Forex Forum Archive for 02/27/2006

New York My4xGuru 23:56 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Pair Sell/Buy at P/L (pips)
EUR/USD 10 S 1.1859 +8 2/27/2006 11:37
GPB/USD 10 B 1.7406 -11 2/27/2006 11:29

this is how my trading station looks like...

I am not a pro,I am just learning I am on a demo account. Don't listen to me!

London Templar 23:51 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Gooner - I would be of the opinion the market has already priced the ECB in.

glgt

London Gooner 23:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Bought EUR at 1.1850 s/l @ 1.1800
Buying Euros ahead of ECB. As it should be very well supported by ECB with rate hike speculation.
I am not certain we will see 1.1770 position trade at all.
If we see 1.1770 we may as will see well below 1.1640.
Traget is in the 1.2050s. Time frame 4 days max. Lack of follow through on the downside on EUR offers good buy with affordable stops to play the Cable
either way for Capital preservation or maximise and also profit making on Cable sell if breaks down. Take the risk on upside EUR but hedge with GBP sells if breaks down and let EUR stop
anyway.
P/L job.
GL & GT

Syd 23:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AUD/USD -- to drift after last night's mild fall in gold and base metals prices. NAB strategists say AUD/USD has "no clear direction" and is unlikely to be impacted by 0030 GMT release of Australia's 4Q current account deficit if data meet consensus of A$13.6 billion, slight widening from A$13.5 billion previously. Suncorp's strategist analyst Peter Pontikis expects AUD/USD keep its familiar trading range near 0.7400 today; adds key trigger for short squeeze would be close near 0.7425, which remains risk.
DJ

New York My4xGuru 23:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Prices finally broke out of recent range yesterday, but the move stalled at
1.1825 and the pairing now consolidates above. Dailies remain bearish but
nearer to oversold levels. The lack of a serious bounce from new lows gives
bears the edge. Our bias is to sell a failure into 1.1880-85 intraday highs.
Hourlies are mid-range now. (ams/RD) [22:43 GMT]
end



[1.1844] 23:30 GMT MON 27 FEB



| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2025(M) |Daily High Feb 10 |Flat On A Failure | [FLAT at]
: 1.1975(M) |Daily High Feb 20 |Take Profit, Buy Break | [1.1830]
: 1.1935(M) |Daily High Feb 24 |Flat On a Failure |
: 1.1885(M) |Hourly High Feb 27 |Sell A Failure, Buy Break|Open|27/02/06

: | TIME 00 45|

: 1.1825(M) |Hourly Dip Feb 27 |Buy A Bounce, Sell Break| |
: 1.1780(M) |Daily Low Dec 30, 1% |Cover On A Bounce |TGT |
: 1.1705(M) |Daily Low Dec 8 |Cover On A Bounce |Stop|
: 1.1665(S) |Spike Low Dec 2 |Take Profit, Sell Break |
============|==========================|=========================|=============


[IFR Forex Watch]


Anybody short on Eur/Usd?

Syd 23:09 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
USD/JPY may hold above 116 in Asia on month-end buys by Japan importers but bias remains down on talk of BOJ policy shift soon, says Sumitomo Trust dealer Shigeru Komatsu; cap at 116.50. "Risks for the dollar are on the downside ahead of (Japan) CPI Friday" so watch out for January industrial output at 2350 GMT (Dow Jones poll tips 0.5% on-month rise); even if Japan importers buy, USD/JPY may go below 116 if data beat forecast

Syd 21:30 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Australia's Abare Tips US$560 Gold This Year,US$580 Next
The Australian government's commodity forecaster expects the price of gold to stay strong this year and next driven by ongoing concerns over inflation, U.S. external debts and Mideast geopolitics. Spot gold, currently trading around US$557 a troy ounce, is expected to average US$560 this year and US$580 next year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare, said in a report Tuesday. Besides the macroeconomic drivers, it expects further support for the metal to come from ongoing speculation about central bank gold purchases, continued fund asset diversification into commodities and tight physical supply and demand factors.

The Netherlands Purk 21:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Bob: i think you still have to wait with the loonie. Almost no bounces will make a new low tomorrow, although i guess there are a lot of parties waiting at 1,1392...
Purk

GVI john 20:50 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
GVI FX History Loaded.

moscow mi 20:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
moscow mi 16:04 GMT February 23, 2006
couple of cents from me, 1965 is "natural" weekly resistance on euro, and "natural" bottom lies at 1825. Natural means from range movements. Some additional calculation, that were pointing to 1950 as target on euro, now show me 1824 as target after failure at 100-day ma and ATR res.
Good trades to all, as always.
---------------------
today 1825 target was met. Expecting consolidation within 1770/1920 range this week.

good trades to all

Goes Bob 20:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
the ease of moving to Canada for deeper pockets and needed diplomated people causes flow of full capitals into Canada ... now it is up to Canadians to make sure that CAD strength is historical and not something to stay as many will leave ... FWIW

Toronto 19:46 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Canada: Mergers hit $166-billion last year

Lahore FM 18:40 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
ECB meeting is an event risk.All shorts for EURGBP shud have stops at 0.6830.

New York BR 18:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:35
we dont really care about the size of your positions, just the level. tia

Lahore FM 18:35 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
I have 8 short,4 from 0.6823 and 4 at 0.6829.i won't be adding any but would suggest fresh entry for those who wish toentr now.target remains at 0.6770 and 0.6750.

prague mark 18:32 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM, do u intend to short EUR/GBP 0,6815/20 level - TIA

NYC PCM 18:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
New York forum Members

We have our 2nd get together set for March 9th at 5.00pm ish.

As last time we'll be meeting at a bar/restaurant down near the NYSE.

So if you're up for a drink ,some stimulating discussion and just hanging out with other FX traders......then get my email from Jay and let me know.

Lahore FM 17:55 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Out of 2 positions from 1.1573 at 1.1430 for 143 pips.keeping the other 2 for lower grounds like 1.1350.

Venice Ivor 17:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
NYC 17:39 GMT February 27, 2006

Yes impossible to trade, just risks at control by some big, maybe concerned hands.

btw seens that there are clashes to come between palestine and israele next days weeks

stay tuned ahead of a possible new conflict

but doubt the oligarchs will let the stock market to crash

NYC 17:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Venice. Good one. Notice that the eur/usd has made 3 sharp (if you call 20 pips) moves during the NY session. Each one has been a spurt and then little follow through. Shows you how thin it is.

Venice Ivor 17:34 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
NYC 17:21 GMT February 27, 2006

The lack of movement was generated by the following

http://www.nypost.com/business/62260.htm

NYC 17:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Market feels like it is beaten down by the lack of movement during the US session.

ss chennai 16:55 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
the whole month of feb had mainly big rise and fall in YEN crosses and many would not have noticed that they next rise and fall will be in majors...usd/yen is expected to drop big and set the trend in March

Venice Ivor 16:50 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
la oleg 15:38 GMT February 27, 2006

sorry for late answer, took off a bit reading a book about palmistry. (you never know if 12 hours 15 pips most pairs ranging markets are good for making a living - lol).

Well actully I do see those sides, but still doubt about them to have one direction out only. Am still flat (so bad if you step out of such moves is hard to reenter) and seeing if there s anything clear. But still see some 15 pips more yen strenght in last coupla hours. Will see later around closing then what the old western traders or/and plunge protectionistic marketeers will provide us.

As for now am bit concerned as my life line seems yet a long way to go and just got trough my mid age crisis lol

have a nice one

will see tomorrow after the aseans will move again another dull wester session maybe.

HK Kevin 16:49 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Looking at the price movements of many pairs in Feb, I wonder even the market makers haven't make up their minds. Let's see how the market close this month tomorrow.

prague mark 16:47 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
what about longing GBP/JPY if any one is monitoring it

Stockholm za 16:34 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

Notes.....We got stopped out at brake even today with our long counter trade on the GV/FF index. & will be looking to re-establish short position
If this pressure persists….. Trade safe…..

Rivonia PipPirate 16:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:58 Who would have known that RwandaBB has a distant cousin in Tanzania? BTW, do you leave your chegelele in the Gooses kitako overnight? Than wo'nt your wife be jealous, than arsk you why you walk with only one clog? GL

The Netherlands Purk 15:58 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
OK BR, was just joking, let us see where it ends today.
So long....
Purk

New York BR 15:55 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk,
no, my broker wasnt feeling generous nor did he have a relapse. Your post was in the future tense and so was my response. If USD CAD trades at 1.1390...... go long - good suggestion!

la oleg 15:38 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Venice Ivor 15:30 -- just an observation... see how it plays out. gl/gt.

Venice Ivor 15:36 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
lol Purk

I do think we are all behaving as paranoid when going public. At least the ol western world. At the very end the market moves in Asia only, while we plunge protecting oligopolicies.

The Netherlands Purk 15:33 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BR, did you eat dutch pie again? It did not go that far back, do you have a nice broker that gave you this price, or do you WANT to long there...
Purk

Venice Ivor 15:30 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
la oleg 15:21 GMT February 27, 2006

Yet big room for yen strenght...eurjpy shd go below 136 so the usdjpy can drop heavy by tomorrows asean session again.

eurusd as a conseguence might go lower too.. fisrt normal suport 1.1770

New York BR 15:22 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:17,
good call, long usdcad at 1.1390

la oleg 15:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
fwiw, eur/jpy and gby/jpy seem to have found some support on their daily 200 m.a's... usd/jpy is looking somewhat more precarious here.

The Netherlands Purk 15:17 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Bob, wait for dutch 19.00 than the steam run out.... But if some large party wants to long the thing at 1,14ish like 1,1392, beware of aquick reversal, it does that yiu know by now....
The yen is going to do this in the next two weeks, thank me later...
Purk

New York BR 15:15 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
1.7350 entry becomes invalid on cable should euro bears run the stops.

Goes Bob 15:14 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Venice Ivor 15:07 GMT February 27, 2006

yeap, if customer is no sugar, then banker makes a marmalade out of the customer ... SELL JAM !!!! ... cheers!

New York BR 15:13 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
London cccuk 15:07,
If you want to be short, wait for better levels or sell the break. If you want to be long, try a test of the days lows. R/R at your discretion.

moscow mi 15:12 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk - Thanks for kind answer. Best noise-less trades! LOL

Atlanta South 15:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
I hope nobody is long e/$. Check a chart for why.

Goes Bob 15:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Purky, now you talk Purkish and I do not understand anymore ... where is the price that taking long will reward singing Hallelujah in Purkish? (or Yiddish) ... thanks for your support with JPY and many thanks in advance for this one.

London cccuk 15:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
possibly...lol so i gather the general consensus is short eur/usd?

Venice Ivor 15:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Goes Bob 15:04 GMT February 27, 2006

lol

as for now there are some classic swiss politics under sharp revision. It looks they are going to close most of freuder and doubtful persons accounts. (source UBS coupla weeks ago)

but guess hard in this globla marmalade to have anything different than a strange tasting marmelade.

Bandung Ina Panca 15:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hello !

New York BR 15:06 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
London cccuk 15:04
Are you suffering from the herd mentality?

New York BR 15:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Correction - that is 1.1800 and 1.1830 (incorrect decimal usage)

Goes Bob 15:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Venice Ivor 15:02 GMT February 27, 2006

and the Swiss will make sure they will pay the loans back.

London cccuk 15:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
is anyone currently long eur/usd? tia

The Netherlands Purk 15:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Well Bob, guess that when the steam runs out it is time for a good long there, 1,1356 was last low, but before that i am sure that a lot of big guys took profit already....
Purk

New York BR 15:03 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Looking to long cable at 1.7350 for target 1.7600 (est.) possibly 1.7700 further out.
Also looking for an opportunity to buy USDJPY at 115.55 and hold for initial targets 119.00, 121.40 and 125.00 further out.
Still holding euro shorts looking for a break of 118.00. took partial profit at 118.30 in asia.
Gl & gt all

Venice Ivor 15:02 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 14:56 GMT February 27, 2006

It looks some interest rate speculative funds switched recently from taking loans from the japanese yen into the swiss franc.

Goes Bob 15:01 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Purky, sounds like you have a carnival and the good news are that one does not to sit during carnival ... keep on having (no political) sit related parties ... 1.1418 looks like sexy number as long one will remember that 1.1280 means a disease, is it a good idea to long from here? ... with other pairs/crosses I wait for entry orders to trigger ... roger ... happy trading ... cheers!

The Netherlands Purk 15:00 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Moscow man: i only know that this pair is traded by very large parties. As every trader they need profit, so also this journey will come to an end, i am happy because i closed some possies on Friday, so now i can reload again... I do not trade noise, i just add when good levels are seen.
Purk

London cccuk 14:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
02-27 17:00 *DJ US Jan New Home Sales -5.0% To 1.233M; Est. 1.270M

Moscow Anatoly 14:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
U.S. New Home Sales Fell 5% in January to 1.233 Million Rate

Moscow Anatoly 14:58 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
*JAN. MEDIAN HOME PRICE RISES TO $238,100, UP 6.7% FROM '05

dc CB 14:57 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
CAD...watch behavior around noon fix -12:00 EST

Rivonia PipPirate 14:57 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Tanzania Bwana 12:49 GMT ROTFLMAO

hk ab 14:56 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
IF dlr/chf can close above 1.32... the game will be more uncertain

moscow mi 14:55 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:52 - thanks, this guy love to play a "fool" game.

for longer term i bet 1000-1500 pip correction from bottom, to make some relaxation massage for bears before new attack. Whats your idea?

Venice Ivor 14:54 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Look, exactly when the Canadian started to rise.

Reuters via Yahoo! News - 21 minutes ago
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told Japan on Monday Tehran would not suspend its atomic research and development, casting doubt over whether a Russian agreement would defuse a crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

hong kong nt 14:54 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AB -- buying nikkei or toyota looks good idea on good dips (be it 20-25% correction or 3000-4000 points fall), if seen, cooler market is usually a better buy..

The Netherlands Purk 14:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Yup, i still do, one can not pick bottom or high for that matter, so just waiting to see where it ends...
Purk

moscow mi 14:50 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk - Hi man, you still see rally towards 1.16 level on this loonie guy?

thanks for input and good trades

Indo chart_psycic 14:49 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
116.12
usd/jpy will go to 114.11-114.00 as the strong support.
please hold your sell possie.

Indo chart_psycic 14:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
good evening,
plan sell gbp/usd at 1.7435, 1.7464, 1.7501
plan sell eur/usd at 1.1899, 1.1924,1.1931
plan buy usd/cad at 1.1379
all with stop loss if broken 10 pips for bid number.

la oleg 14:44 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
A Chinese state oil company is again eyeing a takeover of a major Canadian oil company -- possibly Husky Energy Inc. or Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. -- to gain a stake in Alberta's oil sands, according to reports published on-line.

China National Petroleum Corp. is aiming for a substantial acquisition this year -- between $20-billion (U.S.) to $30-billion -- rather than the series of smaller deals it struck last year, reported Upstream on its website.

Globe and Mail, reported Friday

dc CB 14:43 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Lahore.
know that, came out 13:30GMT. But Friday I had said to Kevin that I wasn't sure which day was Oil Day, as the 25 fell on a Sat.

Lahore FM 14:38 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
dc CB 14:36 GMT February 27, 2006
Trade balance record 13.3 billion day.

Venice Ivor 14:38 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
New Home Sales U.S. 1.270 mios awaited.

HK Kevin 14:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 14:24 GMT, no. Not good for long USD/CAD below 1.1450. See if 1.1420 hold. Previous position stop cut at 1.1441
Short NZD/USD & AUD/USD also covered for small profit

dc CB 14:36 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
HK Kevin
CAD...today must be Oil Day.

NEW YORK FARHUD 14:35 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Usd/cad still trading heavyu making new lows. There may be some support between the 1.1400/15 level. Watch for stops if we should trade through the 1.1370/80 level.

KL HP 14:34 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
if usdcad is leading again, then I would be looking to buy euro now for tomorrow's action, good luck

NEW YORK FARHUD 14:32 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Usd/jpy held support just above the 116.00 level. The bounce has been ralatively m,ild. The market was talking earlier about small bids just below 116.00 but now is also talking about stop losses building just below 116.00 and then more near the 115.55/60 area

Venice Ivor 14:30 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 14:23 GMT February 27, 2006

Yes It held after the december's upper jump, but think is preemptive.

Consider also the Japanese economy will not outperferom anyone untill commodities will stay high. It just bounced off the critical lows around 7K 8K ..as below 6K some big Japanese corporation coupla years ago would have been at risk of loosing their capital and controlled companies.

And doubt the relation some economists selling on cooler economy equal lower commodities. Commodities are high becouse of 6.5 billions of consumers (record hit on saturaday the 6.5 bios) and couse of tensions, casualties. Unless the mid-east tensions arent over, forget to have a change in trend, even if with tricky amplitudes typycal of market dealing with unpredicatable uncertainties.

At the end of the year in US there are elections too, and the presidential then two years later. Guess what makes an average american to choose as the preferred politician nowadays and wait for some surprises again.

hk ab 14:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Kevin//Want to have some fry geese?

hk ab 14:23 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Ivor//The trendline is v. intact in weekly chart too.
Unless something BIG can break (actually burst it) OTherwise, should make it take a rest first.

Singapore JBM 14:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
usdcad 1.1450 looks set to be gone this time which opens direct way to 1.13

Venice Ivor 14:17 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AB... to me the Nikkei made Its medium term top too. 10/11K to 16 K correction between 12K and 14K is on play after march IMHO, before anything. Usually funds increase their marketing actions when they do have too much of exposures in such particular conditions.

Sofia nov/Kaprikorn 14:15 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
MNI reports "large options expiry" for today's NY cut:
EURUSD 1.1800 & 1.1750

as seen many times the expiry level attracts the spot as a magnet - since this 1.18 level i pretty close and was once tried in the Asian session maybe it is possible thta we see a slide towards it...

Venice Ivor 14:14 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 14:06 GMT February 27, 2006
If can suggest do not go into small expensive particular indexed funds.

Try the EWJ this is the ETF you can find on nasdaq, plenty of pages on yahoo. Consider please also that is quoted trough the USD, so you carry the forex risk. (as per all the international funds they do sell however)

best

hk ab 14:06 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Many thanks Ivor.

I need the nikkei 'cos some bankers are selling me their Jap equity fund.
Want to evaluate a bit first.

Kevin//Tomorrow can tell, tonight, I think it will take a break and see attitude.

HK Kevin 13:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Too many typos! My last post should read
hk ab 13:47 GMT, do you think eur/jpy 137.40 could hold in this round for a 200-300 pips correction? Fourth day of decline, I have been trading this pair twice today. Entered long at 137.55 and covered at 137.85. Just thinking for a third try.

Venice Ivor 13:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
ab you can try this too

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5eN225&t=1d&c=

http://www.barronscommodity.com/

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NK

Gold Coast +Surfers P+ 13:51 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
EUR/USD has built temporary support base @ 1823. Next suppot @ 1776

HK Kevin 13:51 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 13:47 GMT, do you think eur/jpy 137.40 in this round for a 200-300 pips correction. Fourth day of decline, I have been ttrading this pair twice long 137.55 and covered at 137.83. Just thinking for a thrid try.

hk ab 13:47 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Vikram, tonnes of thanks!!!!

Calcutta Vikram 13:40 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 11:44 GMT February 27, 2006
Hi. You needed Nikkei charts. Please see if this helps
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeima.shtml

New York BR 13:40 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Dublin Flip 13:31,
LOL, apt reply.

Venice Ivor 13:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Dublin Flip 13:31 GMT February 27, 2006

Well the theme was discussed at Davos, but the media was obviously working on censor mode. You can find some if interested on chances to happen on the site of Nouriel Roubini.

PS
Obviously following politicians is not the best trading advise, but at times do feel governed by a team from the psychiatric hospital.. lol better go for a guinness cheers

Dublin Flip 13:31 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Hyperbole from an Italian politician during an election season. Gee What are the chances of that??? -LOL

dc CB 13:31 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Canada's current account surplus with the rest of the world increased $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter, reaching a new high of $13.3 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This record resulted from one of the highest surpluses in goods and a lower investment income deficit. The current annual account surplus reached $30.2 billion in 2005, surpassing its previous record of $29.3 billion in 2000." from Stats Canada

Moscow Anatoly 13:29 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
*CANADIAN FOURTH-QTR FARM REVENUE FALLS 3.2% FROM YEAR AGO
*CANADIAN 3RD-QTR CURRENT-ACCOUNT SURPLUS REVISED TO $7.8 BLN
*CANADA'S FOURTH QTR CURRENT-ACCOUNT SURPLUS WIDENS TO RECORD
*CANADA'S 4TH-QTR CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS WIDENS TO $13.3 BLN

Venice Ivor 13:27 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
fwiw the italian welfare minister Maroni (centre right coalition) just declared the European Union as dead.

Gold Coast +Surfers P+ 13:22 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Good day folks,
Finally, EUR/USD have good chance to test 1759 support. Hopefully we gonna see these levels tomorrow sometime.
For now, seems to me good level to close short positions @ 1777. Will reopen @ same levels long position on Wednesday / Thursday.
Good luck & good trades to all

Norway e.s 13:18 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Atlanta South
Thank you very much for yor help.gl/gt

HK Kevin 13:15 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 12:42 GMT, just in 1.1464 for your 1.16 level

moscow mi 12:53 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk - ok man, i bet too see that 1.16 level pritty soon also

Tanzania Bwana 12:49 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 12:17 GMT February 27, 2006
BTW RSA man, i just recieved word from BWannah: he is doing very nice with the YEN.

Jambo, mr Big Bwannah one funny man. He look for 120+ and mr. Market sticks a big chegelele up his kitako with 115.xx prints and he still doing very nice. that's beauty of demo accounts, no money actually lost even when you get the chengelele.

Atlanta South 12:46 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway es//

If your with us i closed that long E/Chf @ 5643
after my sytstem gave sell signal. It could
now be turning in your direction. gl/gt

The Netherlands Purk 12:42 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
moscow man, i am waiting a bit longer for my famous 11 pips...

The Netherlands Purk 12:41 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BTW RSA man, i hope that you recognize the brothers, cause they look like your stepsister...

moscow mi 12:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 12:37 - Hi Sir. Did you load some $cad for 16xx already?

good trades

The Netherlands Purk 12:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Well Bob was not answering lately, so might have had that visit from The Bwannah man.... Think he is trying to sit down...
What are you trading at the moment? The goose?
Purk

Rivonia PipPirate 12:32 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 12:17 Good that RBB stll bends over foward, er backwards to help you with decisions. He always stops first in Netherleans on his way to RSA, does he visit you or Bob, or the house with windows? BTW he comes here with 10 bluthers to visit his step-sister, not me.

hk ooozmeeh 12:19 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
DJ Japan Hosokawa: BOJ,Govt Must Communicate On BOJ Policy-2
"There is still some time left (until next week's BOJ policy meeting) so we will be closely watching developments until then and communicate closely" with the central bank, Hosokawa said.
....
"The BOJ itself has set three conditions (for ending the policy), so the decision should be made not just by looking at the CPI data but by examining overall economic conditions." Hosokawa said.
Some market players believe the chance of a March policy shift will rise further if the January nationwide core consumer price index, due out Friday, marks positive on-year growth.

The Netherlands Purk 12:17 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BTW RSA man, i just recieved word from BWannah: he is doing very nice with the YEN. Furthermore he has fun with 10 of his brothers, and all eleven are looking forward to their next visit to you, when you promised for more...
Purk

Hamstead 12:09 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 11:44 GMT February 27, 2006
Does anyone have free nikkei daily and weekly chart? TIA

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/

The Netherlands Purk 12:06 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Yen is pounding and pouding for the next two weeks Pippirate man, and he want to wear out Bwannah...
At the end i am going to long the censored thing!
The goose is playing games just to let us believe it is going either way....
Patience....
Good luck RSA man!
Pwurk

Rivonia PipPirate 11:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:28 Hi Purks. See Goose is hanging upside down from its pearch...again, snapping up those tasteless lizzards. It needs to feed on some phat Phrench Phrogs legs, you know the ones you like to eat at the Phrench resturant. What is the Yen doing to Rwanda Big Bummer? I think it is doing to RBB what he likes to do to others. LOL. GL

prague mark 11:50 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
we have seen todays lows for eur and cable - now its time to see what ammo USD bulls have left to fight loaded bears + ECB in 3 days- just IMHO

hk ab 11:44 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Does anyone have free nikkei daily and weekly chart? TIA

london phil 11:28 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hourly charts euro and usd chf making nice lower highs and higher lows may be a few pips in it for today

The Netherlands Purk 11:28 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Strategy on loonie this coming weeks: long at 1,1467 for 1,1630 and than SHORT all the way back....
Swissy: short 1,3268 for below 1,31...
Good luck
Purk

Melbourne Qindex 11:13 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market has a potential to trade between 1.1646 - 1.1965 - 1.2283 or 1.1327 - 1.1646 - 1.1965. One can easily see the significant position of 1.1646.

Melbourne Qindex 11:10 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter 11:07 GMT - EUR/USD : Around 1.1640 is a good reference point. If it fails to hold the market has a potential to tackle 1.1009.

Auckland trotter 11:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:59 GMT February 27, 2006
I have a 2005 low for the EUR/USD around 1.1640. Not sure how it fits in with your calculations.

Melbourne Qindex 10:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.1965 - 1.1646 and the mid-point reference is 1.1806.


EUR/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.1965* ... 1.1925* ... // 1.1885* - 1.1865 - 1.1845* - 1.1825 - [1.1806]* - 1.1786 - 1.1766* - 1.1746 - 1.1726* // ... 1.1686* ... 1.1646* ...


View : the medium term target is 1.1646.

Melbourne Qindex 10:53 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:52 GMT February 27, 2006
GBP/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.7035* ... 1.7120* ... // 1.7205* - 1.7248 - 1.7290* - 1.7333 - [1.7376]* - 1.7418 - 1.7461* - 1.7503 - 1.7546* // ... 1.7631* ... 1.7716* ...

Auckland trotter 10:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Still see the pressure on the EUR/USD on the downside from the 1 day 1yr chart, and the longer term charts I mentioned in my previous posting.

Don't know why the pressure is on the down for the EUR/USD, just searching for technicals to look at where it is going.

A better understanding would be nice as to the downside pressure of the EUR/USD.

hong kong nt 10:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BC -- thanks for your reply. by the way, roughly speaking, do you think crude may range 50-75 in coming months? good trades..

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
GBP/USD : the odds are in favour of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.7474 - 1.7479. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

Jakarta WK 10:25 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Hi.. Weekly range 1.31 - 1.34.. and resistent 1.3217/50 expecting of monthly are 1.37, g l

Singapore JBM 10:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
this time if 1.1450 fails, then 1.13 will be seen quickly for usdcad en route to 1.11/1.12 JIMVHO, of course bulls have their own levels for their upside targets to be fair but since I believe it will go down so my posts are about the play for downside, good luck fellows

Venice Ivor 10:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Last and go. Do not considring worth fishing tops or bottoms in such market conditions. Let the big guys kill between em first (am becoming so chinese, I guess) lol

bye bye

Venice Ivor 10:14 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Also looking from the ageing impact on economy and considering Japan the older and Italy the second, hard to believe to short sighted economists calls. Impact in Italy is disastrous, so might be in Japan (even if there might take longer to be noticed due completely different reserves and assets as Japan has financial while Italy real estate state huge properties and arts) Both are net commodities importers and suffering from huge energy and raw materials shortages.

Not that elsewhere I do see anything rosy, even the commodities rich countries are looking back to some of dictatorship styles of governments, Russia included.

hk ab 10:09 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Million thanks bc and nt.
Will keep an eye on this eur closely this few days as it may turn out to be a golden trade of the year.

Venice Ivor 10:08 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
At least a grey monday for those positined as per lower economic growth and lower commodities. Commodities will rise and economy cool sharply IMO.

Singapore JBM 10:05 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
usd's weakest link is usdcad, what now? back under 1.15 and with usd is about to turn bearish over coming months, will be interesting to see where it ends up by end of Q3

Melbourne Qindex 10:02 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:49 GMT February 25, 2006
GBP/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.7032* ... 1.7135* ... // 1.7239* - 1.7290 - 1.7342* - 1.7393 - [1.7445]* - 1.7497 - 1.7548* - 1.7600 - 1.7652* // ... 1.7755* ... 1.7858* ...


GBP/USD : The daily directional indicator is (1.7213) - 1.7372* - 1.7502. The profile of super magnets are distributed in the following manner :- 1.7205* - (1.7213) - 1.7372* - 1.7407 - 1.7502 - 1.7517 - 1.7532*. The market is under pressure if it is trading below 1.7372*.

The short term targeting level is 1.7275 - 1.7289.

Venice Ivor 09:56 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:52 GMT February 27, 2006

Am seeing the troubledsome carryfaith tactics that might take a toll driving the UsdJpy down into 114 pretty fastly. Do you

shanghai bc 09:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

AB 05:48 -- Good evening..Expecting Eur/Usd to be in the process of forming a medium-term floor..For today,in 1.1800--1.1900 range..Good trades..

auckland sc 09:49 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
any thoughts nzd in ny open ? anyone

Sydney T.E. 09:40 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
the eur is waiting to turn as soon as more buyers turn to sellers so as swing and a spike up movement, i will be buying.

shanghai bc 09:40 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

NT 07:11 -- Good evening..Not sure if Dollar Index may rise as far as 95..Expecting Dollar to top out and go down in comimg months without exceeding last year's high..Good trades..

Venice Ivor 09:36 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Think funds also suffering the Jpy strenght. And think some, those smarter cutted out most, but still room for sharp critical moves out of net funds short yen positions.

Not really a trading approach IMO, just fishing the extreme tolerances of risks in very dangerous territories.

Will see how the battle evolve staying flat. Do not like karakiri styles.

Venice Ivor 09:29 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Euroraption

Independent - Feb 25 4:31 PM
Tessa Jowell, the Culture Secretary, has been dragged into a scandal surrounding her husband and the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, after it was alleged she allowed a mortgage on their house to be used in a financial deal.

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article347842.ece

Auckland trotter 09:16 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
I have signs that the EUR/USD could turn to the upside. 1 mo 5 year abd 1 wk 3 yr charts have interest.

Anyone have any thoughts on where the EUR/USD will bottom?

Kuala Lumpur New Trader 09:02 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Auckland TY

hong kong nt 09:02 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:01 -- should read 1400 pips..

hong kong nt 09:01 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AB -- USD index monthly chart hint multi-months retracement may continue and reach 95.5-96.0, this couples with an average yearly range of 11400 pips and other fund flow factors, i guess USDX may range in 82-96 this year

hong kong nt 09:01 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AB -- USD index monthly chart hint multi-months retracement may continue and reach 95.5-96.0, this couples with an average yearly range of 11400 pips and other fund flow factors, i guess USDX may range in 82-96 this year

Auckland trotter 08:57 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Kuala Lumpur New Trader 08:33 GMT February 27, 2006
Tried to post a brief explaination about options, but the platform logged out.

To save me typing it all out again. I would suggest that you do some reasearch on the net for an explaination, read some books, or post the question on the help forum. There isn't a short answer if you want to understand how options effect the market.

Gen dk 08:46 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Jakarta Rio 08:45 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
waiting for divergence macd 30mnt

Gen dk 08:44 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Kuala Lumpur New Trader 08:41 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Has Euro rate hike on Thursday factored in?

London Gooner 08:41 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Jakarta Rio

GBP has support below 7370 @ 1.7325 - It's the rising
daily trendline.

tokyo ginko 08:34 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
long gbp here for position taking

Kuala Lumpur New Trader 08:33 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Pls explain in new. Ty

HK Kevin 08:26 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Jakarta Rio 08:19 GMT, I have a congested area at 1.7350

Jakarta Rio 08:19 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Anyone know where is the good support level for gbp/usd below 1.7370 ?

Auckland trotter 08:17 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Kuala Lumpur New Trader 07:59 GMT February 27, 2006
Do you understand what options are?

Syd 08:10 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
China PBOC Official: Aims For Stable Yuan Fluctuation
Yuan Rise Shouldn't Be Too Quick
Concerned Quick Yuan Rise May Affect Foreign Invest

Kuala Lumpur New Trader 07:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Anyone can help me how the following will effect the Euro, "[07:49 EUR/USD: Very Good Names Keep 1.1825 Option Triggers Intact] London, Feb 27. Buying from "very good names" overnight kept the 1.1825 option triggers in play but option players do note that some of the 1.1825 barriers are scheduled to roll off tomorrow. Elsewhere on the options front, the 1.1800 triggers below are reported to be weakened tomorrow when a large 1.1800 KO is expected to mature.

Canada 07:53 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

Investing is simple, but not easy.

Warren Buffett


If the losses don’t hurt, your financial survival is tenuous.

William Eckhardt

Trading Quotable Quotes

London Templar 07:32 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Martin - if you are around, whats your take on the news flowing out of Japan re shifting policy and an ending to the quantitative easing?

cheers
happy trading

hong kong nt 07:13 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

Technical Update

hong kong nt 07:12 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   

Technical Update

hong kong nt 07:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BC -- if you are around, do you think USDX 95, if seen, is a sell for position players? many good trades to you..

tokyo ginko 07:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Failure to hold above 116.30 makes USD/JPY an attractive sell for target below 115.50 levels

Biloxi FEB 05:57 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
The dollar’s move higher is finally beginning to show signs of actually reversing, having stalled over the last two weeks, but the declines have mostly come against the JPY, so far. The proximate cause for JPY strength was comments from BOJ Gov. Fukui on Thursday indicating that the BOJ would end its quantitative easing policy, which has seen massive amounts of cash injected into the Japanese financial system over the last few years. The key element that markets seem to have overlooked for the time being was that Fukui predicated the end to quantitative easing on an end to deflation in Japan. Those conditions are not yet evident, and even the BOJ’s Deputy Governor Hosokawa has suggested that deflation is far from over; though he remains optimistic that deflation can be eliminated in fiscal 2006. Moreover, Gov. Fukui has made it very clear that even after the BOJ ends quantitative easing, it will not begin tightening monetary policy for some time, and then only slightly. Fukui has explicitly indicated that interest rates will remain “very low” after the BOJ shifts policy. This suggests that current JPY strength is premature and likely represents an opportunity to re-sell JPY on strength. More likely than not, given that Fukui’s comments were before a Diet committee, Fukui’s comments are a continuation of his efforts to lay the political and public relations groundwork for an end to quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policy, a process I previously suggested would take several months.

Biloxi FEB 05:47 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
LA, I don't see the stochs as overbought yet, though since I posted they are starting to soften a little. I don't like the fact the MACD is crossing even if it is a shallow cross.

Syd 05:36 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
After "roaring back" in 1Q and triggering higher interest rates, U.S. economy will slow through rest of 2006 and into next year, leading to some reduction in official rates in 2007, according to poll by National Association for Business Economics. After expanding just 1.1% in 4Q 2005, GDP expected to rise 4.5% 1Q this year and 3.3% for 2006 as a whole, poll of 53 forecasters indicate. "Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices," says NABE President Stuart Hoffman, who's also chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

los angeles ss 05:29 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
FEB, thanks for your reply. On my hourly chart it shows euro honoring the 15 MA on the downside, with the Stochs coming down from overbought and RSI turning down. Looks like a downward take on the pair. Am I missing something on the charts you could educate me with>> TIA gl/gt

Biloxi FEB 05:23 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
LA, I was looking short on the EUR/USD as well... I don't like what I'm seeing on the hourly chart though.
Seems like the yen is the major player tonight and it is inversely affecting the dollar in other pairs....
I like the EUR/USD short for the long term but I'm less certain about the near term.

Syd 05:23 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Dow Jones] Much has been said about how aging of baby boomers is economic time bomb; some say heavy burden associated with paying for retirement - including Medicare - may prompt financial crisis. But is another potential economic impact of having aging population: Baby boomers may switch nest eggs into safer bonds, helping long-term rates low. Boomers have tended to favor stocks, which riskier but tend to offer better returns, but as they near retirement barrier they may go for relative safety, regular income of long-term bonds. This may stimulate economy by making long-term borrowing cheaper; "I can see good reasons why purchases of bonds would tend to go up" next 3-5 years, says Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel

los angeles ss 05:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
I would feel a lot better with my eur/usd short if this thing could break 1.1960 on the downside. Wonder if this latest uptick counts yet on rejecting the 1.1985 area, hourly high for today?

Syd 04:52 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Gets Strong Support At 0.7350
AUD/USD remains in familiar range despite slide in USD/JPY. Support for AUD/USD strong on dips with traders reporting substantial buyer present on any moves down toward 0.7350; one senior trader at local investment bank says buyer warrants respect and is doing business through number of domestic banks. AUD/USD now 0.7386.

Syd 04:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
New Zealand's Cullen Says Rampant Gloom Naive, Dangerous New Zealand's Cullen "Smart Money" On Return To Growth

hk ab 04:15 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
syd//I am actually very interested to buy this aud but I hope to wait till the jap sans finish their biz on aud/jpy first.
See which level will we meet. :D

Syd 04:11 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Flows - Costello's weekend move flags May tax cuts
No convincing reason for the Aud being sucked lower by the latest tumble in Kiwi aster the latter's trade data, and indeed the Aussie is managing to recover most of the NZ data losses. Ahead of what is a very heavy week for the Aud data and which offers some hope for independant price actionm the press this morning is all over yesterdays announcement by Treasurer Costello that he has commissioned two business leaders to produce an authoritiative statement on how Australia's tax system compares with others to be published in time for the May budget. This is then seen offereing a face-saving pretext for Costello to throw some of his previous caution on tax cuts to the wind. This cant do AUD any harm. helping encouraging the view that the consumer side of the growth equation will be getting some support later in the year on top of the tax cuts already slated to take effect this july. It will also maintaining confidence that whether or not RBA rates will have to go up, they are not coming donw anytime soon...


HK ab... from 4cast and worth keeping a mental note on.

hk ab 04:10 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
nt//I think I will go for that double touch today.
However, seems the people are not too enthusiastic in that. So....may be voided if there are insufficient funds.

los angeles ss 04:06 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
thanks for your comments rye. Didn't strike me till you mentioned it, but it did break out of its range. Undoubtedly we'll see it below the range bottom again over the next session or so (1.1850). gl/gt

Rye,NY et 04:00 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Eur/Usd has broken out of its consolidation to the downside. I am short a small from 1.1846 and will sell into strength over the next few days looking for 1.1735, initially, but the m/t low is now within range...imvho...GL/GT

los angeles ss 03:54 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
thanks South, gl/gt

Kuala Lumpur New Trader 03:50 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
any thoughts for Euro today?

Atlanta South 03:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Los Angeles//

I with you on that one. gt

hk ab 03:46 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
syd//thanks million.
I agree most of the parts.
For aud, I have some reservation as the repatriation looks start stronger than expected.

los angeles ss 03:38 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Euro 5/10/15/30/1 hr charts starting to look a little overextended here. Looking for a pullback to at least the mid to lower 1.1840s??

Syd 03:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
TOKYO (AP)--Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Monday contradicted his economy minister's assertion that the country has overcome deflation.

Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Sunday that Japan had beaten deflation, or a state of declining prices, hinting that the government could support a change to the country's easy monetary policy.

Koizumi suggested, however, that that judgment was premature.

"I cannot say we have overcome deflation," Koizumi said, signaling some disagreement in the government over the direction of monetary policy.

Syd 03:32 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hk ab 03:04 GMT Hi, feel Euro will come under pressure after the rate decision , prior to that will possibly take out 119. still feel Yen low not seen yet seen but not sure how long the strength will last . I am long Aud from llast weeks low and will assess this later this week

hk ab 03:29 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
the bounce @1.1830 line is interesting.
jf//any views on this little euro?

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
mkt is pricing in BOJ rumor of raising rates... yen may wake up the charts this week and increase demand subtantially for Yen...HOWEVER BOJ stated in clear words it would decide when and wouldn't be pushed into elevating the interest rate..much the same attitude of China.

hk ab 03:04 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
nt//what's your next eur entry level?

hk ab 03:03 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
syd//may I ask your stance on eur and eur/jpy. TIA! GT

GER ad 03:02 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
EUR/JPY traded low ?

Syd 02:59 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
DJ EUR/USD last 1.1860, dragged down by heavy EUR/JPY selling this morning; pair off 1.1825/30 earlier low where "very good names" eyed bidding, apparently to protect option barrier trigger at 1.1825, says Singapore dealer. Dow Jones technical analysis paints bullish intraday outlook on hourly charts with stochastic rising from oversold territory, suggesting test of immediate resistance at 1.1883.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:48 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
DAILY CHARTS and long term views:
GBP/CHF at key resistance, looks like it'll short soon. Carry trade on shorting this pair is lousey..a minus 18.85/lot/day however so it had better win or you lose carry interest plus negitive pips.

EUR/GBP at the first of two key supports and mid range in an ever tightening triangle. I have no indications on this pair..could go either way longterm. shorting carry trades yield +$6.65/lot/day and longing costs -$8.76/lot/day.

EUR/CAD seems weak to me although it's "level off" range could long, since support seems pretty firm. Long carry trades are -$5.28 and short carries are $2.68/lot/day.

USD/CHF is exploring old key resistance levels of early November, early December and early January...I'd say it looks heavy but I thought that two weeks ago too... The saving grace in this pair is the carry interest: long +$8.58 but short (which I think it's gonna do) is lousey.. a charge of -$10.68/lot/day.

BTW, my base currency for my platy is USD so the carry trade figures I've been quoting are on that basis.

London Templar 02:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
good luck to you too Bob.

Nice to know people give honest answers, instead of reffering to the astrological FX heavens.... lol

Peace be upon you brother.

London Templar 02:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
added to short usdjpy at 116.00 will add more at 116.50

Goes Bob 02:35 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Templar, good day to you ... the most honest answer is "I wish I knew" ... but, my call is that this week will have higher high than the current (117.14) ... this call has nothing to do with closing price and etc. ... good luck with happy and safe trading! ... peace!

tokyo ginko 02:31 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hi all, for those who missed dlr/yen movement today, may wanna take a look at cad/jpy. tgt 99.90 level. IMVHO

London Templar 02:26 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Bob - U expecting higher?

Where do you think we could go?

TIA

melbourne saint 02:25 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Cheers Templar
scalping like tonto here
trade ok at mo but agree with your thoughts
I'll be shorter than tattoo from fantasy island when need arises

cheers Saint

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:25 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
BTW, gold mining in Ecuador is booming. The problems have hopefully been solved regarding a bunch of Indians on the war path here, angry at the government because the oil bearing lands are being devistated by the oil barrons and no road maintenance nor infrastructure assistance is happening to the most valuable realestate in the country..the eastern oil lands. The Indians won..the government is listening and has devised a program whereby the eastern infratructure will be enhanced..with time periods phrased in that emergency legislation. I'm happy the way it turned out however if the government lied and doesn't come through, no more oil from Ecuador til it is straightened out. But I think all will be fine. I love this country. When the government doesn't listen, you just shut down the roads until they do..works like a charm Wouldn't it be cool if YOU could control your country like that?

los angeles ss 02:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
thanks Templar! short at 1.1858 now, looking for at least a retest of the session lows 1.1830s in the near term.
gl/gt

Goes Bob 02:24 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
this week's USD/JPY high not seen yet ... FWIW

Goes Bob 02:22 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Alimin, gut in a bottle reached your inbox ... cheers !!!

London Templar 02:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
SS - As per my last post to you I shorted on a break of 1.1845. I have a stop at 80. I would look to be a seller at these levels, in fact I ahve added to more at 60.

Look to trade a 1.1830 - 1.1880 level IMHO

cheers

los angeles ss 02:20 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Anyone with thoughts on eur/usd direction from the 1.1860's level currently, short term? tia

Sydney Alimin 02:17 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Goes Bob 02:12 GMT February 27, 2006

Hi mate, yes maybe should just keep quiet and enjoy the pips :) cheers

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:16 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Wellington and others// Using daily charts and long term trading objectives, I've been short EUR/CHF twice in two weeks and backed out each time with slightly neg trades. Traditionally back last July, the pair constantly bounced off resistance in the 1.5650s for two weeks before it decided to stop fooling around and short. You (and I) are betting that last week and this week's hugging contest with resistance will end towards end of this week (??). But this time I will wait 'til I see some definitive short action before entering short again. This early in the year I'd advise small possies anyway until the charts give some indication of pattern and direction (after March).

Another reason I'm not shorting this pair at this time is I am not trusting of this pair now because the climb from last support in the 1.540s in January to present has been a longer than normal hard grind, quite unlike the usual fast up down cycles we in Q2 and Q3 last year (on daily chart talking here). Being the last long has been such a difficult one for the pair, yet constant north movement, I fear it may STILL BE IN PROGRESS, so I've decided to hold off shorting until the pair starts to behave and short nicely. I would target 1.5400s taking out half at 1.5500 or thereabouts and then placing and adjusting stops daily to protect profits.

I can't rationalize why EUR would lose that much to CHF but that's the chart pattern/range. Since Jan 10 it resembles the arduous climb last June-July from support to resistance (same resistance we "hope" we are seeing NOW.

I placed a small test possie long CHF/JPY last Thursday, let her cook Friday and today's Asian open and it stopped out..I usually don't place stops but this time I did have a very tight stop as I am tired of this pair disappointing me. Right now it's punctured below key supports of late December and Jan 13...so I don't know whether it's had enough or wants to short more. CHF seems to show weekness across the board so a continued short on CHF/JPY wouldn't surprise me although I'm not betting on it. I lost minor pennies in the gamble that it would long. It will eventually but it will have to prove itself before I consider another entry.

Since CHF is a low interest rate cncy, carry trades that substitute CHF for JPY would yield the following positive interests in USD per lot per 24 hour day that my platform gives Not all platys give carry interest (or charge) and some vary in how much interest is calculated. Forum rules state we can't divulve our platforms so please don't enquire.:

long USD/JPY = $10.51
long USD/CHF = $8.58

long EUR/JPY = $5.63
long EUR/CHF = $3.34

long GBP/JPY= $19.98
long GBP/CHF= $16.61

Shorting the pairs above results in lots of negitive interest (it costs you plenty).

We are flat, waiting for somthing to pop. Signing off, likely won't be around much this week unless it rains a lot, have other business things I have to attend of an out of doors nature, while we wait for the charts to find themselves.

Goes Bob 02:12 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
good day alimin, market needs reasoning and the move is not violent (yet!) ... therefore, collect some here and around may be good trade ... have great trading week!

cheers!

London Templar 02:10 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Saint - USDJPY has broken out of a key support level at 116.75 and was unable to break fridays High. Subsequant news has come out supporting the ideas of a change in policy in Japan. Depending on where u want to TP I would say to be looking at 114.11 as an area where the trend could lead.

IMHO

melbourne saint 02:07 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Hi anyone else long UJ here 11590

Sydney Alimin 02:05 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
hi folks, just logged in, what's the driving force behind this yen's strength early week?

wellington am 01:19 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
chf weakness -
rumour is that the yen carry trade liquidation has seen the chf being used as a replacement low yielder.

I'm still short eur/chf, but watching closely.

Philadelphia Caba 01:16 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
re eur/chf:
okay guys, so we have res. around 1.5680...but..what about fundamental reason that keep eur agains chf up?? any idea, views ?? tia!

Norway e.s 01:09 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Atlanta South,GER ad And Philadelphia Capa

Thanc you wery much for your help put my stop ay 5685 and go to bed . g.l. and g.t.

Atlanta South 00:58 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway es

Your welcome & anytime.

gt

Atlanta South 00:54 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway es//

You are getting some good levels to watch. The
5680 should hold as res....if not its more up. The
levels i gave you are what i'm looking at to close
& tp. Your trade could still return to the profit
zone for you. gt

Norway e.s 00:51 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Atlanta South
Thank you very much for your opinion,looks laic you ar at the right side .put a clos stop and hoping for a smal pullbec to get out. g.t.

Philadelphia Caba 00:44 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway e.s 00:25 GMT February 27, 2006
Have shorts also, av. 1.5626 now, with stop above 1.5685..gl/gt!

GER ad 00:43 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway e.s 00:25,
Until 1.5680 is broken you may still have a winning trade.
I will short EUR/CHF near 1.5650 (The next resistance 1.5660)
with a 50 pips S/L.

London Templar 00:39 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
I feel like the Yen is yanking my chain....

Atlanta South 00:37 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
Norway es/

Ref E/Chf i'm long from 5591 & my system
is showing possible for more up until the
5675 level. Pivot point @ 5621. Not advice
just what i'm doing. Hope it helps. gt

Norway e.s 00:25 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
sombody have ona opinion about eur/chf? I am short sins friday but i start to wonder

Syd 00:21 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Wider Bird Flu Outbreak May Hit Europe's FX
[Dow Jones] Widening bird flu outbreak in Europe could weigh on European currencies, says Singapore dealer; notes Swiss government spokesman's remarks Sunday that Swiss laboratory confirmed first animal case of bird flu in Switzerland; says this follows recent bird flu cases in France, Germany and several other European countries, and would have negative implications for growth if outbreak worsens.

Syd 00:06 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
DJ EUR/USD falls to 1.1831 after sell-stop orders in 1.1860-1.1865 area tripped by broad USD strength, Singapore dealers say; one says rumors of these stop-losses may have drawn speculators into trying to trigger them; adds support now 1.1800, with resistance at 1.1850. Dow Jones technical analysis shows this morning's drop below 1.1849 (bottom of consolidation range of past two weeks) is short-term bearish and targets at least end-December low of 1.1777; drop to November low of 1.1641 in coming weeks now looks fairly likely.

auckland sc 00:00 GMT February 27, 2006 Reply   
thanks la oleg, that was my plan just wanted second opinion