la oleg 21:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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van Gecko // hello! your views of loonie would be much appreciated. good trades to you.
uhm 21:13 GMT August 12, 2005
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Nice forum :|
Lahore FM 20:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn 20:39 GMT August 12, 2005
Lolzzzz.
Ldn 20:39 GMT August 12, 2005
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AUD/USD: Stuck Like A Deer In The Headlights
Ldn 20:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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van Gecko 20:15 GMT does that mean we have now seen the high for Dollar v Euro .. in that cross over
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 20:21 GMT August 12, 2005
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London. 20:17 GMT August 12, 2005
The CFTC data on currency futures shows that speculative investors have shifted to a long euro position vs USD for the first time in months
Market has a net long position in EUR/USD of 4,231 contracts, from net dollar long position of 191 contracts last week.
Thats usually a sign that the big firms are abt to have a change of consensus, because they are always on the other side of speculative investors!
London. 20:17 GMT August 12, 2005
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The CFTC data on currency futures shows that speculative investors have shifted to a long euro position vs USD for the first time in months
Market has a net long position in EUR/USD of 4,231 contracts, from net dollar long position of 191 contracts last week.
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 20:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 20:00 GMT August 12, 2005
Farnham SFH 18:42 GMT August 12, 2005
seems you asked me about the model there.was writing a reply when there was power outage and now it seems you have left.
Where is Lahore? You have power outages too? Thought that only happens in my beloved country. The other day the BOE decision was abt to come out when we had an outage here. Right in the middle of an open position. I have a 10000dollar investment on a generator just to ensure I dont get caught too often.
van Gecko 20:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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the euro/swissy twin doing a class dead cat act here.. nice multi-figure dead cat bounces to m/t ma's & trendlines seems to be getting bulls & bears excited after wasting some s/t transients by the fx wayside..
nip-picking semantic hindsight artists notwithstanding, euro & swissy parting or meeting at '1.25' and for how long should not be the issue for any experienced forward thinking traders.. the only issue should be the directional bias & the eventual p/l when someone posted their fwiw freebies at the time.. any forward trading m/t players who had profited from the euro's 1500 pip decline since January are certainly vely happy in hindsight..
Cheerios..
London. 20:13 GMT August 12, 2005
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Forex Wrap: The dollar was slightly higher versus the euro and lower versus the yen Friday. But its resilience earlier in the session in the face of a wider-than-expected $58.8 billion June trade deficit surprised some traders, causing them to question whether the dollar will continue to fall as it has in recent weeks.
Lahore FM 20:09 GMT August 12, 2005
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SFH, there has to be one way or the other,one can do it with the flip of a coin.i do it with a supportive technical picture and then i can sincerely hope for fundamentals to pop up to really give it the finishing touch.
Farnham SFH 20:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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no i am still here fm...i am not a tekkie..and maybe that is all going to help..but the tics is no reason to go long of dollars as we do not know the number and therefore a gamble on that is hardly a choice,,anyway good luck to you andf everyone else,,,next week will be fun.
Lahore FM 20:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 18:42 GMT August 12, 2005
seems you asked me about the model there.was writing a reply when there was power outage and now it seems you have left.
Anyways.the model is simple MAs a nice topping pattern on hourlies with yesterday's and today's check of fibonacci's and this pattern in on the hourlies and prices being where they are,seems like really nice objective entry.
Subjectively i would just rather have this happen sooner,profits for my dollar longs.Have a great relaxing weekend.Good weekend all.
Farnham SFH 19:41 GMT August 12, 2005
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ok thats it,,,good weekend all..
Farnham SFH 19:18 GMT August 12, 2005
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york 19:15 GMT
thats a tough one...if i were you i would try and sell at better levels than now and go short..recon that cud overshoot to 107.50 ish
york 19:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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any ideas on usd/jpy next week ? Currently holding a long......
The Netherlands Purk 18:47 GMT August 12, 2005
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SFH, As a matter of fact, I just came out of one, beer was dutch and bitter still....
Read you next week, keep cool.
Regards
Purk
Farnham SFH 18:45 GMT August 12, 2005
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The Netherlands Purk 18:43 GMT
lol..no idea..probably good vol in a thin market...have a good weekend purk..and stay away from those infamous cafes!
The Netherlands Purk 18:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham, I like that MAN.
How was your day today. I have left the idea behind that we are going to see some shorting, so let the shorting begin.
Do you know anything about the volume today?
Cheers
Purk
Farnham SFH 18:42 GMT August 12, 2005
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what are you using as a model to say that these prices are good to long the dollar apart from possibly your position ..the fact is that the dollar has fallen and continued to fall..is there something that stands out as an obvious correction?
Lahore FM 18:38 GMT August 12, 2005
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Best entries for dollar bulls for the upcoming week are the present market prices.The tic data can be the saving grace.Even if dollar did not long too much these prices are good for bullish dollar positions for at least two coming days if not all five trading days.
Farnham SFH 18:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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N Y 18:22 GMT August
What about future prices,,,forget the history..we know that!
Farnham SFH 18:07 GMT August 12, 2005
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yes first day they are normally taught the difference between a bid and an offer..some find that a hurdle...
Ldn Delboy 18:04 GMT August 12, 2005
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I wonder if there is any training for the dealers? How one can take a buy order and sell? Plonker! He cost me a lot tody.
Farnham SFH 17:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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GER ad 17:45 GMT
yes those levels are important..i just think its been a long week and more to go for next week...fresh approach..
Farnham SFH 17:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn Delboy 17:46
Not sure that stg is helped by oil anymore..stg does its own thing..always has...right now it is bullish...a month ago it was bearish...cycles with that one...hard to go against...
Ldn Delboy 17:46 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH
Oil seems to be helping GBP alright!
GER ad 17:45 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 17:29,
EUR/GBP will close today over 0.6850 IMHO. But I don't know where will be EUR/CHF, near 1.5490 or near 1.5530. So GBP/CHF sideline for the moment. I will sell only a spike over 2.27 today (and hold until next week if necessary).
Farnham SFH 17:44 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn Delboy 17:41
neither can I..just goes to show that when oil is used as an excuse for yen weakness or dow weakness it is usually an invalid excuse to explain a short term move...
Ldn Delboy 17:41 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH
With Oil at $67 I expected Usd/Jpy to be much much higher than this! Something is going on and I can't work out what it is.
Farnham SFH 17:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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GER ad 17:27
I think thats wise...more to go for next week....
GER ad 17:27 GMT August 12, 2005
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GBP/CHF,
Out at 2.2666
Sidelined
Farnham SFH 17:23 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn Delboy 17:18
interesting...but despite the option at 109...i think it will be taken out on monday...imo
Ldn Delboy 17:18 GMT August 12, 2005
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JPY: Despite the bullish bias for JPY that has dominated so
far this week, traders see a chance for a rebound in USD/JPY next week and are looking for a 110-111 trading range. One factor cited behind this view is the lack of Japanese data next week, which may trigger short-covering of USD/JPY
shorts. Traders see the need for new positive data to fuel JPY gains under 109 and the lack of data will means few catalysts for buying JPY. In addition, option protection ahead of a large 109.00 barrier is limiting JPY gains with Chinese names buying ahead of that level. Also, some of the expected repatriation of US bonds and coupon payments will settle on Monday removing a USD bearish factor for the week. Finally, a myriad of option strikes around 110-111 due throughout next week are expected to attract price action.
Lahore FM 17:17 GMT August 12, 2005
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Monday:TIC data for capital inflows 13:30 GMT.
Farnham SFH 16:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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Beijing Laowen 16:31 GMT
imagine what you would have made had you traded it long...
Beijing Laowen 16:31 GMT August 12, 2005
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I was lucky having traded Crude mostly on the short side for these days and won out every time. lol... I do not believe the real deman is so strong...Crude oil is extremely bullish but overdone. Leaving a sell order @67.80 and go to sleep. Have a nice weekend all!
Singapore Alimin 16:28 GMT August 12, 2005
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3 or so more dollars to 70 bucks crude oil, alas! more expensive to fill up the tank this weekend....time to get out those bicycles again LOL
have a nice weekend all...see you all next week
perrie como 16:12 GMT August 12, 2005
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We lean quietly on a pathetically low unrealistic GDP Deflator (off by 2% more), which has the net effect of not reducing much of any nominal price inflation.
Lahore FM 16:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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Adding cable short 1.8155.stop at 1.8210.
GER ad 16:06 GMT August 12, 2005
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Short GBP/CHF at 2.2672
50 pips S/L
Singapore Alimin 15:59 GMT August 12, 2005
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as long as oil keeps making new high every day, usdcad is going south
Lahore FM 15:55 GMT August 12, 2005
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Stopss can be moved to day's high over the weekend,for example in Aussie at 0.7753.still going to keep long dollar positions.
Lahore FM 15:53 GMT August 12, 2005
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A second test of day's low in euro is possible.still in with dollar longs.USD/CAD is the only loser.
Philadelphia Caba 15:52 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 15:49 GMT August 12, 2005
FM, will you keep any possie over the weekend? How far stops? GT!
sin water 15:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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Tks
Lahore FM 15:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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Good day forum members.
Ldn Delboy 15:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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We pay $1.7 / litter over here!
Ldn Delboy 15:44 GMT August 12, 2005
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Gasoline futures hit $2 a gallon - 2005-08-12 16:38:28
Philadelphia Caba 15:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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sin water 15:40 GMT August 12, 2005
You need subscription for GVI.
Farnham SFH 15:41 GMT August 12, 2005
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sin water 15:38 GMT
E-mail Jay
sin water 15:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 15:39 GMT August 12, 2005
Thanks, how do I got to this GV forum?
Farnham SFH 15:39 GMT August 12, 2005
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sin water 15:38 GMT
He was in the GVI forum earlier today...
sin water 15:38 GMT August 12, 2005
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Any one knows what happen to GC, Martin? Don't see his posting after his diving.
Ldn Delboy 15:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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Vienna GD 15:27 GMT August 12, 2005
I was asking BNE mecon 15:19 GMT, he mentioned that.
San Juan Lil 15:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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RE EURO
Dr.Q, yes indeed, your numbers are right on the money!
Vienna GD 15:27 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn Delboy 15:23 GMT August 12, 2005
usd pulls out from iraq!
Link?
Ldn Delboy 15:23 GMT August 12, 2005
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usd pulls out from iraq!
Farnham SFH 15:22 GMT August 12, 2005
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BNE mecon 15:19 GMT
Sorry I don't...I just get some bank stuff through but to be honest it is full of information that is already in the market..
BNE mecon 15:19 GMT August 12, 2005
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Fernham: do you have some useful websites; does anyone else have
i rely sometimes on www.fxtoday.co.uk for short term free recommendations
however they have been faulty of recently this week as the usd pulls out from iraq
Ldn Delboy 15:09 GMT August 12, 2005
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IFR: Apparent EBS difficulties along with talk of a huge trading error helped roil the market this morning. Some say a Macro account sold a chunky amount of EUR/USD in error after the trade data while at the same time system problems at
EBS crept up. Either way, heavy stop loss selling was the result and the top at 1.2485 has grown in technical significance.
Farnham SFH 15:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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Quiet in here this afternoon...anyone alive?
Bdg Bush 15:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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euroboyz.how do u do. where's euro to go the night?
Gen dk 15:03 GMT August 12, 2005
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
San Juan Lil 14:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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we shouldn't be surprised to see profit taking at today's high in the euro since it was widely known it would rise to 1.25 however in my view it is a buy where it is sitting right now. above 1.2420
imvvho
Bangkok bkk 14:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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It's not too late to LONG USD/CAD here @ 1.1940.......Now I am holding 1) Short EUR at 1.2405 and 1.2465, 2) Short GBP @ 1.8146 and 1.7940 , 3) Long USD/JPY @ 110.60 and 109.50 , and 4) LONG USD/CAD @ 1.1940
GL & GT everyone.
Hong Kong Qindex 14:17 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hong Kong Qindex 02:46 GMT August 12, 2005
EUR/JPY : The supporting strength of 136 will be challenged
The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 134.84 - 139.41 and the mid-point reference is 137.13. The market has hit the high around 138.84 and the odds are good that the market will test the supporting strength of 135.97 - 135.98.
... 134.84* ... 135.41* ... // 135.98* - 136.27 - 136.55* - 136.84 - [137.13]* - 137.41 - 137.70* - 137.98 - 138.27* // ... 138.84* ... 139.41* ...
Hong Kong Qindex 14:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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EUR/USD : It is interesting to watch the 5 minutes chart that the market movement matched pretty good with my projected series.
Hong Kong Qindex 14:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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EUR/USD : It is interesting to watch the 5 minutes chart that the market movement matched pretty good with from my projected series.
Farnham SFH 14:10 GMT August 12, 2005
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Fwiw....just gone small short of crude oil @ 66.20....hoping for a s bit of a relief for the weeks gain..
Hong Kong Qindex 14:03 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hong Kong Qindex 08:58 GMT August 12, 2005
EUR/USD : Current expected trading ranges :-
... 1.2308* ... 1.2347* ... // 1.2385* - 1.2405 - 1.2424* - 1.2443 - [1.2463]* - 1.2482 - 1.2501 - 1.2520 - 1.2540* // ... 1.2578* ... 1.2617* ...
Maribor 13:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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Singapore Alimin 13:45
Well, is is model based for monthly intervals, can be done also for weekly and daily intervals. No confidence that it will happen, but possible use is in placing stop loss levels and determining direction until point is crossed.
As it is very far away from current prices, it looks like nonsense, but without taking out 13050, monthly close should be at 139xx. IF it is something like big boyz use, it will happen.
Bangkok bkk 13:52 GMT August 12, 2005
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Malaysia Ice-Cold 13:16 GMT August 12, 2005
Perhaps, some people love the greenback and keep buying it......No matter what......IMHO.
Geneva FHR 13:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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UOM 92.7
Spb Igor 13:46 GMT August 12, 2005
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Singapore Alimin 13:43 GMT August 12, 2005
That can be a long one. I hope they're not gonna tired of each other lol
Singapore Alimin 13:45 GMT August 12, 2005
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Maribor 13:35 GMT August 12, 2005
one question mate, when you say 'should', how confident are you and what is it based on? thanks
Farnham SFH 13:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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Maribor 13:41 GMT
Thanks for that ...i just saw on my system that it looks bearish below 123.31..
slv sam 13:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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most probably we get weekly close at 1.2425/35 for euro!GT
Singapore Alimin 13:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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Spb Igor 13:17 GMT August 12, 2005
it is still enjoying the honeymoon with oil :)
Maribor 13:41 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 13:36
But you trade EURJPY? It should reach lower than 13050 for monthly close lower than month before.
Farnham SFH 13:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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MichiganSent Index and Ex index due in 3 mins
USA Biscuit Boy 13:39 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hi guys. OK so we have MT dollar bulls sitting ahead of 1.25 (that is if this is just more than profit taking in a thin market) and now we will discover where dollar bears are lined up below......cannot discount another test of 1.25 first to make sure. GL and GT.
slv sam 13:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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Spb Igor 13:24 GMT /
with sharp eyes on this pair you can not only read the fx market next action but also explains previous market actions! I always respected cad price action!GT
Farnham SFH 13:36 GMT August 12, 2005
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Maribor 13:35 GMT
I am glad not to be trading cad...
Maribor 13:35 GMT August 12, 2005
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USDCAD low on Monday should be lower than 11880, so I guess short positions are already taking place. My guess for today close is 12000.
Bangkok bkk 13:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 13:16 GMT August 12, 2005
This is manipulation in a thin holiday market, but as always the question is will it change market perception?
----------------------------------------------
I really don't know. But If you ask me where is the USD index heading to?(Short-Term) , I would say "Wide Range Trading", Medium-term (2 or 3 Months) --- Downward Bias,
Long-term --- UP(Maybe) .......IMHO
Bangkok bkk 13:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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Tampa MSF 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
MSF// Sorry that I can not say anything more than this.
Bangkok bkk 13:28 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
It could be both.......IMHO.
Spb Igor 13:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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slv sam 13:22 GMT August 12, 2005
Thanks Sam, it is the smartest pair after all.
slv sam 13:22 GMT August 12, 2005
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Spb Igor 13:17 GMT /
it did...always it does!GT
Bdg Bush 13:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore-FM. target 1.79 is coming soon? today?
Farnham SFH 13:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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fwiw bought back cable and gone small long@ 180.82...
chicago goofy 13:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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Eur/Yen sit above the daily uptrend line. FWIW.
It will break down. IMHO
Spb Igor 13:17 GMT August 12, 2005
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USD/CAD as always did not get the message, or maybe it did?
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 13:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Tampa MSF 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
Bangkok bkk 13:08 GMT August 12, 2005
fwiw........Billions of USD buying against EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD and NZD today until next week
Where do you get this information?
TIA
Farnham SFH 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
Bangkok bkk 13:12
profit taking do you think?
This is manipulation in a thin holiday market, but as always the question is will it change market perception?
Malaysia Ice-Cold 13:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hi i new to forex,
I have a question. I notice that the US international trade data is always in Negative figure. So why is that the US currency is stronger?
Ldn 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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The fact that the dollar has rallied on worse than expected data is potentially significant, reversing the trend of the last three weeks when strong U.S. data pushed the dollar lower. It could just be some random trading action in thin summer markets, but Charles Shioleno, forex analyst at Lehman Brothers, says that it signals recent USD weakness is merely investors cutting back long dollar positions and not a more fundamental swing away from the USD. That limits the scope of further USD losses
Tampa MSF 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bangkok bkk 13:08 GMT August 12, 2005
fwiw........Billions of USD buying against EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD and NZD today until next week
Where do you get this information?
TIA
Farnham SFH 13:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bangkok bkk 13:12
profit taking do you think?
Bangkok bkk 13:12 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bangkok bkk 13:08 GMT August 12, 2005
They 're from East + South East Asia......big names.
dc fxq 13:12 GMT August 12, 2005
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İstanbul Hazer-fun 13:06
neither is the EZ GDP growth rate at 3.4% if you wish to argue points. I am merely stating this weeek is an example of summer silliness rather than a reflection of market fundamentals.
Bangkok bkk 13:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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fwiw........Billions of USD buying against EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD and NZD today until next week.
ath 13:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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well,
its been a long year and may i say not my best but what the heck
off for the next two weeks sailing around the aegean much needed rest
c u all in September thanks for all the assistance from the colonies, (US australia SA ) and of course europe. u know who u are so i will enjoy an ouzo or three to your health
good luck and good trades ahead
İstanbul Hazer-fun 13:06 GMT August 12, 2005
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dc fx
There is no %5,5 deficit of GDP in UK or EU as far as I know.
And teher is also huge budget deficit in US too.
May be in FX market,such fundemantels coldnt affect the rates in short term but fundemenatals always dominate the market in long run.
thanks dc
Gen dk 13:06 GMT August 12, 2005
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
Farnham SFH 13:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bangkok bkk 12:50 GMT
Good call!!
Singapore Alimin 13:01 GMT August 12, 2005
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surprise must be with eur/gbp should it break lower into low 0.68
some must be betting that it was forming a nice symmetrical triangle on daily for continuation towards 0.7+++ but surprise, surprise it goes down instead
hk ab 13:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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And we should not forget high oil also hurts european circle as well. Let's see what impacts will that be.
hk ab 12:59 GMT August 12, 2005
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To conclude.....
oil rocket and stays above 50 has not bubble the deficit above 60B....
Ldn Delboy 12:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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Buy Eur dips @ 1.2
Farnham SFH 12:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:56 GM
How far do you see it going today?
London. 12:57 GMT August 12, 2005
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The Hospital That Makes You Sicker:
the International Monetary Fund (IMF)LINKWorld Bank was hijacked by market fundamentalists' in the Eighties
Bangkok bkk 12:57 GMT August 12, 2005
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fwiw.....Euro = New low's......(for the month of Aug, 2005)
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:56 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:48 GMT August 12, 2005
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:39
Truth is we were overdue for a correction anyways
Lets see how far it'll go
dc fxq 12:55 GMT August 12, 2005
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İstanbul Hazer-fun 12:44
the arguments you posit for USD could just as easily be made for GBP or EUR with minor adjustements to detail.
ath 12:54 GMT August 12, 2005
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seems profittaking has started early
glgt
London. 12:52 GMT August 12, 2005
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İstanbul Hazer-fun most of the time traders dont give two hoots what the IMF have to say as its always incorrect anyway. so why do they listen this time ( IMHO just a reason to sell the Dollar ) no more no less
Maribor 12:52 GMT August 12, 2005
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EURJPY reached under 13624, so close should be around 13680 today. USDJPY close expected around 10970, EURUSD around 12430.
chicago goofy 12:51 GMT August 12, 2005
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Martin should be back very soon. GLGT ALL!
I am dollar bull.
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:48 GMT August 12, 2005
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:39
I was saying u guessed right! Guessed man!
Bangkok bkk 12:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:34 GMT August 12, 2005
Perhaps the dollar will get a bit of a bid...think the selling has been done for the week..
--------------------
SFH// For what it worth..... it's not just a littile bit of a bid....I guess this should be a big surprise sooner than later.
slv sam 12:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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1.2380/90 should hold!GT
Farnham SFH 12:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:39
er...you were saying....
Ldn Delboy 12:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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Seems no more usd left to sell!
Osaka Hiroshi 12:45 GMT August 12, 2005
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GEP Dallas where is your stop loss in your dollar YEN long positions friend?
İstanbul Hazer-fun 12:44 GMT August 12, 2005
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İstanbul Sez 12:33 GMT July 08, 2005
****** (eur-usd 1,19)******
Hi friends,
I just wonder what was substantialy changed from the begining of 2005 when €-$ 1,35 everybody in FX world agreed that usd has been still overvalued and it must had to be at least 1,50 agst eur.İt was said by former IMF head economists and anyone who are regarded as guru in finance.
As far as I know, there is no improvement in US "TWİN DEFİCİT" problem in the recent months. I also say that US economy still growing mainly on consumption(import) and not so much producing (export). As for to FED, it is only performing its common role: Raise the rates when the inflation is high and no matter why inflation is high. Unemployment is still the problem in USA and everywhere in the world.may be even in China
İn addition , EU economy is also not perfect but they don’t much more consume than the amount they produce which is the way of US and it means that USA fools the rest of the world with greeny papers recently embellished by high rates.In short it is still valid that US people as the consumer and the others, mostly yellow skins, as the producer...
To be continued frds …
Minneapolis DRS2 12:41 GMT August 12, 2005
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Sydney gvm 12:37 GMT August 12, 2005
I'm net short EUR/USD...but I have large timeframes and large stops.
Farnham SFH 12:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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just gone short eur/yen @ 136.27 fwiw
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 12:39 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:34 GMT August 12, 2005
Perhaps the dollar will get a bit of a bid...think the selling has been done for the week..
Short cable at 1.8157
It aint done yet mate
Sydney gvm 12:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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hmmm so who's euro short and caught?
Farnham SFH 12:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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Perhaps the dollar will get a bit of a bid...think the selling has been done for the week..
Short cable at 1.8157
Philadelphia Caba 12:33 GMT August 12, 2005
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US ECON: Imp Prices Up 1.1%, Slightly Above Est; Ex-Fuel -0.1%
Philadelphia Caba 12:33 GMT August 12, 2005
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Sorry : US ECON: Trade Deficit Expands to $58.82 bln
Lahore FM 12:32 GMT August 12, 2005
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Correction**
Lahore FM 12:31 GMT August 12, 2005
Caba, 58.48** and not as i was touted.
Lahore FM 12:31 GMT August 12, 2005
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Caba, 58.8 and not as i was touted.
Bangkok bkk 12:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:26 GMT August 12, 2005
Be patient....let 's wait and see, big shark is coming.
GL & GT
Philadelphia Caba 12:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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58.48
Farnham SFH 12:26 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bangkok bkk 12:25
Someone leak you the figures?
Bangkok bkk 12:25 GMT August 12, 2005
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Add USD/JPY long @ 109.50
Bangkok bkk 12:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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Add GBP short @ 1.8146
Ldn 12:22 GMT August 12, 2005
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Aussie fall below 0.7719 may mean that today's rise could have been false and may bring confusion into the market.
GER ad 12:19 GMT August 12, 2005
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Farnham SFH 12:15,
USD/JPY,
Look like to find a bottom in EUR/JPY is more important for the moment than oil price.
san diego bobl 12:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Something has got to give...
Here's what I have come up with reviewing the charts prior to the big number today.
First, the US $ index has fallen 12 or the past 13 days. The weekly displays a consistant series of lower highs since the beginning of 2002. The spring/early summer rally now appears to be a simple retracement in a bear market. However, the daily momentum studies show a very oversold condition and therein lies the basis for the extreme conditions seen in the majors. Anything further downward for the dollar at the moment would have to be "blow-off".
The Euro/usd....13 consecutive up days with momentum pasted at 93.
Usd/Jpy...has given up 250 pips without a breather; this pair looks like it could have a little more in it without going extreme although a retracement would be healthy.
Usd/Chf...Again, 12 of 14 down days with momentum floored
Usd/Cad...this chart is just plain ugly and looks lower however it too has momentum close to grounded.
The above scenarios make this trade report a more difficult trade. If it's more of the same, then how much realistically is left before some sizeable programs come in pick up discount? If it's the other way, it's counter-trend and that's never real comfortable in my book. Bottom line, it's hard to sink your teeth into a objective plan imho. It'll be "play the tape and don't fight the tape" kind of trade after the numbers for me. I trade smaller size in these scenarios.
gl/gt
London. 12:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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FX Trading
A review of themes favoring the dollar over the intermediate-term vs. counter views suggesting the dollar rally from the beginning of the year is over:
Theme: Yield differential favoring the dollar will be a magnet for hot money over time.
Counter view: The market has fully discounted this reality.
Theme: Relatively strong US economic growth will attract longer term direct investment money to the US shores.
Counter view: European growth has bottomed and growth is poised to rebound, so money should be flowing to the euro zone.
Theme: A weaker dollar won?t solve the current account deficit problem anyway, it only makes it worse in the near?term.
Counter view: The structural problems?current account and budget deficits?will again be the major catalyst for a resumption of the long-term dollar decline.
Theme: China is heading for a harder landing than expected. As money flows out of Asia to the US, it should lead to another leg up in the dollar.
Counter view: China has engineered a soft landing and the revaluation of the yuan means Asian central banks will reallocate out of the dollar.
Theme: The euro could soon become the next carry-trade currency.
Counter view: The European Central Bank will not cut interest rates. Though the ECB could be on hold for a while, the next move will be up for European rates as the economy rebounds.
A bad week for the dollar it was. But for now, we stick with our script of another leg up in the dollar once the dust settles.
Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
Farnham SFH 12:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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hk ab 12:13 GMT
I too am surprised at the yens reaction in light of oil,,,the dow jones too...
hk ab 12:13 GMT August 12, 2005
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eur//double hour key reversal.
eur/gbp is going to tell us the truth soon?
BTW, please be reminded summer will soon be over. grab your chance.
IMVHO, eur/gbp breaks to the downside confirms eur sale after summer.
If oil plays rumours, why dlr/jpy not rocket? More stories are running behind...
GVI john 12:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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Treasury was vague. The point is that the data are not reliable and have been subject to recular huge revisions in the past. I am not aware of any bias (positive or negative) in the intially reported data. Most professional economists do not even try to forecast the figure.
Lahore FM 12:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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Offer stop on USD cad at 1.1968 still keeping me,escaped by the skin of my teeth.it is not looking good though.fingers crossed.
chicago goofy 11:56 GMT August 12, 2005
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will there be any surprise today?
Livingston nh 11:56 GMT August 12, 2005
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US trade deficit for June could be higher than the $57 bio because of a 1% hike in import price level and the recent inventory data - energy import prices in June were much higher while May had declined - the wild card is US exports which if flat would see neg $60 bio figure // the likely consequence of a higher figure is a spike down in USD and then a giveback of some of the recent moves (the trade deficit is still last year's news)
Vienna GD 11:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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GVI Research 11:29 ... flaky ... the calculations or the data ... or both? ggg
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 11:33 GMT August 12, 2005
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GVI why +60 against -57bln dollars. That not a large disparity...
GVI Research 11:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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U.S. trade today, Street expects -$57.2, vs. -$55.3bln.
Street TIC estimate +$60bln on Monday. We hear Treasury is working on improving TIC data calculations, which are said to be "flaky".
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:10 GMT August 12, 2005
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Long Euro at 60
Arctic Pete 11:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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USD on sale today, don´t think it will last into next week. Today being friday I think the specs will be taking profit. Buying USD against all the majors.
GER ad 11:07 GMT August 12, 2005
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EUR/GBP,
Out at 0.6871
Sidelined
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:04 GMT August 12, 2005
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Just seems Strange to get USDJPY as a buy and USD/CHF as a sell...Longer term ---> 30 days +
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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York/
Ur welocmed..
USD/CHF...seems on daily...doing a correction..towards 1.2630...
But general trend is south (Seems That way)
york 10:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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thank you for reply bahrain within 10 pips - I am in usd/jpy long at the moment & wondered where your short target may be...
HK RF@ 10:38 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 09:30 GMT August 12, 2005
Computers can't think and we can't compute well as computers and all is ok,
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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1.8240 is good level for cable
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:26 GMT August 12, 2005
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cable Longs at 1.8130
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:21 GMT August 12, 2005
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York..yes
109.70
york 10:19 GMT August 12, 2005
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bahrain within 10 pips - would that be 109.70 ?
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:17 GMT August 12, 2005
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shorting USD JPY around 70
Lahore FM 10:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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Some dollar buying setups in the making IMHO,especially in the Aussie,can be wrong but that is what the stops are for.
Singapore Alimin 10:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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eur/usd and gbp/usd might be heading to 1.8280/1.83 and 1.2530/40 because their respective 200 d.emas are located at such levels presently, under such condition + bullish tone of crude oil usd/cad might be heading to 1.18 handle before any bounce, could be wrong though
Helsinki iw 10:04 GMT August 12, 2005
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While there is no sign that the dollar's weakness is about to end, we are at or close to good dollar supports on many pairs:JPY 109.00/10, GBP 1,8165/75, CHF 1,2400/10 and CAD 1,1940/50. Worth keeping on eye on these going into the weekend, as all could potentially hold and force a turnaround. No real resistance on EUR until 1,2590/00 however. Personally reducing exposure. IMHO.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:02 GMT August 12, 2005
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eur/jpy..might be fake at 60
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT August 12, 2005
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euro..another 20 trade hours or so for the big fall
Lahore FM 09:47 GMT August 12, 2005
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Long Dollar/Swissy at 1,2451 stop 1.2400.
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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eur/jpy..I think long
Lahore FM 09:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 09:30 GMT August 12, 2005
profound thought!!!
Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT August 12, 2005
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Directional Indicator : The center of weekly cycle limits and 3-day cycle series limits are constant values within the week. However the center of the daily cycle limits is a variable.
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 09:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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I think the whole idea behind the computers is to reduce our adaptability as humans (emotions i think they call it)..
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:25 GMT August 12, 2005
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gpb/chf short
Lahore FM 09:18 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 09:11 GMT August 12, 2005
Thanx for noting the mistake it is 1.2460 not 1,2360.thanx again.
perrie como 09:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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in other words those neo markets requiring highly tained indivduals again It seems....
humans vs computers seems is now even as a game, but humans are more adaptable to new scenarios as computers needing too much time and investments again
perrie como 09:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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Personally do think even billions of investments in automated decisional and managment processes are worthy only for those started a decade ago or some...most of them are quitting and selling their shares
perrie como 09:12 GMT August 12, 2005
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maybe other mid hedge funds near to close as well.....heard in the industry there's a very bad mood now months....no incomes and high costs and investments are killing in such markets
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 09:11 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 09:06 GMT August 12, 2005
Lahore FM 08:14 GMT August 12, 2005
One litmus test for pre new york for a move higher is that Euro should not trade below 1.2360 till NY open,If it does then we are more likely getting 1.2230.
did u mean 2360, cause we are approaching 2460!, which by the way is supported by a 200ema on the 5 minute graph?
perrie como 09:10 GMT August 12, 2005
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think about trade details...maybe more imports from japan might make the jpy surge further
Lahore FM 09:06 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 08:14 GMT August 12, 2005
One litmus test for pre new york for a move higher is that Euro should not trade below 1.2360 till NY open,If it does then we are more likely getting 1.2230.
...... seems we are going to fall below this level shortly,if go below it is good for dolalr bulls.
Maribor 09:06 GMT August 12, 2005
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To keep EURJPY going lower on daily level, 13630 should print, followed by 13576 and 13570. Each of them bring close lower for 20 pips. For lower weekly close we need to see 13624.
Lahore FM 08:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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......is all in day's work kinda thing for Cable,either way that is
Singapore Alimin 08:55 GMT August 12, 2005
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eur/usd has been going up by itself recently leaving its two wingmen behind, eur/jpy and eur/gbp...will be interesting to see how this works out later which pulls which
Philadelphia Caba 08:54 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 08:49 GMT August 12, 2005
Thanks FM, taking some risk and will keep aussie and nzd shorts thru data also. GT!
Lahore FM 08:53 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bush we;ll see 1.79,200 to 300 points in all in days; work kinda thing for Cable,either way.
Bdg Bush 08:51 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM. I pro you, I think 1.8190 strong resistant,but the target is fantastic
perrie como 08:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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in any case we will go very close to 1.25 methinks
then the big now some years record highs guess ...trade deficits....
whatever is fine to me 1.24 or 1.26 does not rapresent a risk IMHO onto data later on
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 08:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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Anyone hazard a guess. Are we hitting 1.82 on the cable today?
Lahore FM 08:49 GMT August 12, 2005
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Caba,from a friend in Chicago i have fugure at 55 bln or lower,below general consensus.and this market needs some correction fast.I am holding my dollar longs till well after the data.
Hong Kong Qindex 08:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hong Kong Qindex 08:47 GMT August 12, 2005
Diectional Indicator : There is a cross over in AUD/USD
The market is neutral when it is trading between the daily, 3-day and weekly cycle's "super magnet" which is the center of my projected series. The 3-day cycle's "super magnet" is marked with the symbol * and the weekly cycle's super magnet is marked with parenthesis. It is negative when it is trading below and moving away from the neutral zone. It is positive if the market is trading above the neutral zone and moving away from it. In other words the market has a tendency pulling towards the neutral range if it is losing its market momentum. "Cross Over" is defined as a change in position between daily cycle super magnet and weekly cycle super magnet. In other words we will watch the market more carefully about the price action if there is a shift in position between the daily and weekly's super magnet from right to left or from left to right. We would assume a range market if the market is trading within the neutral zone.
EUR/USD : (1.2324) - 1.2398* - 1.2477
USD/CHF : 1.2432 - (1.2738) - 1.2896*
GBP/USD : (1.7795) - 1.7861* - 1.8149
USD/JPY : 110.04 - 111.50* - (112.51)
AUD/USD : (0.7610) - 0.7653* - 0.7791
USD/CAD : (1.1979) - 1.2037 - 1.2228*
Spot Gold : 433.1* - (437.0) - 442.1
Philadelphia Caba 08:47 GMT August 12, 2005
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gc martin, nice to see you back ==>
If you don't mind, may I ask you on your market view now? I'm not asking about exactly levels but for comments only, thanks and GT!!
Philadelphia Caba 08:42 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 08:14 GMT August 12, 2005
FM, what do you think about release us data later today, will you square up any possie before that?
perrie como 08:42 GMT August 12, 2005
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google lovers see financial forum pls
Ldn 08:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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As USD heads into US trade figures and reminder of structural problems, remember that it has already been sliding nearly all week. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi reckons there must be some temptation among market participants to take profits. But, as they haven't it may take a deficit reading of as much as $60B "to drive the USD notably lower again today." The consensus is for $57.5B, with data due at 1230 GMT..
Ldn Delboy 08:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 08:35 GMT
I think cable is heading for 1.83
Lahore FM 08:39 GMT August 12, 2005
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Adding one short Euro to my previous at 1.2457 stops for both 1.2521.
Lahore FM 08:35 GMT August 12, 2005
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Selling Two lots cable 1.8167 stop 1.8210. target 1.79
Gen dk 08:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
GER ad 08:28 GMT August 12, 2005
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Long EUR/GBP at 0.6869
30 pips S/L
London. 08:21 GMT August 12, 2005
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EMU: Smallest 'Yes' lead for 4 years (August 12)
Danes. support for the European Monetary Union (EMU) has fallen further. From April to July 2005, the Yes side.s lead shrank from 11.0 to 3.1 percentage points. In July, 45.3% of Danes responded that they would vote Yes to the euro, a fall of 1.3 percentage points since April. Meanwhile, as the No side advanced by a little over 6.6 percentage points, the Yes-side.s lead narrowed to 3.1 percentage points . the smallest Yes-camp lead since August 2001. The Yes side have seen their lead in the polls more or less evaporate since February . when they were ahead by 20 percentage points . meaning a Yes victory at any future referendum is far from certain.
The fall in support for EMU witnessed in the July numbers is not thought to be a purely coincidental swing, and is most likely due to several factors. First came the watering down of the .Stability and Growth. pact seen in March, and this may have diminished Danes. perception of the benefits of full participation in the single cur- rency. Confidence in the European project received another knock in June when negotiations on the new EU constitutional treaty collapsed in the wake of the No-votes in France and Holland. Moreover, speculations have even arisen that a country such as Italy might consider withdrawing from the euro.
Danske Bank
Lahore FM 08:14 GMT August 12, 2005
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One litmus test for pre new york for a move higher is that Euro should not trade below 1.2360 till NY open,If it does then we are more likely getting 1.2230.
Lahore FM 08:10 GMT August 12, 2005
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Seems like 200 single direction day either 1.2630 or 1.2230.
Lahore FM 08:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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Moving USD/CAD stop from 1.1980 to 1.1968.Aud/USD to 0.7765.Not because of indiscipline but for the reason i think they will be capped here and i would rather be in the trade than out.
Syd 08:04 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bert Ruerup, head of Germany's Council of Economic Advisers, said there won't be an upswing in German economic growth this year, in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper Friday.
Ruerup told the paper a modest recovery in growth was the more likely scenario.
He also indicated that private spending will only increase once the unemployment situation has improved, but this is unlikely to happen in 2005.
Germany's Council of Economic Advisers, also known as the "Group of Wise Men," is sticking to its 2005 economic growth forecast of 1%, Handelsblatt said.
"Wise Man" Sees No German Growth Upswing 05
Handelsblatt
Singapore Alimin 08:01 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn 07:57 GMT August 12, 2005
not 100% correct, rally from 1.1950 to 1.2470 in a month is not quite a momentum loss
Syd 07:59 GMT August 12, 2005
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Focus On EUR Speculative Flows -market watchers feeling the EUR/USD rise may not be justified by fundamentals, speculative positioning numbers from Chicago Mercantile Exchange will take on additional significance when they're issued later Friday. ING says that while net EUR/USD shorts have tumbled in recent weeks, this is due to sharp falls in EUR shorts rather than a rise in EUR longs. "This shakeout suggests that although the market perhaps felt that on a fundamental basis EUR/USD could move lower, many have now been forced to throw in the towel following the EUR's continued push higher," the bank says
Ldn 07:57 GMT August 12, 2005
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EUR/USD TECHS: Long Play Frustrated By Momentum Loss
IFR newswire
Syd 07:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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China runs copper surplus
Reuters
HONG KONG – China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is facing a surplus triggered by seasonal demand falls and is reselling some contracted foreign copper elsewhere in Asia, traders said yesterday. Chinese merchants were also delaying or cancelling part of their contracted copper imports, they...
nj jf 07:46 GMT August 12, 2005
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the phantom fill- thats 1,000 this week and counting for the ff
Geneva FHR 07:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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High clu5 66.11
Kaunas 07:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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I think most traders will try to square their positions before 12:30 trade numbers and book some profits from this week's smooth trend. This could stall (or even reverse) the recent USD decline.
Farnham SFH 07:40 GMT August 12, 2005
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Beijing Laowen 07:36
when did you get a fill at 66.15? I had a limit sell at 66.12 no fill...
york 07:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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can anybody give their take on usd/jpy ? Further decline or a bounce up ?......tia
Beijing Laowen 07:36 GMT August 12, 2005
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Being not very comfortable, I closed my short of Crude from 66.15 @65.90. Stay sidelined a while.
Farnham SFH 07:35 GMT August 12, 2005
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ill be square before the trade balance release...
LA fxnew 07:31 GMT August 12, 2005
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whats your stop ??
Montréal Taro 07:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hong Kong Qindex
Is the directionnal indicator from yesterday still apply ?
Farnham SFH 07:26 GMT August 12, 2005
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LA fxnew 07:24 GMT
yes...at 1.81.10....
LA fxnew 07:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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anyone short cable from here???
Syd 06:43 GMT August 12, 2005
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French 2Q GDP Flash Estimate +0.1% QQ, +1.2% On Year
Below +0.3% On Quarter Seen
Syd 06:25 GMT August 12, 2005
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Live CNBC Europe Bob Parker Credit Suisse Asset Management see this a buying opportunity for the $USD - sees EUR0 heading down to 115. by December.
Farnham SFH 06:23 GMT August 12, 2005
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good morning...trading cable from a short perspective this morning....then lets see what the trade figures are...expecting a bad number..
gl at
Haifa ac 06:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:38 GMT August 11, 2005
google
wonder where this stock will stop...
next Long term 400 +
Should be around these days//
Google is a Bubble. Not a Bubbele. I say 175 before 400!
Syd 06:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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ECB WATCH: Revised Pact Could Undermine Fiscal Goals
As euro-zone governments sit down to draft budgets for next year, the European Central Bank Thursday issued its most detailed objections to the revised Stability and Growth Pact to date. The August monthly report not only included the ECB's routine warning to erring member states on fiscal consolidation, but devoted a chapter detailing its worries about the revised euro zone's Stability and Growth Pact. The revisions increase the risk of excessive budget deficits, and that these will be tolerated, the ECB said.
Ltn th 05:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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I read that Rupert censored and News Corp has declared his intent to acquire the internet.
I wonder if Jay and GV has been acquired as yet? I guess we will know when the nanny programme starts to protect Rupert censored or News Corp.
Ldn 05:37 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader If the information is correct Dlr/Yen should pull towards that figure rather than away prior to the expiry.
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 05:27 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn 05:20 GMT August 12, 2005
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader they are normally around 14.00gmt NY
Sorry to bother you. We are saying spot will be 110 at abt 1400gmt then arent we?
Ldn 05:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader they are normally around 14.00gmt NY
Lagos, Nigeria Wisdomtrader 04:54 GMT August 12, 2005
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Ldn 03:34 GMT August 12, 2005
FX OPTIONS: More Large USD/JPY 110.00 Expirations Today
When are these expirations timed for, do you know please?
la oleg 04:28 GMT August 12, 2005
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re crude: no doubt the market is giddy, but there is no sense standing in front of a speeding locomotive unless you are climbing on board... best to wait for a clear sign of reversal before going short if that is your inclination, there will be plenty of room to the downside.
RSA Abe 04:07 GMT August 12, 2005
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Goodmorning/evening guys.
Global-View 01:02
....Most experienced traders have thick skins, that is why they last in this business......
Sheeeit..did not know that!! So if I dont have a thick skin, u mean I`m either not experienced or I wont last in this business?? censored!
LOL...just kidding GVI, keep up the good work!
Beijing Laowen 04:07 GMT August 12, 2005
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nt,personally I feel Crude oil is topping. Days in a row without correction is just like anything about to U-turn. IMHO.
hong kong nt 03:54 GMT August 12, 2005
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LAOWEN -- sell spot 66-67 with 1 month call protection at 68 may work...
Ldn 03:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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FX OPTIONS: More Large USD/JPY 110.00 Expirations Today
AUD/USD: Eases Back On Profit Taking Ahead Of Macfarlane
IFR newswire headers
Beijing Laowen 03:31 GMT August 12, 2005
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hong kong nt 03:07 GMT August 12, 2005 //
Thanks my friend. I closed my shorts @0.6881 this early morning and now am sidelined. What about your criude? Sold this morning? Crude looks extremely bullish. Good Trade to you!
Syd 03:30 GMT August 12, 2005
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China To Face Deflation Soon - Academics---Falling prices of food, property signal China deflation near, says Yuan Gangming, director of macroeconomic research center at local think tank CASS, in Economic Information Daily. Wang Jian, vice secretary-general of macroeconomic institute under China's economic planning agency NDRC, forecasts deflation in 4Q and industrial overcapacity by 2007 in same article. Views contrast with many analysts' inflation concerns as oil prices hit record high.
nyc joel 03:22 GMT August 12, 2005
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dh are you Dan Holland?
Miami OMIL (/:-> 03:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Global-View 01:50 GMT August 12, 2005
Thank you and I appreciate the people that participate sharing their ideas about the market in the forum very much. That is why I keep sharing my ideas here for many years now. I am sorry if misunderstood about my comments which were mostly defending the absence of Martin but that was all I meant. I know you do a great job on this forum with what is presented to you and I appreciate that very much. I believe this topic should be water under the bridge and moving on with the forex market discussions. I hope you are well Martin and have a great weekend. Peace and GT
nyc dh 03:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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woops..almost spilled my ale
g'tradin g'night
1.25's when I wake will be superb.
hong kong nt 03:07 GMT August 12, 2005
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LAOWEN -- EUR/GBP .6875 looks a buy for .6975 next week..
nyc dh 02:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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I'm gonna start buying 1/2mil clips
nyc dh 02:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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I'm gonna start buying 1/2mil clips
Hong Kong Qindex 02:52 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lower and Upper Barriers :
In my projected series the upper and lower barriers are marked with the symbol “ // “. The center of the projected series is marked with parenthesis “ (x.xxxx). The odds are in favour of taking these positions for entry or exit area.
Hong Kong Qindex 02:46 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hong Kong Qindex 02:46 GMT August 12, 2005
EUR/JPY : The supporting strength of 136 will be challenged
The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 134.84 - 139.41 and the mid-point reference is 137.13. The market has hit the high around 138.84 and the odds are good that the market will test the supporting strength of 135.97 - 135.98.
... 134.84* ... 135.41* ... // 135.98* - 136.27 - 136.55* - 136.84 - [137.13]* - 137.41 - 137.70* - 137.98 - 138.27* // ... 138.84* ... 139.41* ...
Beijing Laowen 02:38 GMT August 12, 2005
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London ab 23:09 GMT August 11, 2005 //
Thanks for your advice my friend. Are you HK ab on London? I am also very cautious about my short position on Crude.However at such a level I have no appetite to buy it so only sold it at some intraday o/b levels. See the archive for my trades on it for these few days and your comments are appreciated. GT and GL!
Va Raven 02:27 GMT August 12, 2005
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Thanks Qindex, also, if possible, make some comments on what your system might have to say, sometimes, I like that part more.
Singapore Alimin 02:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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just logged in, finally the crossover made it....history shows that whenever this happened a few hundred pips following the prevailing direction would occur, but one must remember also that we are in summer trading, so if both eur/usd and usd/chf make u-turns from here and crossover again then perhaps a few hundred pips in the opposite direction cannot be ruled out...possible
Philadelphia Caba 02:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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LA fxnew 02:13 GMT August 12, 2005
I guess that it will drop but not sure about anything. Trading cable very seldom, no open position now. GT!
Syd 02:20 GMT August 12, 2005
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4CAST -FX
Market depth may plague speculators trying to square up
Australian and New Zealand Fx trading will probably give a passing look at retail trade and RBA testimony to law makers, but there is a little likelihood that much trading will take place until the US trade data is released.
Real money has still not participated in the rally that has taken.
Antipodean currencies higher. Model funds have been stopped in by technical signals as the market climbs and speculators have been scurrying to cover shorts thathave not been profitable. If trading is as light as it has been for the week so far, speculators wishing to take profits and square up positions for the weekend may find it difficult to get good execution.
Melbourne OSK 02:19 GMT August 12, 2005
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Hello guys! good afternoon. Does anybody have good link about the yuan reevaluation 'cause I lost mine. Tia
Hong Kong Qindex 02:18 GMT August 12, 2005
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Va Raven 02:15 GMT - I will post EUR/JPY here after I update AUD/USD in my page.
Va Raven 02:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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Qindex, how does the eur/jpy look like in your system?
LA fxnew 02:13 GMT August 12, 2005
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caba :
you are sure kiwi will drop .... do you see it on cable too???
Thanks
nyc dh 02:04 GMT August 12, 2005
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After many years...this forum has surely served. It has been effective.. and from time to time persuasive. Good work GV
...now lets make $$$$
Syd 01:59 GMT August 12, 2005
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Analysts blamed the sharp run-up in gold on hedge fund demand
Philadelphia Caba 01:58 GMT August 12, 2005
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kiwi: .7070 is 50% .7460/.6685 fall
Syd 01:56 GMT August 12, 2005
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MARKET TALK: RBA Testimony Confirms Neutral Stance - censored
Global-View 01:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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Miami OMIL (/:-> 01:27 GMT August 12, 2005 - it depends on how you look at your glass, half empty or half full? Considering this is a public forum with many thousands of members from over 100 countries, it works remarkably well. As for the few "bad apples," as you know, we are very vigilant and do our work out of sight to maintain the high standards on our forums. We also appreciate the self-policing by our members so please keep it up and continue to come to us if you see anything that requires our attention.
Miami OMIL (/:-> 01:27 GMT August 12, 2005
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Sydney gvm 01:16 GMT August 12, 2005
Well at least he is alive and well but on GVI LOL. Have a good weekend gym. GT
Global-View
I hope I did not offend FF there are very good people on this side of the pond just stating the fact that there are a few bad apples on this side as well (the truth will set you free sometimes).
Sydney gvm 01:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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Miami OMIL (/:-> - yep agree with all you say - cheers
GVI - nothing conspiratilist meant in my inquiry...
Syd 01:09 GMT August 12, 2005
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RBA: March Rate Hike Was A Close Decision
Global-View 01:02 GMT August 12, 2005
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When someone does not show up for a day it seems the conspiracy theorists come out of the woodwork blaming the FF as the culprit. For your info, people leave for various reasons, more often than not professional or personal and not anything to do with what goes on here. Most experienced traders have thick skins, that is why they last in this business. As for GC Martin, he is alive and well and has been seen on GVI.
Philadelphia Caba 01:01 GMT August 12, 2005
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AUD/USD: Steady After Macfarlane"s "Steady" Testimony
Philadelphia Caba 01:00 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 00:54 GMT August 12, 2005
Hope, we are both right at this time, GT!
Lahore FM 00:54 GMT August 12, 2005
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Philadelphia Caba 00:50 GMT August 12, 2005
Caba, gold or no gold;oil or no oil.i see a marked weakness setting in till 0.7600 is successfully tested,even once there it is more likel to fail and drop below 0.7600
Miami OMIL (/:-> 00:53 GMT August 12, 2005
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Sydney gvm 00:46 GMT August 12, 2005
It is not easy to comment on your strategies for the market and then later get shot down by others in this forum. I can only imagine he is taking a leave of absence from all these madness until who knows when. His longer-term views are still active until 2825-35 is taken out IMHO. GL GT
Lahore FM 00:51 GMT August 12, 2005
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Sydney ACC 00:44 GMT August 12, 2005
Syd and ACC, I am grateful.gtgl.
Philadelphia Caba 00:50 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 00:24 GMT August 12, 2005
Aussie today? Depends on euro, oil. Further, still feel comfortable keeping medium term bearish bias. Macfarlane backed monday statement despite yesterday's data.
Miami OMIL (/:-> 00:48 GMT August 12, 2005
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Mid term to short term indicators are on the O/B area for eur/usd pair. With the resistance 2450-60 taken out and the retracement level tested I believe we are in an important pivot point for now for this pair caution is taken on short term longs and still buying on dips is the name of the game until 2100-20 is taken out with key support at 2320-30 for now. There is no signal of the bears intension of stepping in to correct this move yet. I have an estimated retracement level for the next few weeks if retracement level 2490-2500 is not taken out ( 2370-80, 2280-90, 2220-30, 2160-70 and 2080-90) IMHO. Peace and GT
Sydney gvm 00:46 GMT August 12, 2005
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have this forum seen the last of Martin or is he on holiday? Not being critical of his absence - just curious
Sydney ACC 00:44 GMT August 12, 2005
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Syd 00:34 GMT August 12, 2005
Lahore FM 00:32 GMT BTW good calls just lately.
I'll second that!
Syd 00:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 00:32 GMT BTW good calls just lately.
Syd 00:34 GMT August 12, 2005
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Wages Growth Is Remarkably Stable
Still Sees Risks From Capacity Constraints
Don't Need Hike Threat To Keep Housing In Check
Doesn't Expect House Prices To Rise
Lahore FM 00:32 GMT August 12, 2005
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Syd 00:29 GMT August 12, 2005
many thanx.
Syd 00:29 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 00:24 GMT RBA treading a fine line , expect he doesnt want the Dollar to strengthen much further hurting the Manufacturing and export sectors feel it will follow the Euro , unless we see a pull back in Gold and Oil then will test much lower 75 area would say.
Lahore FM 00:24 GMT August 12, 2005
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Syd and Caba, what do u think of RBA statements?Won't it set tone for the day for not only the Aussie but other rather flamboyant European currencies.Japs too with the dragging economy which is always at the point of derailing.
Syd 00:16 GMT August 12, 2005
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RBA: Potential For Rate Hike Less Than 50%
RBA: No Expecting To Change Rates In Near Term
Syd 00:15 GMT August 12, 2005
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RBA: March Hike Had Faster Than Expected Effect
Philadelphia Caba 00:11 GMT August 12, 2005
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Macfarlane - Stable Period For Economy
Syd 00:10 GMT August 12, 2005
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RBA's Macfarlane: Is Stable Period For Economy
RBA's Macfarlane: Optimistic On World Econ Outlook
RBA: Oil Prices Not Adding To Inflation Expectations
RBA: Yuan Revaluation To Improve China's Prospects
RBA: Household Consumption Has Slowed Noticeably
HK RF@ 00:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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Rivonia PipPirate 21:23 GMT August 11, 2005
I think that is not the guy. Anyway your fella is also commited to 100 push-ups as well as it will not be long time since his post.
OLD Conclusion: NEVER SAY NEVER
Lahore FM 00:08 GMT August 12, 2005
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Yo Caba, of course i would not mind at these levels and yes i do see a slide.been some days seeing dollar rally more than 100 points in span of a few minutes.
Lahore FM 00:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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Long USD/CAD at 1.2033 stop 1.1990 for 1.2170 minimum.
Philadelphia Caba 00:05 GMT August 12, 2005
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Lahore FM 23:59 GMT August 11, 2005
It's very tight stop I guess, but you are finally on my side! GT!!
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