable losing upward traction?
Any ideas?// Looks like it is holding fine.

melbourne farmacia 09:55 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Roumeli anka 09:18 GMT - I have daily rebound points at 1.8763 & 1.8844.. but expecting this current fib ( 1.8778 ) to hold for now as in euro 1.3108 fib..GT

Makati Obelix 09:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dr Q, you recommending a short near the 1.8834 level?

amman R.G 09:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
London Iain ....

my opinion ..... i need to see acorrection tpward 1.8720 b4 the bull on cable continu to 1.8842

London Iain 09:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
it's gone up a cent and a half in two hours.. not a bad move in 2 hours. consolidation and then higher my preferred call.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:46 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8308* - 1.8374 // {1.8439} - 1.8505 - 1.8571* - 1.8637 - {1.8702} - 1.8768 - 1.8834* - 1.8899 - {1.8964} // 1.9030 - 1.9096* ...

london aa 09:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
UK employment figs look strong
Why is Cable losing upward traction?
Any ideas?

Bcn FXstreet.com 09:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil attmpted the $50 level in yesterday’s session, but being unable to reach it, it slipped back down to the low $48’s. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered ground closing around 10.630, providing the 10.500 level a tough one to break, at least for the moment.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3090 level. While the picture remains the same on a daily basis, both on the 1hr and the 4hr charts we were alerted in advance of this upmove by the single currency. Curious to me is that this upmove alert came just when the EUR hit what I still see as the neckline of a daily head & shoulders formation, providing the pair with some extra strength to recover territory against the USD. The greenback, however, and despite its good technical tone since the beginning of 2005, has not yet clearly shown signs of real fundamental strength to confirm the technical outlook. Indicators watch level-2 provided a good warning that the current downmove could be halted at least for a while.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2493. The pair is still holding below its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, and today they are less than 55 pips one to each other, so we’ll keep an eye on a possible cross soon, one must keep an eye on them for reference.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8760 level. “However, a retracement can’t be ruled out now according to indicators watch – level 2, which show signs of strength at the moment.” This was said in yesterday’s report, and, enforced by 1hr and 4hr umove signals, provided to be the right move for the british pound. Though I’m inclined for some time now, as you may know, to the bearish view on the GBP, unless it clearly breaks key resistance levels, and watching the short moving average on the cross down the mid-term one, one must not think moves are due on a straight way fashion. Therefore, the current upmove, though still capped below (at the time of this writing) by the strong 1.8750/60 resistance, has to be considered as that “part of the game” where short term timeframes dictate their own rules awaiting the next daily-based big move.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8348. We had yesterday the confirmation of the 20-day moving average crossing the 50-day on the down.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1785 level. After unsuccessfully trying to break and stay above the 1.19 level, the pair has dipped back down below the 1.18 level, following, as its european fellow currencies, the shorter timeframes bearish signals. Moving averages should be taken as major support levels of the current upmove by the pair. Daily picture remains unaltered while price stays and hols above 1.16 level. However, indicators wach-level 2 alerted yesterday of the possible halt on the upmove.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2304. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6980 level. Pair is currently following its indicators’ bearish tone rather than the bullish moving averages cross. In fact, the pair is fighting to hold above its 50-day moving average at this moment, and if it results to be unsuccessful, it could open the door to test the 0.69 level (lower line of the current uptrend channel).
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6805 today. The pair is fighting to stay above its 50-day moving average and it is below the 20-day one. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:31 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:31 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.7408}* // 0.7434 - 0.7461 - 0.7487 - 0.7513* - 0.7539 - {0.7565} - 0.7592 - 0.7618 - 0.7644 - 0.7671 - 0.7697 // {0.7723}* ...

Roumeli anka 09:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
farmacia... do you think 1.8815 as reasonable projected target for cable ?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT January 19, 2005
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {0.7408}* // 0.7434 - 0.7461 - 0.7487 - 0.7513* - 0.7539 - {0.7565} - 0.7592 - 0.7618 - 0.7595 - 0.7671 - 0.7697 // {0.7723}* ...

london aa 09:17 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
UK data in 13 mins (9:30GMT)

Aden PK 09:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Data from U.K. will be out at 09.30GMT that is almost after 14 minutes

london cam 09:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
LA fxnew 09:14 GMT January 19, 2005

In 15 minutes time I believe

GT

Toronto YV 09:15 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
in 15 min

LA fxnew 09:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
any guess when the data is out for cable?
thanks

melbourne farmacia 09:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 08:47 GMT January 19, 2005
One needs to deal with real-time opening flow... not playing ones subjective range pivots.. GT

prague viktor 09:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin....G.day..mate..maybe the mkt is worry from the next war against Iran...G/T

london cam 09:11 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:06 GMT January 19, 2005

bc - I certainly agree. Do you still see EURUSD as a good buy under 1.32 for the M/T?
GT

Singapore FH 09:08 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
shanghai bc, wait for cpi tonight.

uk employment out in 22mins too

Eilat Dolphin 09:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ I stayed flat, momentum scare it was. Still am.

shanghai bc 09:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   

If a massive 81 billion a month inflow cannot lift Dollar,is it not obvious that Dollar has lost a momentum at least for some days .

brisbane wade 09:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
bandages anyone ?

Eilat Dolphin 09:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Afterthought, the move has a basis... The fact that the market held the 1.30 level for almost 24H. As we came out an hour + ago, some people start seeing rainbows up the sky.

Too much Lucky, to many diamonds, too big a sky, and the acid wears down.

Cmon, baby print me 1.3110. Please come hit my Cortez line.

Syd 09:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin this is the problem at the moment , moves like this can frustrate but are to be expected we are in a wide range - I am staying out for now

Gen dk 09:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast martin 08:59 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Jhb cd 08:49 GMT January 19, 2005
STOP AT 7650 SHOULLD hold......g/t

Eilat Dolphin 08:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ And if someone asks why this move, we'll oppose him "why not!"?

Syd 08:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Dollar falling across the board, trader says large dollar sell order going through which is hitting most pairings. European bank trader says a UK clearer has triggered stops in EUR/USD

Hong Kong Qindex 08:50 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT January 19, 2005
EUR/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 129.75* ... 130.81 - 131.34 // {131.86}* - 132.39 - {132.92} - 133.45 - {133.98}* // 134.51 - 135.04 ... 136.09* ...

Jhb cd 08:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
oh dear martin, that aus possie is suffocating badly, no air left to breath, should one euthanise?

Tallinn viies 08:49 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
closed half of the short euro at 1,3089....
resell near 1,3135 area

Budapest Daniel 08:47 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
the sell below gbpusd didnt work very well...

Amman wfakhoury 08:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 05:41 GMT January 19, 2005
My signals for today :

EUR/USD buy above 1.3040 Sell below 1.3010
GBP/USD buy above 1.8700 Sell below 1.8655

Note ;please confirm each level by close of 2 bars b4 your entry
******* GOOD LUCK *******

London Iain 08:38 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Any of you guys got sore fingers yet?

Helsinki iw 08:36 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD chart displays some bottoming action at the moment, so the move lower may have ended, temporarily at least. Resistance right here at 1,3070/80, next at 1,3180/90.
A break below yesterdays lows would mean a test towards 1,2915/25 and a break there could mean a move closer to 1,25. Intraday charts are bullish for now, however. IMHO

GOES B747 08:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
good morning all,

just having the second (and last!) double S.-American black booster for the day; EUR prices is the issue within the black hole between the ears.
just ask myself why everybody mention deficit with amount, will the truth come better out when say "total imports to USA are more than one and a half times as large as exports."

again, "total imports to USA are more than one and a half times as large as exports."

gt all

denver mike 08:31 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
also, did anyone see opening pivot and that both S1 and S2 were same? do i just have my head in the clouds or something or is that normal with a corrective bull wave in a bear to have two supports same?
mike

denver mike 08:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
was bearish and didn't get in, whew. shoulda seen it coming, everything said corrective but i wouldn't listen. who thinks this will continue and for how long? anyone measured previous corrective?
mike

Dallas GEP 08:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Shorted Euro and MArket, Shorted Aussie also at market

sonofmekel jakarta 08:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Message from the sky:

Eur/Usd:
the pair more likely to reach sell levels at 3061 ; 3085 ; 3105-3143.
It's recommended to hold your long position

Gbp/Usd:
Da chart will reach sell levels at 8737 ; 8775 - 8788.
If 8788 violated, will hop to 8893.
Longterm pattern is in the pace to reach 4 important selling levels: 9046 ; 9081 - 9101 ; 9124

Usd/Jpy:
Chart pattern is still in an oscilation between 103.01 to 101.65 .
If 101.65 breached, will go to buying levels at 101.32,
If 103.01 violated, will go to selling level at 103.17.
Suggesting to stay sidelined to wait for those levels, or may do some short term trades as long as we are still instide those 103.01-101.65 range.

Usd/Chf:
Chart pattern will go to buying levels at 1757 or 1687.
If 1907 violated, will probably get selling pressure at 1915-1932.
If 1932 vilated, will reach 2094.
If 2094 break, will go for peak target at 2194.
Suggesting for a sideline and wait for critical levels to enter market.

Aud/Usd:
Chart pattern is giving message towards buying levels at 0.7481 or 0.7424.
BUt before dropping to those levels, 0.7875 is ideal level for a point to ride downward.
Wait for those levels to enter market..

Gold:
Chart pattern tends to go to peak levels at 430.40 ; 434.00 ; 438.88.
A huge selling action will emerge from 434.00 or 438.88 levels.
Suggesting to hold long position.

London Iain 08:14 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:56 GMT January 19, 2005

60/40 in favour of breaks higher today i reckon. your strategy works though and one of us wil be right. I favour the upside again though.

for anyone interested. long cable 1.8613 and smaller at 1.8534!! also, long eur at 1.3006. stops on cable at 1.8390 and eur lower today (as necline recedes) @ 1.2965.

Eilat Dolphin 08:12 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ Yes a real drawback, that mouth. However the eyes still save the picture.

Syd 08:09 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Rent a mouth Maria Bartiromo is normally the favourite rather a big mouth though

Eilat Dolphin 08:04 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ Ok she is smart, but very assymetrical by any Viking standard. Tell him to watch Fox news. (watch only, the sound is not needed.)

Haifa ac 08:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eur/ 131.08 should be seen today.

Eilat Dolphin 08:00 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
martin/ Hi! I didn't take short euro position twenty minutes ago around 1.3014 or so, mainly because of your post!

You did the same yesterday at low, with target reached. On time too!

A couple of hundred years ago, you would have been burned, my friend...

Syd 07:58 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin my son has the hots for Louisa

gold coast martin 07:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
also a gbp short @18708 levels that i mentioned this morning is good....res, at 18761.....t/p 18588.....
EURO ...as per this mornings firsr post......short when 1355-60 seen...t/p 13004-08/////res. at 12974.....


YRN LONG AT 10225-32 LEVELS FOR 10275T/P////RES@10187

G/T TO ALL AND CHAT LATER......

Eilat Dolphin 07:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ I agree. CNBC is usually hot air. Only Hubbard is worth listening. Besides that he does have humor, while all the euroies sound like undertakers and none of the chicks is cute.

(Ok, the French one is passable, but then every other word she utters is heu, heu. I can't stant that heu heu!)

gold coast martin 07:52 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
SET stops on aud short @7631....just to give possie room to breathe and develop....g/t...fwiw

Tallinn viies 07:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
from tuesday...
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Germany in 2004 was probably the world's largest exporter yet again, despite the euro's sharp rise on the foreign exchange markets. Preliminary data published Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Office showed
that goods exports surged 10.0% from 2003 to EUR731.0 billion. This translates to almost $1 trillion in exports (EUR1=$1.3040) for all of 2004, making the country the world's largest exporter of goods for the second year running.
The U.S., the world's biggest economy, meanwhile exported about $740 billion worth of goods between January and November. "It's unlikely that the U.S. overtook Germany as the world's biggest exporter in December," Dirk Mohr, who works at the German statistics office's department for foreign trade, told Dow Jones Newswires. As a consequence, the U.S. probably came second in the exporters' league, after being in pole position in the 50-odd years up to 2002. The strong performance of exports has been particularly important to Germany, where foreign demand has served to offset chronically weak domestic consumption, noted Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank Securities. "Germany is basically a two-speed economy," Dixon said. German export group BGA believes the strength in exports will continue, despite the headwinds from a stronger euro and slowing global demand.
"I don't think that export growth could be below 5% in 2005 because of a stronger euro," BGA President Anton Boerner said earlier in January. He sees the euro trading between $1.30 and $1.40, on average, in 2005. Nevertheless, a strong euro - it hit an all-time high of $1.3668 against the dollar on Dec. 30 - has already taken its toll on manufacturing orders, with foreign orders down 1.9% month-on-month in November, after falling 1.2% in October. And despite a recent respite, the euro is widely expected to surpass the $1.40 mark by year-end at the latest, which is likely to hurt exports from the
euro zone. The area's car manufacturers in particular should see their profit margins squeezed during 2005 by fierce competition from Japan.

EUROPE M 07:51 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Bunch of options expiries today in NY cut off time.... 1,3000 , 1,2990 , 1,2970.....

gold coast martin 07:50 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
HI ALL....just a quick note.....short AUD HERE AT 7596LEVEL FOR A 7528 ia a good short like yesterday aud has majore resistance at 7608.....talk later.....c/u////

Syd 07:48 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin agree good analysis for a change, just been watching also Bloomberg Roger Nightingale (Sarcins) he was saying that Trichet has to reduce rates to get Europe moving

Eilat Dolphin 07:45 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Yes, all. And I likes his exposé on the year's end of the E$naconda.
Not that it corroborates my view, since I can't imagine that predictions a year ahead can be stated at more than 51/49% odds, but at least what he said was built and coherent.

He concluded with a 1.15 E$.

Meanwhile, our snake wakes up but keeps an eye on martin's whip...
Some whip!

Syd 07:35 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin did you see all the interview, quite interesting re-Interest rates in the US - totally opposite to what the market is looking for later in the year

Eilat Dolphin 07:33 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Syd/ Hi! He sure was convincing and sharp.

Syd 07:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Traders awaiting speech by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner later in the day, his remarks last week questioned the sustainability of Asia's attempts to keep their currencies weak have added to the yen's recent strength.

"If he makes that kind of comment again, the euro would face even more downward pressure against the yen," said Tohru Sasaki, chief foreign-exchange strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.

The single currency could fall to Y132.00 for the first time since Sept. 8 should comments by Issing and Geithner again indicate that the U.S. and Europe are in the same camp, Sasaki said. Against the yen, the dollar could also break below Monday's low at Y101.67 to mark fresh five-year lows, he said.

With many speculators focused on currency policy issues, rising U.S. interest rates and faster U.S. growth relative to other developed countries haven't been helping the dollar versus the yen, traders said. But against the euro, the greenback has kept a bullish tone.

"People are worried about buying the euro now because its rally seems to have faded" after hitting an all-time high of $1.3661 on Dec. 31, a Japanese trader said. "There's also a sense that European policy-makers want to take the upward pressure off the euro by shifting the debate to Asia."

Some traders caution against selling dollars too much ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President George W. Bush for his second term Thursday, .

"I think people will buy dollars after the inauguration because Bush will repeat his commitment to a strong dollar and a tighter budget," said Toshiaki Kimura, a foreign-exchange trader at Mitsubishi Trust and Banking. D
Dow

Pecs Andras 07:31 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
[07:22 Japan EcoMin Takenaka - Yen Not That High On Real-Basis] Tokyo, Jan 19.
Over the Japanese Jiji wire. Although a bombshell of a statement, the comment is
being ignored for the time being

Aden PK 07:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hi freinds,
What you think of NZD/USD trading range today, I am short from this morning @ 06987with stop at 07025 bid. Gold Coast Martin your comments will be appreciated

Syd 07:20 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin, not sure if you have CNBC foxtel european Squawkbox on at the moment talking USD Karl Weinburg . quite interesting

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/SomeRanges.htm
will be more accurate next week

brisbane wade 07:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
hi there gold coast martin, do you have an email i could have to ask you a couple of questions regarding fx . thanks wade

Amman wfakhoury 06:50 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Pecs Andras
preferable 15 mins chart

Sydney 06:34 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
The Australian dollar's modest gains Wednesday moved it clear of major technical support at US$0.7530, but dealers said the currency looks vulnerable.
US$0.7530 is a one-third Fibonacci retracement of a rally that peaked in November around US$0.7946, and if breached, further sharp losses may be in the offing, dealers said.
"It still looks and feels vulnerable," said Robert Rennie, senior currency strategist at Westpac.News overnight in the U.S. that supported the view the U.S. economy is attracting sufficient offshore investment to fund its ballooning trade deficit was also significant. With trade deficit concerns lower, the focus of traders can return to other upbeat indicators of U.S. growth, keeping the U.S. dollar buoyant.

Singapore Sfx 06:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
tsunami warning issued for area south of tokyo after strong earthquake - reuters quoting nhk

Pecs Andras 06:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 05:41 GMT January 19, 2005
Close of 2 bars on which timeframe/Chart?

gold coast martin 06:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
precious=previous....

gold coast martin 06:27 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...in precious post i forgot to mention thin liquidity which will start to increase one hour before start of euro session....upon which the levels of my first post are relevant...still a choppy day ahead so trade carefully ......g/t

LA fxnew 06:20 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
what a quiet market today...
anybody knows what happen???

Seems like not usual...
Thanks

London aa 05:57 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
"Reports out that Russia suspends debt payments to the Paris Club until February"
I saw this earlier today. Has anyone else heard about this. Is it even true? Would it matter and does it have any potential EUR negative.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:56 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {188.03} ... // 189.03* - 189.53 - 190.02 - {190.52} - 191.02 - 191.52 - 192.02* // ... {193.02} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 05:54 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:54 GMT January 19, 2005
GBP/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... {1.8803} ... // 189.03* - 189.53 - 190.02 - {190.52} - 191.02 - 191.52 - 192.02* // ... {193.02} ...

Amman wfakhoury 05:41 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
My signals for today :

EUR/USD buy above 1.3040 Sell below 1.3010
GBP/USD buy above 1.8700 Sell below 1.8655

Note ;please confirm each level by close of 2 bars b4 your entry
******* GOOD LUCK *******

hong kong nt 05:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Inspiring to read:

http://www.forexnews.com/FI/defaultnew.asp?f=20050117.mgn

Syd 05:26 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   


BAGHDAD (AP)--A car bomb exploded outside the cement blast barriers of the Australian Embassy in central Baghdad on Wednesday, killing two people and wounding four, police and witnesses said.

The blast rocked the capital around 7:00 a.m. (0400 GMT) and was followed about a half hour later by another explosion, which sent a column of black smoke rising above the eastern part of the city.

The second blast was caused by another car bomb that targeted a police station in Baghdad's eastern Elwiyah neighborhood, police Lt. Nateq Ahmed said. He gave no further details.

Officials at the Australian Embassy couldn't immediately be reached.

A policeman on the scene, who refused to give his name, said two people were killed and four were wounded in the embassy attack. He didn't give the nationalities of the victims.

The embassy is located in Baghdad's central Jadiriyah neighborhood.

The blast destroyed the car and left its twisted wreckage in flames.

Auckland 05:22 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
london tony expiration=runs out of date
If you are talking about options- same don't worth any money after exp date

london tony 05:18 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
can any one pliz explain what is expiration?
what u mean by 1.3000 expiration
pliz explain in simple words
tia

London. 05:03 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: Spot EUR/USD Holding Above 1.3000, Large Expiration

Sydney 04:58 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
BEIJING (AFX) - China will take further steps towards making the yuan freely exchangeable with foreign currencies, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, according to the official China Securities Journal

"One consideration to improve the financial services this year is to gradually make the local currency exchangeable," Zhou said at a forum in Beijing

Meanwhile, Zhou said the growth rate in China's foreign exchange reserves in 2004 was "a little bit faster" than the year before, "but not unreasonable"

"Mounting forex reserves have brought about some difficulty in carrying out monetary policy, but has not caused too much difficulty," Zhou said, adding that foreign currency via the capital account is not the main reason for the sharp increase in foreign reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 609.9 bln usd at the end of 2004, up from 403.3 bln usd at the end of 2003

The central banker also denied that hot money is entering China through the capital account

Syd 04:53 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Car Bomb Targets Australia Embassy In Baghdad -Witnesses

Syd :-( 04:25 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Australia's leading indicator of employment declined to 0.305 in January from 0.317 in December, the Department of Employment & Workplace Relations said Wednesday.
The indicator has now fallen for six straight months, largely due to weakness in dwelling approvals and real gross domestic product, the department said. "The recent falls in the series continue to point to the possibility of below-trend employment growth towards the second half of 2005," it said.
DEWR.

Syd 04:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
IMF's Krueger To Hold News Conference

Syd A 04:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Free FX-Risk Calculator available from - www.ForexFlows.com

Toronto Alex 04:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Wiarton Han, Halifax CB and Rio for your input!

I will check the url and see out the book too.

Dallas GEP 02:43 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
AG, Hello my friend....email handle is dallasgep10 at our yahoo.com site.

London. 02:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Fed's Bies: Rates Need To Rise To Sustainable LevelFederal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies said Tuesday that the Fed's interest rate target has yet to rise to a level that would support sustainable long-term economic growth and moderate

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:40 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
With the eur/usd pair the intra-day indicators are still trying to get off the floor with little movement in the market as consolidation continues for the bears here. Daily indicators are still bearish but with a hint of an imminent bounce that is needed for a healthy drive to the key support. Key resistance is around the 3130-40 area while the main resistance is still around the 3290-3300 area. It is still sell on rallies if we get any this week. Peace and GT
Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3030-40, 3070-80, 3100-10, 3130-40, 3170-80, 3210-20, 3250-60, 3280-90, 3310-20, 3340-50 and 3380-3400.
Retracement numbers are 3415-25, 3260-70, 3140-50, 3020-30 and 2865-75
Second wave retracement numbers are 3320-30, 3100-10, 2940-50, 2770-80 and 2555-65 for now key retracement number is 2940-50.
Resistance T/L 3355-65 and 3580-90 Support T/L 3030-40 and 2780-90 for now.
Support is around the 2990-3000, 2930-40, 2890-2900 and 2850-60 for now key support is around the 2890-2900 area IMHO. GL GT

CAIRO AG 02:32 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Hello everyone.. wish you all a nice trading day.

GEP.. U got mail my friend.

NYC PCM 02:29 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Sorry talking about Euro in last post

Los Angeles ss 02:22 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks, GEP. In a small short right now, will see if it can get into the 50.s then decide whether to hold into the London open. Good trades to you.

Dallas GEP 02:16 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
WEll SS I would say 1.8640 to 1.8700 range. I Can't tell at this time howver whether we long or short from here.

NYC PCM 02:13 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
I'm looking for a short term low (will hold for a couple of weeks mabye) to come tomorrow or the next day.

Once we take that low out it will be down into the end of February.

London. 02:06 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Standard Chartered Bank says AUD negatives building on slowing global growth, Fed hints it may accelerate tightening and AUD/USD overvaluation vs long-term averages

Los Angeles ss 02:02 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Gep, any thoughts on cable from here short term?

London. 01:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
LINK
FOREX-Dollar supported vs euro, but losses vs yen seen

Buenos Aires NJP 01:36 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
What happens with the euro ?
Are going up or down ?

Buenos Aires NJP 01:36 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
What happens with the euro ?
Are going up or down ?

London. 01:23 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
IRA Denies Involvement In NAB's Northern Bank Heist

Los Angeles ss 00:43 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Thanks 10 Pips

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:42 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
cable might be OK to keep short Position till US Close Wed
1.87 to 1.8640
then long 1.8480 area for the rest of week

Los Angeles ss 00:30 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Within 10 Pips -- where do you see cable going from this point? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:28 GMT January 19, 2005 Reply   
Long euro/yen