Gen dk 23:50 GMT May 1, 2005
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Syd 23:29 GMT May 1, 2005
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While market to stay watchful on CNY over China holidays, some say given bouts of similar speculation past 12 months, latest rumors may also fade: FX trader at big Japan bank in U.S. says while he's been "very skeptical" in past about constant ebbs, flows in speculation, recent comments from U.S., China make him believe "something is in the air"; but at same time, likely result is "token move" of 3-5% next 3 months. IDEAglobal's Sean Callow says while talk of CNY revalue "far exceeds anything seen over the last three years" IDEAglobal still believes there won't be early move from China
Syd 22:39 GMT May 1, 2005
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It will be a testing week for AUD, with key events and data to shape medium-term direction, says David Mozina, currency strategist at ABN AMRO. Says RBA is likely to keep rates steady for an extended period, likely to reverse course over a 12-18 month horizon. Despite AUD's pop higher Friday, levels above 0.7800 should be seen as good levels to sell, he says, with retail trade data likely to be weak, trade data likely to be nasty, both weighing on AUD this week. But talk of a CNY revaluation anytime soon will limit damage, he says, though ABN doesn't think CNY revaluation will come till 2H05.
Syd 22:08 GMT May 1, 2005
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Interest rate expectations have dwindled rapidly with 10% of economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicting May rate hike. Only two of 20 economists surveyed expect rate hike, both predicting 25 bps rise; previous survey, before April board meeting, found 57% expected 25 bps hike; since RBA held off rate move in April, 1Q consumer price index hinted inflationary pressure easing, prompting rethink of rate-hike expectations.
Toronto MRC 21:40 GMT May 1, 2005
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If all their long-range missiles splash after 65 miles I don't think to many people will break a sweat.
London. 21:36 GMT May 1, 2005
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North Korea 'tests new missile'
N Korea has not launched long-range missiles since 1998
The US and Japan say they are looking into reports that North Korea has test-fired a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4503531.stm
Toronto MRC 21:34 GMT May 1, 2005
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Looks like some of the yuan revaluation premium has to come out of the market for the yen.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:58 GMT May 1, 2005
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http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/maj.htm
charts
London Misha 20:50 GMT May 1, 2005
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103.25 - 103.60 (depending how thick your crayon is!).
wellington am 20:44 GMT May 1, 2005
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good morning.
AUD/NZD fails to breach 1.06.50 again. Any buying under 1.07 represents good value. Target 1.11+ by year's end on fundamental grounds.
london jc 20:40 GMT May 1, 2005
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London Misha 20:34 GMT May 1, 2005
whats your target misha?
london jc 20:35 GMT May 1, 2005
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looking to go long later on us crude from 49.5 target 51.2
London Misha 20:34 GMT May 1, 2005
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See a bear flag on the daily charts & all my MA's point downwards. Reckon their might be more on the downside.
london jc 20:34 GMT May 1, 2005
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or are we heading for jan 05 lows???? i just cant read this one..
london jc 20:31 GMT May 1, 2005
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long usd/yen after last fridays trade...any thoughts please?
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:08 GMT May 1, 2005
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Sun 5/1/05 4:00 PM 201.93 197.73
Sun 5/1/05 5:00 PM 201.38 197.25
Sun 5/1/05 6:00 PM 201.35 197.21
Sun 5/1/05 7:00 PM 201.31 197.18
Sun 5/1/05 8:00 PM 201.28 197.14
Sun 5/1/05 9:00 PM 201.24 197.11
Sun 5/1/05 10:00 PM 201.21 197.08
Sun 5/1/05 11:00 PM 201.17 197.04
Mon 5/2/05 12:00 AM 201.14 197.01
Mon 5/2/05 1:00 AM 201.11 196.97
Mon 5/2/05 2:00 AM 201.07 196.94
TO 19:59 GMT May 1, 2005
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thanks everybody
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:53 GMT May 1, 2005
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Sample of Ineraday of yen
Sun 5/1/05 5:00 PM 107.66 104.60
Sun 5/1/05 7:00 PM 107.65 104.59
Sun 5/1/05 10:00 PM 107.64 104.58
Mon 5/2/05 1:00 AM 107.63 104.57
Miami 19:47 GMT May 1, 2005
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EURJPY - in 135.20's and USDJPY in 105.10's, but it is still really early. "Blue Horseshoe loves revaluation"
Rockford BDR 19:38 GMT May 1, 2005
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TO
135.20
TO 19:31 GMT May 1, 2005
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URGENT...my platform won't connect...can someone tell me the sell price of eur/jpy?
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:29 GMT May 1, 2005
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Cable should pick up soon
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:21 GMT May 1, 2005
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TO:
VEry Dangeorus from daily
Sun 5/1/05 5:00 PM 142.1987 136.1863
Mon 5/2/05 5:00 PM 142.1918 136.1804
Tue 5/3/05 5:00 PM 142.1858 136.1752
Wed 5/4/05 5:00 PM 142.1848 136.1737
Thu 5/5/05 5:00 PM 142.1838 136.1722
Fri 5/6/05 5:00 PM 142.1790 136.1679
Sat 5/7/05 5:00 PM 142.1693 136.1597
Sun 5/8/05 5:00 PM 142.1617 136.1532
Mon 5/9/05 5:00 PM 142.1581 136.1496
Belfast Smiles 19:21 GMT May 1, 2005
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I'm a trader (engineer through Univ.)- it's all mechanics - perhaps we could all get together? Or at least talk.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:18 GMT May 1, 2005
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Rock/
I think GVI Annoces these weekly...
Rockford BDR 19:14 GMT May 1, 2005
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Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:04 GMT May 1, 2005
Amen Bahrain. Most analysts dont even trade. The only thing I want to know about news is what time the annoucements are so I can be flat and let the big boys play. "The market is always right!"
Belfast Smiles 19:07 GMT May 1, 2005
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Bahrain,
Aren't we all .... the less slowly the better .... one thought ... US int rates have only one risk .... I've got orders in to sell Chgo Fut's ... Ldn holiday but who in the US gives a xxxx
Smiles
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:04 GMT May 1, 2005
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News Dudes..are not analyst...they like to think they are.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:00 GMT May 1, 2005
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how do you shut yourself off from outside news/influences?
///
No Imperical Evidence...
Simply MKT does what it wants...the News Guys come in after to get credit for waht happened.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:58 GMT May 1, 2005
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Belfast...
That was For TO
I am anyways accumalting cable slowly
Belfast Smiles 18:57 GMT May 1, 2005
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OK - as I said, finding feet having been Mkt maker for big banks - need a few clues - how do you shut yourself off from outside news/influences?
Belfast Smiles 18:52 GMT May 1, 2005
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I don't know ....????
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:51 GMT May 1, 2005
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Belfast:
Yes I do..Only Tech...
I don't accept challenges in anything anyways.. :)
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:49 GMT May 1, 2005
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(Reply: TO...I Don't know!!)
NZD/USD Interday...
Sun 5/1/05 3:00 PM 0.7394 0.7300
Sun 5/1/05 4:00 PM 0.7396 0.7302
Sun 5/1/05 5:00 PM 0.7398 0.7304
Sun 5/1/05 6:00 PM 0.7400 0.7306
Sun 5/1/05 7:00 PM 0.7402 0.7308
Sun 5/1/05 8:00 PM 0.7404 0.7311
Sun 5/1/05 9:00 PM 0.7407 0.7313
Sun 5/1/05 10:00 PM 0.7409 0.7315
Sun 5/1/05 11:00 PM 0.7411 0.7317
Mon 5/2/05 12:00 AM 0.7413 0.7319
TO 18:45 GMT May 1, 2005
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134.45?! that low first?
Belfast Smiles 18:45 GMT May 1, 2005
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Bahrain,
Do you mainly trade on tech. analysis ? - out of interest, not a challenge - finding feet. Smiles.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:44 GMT May 1, 2005
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eur/JPY...Long 134.45
TO 18:43 GMT May 1, 2005
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Baharian...are u spekaing of eur/jpy in particular?
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:39 GMT May 1, 2005
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Yen...Very Carefull if shorting ...it will rally like woah!!!
hong kong nt 18:37 GMT May 1, 2005
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we may see USD index in 84.0-86.0 this week..
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:35 GMT May 1, 2005
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Cable Inter day...OK LOng
5/1/2005 14:00 1.9207 1.9076
5/1/2005 15:00 1.9209 1.9078
5/1/2005 16:00 1.9211 1.9080
5/1/2005 17:00 1.9213 1.9082
5/1/2005 18:00 1.9215 1.9084
5/1/2005 19:00 1.9218 1.9086
5/1/2005 20:00 1.9220 1.9088
5/1/2005 21:00 1.9222 1.9090
5/1/2005 22:00 1.9224 1.9092
5/1/2005 23:00 1.9226 1.9094
5/2/2005 0:00 1.9228 1.9096
5/2/2005 1:00 1.9230 1.9098
5/2/2005 2:00 1.9232 1.9100
Belfast Smiles 18:32 GMT May 1, 2005
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Any clues ? Or are we all fighting a losing battle? Think we need breakout - agaist my better judgement but I'm just about to look at charts for levels - if you have any then self efficating may work.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:31 GMT May 1, 2005
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I think USD/JPY is buy and Hold...(Long time)...Maybe 112
England Daniel 18:20 GMT May 1, 2005
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Buffet - plays a Tune
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050501/ap_on_bi_ge/buffett_shareholders;_ylt=Ar598ejb1lm54RXu0KBi5iKs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2amdibDI5BHNlYwNicw--
NS 18:18 GMT May 1, 2005
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no huge jumps at opening
any expectations for Eur/JPY recovery?
To 18:13 GMT May 1, 2005
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euro small?
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:06 GMT May 1, 2005
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Hi all...
Short euro small here.
Va Raven 17:37 GMT May 1, 2005
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Japanese news paper reported that this summer all Japanese government employees including PM are not going to dress to work in order to minimize or stop the usage of any air condition unit - to reduce the air pollution and save energy.
Marketwise impact;
1) Oil price down further.
2) underwears and T-shirts sales up.
hk ab 16:57 GMT May 1, 2005
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Maybe, Buffet has forgotten that now the short USD positions are NOT carry anymore.....
Melbourne Qindex 14:41 GMT May 1, 2005
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Copenhagen hefa 13:14 GMT - EUR/JPY : Anything below 134.20 is not good. We have to monitor the situation carefully this week.
Copenhagen hefa 13:14 GMT May 1, 2005
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Hey! What are the likely scenario for EUR/USD in the next session.
Melbourne Qindex 13:07 GMT May 1, 2005
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Makati obelix 12:08 GMT April 29, 2005
Melbourne Qindex 14:49 GMT April 25, 2005
Good night! I guess I am going to have the following dream :-
Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT April 25, 2005
GBP/JPY : I like the market to trade below 201.42 and head for 197.66 later this week.
Looking good, Dr Q.
===============================================
It is very promising so far!
Sydney ACC 10:35 GMT May 1, 2005
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Lets look at this in context Berkshire Hathaway's position equates to less than 5% of China's FX reserves. It is also equivalent to 10 days of the US current account deficit.
It is nothing compared to what US Inc. has probably stored in China pending a revaluation.
If you are the treasurer of a US company with Chinese manufacturing base, you would leave as much money in China pending the revaluation. For the last eighteen months the FX market has concentrated on a revaluation of teh reniminbi. It is a low risk strategy going long reniminbi short USD. But when the reval dows occur there will be a flood of money into the US locking in teh FX profit.
So what about other currencies. For most speculators Asian currencies have been the conduit to position ahead of the decision.
Reconsider what occurred after the Australian and NZ floats in the mid 80's.
The Aussie market anticipated a revaluation it got a float, the AUD then fell initially as the hot money was repatriated, the NZD was positioned differently, it rose initially after the float.
What I am saying is, if history is anything to go by, don't expect those currencies that have been used as a renminbi proxy to behave as expected after the float.
perrie como 07:52 GMT May 1, 2005
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Sydney ACC 22:49 GMT April 30, 2005
wd also add the missing part re Buffet
That bet backfired in the first quarter, and even now it costs about 5 percent fewer dollars to buy euros than on Dec. 31. Berkshire's currency bets had in the fourth quarter generated a $1.63 billion gain.
Haifa ac 06:32 GMT May 1, 2005
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Sydney ACC 22:49 GMT // LOL.
Do you really believe Buffett will tell the public his 21 billion position in the Dollar? I have a bridge for sale!
HK RF@ 06:16 GMT May 1, 2005
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Sydney ACC 22:49 GMT April 30, 2005
Almost sure the market will go after him now.
It is better Buffet will begin studies of wave count, as CBs may be after his stake and the others who followed him.
Looks like the break of the 1.2730 is now imminent.
HK RF@ 05:58 GMT May 1, 2005
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http://thebusinessonline.com/33642/German_bond_flop_heralds_Euro_crisis
German bond flop heralds Euro crisis
Allister Heath
May 1, 2005 12:00 AM (GMT)
SOMETHING significant happened to the euro zone economy last week.
In an ominous sign that the markets are cutting their growth forecasts for the region and perhaps even pricing in a greater risk of deflation, yields on 10-year German government bonds collapsed to an all-time low of 3.4%. The previous low was recorded in June 2003, at a time of immense gloom for the region.
Long-term nominal interest rates are usually thought to reflect a combination of real growth prospects, inflation expectations and a premium to compensate for default risk. It seems that last week's drop in yields was largely the result of investors finally understanding that Germany is in long-term economic decline.
There has been a little-noticed albeit highly significant change in sentiment about the euro zone. One prominent US economist who attended a conference in Frankfurt last week told The Business that the mood among German, French and other euro zone economists was the worst it has ever been. Even many of the traditional cheerleaders for the region - who talk up prospects to drum up business for their institutions or for patriotic or political reasons - are acknowledging that prospects are poor.
In France, Insee's business-confidence gauge collapsed in April to a reading of 97 from 101 the previous month, its lowest since October 2003. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence survey for May fell to 4.9 from 5.1; GfK itself has halved its German consumer spending growth forecast for 2005 to a mere 0.4%. German unemployment fell a little, but this was no more than a statistical blip.
If the euro zone is incapable of performing when the global economy is growing at a decent rate - as it is still doing today, despite the current slower patch - then the real question is: what will it do if the rest of the world suffers a bigger downturn or even a recession?
This ought to be of much greater concern to European politicians and the European Central Bank than appears to be the case today.
ALLISTER HEATH
Economics Editor
Syd 03:35 GMT May 1, 2005
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Australia's Costello Signals No Need For May Rate Hike
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