Forex Forum Archive for 03/1/2005

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
limit sell waiting for GBP/JPY @200.60 risking 199.52 with stop at 200.91

London. 23:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Live TV John Person's Daily FX Report -

Syd 23:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
RBA's decision to hike rates, while widely flagged, is already attracting its fair share of criticism, with Australia's deputy PM Anderson calling 25bp hike "disappointing," particularly for regional communities; no surprise there as government would want to distance itself from hike. Predictably too, Australian Industry Group calls it "a triple whammy for industry," Housing Industry Association says it's "unjustified"; Access Economics' Chris Richardson says hike a "mistake - they only needed to wait a bit longer to get a better feel for whether the economy genuinely is slowing

London Templar 23:22 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Off to bed....

EURUSD
Right well I am looking again for pop down to 65 tonight to trade higher - keeping a 30 pip trailing stop on that - Otherwise a break below 1.3139 to open the downside up!

GL/GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:22 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
sorry the AUDUSD bands were yesterdays bands i posted.

here are the correct ones valid for 24 hours or until 6PM tomorrow evening.

AUD/USD
UPPER BANDS 0.7883 0.7899 0.7914 0.7930 0.7945 0.7961 0.7976
LOWER BANDS 0.7852 0.7837 0.7821 0.7806 0.7790 0.7775 0.7759

Riga Jim 23:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
March 2 that is.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
EUR/USD
UPPER BANDS 1.3201 1.3217 1.3232 1.3248 1.3263 1.3279 1.3294
LOWER BANDS 1.3170 1.3155 1.3139 1.3124 1.3108 1.3093 1.3077


AUD/USD
UPPER BANDS 0.7934 0.7949 0.7965 0.7980 0.7996 0.8011 0.8027
LOWER BANDS 0.7903 0.7887 0.7872 0.7856 0.7841 0.7825 0.7810

Riga Jim 23:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
AU GDP (Q4) 0:30
GMT

Eilat Dolphin 23:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
bobl/ Sorry, the dessert, not desert. That one I got plenty.

Eilat Dolphin 23:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
bobl/ Excellent food, thanks! When can we expect the desert ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Marty, tks. I guess as you said this will be a slow unwinding then after a time a rather fast one as all of em get going. I hate to short at this time as so many times Aussie is slated to short then longs unmercifully...got caught in that before. BTW I pasted the exact entry per the time RBA was to announce copied from the calendar from the link I gave. That post was erased this morning EST. But it did say at the time 23:30...which they evidently changed to 22:30. Would have been nice for those in the know to have corrected me BEFORE THE FACT. No matter..small deal, chart is paralysed anyway..a non event for the time being, nothing lost nothing gained.

Singapore FH 23:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, hi, lol wasnt my own synapsis but rather a meager c&paste from news wires. not sure whether it was copyrighted though so taken down as precautionary measure. g/t

gold coast martin 23:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....Treasurer Costello newsconference in 2 hours....lol....no doubt to pacify market about interest rate hike....here we go......pressure on aud building already.....

Eilat Dolphin 23:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FH/ Hardly two minutes after Mc farlane's text came out, you printed a synopsis of it, concentrated, timed by the minute and dammmnn accurate.
That post has now disappeared in some e-paradise...

How did you manage to chop chop that (sometimes redundant) text so fast and so well?

San Diego bobl 23:09 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
fwiw...
As you know I am a technician and therefore focus on price action alone for trading decisions and per last post do not have an aussie sell; however, something to consider...

In the US treasury market...the treasuries "discount" the news well before the FOMC announcements and central bank
"official moves". Trading in line with the logic of the news often rewards you with smack to your P/L. Think of it...if we all could carry our script logic into the market and come out big winners we'd all be rich. It is the same principle as stocks coming out with great earnings and projections and then getting whacked in the trade. Just food for thought.

gl/gt

gold coast martin 23:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
VALDEZ...the aud has served the smart carry trades.....they are now re-positioning back to USD...exiting by choice....no adding....why?....because with large accounts the risk of exiting by choice rather than necessity is a bigger consideration than short term interest differential gain.....they all have long memories of what happens when you have to exit by necessity.....so all you have left are the specs.who will be forced out as the USD gains strength periodically and the current account deficit is highlighted now that the hike jive is gone.....in one way it is great that this hike thing is over....g/t

GVI john 23:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
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Riga Jim 23:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 22:49 GMT March 1, 2005
...again a reminder that we are dealing with the unwounding of carry trades.......RBA is not like NFP data.... no instant reaction....PATIENCE....g/t

I don't get it - what is [b]so[/b] bad about RBA announcement??

Singapore FH 23:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hi all, evidently RBA focused on future inflationary risk (underscored by capacity constraints) over backwards signals of slowdowns. fwiw, last month's US data showed what could be the incipit of a similar scenario (with
1) what appeared as peaking of that super-productivity phase;
2) increase in capacity utilization)

1 and 2 entail rising wages and thus risk of inflation gettin out of the Pandora box

sgp cc 22:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim - if Oz breaks back above 79 handle, should be enough shorts scrambling to cover. Market's expecting a strong NFP this Friday and probably started positioning accordingly yesterday.. a bit ahead of itself (IMHO)

Eilat Dolphin 22:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
cc/ Sunglasses he needs, at this hour of his.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Marty, explain something to me. If AUD now has a wee bit higher interest rates, carry trades of AUD/XXX would be therefore more desirable interest wise. You said that partly because of carry trades Aussie was overbought (as many analysts said too) i.e. demand. So you are saying then, unwinding of carry trades will bring Aussie down..seems like they'd be putting MORE carry trades IN making AUD increase across the board instead of decrease..higher interst = higher currency I thought. Straighten me out on this please.

sgp cc 22:55 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez - Think you need glasses, as the site you cited says 22.30 gmt.

Riga Jim 22:54 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
sgp cc 22:49 GMT // Thanks. I looked at the link you provided. I saw the same table in the morning (some 14 hours ago), but was misguided a couple of hours ago here on FF and assumed it's rightly @23.30. Never mind, it appeared to be a non-even tanyway. GL.

Eilat Dolphin 22:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Now if she doesn't want to dance no more, then she wants to lay down... There is no hanging around with da boys all night with no risks...

London Templar 22:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 22:47 GMT March 1, 2005

LMAO - Nice Nymph!!

Syd 22:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Second RBA Hike "Not A Done Deal" - ANZ
A second rate hike by the RBA this year is "not a done deal," says David De Garis, senior economist at ANZ. RBA statement wasn't especially hawkish and didn't add any fuel to arguments for higher rates. "It's a very hard, hard pick at the moment.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Jim, not only did someone "claim" 23:30 (well..several including me did)..the FX calendar everyone in the world gets daily at http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html did too. Flat out, the announcement came out 1 hour early that announced. LOL

sgp cc 22:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim - The rate announcement has always been at 22.30 gmt. Otherwise I wouldn't have gotten up at 6am (Sing time). This link was posted by someone else before, quick easy FX eco-number reference

gold coast martin 22:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:39 GMT March 1, 2005
eur lg 07:15 GMT March 1, 2005
G/M LG....In view of the recent bad data from australia the first week of march may well be the exodus of the "smart carry trade" money.....leaving the 'rest "to exit by necessity ....exit of choice Vs exit of necesity ..anyway..we should start seeing this smart unwounding of choice this week....in fact NZD is in the same position as aud....g/t
FROM GVI....again a reminder that we are dealing with the unwounding of carry trades.......RBA is not like NFP data.... no instant reaction....PATIENCE....g/t

Cbj Jake 22:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
This is called "catatonic scitzophrenia"!

Eilat Dolphin 22:47 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FH/ Hi FH. If I may correct you, I am a male! In this life at least.

Next life, I'll be a gorgeous black chick. Nymphomanicac of course. And Lesbian, what else. ;^)

Riga Jim 22:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Valdez, yes the meeting of RBA started @22.00 GMT, but someone claimed here in FF that the rate will be announced 23.30. Came out an hour early.

Templar, thanks for the options info.
re: this week's punt, yeah, you get the picture:)

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
LOL, the chart isn't doing a dam thing. I waited two weeks for this? Kick my afterburner. I thought there would be immediate knee jerk as did Dolphin. dahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ROFL

sgp cc 22:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 22:36 GMT March 1, 2005
nothing like an hour early, eh?

FYI - The release was right on the dot..... timing wise..

Singapore FH 22:41 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi Dauphine, i view it more likely as a need for justifying their rate despite the upcoming slowdown (at least so has been the rumour on last quarters gdp..)

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
everyone must be licking their chops for all that carry trade now...yummy. RBA did what RBA said it would. AUD/USD in brainlock as to what to do.

London Paul 22:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
surely eur/aud is a buy at 1.6700-20 level and A$ a sell near 7885 level.

Ltn th 22:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Fatuous Fools!
" In these circumstances, the Board judged that an increase in the cash rate was warranted in order to reduce the risk of an unacceptable rise in inflation in the medium term."
They have just pulled the trigger on a rates/wages/inflation spiral as perhaps they intend.

Eilat Dolphin 22:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FH/ Thanks! That very hawkish of them!

Gold Coast RC 22:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Woolongong SL
their is a guy in Sydney that does workshops on fx if you have an email address i will send you the info he also has a web site

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
nothing like an hour early, eh?

Ltn th 22:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Sell AUD and buy News Ltd.

Sydney ACC 22:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
MEDIA RELEASE
No: 2005-04
Date: 2 March 2005
Embargo: For Immediate Release


STATEMENT BY THE GOVERNOR, MR IAN MACFARLANE
MONETARY POLICY
Following a decision taken by the Board at its meeting yesterday, the Bank will be operating in the money market this morning to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points, to 5.5 per cent.

For some time the Bank has been signalling that the cash rate would probably need to be moved higher during the current expansion. The decision to do so in March took into account the following main considerations:

The Australian economy is now in the fourteenth year of an expansion which has made substantial inroads into the economy's surplus productive capacity. Over recent months, it has become increasingly clear that remaining spare capacity in the labour and goods markets is becoming rather limited.
This is now starting to result in stronger inflationary pressures. Price increases at the producer level picked up appreciably at all stages of production during the second half of 2004. Consumer price inflation, although currently consistent with the target, was higher than had been expected, and is forecast to increase to around 3 per cent by the end of next year. Continued pressure on raw materials prices, constraints on capacity and reports of higher employment costs – notwithstanding the steadiness to date of aggregate wage measures – constitute a risk that this forecast will prove to be too low.
Although Australia's GDP slowed during 2004, this does not appear to have reflected any deficiency in domestic or global demand. Domestic spending has been growing strongly for some time and the global economy last year grew at its fastest pace in more than a decade.
Conditions prevailing in Australia and abroad are likely to continue to encourage spending growth in the period ahead. The world economy is growing at a faster-than-average pace and world commodity prices are rising. In Australia, there are high levels of confidence in both the business and household sectors, credit growth is providing ample support for spending, employment is growing strongly and national income and spending will continue to be boosted this year by the rising terms of trade.
In these circumstances, the Board judged that an increase in the cash rate was warranted in order to reduce the risk of an unacceptable rise in inflation in the medium term.

Austin rb 22:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
anybody with c-m-c get disconnected from platform

gold coast martin 22:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw..dont forget we have data coning out in a few hours...g/t

GVI john 22:32 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
RBA hikes cash rate +25 to 5.50%

Sydney ACC 22:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Cash rate - 5.50%

Eilat Dolphin 22:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Sexydane says rate yes

London Templar 22:30 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim 22:28 GMT March 1, 2005
London Templar 22:16 GMT // Any chance to know when that DNT expires?

April Expiry - March is gonna be about Ranges!

London Templar 22:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Riga Jim 22:21 GMT March 1, 2005
Templar, in Dolphin's terms, I expect an M or a W followed by an N or a V until Friday. :)

A break above 1.3280/00 should be bought anyway. I'm not very sure about selling a break to the south from 1.3150/70. 1.3170-1.3280 range for now until proven otherwise.
Disclaimer: just a guess.

**Jimmy - I was once at a presentation at universtiy (incredible but I made a couple of lectures at uni :-)), and a question was poiesed to the head of Private Equity from Goldman Sachs..
"Where will The FTSE go this week?"
He answered...
"Up and Down"...........

Sums it up really none of us really know...

melbourne farmacia 22:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
RBA Release EMBARGO 9.30am 02 March 2005 cash rate target 5.XX

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Picking up on marty's post concerning tie in with AUD & ¥ with commodities, China & Japan...Australia sells 20% of its exports to Japan..another large chuck to EZ..explains why AUD moves in tandem with the &euro & ¥. Thus, in c'ncy markets, one notices a fairly inverse relation between the AUD/USD & USD/JPY rates.

Riga Jim 22:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
London Templar 22:16 GMT // Any chance to know when that DNT expires?

London Templar 22:27 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
A move higher in US yields overnight has helped the dollar firm across the board this morning. The short-term key for the dollar will be whether this yield rise can continue. But with the Fed likely to inject some uncertainty into global market pricing soon, perhaps by removing the word "measured" from the FOMC statement, carry trades with stretched positioning like long AUD are in peril. Our technical analysts identify AUDJPY as particularly exposed as yen crosses are pressured.

Gen dk 22:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Riga Jim 22:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Templar, in Dolphin's terms, I expect an M or a W followed by an N or a V until Friday. :)

A break above 1.3280/00 should be bought anyway. I'm not very sure about selling a break to the south from 1.3150/70. 1.3170-1.3280 range for now until proven otherwise.
Disclaimer: just a guess.

Singapore FH 22:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
morning all, :: yawn ::

fasten your seat belts. lol
meanwhile:

6:18 *LACKER SAYS DURABLES DATA `BODES WELL' FOR INVESTMENT SPENDING
6:17 *LACKER SAYS LATEST DURABLE GOODS REPORT WAS `HEARTENING'
6:17 *LACKER SAYS HE'S NOT SEEING SLOWDOWN IN U.S. MANUFACTURING
6:16 Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Trade Weighted Index
6:16 *FED'S LACKER SAYS STILL `RELATIVELY SANGUINE' ON INFLATION
6:15 *LACKER SAYS PRICE REPORTS LIMITED TO LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
6:15 *LACKER SAYS RECENT PRICE REPORTS `HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED'

Wollongong SL 22:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Eilat
it doesnt worry me what you say.
im hear to learn...... i still have a very long way to go.
only been in the financial planning industry for 2yrs (not trading though).

can you give me any good web page addresses where i can research info about the markets and maybe their movements?

London Templar 22:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
But then again - I might buy at 1.3160 to trade back - got a lot of official interest... However the market trades to the path of least resistance and that is South - especially when the double no touch of "wonder" is ranging 1.2850 - 1.3300...

Any thoughts friends??

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
GBP/JPY is not a pair I trade, sorry. Am a full time trader wondering why.

London Templar 22:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Ok people I am back - after a long day of negotitations....

Right whats the concensus???

My opinio Eurusd - is heading south upuntil Friday when the NFP comes out - anyone got a different view??...

Eilat Dolphin 22:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Woolloogong and Riga/ Not that I meant to be disrespectfull or anything, but you handed my your posts on a gold coasted plate...

(... Wolloogong: the utlimate train track... fascinating!)

Now that everyone has read the "banada drama" and "greased pig on ice" (ROFL), how come the aussie still dares stick his head out like that? Some crocodile!

Riga Jim 22:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Disclaimer: In no way is that a recommendation to sell Aussie! I don't have a crystal ball at home for long term trades.


Anyway, any thoughts about how to trade the rate announcement?

david bkk 22:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
are you full time trader ?
Do you trade yen cross rate ?
how gbpjpy now ?

Riga Jim 22:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
re: 21:57 - alternatively, PPP can be reached by a prolonged period of very high inflation in US, which seems less probable than a collapse in AUD/USD.

Ltn th 22:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Which war or what is a correction? Think early 1960's levels which is more relevant given big fundamentals picture. Parity with GBP or AUDUSD 1.80?

Riga Jim 21:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I completely agree though that Aussie (and Kiwi for that matter) are poised for a huge correction sooner or later (this is the problem - it may be later). Just take a look at comparative price levels (US vs. Oceania) - I'm sure you remember PPP theory from your business school.

Eilat Dolphin 21:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Wollongong and Riga/ As we have learned from Knowledgeable Posters in the last few days, here is what's going to happen:

1/ Decision, 2/ more or not more rate hikes, and 3, two hours later new economic numbers.

Thus it is the consensus of the Wise Men of this Temple:

That in the four hours following the 1 decision:

The Aussie will do a W shape.
or,

The Aussie will do an M

Or a V followed by an n
or an n followed by a V.

Thus the the same Very Wise Gang With Sharp Shark Teeths Ready for the Ultimate Kill: have collectivbely decided:

To be spectators of the game till the Great Gong Fully Wholoogongs, because the Big Game must be Rigaed.

Riga Jim 21:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
valdez, nope I have been around as Bruxville Jim occassionally since last summer. I still remember Martin's calls for 0.62 (was it 0.63?) AUD/USD when we were hovering around 0.70 in June/ly. No offence, since apparently his daytrades compensated for losses on long-term possies last year.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I might also add that Martin eats, breathes, sleeps and wallows in forex 24/7. He is a consultant to the most noted financial institutions and in performing these tasks he must keep up with any and all information available be it commodities, micro and macro economies, world econ and the sum of it's parts, and a lot that frankly isn't available to the general public. He has posted to this effect before in bits and pieces so I am not divulging any secrets. If one doesn't agree with posts it is preferred to ask for further explanation rather than to be aggressive and but heads as that is conducive to learning another's WAY of viewing...albeit respecfully. I see aussie is at last Friday's close..doesn't look too imposing of a monster. Marty is predicting an overall short for months in the future and not TODAY all at once. There will be peaks and valleys in this long term short so don't expect it to slide like a greased pig on the ice.

Syd 21:47 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Worst deficit in 50 years spells banana drama
Date: March 2 2005


By John Garnaut

The current account deficit has grown to more than 7 per cent of the economy for the first time in half a century, as the nation racks up foreign debt to pay for consumers' hunger for imports.

The deficit in the last three months of 2004 totalled an estimated 7.1 per cent of gross domestic product, far larger than that which prompted the warning by the then prime minister, Paul Keating, in 1986 of Australia becoming a "banana republic".

And if not for very favourable trade prices, the deficit would have been far higher than $15.2 billion.

The shortfall is one item in a trifecta of economic and political headaches for the Government.

This morning the Reserve Bank is expected to announce one the most controversial interest rate rises in at least a decade. If economists and commentators are right, official rates will rise by a quarter of a percentage point at 9.30am, pushing the standard mortgage rate to 7.3 per cent.

Two hours later, the Bureau of Statistics is expected to confirm the economy grew by just 2 per cent or less last year - about half its trend rate over the past decade - and might have barely grown at all in the quarter to December.

"In the modern period the Reserve Bank has never raised interest rates when growth has slowed this much," said Kieran Davies, an economist with ABN Amro.

The Reserve Bank argues that rate rises are necessary to head off possible wage rises and inflation, which could flow from the tightening jobs market.

Yesterday's figures also showed foreign debt grew by $83.4 billion to $691 billion, or more than 2 times the level at March 1996.

The combination of a current account blow-out, rising foreign debt, higher rates and slower growth will damage the economic reputation of the Government, which came to power in 1996 after campaigning against Labor's foreign debt record and was returned in last year's election on a promise to keep interest rates low.

"Our economy is in a much stronger position than it was back in the days of Paul Keating," the Treasurer, Peter Costello, said yesterday. "But I don't underestimate the significance of these figures - we need to lift exports."

The shadow treasurer, Wayne Swan, said the current account deficit - the gap between what the nation exports and earns from overseas and what it imports and pays to foreigners - could prompt international lenders to raise the cost of lending to Australians, or stop lending altogether.

"It could have responded [with economic reform]; it chose instead to spend $66 billion on its own political prospects," he said.

The "income" deficit on interest and profits rose 10 per cent to $8.2 billion, while the trade deficit rose 3 per cent to $6.9 billion.

Rising debt and global interest rates caused interest payments to foreigners to rise 22.2 per cent in the year, to more than $4000 for each Australian.

The Bureau of Statistics confirmed the current account deficit had not been higher since it spiked when wool prices collapsed after the Korean War.

Its figures show the deficit hit 6.3 per cent of GDP in March 1990 and 6.2 per cent in June 1986.

In May 1986, Mr Keating said Australia needed to climb out of an "international hole" caused by a gaping trade deficit and foreign debt, which was growing by $12 billion a year. The dollar fell 10 per cent in following weeks.

Yesterday the dollar dropped about half a cent to US78.77 cents at 5pm but remained close to its highest level for 20 years.

But Clifford Bennett, of FX Max, predicted a "spectacular bursting" of the dollar in coming months.

stl 21:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
opinion on EUR/USD?? breaking daily support

GVI john 21:41 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Ahead of the RBA decision

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
marty, tks for explaining this to Jim..I am sure many benefitted who haven't kept up with your posts this year. Jim, I think you are a new poster. Martin works with a large fund and is one of our most giving and wise posters. He trades on a yearly basis...long term as well as relatively short swing trades so his posts are oriented to much longer term that most here.

Riga Jim 21:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
martin, you mean 100-250 pips as Aussie progressively goes down? Or 100-250 pips in case it overshoots 80.00?
BTW, are there any special reasons why you haven't taken the short possie yet when you expect Aussie to go down even if RBA hikes? TIA.

valdez, thanks for the tip.

wollongong sl 21:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
im all new to this and taking alot of caution when trading?
will the lifting of interest rates by the rba this morning affect our currency for the worse or the better?
hope no one minds me asking this?

gold coast martin 21:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
JIM...We are talking over a 6-9 month timeframe......commodity resources to china and interest rate differentials are the only drivers of a high aud currency...built in the slowing of china ,less the interest rates and growing USD strength,and a yen to 110+....and what do you have long term?....a weaker aud....anyway...i havent taken this position yet....it needs to be taken in stages of 100-250 pip increments.....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
You can click the blue link "No refresh" above and that way refresh is stopped. Then to refresh, simply right click on the blue space (not on an image or text) and select Refresh. That gives you manual refresh.

Thanks martin...I don't know how you know these things but you do...hats off to the tipster! You are very kind.

Riga Jim 21:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
martin, I'm very sorry, but you have to admit that your last post is wishful thinking... sorry again.

Riga Jim 21:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
valdez, can you refresh FF in realtime fashion?? I get a 1 minute delay or so, I guess.

gold coast martin 21:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 21:05 GMT March 1, 2005
VALDEZ....rba hikes>>aud drops to 7636 within week>>retraces 80 pips to 77>>>>carry trades further unwind as trade deficit gets worse and receives more attention with no immediate need to hike rates again...drops to 73 and retraces to 7450>>>>>>commodity prices ease..drop to eventual 68...... g/t

Fexy Israel 21:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
David
Seemingly the gbt stretched too much.
Valdez
Inshala (ojalá)

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin, since you've got your ear tuned to the Australian news, upon seeing that aussie will either go up or go down, could you just post either AUD INTEREST - YES OR AUD INTEREST - NO..

Then from the statement could you post either STATEMENT MORE HIKES OR STATEMENT NO HIKES...we'll worry about the RBA jawboning after we've positioned. Thanks a million amigo.

Syd, farmacia, could you do the same as back up for us? TIA

david bkk 21:11 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fexy Israel
What city you live now ?

What pairs you trade ?

England Daniel 21:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 21:08 GMT March 1, 2005
Fexy Israel//

There was an explosion near the port – police consider it was mafia related so I am told.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Fexy Israel// GOOD! I guess Sky News was incorrect in their alert. Hopefully the Arafat crowd will disolved into the sunset and the new Palistinian regime will be more willing to negotiate rather than to commit violence. Pax.

bkk david 21:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast and FLEX isarael

how do you think about gbp? and gbpjpy

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Well marty...just some ponderings, suppose RBA does raise the rate 1/4 bp. Do you think AUD will gain strength to a great degree medium term (1-6 months) or just play with say a 100 pip long?

Fexy Israel 21:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Valdez
Nothing not happen at all in Tel Aviv.
Nada

San Diego bobl 21:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...
valdez et al...am watching my short term system for signal here to take in line with data; no trigger yet...
have to run errands soon but will post when i trigger aussie short if in fact i get the signal.
gl/gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Tks Olig for the IMM data, and martin for posting the newz.

LA oleg 20:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
valdez/ re: imm positioning data

i use this: http://www.rbccm.com/0,,cid-16777_,00.html,
updated every friday.

Los Angeles ss 20:52 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin, what impact would you see on usd/cad with the /RBA announcement today, short term that is?

david bkk 20:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
lax-lgb SNP 18:03 GMT March 1, 2005
£/chf and £/jp¥ are exhibiting converse moves
expecting more interest if/when 2.2402 for £/chf and 200.06 for £/jp¥ give way


Hey gbpjpy it should test 199.20-40 today ?????
How ?

gold coast martin 20:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
BREAKING NEWS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This story is from our news.com.au network Source: AAP


Dollar down on rates speculation

02mar05

THE dollar opened slightly weaker today after losing further ground on news of yesterday's current account deficit blow out.

Today the central bank is expected to announce Australia's first interest rate rise in over 12 months.
At 7am AEDT the currency was trading at $US0.7860/64, compared to yesterday's close of 0.7875/79.

Overnight it traded in a $US0.7832 to 0.7890 range.

ABN Amro head of foreign exchange David Mozina said the local unit continued to lose ground overnight after news that Australia's current account deficit had blown out by almost $1 billion in the December quarter to an adjusted $15.174 billion.









"The Aussie was put under pressure by an appalling current account figure, which is now 7.1 per cent of GDP for the quarter, which is not too good," he said.

Mr Mozina said all eyes are now focused on the the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is tipped to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 5.5 per cent at 9.30am AEDT today.

Rates were last hiked in December 2003.

He said the dollar is likely to lose some ground ahead of the announcement, before the market digests the accompanying statement by the central bank.

"I think it will probably be trading on the heavy side, (because) at these levels the Australian dollar is over-valued," he said.

"Everything (then) depends on the statement.

"The risk is that the need for further hikes after today start to become more watered down.

"The market still is believing that there is going to be two (rate hikes) but pressures are starting to show that that is where the risk is going to fall."

Mr Mozina said regardless of today's announcement, the local dollar was still likely to lose ground in the long term.

"I still have a 12 month target of 72 US cents, which is quite a substantial fall," he said.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will also release fourth quarter GDP figures today.

LOL.. familiar post......FF was of this view weeks ago....lol...these guys should read FF a lot more often....lol...

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Blast heard in Tel Aviv..ambulances going to scene..sky news alert.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
LA oleg// What is the best free source for IMM data sir? TIA

Sante Fe pd 20:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Can anyone make out any intermediate-term direction in the Euro? I can't, although buying and holding the 12985 has worked okay for me. Thanks.

perrie como 20:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
The USD's winter rally was suddenly aborted on most pairs. At present again both ways open and unclear. Double top (in case of euro) or even lower for Usd/Sf by testing the 1995's low at 1.11 are again in play.

Presumably this very first part of the week all players will be very, very cautious on both ways since risks for further abnormal spikes are mounting heavily.

Alos looking at those Chinese Yuan Basket development and USD record billions bought last years, had a very small effect on helping dollar.

Might we see the Greenspan's disaster showing up near to his ending career by january 2006.

Take care
iwave

LA oleg 20:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
RE: $/JPY<>

funny, the latest imm positioning data shows yen short positions at their highest level since march 2004.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I think as we near 23:30 GMT you will see more stop hunts just like what happened to aussie a minute ago. The more pre announcement activity the more it signifies to be it will be a profound move.

gold coast martin 19:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
(from GVI) gold coast martin 17:10 GMT March 1, 2005
FWIW....Polish and Czech nameS buying buying orders been executed ,keeping cable up and over 19158 level....

RE:CABLE....the above was posted on gvi earlier...CABLE seems to be taking over the mantle as the new carry trade vehicle away from the commodity currencies....best to avoid trading it for next few days until pattern forms....daily trading offer very little reward fot a higher risk.....g/t

Los Angeles ss 19:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks to both!

perrie como 19:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
mktnews: DOLLAR-YEN: Lifted to Y104.50 area on real-money and so-called smart money, the pair likely also shaking out a few yen longs that had built over the course of the day, players perhaps frustrated by the lack of additional yen gains beyond Y104.20. Traders say decent bids from Japanese names and others underpin the dollar below there and, for now, the yen's upside may be limited. Despite the bullish yen tone noted earlier in the day, one trader taking a contrarian view and arguing that Y105.00 will be seen before Y104.00, the trader contending that yen performance in the wake of today's impressive economic data from Japan has been miserable and that the market may be too yen bullish too soon. Bids seen to Y104.00, offers atop Y104.80.

Philadelphia Caba 19:30 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 19:26 GMT March 1, 2005
exactly what time is the aud release?

5:30 PM EST RBA Policy Decision
7:30 PM EST AUS 4Q04 GDP

LA oleg 19:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
2:30 on the west coast.

perrie como 19:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
SHANGHAI - China's central bank said on Tuesday it spent 1.61 trillion yuan ($195 billion) buying foreign currency in 2004 to maintain the yuan peg against the dollar, a rise of 40 percent over 2003.

In the meantime China unveiled rules on Tuesday that will let international development agencies issue yuan-denominated bonds for the first time, hoping to deepen the country's fledgling bond market and expand investors' options.

Los Angeles ss 19:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
exactly what time is the aud release?

LA oleg 19:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Toronto MRC 19:16
yes, all eyes will be on aud today between sessions.

Toronto MRC 19:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
LA Many big moves seem to get started in the time between US and Asian session when liquidity is thin. The pound has shown some strength but the euro looks weak and fundamentals for euro suck. cad is a whole different story fiscal condition strong and net exporter of oil make a natural headwind against usdcad upmove.
IMHO

Eilat Dolphin 19:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
SexyDane flashes that Fed's Santomoro just spitted on the $ again by saying:

"that a weaker $ help the trade deficit and offers trade opportunities to other partners."

Why don't they just sell $ and shut up?

LA oleg 19:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 18:44
i too think the next big move for $usd is ultimately higher, but i would not rule out another stab lower just yet. cable is displaying startling strength, and $/cad is having trouble sustaining gains, despite a flood of $usd positive news flow. also, from a contrarian pov i am a little uneasy about the $usd long spec sentiment and positioning despite recent weakness.

River Falls_USA_ PB 18:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
LA oleg 18:39///also a good point...it was hourly stochs 20 hours ago that showed the course to these levels, imo. Last five days have been consolidating at resistance imo and now ready for the next $strength move. gt

gold coast martin 18:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   


LA oleg 18:39 GMT March 1, 2005
..Nothing wrong with playing devils advocate..in fact in the mentioned scenario ,an exit plan should always be in place to cover ones position.....g/t

LA oleg 18:39 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:16 GMT March 1, 2005
good point, but just to play devil's advocate here: the longer euro holds the level, the more stale have the shorts become that came in at lower levels, and thus more vulnerable to a squeeze. hourly stochastics are approaching oversold levels. with the end of n/a session drawing near, probabilities decrease for a break lower... just a thought.

Rye, NY et 18:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   

Selling EUR/USD here;take 1.3093;cut 1.3228
1.3090 is the 38.2 fib of the downmove; will probably offer some support, although,frankly, I'm looking to ard 1.2850 as, I think, we're probably moving into a trading range over the next several weeks....all...imvho...GL/GT

Los Angeles ss 18:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
bobl -- your thoughts on cad, please?

River Falls_USA_ PB 18:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Austin rb 18:27///only that much currently points to breaking lower through that level, but it has been a heftier "floor" to bust through than originally thought...i.e. marlbe floor, waxed floor, etc.. lol gt

gold coast martin 18:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Austin rb 18:27 GMT March 1, 2005
Giving way......

Austin rb 18:27 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 18:16 GMT March 1, 2005
River Falls_USA_

could you explain the waxed floor terminology are you referring to this 3170 support giving way or a bounce from there up

gold coast martin 18:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 18:06 GMT March 1, 2005
fwiw...Euro previously upside top of 13221 has moved to 13209 indicating a mini floor being built ...indicates a harder squeeze at the 13167 level by virtue of trade range strangulation.....to put it simply...that waxed floor is drying out pretty quick...lol...g/t

Toronto MRC 18:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
eur & gbp both look ugly vs usd. With some hint that exports have picked up the market may be cautious ahead of Greenspan on Wednesday.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
VA Raven, in searching archives of last night's comments on both sides, I found that the Hong Kong (I think) post was removed from both sides. One remains on today's GVI however. I remember the post on FF stating that S&P was looking into Australia's credit rating based on a deficit.

Surprise...a support for AUD/USD at .7638 followed by a spike. Any up move signals to me the fat cats are getting ready to short Aussie at 23:30 GMT.

River Falls_USA_ PB 18:06 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
who waxed the 3170 floor...just can't get to the basement lol

San Diego bobl 18:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Although I have nice size position in eur/jpy short, I will add on print of 137.4000 looking for 1.3650 area next day or two.

gl/gt

lax-lgb SNP 18:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
£/chf and £/jp¥ are exhibiting converse moves
expecting more interest if/when 2.2402 for £/chf and 200.06 for £/jp¥ give way

Hong Kong Qindex 17:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
sgp sp 17:56 GMT - Good morning! I just want to watch the gold market. I should go to bed soon.

London Iain 17:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 17:49 GMT March 1, 2005

To clarify. Beware a stop hunt that everyone buys into and ends up being bitten by.

San Diego bobl 17:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad...
took some more profits on adders here 1.24__; shoot, told a phone call and missed the print level to post; anyway, taking some off >40 is good daytrade. I will be holding core unless we get unexpected weak close.

Va Raven 17:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Jim and valdez. INteresting setup for a big move soon..... Got to go now, Cheers!

sgp sp 17:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Good morning Dr Q,

You are up real late. ...Thanks for gbp/usd levels....

g, & gt 2 u

Boulder DAT 17:55 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips...

I posted this to my website with a chart. THis is what I am waiting for to add more to my short USD/CAD

Last week, the Canadian government decided to scrap a policy that limited the amount citizens could hold in their retirement accounts of foreign assets. The immediate affect was to sell the loonie as this would open up investment opportunities across the board. However, reality is that investors were finding loopholes in the law anyways. The loonie has since recovered most of the sell-off that it saw from the reaction to the news.

Dismally.com

Hong Kong Qindex 17:52 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:52 GMT March 1, 2005
GBP/USD :


... 1.8979* ... 1.9023* ... // 1.9067* - 1.9089 - 1.9111* - 1.9133 - (1.9155)* - 1.9177 - 1.9199 *- 1.9221 - 1.9243* // ... 1.9287* ... 1.9331* ...

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hi Raven. It was posted that S&P is going to look into the rating. The post didn't say the rating had been changed. The economic news early in the Asian session may have been a factor in this and I don't know personally if S&P said something which spurred the comment by Bloomberg.

Riga Jim 17:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
"Unfounded rumours that a ratings agency would lower Australia's sovereign credit rating given deficit of over 7% of GDP."
Quote from a message board.

London Iain 17:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD looking heavier and heavier. However, oversold hourly stochs and the fact that any break needs to remain below 1.3170 for an hour or two to confirm the move as real prevent me from being overly optimistic.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
An interesting observation I'm sure many here have made but to bring to a point, most often when a sizable move is ABOUT to happen, a "set up" move happens immediately preceeding it due to market manipulation so as to magnify the effect for the fat cats. don't want to get into tennis here but the last move down for euro for example was "fed" by a move up right before it.

This brings us to RBA in less than 5 hours. If Aussie is going to tank and fat cats know it's going to tank then it would not be surprising to see Aussie long like crazy right about now. Or if indeed the opposite is true, that Aussie is NOT going to tank, but long, then it should short right about now to give the move more topography or depth. Just something to watch as we wait.

I agree, E/$ sure looks heavy. But it's looked heavy many times on the way up from 1.27!

Va Raven 17:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Anyone have the details about the rumor this morning that Austrialia sovereign debt rating under review?
Please pass it on here if you do.

London eaton 17:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Looking to sell E/$ on a break of 3175 with an initial target of 3144 then 3070.

GL/GT

San Diego bobl 17:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Sold small "feeler" lot of eur/usd @ 1.3180; this level to 60 has been defensive, however the broad picture looks to favor potential break.

gl/gt

Va Raven 17:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Wow, nh, apparently, you have the record of "opps" .... no wonder he didn't attend your last birthday party.....
Cheers!

GOES SpongeBob 17:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
within soem minutes we will see what US has to offer as a burp after it's lunch ... gt all

Livingston nh 17:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Raven - G'span got a bit of a reprieve from the CPI last week so he can keep up the "contained inflation" message a bit longer but "measured" (like last year's word "transitory") will disappear // fortunately for him nobody reads his prior "mission accomplished" statements -- his comments about Social Security were amusing in light of his G'span commission of a couple of decades ago

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FM Raven//
Put Option (Vanilla)..strike .74 is available for friday...You could Lots of Money

London Iain 17:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Talking my book, but eurusd is starting to look very heavy and 1.3160/70 is very close at hand. I've just got a funny feeling that as London shuts up shop and liquidity dries up, someone may be tempted to push us down to see what's beneath this much touted level?!

Hong Kong Qindex 17:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:09 GMT March 1, 2005
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle


... 0.7713* ... 0.7753* ... // 0.7793* - 0.7813 - 0.7833* - 0.7853 - {0.7874}* - 0.7894 - 0.7914* - 0.7934 - 0.7954* // ... 0.7994* ... 0.8034* ...

FM Raven 17:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Ha, NH, thakns for the info. But you know that aussie piece hasn't been acting "technically" at all in recent weeks, so expecting a non-tech but pure seloff starting from tonight, we are looking for something around 0.7570 by week end. Good luck mate!

BTW, what would you expect your schoolmate' message tomorrow?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Placing Orders over next 24 hours for Aussie at .780 area

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Dat...
I think You're Perfectly right!!
Just Thought to take advantage of this PT of Longers..
I think I will do that next day..
Thanks

Boulder DAT 16:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:19 GMT March 1, 2005
Cad is Ready soon

I'm thinking that you might have to wait a bit, maybe until tomorrow, to short USD/CAD

Livingston nh 16:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Raven - Aussie been staying supported at 21 da sma BUT MACD did not support the last couple of moves above .79 so short looks OK (but I'll wait until 21 da is broken) - target below .7670

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
i SHorted More Kiwie and GBP/CHF
Tired of Waiting + I Think I Might Have Over estimated a little

Va Raven 16:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Agreed, NH, and hike or not by RBA tonight, aud is a sell.

Livingston nh 16:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
ECB rate cut ?? Germany (and others) on the way to violating the Stability Pact again - if EU inflation is still lower than target the window for a rate cut is open now -- 10 year bunds are yielding less than US 3 yr so a rate cut would seem to be in line with market yields // pressure to squeeze the fiscal side needs a little help from monetary folks at ECB

BoC decision today keeps US rates above similar term rates in Canada so still bullish USD/CAD

With Aussie yields in a virtual flat line I doubt the RBA is in enough of a self destruct mode to hike rates Weds

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:13
Not to say of course that technicals can be punctured..///agreed! am waiting for Marty's hammer to bust through that 3170 marble floor. gt

Hong Kong Qindex 16:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:28 GMT March 1, 2005
EUR/USD : The lower barrier at 1.3108 // 1.3122 is likely to be challenged later today or early in the Asian session.


... 1.3095* - 1.3108 // 1.3122* - 1.3135 - 1.3148* - 1.3162 - (1.3175) - 1.3188 - 1.3202* - 1.3215 - 1.3229 // 1.3242 - 1.3255* ...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
USD/JPY Might Just take an Evil Kenevil Jump on the ramp
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Cad is Ready soon

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
RiverFalls// Not to say of course that technicals can be punctured..look what happened to cad 4 weeks ago..it soared above RSI with a vengance in a peak which quickly shorted big time for paybacks perforating THEN RSI's floor. I guess all we can do is wait, answer email & watch this. LOL. Raiding in this isn't an option for me so best to sit tight and wait for RBA. Working on 2 websites anyway...

San Diego bobl 16:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito...
great...patience is definitely a virtue in this business; looks like market is easing into comfort trade here with lazy noise back and forth...
gl/gt

Gen dk 16:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
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Gen dk 16:04 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
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quito_ecuador_valdez 16:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bob, you've nice calls as usual lately..tks. USD/CAD is the same thing as E/$ (IN REVERSE of course...SMA is DECIDEDLY long, RSI is DECIDEDLY overbought..touching line right now (3 hr interval chart). I am flat..compulsion to play weaker than sitting on hands. RBA is what I'm waitin' for and it seems Aussie is relaxing before exercise time.

River Falls_USA_ PB 16:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:51 ///is valid...this conflict - partly why I closed out 1/2 position in short E/$. Not time imo to open a position, but protect one in place. gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm
Just added More GBP Croses

Rockford BDR 16:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
OD
I sold at 9190 for 9150-60 area. Stop is at 9225

San Diego bobl 15:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito...
WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT...

and later "don't should on yourself"...

fwiw...
lower end of 7 day range looks like it may break to downside; this is where buyers have defended however there conviction weakens as the will is tested more and more. I am looking for a break here sooner or later.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
E/$ sma on 3 hour interval chart is decidedly below the line..shorting. But on RSI at same chart is touching bottom, ready to swoop up. Either I am crosseyed or these two are in dire conflict. Comments?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Comex Gold : A Pullback is Imminent
Albert Cheung - Tuesday at 1:38 AM

Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT March 1, 2005
Comex Gold : Weekly Cycle (Apr) : The market is negative as it was rejected from the barrier of 437.4 // 440.2 in the last New York session. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market can penetrate through the projected supporting point at 428.9.


... 417.6 // 420.4 - 423.3 - 426.1 - (428.9) - 431.7 - 434.6 - 437.4 // {440.2} ...

OD 15:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I have put on sell stop at level 1.9185 for cable. HOpe that I'm right. Are there anyone who like me thinks about selling cable from this level?
Have a nice trades to everyone.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Cad...Might be OK to short 1.2450

San Diego bobl 15:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold sliding...buying more usd/cad

London eaton 15:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Any opinopns on Cable from here pls ? TIA

GT

gold coast martin 15:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
The 10477 in yen today will correlate with the breach of 13167 euro and 19148 cable.....fwiw...g/t

gold coast martin 15:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT March 1, 2005
RE:YEN...We already had a taste of 10477 today....another taste and breach today is still possible...on the way to 10578.....in viw of todays action yen tends to move slow and methodical.....good trade for pure chartists today the yen.....g/t

melbourne DC 15:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
to balance prev rec ..
DJ MARKET TALK: BoA Favors Short AUD/USD Position

1536 GMT [Dow Jones] While Goldman upped its AUD forecasts Tue, BoA is
recommending taking a short AUD/USD position at $0.7860, with a target at
$0.7450 and a stop on a two-day close above $0.7960, just short of recent AUD
high. BoA says the 3 factors that have bolstered AUD - higher industrial
commodity prices, rising rate expectations and general USD weakness - "will
become less supportive during the weeks ahead." (LPN)
(AP-DJ-03-01-05 1536GMT)

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Marty..on 3-4 hour interval chart, I see $/¥ maybe taking out 104.70-80 in 24 hours...then turning bullish to 104.90-99. What think?

melbourne DC 15:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
martin 1528
i envy your entry lvl indeed. re the bank's rec i think it refer to higher export value due to better tot thus cutting the cad (to 4% of gdp according to some).
at the moment i am trying to figure IF market is chasing yield at the expense of ignoring risk and hence taking outsized positions. Could be just talking nonsense.
anyway , that's for another day as end of day for me. all the best. David.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Tks Caba. Mkt has jitters pre RBA...as marty predicted some whip til then. Agree with him, it will be good when this RBA suspense is OVER.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Kiwie short here

Philadelphia Caba 15:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:25 GMT March 1, 2005
I have the exact time of RBA's rate decision release at 23:30 today. Does anyone have different? If so please POST. Marty, what's your clock tell as T-time?

Have 5:30 pm EST.

gold coast martin 15:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
melbourne DC 15:21 GMT March 1, 2005
hello DC...higher commodity exports at a high currency rate will mean a higher current account than what we have now....lol....these banks...do they see the dollar going to 83 and staying there with a deficit equivalent to over 6.5% of gdp?..anyway......my stops on my core positions are at 8084...remembering that i am short on my core positions from the extreme 79552 and 7949 levels...g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Longing USD/JPY on 5 pip drops
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm

San Diego bobl 15:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
added some eur/jpy @ 62...would like more higher if i can get it...as I said earlier, like potential for longer term trade here.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I have the exact time of RBA's rate decision release at 23:30 today. Does anyone have different? If so please POST. Marty, what's your clock tell as T-time?

OD 15:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thank you for your opinion San Diego. I will wait until this hour will be closed before making some kind of decision.
have a nice trade.
OD

mks london 15:22 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
cable want to test 93

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Checking €/$ 30 min interval, it appeared to be in "set up" mode from 03:30's low of 1.3187..only to seek 03:00
s low levels and recoup 1/2 at this point from USD news release dip which to me is a substantial "bounce n stick". If USD bulls are waiting, they are having lunch with desert and after meal coffee while USD bears watch...I think this move has petered out and backlased. Aussie is at pre announcement level..ready to go on with RBA's trenkit later on.

melbourne DC 15:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hello Martin 1510 ..
where will your stop on audusd short be? Thanks.

fwiw .. DJ MARKET TALK: Goldman Sachs Ups AUD Forecast Ahead Of RBA
1457 GMT [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs has lifted its AUD forecasts after "recent
news about extraordinary rises in bulk commodity prices contracts," which the
bank says will improve Australia's terms-of-trade and pare back the currenct
account deficit. Better global growth and RBA rate rises will also help. Goldman
sees AUD at $0.83 in 3 months, $0.85 in six months and $0.85 in a year. That's
up from $0.78, $0.78 and $0.79 previous forecasts. (LPN)
(DC disclaimer - no audusd position)

Chicago Goofy 15:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
A simple question: why carry trade end up with no more rate hike given there is still a big rate gap between us and oz/nz. carrier still can bank momey in oz up to the point where low aussie/dollar level is offset by the interest gain.

Thanks.

gold coast martin 15:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....euro capped to 13221 upside.....consistent squeeze of the 13167 level will yield a result....lol....g/t

San Diego bobl 15:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
1.9186 is still in range...lower part; if you care to anticipate a break and get early to catch stops lower that may be good strategy. My system stays long until 1.9094 broken on hourly close. fwiw...I don't see anything concrete in cable today thus far...neutral

OD 15:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hi to everyone. what do you think about cable going south from level 1.9185?
thanks

Philadelphia Caba 15:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:10 GMT March 1, 2005

Thanks Martin.

gold coast martin 15:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 15:03 GMT March 1, 2005
Caba.....i have my core scanario will end at 7280 aud and 6780 nzd........Read todays earlier posts regarding rba rate hike.....in the long scheme of things it will not matter..carry trades will unwound irrespective....i will of course take profit every 80 pip drop on the way to the above targets.....if there is no hike tomorrow ,lol,well we will get to the above levels quicker...g/t

Toronto MRC 15:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks

chgo JB 15:06 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. chief executives, confident the nation's economic recovery will persist, expect to boost spending on equipment and infrastructure in 2005 but aren't planning big increases in hiring, a new survey shows.

chgo JB 15:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
US Construction Spending +0.7% In Jan
Dec Construction Spending Revised To +1.2% From +1.1%

Toronto MRC 15:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
construction spending?

Philadelphia Caba 15:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin, Gold Coast, may I ask you on your t/p level for core audusd shorts if won't be any rate hike late today, please? Also curios about your profit level on nzdusd shorts..Thanks. Appreciate it! GT&GL!

San Diego bobl 15:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
sold partial usd/cad from 2356 entry @ 2406

Global-View GVI 15:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
GVI 15:02 GMT March 1, 2005
Feb ISM PMI: 55.8 vs. 56.5 in Jan
Employment 57.4 vs. 58.1 in Jan

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
nice try at a stop hunt.

GOES SpongeBob 15:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
it goes about €/$ 1H/30D chart

gt

San Diego bobl 15:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
usd/cad getting it going here...

GOES SpongeBob 15:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
looking on the 1HR/30D chart, think we can see the dynamics of break below 200MA betwwen 27/JAN/05-02/FEB/05 comprable to last 3-4 sessions ...

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Martin has observed constantly that USD/YEN is a driver. That pair and E/$ are matching up pretty well this week generally. Aussie has 2/3 recouped and looks like at this point pretty much faulting only 10 p below pre-news level. CAD due to rate stablity news (Thanks John!) is maintaining higher range understandibly. Euro still rebounding slowly 40 p/hr rate and leveling out. I still can't "see" anything worth risk yet..likely will shut down with winnings...and just watch.

Yen: On 3 hour interval chart $/¥ has been dipping from each Friday's close levels at midweek then recouperating most or all to sameish previous weekend levels on following Friday making for the last 2 weeks a V formation each week. The pair is in dip mode now...Q is will it follow prev 3 weeks and recoup 100-150 pips?

London Iain 14:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
If it does go, the daily chart will begin to look very heavy. But it is an 'if' - can't begin to count the amount of times recently i've been looking for big days, just to be dissapointed!!!

San Diego bobl 14:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
eur/jpy...
I like the history on charts showing ability to make directional moves of several weeks. We took 100 pips from yesterday's entries on quarter possie and I want to get em back...this bounce has been weak and indicative of probable lower prices.
I will add down, which i don't like to do...at 137.4000. Right now this pair toying with 20 ema daily chart. The even seems possible today.

gold coast martin 14:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 14:39 GMT March 1, 2005
Marble breaks..lol.. possibly in 20 minutes...lol...just the tea leaves again!!!!

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:39 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:31///that's what I was hoping for, but that 3170 floor seems to be marble...will consider reversing if we breach 3230. gt

London Iain 14:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
in addition to eurusd, trendline support on cable at 1.9160 (important 100hr ma just below at 1.9150). Also, usdcad has left behind a three wave (corrective) setback from 1.25 on the 24th. Therefore, the potential's certainly there, but will need to see how the market treats these key areas.

gold coast martin 14:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
VALDEZ...RE:EURO....if euro breaches 13167 level then 13083 will be seen fairly quickly.....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
USD debouncing across board..Martin, if Yen soars then it will be right in time for Aussie to plummet if RBA doesn't raise rates..nice!

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
was flat for aussie and cad bounce, maintaining low risk levels here. I see USD/CAD is near 1.2360 which had significance as Res earler in Asian. The USD positive news in my op wasn't a biggie but it gives clues to USD bulls and their quest for bull food THUS FAR. Am still flat..having tp on all shorts..euro and aussie. Entered a tad late as had to see move (no fake) first. I have no hunch where it will go from here..recoup slowly today to prev or meander around til NY bell. EUR/USD 1.3169 is the immediate key for more down move IMHO.

Auckland peat 14:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
yes i got unintentionally closed out at 1.3185
Moved my stop too low and the (dead?) cat bounce clawed me!
To reenter or not ?? No no its 3:30 AM NZ time.Sleep for work in the morning , g'nite g/t

chgo JB 14:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Albert ~ do you include the 30yr T-Bond in your studies?

gold coast martin 14:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
...no doubt the YEN will help...lol..g/t

gold coast martin 14:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW,,,RE:CAD....a critical level to breach in order to see 12496 is 12409......a breach of this level will also reveal the 12496 and a strong bias towards the 12576 level....g/t

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 14:13/// fwiw peeled off 1/2 my E/$ shorts at 3180 for the same reason. gt

Gen dk 14:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKG SK 14:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
For Euro to go up, it is not a easy road. USD have to rebound to 1.29 before any more buying. GT

london steamer 14:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin
Its certainly flowing now.Good call once again.Thanks

San Diego bobl 14:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
eur/jpy...logical bounce area here; took some profits on small amount (1/4) and will add 'em up if we bounce or on another slide. Gauging action here.

gl/gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
1.3168 euro is next..if that res fails then we can look for new range likely this week.

gold coast martin 14:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
london steamer 13:57 GMT March 1, 2005
I am still targeting 12496 from 12280 levels....have re-entered despite been stopped as per previous post....only beacause flows indicated direction was correct ...g/t

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
San Diego bobl 13:56
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:59
///was typing when you guys posted...but always better when others sharing similar sentiment. gt

River Falls_USA_ PB 14:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw I loaded up on 3260-3250 E/$ shorts at the end of NY session after all the whippy topping action. Am once again a man of conviction. Stochastics is outweighing MAs at this point and recent follow up momentum appears to confirm mid term $ strength accross the board imo. gt

GVI john 14:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent

OTTAWA—The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 3/4 per cent.

Since the release of the January Monetary Policy Report Update, the accumulated information on the Canadian and global economies has been broadly consistent with the Bank's expectations. Although the Canadian National Accounts indicated that output growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 was somewhat lower than anticipated in the Update, upward revisions to growth earlier in the year imply a level of economic activity at year end that is in line with the Bank's expectations. The outlook for the Canadian economy and inflation, the analysis of the factors at play, and the implications for the pace of reduction in monetary stimulus are essentially unchanged from those that the Bank presented in January's Update. Consistent with this assessment, the Bank decided to leave the target for the overnight rate unchanged.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:59 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I've got 1.3181 as first res for euro..then 1,3169. As time passes after news releases, the first 45 minutes to one hour seem to lag behind the real move. It looks like usd is stronger across the board..espeically aussie is still reacting.

london steamer 13:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin
Are you still happy with going long the usd/cad?

San Diego bobl 13:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...
gold moving down and usd/cad may benefit; I am legging into usd/cad now @ 1.2356 and will see if we can take narrow range to upside and add some more if we do.

gl/gt

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
madrid cvd 13:53 ///last time I looked I was a guy...LOL gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:55 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
You know news days...sometimes fundamental econ news makes a difference, sometimes not or isn't lasting. Aside from 2 short scalps I'm flat....

Chicago Goofy 13:55 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Is Aud/NZD now sitting at support level? Thanks.

madrid cvd 13:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:50 GMT March 1, 2005

Thank you sir/madam!?!?!?1
:-)

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:50///that was serendipity....naaaaah/ gt

Gen dk 13:52 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hobart 13:52 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
with the aussie breaking down thru the consolidation.This would makes a measured move target [also at support.] 78.20

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
madrid cvd 13:45 GMT March 1, 2005

January construction spending +0.7%
&
February manufacturing ISM 56.7

gold coast martin 13:50 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:45 GMT March 1, 2005
lol.....must be the tea leaves!!!...g/t

Auckland peat 13:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
some momentum in Eur$ finally. my short position suddenly in +ve after long wait

London Templar 13:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I am totally neutral in eur/gbp/jpy/usd/....

Waiting for some propper levels....

madrid cvd 13:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hello
can anyone tell me what to expect for these figures please

January construction spending (1500 GMT),
&
February manufacturing ISM (1500 GMT),
&
February vehicle sales (1700 GMT);

thankyou

River Falls_USA_ PB 13:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 06:01 GMT March 1, 2005

. ....EURO....using a top out figure of 13279 it will retreat to 13167

///I really cannot fathom how your flow analysis can be so precise! How do you achieve such pinoint accuracy at times? tia gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
London. 13:38 GMT March 1, 2005
Do you have any new data mate? TIA. Am wondering if a "peek" at RBA has filtered down to a chosen few..

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Boca Raton 12:59 GMT March 1, 2005
Big House Attica 12:28

When you see him in the yard, give him my regards.

Remove this "episode" please..this post started it. Thank you.

Gen dk 13:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:39 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
GVI Jay// I agree and and sure FF can remain the best of its kind on the WWW. Riga, I am not on the black list, Jay and I communicate often and productively about many things, he has a job to do and does it well..I am not offended. I find him most helpful and supportive to not only me but many with good intentions. Thank you.

San Diego bobl 13:39 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...
Update: I am flat eur/usd now; range bound with sellers around 1.3260 area and buyers 1.3180 area. In the middle now without any conviction for the moment. Neutral stance.

usd/jpy: sell bias however has worked it's way to support...
104.2000 - 104.000 : Neutral stance

gbp/usd: upward bias but cable has run out of gas it seems. still hold a little long however I am not giving much slack here. It has been gaming the 1.9200 level for a couple days and is mid-range now. If I didn't own it, I wouldn't initiate something new. I will not carry <1.9200.

Eur/jpy...still short and like this one. This pair could see a lot more downside and we have good cushion here.

More later....
gl/gt

London. 13:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
AUD/USD: Looking Like Trouble Is Looming For Antipodeans
IFR.

GVI Jay 13:32 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Riga,, we remove these episodes so the FF can get back to its purpose, which is market flow and discussion. It is not fair to those trading and who rely on our site as a soruce of information to have to sit through such episodes.

Global-View 13:30 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Auckland peat 13:20 GMT March 1, 2005 (and others)- Global-View has been opertaing for nearly 8 years and over this time our community has evolved, with members coming and going, often due to personal or business reasons than to anything to do with our site. To answer your question why Global-View members, including seasoned pros, are willing to contrubute in such an altrusitic manner.

The answer is community. Global-View is a community and as such, people are willing to contribute for they know if they give, they will receive more than they give in return. There is no ideal situation or utopia in this world but the spirit of cooperation seen on Global-View since its inception that continues today should be a model for the world community.

Riga Speculator JIM 13:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
I mean GV.

Valdez, you seem to be on their black list as of now... wtf.

Riga Jim 13:27 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
GVI, why are you removing posts?

Chicago Goofy 13:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
No good to remove the post..

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Aukland: in 5 minutes see response in political forum pls.

Riga Speculator JIM 13:22 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
13:19

...Oilman; Biscuitboy; ...

Auckland peat 13:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
a post get removed?

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:07 GMT March 1, 2005
GEP now trades in my own group which I formed consisting of only pros

So you admit to cannibalizing this forum then?
Hey , do what u want, we are all free and I am no pro. Just asking you a direct question.
To be honest I'm not sure what the incentive is for seasoned pros to share their expertise in this forum. I mean I think its great of course and I would not want to stop them. But in matters of profit theres not too many altruists out there.

HKG SK 13:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Looking for 200 pips by the end of the week. Please do that you can be another Soros.

HKG SK 13:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Time to buy USD/CHF NOW.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:55 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm
added cad NZ and some more

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:52 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Eur/Yen
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm
Might be shake a little

Gen dk 12:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

knoxville dan-k 12:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
well thats to bad traded along with him, hope he comes back, and if anyone has his e-mail i would like to have it or you can send him mine Jay tia, gl gt

Riga Speculator JIM 12:32 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
dan-k// Probably his trade size became too big to announce the trades publicly. He was (is?) an allegedly very successful fund manager.

Eilat Dolphin 12:32 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Well, besides attica!

Eilat Dolphin 12:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Templar/ Put your comuter on an indoor bicycle!
See you all later...

The readings were good!

knoxville dan-k 12:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
anyone know why Dallas gep retired from forum yesterday?

GVI john 12:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Did you know? Global-View.com posts comparisons for key financial benchmarks for seven major economies twice daily (NY and Far East Open) on its exclusive “Market Tracker” page. This is vital information for those starting to follow the fundamentals. Go to "Data and Tools" then click on "Market Tracker". Check out our other FREE content as well.

BUENOS AIRES F. Krueger 12:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
To melbourne farmacia: Hello, mate...if you are here let me know your views on Cable. TIA. & GT.

London Templar 12:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
BORED BORED!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 12:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:00 GMT March 1, 2005
USD Index (Cash) : My weekly cycle charts indicate that 81.58 is a projected supporting point. Projected resistant points are 83.14 and 84.69.


... {81.58}* // 81.97 - 82.36* - 82.75 - 83.14* - 83.52 - 83.91* - 84.30 // 84.69* ...

saloniko 2005 nk...1.4688 11:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Good Morning..

Euro took for another year the Oscar...

Windie trail ur stop frome 1.26 to 1.2999 to risk one more time for the Big shot....

Frome history March is a nice month for Euro...(Lets see if history say the truth)

Have a nice month..

nk

hobart 11:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
sorry ,thats in alanysis and news.

hobart 11:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
on the right hand menu on this page there is a link under data and tools, then click on forex tv ,
i'm not sure if the link works.

knoxville dan-k 11:09 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
good morning everyone! hope u all had a wonderful trading session, if i may ask does anyone have the address of the data feed for forex tv that is live feed?

Helsinki iw 11:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
True xyz, the Social Democrats have been unwilling to implement structural change because of their electorate and the unions have blocked the CDS every time. The key is that the power of the unions is eroding, as witnessed by the separate deals signed earlier. The crisis has reached critical mass obviously.

Halifax CB 11:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Helsinki iw 10:26 GMT March 1, 2005
Well - I sure hope it doesn't surprise again to the downside :). But can you put any meat on those bones? I realize there's the Agenda 2010, but I thought the impact of that was supposed to be at best marginal. But unemployment is up over 10%, the 'solid' jobs in manufacturing are on the decline; and there still is (apparently) a whole lot of room for improvements in the management of the social services. BTW, I don't have an estimate of taxes per capita - other than the blurb at the Foreign Affairs site - but isn't the VAT up over 16%? And the increase in the euro isn't helping....Anyway, if you've got some good news, I think there's lots of folks who would like to hear it...

London eaton 10:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Having a nightmare getting whipsawed by Cable here

london xyz 10:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
helsinki..

been hearing the same stuff from germany for over a decade, and still the economy is basically in recession, as it has been pretty much for years.

must be near depression status at 12 pct unemployed.

still the euro is at 1.32 which will delight all concerned in the relevent beaurocracies.

Helsinki iw 10:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Germany, which is the economic engine of Europe, may well surprise to the upside in late 05 or early 06. There are changes going on at the macro level where the labor force will become more flexible, benefits are going down, retirement age is going up and taxes are going down as well. This will free money towards consumption at the same time as the unit labor cost gap towards the rst of Europe is closing. Furthermore big German multinationals are cheaply valued while seeinf their export markets growing in Asia. The process is slow, but it is there.

London Templar 10:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
To stop a rumour before it starts: A Pakistan International Airlines plane caught fire earlier this morning at Manchester airport. All 300 passengers were taken off the plane safey. There were no injuries. The fire was related a problem with the undercarriage.

Gen dk 10:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk 09:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   

whose jobs???

Sing Suri 09:56 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Sterling up inspite of mixed/weak data - expect 9230 to cap - worst scenario calls for one final attempt above 9300 and then resumption of a sustained down trend.

Cape Town 09:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
What time does the RBA announce? Many thanks.

Geneva 09:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Singapore 09:42 GMT March 1, 2005

Its no matter of quality, its JOBS!!!!!

Singapore 09:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Geneva 09:34 GMT March 1, 2005

So what if the world is full of cheap China made goods - so long as the quality is good and durable, how does it matter who manufactures them.

Geneva 09:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
London. 09:20 GMT March 1, 2005

Trust me that with the euro at those levels, and the yaun blocked, Its the beiging of the end for europe econony.

Europe and the rest of the world is full of cheape china made goods.

London Templar 09:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Morning people! Whats the feel for today?

London. 09:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
German unemployment rose more than expected in Feb to 11.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms, versus the 11.6% forecast in an economist poll, and 11.4% in Jan. The number of unemployed people rose by 161,000 against a forecast rise of 92,500

Surabaya Medallion 09:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Is RBA announcement on 1 March at 17:30 NYT which mean 2 March in the morning at Asian Time? I'm going to buy on dip at 0.77xx.

London Iain 09:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:36 GMT March 1, 2005

It's one point i have had at the back of my mind. NFP, though, hasn't been anywhere near as influential as it was for the most part of 2004. Maybe due to bigger issues i.e twin defecit. Therefore, if eurusd were to get a head of steam up (to the downside) before the number on Friday I think the actual release would be mainly overlooked (other than an initial flurry). Also, the market tends to position itself away from big levels before the number so that 100points either way is easy on the back of the release. This fact in itself would lead me to expect eurusd would be lower going into the numbers. I guess time will tell.

Gen dk 09:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 09:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
The Australian dollar's resilient performance after disappointing trade figures last Friday doesn't mean the currency is invincible. On the contrary, the currency's recent rally close to eight-year highs is looking ripe for a correction. An expected rise in Australian interest rates this week has been well discounted, speculators have pushed their longs to extreme positions, and higher commodity prices are failing to provide the support they once did. "The Australian dollar is looking vulnerable," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics in New York. If nothing else, he noted, the Reserve Bank of Australia isn't about to raise Australian interest rates as far as the Federal Reserve is prepared to raise U.S. rates. "Since Christmas, U.S. 90-day rates have gone up 50 basis points while Australian rates have risen by only 25," Weinberg noted. However, this hasn't stopped the Australian currency from cashing in for now, especially as the return of carry trades made its 5.25% cash rate even more attractive than ever, compared with U.S. rates at just 2.50%. This helped to ensure that last Friday's disappointing AUD2.72 billion trade gap for January - the second worst on record - nearly passed as a nonevent.
Instead, said Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns in London, the market was more concerned with "bedding down for the RBA's rate announcement."
The bank is widely expected to announce a 25 basis-point rate rise after its latest policy meeting is over late Tuesday.
The rise itself is well discounted, with the bank expected to respond to continued signs of capacity constraints in the Australian economy by tightening policy. Some reckon there are still more rate increases to come. But Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London, said the bank's "accompanying statement may disappoint those hawks looking for a signal of an appetite for a swift follow-up rate rise."
Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns in London, reckons there is a risk that the central bank won't raise rates at all. He warns that it might be best not to be long of the Australian dollar over the rate announcement.
Even if events don't turn out to be so unexpected on the rate front, experts still anticipate that the Australian currency will start to lose some of its recent support.
Although the rise in commodity prices, in line with the improved global economic outlook, has been instrumental in helping the currency higher, some believe the link may start to weaken. Calyon's Maher, for example, said that "this justification looks rather weak given Australian exports cannot respond to higher prices given widely noted capacity constraints."
As last Friday's trade numbers showed, exports remained flat, while imports rose 2% on the month.

New figures on speculative positions in the currency futures market also give reason to be wary of further gains. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show that speculative longs in the Australian currency have reached a new record high.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:47 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Euro for the whole month is playing
1.3460 to 1.2880
No trend

prague mark 08:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
to me german news are already priced in - so eur/usd will go up after aftr official announcement - gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
London Iain 08:13 GMT March 1, 2005
Good comments just to add to it. I believe that the bulls have lost their momentum as well and the 3300 barrier is safe for now. We shall see what the bears can do now with the momentum on their side. I still see 3130-40 and 3070-80 as key support. They will have to take this out soon too but looming in the horizon is the NFP or Bloody Friday and that may lead the market into a range till the data is released IMHO. Peace and GT

London. 08:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
US considers incentives for Iran

Suspicions remain over Iran's nuclear ambitions despite extensive inspections
The US is considering offering economic incentives to Iran in exchange for abandoning any plans to develop a nuclear weapon, US officials say
BBC

London Iain 08:27 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Fwiw. For the two views below I'm working with questionable elliottwave counts. We should be playing out a large wave 4 correction before the final big fifth wave takes us to new highs. The reason that I see additional downside in both pairs now is because of time and size. I just cannot see that the recent downturn is either big enough or has taken long enough to correct such a large third wave (cable 1.5460 - 1.9550 from 9th Apr '03 and eurusd 1.05 - 1.3650 from 21st March). My risk is ultimately against the highs and risk/reward obviously makes this trade very viable.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Any Trade digital Options?TIA

London Iain 08:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
CABLE. Similar story. Very bearish (looking for 1.8200 region, a=c). Big support i'm watching starts at 1.9140 - 100hr ma and congestion support. This stretches to 1.9050 - 200hr ma and bottom of congestion support. Only a break of this lower parameter would give the suggestion that a lasting top is in. Otherwise, on the topside, minor new highs in little fifth waves are still possible before the reversal.

London. 08:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Posted article on Financial Forum ---------------->>>>>>>>

London. 08:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
German unemployment at its highest since 1930s

LINKGerman unemployment shot up to 5.2m last month, its highest level in 73 years, dragging Europe's largest economy deeper into its most serious political crisis in months.The statistics, to be released on Tuesday, have been obtained by Financial Times Deutschland, the FT's sister newspaper in Germany. They will increase public pressure on the government to reconsider the wait-and-see attitude it has adopted on economic reforms since the beginning of the year

London Iain 08:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD. Textbook stuff overnight. The eurusd break of the 100hr ma lead to a retest of the line before a quick drop to the 200hr ma and the current bounce we're seeing. I am still very bearish (eventually looking for 1.23-1.25) and am on the lookout for a top to form. This may well now be in place. A sustained break of the 200hr line at around 1.3165 would be the first sign of overall weakness. Thereafter, a far more crucial cluster of ma's lie in wait on daily chart, beginning at 1.3075 (20day) and stretching to 1.3030. With the daily stochs rolling over from overbought, there should at least be a test of this cluster in the near term. That said, I still wouldn't be surprised to see one last ditch attempt at a new high in the very near term before a decent reversal takes hold.
Incidentally and also bearish, there was a nice trendline on an hourly chart which has now been successfully overcome - it currently comes in at 1.3200 and a move above would be needed to suggest that there is upside scope today.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
aussie should be a buy at 0.780 this week

SYD SL 08:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
anyone have any key indicators on the AUD?

Singapore FH 07:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
55 mins prague

Hong Kong Qindex 07:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
In view of a recent strong movement in commodities I am not surprised if the Fed will increase its rate by more than 1/4.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:34 GMT March 1, 2005
CRB Index (Cash) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the projected supporting barrier at 295.51 // 296.20 is going to be challenged once the market retreives and penetrates through 298.29.


... 292.73* ... 294.12* ... // 295.51* - 296.20 - 296.90 - 297.59 - (298.29)* - 298.98 - 299.67* - 300.37 - 301.06* // ... 302.45* ... 303.84* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 07:12 GMT March 1, 2005
Comex Copper (Cash) : The "Super Magnet" of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.4967. The market has a strong momentum if it can move away from 1.4967. The odds are high that the market will test the supporting strength of 1.4743.

... 1.4072* ... 1.4296* ... // 1.4520* - 1.4631 - 1.4743* - 1.4855 - {1.4967}* - 1.5079 - 1.5191* - 1.5303 - 1.5415* // ... 1.5638* ... 1.5862* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT March 1, 2005
Come Gold : Weekly Cycle (Apr) : The market is negative as it was rejected from the barrier of 437.4 // 440.2 in the last New York session. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market can penetrate through the projected supporting point at 428.9.


... 417.6 // 420.4 - 423.3 - 426.1 - (428.9) - 431.7 - 434.6 - 437.4 // {440.2} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 04:45 GMT March 1, 2005
Crude Oil (Weekly Cycle) : The "Super Magnet" of my weekly cycle is positioning at 53.18. The market momentum is very strong if it can overcome the projected resistance at 53.18 and move away from the "Suoer Magnet". It may cause panic buying if the market can trade above 54.14. Projected supporting points are 45.99 and 49.58.


... 45.99* ... 47.79* ... // 49.58* - 50.48 - 51.38* - 52.28 - {53.18}* - 54.07 - 54.97* - 55.87 - 56.77* // ... 58.56* ... 60.36* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 04:05 GMT March 1, 2005
Soybeans (Weekly Cycle) : A projected supporting point is positioning at 574.7 and a projected resistant point is expected at 633.3.


... 560.1* - 567.4 // {574.7}* - 582.0 - 589.4* - 596.7 - (604)* - 611.3 - 618.7* - 626.0 - 633.3* // 640.7 - 648.0* ...

Sydney E.M. 07:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Deficit soars to $15bn record
THE current account deficit widened by $900 million or 6 per cent to a record $15.174 billion in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.The bureau said in its balance of payments release that the deficit on goods and services rose 3 per cent, or $180 million, to $6.9 billion.
The income deficit rose $758 million, or 10 per cent, to $8.2 billion.Australia's net foreign debt rose $15 billion to $422 billion, which was also a record, the ABS said. It was offset slightly by the stronger exchange rate to $8 billion. The bureau substantially revised the deficit recorded in the September quarter, increasing it to $14.3 billion from $13.7 billion.The increase in the December quarter was due to large increases in goods debits and services debits, which both rose by two per cent.There was some good news, however, with goods credits up about three per cent.Rural goods fell 10 per cent, with volumes down seven per cent and prices down three per cent.The biggest falls were for cereal grains and preparations which slid 23 per cent.Non-rural goods rose four per cent, with volumes up five per cent but prices down one per cent.The biggest increase was for mineral fuels, up 14 per cent, with coal, coke and briquettes up five per cent.Among imports, consumption goods fell marginally, with total volume down two per cent while prices dropped a similar amount.The largest increases were for household electrical item imports, although increases were recorded for transport equipment and leisure goods.Capital goods imports fell two per cent, with volumes dropping three per cent and prices down five per cent.The biggest drop was for civil aircraft (down 16 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (down eight per cent).Australia's terms of trade – the ratio of export prices to import prices – again increased. The current account deficit as a proportion of GDP rose to 6.5 per cent.

Sydney E.M. 07:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Deficit soars to $15bn record
THE current account deficit widened by $900 million or 6 per cent to a record $15.174 billion in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.The bureau said in its balance of payments release that the deficit on goods and services rose 3 per cent, or $180 million, to $6.9 billion.
The income deficit rose $758 million, or 10 per cent, to $8.2 billion.Australia's net foreign debt rose $15 billion to $422 billion, which was also a record, the ABS said. It was offset slightly by the stronger exchange rate to $8 billion. The bureau substantially revised the deficit recorded in the September quarter, increasing it to $14.3 billion from $13.7 billion.The increase in the December quarter was due to large increases in goods debits and services debits, which both rose by two per cent.There was some good news, however, with goods credits up about three per cent.Rural goods fell 10 per cent, with volumes down seven per cent and prices down three per cent.The biggest falls were for cereal grains and preparations which slid 23 per cent.Non-rural goods rose four per cent, with volumes up five per cent but prices down one per cent.The biggest increase was for mineral fuels, up 14 per cent, with coal, coke and briquettes up five per cent.Among imports, consumption goods fell marginally, with total volume down two per cent while prices dropped a similar amount.The largest increases were for household electrical item imports, although increases were recorded for transport equipment and leisure goods.Capital goods imports fell two per cent, with volumes dropping three per cent and prices down five per cent.The biggest drop was for civil aircraft (down 16 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (down eight per cent).Australia's terms of trade – the ratio of export prices to import prices – again increased. The current account deficit as a proportion of GDP rose to 6.5 per cent.

prague mark 07:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
what time german numbers are out

Los Angeles ss 07:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Suri.

Sing Suri 07:04 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
UK NATIONWIDE FEBRUARY S.A. HOUSE PRICES +0.5% MM, +10.2% YY, YY LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2001

Los Angeles ss 07:02 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
anyone know the nationwide survey results (gbp)

Auckland peat 06:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Respect : If price reverses direction when it reaches a moving average (or trend line) we say that price has respected that moving average (or trend line).

Yo trend show some respek lol

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:48 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
1.9143

Gold Coast RC 06:44 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Within 10 pips
Whats your stop on cable tks

London. 06:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
JPMorgan says consider carry trade position for widening USD-SGD interest rate gap, . Borrow 1-year SGD at just over 2%, place in rolling 1-month USD deposit, now 2.75%. Bank expects Fed to raise fed funds target another 75 bps by June, possibly 125 bps from current level by year-end

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
swissie
the same..to 1.17

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:24 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Longing Euro on Drop
I think I missed the level
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm
with each 20 pips drop will long a 1 lot

Sydney E.M. 06:22 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
The currency is just vulnerable to a really significant correction at some stage," Mr Koukoulas said.TD Securities chief economist Stephen Koukoulas said the numbers were abysmal due to an over-valued exchange rate.

Auckland peat 06:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
yeh Dallas GEP spill dude. Why u gappin?
Are you like just out of our league, or did someone chop your fingers off.

London. 06:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Euro Falls on Expectations German Unemployment Hit Postwar High
The U.S. economy probably created 225,000 jobs this month, the most since October, according to a separate survey by Bloomberg News ahead of the Labor Department's payrolls report on March 4.

The contrasting outlook in Europe and the U.S. ``is a double whammy for the euro,'' said Callum Henderson, global head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. ``It reduces the inclination to be short dollars this week ahead of the payrolls report.''

The euro may fall to $1.3050 this week and as low as 120 yen in the next 12 months, Henderson said.

In other trading, the dollar rose to 1.1660 Swiss francs, from 1.1631 francs. The British pound was at $1.9196, from $1.9210.
``There's rising downside risk for the euro,'' said Robert Rennie, a currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. ``We're getting good, solid growth in the U.S. and we're not getting it from Europe.''

The euro may drop to $1.28 in the next few weeks, Rennie said.

Springdale BDH 06:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Dallas - GEP I would really like to see you keep posting here. I have always really valued your commentary.

Syd 06:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
National accounts data due Wednesday is expected to show the Australian economy slammed into a wall in the fourth quarter of last year.

Just two hours prior to the release of the data the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hike interest rates, as it looks ahead to emerging capacity constraints rather than backward to the historical fourth quarter data.

Dragged by disappointing profits and inventories data and a blow out in the current account deficit, the economy is expected to grow 0.4% on-quarter in the three months to Dec. 31, translating to a 2.0% annual pace, according to a Dow Jones survey of 20 economists conducted Tuesday.

That compares with 0.3% on-quarter and 3.0% on-year growth in the third quarter of 2004.

Economists slashed their fourth quarter gross domestic growth forecasts from an earlier median 0.6% on-quarter and 2.2% on-year expectation after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a record current account deficit Tuesday.

The current account deficit widened to a seasonally adjusted A$15.17 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004 from an upwardly revised A$14.27 billion in the third quarter

The bureau said the deterioration in net exports subtracts 0.6 percentage point from the income-based estimate of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.

Economists had expected that trade made a negative contribution of 0.4 percentage point in the quarter.

On Monday, the bureau said company profits rose a lower-than-expected 0.3% on-quarter in the three months to Dec. 31 while inventory levels fell 0.3% over that period.

Those readings also failed to live up to expectations and also feed into the fourth quarter GDP reading.

Despite the disappointing fourth quarter result, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hike interest rates just two hours before the GDP data is released Wednesday, as it focuses on signs of robust domestic demand and emerging capacity constraints, particularly in the labor market.

gold coast martin 06:01 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:52 GMT February 28, 2005
gold coast martin 01:15 GMT February 28, 2005
Good morning /good evening...

. ....EURO..Although the euro is a bit player in the current scheme of things(due to the yen still driving markets) using a top out figure of 13279 it will retreat to 13167......g/t for today.......

ABOVE POST 1:15 GMTstill applies....g/t

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm
it all there

Lyons Lion 05:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

What time frame friend - early today you said of a 400 pip move in cable - was it up? GL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
GM All
Long Cable PT at 1.9350
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/Range.htm

Cbj Jake 05:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Dallas Gep: thanks dallas for all your calls and analysis. As I told you I took them home and fooled with them and learned much - even your patience and courtesy told me a few things. Moments come to an end - whether we talk subatomic particles,seemingly eternal buildings or loved ones caught in the archetypal forces of nature - even two thoughts have a distance between them. So I valued every note you wrote as if it would be the last. I wish you and yours every blessing.
Cheers.

Singapore FH 05:18 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
de merde, precisely lol

Syd 05:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fecal he means merde

Singapore FH 05:14 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hobart, no, i meant fecal so as to represent that excrement lol.

Syd 05:11 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Singapore FH when its trending I agree, but when range trading like the Aud has been just lately the RSI is the best indicator. but everyone to their own as long as it makes you money , it works for me and I dont lose my shirt with it

hobart 05:08 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
singapore ,do you mean fickle?
fecal has an entirely different meaning.

Singapore FH 05:04 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
i find RSI to be often a fecal, for lack of harsher terms, indicator. on trends it always says over"whatever" and people can often lose their shirts. i'm sure there are way better oscillators out there, or better usage of it

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:58 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd// Sure enough I did an RSI (relative strength indicator for newer traders) on AUD/JPY: 3 yr (needs to go down as nearly overbought now), hourly chart yielded the opposite..needs to go up as almost touching the oversold line.

Syd 04:35 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Sell AUD/USD via options as best way to capture bearish AUD/USD view, writes Standard Chartered Bank; recommends either of 2 strategies - buy 6-month AUD put/USD call options with 0.7500 strike or buy 6-month AUD put/USD call with double knockout triggers at 0.6900 and 0.8100. Says upside momentum fading from charts perspective, RBA rate hikes already priced in, AUD/USD overvalued on OECD PP estimate, Australia current account deficit increasingly unsustainable.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
tks Syd. Will do.

Syd 04:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez Aussie is safer to play at the extremes, middle ranges always catch you out , keep an eye on the IMM contracts each week and RSI

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:51 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Ltn// Tks for heads up. I haven't checked archives yet tonight..appreciate it amigo.

Ltn th 03:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Valdez. I posted briefly last nite abt extra yards of AUD activity positioning to fund acquisitions/takeovers. The effect of this could outweigh RBA business. Depends on how treasuries of those involved work and arrangements with stock brokers. Even though institutions will extend credit they would want to hedge.

gold coast martin 03:39 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
fwiw...Part t/p on previous posted positions......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
..ON emails tonite..tons of 'em..bailed on aussie short at 7884...euro is longing..so is aussie for a bit..prefer to be flat until rate decision actually. I am not good in whip.

knoxville dan-k 03:26 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
well im flat for now and pleased with both trades, remember i got hit on the usdjpy, usdcad, the other day when servers went down so i have a little to make up, the servers went down right when the usdjpy took its short and i was long could not close trade for 20 min, got hurt, nature of the beast tho, and 1st time its happened so i will overlook, but its off to bed for me got to get the yearly dr's exam in morning so u all have a great trading morning, evening or night see ya!

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Knoxville Dan k, if marty thinks Aussie will volitize, maybe it would be best to tp on half now and let half fend for itself at 25 stop..and reload SMALL BETS on peaks next 15 hours? This can get addictive in longer term plays..and reloading on peaks a little here and a little there can dig into your margin bit by bit until you start to wiggle a lot. A bird in the hand is worth 100 in the bush. (my modification happened after I started trading fx!)

Clear this up please. I have heard March 3 and March 2 as the announcement dat but the calendar I posted below clearly says March 1.

AUD RBA CASH TARGET (MAR) 22:30 17:30 5.50% 5.25%
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html

Would the real RBA date please stand up?

knoxville dan-k 03:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
well guess thats the pip raider in me, lol, gt to all

knoxville dan-k 03:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
stopped out usdjpy @ 73+20

knoxville dan-k 03:16 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
stopped out aud/usd @80 +50

Hong Kong Qindex 03:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
The followings are still valid in the Asian Session.


Hong Kong Qindex 17:05 GMT February 28, 2005
USD/CHF :


... 1.1492 . 1.1523 // 1.1554 - 1.1586 - 1.1617 - 1.1648 - 1.1679 // 1.1710 - 1.1742 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:41 GMT February 28, 2005
USD/JPY :


... 102.68 ... 103.04 ... // 103.40 - 103.58 - 103.76 - 103.94 - (104.13) - 104.31 - 104.49 - 104.67 - 104.85 // ... 105.21 - 105.57 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 13:58 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/JPY : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 138.00


Hong Kong Qindex 13:25 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/JPY : I am bias on the downside. It is because the market is now trading outside the daily cycle normal trading range. In other words something is not normal and it is a warning signal for a possible downward trending movement is going to develop in the next few days

Hong Kong Qindex 12:59 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/JPY :


... 136.58 - 137.01 // 137.43 - 137.85 - (138.28) - 138.70 - 139.12 // 139.54 - 139.97 ...


I am bias on the downside.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:26 GMT February 28, 2005
USD/CHF :


... 1.1535 // 1.1592 - {1.1650} - 1.1708 // 1.1765 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:37 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Barriers (1.32 - 1.33)


... // 1.3229 - 1.3242 - 1.3268 - 1.3289 - 1.3303 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:26 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/USD :


... 1.3213 // 1.3243 - 1.3274 - 1.3305 // 1.3336 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT February 28, 2005
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle


... 1.3075 ... 1.3129 ... // 1.3184* - 1.3211 - 1.3238* - 1.3265 - {1.3293} - 1.3320 - 1.3347* - 1.3374 - 1.3401* // ... 1.3456 ... 1.3510 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:39 GMT February 28, 2005
Spot Gold :


... 426.7 - 428.7 // 430.7 - 432.6 - {434.6} - 436.6 - 438.6 // 440.5 - 442.5 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 13:19 GMT February 27, 2005
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 199.63 - 201.16 - 202.70.


... 195.01 - 195.78 // 196.55 - 197.32 - 198.09 - 198.86 - (199.63) - 200.39 - 201.16 - 201.93 - 202.70 // 203.47 - 204.24 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 12:00 GMT February 27, 2005
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range from my 44-day cycle is 0.6937 - 0.6877. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 0.6817 and 0.7057 respectively.


... 0.6817 // 0.6877 - 0.6937 - 0.6997 // {0.7057} ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:56 GMT February 27, 2005
EUR/GBP : Weekly Cycle


... 0.6749 // 0.6793 - 0.6838 - {0.6882} - 0.6927 - 0.6971 // 0.7016 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 04:59 GMT February 27, 2005
USD/CAD : Weekly cycle barriers are located at 1.2307 - 1.2340 - 1.2389 - 1.2461 - 1.2481 - 1.2500 - 1.2575 - 1.2586.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:14 GMT February 27, 2005
AUD/USD : Weekly cycle barriers are located at 0.7809 - 0.7828 - 0.7850 - 0.7866 - 0.7880.

gold coast martin 03:05 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
7319=7919...

knoxville dan-k 03:04 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
looking back eurusd was a great short @1.3245 off para, sar 30min candle chart but did not take it oh well,

austin edgy 03:04 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
anyone see the bottom of the eur/usd jar? Looking at a buy about this level

gold coast martin 03:03 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
re:AUD...Volatility will increase from now to the announcement and statement release...the aud can be traded like the cable from now until then...so there will be swings in either direction therefore providing food for both bulls and bears..play it on a hourly/daily basis,either direction,take profit when you can and leave a position for the post data scenario...levels?....7319 top out to a 7809 bottom prior to data....g/t

knoxville dan-k 03:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
go Valdez! and good luck, i shorted with the mind track of the news then in mind, its usually a 50/50% chance of a good trade used a 30 pip stop loss which i figured was high, and its worked out great, good luck to all, dan slides a martini to valdez!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
That's the spirit Dan. If you do get nervous tp on a third or even half your stuff, leave the other half at 25 stop. You have to ask yourself, is 25 pips worth tp-ing on or is 250 pips a viable risk? I've been playing Aussie down in and out the past couple hours...but look at the 1 or 3-4 hour chart...it's whippy...very very whippy. Personally I put in a short right about here and will just let the thing go it's merry way..if I get stopped, what's new? If not...whata ride!

knoxville dan-k 02:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
i have removed my target price on the aud for now, will ride this with a 25pip sl, and allow it to run for a while, such as it is that i am a pip raider this will be one of the few so far that i will give a long term chance to, thanks martin and all for help, and i have 35pips locked in already so if it takes me out c'est le vei glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:53 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
OK marty! That's what I suspected but I wanted to hear this from you. And Syd confirmed my thoughts as well. Let's face it, you guys LIVE THERE and have a feel for this much more than I would. I need this short, believe me, to make up for some stupid stuff I did earlier. Am wondering if it's time to pour on the coal but that's what I did last time and got caught. (Yes Bob, I won't do the same stupid stuff again and again!)

washington matt 02:47 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
So it will sink futher either way?
I am about to switch my position, as I was following the recent incline, but I have lost all of that with the sudden drops today. If it is going to drop another 50+ pips, selling now would recover the loss I took today. Is this what I should do?

gold coast martin 02:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
FWIW....while we are concentrating on a minor market move(RBA),do not forget the big picture driving the market.....Watch the YEN!!!!.....G/T

gold coast martin 02:42 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 02:29 GMT March 1, 2005
Lets look at that simply:...in the event of a NO rate hike ,you will see very very quick acceleration of further unwounding of carry trades to the tune of 250-300 pips within 48 hours..the other side of the equation is: a rate hike,dampening of further IMMEDIATE rates hikes and a 250-300 pip down within 4 days.....in view of recent economic data whethere there is a hike or not the aud as well as the kiwi as i said many times before is a disaster waiting to happen..we need to remember that the only reason the aud is at these high levels is the potential of more future rate differentials..once water is poured on this,the aud @72 in the medium term is looking better and better......so either way of a decision tomorrow it is the same result for the aud...in fact it will be a relief for the market to get this RBA thing out of the way as it has been a hindrance to both bulls and bears....g/t

Chicago Goofy 02:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
SELL dollar across the board now.

washington matt 02:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
wow, I am loser today. got caught in the AUD plummet. you guys think it is goign to drop another 50+ pips?

knoxville dan-k 02:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
ill drink 20 then

knoxville dan-k 02:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
well r they as good as a vodka martini, shaken not stirred--lol

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Go Danny! (a cold Guiness [beer x 10] slides down to Dan.

knoxville dan-k 02:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
i am up well up on my aud trade right now however i usually pip raid rathar than swing, also i set targets like right now i have a target of .7857 on the aud, i would like any suggestions any has to offer, i currently have 35pips profit locked on stop loss. tia, glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd// I totally agree..the econ needs help, not hindrance and since the econ is not skyrocketing then why raise rates? No inflation worries would preclude a rate hike. I think Knoxville has it right..keep those Aussie shorts with that stop peering down closely on profits. EUR/USD seems to be following the descent line as well. And as mentioned below by marty, the statement accompanying the release is important to consider. AND IF THERE IS NO MENTION OF FUTURE HIKES then Aussie will short well it seems to me.

Eilat Dolphin 02:30 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thanks Martin. Luminous day !

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:29 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thank you marty. But if RBA does NOT hike rates...since a hike is priced in already then to what level do you think Aussie will fall short term? 100-200 pips down? That was more the meat of my question sorry I wasn't specific. The info you gave however is as always most useful!!! Thanks.

knoxville dan-k 02:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
well martin u may not beleive this but i am short the aud lol, glgt, unpluged myself from the eurusd usdjpy, however im long the usdjpy pairs at your call entry off my parabolic sar 15 min, 4 candles ago glgt

Syd 02:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez Still see the RBA holding off on rates tomorrow , UK have been threatening but still held off, economy as you will see is slowing , the last thing the manufacturers here need is a higher $A. I think most of the articles lately explain well the Australian economy and the AFR so called mouth of the RBA was totally wrong last time , he has no more been given the wink from the RBA than anyone else. The last thing the RBA want is a housing collapse to push us into recession.

Fear of rate rise widespread: poll

gold coast martin 02:25 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 01:48 GMT February 28, 2005
RE:AUD.
FWIW ...The expected RBA rate hike on wednesday is already priced in by the market so there will not be any sharp spike when and if it is announced..What is important is the acompanying statement that will hint whether there are any further hikes in the near future...It is the statement that the market is right now speculating will make aud resume the 7955 levels and beyond...Such a move of course has already occured and it is unlikely ,thereby putting a squeeze on the carry trades to slowly unwound and force aud down towards 7809 initially with a 7757 thereafter....

Above still applicable for tomorrow..Short and long term bias is down for AUD as expressed many times before.....g/t for now and today...

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
marty, no spec on RBA's decision? I know before you were pretty convinced regardless of RBA sword rattling that RBAwas basically telling a fib about raising rates. Any word from the "little birdie"?

Singapore FH 02:19 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
S and P says Australia net foreign debt is a risk to the nation's credit rating.

source: bloombie

gold coast martin 02:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
gold coast martin 06:11 GMT February 28, 2005
fwiw...SHORT :NZD@...7281...STOP@..7327...T/P....7080...
;AUD@7921...STOP@7978....T/P....7783.....
LONG...YEN@10453...T/P....10578.....STOP...10391....
SHORT....GBP@19231.T/P....19083.....STOP@19297
CAD@12351....T/P..12496....STOP@12297...STOPPED OUT ON THIS POSITION BUT DIRECTION AND TARGET STILL VALID....

Please note above positions are added core positions and profit will be taken progressively....depending on market action...g/t
Above positions still apply today.....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Knoxville..I wonder if it wouldn't be a good idea to go ahead and protect more earnings on your Aussie short and move your stop down to the same 25 pt tolerance? Tell you what, you are sitting on a darned good position if Aussie tanks tomorrow. The RBA announcement I read was at 22:30 GMT Feb 1 (today's session).

AUD RBA CASH TARGET (MAR) 22:30 est:5.50% prev:5.25%

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html

London Templar 02:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Placed an order at 1.3180 and 60 with a 45 stop...

Look to TP at 1.3265...

Otherwise I am selling on the highs again 1.3275

London Templar 02:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD: We're not sure if there are really big stops below the 1.3200 figure, as rumoured in the market earlier; big German bank is bidding it down here. (Singapore spot desk)

London Templar 02:06 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
EURUSD: US bank and investment house selling from 1.3210; comes to 1.3202 low

Jr London Herts 01:57 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
added smll shorts aus 85.....will add short kiwi thru 35..back to bed g/l knox

Eilat Dolphin 01:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Valdez/ Excellent diagnosis. Simple. Scientific. The head down! (not the Guiness!)

Never thought of that.

Instead to creating dangerous cells collisions each inside our skulls, we may build a simple raft...

Bourbon island should do perfect: latitude, weather, cuties, french pipes (= a clintonette in English).

knoxville dan-k 01:47 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
been short aud/usd all day up 50pips with 25 locked in no target unless a wiggle in market takes me out so +25 for sure gl gt

Jr London Herts 01:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
i follow a trend system..guys been long euro 12976 sf short 11950...on auss he is long..but turn lvl on aus up to 7810 to short...cud be interesting 24-48 hrs...

Eilat Dolphin 01:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Herts/ I got it upside down: it's now that he should be speaking; isn't that why we are here... unless of course...

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:38 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Dolphin, I'd like a pair of cufflinks and a tietack set please once you get that desing down. I think the Aussies trade so well is because of vitimin G (Guiness) and the fact the blood rushes to their heads standing upside down like that..gives them more mental powers over the $nak€ No?

Sgp Deeps 01:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Costelliino says High A$ and infrastructure bottlenecks limiting exports - addressing one thing at a time - Higher A$ limiting exports , so allow aussie to weaken (RBA can start the first Selling). Infrastructure bottlenecks : Dont really understand whatever that means (my aussie mates can answer that) but higher interest rates are one of the many hurdles for growth in any sector. Higher rates inherently carry higher project costs for infrastructure development - so why raise rates tomorrow. Two plus Two is Four in simple maths - Why not it be so in Aud/usd trading as well. Sell sell sell .. to glory - one would be tempted to think. But then during the last one month it never looked to be a buyer's delight either.. and yet i(like many of my colleagues here) bit the dust!!

Rye, NY et 01:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Forget it!

knoxville dan-k 01:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
dont know what a stout is, lol, i like the james bond special

London Templar 01:33 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:28 GMT March 1, 2005

As ever Dolph - u are keeping me entertained

Jr London Herts 01:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
am i right in saying costello spoke early yesterday and stated that he was not preparing auss for int rate rise (ok knowing that rba..independent on decisions)?

Rye, NY et 01:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Here

London Templar 01:31 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
right i couldnt sleep whats the coup de' tat?

Rye, NY et 01:30 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Important Information:
Here

Eilat Dolphin 01:28 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Yea Valdez! They protect our southern underbelly rather well!

I'll have to design a specific medal for the Knights of the Great Oceans who even fight upside down while protecting our nights:

A Silver Southern Cross on blue enamel, knocking on the head of the green E$naconda whose eyes are shiny rubis and hissing tongue a golden Y of Yen.

Jr London Herts 01:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
As well as normal guiness,,,do u get ice cold guiness on tap out there?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
guiness it's a stout

Adelaide albbar 01:23 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
My five cents - one-off rise of .25 highly likely and more than priced in. Medium term forecast for Oz economy gloomy with dependency on Chinese exports to keep commodities rising and China apparently slowing down growth. Therefor expect statement to play down further rises for 2005 and A$ to fall on this statement.

knoxville dan-k 01:21 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Guiness a beer ?

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:20 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
bob L, got anything on ye olde system that looks promising this evening amigo or are we waiting for all that juicy data tomorrow?

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:17 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
One of the social highlights of my trip to NZ some years back was Guiness on tap. Being a Yank it was quite novel. AND DANGEROUS. LOL

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:13 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Thank you farmacia. Next? (Valdez slides a Guiness down to farmacia..has two waiting for marty and Syd.)

Global-View GVILearning 01:12 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
We recently launched GVILearning,com, the Global-View learning site. On it is our live Help Forum, where you can carry on non-market related discussions or ask questions as long as you are patient as either we or one of our Global-View community members will answer it. There is currentlu an unanswered question on how to draw trendlines there right now. The Help Forum can be accessed directly from the Global-View site or by Clicking Here

melbourne farmacia 01:07 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez
Done deal mate... priced in... accompanying statement holds the key on short term dump or pump.. wed's outcome will likely adjust trading range be it up down etc..
Always had the view since early 05, that Aud trades sideways between 0.75 - 0.80 until the market plays the next fear card.. that said, looking for peak mid year. GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:00 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Looks to me euro is ready to bounce up a bit. Afterall,it would be droll without volitility.

Martin, Syn, farmacia...what do you guys think please about RBA and the continuing saga of the rate hike please? You all can answer at once, we can handle it. LOL _{(pretty please?)}

Rockford BDR 00:49 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Bahrain 10 pips
You still around? If you are, could please explain those charts for me again. lol maybe in the help forum.
TIA

Los Angeles ss 00:46 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
LAFXnew -- Looks like it may be basing in the 9180.s for now. pullback low 2/27 was 1.9165 and may serve as further support if it goes down from here. I suspect that later in the asian session it will go up though, in anticipation of the Nationwide Home Price Survey at 700 gmt: if I recall last time, the survey release really drove cable up. There is a lot of data coming out in the London and US session re: cable and usd also to watch out for. So we may expect some volatility today with cable. If Martin and GEP ares on board now, I'd be interested in their comments as well.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:45 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
farmacia//ALSO, what is your op on RBA today? I want several of you Aussies to comment..personal gut feeling. And do you think Aussie will short like 200 p if NO rate hike or is this way over hyped?

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd// What's your take today on RBA late today? Are you still with Marty that RBA won't raise rates?

melbourne farmacia 00:43 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Costello probably going to blame Labor states over censored data again..

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd//Yeah mate, I saw...had the post window up while you were posting..that's all..looks like the chart hicupped a bit, evidently not long lasting the dip???

LA Fxnew 00:40 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
hi .. any idea about cable at this time?
thanks

Syd 00:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez look below

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
SYD// sorry, I had the post window up while you were posting...thanks for ans my Q in advance. LOL

Syd 00:37 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello calls 0115 GMT media conference in Melbourne

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:36 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
ANY IDEAS on Aussie downspike minutes ago? Euro is steady.

Syd 00:34 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Australia 4Q Curr Acct Deficit A$15.2B; Forecast A$14.3B
Australia 4Q Net Exports To Subtract 0.6 Pct Pt From GDP Australian Net Foreign Debt +4.0% To A$421.85B In 4Q
Australian 4Q Curr Acct Deficit Widest On Record

Sydney E.M. 00:15 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD Could Slump If RBA Keeps Rates Steady

Ltn th 00:10 GMT March 1, 2005 Reply   
Syd. From my reading of this:-
http://www.abareconomics.com/australiancommodities/Pdf/economicoverview.pdf
I gained the impression they may have been talking PW value of USD at time of compilation. This agrees with comments and tabulated data.
The last two pages of the document are quite illuminating.