Forex Forum Archive for 03/04/2006

cairo amgad 19:56 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
london man 14:39 GMT March 4, 2006
I am not experinced trader:
I think EURUSD has topped @1.2325, a slopping resistance on weekly chart came @1.2160, although i think it should correct thursday move more than it did on friday @1.1996 before continue up. i prefer selling on monday and SL@1.2053, Target 1.1964, Good risk/reward ratio. If you like long term which i prefer then sell euro and target 1.16++.

GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 19:31 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 22:02 GMT March 3, 2006

Hi Chuck. Forex works like it works for everyone i guess. You loose, and you win. I have become a positiontrader, i am using very wide stops, and they help, especially with spikes that my f... platform uses. This week i was happy, because the f.. platform did a 120 pip spike my way on the loonie. I only trade loonie,swissy and eur/usd, sometimes yen. I do the loonie because it is difficult to trade (...) I do not do paid services, i want myself to be blamed, blaming the other is not my thing. I read the OZmond brother a lot, although he does not post here anymore, but sometimes he puts in a message here, which is very useful for my direction. I trade miniaccount BTW. Happy Purky

Los Angeles ss 17:20 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
Anyone have the current weekend rate for eur/usd (not the Friday close, the current market rate). TIA

london man 14:39 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
what do you experienced people think about EURUSD with it go down or up ?presently at 1.2043

Spotforex NY 13:19 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
New York GeniusFX 09:37

I would bump out 4 of those five names and keep only The Caxton Group founder......

Jimmy Rodgers is way overrated and resting on his laurels from the mid seventies commodity boom). He is quite the character, but not the trader. He has wealth but not good judgement.....Yes he has done well recently in the commodity bull run...but factor out his 'loss' from Ref.co Capital Markets into that equation.

Soros would have one of the best 'trades' in FX history (Cable collapse of Sept 1992)...but lost of klunkers too (Yen fiasco 1993/94). But George did throw egg on the face of the bank of England and sent the EMU into disarray on one trade.....

The other tow mention I have never heard of.......

but I would put the former BoA trader (Andy Keiger???) who disrupted the Kiwi monetary policy in the list. Andy left the Bank after a bonus dispute and caused havoc on his open option trades.

Another on my list would be the trader who 'found' out about the Italian carry trade in the Italian Postal system in the mid 1990s...BEST trade EVER according to the Economist!!!!!

Global-View Research 11:48 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
Forex: Five Central Banks Meeting Next Week...see full report in our publio research section...CLICK HERE

New York GeniusFX 09:37 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
I found this pretty interesting. Who would you guys put on your top five?

http://detachedtrader.com/2006/02/detached-traders-list-of-5-traders.html

The Detached Trader's List of 5 Traders Worth Studying
"Example is the best precept" Aesop, Ancient Greek and Author


#1

Bruce Kovner, Hedge Fund Manager at Caxton Corporation
Estimated Net Worth: $2 Yards Plus
Primary Market: Currencies/FX
Summary: Harvard educated, former Taxi driver, used credit from mastercard to start trading
Personality Mention: Ultra secretive, mother committed suicide,Very creative and imaginative, politically conservative, Pro-Iraq war, from California
Best resource on Kovner: Market Wizards, pg.51; George Soros's Right-Wing Twin (New York Metro)


#2

Dan Zanger, Independent Trader, runs Chartpattern website
Estimated Net Worth: $20 Million
Primary market: Naz stocks
Summary: High school graduate, Former ski bum and swimming pool repairman, got addicted to markets from "Charting the Market" television show, took leveraged account up 29,233% in one year during tech bubble
Personality Mention: Little life outside of trading, trading extremist, trades from 88-foot yacht with international satellite reach, Raised in California, likes wines and art
Best resource on Zanger: ChartPattern.com


#3

Kenneth C. Griffin, Hedge Fund Manager of Citadel Investment Group
Estimated Net Worth: $2 Yards Plus
Primary Market: Bond Arbitrage
Summary: Started trading stock options as freshman from Harvard dorm room, bond arb as sophomore, , was running million in college, Citadel big on quantitative trading methods, $12 yards plus under management
Personality Mention: held second wedding in Garden of Versailles, taste for expensive Art, Doesn't allow anyone to talk to his former traders, tough guy to work for, Plays PS2 video games, wife runs separate hedge fund-Aragon Global, plays in soccer leagues, brainy
Best resource on Griffin: Bloomberg Piece on Griffin

#4

George Soros, Hedge Fund Manager (now passive) of Quantum Fund
Estimated Net Worth: $11 Yards Plus
Primary Market: Currencies/FX
Summary: Holocaust survivor, studied at London School of Economics, traded with Jim Rogers #5 before big fallout, Soros and network of associates gunned down cable/sterling for yards (billions) in profits in a week. Soros offshore entity alone slapped a $10 yard cable short on. Laughed when Bank of England said they would defend cable by borrowing $15 yards.
Personality Mention: Insecure, divorced two times, emotionally detached, very ballsy-will go for the jugular if he sees something, morally and politically liberal, athiest, extremely dedicated to non-profit Open Society Institute, likes chess, checkers, and tennis.
Best resource on Soros: Soros: The Life and Times of A Messianic Billionaire by Michael T. Kaufman

#5

Jim Rogers, Independent Investor, Author of Hot Commodities
Estimated Net Worth: $150 Million
Primary Market: Commodities
Summary: From Alabama, Educated at Yale and Oxford, founded Quantum Fund with Soros before 'the split' where rumors were thrown around. Fired from Morgan Stanley after the Soros split. Trades Anything and Everything with Macro outlook. World Traveler. Author of Hot Commodities , Adventure Capitalist, and Investment Biker
Personality Mention: twice divorced/ currently married, misanthrope,emotionally detached, blunt, hard to work with, very contrarian, questions everything, Very original, well studied independent thinker, very frugal, rode motorcycle around the world and later drove modified Mercedes around world for Guinness World Records.
Best resource: Market Wizards pg.283, Jim Rogers personal website

hong kong nt 08:06 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
GOLD -- think it is some 15% overbought at 575, hope to see correction to 500 to join gold's bull run..

Sydney ACC 07:18 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
I have a negative view of the Australian dollar, nonetheless with an increasingly gloomy future for the USD, one would be hard pressed to short it in the near term especially after this week’s rise in the face of increasing current account and trade deficits.
The market’s response to a favourable US ISM and the u-turn when the EUR/USD hit 1.20 is indicative of a growing negative trend towards the USD.
Australia’s problems appear to be masked behind a façade of increasing commodity prices.
Journalists today have however attempted to push the curtain to one side to show the underlying seriousness of the country’s external balances.
The January trade deficit reported Friday, the worst on record widened to AUD 2.7 billion. This admittedly was exacerbated by closedown of the North-West Shelf and the Pilbara owing to cyclones that hit the area that month.
A report I received from the Commonwealth Bank indicates they are confident that the figure will move closer to AUD 1 billion a month for the remainder of this year.
Well blow me down. The country is receiving the best prices on its commodity exports since 1974 and the best we can expect is a trade deficit of AUD 1 billion.
We have already run 46 consecutive months of trade deficits, how much longer we have to wait before we get a surplus.
Over the course of the last calendar year, the value of the nation’s exports was up 17 per cent on the December quarter of the previous year. It turns out though that 15 per cent of the increase came from an increase in prices whereas volumes increased by only 2 per cent. To my view this illustrates part of serious danger the country faces if the demand for commodities declines and prices fall even slightly.
More serious, however, is the services deficit that is the outflow due to interest and dividends.
The current account deficit for the December quarter was AUD 14.4 billion equivalent to 6.1 per cent of GDP. For the full calendar year the deficit was AUD 55.1 billion. The trade deficit was AUD 19.4 billion, meaning the financing costs amounted to a whopping AUD 35.7 billion. This deficit has to be financed year in year out. Finance costs are rising; increased interest rates will only exacerbate the services deficit further.
If as predicted the monthly deficit falls to something around AUD 1 billion per month we would have an annual deficit of at a minimum AUD 12 billion a year a reduction on last year’s figure of AUD 7.4 billion.
Yet it’s going to cost around AUD 1.5 billion per annum to refinance this year’s current account deficit and if interest rates increase by just one per cent it will cost a further AUD 4.7 billion. This wipes out pretty much the improvement in the trade account.
Economists’ predictions of an improvement in the trade account have failed to materialise. If in the event they do, the worsening in the services deficit is going to swamp any improvement recorded.
In a nutshell I cannot see any improvement in the current account deficit for the foreseeable future.
Compounding the external problems is that Australia is running a two-tiered economy. Queensland, WA and the Northern Territory economies are growing at more than 10 per cent, whereas NSW is teetering on the edge of recession. House prices remain depressed, the state government is about to retrench thousands of public servants in an attempt to balance its budget and the services sector is contracting.
There is little likelihood of the RBA increasing interest rates while the domestic economy is confronted with such conditions.
Therefore one has to consider the increasing current account deficit, the lopsided economy and ever decreasing interest differentials suggests that the future for the AUD seems clouded.
Probably a short AUD against a basket of currencies that closely reflects the TWI is the best proposition to benefit from a decline.
What does everyone else think?

Rye,NY et 03:48 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
Pacifica dp 03:09 GMT March 4, 2006
Union Bank of Switzerland...www.ubs.com

Pacifica dp 03:09 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
What is UBS?

Las Vegas DJS 02:42 GMT March 4, 2006 Reply   
For those of you who would like to read about an approach to trading based on short term positions, I have included a link that will shed some interesting light on this profitable method with somewhat less risk.
http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/atn/archives/august2003.html

Don