Forex Forum Archive for 11/22/2005

Ldn Delboy 23:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
los angeles ss 23:44 GMT
You see I was right! I could feel the move!

Syd 23:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Copper Falls for 2nd Straight Day as China to Sell From Reserve LINK

Interesting Live talk David Threlkeld President resolved inc Arizona

Farnham SFH 23:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
then think about it..probably HK..

Ldn Delboy 23:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SFH I don't think China has a free FX market yet.

Syd 23:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Markets' dovish interpretation of Nov. 1 FOMC meeting minutes overstated .Fed funds rate reaches lower end of what is considered neutral, it's prudent for FOMC to start thinking about signaling that it may not necessarily be hiking at every meeting and that subsequent moves will be data dependent. But adds this not same thing as saying Fed likely to stop sooner than expected; notes minutes also reiterate view economic outlook remains strong and FOMC clearly sees upside risks to inflation

Morgan Stanley

Farnham SFH 23:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
China?

Ldn Delboy 23:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Does anyone know which market Chinese trade in?
Is it Tokyo or Hong Kong?

los angeles ss 23:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy, yeah and it moved down. Harbinger of a retrace?????

Ldn Delboy 23:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
what happened? why Eur moved 5 pips!

Farnham SFH 23:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Valdez now that we are on talking terms ,would you care to expand on what you meant last week about currency manipulation..if you would prefer to take it to another forum thats cool but I am genuinely interested on your take on that..
tia

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnum, Agree, talking about the actual rate announcements, not these ECB and Fed murmerings.

Y'all, note the pattern for E/$ last couple months..weekly Friday closes up and weekly Friday closes down. It's an up down down, up down down patttern.

Not to make FX too elementary here but last week was a Friday close up. Maybe I'm saying this Friday and subsequent Friday if it follows pattern to be down, down respectively.

Farnham SFH 23:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Actually Val I do not think these guys think about the implications on the FX world neither do I think they should. After all 100 ticks here or there achieves nothing in the big scheme of things as rates tend to find there OWN level....infact gives the little uys like us something to play with..

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:27 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham, of course words, stray words, misinterpreted words, lmost any words DO have effect mkt as we saw in the last 4 trading days. Obviously. Even stupid words or mal interpreted words. Now, we can say this, but really, don't you also feel that there are "excuses" to move currencies...not particularly that words do it, just points where the CBs use words as excuses to move cncy values? I feel this is true, it's my HUMBLE opinion. It isn't a conspiracy, it's just the way things are and will continue to be. Just my take.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:22 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I think the reason the Fed is mealey mouthed - doesn't speak in clear tones is they themselves aren't sure what their position is. Also I'd assume that timing with the electronic money supply and the announcements coincides so as to control things more. The board members have a tough job of doing opinion polls of the Federal Reserve districts, asking the comptrollers what they think of the econ...they go by that + many other things. Therefore it takes them quite an effort to arrive at a decision. Announcement day and only at announcement day of a rate hike..THAT SPEAKS in clear tones. Afterall, until the rate hike announcement, there has to be some mystique aboard to justify $171,900 as Greenspan's salary.

Syd 23:22 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Australian New job figures today with further weakening of the index would serve to dampen expectations of quick recovery in the employment growth

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SFH// we breach 11854 and we touch 11930 but i still think 11854 will cap any challenges since we will have a slow wednesday... so my strategy is to keep selling as close to 11854 as possible for a test of 11576.


BTW i love ya in PF man...even if your one of those mentioned in my post... lol.

Farnham SFH 23:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
valdez
Ok...but I was referring more to the impact on the market from recent staements...Trichet caused a blip and so the the fed...we are still unsure of direction...

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham, at times. Again it's wording interpretation. The variables are these as I see them:
1. Fed percieves rate incr to get USD in line w/other cncys' int. rates...to sell debt...influx of dough derived from sales of US paper lured by nice interest rates. This gets the debt monkey (effects thereof) off Uncle Sam's back for the time being..quick fix but bad present to present following regime. Therefore, the money supply remains stable since interest rates are presumably forming a blockaid to percieved inflation paranoia.
2. Bernie, when takes the chair, will do 1 of two things..continue the hawk or become a dove. It depends on what Greenspan's crew does before he takes the chair. If Greenspan prepares the road with flowers (hikes), then Bernie will likely follow suit as he said he would. AT least til the rate bucket is full and the mission of equalizing rates with world cncy's is accomplished.

ABHA FXS 23:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
DAY RANG 23NOV 05
eurusd 1.1859/1.1700
gbpusd 1.7265/1.7097
usdchf 1.3225/1.3078
usdcad 1.1897/1.1769
audusd 0.7395/0.7308
eurjpy 140.60/139.16
gbpjpy 205.00/203.82
gbpchf 2.2697/2.2533

Farnham SFH 23:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Vald...do you take the comments from the fed seriously/

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I don't think I'd count on a guaranteed short this week on E/$. We do have 3 small possies up here on the high plateau but nothing BIG. If it shorts, we win, if it doesn't, we won't take them out either just because they turn neg...will place more shorts once a "real" top is reached and hedge trade "up" with shorting Swissy, the mirror of E/$. I think the ECB OFFICIAL announcement (not napkin notes found under Tritche's lunch table written on a wet cocktail napkin) is my key to follow the scent trail.

Philadelphia Caba 22:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
thanks guys

Syd 22:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:51 yes

Farnham SFH 22:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   


Philadelphia Caba 22:51 GMT
Yep

Philadelphia Caba 22:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Japanese markets closed today?

Syd 22:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Bernanke Sees Econ Growth Risks From Energy, Housing Mkt
The biggest threats to U.S. economic growth include further sharp energy price rises, a greater effect on general inflation from energy price gains and a disruptive slowdown in the housing market, Ben Bernanke, nominee for Federal Reserve chairman, said in a written response to a senator's query.

The economic outlook is favorable but "ringed with a number of risks," Bernanke, a former Fed governor and current White House economic adviser, said in response to questions for the record from Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky. The senator made the written response public Tuesday.

Longer-term high energy prices will curb energy demand and bring on new energy supplies, Bernanke said.

"In the near term, however, energy prices increases have the potential to spill over into general inflation, sap consumer spending power and damp overall economic activity," Bernanke said. "A further jump in energy prices or a more pronounced reaction to those increases in prices that have already occurred could test the strength of the (economic) expansion."
DJ

Farnham SFH 22:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
e-mail jay..can't post it here

London Leila 22:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
What is it ?

Farnham SFH 22:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Leila..feel free to ask Jay for my e-mail if you like

Syd 22:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
According to the survey, 36% of respondents expressed confidence in the economy, unchanged from the week before. Also, 55% of those polled said their own finances were in good standing, unchanged from the prior week. In assessing the buying climate, 33% of respondents said it was good, up from 32% a week earlier.

London Leila 22:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
very tempted to hedge these positions

Farnham SFH 22:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Cool..

London Leila 22:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
yea closed long positions from 1.7100 area but still holding longs around 1.7370 area

Farnham SFH 22:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Leila
Who knows anything is possible...are you long?

Syd 22:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 22:23 GMT thanks, probably looking at the same, but at the moment , too overbought

Farnham SFH 22:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Leila
W

London Leila 22:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham
tomorow 1.7350, for sterling????

Atlanta South 22:29 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe//tks for that......i'm in the same class. gt

Farnham SFH 22:27 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Only wished I had reacted sooner to the statement after thr=e minutes were released...looking back it was a rare 'fast buck' opportunity..

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:24 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
lol..Breach of 11854 and all the shorts go down in a blaze of glory..

beirut jb 22:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
syd well average 11750 50% fibo of today move, if euro realy strong 11770 would hol,
offcorse this level assume hod hold and euro retrace from here coz so fasr euro doesnt give a sign for retracement

Syd 22:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
NZ Risks "Technical Recession" In 2006- censored

Mtl JP 22:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Syd 21:52 / plz see Futures Forum

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
south// I am just going by upper band 11854 to keep shorting until i get as close to that level as possible, breach of that and it's 11930. but my view will not change until we see 11576.

ABHA FXS 22:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
EUR 11859 CAP
short at 1.1820
target 1.1722/1.1700/1.1662

fxs

Syd 22:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 22:06 GMT what level are you looking to go long Euro thanks

Farnham SFH 22:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
beirut jb 22:06 GMT
Difficult times at moment...chasing a range so far of 1.1660-1.1830...maybe an idea to wait for a breakout...

beirut jb 22:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
euro daily reversed to long ,this signal has 63% odd,
so what now, well i whould buy euro when itraday clear overbot conditions

Syd 22:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
It's a "deeply worrying" sign for NZ economy to see firms' own activity expectations plunge to zero in November's NBNZ business confidence survey, business barometer "has in the past been highly correlated with domestic growth", suggesting economy heading for hard landing in 4Q05 or 1H06. Becoming "progressively wary" of scope for RBNZ policy mistake; says RBNZ likely to become "increasingly nervous" about hiking rates, but it's unlikely to be deterred from a 25bps rise in December
Macquarie economists

Tallinn viies 21:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Goes SpongeBob 19:59 GMT - actually has been here evryday, just been busy during the daytime and too tired later...
also out of sync
now got the moves again and how hips should moves :)

Syd 21:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
DJ Bernanke:More Energy Price Rises Would Be Inflation Risk

Atlanta South 21:53 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe//@ this point do you say things are on course for the sub 1.1700 levels by weeks end? Tks & gt.

Syd 21:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Small-cap stocks extended Monday's gains as investors appeared hopeful that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to ending its cycle of interest-rate increases.
Measures of small-cap stocks rallied soon after minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that some members had concerns about the risks of going too far with the tightening process. The impact of the release of the Federal Reserve minutes was almost immediate, sending the stocks of home builders higher.

The housing market ready to pounce once rate hike cease Just what the Fed want !!

Syd 21:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Bernanke: Potential Energy Price Pass-Through A Concern

Syd 21:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
DJ Bernanke Sees Econ Growth Risks From Energy, Housing Mkt

Gen dk 21:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn Delboy 21:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
all I know is that it was a very stu.pid thing to put in the document!

Mtl JP 21:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
valdez 21:15 / I doubt the FED is concerned with the taxpayer. (remember that your gov't can now turn a plane with u on it back with ease). Rather - and contrary to its oft repeated windbagging about transparency - it is trying to bamboozle forex traders, as traders will have bit of a harder time assessing the value of the reserve currency against especialy its euro counterpart (as that apparently will cease to be reported). Assuming of course that - currentlly at least - usd trades off the expected rates in euro vs usd rates difference.

Syd 21:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Dow..The yen came under pressure overnight, with the U.S. currency lifting to just off the 27-month high it reached last week early in New York. The yen's losses came as investors grow more skeptical as to whether the Bank of Japan will face down pressure from the government and tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy early next year.

The yen wasn't helped by a larger-than-expected decline in Japan's economic activity in September due to weakness in the wholesale and construction sectors. Adding to the yen negatives, influential former Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Eisuke Sakakibara, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview that Japanese monetary authorities aren't worried about the yen's recent downtrend.

Sakakibara said the bank could intervene in the currency market if the U.S. unit shoots up above Y125. However, he predicted Japanese investors will continue to shift money out of the nation in search of higher yields, pushing the dollar above Y120 by year end.

Syd 21:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
December Could Bring Big Moves in the Dollar
LINK

Hong Kong Ahe 21:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:46 GMT November 22, 2005 and valdez 20:20 / M3 is more significant for the study of flow of money and interest rate movement. I remembered in 90s, traders use M3 to predict Fed lower rates or not. But some experts here may correct me as memory going to fade as times fly.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP// YES! Thank you..just stepped back in and saw your post. I stand corrected..slip of the finger..it's M3 they are curtailing, NOT M1 (Sheez I hope not!). Many feel M3 is an important analysis tool and I agree it's useful. To me, the intervention hawk, it's useful to see if el Fed is manipulating things a bit. There are other uses of course for M3 but that's my use for it. It seems to me the Fed's trying to hide things from the taxpayer that will happen in the proximal future.

Toronto MRC 21:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Market is forgeting the Fed decision will depending on inflation not some Fed gov. who is concerned their legacy will be putting the economy into a dip.

Caribbean! Rafe... 21:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SS// also have some belief/confidence in your analysis. i wish you well and others well.

when i was a newbie the elders here mentored me also but now they are gone.

Caribbean! Rafe... 21:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:03 GMT November 22, 2005

i have read your posts, you should be teaching me economics or better yet teaching economist soldiers to push their knowledge beyond their limits.

i appreciate your posts but sometimes they are too educated for me and i am left wondering what they mean ie when lack of common sense invades my mind.

gl gt.

Cleveland Melatonin 21:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I guess maybe eur/usd's a long til around 1.2040, then a short again for the big ride down to new multi-year lows. Just a guess based on chart stuff.

Caribbean! Rafe... 21:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
los angeles ss 19:54 GMT November 22, 2005

don't take my phrase out of context and be offended but try to analyse past moves and look for recurring (not chart but price patterns), like eg. when prices hit a trendline and slide back 20-25 pips means we have firm resistance, you go short there etc.. things like that. i personally hate techs but it's a good starting point. read gann's how to make profits in commodities and explore gann's work a bit if your unsure of how things work sometimes, use gann as a base and try doing some calculations by yourself etc.. sooner or later your going to start feeling confident enough to build a model of your own..

euro's consolidation barrier is 11854 - 11627 +-23 pips since the trend is down you look for failed rallies to the upper barrier to short down. don't worry about knowing direction each day as i will continually keep on posting my projections.. what i do is analyse between swing points so when i say the trend is down you look for rallies to short until the target is met and it's a guaranteed target if my analysis is correct all that is required is patience.

my analysis gives me tops/bottoms and consolidation ranges and i am improving it everyday as ideas come to me out of thin air.

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe... 20:55 / LOL .. u give me way too much credit. rest assured that common sence is the rarer commodity than education.

Goes SpongeBob 20:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
CAD/JPY: currently @ 101.20

chart 1W/10Y shows currently shows:
100SMA @ 86.46
200SMA @ 83.30

other indicator shows someone just to get tired, weekly chart then weeks ahead view, as Valdez suggested to think big :)

safe and happy trading

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:41 GMT November 22, 2005

i am not educated economist or banker like you, but with your help i can get there. i was just using my common sense or lack of it.

gl gt

Vienna GD 20:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Martin ,,, pls, what do you think about todays FOMC minutes???

Ballarat Ron 20:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London CCCUK 20:36 GMT November 22, 2005

if you cut losses / or add more shorts you may find neither will help
it is possible for eur/usd to go up to 1850's and above for a while and then it will come down
guess you gotto decide how to play that
gl gt

Mtl JP 20:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
valdez 20:20 / did you perhaps mean Discontinuance of M3 or is M1 measure now being discontinued too ?!

Syd 20:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 20:20 exactly right , problem is the markets are looking too much into it and as usual coming up with their own answers

dc fxq 20:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Vivid imaginations at work!

Mtl JP 20:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe... 20:23 / sign of a fearful leadership in decline. Think dlr's reserve status may be in play (?)

Farnham SFH 20:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Yes but who would have expected a statement indicating possible end of tightening...

Syd 20:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The end of constructive ambiguity, Mr Trichet?
Traders say that some investors have shed a few of these lesser-rated euro-zone bonds. But few, if any, appear to have taken seriously the worst-case scenario. For those who do change their mind, it is only a matter of time before investment banks design credit derivatives that will pay out if any country slips off the ECB’s approved list. You read it here first.

London CCCUK 20:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
back to the same situation i had yesterday... shall i cut my losses and reverse, or do i add on more short positions here and wait for the retrace? any thoughts..tia gl gt all

Helsinki iw 20:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Another failed attempt at the 1.1580/90 level and supporting daily studies makes me more confident in a weaker dollar from these levels. IMHO.

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
it's called being a police state. anyhows we can rant on PF.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:20 GMT November 22, 2005
When the government has less transparency, more secrecy, coupled w/ more power & more restrictive laws, that's a sign of weekness.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Fed tightening nor ECB tightenting isn't forever. Even NZ had to stop albeit world's highest int.. So of course Fed is going to curtail hikes. This shouldn't dent the dollar..any fool knows hikes have to eventually stop..if inflation is the cause of the hikes then the electronic money supply should be tightened. The idea: place the USD more equal, interest wise, to the rest of world's cncys, sell debt. There is an issue that's bugging me & that's the US gov in all it's secrecy is going to do away w/ M1 stats o the public. That's a nice gauge for several things yet they want to jerk this stat form us. When the government has less transparency, more secrecy, coupled w/ more power & more restrictive laws, that's a sign of weekness.

Syd 20:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Bank Of America's head of currency strategy Bon Sinche
"it's too early to think of a Fed pausing, but for the first time the Fed has talked about changing the language, which implies some members think the rate is getting to a more neutral range." Expects Fed to hike rates by 25 bps at least two more times

ICT ML 20:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Gentlemen $Cad is desperately trying to tell us something I think....and wouldn't hurt to look over a daily chart with channels and flags drawn to see what is going on here perhaps.

Fading this may not be the brightest move at this time.

beirut jb 20:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
11780 should act as a magnet now if euro retrace

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
>1.18000

Gen dk 20:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I wouldn't expect (and would be disappointed at) a good short today nor tomorrow..but we did place 2 small trial possies at 1.1800, 05 which are permanent til very well pos..but as Dolphin indicated, need to wallow >1.8000 even seek < or =1.19 then rest before the BULL$ can gather momentum. Look at 10 yr chart, coming off a sizable correction right now anyway, this upmove is just a minor stairstep on the way to 1.10..but that's next year's job in long term. Frankly euro could consolidate here then fall normally or rise more then plunge. The higher it goes the better it shorts.

beirut jb 20:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
big move coz well bad news for $ on oversold situation,
now the issue is the close, euro should close below 11781 to remain short on daily basis

let watching the close to c where could the market head tomorrow

Goes SpongeBob 19:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Tallinn viies 19:54 GMT November 22, 2005

welcome back, pleasure to see the old guardia back ... happy times and great to see you back to business :)

gt

Syd 19:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FOMC Minutes Suggest Reworked Statement, Not End to Tightening IFR

Tallinn viies 19:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
sold half position at 11820
stop buy for that at 11849

los angeles ss 19:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe / Valdez, I'm thinking if euro breaks 1.1805 again might be a good short level, at least dow to the 1.1760 point. What are your thoughts at the current levels for a short now? TIA

Syd 19:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FOMC minutes less dovish than headlines might suggest, though notes also that timing of the "going too far" phrase is curious: If inflation risk is real and data will be strong - as minutes seem to imply - the minutes "are an invitation for investors" to steepen the curve, Shepherdson says in email note. Curve did steepen somewhat - moving to 13 bps from Monday's 10 bps and 9 bps earlier in the session.
High Frequency

KL KL 19:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
getting ready to go out on eurusd and gbpusd...out 1.1823 & 1.7231...leave some for those who want to push it higher....what a day...now SAR at these levels sl 1.1833 and 1.7241....this is trading day

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe, there ya go! We're flat and ready o short this thing once that "light" goes on upstairs..waiting for apogee.

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
valdez// load up your donkey with vitamins and with missiles i'll meet you at the top of the hill...lol

Eilat Dolphin 19:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ I think the 1.18 level will be a sound floor for the next days, and if some lava flow can find a crack here and there, an upward euroption eruption could be brewing below.

Syd 19:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Export boost fails to lift manufacturers
LINk

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:19//Oh, true! There are mentally challenged people in every trading sector. Ask what happened at the great Wall Street crash that brought on the depression lasting 10 years. You can sober a drunk, reform a criminal but "stupid" is forever.

KL KL 19:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I don't know about you guys buy I am shorting google again at 415.27...sl 16.10....I think this is a bit rich now...so have to listen to instinct. Nice collect for all currency now waiting to SAR and short gbpusd and eurusd and long usdjpy...gl gt all

Ldn Delboy 19:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 18:18 GMT November 22, 2005
... don't expect fireworks!

Gen dk 19:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 19:26 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
NZ Fin Min Warns Of Hard Landing For Econ
NZ Finance Minister Cullen warns that unless "debt financed consumption begins to slow," economy headed for rough landing; business confidence plummeted to 17-year low, appears specifically targeted at stubbornly resilient housing market activity, consumer spending; Cullen reiterates that supplementary instruments, being studied by Treasury and RBNZ, would explore options to reduce pressure on exchange rate by reducing "monetary policy reliance" on Official Cash Rate, NZ's policy rate. Says sharp drop in confidence unsurprising given "their historic sensitivity to trends in interest rates." National Bank report

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
If we can just get to 1.1850-80 to provide us with a corresponding short, I'd be tickled. The street assumed Fed will hike at both of the forthcoming meetings..some say .25 bp, some say at least one will have .50 bp hike. The way the event was worded, if they'd have worded it "Some members feel hawkish about raising rates in next meetings", which means the same exact thing as "some didn't", you would have seen the lava lamp go south. It is hard to visualize how stupid this market is. Fortunately it will realize it's stupid and I'll establish my shorts positions about the time the light goes on upstairs.

Richland QC Mailman 19:22 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Before I go to rest, I see now the euro bulls reviving their hurrah. 1.1830 is i think in sight though I won't believe this to be breached in this NY session. I really want to see this pair at 1.1850/60 level for a very confident selling tomorrow NY time again.

All the best to all of us... signing off now. Tomorrow promises to be another day of exciting deliveries!

Makassar Alimin 19:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
LOL valdez, it certainly was used to make stocks rally too

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:13 GMT November 22, 2005
...can't believe this skimpy news gave us our wish...but it has.

Florida MSF 19:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Florida MSF 19:16 GMT

TP hit for 100 pips!

See what the Asian session brings.

Gen dk 19:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ballarat Ron 19:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Happy me
I made up some serious ground and now back in profit and up a bit from Monday
gl gt

Florida MSF 19:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC

Missed my TP by 2 pips for 100 pips, I'll close on the retest of 1.18

GT!

Richland QC Mailman 19:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Closed my 2 euro longs at 1.1798 for +190 pips. How sweet MSF! I won't forget this night.

Good think I did not go to bet immediately or I would have not catch this move. Better to close it as profit takers are sure to me above 1.1800.

Tallinn viies 19:14 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
1,1800/05 done.
next at 11835/40.
will buy more at 11740/45

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
We need a good solid punch to well within 1.18 territory to short decently...can't believe this skimpy news gave us our wish...but it has. Proves this mkt is THIN today.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
of course some members would caution..others would tighten more..here is the lava lamp boys.

Makassar Alimin 19:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
here we go back to the old usdcad 1.1750, if 1.1710-1.1680 area breaks, then i think we will see new low after of course visiting this year's low first

Florida MSF 19:07 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 18:37

It sure is looking good ;)

GL

Global-View 19:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
We are offering a bargain with our AFX News offer and not sure how you guys can trade without live news. You will not find an offer as affordable as the one we are providing and it will end once we meet our quota.

GVI Jay 19:01 GMT November 22, 2005
This may be the key part of the minutes:

*FOMC: SOME MEMBERS WARNED AGAINST TIGHTENING TOO MUCH (AFX)

Makassar Alimin 19:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London CCCUK 19:03 GMT November 22, 2005

*DJ FOMC: Some Members Warn Of 'Going Too Far' In Tightening

Farnham SFH 19:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
..a language change may be neccessary some time soon...also some members warn of going to far with their tightening..

London CCCUK 19:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Why the sudden movement up...all fomc members voted to raise rates in the minutes..and to continue..though i'd see a move south..gl

Ballarat Ron 19:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
well we have the 1750's again been a long time
lets hope it just keeps on going for a while
gl gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
i am listening to lenny kravitz. seeing this talk about hedging in a loss makes me want to really fly away..lol

NYC 18:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
In either case (profit or loss), you are have no position when you "hedge" this way and pay an extra spread tio unwind it.

Richland QC Mailman 18:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I believe that this euro bull shall have continuation up to Asian until European and early NY session before another round of sell off occurs.

Euro bears shall try to take over even before 1.1830 (1.1790). Tomorrow I will be looking to short before this area. At that time, I will be joining a big part of traders who are cheering for the USD - instead of being a contrarian like today.

Adjusted my stop to b/e from 1.1680 earlier. Meanwhile I will just leave the market with some peace.

Ballarat Ron 18:53 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
NYC 18:48 GMT November

ok thanks , I was wondering

the platform calls it a hedge
yes it locks the profit/loss and that is why i am holding out before using
it has saved me a few times and i just close the position when in profit again and then wait for the reversal to collect the profit from the "hedge"

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Actually Farney, it would go with that big black velvet wall hanging with a Jesus' Last Supper on it and the plastic teacup clock in the kitchen beside the ceramic praying hands.

NYC 18:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ballarat Ron. Your definition of a hedge is locking in a loss. It is not a hedge.

Richland QC Mailman 18:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Thanks SFH, I certainly appreciate that. You know what before I left earlier I adjusted my stop to 1.1680 from 1.1685 and guess what? My platform's low is 1.1684 - 4 pips before by stop. Yesterday I sold usd/cad at 1.1886 and 1881 but my stop was too tight at 1.1911 that it got hit! After that well, everything was history for the looney. Just sharing pal!

Back to this euro craze... 1.1760 is the pivot and so far it has failed. I am looking to cover for another failure.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
----------------------------->
Say you're ready for a workout in your home gym, Jay? LOL

Farnham SFH 18:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
lava lamps lol..to go with the pocelain leopard...

Ballarat Ron 18:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
it just has a hedge button
this places a sell against the buy
but havn't done it yet

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The difference between watching FX charts and watching a lava lamp is that the lava lamp never explodes out the top or drains out the bottom. They still sell lava lamps here, it may be more productive to put on in the office and just watch that endlessly instead of this Trichetey stuff.

Farnham SFH 18:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ron 18:39
ok good luck...what will you hedge the against?

Farnham SFH 18:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mailman 18:37
Good call matey...

Ballarat Ron 18:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 18:34

thanks again
i have some buys in loss so might hedge em for now

gl gt

Richland QC Mailman 18:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi guys, just back and how about that. Euro did exactly the reverse of yesterday's move at almost the same time.

Florida MSF, you must be smiling pal. Market heard our appeal.

Farnham SFH 18:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ballarat Ron 18:29

Anything is possible and the range has been thin..overall i still fancy the down side and am still short

The Netherlands Purk 18:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 18:26 GMT November 22, 2005
The Netherlands Purk 18:22 GMT

Just under the brick wall: 1,1577, i have faith....
Purk

Ballarat Ron 18:29 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 18:26 GMT November 22, 2005
thanks mate
it has already been to 1.1751 to you think it will visit again
or be on way down now ?

Philadelphia Caba 18:26 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:22 GMT

Purk, what's your s/l for usd/cad longs, please? tia, gt!

Farnham SFH 18:26 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ballarat Ron 18:25
1.1755

Farnham SFH 18:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Wouldn't count on $/yen dropping too far,,,relentless buying interest in that pair...

Ballarat Ron 18:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
good morning ppl
does anyone have a view how high we might see the eur/usd in the next few hours ?

Ldn Delboy 18:24 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
They usually pad europen currencies against yen when they expect a drop in USD/jpy! It failed 4 times to break above 119.50 and may need to go down!

The Netherlands Purk 18:22 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Well guys, as long as the yen is above 119 these levels are very good entries, and you know when the whole world is short on the euro, there is money to be made...
Good luck all!
Purk

Mtl JP 18:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
some food for thought, maybe a discussion, ahead of FOMC (re-post from GVI)

GVI john 17:41 GMT November 22, 2005
June 06 implied 4.72%

Mtl JP 17:34 GMT November 22, 2005
GVI john, from your Research:

Fed Funds implied mtgs
Nov05 4.00 Nov 1
Dec05 4.17 Dec 17
Jan06 4.28 Jan 31
Feb06 4.47 none
Mar06 4.51 Mar 28
Apr06 4.67 none
May06 4.69 May 10

Can you protract that to June and say market is pricing in 4.75% ?

That would be suggestive of possible usd pullback soon, would it not ? I am itching ... for a dlr dump

Farnham SFH 18:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy 18:16
Yeah looked like it was on its way at 1.7065...apart from yen $ move was pretty general...lets get the minutes out of the way(don't expect fireworks!

Ldn Delboy 18:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SFH, what do you make of today's GBP move?
I was expecting it to drop like stone after the comment about interest rate but look at it! it went up 100 pips in two hours against jpy!

Mtl JP 18:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GVI ECONOMIC CALENDAR (GMT)
Tue, Nov 22, 2005
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes

Farnham SFH 18:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London Leila 18:05 GMT
Over what time frame are you looking at?

Farnham SFH 18:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rafe... 18:10 GMT
Yep 19.00 gmt

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
what time is FOMC minutes? my charts show 19:00 GMT currently.

Moscow Danila 18:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:03 GMT November 22, 2005
The charts makes me think that after FOMC minutes at 1900 GMT we will have the dollar surge,let us see.

You mean that it will be strengher ???

Ldn Delboy 18:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:03 GMT
You may be right, market is not one-sided anymore atleast.

London Leila 18:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham do u think that is very possible for sterling to touch 1.7200

Lahore FM 18:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The charts makes me think that after FOMC minutes at 1900 GMT we will have the dollar surge,let us see.

Ldn Delboy 18:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I am sure BOJ has traders working 24 x 7!

Clearwater Beach wsj 17:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY thoughts from censored Financial. Could make a run to 120 tomorrow when Japanese financial markets are closed and there is less yen liquidity in the market. Interesting thought.

Mtl JP 17:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
İstnbul / glasses or not, market doesn't care if you have them on your head or kneecap...

You could:
- concider that dis-inflation is over and that inflation is in its initial stages.
- concider that, on a macro basis, holding hard assets is is preferable to holding paper fiat (read: commodities, and that favours succh ccies as the cad).
- try to assess the chances, say for the next ten years, of how many more trillions of fiats Prince Alot' s FED is going to (have to) pump out over that same period.
- decide who you trust more: Gold or gov't.

Mtl = Montreal.

Ldn Delboy 17:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
If you cannot beat them, join them. I think Short jpy still has a good chance.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 14:43 GMT November 16, 2005
All of us see 17157 as the full monty for today.
Groundhog days

D.C. WWP 17:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Is EUR/USD defying gravity?

Syd 17:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Polls Show Australian PM Howard Support Eroding IFR

Ldn Delboy 17:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London CCCUK 17:19 GMT
I think only Japan is closed but that is the bulk of trades anyway.

Syd 17:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rising dollar, energy prices, competition a 'perfect storm'
130,000 layoffs in a year: High dollar like a 30% wage hike for Canadian labour
LINK

Ldn Delboy 17:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
IFR: Japanese names report that they have been buying EUR/USD on a stop-loss basis which has helped support EUR/JPY. A US name has also been a heavy buyer of EUR/JPY, adding to gains on the cross which trades at 139.95 currently. Offers are tipped at 140.00/10 where stops were triggered on the move lower yesterday but stops are expected above this level.

London CCCUK 17:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Arent the asian markets closed tomorrow? Labour Thanksgiving Day

KL skystar 17:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
When Dubai start trading gold, any idea where the oil money will go ? no more support for EUR ? or more selling of USD ? which direction does it go ? gl and gt.

Makassar Alimin 17:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
until usdcad stops behaving as petrodollar and as long as crude stays above 50, it would be hard to see 1.20 again IMHO

Atlanta South 17:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
That got some stop cleaned. Didn't this happen last yr? Until yrs end wide swings. Will 1.1810 cap?

london cam 17:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
not expecting eurusd to convincingly break 1.1760 level today. this would be a reasonable retracement level from yesterday's move. gt

Johannesburg JW 17:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Big trap setup, be carefull

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
the upper band of euro's consolidation is 11852-32 so most likely if 11788 does not cap then we challenge the upper band, then whoosh! down to 11576.

Dallas GEP 17:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
WEll DELBOY this is what I think. I think market very short term is UNDECIDED so I will stand aside until probably Asia.

Ldn Delboy 17:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Perrie Como 17:06 GMT
UK interest is 4.5% Inflation 2.3-2.5%
US interest is very close to its inflation.

Farnham SFH 17:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Perrie Como 17:06
Unlikely imo

Ldn Delboy 17:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I don't like this, I wish Martin was here and would advise!

Perrie Como 17:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
It looks like the FED minutes to show a stop of the record long US tightening cycle. At the end UK just did It.

Tallinn viies 17:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
finally!
next target for me at 1,1800/05.
good night

Van jv 17:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Moscow Danila
"""FOMC Minutes Will affect EURUSD ?"""
what do you think?

Ldn Delboy 16:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
watch eur/jpy

Tallinn viies 16:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
next 1,1740 will not hold I hope :)
unbelivable range!

Moscow Danila 16:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FOMC Minutes Will affect EURUSD ?

Moscow Danila 16:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Perrie Como 16:46 GMT November 22, 2005
Witch pair are you talking about ?

Perrie Como 16:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
$Y above todays low holds onto some strenght yet. Maybe just a carry trades game more than else that could get influenced by international bonds swings.

Perrie Como 16:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Guess most big already done ..just small fishing maybe around markets ...Gold 491 nervoussness for the key long term resitances at 500 and into 520. Seems eastern and asean central banks loading It some months now and Putin reported today on news on adding gold for their CB. Some bullishness on Oil seen around might hold the Cad on Its superstrenght long term cylcle. Long Long Term Stops somewhere not that far from the market might bring the pair down into 1.10 by year end after the negation of many bullish attempts by hedge funds.

Ldn Delboy 16:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I am sure you all remember last Dec stop huntings in thin market, large swings in a day!

Perrie Como 16:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
strange the whole...however if the eurusd is capable to recover above 1,1770 then some buying interest might resume, maybe ahead of next ECB rate hike It seems now.

Ldn Delboy 16:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Florida MSF 16:33 GMT
Or maybe it is only confusing the traders and make money from it!

NYC 16:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Florida. Liquidity is thin and will get thinner so you can't draw conclusions from the price action.

Florida MSF 16:33 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Market seems to know something about the FOMC minutes.

19:00 US- FOMC Minutes

GT

Ldn Delboy 16:33 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
where are HIA buyer? Is it over?

Ldn Delboy 16:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
some of the price action (close to 16 GMT) was London fix related and can correct itself in next hour. we will see.

Makassar Alimin 16:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
this usdcad drop is no surprise, the first signal was seen yesterday on the 4-hr chart

The Netherlands Purk 16:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
That somebody is very CLOSE to me...
PLOL

The Netherlands Purk 16:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Zeeuwse 16:13 GMT November 22, 2005
Forex means taking risks, and somebody told me there where sellers out today, so he made a nice profit. Selling might be over now... (usd/cad)
Purk

Farnham SFH 16:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Zeeuwse 16:13
Good $/cad support at 1.1763-70 level ...

The Netherlands Zeeuwse 16:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
CAD/JPY made dramatic move today, it has the rest of the week to go below 98 ... if not, it may become a signal for USD/CAD going below 1.15

The Netherlands Zeeuwse 16:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
ok Purk .... there are many signs that it's hot air only, EUR did actually nothing today, the minutes may short hard ... but CAD seems playing on theme, worries me a little.

HK Kevin 16:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
It seems EUR strength may continue into Thur

The Netherlands Purk 16:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
yeap i do... read the archives...

Ldn Delboy 16:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I think today's action is the complement of the BOJ!

Moscow Danila 16:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
One trader says that maye be it will go till 1.1740 level, may be more !!!!!

The Netherlands Zeeuwse 15:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Purk, does you confidence means €/$ will print below 1.1560 still this month?

Ldn Delboy 15:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GEP, you still think 1.7115 is a good short?

The Netherlands Purk 15:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Zeeuwse 15:54 GMT November 22, 2005

I just see more opps. to long at better levels..
succes met de voorstelling...
Purk

Ldn Delboy 15:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:52 GMT
I am on the last warning, I can only discuss FX here.

The Netherlands Zeeuwse 15:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Dhr. Purk,

what about the USD/CAD?
some talking about model break, what is your opinion?

gt

hk ooozmeeh 15:53 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
DEL ....the market is whipping....

The Netherlands Purk 15:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 15:49 GMT November 22, 2005
The Netherlands Purk 15:48 GMT
yes, I think so, I said that 3 hrs ago.

yeap, and all i did was copy and paste...

Ldn Delboy 15:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
50 pips in 3 min! No data no news!

Ldn Delboy 15:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:48 GMT
yes, I think so, I said that 3 hrs ago.

london phil 15:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
to many thought the short was a dead cert

Ldn Delboy 15:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Moscow Danila 15:45 GMT
Not today, i don't think so!

The Netherlands Purk 15:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
stophunting before data 1900 gmt

Moscow Danila 15:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Somebody can tell me what is going on ?

Moscow Danila 15:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Everybody waited for EURUSD 1.1680 level

Farnham SFH 15:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy 15:39
Sub 1.7000...

Ldn Delboy 15:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SFH what is your target for short GBP?

Gondomar Trader.Cesar 15:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 15:28 GMT November 22, 2005
There goes my cbl/yen short. entering consolidation bands once it hits 20175.

Agree! ;)

MTL JD 15:29 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Melatonin Hoping ur right with a gain on US

West Desert Flockmaster 15:28 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
the charts of V.T differ much from ones of M.T.4 ..?why? Do you see same?

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:28 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
There goes my cbl/yen short. entering consolidation bands once it hits 20175.

19996-*20175*-20354

Cleveland Melatonin 15:26 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:14 // As Dan Akroyd said in Trading Places, "Not yet."

Cleveland Melatonin 15:24 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
MTL JD 15:09 // I don't know. USD up, I would guess, based on current trend. gl gt

hk ab 15:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
the one who is protecting euro must be muscular...

dc fxq 15:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Moscow Danila 15:16

Wellink on the wires - see rtrs item below - and Issing on tap tomorrow

Lahore FM 15:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Out of the drop on Cable expected by me over few coming sessions ,say 20,it has dropped only 80 pips so 820 to go.

Ldn Delboy 15:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hold on to your hats and get ready for roller coaster! Enjoy.

Moscow Danila 15:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Just German and Swiss names buying

London CCCUK 15:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
What was the richmond fed index? prev 12 exp 10
tia

Moscow Danila 15:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
What is going on ?

HK Kevin 15:14 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Cleveland Melatonin 15:00 GMT,does this what you mean.

London HC 15:14 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Is there any news out?

MTL JD 15:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Meltonin wich way and wich pair the mag 10 move???

Ldn Delboy 15:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:55 GMT
1 and 5 min charts are better for seeing some formations. They are totally distorted in longer term charts.

Cleveland Melatonin 15:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I feel a magnatude 10.0 move coming. fwiw

Ldn Delboy 14:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
lets see if it gets any better at the fix time!

NYC 14:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Naples, he posted RTRS

Naples DC 14:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
eur lg 14:49
your source?

Ldn Delboy 14:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
eur lg 14:49 GMT
The time matches the dive, it must have been it then.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
traders, don't use 1 minute charts unless you want to capture minutes worth of profits. Use 15 min - 3 hour charts..like about 3-4 of them per pair. Use them only to enter/exit precisely to eeek out a few more pips perhaps, if used at all. Think big.

Moscow Danila 14:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Anyway - EURUSD will go down till this week

nj jf 14:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
i guess maybe you got to get past the 1 minute chart to see any change ?

NYC 14:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Small moves appear exaggerated on charts when trading tight ranges.

eur lg 14:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Probably as a result of this:

15:46 22Nov2005 RTRS-ECB'S WELLINK SAYS EC RATES MUST BE ADJUSTED NOW AND THEN, IN SMALL STEPS IN SAME DIRECTION
15:47 22Nov2005 RTRS-WELLINK SAYS CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICY MUST BE CLEARLY ANNOUNCED IN ADVANCE

Richland QC Mailman 14:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
goodness market! up and then down almost kissed goodbye, then we are just back inside this boring range!

Ldn Delboy 14:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
well this price action is a clear indication of low flow in the market, fasten your seat-belts!

london cam 14:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 14:47 GMT November 22, 2005
what is going on? what was that dive for?

Del - its just teasing us!

Ldn Delboy 14:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
what is going on? what was that dive for?

Florida MSF 14:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 14:39

Look at the daily on the Dow from the first of November and the Euro. As the Dow went up the Euro went down. Just an observation, even watching during the day you can see the reversals as the Dow changes.

GL

saloniko nk ..1.4088 14:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
hk ab 14:21 GMT November 22, 2005

AB,Yes ..but

..at the moment there is no chance..

nk

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
when I win personally in this sort of 50-50 environment wildly gyrating on Trichet belches or some otherwise insignificant dust mote, I consider it pure luck and use of risk/cap management, rather than trading know how.

belden mb 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
gep-you still holding sort euro/usd

Moscow Danila 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 14:30 GMT November 22, 2005
If euro jumps to 1.1710 and subsequently regains the 1.1720's, it is official - euro bull today. Of course, it remains to be seen.

You think that EURUSD will long ?

Richland QC Mailman 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
guys, if price opens after a gap, what is usually the scenario like what is happening to euro now? thx

Ldn Delboy 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
One good thing about GBP is that after every sharp drop it crawls up slowly.

MTL JD 14:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Usualy DOW went up before holiday, isn't it?

Farnham SFH 14:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
MSF 14:37
Interesting correlation Dow and Euro???

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Alamin, true. Up to Dec 1 it's likely going to be totally illogical chop, after ECB data is out Dec 1 then maybe we will see some direction but end of year is usually thin and choppy too..into March. I remain flat 'xept for a few small possies here and there just to play..this 50-50 chop is for kamikazis.

Florida MSF 14:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 14:34

The Dow should fall today and the Eur should benefit from it. IMHO

GL

Makassar Alimin 14:35 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
as we get closer to thanksgiving holiday, i expect rangebound remains the theme, next week would be the start of real action as we reach the end of november and going into december to close the quarter and year

Richland QC Mailman 14:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
MSF, i was just encoding here when boom! hope it stay on its course...euro

Florida MSF 14:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 14:30

I am holding for 100 pips today FWIW

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
no, I didn't short..the mkt heard me and longed. LOL GOTCHA!

Richland QC Mailman 14:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
If euro jumps to 1.1710 and subsequently regains the 1.1720's, it is official - euro bull today. Of course, it remains to be seen.

Ldn Delboy 14:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
whoever is protection Eur 1.1680-50 level must be a very big and rich player!

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 14:21 GM// watching this too..prob is it wallowed around all day yesterday doing this "worm hunt the hole" bit. Sure as heck if I short it'll long to recoup the Trichet glich

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I'd bet a few EU members are eyeing UK's int dovishness and wondering why they can't have that too. The ECB won't be a pretty word around town if they raise rates. This may be the first crack in the sidewalk for EURO.

Ldn Delboy 14:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Looking at Eur/usd 1 min chart, it is about to break down any minute. Wedge formation!

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 14:16 GMT /// prob lower than that. And if ECB does NOT raise rates due to all the hullabaloo and if FED does, you can sink your teeth into 1.4

hk ab 14:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
nk, 1.4088 for your eur target?

limassol WJK 14:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I am short sterling from 1.7130, do u see it testing 1.70000

Moscow Danila 14:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London Leila
I think it will be 1.13 level in feb 2006

london phil 14:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
mailman your gut didnt manage to move it after that drop yesterday so not holding out much hope for your strange feeling today

Farnham SFH 14:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
London Leila 14:17
I am short...

London Leila 14:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Good after noon people, farnham, will eur go down on todays US session, what do u think?

Richland QC Mailman 14:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy, depends on the situation and need pal. At this point r/r is not bad if somebody will long euro. Of course, there are studies countering this position and have high respect for all of those who are euro bears.

Ldn Delboy 14:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
If it was not for the Eur's Dec interst rate gift, Eur would be trading below 1.6 now!

Florida MSF 14:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 14:08

I agree, I am still long @1.1705

GL/GT

KL skystar 14:12 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi Ppls. gl and gt

Ldn Delboy 14:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 14:08 GMT
As atrader would you buy Eur with your real money?

saloniko nk ..1.4088 14:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Good Evening...all!

GBP/J ..
clouds of smoke hung over the burning forest
SELL..

$/J ...
clouds are hanging above our heads
SELL..

ZZZZzzzORRO..(i wanted to read an answer like..)
Thank my Son!!
lol...

Tsiou!
nk

Richland QC Mailman 14:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Really have this strange feeling euro is about to erupt in an hour more or less - and it could exactly be the reverse or opposite of yesterday's move.

Ldn Delboy 14:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
China will overtake Germany to become the world's second largest trading country in 2008 if foreign trade maintains a 15 pct annual growth rate.
China would also likely replace the United States as the world's top trading country sometime between 2015 and 2020, Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng said in a speech at Beijing University Monday.

Ldn Delboy 13:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GBP: The Barker remarks have added to sterling"s woes but it looks like a delayed market reaction. The BoE official has added to the dovish take on recent MPC rhetoric by suggesting that a 1/4-point cut might not be enough to encourage people to spend.

limassol WJK 13:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
But GEP where do u see the sterling going down to before bouncing up

hk ab 13:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
gbp channel support 1.6744.

Richland QC Mailman 13:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi guys!

Everybody is talking about breach of euro support. However, I feel euro will be bouncing off from S1 1.1685 area in 1-2 hours based on some technical studies. This is the same time yesterday when euro failed to crack 1.1840 and fell. What if this is the same time euro fails to breach 1.1680 and move higher? Coming soon. Long euro 1.1703.

hk ab 13:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
dlr/jpy resistance at 121.80 the monthly t/l resistance.

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Wel GBP SHOULD be a good short from 1.7115

hk ab 13:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
who put an option game at this 1.17 again?....

Ldn Delboy 13:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I bet there are lots of stops above usd/jpy 119.50, it may rocket if breached!

limassol WJK 13:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Those who r short sterling, where are ur target profit

Farnham SFH 13:33 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Moscow Danila 13:27 GMT
Bloomberg is usually more used by bond and equity traders...why do u ask?

dc fxq 13:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Moscow Danila 13:27 GMT

i would doubt many on this side use it, at least for forex, as the expense is pretty hefty to have a dedicated terminal. also EBS seems more directly relevant to fx traders.

Perrie Como 13:29 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Happy tks giving... no real interest at current lvls.

Moscow Danila 13:27 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Who is using Bloomberg here ?

Perrie Como 13:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
UK is cutting interest rates and will again (off sources said) that sparked the pound minor sell-off

Perrie Como 13:24 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
UsdCad had an interesting long 1.1825 and is now doing pretty well. Take care however that if losses below 1.18 the move might extend inot 1.16

Ldn Delboy 13:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
look at gbp/jpy! Is it something Blair said?

Florida MSF 13:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Any merit to this thread " Huge orders levels- inside knowledge"

http://tinyurl.com/7mpvg

Chicago Goofy 13:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi all,

For Forex Trader, What function keys do they use most in bloomberg terminal??

GL, GT, Good Holiday!!

Ldn Delboy 13:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
yep, looks like it, look at usd/jpy!

Zagreb MV 13:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
IMVHO we are about to breach support on eurusd, it's a matter of hours.

Ldn Delboy 13:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Zagreb MV 12:59 GMT
Stop is at 1.7090.

Zagreb MV 12:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 12:42 GMT November 22, 2005
Del where is your SL on that trade?

Ldn Delboy 12:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
stop hunters around!

Farnham SFH 12:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   


DK Merlin 12:45 GMT
Not at all...its what make a market...some traders trade shorter term than others....no one has crystal balls...

DK Merlin 12:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
This is like lottery. Everybody is saying something else and nobody knows, but just hopes...

Ldn Delboy 12:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I have sell orders below 1.7

Farnham SFH 12:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Good luck...could see two way movement...I'd rather stay with the trend personally...think 1.7100 is an important level to watch
gl

Ldn Delboy 12:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
1.7112

Ldn Delboy 12:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
I just went long at 1.1712 target 1.1735 (keeping fingers crossed!)

Farnham SFH 12:41 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy 12:38
Still short of cable and euro/$ too..fwiw went short $/cad at 1.1850

Ldn Delboy 12:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SFH, you hold long GBP or short?

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Well I will say euro shorts are NOT convincing but then again euro longs aren't either. When in doubt go with trend IMO but longs MIGHT ork short term just as easily as shorts

Caribbean! Rafe... 12:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
euro- you guys are better off keeping your shorts until 11576, or take partial profits on 11627 with the rest taken at 11576.

London Charly 12:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
targets for bullish dollar scenario
euro 1.1681 >1.1657
sterling 1.7082 > 1.7048
swissy > 1.3245 >1.3272
yen > 119.61 > 119.85
All bid price

dc fxq 12:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 12:26 GMT

further to ur post, early bond close US Weds and very limited participation Fri as many fin'l indusrtry folks nake it a 4 1/2 day weekend.

Ldn Delboy 12:26 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Wed, Nov 23, 2005 JPN- Holiday.
Thu, Nov 24, 2005 US- Holiday- Thanksgiving Day.

Florida MSF 12:22 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Long EUR/USD @1.1705 SP 1.1680

Purely a contrarian play FWIW

GL/GT

Ldn Delboy 12:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GBP <- EUR (Sorry)

Ldn Delboy 12:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GBP: Yesterday"s price action formed a reversal on the candles, confirmation so far in the form of a lower low, watch today"s close for next direction.

Dallas GEP 12:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
OK got euro short at 1.1701...stop at 1.1740...target 1.1642...1,1588...1,1377. Wil be happy with 1.1642!!! LOL

Ldn Delboy 12:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
European session I mean!

London Charly 12:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
sell euro at 1.1704
buy swissy at 1.3220
invalidation points,
euro > 1.1704
sterling >1.7116
swissy< 1.3219
(15" chart opening, 30" ideally)

Ldn Delboy 12:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:52 GMT
No more important data today therefore no catalyst, I think a bottom is formed for the day too.

Global-View 12:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
GEP, minutes come out at 2 PM (19:00 GMT)

London Charly 12:04 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
sell gbp/usd at 1.7115

Dallas GEP 12:01 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FOMC minutes are at 1:00 eastern time in 6 hours

Moscow Danila 11:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Do we expect some anoucment today for seeing EURUSD go to down level ?

Dallas GEP 11:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Well guys I am flat now. BOTH euro and gbp stochs are turning up but nOT convincingly IMO

Perrie Como 11:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Japan today on holiday - tomorrow US. Yen opt calls noted to move trough risks of selloffs.

The Netherlands Zeeuwse 11:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
good afternoon traders,

may someone share view and/or trading idea for CAD/JPY for this week, tia.

Perrie Como 11:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
EurJpy is said to have key supports 139.15/30.

İstnbul 11:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl.JP
thnx for kind reply.!!
mtl means Montreal ..??
I know some economics and you know it cant always expl the movements in fx markets. I just wonder why it continouly rised for such long period without correction and anyone expect any reverse movement in short term?
thats all..
BTW I really have glasses.

İstnbul 11:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Mtl.JP
thnx for kind reply.!!
mtl means Montreal ..??
but I just wonder why it continouly rised for such long period without correction and anyone expect any reverse movement in short term?
thats all..
BTW I have glasses.

Perrie Como 11:18 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
UsdCad is said to have important support 118.05.
EurJpy 138.49 and 137.50 are holding the squeeze bullish enviroment intact.

PAR 11:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading on the non transparent LME is asking for trouble .

Perrie Como 10:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
The FX market today might stay pretty side (except Cad on CPI) till late NYC.

Perrie Como 10:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
$Y bullish enviroment is supported today around 118.80. Big stops yet 118.40/20

Perrie Como 10:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Rumors of Copper traded on the LME are quoting the metal not to have enough delivery storage for December.

PC

Perrie Como 10:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Of note there were some big problems on the Copper and Silver market lately. Also carry trades are seemingly loosing the liquidity base needed to exit.

It smells quite a lot

gl gt

Perrie Como 10:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
There are the CPIs data for CAD later on. So might stay capped into.

Else in search of...

gl gt

Mtl JP 10:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
İst. 10:19 / It's your own emotion in the Q caused by CO₂ in the septic tank of your state of mind that is blinding you to see the "why"...

Moscow Danila 10:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi everybody
We will expect 1.1550 level till Friday or not ?

İst. 10:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Hi mates,
Can someone can €xplain why no one sell s**t CAD agst anything since end of 2004. even without any correction?

KL KL 10:11 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Gold and Google asking for it again tonight...so ninja is ready to strike...imho short term top in place....fear of missing out or stop loss building under....too juicy to ignore compare to air on top...LOL

Richland QC Mailman 10:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Could this 1.1685 support be what the euro bulls are waiting for? Could this be the turning point? Could today be the reverse of yesterday when euro edged higher only to be smashed lower? Euro bears, better be careful here.

Syd 10:08 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Farnham SFH 10:00 just feel most of the buying specs , so a rapid profit take could be on the cards.

Farnham SFH 10:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Syd 09:57 GMT

Yeah gold is now doing what a lot of people were expecting two or thre months ago..it will probably break 500 and run to 510-20 before a pullback..

Syd 09:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Gold nearing $500 could possibly reject first attempt any views here ?

Lahore FM 09:55 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Syd 09:50 GMT November 22, 2005
Good trading for sure.am already sitting on a few pips.collected 200 yesterday.Only if the USD/CAD had not been so assinine i would be really rolling in money.Good luck to you too.

Perrie Como 09:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
EY is heading for a test of the yesterday's low.

$Y sustained trough crosses and seemingly strong after the yesterday sell-off which was reversed tks Trichet just above billions of stops.

Aud sustained by gold and Cad capped in a nowhere territory.

Eur the bigger looser.

Cad has important resistances 1.1850/70/90, but the dollar must strenghten across the board more to be seen.

The EurUsd is now hoovering around the low and might give more way on down, some talking 1.15 but IMHO 1.16 is already a deep down move. Tricky and Central banks nervous, maybe we trade again at their levels of interest.

gl gt
perrie

Syd 09:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:45 GMT very well thanks, should be some good trading today :-)Good Luck

Lahore FM 09:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Syd 09:42 GMT November 22, 2005
HELLO,my untiring Syd,how are you doing buddy?

KL KL 09:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
long eurusd 1.1693 sl 85 just for few pips collect

Syd 09:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: EUR Headed For $1.10 - Bear Stearns

Lahore FM 09:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
perth ss 09:36 GMT November 22, 2005


Lahore FM 08:38 GMT November 22, 2005
Does anyone see another 900 points down on cable starting from now and over few coming sessions?I do anywys.

Ldn 09:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
French Commuters Face Chaos As Unions Begin Rail Strike

perth ss 09:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Evening gents
Looking for som input on tp levels on gbp shorts.Abreak of the 1.7080/90 leaves a pretty open book for a fall to 1.6650. Would this be possible ?? All feedback greatly appreciated
glgt

Zagreb MV 09:23 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Purkie
I know, and I relay on chf also

The Netherlands Purk 09:21 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
yen is your guidance mv....

Zagreb MV 09:17 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
G'day folks,
I'm looking forward to sub 1.17 levels. Wonder if my eurusd shorts will close this week...

Lahore FM 09:04 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Dollar will get further help from Fed Minutes being released today nd also from MPC minutes tomm and Euro has no feet since yesterdy's jawboning by ECB.

Lahore FM 08:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 08:50 GMT November 22, 2005
Yeah dolphin,the king is dead ,long live the king!

Lahore FM 08:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Long Dollar/Swiss,2 positions 1.3210,target 1.3350,1.3170 stops.

KL KL 08:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
he he out 1 measly pip relong a bit lower ....nearer 1.7110

The Netherlands Purk 08:51 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Rodders 08:45 GMT November 22, 2005
Its Sumo time purky....lol

Ah, there you are! We have to talk forex here, Rodders, where do you see Delboys profit for the day?
Thanks
Purk

Eilat Dolphin 08:50 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FM/ 900?! God saves the Queen!

The Netherlands Purk 08:48 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Peckham Boycie 00:20 GMT November 22, 2005
Ldn Delboy 00:14 GMT November 22, 2005

it is no shame to take profit... i can tell...
Purk

DEL did i miss some interesting posts of yours?

Ldn Rodders 08:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Its Sumo time purky....lol

KL KL 08:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
ok in long gbpusd 1.7121 sl 15...just for some pips...lets see.. playing both ways and prefer to long than short..

PAR 08:42 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
It is amazing how little those european politicians understand from economics . A Greek parliament member complaining that Euron interest rates of 2.5 % would be too high looks surrealistic.

Lahore FM 08:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY target 120.40 over two sessions.

Lahore FM 08:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Does anyone see another 900 points down on cable starting from now and over few coming sessions?I do anywys.

Perrie Como 08:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Perrie Como 08:30 GMT November 22, 2005

Similar has been done by the BOJ a year ago.

Perrie Como 08:30 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Bud has published an article on the Fed discontinuing to publish the M3 measure of money supply. It includes a graphs of the composition of M2 and M3, the two components of M3 that won't be produced in the future, and a historical comparison of what was reported a decade before and now as M3.

Hope you can gain from my data.

It is available on th KitcoCasey web site:

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=392

Perrie Como 08:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
But the ECB will start to hike as soon as December as the Deteriorating Global Liquidity phase is coming.

Source: www.yardeni.com

During a period of rising USD rates, falling GBP rates and flattish EUR rates (an environment we find ourselves in at present) the underlying support for USD is very strong indeed.

Syd 07:54 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Consumer spending in France well below market forecast in October at -0.6%, compared with expectations of -0.2%, Economists now see more downward correction in 4Q, which means bad news for French GDP growth, which has been supported by consumer spending over the last few quarters. rts.

Gen dk 07:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 07:47 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
1,1740/45 seems to be good resistance for now.
target 1,1650 again?

Syd 07:44 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Intraday EUR/USD: The euro is declining again and now targets $1.1715 minor support. If breached, the $1.1650 area would be eyed next. First minor resistance comes in around $1.1800 Tuesday. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: The currency pair is expected to probe US$0.7330 minor support again and, if that's breached, to decline toward US$0.7308 next lower support. First resistance comes in at US$0.7368 now. Further resistance can be found at US$0.7387. Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish
STA/Axel Rudolph

Syd 07:39 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
IFR NEWS: No Reason To Confuse Fed"s Path With ECB"s - ECB"s Quaden

Gold Coast RC 07:38 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Re p/c security concerns here is a link to some programs to try especialy ewido for trogans and spyware made my hair stand on end when saw results i thought i was secure
http://www.techsupportalert.com/best_46_free_utilities.htm

Syd 07:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Japan Sakakibara: Global Rate Hikes Likely Main G7 Topic
China FX Reform Unlikely Major G7 Topic
MOF May Act If Dollar Above Y125

SA mk 07:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
hk, this is very interesting, it could be true???? (I wonder what Charly thinks)

hk ooozmeeh 07:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
FWIW, If history can be reliable, then we expect another upmove in GBP with GBP @ 1.7166, just above the 1.7000 Major Psychological Support Level, then the following trend and study is possible.

December Trend Range Low-High
1998 up 1.6459 – 1.6940
1999 up 1.5945 – 1.6314
2000 up 1.4231 – 1.4979
2001 up 1.4135 – 1.4606
2002 up 1.5428 – 1.6131
2003 up 1.7166 – 1.7941
2004 up 1.9013 – 1.9549
2005 ? ?

.......gl gt to all...

Johannesburg JW 07:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
test

Syd 06:07 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
NABE Forecasters: Fed Funds 4.25% End-'05, 4.75% End-'06
10Y Note Yield Seen 4.65% End-'05, 5.15% End-'06
Cuts Oil Forecast To $59/B End-'05, $53/B End-'06
Bernanke Seen As Good On Inflation As Greenspan

Syd 05:52 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
France's Consumer Spending Probably Stagnated, Survey Shows Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer spending on manufactured goods probably failed to grow for a second month in October, suggesting momentum in Europe's third-largest economy is slowing

Syd 05:13 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD Outlook: Consolidates After Trichet Body Blow IFR

HK RF@ 04:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Gold soon above 500, maybe about 515, the easiest victim may be the yen; Cheapest to borrow. And Jap politicians are helping the BOJ to accumulate it all(yen).

Syd 04:46 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Westpac Bank now recommends squaring up longs AUS/NZD, waiting for better levels/timing to buy; change in view due to expectations of pickup in NZD uridashi issuance in December after slow November, upcoming AUD redemption cycle with chance not all investment will be rolled over, waning momentum in relative commodity prices with base metals to rural commodities price indexes expected to fall
WESTPAC BANK.

Syd 04:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Deteriorating Global Liquidity
During a period of rising USD rates, falling GBP rates and flattish EUR rates (an environment we find ourselves in at present) the underlying support for USD is very strong indeed.

The story gets a little bit more complex if we instead focus on the outlook for the U.S. dollar versus Asian currencies. Asian central banks have for years performed every trick in the book to prevent their currencies from appreciating against USD. When a central bank intervenes to keep the lid on its own currency, it usually buys USD against its own currency. This may cause a substantial rise in the domestic money base, which is neutralised through a so-called sterilisation process (nothing to do with the human anatomy!).

When a central bank sterilises, it issues government bonds in local currency to soak up part of the rise in the money supply caused by the interventions in the FX markets. Otherwise such interventions could be highly inflationary.

One of the "safest" bets - if it is prudent to use the word safe in the context of investments - has long been considered short USD versus Asian currencies. Many Asian currencies are, after years of central bank intervention, almost grotesquely cheap relative to Western currencies, if one applies a traditional valuation approach based on purchasing power parities. In the past, we have in fact advocated ourselves for going short USD against Asia.

However, since the modest re-rating of the Chinese renmimbi earlier this year, Asian currencies have been remarkably weak. As a result, interventions have been few and far between. This anecdotal evidence is further supported by the global liquidity indicator. If Asian central banks had made significant interventions over the past several months, global liquidity would look a great deal stronger than it actually does.

So what is happening? The one-way traffic in USD versus Asia is not working as almost everyone expected it to. Could it be that the high oil price is starting to make a real impact on Asian economies? Only time can tell. One thing is for sure though. This is not the time to be short U.S. dollars.
John Mauldin and InvestorsInsight

Ballarat Ron 04:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
good afternoon ppl
some ways to help secure your personal computer

antivirus free for personal use "avg" just do a search
very good and updates automatically and scans incomming emails and outgoing

and of course to prevent prying eyes you can install "Zone Alarm ", also available as a free version with updates
this can protect your passwords and usernames this prevents key loggers from getting vital information from money accounts

and last but not least, there is a free adscanner called "adaware " this will remove unwanted advertising and cleans up tracking cookies etc

I hope you find this helpful in protecting your computer
gl gt

Syd 04:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Slips More; Profit-Taking Continues

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
caba// i know what your saying but it's just to give an idea to everyone, that websites when you visit them can ID you starting by looking into the windows registration stuff. so sometimes when you see spam with your name in it .. that's one of the ways in which these scams are soo accurate because they address you by name. so psychologially your alarmed when you receive it because it's addressed directly to you.

comp security is a big thing, you have to take a lot of steps to lock down your machine effectively no matter the OS.

Philadelphia Caba 03:15 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 03:02 GMT

Rafe, I'd never use these services.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:02 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
caba// amen, i can scan your IP for open/hackable ports! okay then if that is so then try http://scan.sygatetech.com/

just search for online port scanning services on google etc..i'm just saying it'seasy to get info about you starting with looking into the windows registration stuff.

Philadelphia Caba 02:56 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 02:34 GMT
http://grcsucks.com/shieldsupscan.htm

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:40 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
those mails from FBI & CIA are trojans. it was on yahoo news this afternoon.

FBI Big Brother 02:36 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
....It means we are all watching you....we know what you did last summer!!.....

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:34 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
what you guys should do in relation to computer security is this. many websites you visit are able to get your name as soon as you hit the site. it's only a matter of logging your IP and computer name then.

So right click on my computer look at properties and there's your name.

then visit a site like GRC and run a port scan the website will display whatever name you have windows registered as, most often people use their real full names including initials... that is one of the things you can change like using your nicname instead of real name.

Another one is this if you use Safe-mail you have the option of accepting mails from only the e-mail addresses you allow ie. maybe if the person is in your address book then mails from them will get through others won't etc...

this would eliminate a lot of phishing e-mails

ABHA FXS 02:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:09 GMT November 22, 2005

acc and i am received tow e mail today from fbi , telling me to open attachment with questions same like you,,, what is meaning this plz

melbourne farmacia 02:31 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:09 GMT / yeah, received one via anz today too.

Ldn Delboy 02:14 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:09 GMT November 22, 2005
Which illegal websites?

Sydney ACC 02:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 01:59 GMT November 22, 2005
I received two claiming to originate from CIA, telling me to open an attachment with questions relating to my name linked to illegal websites.

Syd 02:01 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
RBNZ's comments that further hikes can't be ruled out; says this means a 25bp policy increase "is certainly on the cards" next month. Tips cash rate to rise to 7.25% on Dec. 8, can't rule out further hikes early 2006

melbourne farmacia 01:59 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Couple of Worms coming thru australian ISP's ( bigpond, iprimus etc..) incoming emails today. Watch out for " Mail Delivery failed & your password" Update ya Virus program people.

Ldn Delboy 01:49 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Australia from CIA site: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/as.html
Population: 20 m (July 2005 est.)
Labor force: 10.35 million (2004 est.)
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 3.4%
industry: 28.2%
services: 68.4% (2004 est.) Mainly in london Pubs!

Oil - production:
537,500 bbl/day (2004 est.)
Oil - consumption:
796,500 bbl/day (2001 est.)
PS: CIA does not explain why there is 3 years gap
between Production and Consumption figures!
Exports - commodities:
coal, gold, meat, wool, alumina, iron ore, wheat,
machinery and transport equipment, and Bar maids!

Syd 01:24 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Australian economic growth is moderating as consumption eases, Treasurer Peter Costello said Tuesday.
The government will update its economic and fiscal forecasts next month when it releases the 2005-06 midyear budget review.
"There are a few difficult things going on in the economy at the moment," "My impression is that it's slowing a little bit in relation to consumption. Oil has been a problem and it could well be that because the oil price has gone up and the petrol price has gone up, that has slowed consumption," he said. Perth radio station 6PR interview

Ldn Delboy 01:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
ok, in Asian session they buy USD (almost always) they like it, i don't know why but they do it, so time for long usd/jpy.

Ldn Delboy 01:16 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Van jv 01:10 GMT
Oh it is ok, the car is a stolen car!

Van jv 01:10 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
lucky you , they do not yet torch your car,

Ldn Delboy 01:07 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
They steal your rear wiper!

Ldn Delboy 01:07 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
You cannot trust anyone these days!

ABHA FXS 01:05 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
DAY RANG 22NOV 05 ::
EURUSD 1.1804 /1.1674
GBPUSD 1.7243 /1.7119
USDCAD 1.1873/1.1789
EURGBP 0.6860/0.6805
GBPCHF 2.2730/2.2570
USDCHF1.3264 /1.3133
USD Yen 119.49/118.46
AUDUSD 0.7397/0.7338
NZDUSD 0.6919/0.6864
GBPJPY 205.03/203.37
EURJPY 140.09/138.93
EURCHF 1.5513/1.5449
EURCAD 1.3955/1.3820

Ldn Delboy 01:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
got <- get

Ldn Delboy 01:03 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Peckham Boycie, and stop it before I got barred from this site!

Ldn Delboy 00:58 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Peckham Boycie 00:57 GMT
Good luck

Peckham Boycie 00:57 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy
I myself trade mostly inside week timeframe, although some of my trades are intraday speculatives and some lasts for a few weeks. I would like to improve my 3-5 week trading ability.

Syd 00:45 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Australia's Costello: Economy Slowing A Bit

Ldn Delboy 00:43 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Peckham Boycie 00:32 GMT
I am not good with long term predictions! But i can find my way in short term trades.

Toronto 00:37 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
C$ cheered by retail data, bonds await CPI

TORONTO, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar finished at its best level in more than a week against the U.S. currency, helped by stronger than expected retail sales data on Monday.

Peckham Boycie 00:32 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Delboy I would like to hear your view. I am making website with my forex ideas, and i will place some research results.

Ldn Delboy 00:27 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
by the way my account is being credited by seconds!

houston st 00:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
from earlier:

*DJ METI: Sep Tertiary Indus Activity -0.7% On Month
*DJ Japan METI: Sep All Indus Activity -0.4% On Month

the link...

Ldn Delboy 00:25 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Boycie, i don't have the time to explain and i am not sure other traders want to hear my views. I give up.

Peckham Boycie 00:20 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 00:14 GMT November 22, 2005

I changed what? What are you refering to?

I was eurusd short and i am still now. Just want to hear people's opinions. If we breach 1.1560-70 area we might go further down, but i am always afraid if we just test 1.1570 area we might go back up to some extent. No quite fundametals for that, but crisis in Israel can develop and disturb fx market.

Syd 00:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY has been unable to try 120.00 yet, but its bias stays bullish due to Japan-U.S. rate gap, so its upside potential will widen if Nov. 1 FOMC minutes due later in day show Fed more worried about inflation. "interest rate differentials remain the main theme in currency markets."
UFJ Bank FX trader Tetsu Aikawa;

Ldn Delboy 00:19 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Ok, seroius traders who follow my posts know my positions now and i am going for a kill!

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:09 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
delboy// i don't think you can say i am a friend, i barely know you and worst off your slandering jay for whom you have no respect.

you should keep your irrelevant and incessant blattering off the board. we discuss market flow here not personal lives neither do we do any personal gossip or slandering of other traders here especially jay as he is one helluva generous fellow as a matter of fact i have never seen such a good human being in my life..the forum possesses quite a few such as this type.. if your going to slander them then you might as well go away.

Syd 00:07 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
SYDNEY, Australia (AP)--The popularity of Prime Minister John Howard and his conservative government has slumped in an opinion poll published Tuesday amid widespread anger over changes to labor laws being pushed through parliament.
The opposition Labor Party gained six percentage points in a month to sit at 58%, while the government plummeted six points to 42% in the ACNielsen poll published in The Sydney Morning Herald.

Global-View Jay 00:06 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Okay, that's enough and we will remove all the prior nonsense. Do us a favor and go to a chatroom if you want to carry on like this but don't waste our time by having to clean this up or those who comehere for serious flow. We won;t give another warning,.

Dallas GEP 00:00 GMT November 22, 2005 Reply   
Took profit on eur/gbp shorts from 6859 a little earlier at 6833