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Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2006

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Philadelphia Caba 23:58 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
FM, yes Tankan results mixed, got stopped at b/e on usd/jpy short.

Lahore FM 23:56 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
24 isn't bad at all Caba but the response somewhat muted on usdjpy.

austin mw 23:55 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
large manufacture 24
cap x 16.9

Philadelphia Caba 23:54 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Manu index Q3 24 vs 21
All industry Capex 11.5% vs 11.8

melbourne saint 23:53 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
can anyone post Tankan #'s please

Syd 23:19 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
EUR/JPY likely to break above 150 if BOJ tankan weaker than expected, says Tokyo Forex and Ueda Harlow trader Masanobu Ishikawa; but may head for 149 if result strong. Last at 149.65 on EBS. EUR/USD tipped in narrow 1.2650-1.2700 range as Europe, U.S. data including U.S. payrolls Friday awaited for pointers on rate outlook; last at 1.2678
USD/JPY on standby as players await BOJ tankan for clues on chance of further rate hike in Japan this year Says pair may hit 5-month high of 118.50 if data weak, but may be hard to break as likely "considerable" selling interest from Japan exporters, funds near there; if data strong, USD/JPY may test 117.50 with next support 116.90. Last at 118.05 on EBS

NY Hendro 23:16 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Ascending traiangle on the daily USD/JPY from June chart setting up nicely for a possible long when it closes above 118.30 area. slightly diverging RSI makes me think it will make another run at support around 116.90 prior to this.

austin mw 23:02 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
CT Cris 17:01 GMT October 1, 2006
GBP/USD sell at 18750 tp 18700

nice call..

Philadelphia Caba 21:48 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Short usd/jpy at 118.10, s/l 118.50

Cannes Oil man 21:46 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Poland Piotr 21:38 GMT October 1, 2006

Everything points to the short side right now, however we need to close under 1.8700 (1.8691) for more short side ..
Longing needs to be over 1.8829 to start being bid again..So right where it is right now, it's in a no man's land for me...No longing/shorting till it moves up or down from here.
Watch 1.8829 to long and 1.8691 (daily close) or 1.8660 break to swing short.
I am offcourse bearish on it, but not shorting right here either..not looking to waste pips at the start of the month.
gl gt

Poland Piotr 21:38 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man,

What is your view for GBP/USD today please? Tia

Cannes Oil man 21:24 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Not placing stops helps.
In anycase back to work , good week everyone, new month.

Only stuff i have is :

117.97 Short S/L 118.28
1.1092 Long $/CAD entry.

Let's see what happens from here.

gl gt.

Alaska Moon 21:24 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Actually...the "trend" word is useless unless some timeframe is used and mentioned...
The short time trend might be opposite of the mediam term...

USA Zeus 21:14 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
CT Cris 20:31 GMT October 1, 2006

Actually you said it was in a downtrend and to sell again. You then said it was still in a downtrend as it rose. Next you said to buy if at 18630-40 if it dipped to 1.8620 or below- which it did not. So as the records read you are still short and shorted as it began to increase-

CT Cris 12:51 GMT September 29, 2006
gbp.usd if decline till 18620 or below.
Buy at 18630-40 tp 18660-70.

CT Cris 12:44 GMT September 29, 2006
CT Cris 09:06 GMT September 29, 2006
gbp.usd still in downtrend..we can sell now
========= is still in downtrend.

CT Cris 09:06 GMT September 29, 2006
gbp.usd still in downtrend..we can sell now

Lahore FM 21:00 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
data -forecast-previous.

Lahore FM 20:59 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
10/1/2006 23:50 JPN Tankan Lge Manufacturing Index 21 21
10/1/2006 23:50 JPN Tankan Non-Manufacturing 20 20
10/1/2006 23:50 JPN Tankan All Industries Capex 11.8% 11.6%

houston st 20:33 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Updated crude, nat gas, eur/$ and eur/jpy charts...also on the new GVI Blog...good week to all.

CT Cris 20:31 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Bangkok 19:36 GMT October 1, 2006
Ct Cris,

The trend for gbp/usd will uptrend then downtrend and uptrend again???. tia

as I predict in friday the market will rise.
it is already rose now till 18765 ,so we can short at the opening of asia

The Netherlands Purk 20:15 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Right, where are we? Ah here. Last Friday i closed one position in e/j and before i left for the weekend i closed my last one, because i THOUGHT it was going to do the 50+ bounce. Now back from the Purk weekend, and saw that Friday it made a new top as well my platform. This pair has given me the opp again and again to short, but i have to say, where to short is still a gamble, but i dont mind because i have the patience to sit every short. So when i dont fall asleep iwill follow Asia a bit and short a first position.
Cheers all, and may the delta force be with you all....

High Wycombe 19:46 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
eurjpy is stalling below 150. sell with tight stops above 150 and targets at 149.20 and below.

Bangkok 19:36 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Ct Cris,

The trend for gbp/usd will uptrend then downtrend and uptrend again???. tia

CT Cris 17:01 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
GBP/USD sell at 18750 tp 18700

Philadelphia Caba 16:34 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
simply sell 222.20 (+ -) failure, buy break (1,2,4hr charts),imho...but all jpy pairs - Tankan later today - wild & intersting session ??

nzd dollar is most overvalued major currency and with Current acct deficit of now 9.7% of GDP on top of numerous Uridashi redemptions through Q4 can send NZDUSD significantly lower..(sexy b.)

Lahore FM 16:12 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland peat 23:42 GMT September 30, 2006
buy 220.60/70 and looking for rise above 221.30/40 to start fresh run for 123 and still higher.

Lahore FM 16:07 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Athens 13:29 GMT October 1, 2006
Athens,quite agree with you and am keeping with minority view.Infact i see a possible break of upper trendline of the triangle with present run.even half a push from tankan can make things for jpy a lot simpler,heralding a push for 145/46,a total reversal, over next 12 months.

hong kong nt 15:37 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
AB -- judging from aud/nzd, you should have your focus on aud instead of nzd..usd/jpy bulls may overshoot 1-2 yen to trigger stop before going south..tight stop does not work very well for gold unless you daytrade, suggest you go long 600C and short 630/635C or long spot with option protection..

hong kong nt 15:28 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Implication from Amaranth -- natural gas enters into value buy zone..

hong kong nt 15:25 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Athens 13:29 GMT October 1, 2006

prefer to take a simpler view. see very yummy (very huge size) stop above Jan high 119.3 and psychological resistance 120. Expect a test of 119-120 before materialisation of current widely expected direction...

Livingston nh 14:40 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
madrid mm- yen and yang LINK

Halifax CB 14:10 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Interesting article on China's banking:
Globe and Mail article" Caveat emptor, and all that....

london 13:59 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
German minister bullish on growth

Michael Glos said he expected to see economic growth of between 2.0% and 2.5% this year

Athens 13:29 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
An excerpt from Trendways weekly analysis ths weekend:

" usually begin the technical section on this page with the Euro but this time I will do so looking at the Yen which, I suspect, still holds the key to future market action. The Japanese fiscal half year end left $/JPY at is highest monthly closing this year, highest since November 2005 when it had finished at 119.80 and second highest since July 2003 which was the last time we saw a monthly close above 120. Although the model still keeps the negative direction, on the big picture I am really surprised that so many traders remain $/JPY bearish when the Japanese currency has been so soft over the medium term, of course less so against the USD and much more on the crosses and let me explain what I mean. If we consider $/JPY staying within a very large long term triangle with the origins going back to 146.70 and 135.15 on the upside and to 101.65 and 108.95 on the downside, there is no doubt whatsoever that for many months prices have spent much more time trading near (an occasionally testing) the declining upper (resistance line) of this triangle than the rising lower (support) line. I can understand that as long as the resistance line holds, there is always a technical probability that prices could again fall towards the support line to keep the triangle pattern in place. However, apart from this consideration, there is nothing else to suggest that the next major move (whenever it comes) should be towards a soft $/JPY (remember that the model is not long term oriented). Another indicator which tells the real story is the MTI as the last time we had a negative reading (below zero) was on June 15 i.e. the MTI has stayed positive for 3 1/2 months which technically means a very long period of $/JPY strength and for the time being it is not indicating an imminent sharp decline as it is nowhere near excessive levels. Let me make these thoughts straight and clear. By no means am I saying "go bet your house on long $/JPY", even less so as long as we don't yet have a model and/or linear break. All I am saying is that I don't share the majority's view that $/JPY will finally and definitely collapse. For reference, the triangle lines this week are coming in at 118.45-65 and 111.05-10 respectively."

madrid mm 13:02 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Currency markets-Yen and yang
Sep 28th 2006

China-bashers may soon take aim at the yen, the world's most mispriced currency.

WHICH country has the world's most undervalued currency? Most people would answer China. Yet by many measures the Japanese yen is now cheaper than the Chinese yuan. It cannot be long before America and Europe put Japan in the dock, alongside China, and accuse it of keeping its currency unfairly low.

The Economist

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:41 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
HK [email protected] 06:37 GMT October 1, 2006 // I suppose you heard about Fannie May...losing half it's cap?

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:24 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
Global-View Research 21:28 GMT September 29, 2006 //Thanks GV, this is an article everyone should read. AGAIN I'm saying the USD is way over bought...if it's not at least 1.35 vs Euro by year end I'd say the market is nuts.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:21 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
unfortunately HK, they're not alone. I just read this an hour ago too on my news service. Add this to the Refco's group scam.

HK [email protected] 06:37 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
How many more Amaranth are out there in the galaxies of hedge funds by this time hmmm... beware too of funds victimized by the gold decline.
Maybe these kind of events will give a sudden shock to the currency market too.

Faced with billions lost, Amaranth Advisors will shut down
Posted 9/30/2006 10:28 AM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Subscribe to stories like this

NEW YORK (AP) — The founder of a hedge fund that lost about $6 billion because of bad energy trades said in a letter to investors this week that the fund is preparing to shut down, according to a published report.
Nicholas Maounis of Amaranth Advisors wrote that the fund is suspending all redemptions for Sept. 30 and Oct. 31 so it could "generate liquidity for investors in an orderly fashion, with the goal of maximizing the proceeds of asset dispositions," The New York Times reported.

Messages left with Amaranth Friday were not returned. The fund is headquartered in Greenwich, Conn.

As recently as Sept. 22, Maounis said in a conference call that he hoped to stay in business.

"We have every intention of continuing in business and generating for our investors the same consistently high risk-adjusted returns which have been our hallmark, and we are fully committed to doing so," Maounis said.

But in the letter, he acknowledged that investors have asked for their money back in recent days. Redemption fees and charges will be waived once investors are allowed to take their money out, and cash will be distributed proportionately, the letter said.

Amaranth's implosion is one of the biggest hedge fund losses to date and comes as fund investment has poured into energy markets. The fund's energy desk had made significant bets on natural gas, but found itself in positions too large to liquidate this month after prices fell.

Amaranth's energy and commodities portfolio was responsible for a big chunk of the fund's previous success, booking a $1.26 billion profit in 2005 and $2.17 billion this year to the end of August.

It began incurring large losses in natural gas the week starting Sept. 11, and on Sept. 14, Amaranth lost roughly $560 million on its natural gas position as gas prices plummeted to a two-year low.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Posted 9/30/2006 10:28 AM ET

hk ab 02:36 GMT October 1, 2006 Reply   
nt//kiwi made a 2nd key day reversal, I saw 4hr, daily chart are still in uptrend. Do you become neutral with it? apart from the analyst echoes, I think the solid comment from Cullen serves as the nail on the coffin to the pair. opinion welcomes.

eur very very rangy in daily chart could continue or a break @1.26 will bring all the cousins down and parade the censored and newspaper man. Halloween comes.

I am very interested at dlr/jpy at the moment as well.

sell slowly above 118 dlr/jpy, buy eur limit @1.2600 tight stop + gold long @595 limit (tight s/l) are the games for me next week.


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