Forex Forum Archive for 04/1/2006

wellington am 23:51 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Two views on the dollar:
Pimco: U.S. dollar significantly overvalued:
Pimco Article

And the financial sense guys seeing 10 year bonds falling, and the DX breaking out above 91/92.
Financial Sense link

I'm not a bond trader, but the 10 year bond does look precipitously high, and falling.

Sydney ACC 21:53 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
US military spending as a percentage of GDP, 1940--2003
Fiscal Year Military spending as
percent of GDP
1940 1.7
1941 5.6
1942 17.8
1943 37.0
1944 37.8
1945 37.5
1946 19.2
1947 5.5
1948 3.5
1949 4.8
1950 5.0
1951 7.4
1952 13.2
1953 14.2
1954 13.1
1955 10.8
1956 10.0
1957 10.1
1958 10.2
1959 10.0
1960 9.3
1961 9.4
1962 9.2
1963 8.9
1964 8.5
1965 7.4
1966 7.7
1967 8.8
1968 9.4
1969 8.7
1970 8.1
1971 7.3
1972 6.7
1973 5.8
1974 5.5
1975 5.5
1976 5.2
1977 4.9
1978 4.7
1979 4.6
1980 4.9
1981 5.1
1982 5.7
1983 6.1
1984 5.9
1985 6.1
1986 6.2
1987 6.1
1988 5.8
1989 5.6
1990 5.2
1991 4.6
1992 4.8
1993 4.4
1994 4.0
1995 3.7
1996 3.5
1997 3.3
1998 3.1
1999 3.0
2000 3.0
2001 3.0
2002 3.4
2003 3.7

Canada ECR 20:22 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Rules for Trading Well and Living:

#25. Check your watch. Daylight Saving Time waits for no one.

Ormskirk tedsboy 19:05 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
MICHAEL Spencer’s ICAP has clinched a deal to acquire EBS, the world’s biggest currency and gold trading platform. Spencer has seen off fierce competition from rivals such as US stock market Nasdaq and UK broker-dealer Collins Stewart, The Business has learned.

The deal will cement ICAP’s position as the world’s biggest inter-dealer broker and boost the City of London’s challenge to New York as the world’s leading financial services centre.

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?StoryID=6C4A1DB6-25A7-4B9B-8477-51AB640CC1C9&SectionID=F3B76EF0-7991-4389-B72E-D07EB5AA1CEE&_scoops=true

hong kong nt 12:53 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Reaching a Fed fund of 5.5% this year maybe the best compromise for Bernanke. First, a long bond yield of 5.5%+ may help to sure more steady demand to fund US's ever growing deficits. Second, 4 times of 0.25% hikes may help to show his determination and build credibility to combat relative rampant inflation and cool down a bit present overheating of stock and property markets. Third, 5.5% Fed fund rate may help to moderate the speed of "irreversible downtrend" of USD/RMB (investors need to pay 3.5% interest rate to bet for 4-5% appreciation of RMB on per annum basis -- a pretty good discouragement) which is beneficial to China/US and rest of the world to steal time for strategic adjustments...

Paris BBC 10:58 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Unions reject Chirac 'compromise'

NYC RTRS 10:28 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
FOREX-Dollar gains as expectations mount for Fed hikes

NYC NYT 10:25 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Gearing Up for Slowdown in Housing

Paris 10:21 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Unrest in France tarnishes eurozone figures

Paris 10:20 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Concessions by Chirac fail to appease unions

Florida Crom 05:58 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
sanfrancisco analyst 01:18 GMT April 1, 2006

Well buddy, If you are so sure, if you are so convinced That makes your thoughts an acsioma which dont require any proves or argues because it is right from the time it was born.
My question.........: Why are you trying to prove that you are right to someone on the other end of the earth splitting your $..tt all around instead of just enjoing your superiority and consuming all the benefits of that?....
Maybe because you are not so sure that you are right.........??

FW CS 03:59 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
San Francisco Analyst
Are you sober?

sanfrancisco analyst 01:18 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
It is a fact the US spends less relative to its economy than many European countries, we just have a bigger country.

The truth hurts doesn't it?

Want some more?

sanfrancisco analyst 01:11 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Yes, this quote from the Rand economic analysis should be reflective of the truth "By comparison, U.S. defense spending was 3.9 percent of GDP in 2004." (see rand.org)

By the way, did you know Frances deficit is 120% of GDP?

Socialist ecoomics at their finest.

sanfrancisco analyst 01:08 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Actually may have gotten my figures mixed up with the deficit, which is projected to be a mere 1% of total US economy by 2009 and has been under 4%.

Defense spending is indeed fractional in comparison to total GDP. I'll re-check and post it.

In the mean time you will find many useful facts by searching my archive and simply typing either "gdp", or "deficit."

sanfrancisco analyst 00:48 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
sydney gvm 20:21 GMT March 31, 2006

Yes I've read garbage like that also. The fact is something totally different, under 5% even during the Iraq campaign.

Moscow Vasya 00:21 GMT April 1, 2006 Reply   
Lovely comments, max :)