Forex Forum Archive for 05/1/2006

Gen dk 23:59 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sydney gvm 23:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Any ideas on whether 182 Sterling will hold again on the downside - took profit on some longs today and wondering if I should buy 'em back in the next wee while TIA

London Neil 23:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 22:00// LMAO! ROFL! You dont know sh!t.Tube.

Antwerp Tom 23:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd, this is something i've been wanting to do for quite some time: may i thank you here (and i think i speak for a lot of forum members) for your relentless sharing of information with us. Your altruism is an example of what a forum should be like.
Keep on going.

Syd 22:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
French premier facing pressure on graft inquiry
Dominique de Villepin, the French prime minister, is expected to come under further pressure on Tuesday morning to explain his role in a controversial investigation into corruption allegations.
Mr de Villepin, already reeling from his failed attempt to introduce a more flexible employment contract for young people, has found himself under siege once more over what has become known as “the Clearstream affair”.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9dde2eaa-d93b-11da-8b06-0000779e2340.html

Syd 22:26 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
sydney gvm 22:21 I agree, really surprised at this he has probably done himself a bit of harm, however, you could look at it another way that the analyst are looking into it too deep and seeing again what they want to see , trying to convince the market. You dont have to be a brain surgeon to realize he is going to stop at some point, he is trying to keep the ecnomy chugging along nicely which is what its doing with the date out yesterday.

sydney gvm 22:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 21:37 - markets have gotta be astonished that Bernanke used an anchor woman as his mouthpiece - cant do his credibility much good - Fed person Moskow spoke today - surely he could have used him?!?

Tallinn viies 22:10 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
by my charts euro has formed short term top.
confirmed by stochastic. double confirmation if previous day low will be taken out.
keeping my short euro here with order to add near 1,2685.
take profit at 1,2525

Moscow Anatoly 22:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Ldn Delboy 22:00 GMT May 1, 2006
I`m not sure about other dealers.. but this one very helpful for me.. and I can`t remeber false comments from him... of course he`s everytime tells me that it his private opinion :) But I ask him time-to-time..

HCMC 22:06 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Van jv
Yes. HCMC is a city of VietNam

Ldn Delboy 22:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
I would not trust any dealer from London! I know most of them (give and take 10,000) and cannot recommend any of them (give and take 2 persons)!

Moscow Anatoly 21:42 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 21:37 GMT May 1, 2006
I spoke today with my dealer from London and he tol me that big players are ready for reverse but today (monday) we`ll not see any serious actions becasue today is thin market and noone serious will not be playing there.. So in this case he told me that we`ll see new highs but it`s not so important like tomorrow`s actions.. So I`m waiting any good action since Japanese session.. We need for it 1,5 hour.

Syd 21:37 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 21:19 GMT It seems the Funds have total control of the market especially in thin trading, one has to be careful not to interpret the move incorrectly, surprised Bernanke is surprised by the move in the market . He seems to be using Maria as his mouth piece.

UPDATE: CNBC Says Fed's Bernanke Said Markets Got It Wrong

-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo that markets and the media misinterpreted his comments last Thursday and that he was not giving a dovish signal on interest rates, the CNBC host said Monday.
Speaking on CNBC, Bartiromo said Bernanke told her "over the weekend, the media and the markets got it wrong last week in speculating the Fed is done raising interest rates ... I asked him whether the markets got it right after his congressional testimony and he said, flatly, no."
Bartiromo said Bernanke was not seeking to send a dovish message but was "trying to basically create some flexibility for the Federal Reserve, saying the Fed may pause but the data will really dictate whether more rate hikes will occur at future meetings."
She said that he could follow the example of the European Central Bank, which has been raising rates only gradually in recent months.
She later said Bernanke told her it was "worrisome" that the markets were considering him dovish.
Bartiromo said that she spoke to Bernanke at the annual White House Correspondents dinner Saturday night.
A Fed spokeswoman had no comment on the Bartiromo report of Bernanke's comments.

Ldn Delboy 21:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Iran's Euro Oil Stock Exchange Opens Next Week
http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=212013&n=32

Moscow Anatoly 21:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Van jv 21:19 GMT May 1, 2006
Yes I can see candels and I see that we have too overbought situation in daily and in 4 hourly.. so I think we should see correction because these movement could influence on weekly. Also GBP made 1000 pips till this moment since 2 weeks ago and I think correction should be anyway...

Moscow Anatoly 21:19 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 21:14 GMT May 1, 2006
Yes we can see last week situation but now present situation.. I`ll try to find some fresh info tomorrow in bloomebrg.. it`s ver interesting and I`m still thinking that we have big speculative interest from sharks.

Van jv 21:19 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 21:13 ---Anatoly--possibly , but as well we may have entered topping zone --see candles

nyc amc 21:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
JF.............U around ??

Syd 21:14 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Euro Speculative Net Long Positions at All-time High
LINK

Moscow Anatoly 21:13 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Van jv 21:04 GMT May 1, 2006
The markey made decision and it had own targets.. It`s not Bernanke`s fault that the market came in "wrong" direction. The market made weekly chart`s action and made alot of targets.. so.. right now we are in options traders and funds hands and I think we could make some upward action before strong correction for 30-50% of 3 total weeks move.

Syd 21:12 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
auckland sc 21:11 GMT tomorrow 9.30 AEST

auckland sc 21:11 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd, what time is the rate anouncment ?

Van jv 21:04 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Fed was not dovish and that the market "got it wrong," ?????
if Ben can not communicate , should he be there?

Van jv 21:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HCMC ==Suoi Tien entertainment and cultural park in Saigon-HCMC/ Vietnam?

Syd 20:58 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar Rallies Vs Majors On Bernanke Report
The dollar rallied against its major counterparts late Monday, advancing sharply in a holiday-thinned session after a report on cable TV network CNBC said the Federal Reserve's top official had stated markets had misinterpreted his remarks on U.S. interest rates. The dollar jumped immediately higher after CNBC reported that Bernanke said over the weekend that the Fed was not dovish and that the market "got it wrong," when it took his testimony Thursday before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress as an indication that the Fed was giving dovish signals on interest rates. On the day, the dollar retraced more than one cent versus the euro and almost one yen from its lowest points of the New York session, but it remained down from late Friday versus its Japanese counterpart. Speaking on CNBC, anchor Maria Bartiromo said Bernanke told her "over the weekend, the media and the markets got it wrong last week in speculating the Fed is done raising interest rates ... I asked him whether the markets got it right after his Congressional testimony and he said, flatly, no." Bartiromo said Bernanke was not seeking to send a dovish message but was "trying to basically create some flexibility for the Federal Reserve, saying the Fed may pause but the data will really dictate whether more rate hikes will occur at future meetings." Bernanke is scheduled to speak Wednesday at an economic summit in Washington and could use that occasion to further clarify his views, said analysts. The CNBC comment rattled the foreign exchange market, although thin conditions may have exaggerated movements and added to volatility. May Day holidays have kept almost all markets in Europe and Latin America closed Monday, with several Asian markets shut as well. The Golden Week holiday period helped subdue overnight trading in Japan. The markets reaction to Bernanke's comments illustrates the sensitivity of investors to any indication that the Fed may not be as dovish as markets had anticipated after Bernanke's testimony Thursday. The dollar had tumbled last week after Bernanke upset market expectations by saying what was interpreted at the time as meaning the Fed could pause in its rate hike campaign. Investors began to pile on dollar-negative bets and get out of long-dollar positions, as expectations of higher U.S. rates had been supportive of the dollar. But while the greenback jumped on the CNBC reports, analysts say that the respite for the dollar will likely be short-lived as the general consensus views the dollar as on a downward trend, particularly after the Group of Seven meeting in Washington issued a communique voicing concern over global imbalances. "I don't know if this changes a great deal from the foreign exchange point of view," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING in New York. "It (dollar weakness) started with the G7 and the general consensus that a dollar adjustment was necessary. That overarching theme still seems to be in the back of people's minds." McCarthy said that the comments reported by CNBC caused some skittishness among investors with short-dollar positions, but he doubted that "people will necessarily say that the recent dollar sell-off is about to end." The dollar had managed a partial recovery late Monday morning, pulling ahead on the euro and regaining some losses versus the yen as strong U.S. data gave the greenback some support. The combined effect of reports on March personal income and consumption, April manufacturing activity and March construction appeared to reverse the dollar selling seen earlier in the morning, said analysts. The dollar had been under pressure against the yen overnight, dropping to a six-month low in Asian trading, then extending to a seven-month nadir early in New York. The dollar rally had stalled around midday, but took another leap forward after the CNBC report rattled markets

Syd 20:54 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HSBC on Aussie Rates.
http://www.hsbc.com.au/information/research/index.html

london mamun 20:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
TOMORROW WE MAY SEE SILVER 14.70

london mamun 20:35 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Las Vegas Jon
THANK YOU FOR YOUR RESPOND. I HAVE DONE SAME TRADE AS YOU POSTED AND NOW I AM LONG FROM 1.8210. PLACED A STOP 1.8240.

Las Vegas Jon 20:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
london mamun 20:05 GMT May 1, 2006

Hi mamun. I expected some backing and filling from my exit point 1.8207. Bigger picture, this is in sell mode on failed rallies below 1.8344 for now. However, failure to take out the figure earlier is of concern. Hence, I won't be trading any more until EUR open. May have new levels and theme at that time

FW CS 20:16 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
The other 2 Fed chairman were met with financial crisis when they first went into office so Bernanke is due for a turn here. So far he has been very transparent and seems to me a yes man.

Egypt 20:11 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Here u Go HCMC !

london mamun 20:05 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Las Vegas Jon MAY I HAVE YOUR VIEW ON GBP PLEASE?

HCMC 20:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Thanks Egypt 19:58 GMT
Ok I will ready for a little bit higher level and cut loss there.
Thanks again for your kind advice.

dc CB 19:59 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
so has Bernanke just scuttled the Stock Rally and the USD collapse that he started last Thursday?

Egypt 19:58 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HCMC 19:50 GMT May 1, 2006
i think u wait for 600 or 620 it may hit there again tonight ( may not ! )

HCMC 19:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Thanks New York BR
Of course it as little as possible. I set SL at 2523 already (and TP at 2680). The problem here is there any chance for me to take profit now, will the pair move up again or downtrend is its new trend now? If so, I can close the position and cut loss, not wait till it reach the SL rate.

Las Vegas Jon 19:53 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HCMC 19:50 GMT May 1, 2006

If you don't know why you are in then best to get out IMVHO.

New York BR 19:51 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HCMC 19:50 GMT - how much are u prepared to loose?

HCMC 19:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
I've took a long position of EUR/USD at 1.2646 and it's now 2563. would u pls to give some advice, everybody? Could I still hold the position now or should I close it? (S/L 2523). Any chance for me to TP at 2680?
Your kindly reply are highly appreciated.

dc CB 19:49 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
From Briefing.com:

3:30 pm : Market spikes lower going into the close after CNBC reports that Fed Chairman Bernanke said the media misunderstood his remarks last week. The news, accompanying an interview with Chicago Fed President Moskow, has weighed heavily on bonds, lifting the yield on the 10-yr note as high as 5.145%. Further deterioration in bonds has prompted even more aggressive consolidation in the influential Financial sector while CNBC also reporting that Bernanke said it is worrisome that anyone would think of him as dovish

Las Vegas Jon 19:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
GBP/USD
covered @ 1.8207 from 1.8273

Las Vegas Jon 19:45 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
EUR/USD
Covered @ 1.2557 from 1.2617

Moscow Anatoly 19:29 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
New York BR 19:26 GMT May 1, 2006
Still holding my short since 1.2625 for 1.2555.

New York BR 19:26 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
partial profit taken at 1.2585 on shorts re:
New York BR 13:01 GMT May 1, 2006
Short Euro (fwiw) 1.2675

Antwerp Tom 17:37 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
iw Helsinki - thanks

HK Kevin 17:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Loaded small USD/CAD at 1.1119 with 50 pips stop. Good night all

Helsinki iw 17:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Tom, the upper weekly bollinger band is at approximately 1.2530 and that would be a good target in my view. We are trading outside the weekly bollingers ( 21ma, 2std) at the moment, and it is quite uncommon that a weekly candle would not even spike inside the bands.

NYC Ky 17:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Greetings! Does anybody still hold their eur/usd shorts from this morning? TIA
GL GT

Antwerp Tom 17:29 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
iw Helsinki to what level in eur you see a possible short term usd correction from oversold levels and within which timeframe?
Tia and gl gt

Helsinki iw 17:20 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
While the dollar remains oversold against the euro the trend is picking up momentum after some two quarters of sideways trading. In the very short term additional recovery in the USD may well be seen, but after breaking several key supports it looks to me like a test of the 61,8% of the USD bull run is a virtual certainty. That point is at 1.2890/00. A break there would imply that we are no longer in any correction of dollar strength but a new leg in the bear market, and would most probably see new lows. Fundamentally, the conditions are simply not there either for a stronger dollar, especially against the Asians and Brasil or Mexico. IMHO.

Atlanta South 17:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX
ref 14:50/ I agree, but it will probably
never happen. We can only hope it will
be a motivation to do so.

hong kong nt 16:54 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Crude oil (jun) resistance 73.7..

The Netherlands Purk 16:43 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
JP, i have closed my loonie positions. I will take a long this evening or tomorrow morning close to these levels. Pattern did not changed yet, and with this thin liquidity not sure where to start....
Purk

london jp 16:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
netherlands purk- do you have a stop on your usd/cad long trades or do you still see it turning around....thnx

Khi Adnan 16:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 15:42 GMT May 1, 2006
Coz I am carrying a sell position at this level.

UK Alex 15:52 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Dollar bears still have the upper hand, but are euro bulls running out of steam?

Chicago Goofy 15:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Read a lot Magnet level from Qindex on this side, Thanks for all the great post and help. All the best to you Qindex.

Van jv 15:46 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
USD/JPY----undershot support zone 114 and may aim now for 109/110---possibly recover 114 and rebounds with EUR first...??

Moscow Anatoly 15:42 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Khi Adnan 15:40 GMT May 1, 2006
if it so interesting why "ha ha ha" ?

Khi Adnan 15:40 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 15:32 GMT May 1, 2006
Very Interesting... Hahaha

HK Kevin 15:37 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
One post I always forget. Great thank to Dr Qindex for his help over the years. Wish you all the best.

Ala Forexpays 15:36 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Looks like a shooting star forming on the Euro/USD 4hr charts.

HK Kevin 15:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 15:28, now at breakeven. If EUR trades below 1.2585, the stop will be lowered to ~1.2655 before going to bed.

Moscow Anatoly 15:32 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 15:28 GMT May 1, 2006
if EUR broken 1.2600 then 1.2550 then 1.2480.. but not lower I think. GBP is more important for me :) I think we could see 1.80-1.7995 again before new rise for 1.85-1.90

Lahore FM 15:32 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
New York BR 15:25 GMT May 1, 2006
BR,looking for 1.27xx actually,let us see.

shanghai bc 15:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/:-> 06:31 GMT May 1, 2006

Thanks..Good trades..

hong kong nt 15:28 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
EURO short term downside target 1.248..

hong kong nt 15:26 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:01 GMT May 1, 2006

U have stop at breakeven or better?

New York BR 15:25 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:15 - good call, previous fib level. we need to run that on the downside to target 1.2550 (minor at 80).
Upside target 1.2690 i assume?

Lahore FM 15:15 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Bought euro 1.2610,no stops for now.

HK REVDAX 15:07 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:01 //OK...will cover 1/2 at 12550 and SOB later on.

Syd 15:02 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31 It could be the wild card that the markets overlook, will the citizens of Iran stand by and let a politician destroy their lives, I dont think so GT.

HK Kevin 15:01 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hk revdax, I am patience enough to wait for Wed. But if EUR seen 1.2550 after the 1.2615 support gone, not a bad idea to cover it for a qucik and profitable trade.
By the way, Khon Kaen is a lovely city at the north eastern part of Thailand.

NY tm 15:01 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
looks like new scenario is coming - TEST for USD bears...should be fun...;)

Khon Kaen MR 15:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK Revdax
I miss typed. The place is Khon kaen in the mid north east of Thailand.

HK REVDAX 14:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31//Actually the high price of energy is a blessing in disguise to the world. With high price comes economic incentive for inventing substitute energy.

HK REVDAX 14:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Khona Kaen MR //Tks. Where is Khona Kaen?

Ala Forexpays 14:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31 GMT May 1, 2006
Good to see you here again!

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 14:12// Gooday mate. I guess the Arabs AND brother Chavez whom I am surprised is still alive, will HAVE to adapt to electric transportation in 20 years. Back to eating fried locusts and living in tents and huts in the sand box as it was before the oil boom started a century ago. A new LiMH battery developed privately in the USA has 10x the capacity per weight of former LiMH rechargeagles and longer life, making electric transportation the forthcoming boom. Methanol fuel cells, another new discovery aided by JPL also, run at low temperature, safer, cheaper, less technology. Fuel cells are already in use in busses in England and have been for years.

Khona Kaen MR 14:29 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Hk Revdax
I have the same date for many reasons. My max target for GBP was 18429-18463. With the good move it had today 185 is also possible. Watch the fall.

Syd 14:27 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Worth a read....
Daily Report
by Black Swan Capital
And one more thing before we go this morning that you may find interesting?this was sent to me by a friend of Currency Currents (DWL are his initials). He is a Princeton educated PhD in economics. And he often throws me a line when I wade too far out into the deep-end on economics?which is quite often. These were his comments after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke last week:

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/ec3a5edd063315e/bsccc050106.pdf

HK REVDAX 14:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hongkong kevin and nt//Euro may have topped out but I think the waterfall formation which shorters will find more delicious will likely take place on May 3. Today and tomorrow will likely witness some bulls-bears battling back and forth but once the market enters into the time window of May 3, sliding formation will probably come...IMO

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 14:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
still not confidence to think gbp/usd for sell caused still not yet touch 1.8436.
so mean good timing for buy to hope 1.8436.

LDN Tim 14:19 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
U.S. construction outlays increased 0.9% in March, boosted by robust home building, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Outlays for residential construction increased 1.6% in March, the biggest increase since December.

Excluding home building, total construction outlays were flat in March.

The 0.9% gain was far higher than the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Outlays in February were revised higher to a 1% gain from 0.8% earlier and January's gain was revised higher by a tenth of a percentage point to 0.5%.

Spending by the private sector rose 1.1% in March. Public sector spending rose 0.2%.

Outside of residential, private sector outlays fell 0.1%, the weakest spending since October. Spending on offices fell 1.7%, while spending on power projects fell 5.8%. Outlays for manufacturing facilities increased 0.9%, while spending on commercial space rose 0.6%.

In the public sector, spending on power, transportation and public safety contributed to the 0.2% overall increase. Spending on schools fell 0.8%. Spending on highways and streets dropped 0.4%.

In other reports released Monday, the Commerce Department said incomes and inflation accelerated in March. Incomes rose 0.8% behind a one-time increase in Medicare drug payments. Core inflation, meanwhile, increased 0.3% and is now up 2% in the past year.

Also, the Institute for Supply Management said its purchasing managers' index rose to 57.3% in April from 55.2% in March, ahead of expectations.

LDN Tim 14:19 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
U.S. construction outlays increased 0.9% in March, boosted by robust home building, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Outlays for residential construction increased 1.6% in March, the biggest increase since December.

Excluding home building, total construction outlays were flat in March.

The 0.9% gain was far higher than the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Outlays in February were revised higher to a 1% gain from 0.8% earlier and January's gain was revised higher by a tenth of a percentage point to 0.5%.

Spending by the private sector rose 1.1% in March. Public sector spending rose 0.2%.

Outside of residential, private sector outlays fell 0.1%, the weakest spending since October. Spending on offices fell 1.7%, while spending on power projects fell 5.8%. Outlays for manufacturing facilities increased 0.9%, while spending on commercial space rose 0.6%.

In the public sector, spending on power, transportation and public safety contributed to the 0.2% overall increase. Spending on schools fell 0.8%. Spending on highways and streets dropped 0.4%.

In other reports released Monday, the Commerce Department said incomes and inflation accelerated in March. Incomes rose 0.8% behind a one-time increase in Medicare drug payments. Core inflation, meanwhile, increased 0.3% and is now up 2% in the past year.

Also, the Institute for Supply Management said its purchasing managers' index rose to 57.3% in April from 55.2% in March, ahead of expectations.

LDN Tim 14:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Factory activity expanded at a better-than-expected pace in April, although that good news was weighed down by growing pressures from energy and commodities prices

The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said Monday that its index of manufacturing activity hit 57.3 in April, from 55.2 in March and 56.7 in February. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity, and describe the breadth of the change.

Economists had expected to see the ISM index move to a reading of 54.8 in April.

"The manufacturing sector grew at a faster rate during April as production and employment showed significant strength," said Ralph Kauffman, who directs the ISM's manufacturing survey. But he added, "while many members indicate that business is good, they still have major concerns about the impact of higher prices for energy and industrial commodities."

In the ISM report, the group reported that inflation pressures ramped up. The prices index moved to 71.5 in April, a deterioration from the 66.5 seen in March.

Meanwhile, the new orders index stood at 57.6 in April, versus March's 58.4. The ISM's production report came in at 60.4, compared with 57.5 the prior month.

The ISM found favorable news on hiring, with the employment index moving to 55.8, after March's 52.5.

The ISM also reported that its inventories index for April came in at 51.3. That measure stood at 48.7 in March

Syd 14:12 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Iranian's Plans for Economy Spur Widespread Concern
Mr. Ahmadinejad does not care about the future," said Saeed Leylaz, an opposition economist and political analyst. "We have no control over oil revenues and cannot rely on it as a stable income. Once people get used to the money and their spending patterns change, they cannot return to their old lifestyle anymoreLINK

hk ooozmeeh 14:10 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
imho, maximum correction for GBP/usd for the next hours is 1.8280 and its a buy at that level....

Goes Bob 14:09 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
buying EUR and commodities currently gives a trader same book as Iran and Hamas supporters and financiers

LDN Tim 14:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
[Dow Jones] US ISM April mfg business index 57.3 vs March 55.2, higher than anticipated, was expected at 55. Employment index 55.8 vs March 52.5, production index 60.4 vs March 57.5. Stronger than expected and suggests manufacturing increased further in April and challenges the Fed's assumption the economy slowed in the 2Q

HK REVDAX 14:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:56 GMT //yes, there is a possibility. I had a not too small cycle turn of $/CAD(buy) on April 28 but has been delayed till today against an otherwise waterfall formation.

LDN Tim 14:05 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
US Apr Mfg ISM: text says 57.3 overall index shows econ "grew at a
faster rate during April as production and employment showed significant
strength. The level of activity is driving some inventory growth as the
Inventory Index moved above 50 percent, reversing a 12-month trend.
April's Index of 57.3 percent is the highest since November 2005. While
many members indicate that business is good, they still have major
concerns about the impact of higher prices for energy and industrial
commodities." 15 industries reported growth. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE
SAYING: "Gasoline and diesel price hikes in the Northeast continue to
cause concern as freight costs escalate." (Chemicals) "Seasonal ramp-up
is starting 45 to 60 days earlier than prior years." (Electronic
Components & Equipment)

Pecs Andras 14:04 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
ISM 57.3, better than exp.
Amother reason to sell dollar LOL

Syd 14:03 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Construction spending climbed at a pace far higher than expected during March, as housing sector outlays defied rising mortgage rates and shot upward.

Total spending rose by 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.199 trillion, the Commerce Department said Monday. Spending increased by 1.0% in February, revised higher than the previously reported 0.8% gain.

Wall Street had expected March construction spending would increase just 0.4%.

March residential construction spending advanced by 1.6% to $680.0 billion. Residential spending rose 1.3% in February, an unrevised number.

Non-residential construction spending was flat in March. Outlays for lodging, public safety and communication rose but spending on roads declined.

Private-sector construction spending climbed by 1.1% to $940.8 billion in March. February rose 1.2%.

Public, or government, construction spending increased 0.2% to $258.2 billion, following a 0.2% climb in February. Federal government construction outlays rose by 1.9%. State and local spending - much larger than federal spending in dollars - was flat at $238.6 billion.

LDN Tim 14:03 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
US Apr Mfg ISM data: prices paid 71.5 vs 66.5 Mar, reflecting higher
gas. New orders 57.6 vs 58.4, still high. Employment 55.8 vs 52.5 and
Production 60.4 vs 57.5. These confirm the strength in the index, which
is another piece of info showing a robust national economy.

Syd 14:02 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
US ISM April Inventories 51.3 Vs March 48.7

US ISM April New Orders Index 57.6 Vs March 58.4

US ISM April Employment Index 55.8 Vs March 52.5

US ISM April Prices Index 71.5 Vs March 66.5

US ISM April Mfg Business Index 57.3 Vs March 55.2
US ISM April Production Index 60.4 Vs March 57.5

Vienna GD 14:02 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Andras ... rally since mid of april of course

Vienna GD 14:01 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 13:55 GMT May 1, 2006
Pecs Andras 13:38 GMT May 1, 2006
Whatever the news and data, the market simply wants to sell dollar
That is what has been going on for days now... wonder why?

2) Andras: and some big "friends" were already in the know before Bernakes speech. Think of the creature of jekyll island.
Therefore the rally since mid of may.
Food for thought!

Vienna GD 13:57 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Correction:
PS: I wouldn't be surprised if gold will never again go below 600. But that's of course a wild guess ... but maybe worth to think about!

HK Kevin 13:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:47 GMT, with a little bit of luck, we may seen this week's high in EUR. A healthy correction to not lower than 1.2450 is need . Just sold tiny position earlier at 1.2682 with tight stop to testify my view.

hong kong nt 13:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:55 GMT May 1, 2006

1.269 ??

Vienna GD 13:55 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Pecs Andras 13:38 GMT May 1, 2006
Whatever the news and data, the market simply wants to sell dollar
That is what has been going on for days now... wonder why?

Andras ... it's pretty simple - Bernake and his chief!
Some folks here laughed and spotted at my remarks lst week that this is a financial pole shift. Plain and simple: US officials decided to start to devaluate the buck. No more words, enough talked. The enemy: 1) the asians 2) All those not supporting the US in pressuring the asians. The victim: the european currencies, because some stupid EU officials meant that the chinese should decide themselfs when and how much to go with the yuan.
I think the US officials did the right thing ... enough talked, enough of the asian cy devaluation bs.
The stupids (the EU) will have to pay the price - but wait once euro goes towards 1.15.
Outlook: currency devaluation wars all over the globe.
There's only one save heaven left: Gold and silver.
PS: I would be surprised if gold will never again go below 600. But that's of course a wild guess ... worth to think about!

hong kong nt 13:55 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:48 GMT May 1, 2006

EURO 1.269 maybe today's high..

HK REVDAX 13:55 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 13:52 //Please go into your technical arsenal and estimate how high Euro can go up this week under 'normal' circumstances. I do realize, however, that it can do anything and will do anything.

London Gooner 13:52 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hmmm stopped out on Short GBP at 1.8286 mid size s/l 1.8372
while having some pasta. Lucky wasn't normal size. Guess
marjet is light today will stay out til conditions are back to
normal.

hong kong nt 13:52 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:48 GMT May 1, 2006

Not only target C9 stop, real fund flow for hedging/diversification of USD assets..

slv sam 13:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:48 GMT May 1, 2006 /
you are more precise when you say: THE MARKET CAN DO ANYTHING AND IT WILL DO ANYTHING!GT

hk ooozmeeh 13:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Technical Play Of The Day Is The Dollar

1337 GMT [Dow Jones] The spot U.S. Dollar Index has confirmed last week's
long-term technical breakdown below 87.04, current trading near 85.54 leaves it
technically weak below 86.02-86.16 resistance, and charts suggests that the
index is going for targets in the 83.00 handle. The dollar is technically weak
on the intraday charts below Y112.99. The euro, conversely is technically strong
above $1.2605 and it's going for targets above $1.3000. The U.S. 10-year yield,
near 5.090% remains in the 4.9105-5.122% trading range.

Helsinki iw 13:50 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Fwiw/ Cut down on short USD position due to oversold conditions, but I am looking to go back in at first opportunity.

Very likely JPY and CAD continue to be best vehicles to short USD through.

HK REVDAX 13:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 13:45//i think this spike cleans out all C9s.

London. 13:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Parker FX Index report

New York BR 13:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
London. 13:45 - C/O Thomson ONE or DJ news wires?

HK REVDAX 13:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 13:38//There is still a top formation of Euro but it will surface when people are not talking about it. Something just cannot go up forever like there is no gravity. Try May 3.

EU ZORRO 13:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   

prague Mark....but I'm closing my shorts in the 112 lows....!!!!

VicGreen SPb 13:46 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
prague Mark
What do you mean?
Coming....
Now?

prague mark 13:46 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
sure...with instructions left to certain US boys///LOL

London. 13:45 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Currency Hedge Fund Sector Posts Another Loss In March
Currency hedge funds posted their fourth consecutivemonth of losses in March, with the Parker FX Index reporting the sector's returns fell 1.27%. March's losses kept the Parker Index on target for its third consecutive year of negative returns. For March, the index tracked the performance of 61 funds, of which 26 produced positive results and 35 incurred losses, the Stamford, Conn.-based currency fund-of-fund manager said in a statement Monday. Parker Global Strategies LLC's statement said March's losses came as the dollar posted a mixed result, rising on the back of a Federal Reserve rate increase but meeting "resistance as Asian central banks began selling and negative retail sales reports and current account deficit reports were released."
Currency hedge funds had a disappointing year in 2005, with many investors taken by surprise by dollar strength and yen weakness. This year, managers had been optimistic the industry would perform better, though some have warned that a third year of weak results could prompt some kind of shake-out in the sector. Mkw.

hong kong nt 13:45 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
VAN GECKO -- QDN not loud enough to scare the dollar bears away..CHEERIOS..

EU ZORRO 13:43 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   

prague Mark ...ha ha.....they are on holiday..!!!

prague Mark 13:40 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
BOJ is coming...

Pecs Andras 13:38 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Whatever the news and data, the market simply wants to sell dollar
That is what has been going on for days now... wonder why?

Moscow Anatoly 13:38 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:36 GMT May 1, 2006
I`m afaraid that today we haven`t any top or bottom targets... we haven`t many players on the floor.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:36 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
gbp/usd welcome 1.8436 as the top target
also eur/usd welcome at 1.2730 or 1.2766 as the top target.

prague mark 13:35 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
illiquidity might work not only on ask AND bid - so waterfall after good data might be the case as well

Moscow Anatoly 13:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Yeah.. all USD news today is perfect but we have thin market and we`ll not see any good reaction on it.. we see worse reaction only..

EU ZORRO 13:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   

Hi all...!!!!

...great to see USDJPY down here....

...tks..Dr. Qindex for all I learn from U...

LDN Tim 13:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
US MNI Capital Goods Index 66.1 for Apr 28 vs 65.3 prior, indicating
very strong conditions in the U.S. industrial sector.

Gondomar Trader.cesar 13:20 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
what hapenned to rise eurusd?

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:20 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
finally gbp/usd touched 1.8365 ,eur/usd executed at 1.2682.

Rye, NY et 13:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Rye, NY et 20:45 GMT April 28, 2006...
Short Eur/Usd 1.2631;stop 1.2655;take int 1.2550
Out on stop; looking to sell 1.2707, if seen; tight stop
The clear break of 1.2644 changes the m/t bias to up, in my view
GL/GT

Moscow Anatoly 13:17 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
nothing can rise without correction... we should see correction soon.. because in this case it named like USD default..

GER ad 13:16 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5597
60 pips S/L

Kaunas dar 13:15 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
You can name it orderly and gradual usd depreciation:)) huh

Moscow Anatoly 13:14 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
too thin market and tomorrow we should see correction in all pairs.. I thought that we`ll see just 80 pips move but I was wrong.. so I`m looking for sell in eur and gbp..

New York BR 13:01 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Short Euro (fwiw) 1.2675

Gen dk 12:57 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Frankfurt Plumber 12:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   


what's happening? huge flush comes!

London Gooner 12:51 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Short GBP at 1.8286 mid size s/l 1.8372 for now.

Moscow Anatoly 12:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
made my target on 112.80 in JPY now watching

Kaunas DP 12:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
short GBP/USD 1.8286

London Crystal Ball 12:46 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Observe 1.2658 later on and 1.83

london mamun 12:45 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
an opportunity may comining to go long silver and gold target 1470+ and 676+
buy silver 1340 and gold 640+ stop 2%

Auckland trotter 12:42 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
"Los Angeles ss 12:21 GMT May 1, 2006
Trotter -- raden asked me to drop you a note...He forecast a sell signal to be at 1.2634 area when euro was at 1.2530. His forecasts are based on his own parameters of technical analyis. Since we have seen that general area now, we should pay close attention to the price movement from this critical point, according to Raden...gl/gt"

I was not posting any comments in regardes to raden's postings - why does he see the need to reply to my postings when I was not reply to him.

Further I find it rather strange that "raden asked me to drop you a note".

What is going on here???

I will not shoot the mesenger, but, something sounds a bit off here.


I am going to bed now so will not be replying to further comments.

LDN Tim 12:35 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
[US Mar Pers Income +0.8%, PCE +0.6%, core PCE prices +0.3%,] none
of which should be considered new. Real PCE was +5.5% in Q1 in the GDP
accounts, and this report simply confirms robust spending and shows the
pattern of a Jan bump followed by slower spending. The +0.8% PI
included +$22.2b private wages vs +$19.8b in Feb, mainly due to services
income, which suggests the consumer can continue spending ahead.
Medicare D payments were +$40.9b, adding to income. Rents and farm
income were lower, and appear to be in a secular decline related to the
destruction of property. The +0.3% core PCE prices is derived from the
CPI report, where there was a surge in Mar core, and confirms inflation
fears. Rents and medical items primarily were responsible for the CPI's
jump, and do not appear to have been dampened

LDN Tim 12:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
REACT: Dollar gets a slight lift in the wake of the stronger than
expected income and PCE data. Tsys slip slightly.

Kaunas DP 12:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 11:47 GMT May 1, 2006
short gbp/usd 1.8271

covered 1.8249

LDN Tim 12:33 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
U.S. March personal income +0.8%, nominal PCE +0.6%

Haifa ac 12:27 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
BP is ready for 2-3 handles rinsing.

Auckland trotter 12:27 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland NCS 12:20 GMT May 1, 2006
Just cautious.

Try 6388853

prague mark 12:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
looks like stop fishing before data

Los Angeles ss 12:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Trotter -- raden asked me to drop you a note...He forecast a sell signal to be at 1.2634 area when euro was at 1.2530. His forecasts are based on his own parameters of technical analyis. Since we have seen that general area now, we should pay close attention to the price movement from this critical point, according to Raden...gl/gt

Auckland NCS 12:20 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter. No worries, mate...Was just curious where in Auckland you were, perhaps for a flat white...Good trades.

Haifa ac 12:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Listen to GECKO in this corner!!!

Auckland trotter 12:16 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 11:48 GMT May 1, 2006
Quick scalp paid off.

Waited 3 hours for that.

Bed time for me.

Auckland trotter 12:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 11:48 GMT May 1, 2006
"all I see is that slow profit taking is going on, below 1.2580 it should accelerate, but timing is question for zillion USD as allways"

Still would like to see you reasons - both to learn and to coment on.

Based the history of the last month, as previously posted. I see a possible EUR/USD to a consevative 1.2640 now we are appraoching the US session.

For several reasons. Bit late on my trade entry this time.

We shall see.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:04 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:21 GMT May 1, 2006
I sent the chart forcast to several email address, and part of them is this forum member.
just based on TA

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 11:59 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 09:08 GMT May 1, 2006
thanks for your question.
I mean 1.2766 as the top target, but must be looked when touch 1.2668.
eur/usd and gbp/usd still no sell signal.
eur/gbp 0.6907 is the strong support for move till 0.6930

Hollywood lgm 11:57 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Does anyone have a read on the eur/jpy I have a shot position.

HK RF@ 11:51 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
My calcu. shows that gold at 700 is a very possible reality.
Like first to see it above 665, then we may see a run.

Kaunas DP 11:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:47 GMT May 1, 2006

all I see is that slow profit taking is going on, below 1.2580 it should accelerate, but timing is question for zillion USD as allways - GT

Kaunas DP 11:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
short gbp/usd 1.8271

Auckland trotter 11:44 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland NCS 11:16 GMT May 1, 2006
"Auckland trotter. May I ask Jay for your email address, please. Need to ask you a question. TIA"

If it is a long question then, there is the help forum.

What is the nature of your question?

Maybe you could get Jay to give me your e-mail address.

Auckland trotter 11:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 09:34 GMT May 1, 2006
“The main problem in europe is, that we are (still) not ONE unique country - BUT in fact are a couple of different countries and voices and opinions.”

I do not want to post a political comment here, as I am aware there is a political forum. But there are implications in your posting in regards to the EUR as a currency, and how it behaves as a currency, as opposed to the aspect of a united Europe.

Europe will not become like the USA in the near future - politics here.

Look at the history of EEC, and the formation of the EUR. Also look at the UK role in this.

History has previous major currencies pre EUR as major influences, and this will still be looked at. The EUR is not looked at as a whole.

The EEC which the UK is a member of is, in short, a trade agreement.

The EUR currency, at present needs to be understood in terms of its history in regards to the individual countries influence - and why, and on what basis it was set up.

Ala Forexpays 11:36 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Interesting chart of the Euro, notice the first of September 2005 in relation to the USD. LINK

Auckland NCS 11:16 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter. May I ask Jay for your email address, please. Need to ask you a question. TIA

Auckland trotter 10:47 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 10:39 GMT May 1, 2006
Just interested in your assessment of the EUR/USD at the moment and how you arrived at your target figures.

tia.

Kaunas DP 10:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:21 GMT May 1, 2006

after Raden posted - Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:14 GMT May 1, 2006 - I was trying to ask re his - Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 04:30 GMT May 1, 2006 - thats all this message was about...

GT

Auckland trotter 10:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 09:08 GMT May 1, 2006
“good morning, finnaly eur/usd got 1.2634
I think still will touch 1.2766 today”

What do you base this on?

At present, because of the price movement above the short term charts I am looking at the 1day 3yr chart. Here I see a 50% fib around 1.2646 and an over bought RSI.(14).

I agree, that I still see an up pressure at the moment for the EUR/USD - but, would like to put it into context of the current market conditions.

Over the last month the EUR/USD has appeared to retract during the early UK session and then continue the trend just prior to the US session. At the moment we have no EUR or UK markets open, so I don’t expect to see much movement until the US market opens. Volume of trade is lacking. My RSI(5) is moving between oversold and over bought in a very narrow margin of pips. There are no indications for me trade the EUR/USD at the moment.

Therefore, I would be interested to learn from your approach to the market.

Vienna GD 09:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Thanks Bob, coming closer to elections that story might get some attention yes. Whether it will have great implications for the euro ... we will see.
The main problem in europe is, that we are (still) not ONE unique country - BUT in fact are a couple of different countries and voices and opinions.
Wait once europe faces a really SERIOUS problem ... that will be the day of recognition. Your story could well be one among others ... agree, that it's just a matter of time. gl, gt

hong kong nt 09:32 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
van Gecko 09:09 GMT May 1, 2006

Yes, I like your home made free chicken Chop Suey lunches with almond fortune cookies..Cheerios..

Gen dk 09:27 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 09:24 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK RF@ 09:13 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Yen is toying with the 200Wkly MA, not far above the 65Wkly M.A which overlaps nice with the last support of the Fib. fan LO-17-jan-05 to Hi-5-dec-05. Wkly Macd has still a potential for a large nominal decline, so why waste time on politics.

People were wasing time on interest diff speculations for a time, now trying to hinge on other stories.

Simply if 65WklyM.A gives way, calculate your targets.

van Gecko 09:09 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
sydney gvm 07:17.. thanks, glad to help.. ;)

hong kong nt 08:25.. you want free chicken Chop Suey lunches with almond fortune cookies written to your liking thrown in..?

Kaunas DP 09:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 04:30 GMT May 1, 2006
good morning, finnaly eur/usd got 1.2634
I think still will touch 1.2766 today, also gbp/usd since broken 1.8171 mean will go to 1.8354
hold buy possie for eur/usd and gbp/usd

Raden, 1.2766 or 1.2666???

Haifa ac 09:03 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 08:42 GMT May //LOL
Typical garbage from "ECONOMISTS" who cannot trade sheet from shinollah....and need to explain, in hindsight, why their "predictions" went awry.

HK REVDAX 08:56 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Syd 08:42 GMT//Bernanke is right on while the herds of investors/speculators are going to be wrong on! He did not say there would not be any more tightening but implicit in his scholarly statements is the notion he anticipates(hopes) the gradual tightening started years ago may lead to a tapering of inflation. However, if inflation ever gets out of control, more tightening should not be out of the question. What is 100% clear is that it is not going to be any lowering of interest rate.

Syd 08:42 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
The Times May 01, 2006
Bernanke is making markets nervous
Economic view by Anatole Kaletsky
LINKWhy are the markets increasingly nervous if the world economy is really so robust? Oversimplifying a bit, most of the contradictions between the markets and the world economy at present boil down to one word: Bernanke.

Goes Bob 08:40 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Gallic woe


GD, in general the story kept almost at silent levels ... very strange, but it will blow out ... again, EUR below 1.05 end of this year will not surprise me.

Vienna GD 08:28 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Goes Bob 08:18 ... Bob, would appreciate further details or is there a link available?

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:26 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
prague mark 08:19 GMT May 1, 2006
right.LOl

hong kong nt 08:25 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 1, 2006

Believe more people here may like you more if you may present your ideas more clearly with entry and/or exit levels..Cheerios..

prague mark 08:19 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:14 GMT May 1, 2006

very strange trade...before US data...:)

Goes Bob 08:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
French PM and President show all signs of going to jail hand in hand ... last time when EUR was at this area (1.26-1.27) came the NON ... this time, the story worth even a heavier crash ... poor EUR, will never get into youth age ... wires do their best to hide the story, seems heaviest players try to bail out off EUR longs ... again, that story can and will bring French PM and president into jail (if French justice system stands for something) ... Dolphin's insight can really help at this point.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:14 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
just bought eur/usd again at arround 1.2617 for small target 1.2668. although Europe and UK are in holiday now.
small stop loss at 1.2606

Kaunas DP 07:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Kaunas DP 05:30 GMT May 1, 2006
short GBP/USD 1.8266

covered 1.8248

sydney gvm 07:17 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
van Gecko 06:41 no need to say more mate, I enjoy your criptic comments - your view is pretty easily discernable and like some of the other LT commentators [BC and others] always worth keeping in mind - cheers

van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 06:22.. sorry not my style.. think i had already make some lives easier already with what i like to do..:)) and i had try to make your life easier with c9 observations in the Help Forum.. need i say more?

RSA yme 06:40 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
I think what Van Gecko meant with the little bears and big bears story, is that EURO can rally agian of all the big sellers get out of their losses?

Syd 06:37 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
High Fuel Price To Keep RBA On Hold- CommSec

With Australia's national average fuel price at record high, RBA won't touch interest rates, CommSec equities economist Andrew Mitchell says. RBA Board meets tomorrow to decide fate of 5.5% cash rate. RBA will be content to sit on sidelines and observe impact soaring fuel prices having on domestic spending before it makes any decision to hike rates, Mitchell says.

Miami OMIL (/:-> 06:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
shanghai bc 05:45 GMT May 1, 2006
Respect for others seems to be absent in the forum with some of the participants but that can be expected this days. I am glad to see your post on the forums as well sir hope you are well. Peace and GL

RSA yme 06:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Good day to you all. On daily charts JPY is now at 38.2% retrace. Then about 111.46 (50%). GL & GT

Syd 06:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Aussie Rate Hike Irrationally Exuberant-HFE

Australian rate rise talk irrationally exuberant, High Frequency Economics chief economist Carl Weinberg says. CPI up 3% in 1Q helping hike talk but Weinberg points out RBA didn't move when CPI hit same level in 3Q 2005. Adds RBA probably waiting for 1Q labor cost data before making decision. Benign reading will dash hike hopes and prompt sharp downward AUD/USD correction, he says.

Syd 06:27 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
U.S. hedge funds and investment banks pushed the dollar to a seven-month low against the yen in Asia Monday, as they took advantage of a holiday-thinned market to actively test the U.S. unit's downside.

The absence of usual dollar buyers like Japanese import firms and institutional players, many of whom are away for Japan's "Golden Week" holidays, also contributed to the dollar's sharp declines, traders said.

Miami OMIL (/:-> 06:26 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 05:41 GMT May 1, 2006
Thanks for the kind words I hope you are doing well sir. Peace and GT

hong kong nt 06:22 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
van Gecko 06:09 GMT May 1, 2006

You may make our live easier by giving clearer ideas. For example, sell euro at 1.265, take 1/3 profit 1.235, 1.225, 1.215 with 150 pips trailing stop..

London Crystal Ball 06:21 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
If I am not wrong Qindex was at Citibank in Singapore

London Crystal Ball 06:17 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Am adding buying odas on EurUsd if trough 1.2655. No particular idea at current, just the end of the tightening cycle takes a sharper correction, sooner or later. There might be correction too. We will see as usual that forecasts and hedge funds targeting is mostly wrong, just at time they do benefit of a primary trend, no big maths or tecniques are useful there.

Makassar Alimin 06:15 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
agree very much gecko, i am buying usdcad here 1.1164 for 1.1738 by end of this quarter, short euro for 1.2470/80

van Gecko 06:09 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
some dollar bears must think they had die & gone up to heaven with this rapid move.. but with the dollar now at major m/t support & a new month starting, it won't take much to trigger a mass exodus..
and when a few good size bears decides to unload big chunks at the same time & spook the market, the bids can disappear faster then the eyes can blink.. little bears don't have the same problem as big bears in getting out before their paper profits are h'issed into the wind..
Cheerios..

HK REVDAX 06:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 06:04 //plus a delay of one cycle day...

hong kong nt 06:04 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
HK REVDAX 05:54 GMT May 1, 2006

China and Japan long holidays may mean good time to start pullback..

Makassar Alimin 06:02 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
is BiscuitBoy still around in this forum or GVI? haven't seen him for a while

I would like to wish Dr. Q the very best in all his future endeavours too. His contribution was very much appreciated especially during ranging market or when some ideas about possible range are needed. There were times when it was a bit off, but that is just normal since nothing is perfect especially in this business. When he did make a call though, it was of very very high probability that it would be reached. Thank you again to Dr. Q.

HK REVDAX 05:54 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 05:38//Please notice that Euro has not made a higher Hi than that of Friday. Perhaps it won't.

hong kong nt 05:53 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
QINDEX -- when will you return to HK? HK comrades are waiting here to have dinner gathering with your presence. Can you and other interested comrades drop me a note at we_miss_qindex@yahoo.com ?

HK REVDAX 05:49 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Van jv 05:16 GMT //Qindex has been in the gold and jewery business for years! Commenting on fx is more of a hobby than a business to him.

shanghai bc 05:45 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   

Qindex was once a secret weapon of Citi boys in interbank market for some years while he was paid Usd 10,000 per day for his valuable service..The highest paid advisor in interbank market at that time..Other bank boys had a sigh of relief when he left Citi..He used to contribute to "Nature" magazine in his another profession as a bio-chemistry expert..I know Qindex would not like to hear this but he was born with silverspoon in his mouth..But he seems to prefer the challenge of forex market over his family business empire..Forex market was once a gentlman's business with good manners and needing lots of money for entry ticket too..Wish Qindex all the best in his family business and other private ventures..

hong kong nt 05:41 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/:-> 05:06 GMT May 1, 2006

Your posts are always as good as a bottle of cold pierre seen in the eyes of camel riders in the desert..

hong kong nt 05:38 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
hk revdax 05:13 GMT May 1, 2006
There does not seem to be any euro shorters any more.

See a few poor C9 with red eyes inside bucket shops. Even those deeply convicted dollar bears start to scale out ahead of 1.265..

hong kong nt 05:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
KL -- divide my gold short into 10 portions. Limit sell 660-669 and first two portions has been executed..

Kaunas DP 05:30 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
short GBP/USD 1.8266

Van jv 05:16 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Dr. Q will be fine. He does not need this FX questionable adventure.
I believe his Ph.D. was in chemistry or bio.., but these days he may be doing great business selling gold and diamonds to beautiful women , I would love that too.……So I wish him G.L. and hope he will occasionally visit this Forum….

hk revdax 05:13 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
There does not seem to be any euro shorters any more.

Miami OMIL (/:-> 05:06 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Respect above other things should be used in this kind of instance. Dr Qindex as he is so well know over the years of contribution to this FREE forum should be treated with some at the very least. Hope you still come around Qindex. You will be missed by many. Peace and GL to you Albert.

Florida Crom 04:39 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 04:34 GMT May 1, 2006
Crom:
On that note, am retiring for the evening, don't feel

Why? Because I dont like Tacos with $$itt inside? ;-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:34 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Crom:
On that note, am retiring for the evening, don't feel like your post deserves any more of a responce.

Chuck

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 04:30 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
good morning, finnaly eur/usd got 1.2634
I think still will touch 1.2766 today, also gbp/usd since broken 1.8171 mean will go to 1.8354
hold buy possie for eur/usd and gbp/usd

Tokyo Jon 04:17 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
EURUSD (1.2635) A Strong Bullish position is indicated at 1.2626 for advancement upto 1.2690, however I am taking a leaner view and will take profit around 1.2678 as the market strength is still indicating uncertainty

Florida Crom 04:12 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 02:53 GMT May 1, 2006

O la la, surprise surprise. You know everything but dont know that the recent baggaboom was all abt ILLIGAL immigrants and abt those who wants make them ligal to gain some extra votes on the fourthcomming elections. To me word Illigal means Jail, I dont care if it is an immigrant or a drug dealer. And I dont care how tasty Taco or Burrito are. (Btw hate those)

HOW Much "Dr.Q" (I wonder what kind of a Dr., Who and for what has awarded a tittle a Dr. to him) is gona be missed............. Lets get a minute of silence and arrange something like "Dr Q Fund" and put a buck there each of us. Finally he will get what he wanted to get from this forum. And maybe finally he may try to make some money from his quindex theory like Piphagorus or Einstain did ;-)). Or maybe I may try to replace his services like saying : " Eur Usd is going to VIBRATE between 1.3842 - 1.1624 for the next 5 years with the bias upside and a super-duper magnets around 1.26, 1.28. 1.32 1.21 etc. Ha ha."

I'm not nasty or mean. We have what we have every time and all the time. " You cant sell rice with the bugs in it" - chinese proverb. Thats what happenned. And lets forget abt it. There are many athers on this forum from whom we can learn something: Quito, Miami O'Mil, Tallin veivs, Florida Crom :-)) and many others. They dont ask for hand outs.

Evra broke 1.26 and is going ballistic. Long from 1.2050 Target 1.2950 s/l now 1.2403 with the buy orders at 1.2450, 1.25, 1.2550.

Usd/Jpy Short from 117.70. Target 110 and lower. short orders at 114. and 114.50 with s/l at 115.80.

Syd 04:09 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
IMM Commitment of traders reports - USD purge extends across the board.
Speculative (non-commercial) IMM implied USD net short positions surged to 70.278 contracts from 15.206 contracts . Greenback purge accelerated across the board, as traders loaded fresh longs in Euro. GBP and CAD, while cutting down short exposure on the JPY.

Euro long positions set a new high at a staggering 65.525 contracts, with market now so heavily biased that some vulnerability to a long liquidation cannot be excluded. GBP's popularity, helped by favourable M&G flows has carried on from the previous week as traders ar net long 12.290 contracts , the longest the market has been since Sept 05. YPY short exposure was reduced substantially as G7 weekend implications weighted in. While CHF was the only surprise looser to USD on the week with traders holding on to CHF shorts.

Rye, NY et 04:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
1.2475...fwiw...Good Trades...

pittsburgh ts 04:00 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Weekly target in eur/usd this week..anyone?

h ck 03:55 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
market movements are limited ... low volumes of trade

Singapore fs 03:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Moscow Anatoly 01:06 GMT May 1, 2006
Thanks...

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:53 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
RE: immigrant day in NYC...would hope Jay's and Spot FX's taco stands are blazing successes at the rally today. Sorry guys, I couldn't resist...no racial slurs here. (I love tacos, especially the Tex-Mex variety [read: addict] and the cultures in which they originated!)

One thought: remember, immigrants from everywhere are what the USA (melting pot of all cultures far and near) has always been about. The more profound the gene pool of a civilizaton, the more diverse and stalwart the civilization.

On a sad note, it's a shame to see Dr. Q leave. Amidst his business affairs and private life he always found time to post and answer my (and everyone else's ) questions/comments/theories/prognostications. If you count up his posts over the last several years and figure the amount of time he'd spent in calculating responses to questions as well as his advisories, then posting (keyboarding) same, Dr. Q has placed the lion's share of helpful contributions, even in the face at times of disrespect (!). He therefore rightfully gets the lion's share of applause and gratitude from us here, who are privileged to share in the many benefits of Global-View dot com, most of which are provided free by the hosts, Jay and John, absolutely free.

To currencies:
USD to me is still a surprise currency...it can go either way but remember, the big money stated from the get go this year it would trade in a controlled range all year, meaning it could end not far from where New Year's Day started it off. Frankly, if USA's econ keeps its bullishness, the popular concept of a stall in rate increases may be wrong. Besides, all of Asia wants a strong USD for as long as possible to protect marketability of their exports to their largest client. I would not be surprised if the USD wasn't manipulated/supported bigtime by Asia, Fed or no Fed. Besides, if Asia including HK holds lots of USDs and USD falls, their currencies fall with it, all so much the better for Asia's currency basket..devaluates Japan's, HK'$, India's, China's (RMB) and Taiwan's currencies.

AUD players will have their eyes on RBA's rate decision forthcoming.

Miami OMIL (/:-> 02:49 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend with O/B indicators in the Short term view we could see some pullback for now. I don't have any indication of this correction yet for the eur/usd pair but I will post the retracement levels anyway. 2490-2500, 2410-20, 2340-50 and 2280-90 for now. Key support is around the 2490-2500, 2400-10 area for now. I hope everyone enjoys my post and I thank the people that let me know. Peace and GT

HK REVDAX 02:09 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
A rough scan of my vodoos suggests that the shorts of Euro would score their victory if they could hold onto their shorts for 2 more days. But '2 more days' is a long time!

HK RF@ 02:05 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
A rough examination of the euro monthly chart proves that the chances of Euro long term has improved to a target around 1.55, and so Yen may end this rally between 85 to 95, and with the exit from carry trade things may move faster then expected. My rough estimation it may take 2 to 3 months.

AMS MATT IM 01:59 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
March personal income and spending are released on Monday along with March personal consumption indicators, March construction spending, and April ISM prices paid. Chicago Fed’s Moskow, Atlanta Fed’s Guynn, and Minneapolis Fed’s Stern speak on Monday. March factory orders are released on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks the same day followed by Fed Governor Bies KRTSPOONFULOFITUSLLEED on Thursday. Q1 non-farm productivity and unit labour costs will be released on Thursday followed by April non-farm payolls, unemployment, and average hourly earnings.



European markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day

HK REVDAX 01:46 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Mtl JP 01:40 GMT May 1//Guts don't count. What is obvious is obviously wrong!

Mtl JP 01:44 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
dlryen 2006 low of 113.41 is awful close. appreciate ideas on trading tactic.. immediate / s/t, m/term - take 'em all .. tia.

Mtl JP 01:40 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
REVDAX 01:37 / gut says dlrcad is a sell on pops against 1.12 / 1.1225 zone in the s/t.

HK REVDAX 01:37 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
FWIIW//$/CAD is struggling to recover today, and hopefully in doing so bringing along the other $ pairs.

Syd 01:17 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
With excitement building for imminent RBA hike there may be scope for knee-jerk rally of AUD/USD to 2006 highs above 0.7588 if RBA were to hike, RBC Capital Markets analyst Sue Trinh says. Still, cautions buying into levels above 0.7600/0.7620; area is very strong technical resistance, such that no rate hike decision leaves AUD exceptionally vulnerable in short-term to selloff back to 0.7390.

Colorado Chief1Oar 01:08 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
I haven't been able to stop by much for the last year, so it saddens my heart to hear of Dr. Q's departure.

I have always had the upmost respect those that post here, and for their viewpoints and opinions. The contributions of all those have made Global View the best source of quality views on the internet. Q. has played an invaluable part in reaching this pinnacle of quality and respect.

Q. I wish you the best in your future endeavours... know that you are a true gentleman who is revered, respected and will be sorely missed by all.

To all those who so selflessly contribute to Global View, thank you for all your efforts both past and future. Your opinions are welcomed and respected by many.

Best wishes and good trading to all...

Chief

Moscow Anatoly 01:06 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Singapore fs 00:53 GMT May 1, 2006
UK and some europeans banks are on holiday.. US open only...

Singapore fs 00:53 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Morning All, today is a holiday in Singapore. Yahoo.. Is Europe country and Western country having a holiday too?

Syd 00:48 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 00:31 my feeling is that most fund have reached a target for now without rocking the boat so will see sideways movement for the next few days (this week) listening to many of them over the weekend get the feeling they are all using white sticks at the moment. GT.

Eilat Dolphin 00:31 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
syd/ Hi. Presently the E/$ is almost in uncharted territories on the daylies and 4H.

Or in other words, the actual 1.2620 is going to be seen back rather soon even if the $ continues to depreciate in the coming hours and days.

And since all them Big Boys see that too and with better binoculars than ours, they will act accordingly, and the risk is more on the lower Euro side the on the upper side, imo.

In other words, does it make sense to target 1.28 within a week instead on 1.25 ?

Syd 00:23 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Michael A. Pollock
Last year, stubbornly low U.S. yields posed a conundrum for bond mutual funds and other investors. This year, the dollar may be the big wild card.

Despite a consensus that the U.S. currency has reason to weaken -- and even after recent sharp dollar declines -- some investors think the currency will end the year only modestly lower. Behind this thinking: Even after nearly two years of Federal Reserve rate increases, the economy remains strong -- meaning the Fed could well continue to boost rates beyond what the market is currently expecting.

There are big risks to being wrong.

If the dollar rebounds, as it did in 2005, people who bet heavily against it could get slammed. But if the dollar does weaken a lot this year, those who stay dollar-neutral would miss gains that might help offset the lackluster performance seen generally in the U.S. bond markets.

The dilemma is somewhat more complex for bond investors than for people who wager in the foreign-exchange market, because many non-U.S. bond markets are smaller and more difficult to move in or out of quickly.

ING Group's ING Investment Management unit has refrained from betting against the dollar. The assets it manages are about 98% dollar-denominated, says Jim Kauffmann, who oversees $60 billion as head of active fixed income.

Mr. Kauffmann is among those who believe the economy remains resilient. "I think that, at some point, the market is going to get its head around the fact that this economy is pretty vibrant and that the Fed is going to have to go further than people think, and interest-rate differentials are going to only increase between the dollar and the euro," he says.

In recent weeks, the U.S. currency has been wobbly as expectation grows that the Fed is almost finished tightening -- expectation further cemented by Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony Thursday to Congress.

By saying that the Fed may well pause in its rate-raising campaign -- which has taken the fed funds rate to 4.75% from 1% since June 2004 -- Mr. Bernanke fueled the flames of dollar bearishness and helped push the euro to its highest level since September.

David Rolley, co-head of the global fixed-income group at Loomis Sayles & Co., Boston, says that rate increases by the Fed have provided "tremendous support" for the dollar. But the end is on the horizon, he says, and if the cumulative impact of two years of tightening causes a housing-sector-driven slowdown or a drop in consumer spending, "the dollar goes down big time."

The $1 billion Loomis Sayles Global Bond Fund keeps a majority of its holdings in U.S. bonds, but it also is looking for gains from debt denominated in the currencies of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Indonesia, among others. Those positions reflect a wager on the strength of Asian economies, notably China's.

Last year, with the dollar rising, the average global bond fund shed 3%, according to Morningstar Inc.

Because of the difficulty of forecasting currencies, many fund managers are reluctant to bet on them. Still, some -- including U.S.-focused funds -- are making modest wagers.

The First American Total Return Fund recently had about 9% of its $390 million portfolio in nondollar issues, including some in Canadian dollars, euros and yen. "We don't expect a collapse in the dollar, but we think it'll decline moderately," says Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed-income at U.S. Bancorp Asset Management, Minneapolis, which manages the fund.

If that proves correct, a position in a fund with a nondollar position "could be a nice incremental boost to the returns that you will see over the next year or two," he says.

Managers of the $312 million AIG SunAmerica's Strategic Bond fund have lifted exposure to local currency bonds from countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Turkey.

Lead manager Richard Mercante of AIG Global Investment Group in New York says the firm isn't that bearish on the dollar. Rather, it is assuming that whenever markets conclude Fed tightening is ending, the dollar will take a hit. "Our asset allocation committee decided to take up our nondollar exposure to emerging markets a little bit to play that," he says.

Eilat Dolphin 00:22 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Dr. Q, may your bands always be with us, attract our wishes, repell our fears, magnetize our core (positions) and vibratize our brains cells.

Syd 00:18 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
Australia's April PMI suggests manufacturing sector continues to face headwinds from high commodity prices and relatively high AUD, compared to recent years, says Arvid Streimann, economist at UBS; "recently higher oil prices are likely to see input price pressures remain elevated in next month's survey." PMI fell 1.6 points to 50.3, slightly below long-run average level, Streimann adds.

Bexhill pj :-)

KL KL 00:07 GMT May 1, 2006 Reply   
QIndex

Tai Koh tor jher - thank you

Maybe you can still do some ninja contribution or ninja marketting to your services. I hope we have not seen the last of you and we can still catch up in down under.

Domo Arigato!!