Forex Forum Archive for 08/07/2006

USA Zeus 23:50 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:49 GMT August 7, 2006

mi - 147.54 might be a good place to start for a high risk "blade runner" possie GT

---------------------------

Excellent "fade the blade" trade right back to starting point 147.54. GT

Syd 23:43 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
FOREX-Dollar rises as some see any Fed pause as fleeting
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The dollar inched up on Monday, supported by traders trimming bets against the U.S. currency on the view the Federal Reserve may soon pause its credit tightening campaign, although not for long.LINK

sanfrancisco analyst 23:40 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Thanks for your comment Purk. GbpUsd, if flows stay consistent this dip in Asia will only amount to building liquidity for longs.

Patra alex 23:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska Moon 23:04 GMT August 7, 2006

Thanks for your comments again.

Alaska Moon 23:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Patra alex 23:01 GMT August 7, 2006
Well,Alex... it sounds like you have made a good start !!
My advise is.....Just hang in there and concentrate on money management...
Moon

Patra alex 23:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska Moon 22:47 GMT August 7, 2006

I am only live trading for one year. Learned a lot of things for this forum there are great traders in here. I don't have much experience with forex because of the "young" of my age. Day by day I'm trying to learn the market. FM is an important factor of my "education".

Philadelphia Caba 22:59 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
eur/jpy:
Eurozone bond redemptions and coupon payments due
this month are tipped to help keep the cross capped on any rallies.

re gbp/chf strenght:
news that Swiss Re is on the verge of mounting a GBP 7Bln deal for the insurance arm of Lloyds, Scottish Widows.

This week"s key UK event risk is Wednesday"s publication of the quarterly BoE inflation report. This could spur some profit-taking on long GBP positions if it is perceived to be less hawkish than expected. July"s BRC retail sales monitor is due at 00:01 BST tomorrow. This will show that annualized like-for- like sales rose by over 2%, according to The Sunday Telegraph. UK trade data is due Wednesday.
ifr

Syd 22:58 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
AUD/USD has performed poorly despite weak U.S. payroll number, a likely Fed pause and now a new spike in commodity prices, says Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ. These developments should have allowed it to move higher. It underlines strength of resistance at 0.7700 and suggests market may have been a little long. Expects Fed will maintain hawkish tone in face of rising oil price woes.

Lahore FM 22:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Added 2nd long UsdJpy at 115.14,with stops for 2 at 114.55.looking to close before fomc 1815 gmt tomm if not already above 115.70 by then.

Lahore FM 22:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska Moon 22:41 GMT August 7, 2006
Exactly Alaska Moon,the best moves come from fresh divegences on overbought and oversold situations,quicker and and sure footed.gtgl.

Gen dk 22:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Alaska Moon 22:47 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Patra alex 22:44 GMT August 7, 2006
You are welcome.... I am a relative new traders as compared to this group.... I have only traded live money for 4 years....

Patra alex 22:44 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska Moon 22:41 GMT August 7, 2006

Thank you very much for your view, much appreciated mate.

Alaska Moon 22:42 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Also...
Thanks Lahore...your input is very good !!!!!

Patra alex 22:41 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:35 GMT August 7, 2006

Thanks, are you going to take a position on USD crosses before FOMC? Thinking what's best between EUR/USD and cable if USD bear.

Alaska Moon 22:41 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Patra alex 22:32 GMT August 7, 2006
=======
If you research the hourly and/or daily charts for 6 months, you will plainly see the oppertunity to see that 100 plus pips have been made AFTER the charts show overbought or oversold... The most money I have ever made on a long started when the hourly chart was overbought...
Moon

Lahore FM 22:35 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
alex,there isn't such a thing as very overbought and overdue cirrection.

not to worry.it is already coming lower,now 219.12.

Patra alex 22:32 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:29 GMT August 7, 2006

All these seems very fine until here. Isn't it overbought? A correction isn't required since reaching previous highs?

Lahore FM 22:29 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
BOE rates were already a bit robust.by year end they are seen a notch above 5 perecent that is what makes gbp cross buying quite appealing.it has reached previous highs in a bullish mode so that explains the buying on dips sentiment.cb's have also shown very real interest we hear in diversifying into sterling like central bank of italy.some middle eastern cb's have also shown some interest in this regard.

Patra alex 22:25 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:21 GMT August 7, 2006

Thanks once again. Would like to know your view about this GBP strenght? Why traders buy more and more?

Tallinn viies 22:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
good night.

Lahore FM 22:21 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
alex,a deeper correction may not come at all of it it comes its timing would be quite uncertain IMHO.so trying to minimise the loss would be the thing to do.

Lahore FM 22:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
viies,i quite understand.i never thought we were in an argument.gtgl.

Tallinn viies 22:16 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:05 GMT - and just to close the subject. Im not here to find other traders strategies to suite with mines. I dont need it. mine ideas working very fine.
Im getting info from here which is usefull (n this not the technical mambo-jabmo, I can read charts myself) and would like to give back something to forum, maybe someone finds it usufull. I have no time to teach others here what I have studied more that 10 years...

Syd 22:14 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
AUD/USD continuing to trade slugglishly and lower. Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at ABN AMRO, attributes grim mood to concerns over general health of domestic economy. An expectation of falling confidence and rising prices could make for uncertain times in next few quarters. Sees support between 0.7580-0.7600.

Patra alex 22:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:07 GMT August 7, 2006

Fortunately, I had about 100 pips profit totally from GBP/CHF. Really, I can't understand why GBP is bought so much. Where you think GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY will top? Isn't a deeper correction needed for upward to be resumed?

Lahore FM 22:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
alex,think you have been on the wrong side of two behemoths.gbpchf and gbpjpy.gbpjpy has started minor correction.may come down to 218.60.you can chose to clsoe there.

Tallinn viies 22:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:05 - thnks mate.

Lahore FM 22:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
viies,it is perfectly fine not to fit any other trader's theories.best of trades to you.

Patra alex 22:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Can I please have your views regarding GBP/JPY? I am short from 218.124.

Thanks

Tallinn viies 22:02 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
as a factor of course. also wife mood. mood of the moon and etc. and then of course which day is. and so onn n on.
srry that I dont suite to your theory. I really believe charts include it all

Lahore FM 21:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
viies,that's very good.so are you suggesting that one may not consider the weakness or strength on crosses as a factor?even if you think so it may well be a sensible thing really.

Tallinn viies 21:45 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
lahore fm - I follow only euro-dollar.
many yeras I tried to predict-act on euro-usd using other crosses and failed. stoped that and things have turned out much better. quite many years already havnt lost money on euro-dollar

Lahore FM 21:36 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Analyst,it looks usdjpy is in no mood to correct 115.75 right ahead.

Lahore FM 21:32 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
viies 21:16 GMT
viies,if i may ask from your experience,have you seen euro rise out of a morass of heavy selling on crosses-except in case of eurjpy- and make for fresh highs in a move and make sustainable gains around pivotally importnat levels?thanx.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:23 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Au has been sideways last 5 trading days, neutral...but previously holding onto gains over last 7 weeks on daily chart. I can't see how .25% rate hike would make much difference one way or the other, I can see where Fed wording and data would. And I can see this Fed bunch of "experts" smashing a nice economy. If so, -that- WILL BE forex important. You want a cheap buck, keep hiking alright. And a cheap buck is what is needed.

Sometimes I encourage folks to think out of the box. Remember, that which makes the buck cheap is working FOR the US economy (less trade deficit, more exports, more business, more taxes) and putting too much basis points to play to actually hurt slightly the economy, then REPEALING a few 1/4%'s to 5.00% or 4.75%, buster bring your net and catch all those shorting dollars as carry trades unwind and confidence wanes in Fed decisions.

Tallinn viies 21:16 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
bought again euros at 1,2839, stop at 1,2789. target at 1,2965-70.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I think you are going to see market jitter up to and after the Fed's golden albeit cryptic words only the tooth fairy could interpret "properly". So what if Fed raises to 5.5% from 5.25? It isn't a big deal. Sure, the market may be on steroids for a while in a totally random behavior but after 24 hours after the announcement I'd day you'll see the true direction present itself. If I were you I would stay out of the market as there is absolutely no way to know what it's going to do. Flip a coin, you'll be a forum hero 1/2 the time. Wise money will sit and watch for the real move along about next day's NY close.

Tehran Reza 20:43 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
EURUSD With touching 1.2830(23.6% of 1.2560-1.2910) now be informed that if down side move break 1.2820 we will see moving around 1.2780(38.2% of 1.2560-1.2910).This moving in my mind is in most probability and is in conjugation with tomorrow FOMC rate decision,but just wait to see if 1.2820 will broken or not.If 1.2820 breaked sell EURUSD with TP at 1.2780 and SL at 1.2860.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

Syd 20:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
FOREX-Dollar rises as some see a Fed pause as temporary

The Netherlands Purk 20:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
sanfrancisco analyst 19:06 GMT August 7, 2006

I see a low in the morning as pattern tomorrow again. From where it should go up to the highs of today.Tomorrow's range should be tight as all the attention will go out to eur/usd and cable.
That pattern can be broken if we close (21:00 gmt) near the highs, than i forsee a drop of 50-60 pips. I favour the last scenario, and it looks like it is.... I was too late to take my position back so i will wait what will happen tomorrow morning.
Cheers and good luck with it!

Syd 19:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   

Pound Positioning Reaches Extreme Levels
Demand for Pounds also skyrocketed as specs added over 22,344 to in long positions. The difference between specs and commercials is over 100,000 for the first time since 3/8/2005 when GBP/USD topped out at 1.9324. This data suggests that GBP may be topping out as well over the coming weeks or months.
Positioning remains extreme as specs added to AUD longs by 4,721. The difference between specs and commercials is the largest since September 2005 when AUDUSD reversed at .7762. If the situation plays out in similar fashion here, the the next big AUD move is down.

Alaska Moon 19:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
=======
There seems to be a little dis-information out there.... The Alaska Pipeline is not shut down, It is running at 50% capacity. The field that is down produces 400 thousand barrels per day, and will probably be down for a long time...
Moon

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:27 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I'm reading stocks slipped because of oil pipeline shutdown in Alaska. Well, dunno about that..again, if Bush comes thru with his words (???) then oil reserves will be called in so in actuality no real flow interruptions will be seen. The USA has more reserves than Heinz has pickles. Unless Bush's words are thin then I don't buy oil shortage emerging from Alaska's BP pipeline issue. Of course Bush could always buy more oil from Chavez & Co. (who sells to USA).

This Fed hike deal tomorrow..seems like buzz says it's gonna be a close call. We'd look for no hike + hawkish words or hike + dovish words. I don't know what's more significant really, I guess it's a wait 'n see til mkts will tell us within 24hrs of the announcement.

While we're waiting for mkt tomorrow, geopoliticals without a doubt are FX relevant if they are serious enough threats...here's some reading..mouse over links for explanations.
High Tech terrorsit group
Verify: HERE
DOD..what it knows/did THEN THINK about spreading the human variety of bird flu...how easy it is for anyone.
Finally a a word from our "sponsor", USA DOD.

London Gooner 19:27 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nairobi TKK 18:30 GMT August 7, 2006

What's your entry level on EUR for your long?

nairobi dkm 19:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
hi all need some help on trading shares i am practising in my demo mini share account where can i get training on trading shares an information on what shares to sell or buy .
thanks all

sanfrancisco analyst 19:06 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Purk - What pattern do you see now if I may ask? I see 147.70 a pivitol zone and if price begins (and sustains) under it the upside pattern is broken even if temporarily. If not comfortable answering fully understood.

Syd 19:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Six out of 10 Japanese businesses are concerned that the economic recovery would founder if the Bank of Japan increases interest rates further this fiscal year, according to a survey released Monday by Teikoku Databank Ltd., The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported in its Tuesday morning edition.

The economy wouldn't be able to overcome the anticipated adverse impact of an additional rate increase, these companies predict.

Supposing that an additional rate hike is implemented before the March 2007 end of fiscal 2006, 60.2% of firms said they are concerned about how it would affect the economy, while 13.4% said they have no worries.

The survey also found that 15.4% of businesses feel that the economy has escaped deflation, far fewer than the 66.3% saying it has not. Some businesses located in rural areas reported that they still have difficulty passing higher costs on to their customers or see prices continuing to decline.

On the zero interest rate program's termination in July, 38.3% said the timing was appropriate, while 36.3% contended that it was too early. And 5% argued that it was too late.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Jay...or hike + dovish rhetoric------------->

The Netherlands Purk 19:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Analyst. For patterns one has to stick his face to the computer all day... but sleep can be accomplished as well...PLOL

sanfrancisco analyst 18:54 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Purk - I'll take a look at that, thanks. Been working on pattern recognition (some not conventional lately). Best of luck to you, may be back for Asia.

The Netherlands Purk 18:41 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Analyst: you know i look for patterns. No pattern no trade. I was noticing last night that we went down first, so i waited for today, and saw by opening my eyes that price moved from 14707-14753, and it was only 07.00 gmt. So i just took a range of 80 pips and shorted at 14787. Patternwise we first had to go down, and it did. If pattern remains like this we will see the highs of today again tomorrow. I like to keep it simple, up or down...
Cheers

austin mw 18:38 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
i went back 2 read the past 3 comments after fed rate hikes and if they pause and use the same statements as in past then i look for USD to fall across the board

sanfrancisco analyst 18:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Purk - I don't know about you but I entered the NY session seeing flows going against the grain with the exception of a couple of pairs so sort of had my hands tied today. I don't like going against the grain.

Alaska Moon 18:33 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nairobi TKK 18:30 GMT August 7, 2006
=======
Yes, EUR/US has been in a down trend for the past several hours... Where it will stop, I have no idea !! LOL

austin mw 18:32 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
i agree with u moscow.. eur should hold 2815

Holland Herman 18:31 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:28 GMT August 7, 2006
What sort of position Mr Purk? Is it to do with forex?

nairobi TKK 18:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I had bought EurUsd and now im at a loss position.Should I cut my losses?

The Netherlands Purk 18:28 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Well ANALYST, seems that we had the same thoughts here. Now other things in play. If it goes up all the way, than i see a downmove in ASIA.
I will take my position back at the highs...

moscow mi 18:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
EURUSD and cable is a buy here 283x and 905x for 30 and 50 pips stops, following the trend.

good trades

Beds FD 18:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
While it's quiet just wondered what people's thoughts where about the various posts last few days about CB'S selling US Dollars or CB'S buying GBP.Question is who are they selling to ?

The Netherlands Purk 18:10 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Wonder again who is going to pay for these high oilprices after a while. Alternatives already on the way up, so at some point eyebrows will go up as well...

The Netherlands Purk 18:08 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Mr. HERMAN See the archives for my answer i gave you eralier in the afternoon. Busy with chicken's are we?

Analyst: agree there. But also think that because of lack in range in cable and eur/usd the range of jpy crosses where a bit abnormal....

Lahore FM 18:06 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
long usdjpy 114.18.
half closed earlier today at 114.90-stops for the rest now at 114.50.

sanfrancisco analyst 18:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Purk - Think they'll dip it and run the stops upward, just a hunch looking at the formation.

Holland Herman 18:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:01 GMT August 7, 2006
Can you teach me how to play the euro/yen pair mr purk?

Bombay SAS 18:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USD/YEN there is a good possibility we could see 116.00 -25 in a couple of days ....

Out of my gbp/jpy shorts from 219.66 at 219.25 for +41 Pips ... GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 18:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Closed my second position in eur/jpy because with this performance i see the 14780-14799 again tomorrow... hmpf.

sanfrancisco analyst 17:58 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Bull/Bear pivitol zone has risen from 114.65 to 114.85 now in my eyes.

Lahore FM 17:50 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
1.2700 beckons for eurusd after today's sad performance and tomm's FOMC still ahead to cool the earlier fever.

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 17:42 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
And USD index back into 84.80/85.20

Tel Aviv Bob 17:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
central banks sold gold and look on gold now, central banks selling USD and ... hhhmmm

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 17:31 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Energy Dept. ready to tap emergency oil AP -

Lahore FM 17:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
thanks for the compliment,i merely noted the level from a friend's post here on ff.can't recall the id.then checked it on monthlies and found that 219.70/75 was going to pose reasonable resistance for a pause.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:08 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:00 GMT //
you really amaze me - I'm more than curious how you analysed the GBPJPY to be touching 219.70!
I was watching the pair all day and thought it will be topping around 40/50...
anyway - thanx for the imput - next time I will be more attantive

Lahore FM 17:06 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Small long UsdCad 1.1187,stops at 40.

Mtl JP 16:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
austin mw 15:30 / the big money seems to be in position: The market now puts the probability of a rate rise on Tuesday at just 20 per cent FT. fwiw.

What do you think of the odds: good set up for a "surprise" ?

madrid mm 15:47 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
FX Jedi we live in a funny world

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Here's a little song that investors should be singing as they await the results from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on Aug. 8.

(And apologies in advance to fans of The Clash.)


Will they raise or will they pause now?
Will they raise or will they pause now?
If they pause there will be trouble.
But if they raise there will be double.
So come on and let me know:
Will they raise or will they pause?

LOL

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/03/news/economy/fed_preview/index.htm

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 15:32 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
UK Alex 15:21 GMT August 7, 2006

Lol....

already 1/3 left of friday's reversal, micro quant goes differently larger time.

austin mw 15:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
anyone shorting usd ahead of fomc ?

Mtl JP 15:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
valdez 15:04 / look at the bright side: that much more left in the ground for future use.

UK Alex 15:21 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 15:03 GMT August 7, 2006
Look out for frog-eating spiders. ;-)

madrid mm 15:10 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Tomorrow
Time Country Event Previous Consensus
GMT
06:00 Germany ! Trade Balance 12.90 B 13.10 B
10:00 Germany ! Industrial Production (MoM) 1.50 % 0.20 %
10:00 Germany ! Industrial Production (YoY) 5.90 % 5.10 %
12:30 United States Productivity Preliminar 3.70 % 1.10 %
18:15 United States !!!FOMC Policy Announcement

! – Low volatility expected
!! – Moderate volatility expected
!!! – High volatility expected

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The corrosion found in the Alaska pipeline could better be termed erosion, the walls are eroded some 81% according to a tech news story I read this AM. 80% is the limit hence the shutdown. This news came unexpectidly soon according to one BP spokesman. It appears a major part of the pipeline is affected which to me means a big redo of most of it. It's made of stainless steel so whatever eroded it was quite abrasive. I don't see this repair job happening fast, it's a big job and fortunately yet in the warm period...but winter takes over early up there...late Sept and it's blizzarding..been there done that so look for Bush to release oil reserves to keep refineries working and supplies going. I don't see, if Bush's words prove true, that oil supplies to USA would be affected, net.

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 15:03 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
http://www.brownreclusespider.org/poisonous-spiders/poisonous-spider.htm

Lahore FM 15:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
intend to long again around 1.1170.

Lahore FM 14:55 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
long usdcad from 1.1250 was closed at 1.1225 earlier but unfortunately could not be posted.

UK Alex 14:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Zimbabwe sets 21-day price freeze

Zimbabwe has embarked on a three-week price freeze, as part of wider plans to strengthen the country's weakened economy, state media have reported.

Bombay SAS 14:28 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Short gbp/jpy 219.66 no stops at the moment .... GL GT

Middle East Josef, Yusuf & Yosef 14:25 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   

sold EURJPY @ 148 and CHFJPY @ 94 will add every 30(EUR) pips / 20(CHF) pips higher if seen

sanfrancisco analyst 14:23 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
FM - agree in general and hence my comment that while see some steam being lost near here in usdjpy i am on the bull side intra day NY.

Lahore FM 14:21 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
spikes towards 115.40/50 are in the works.

Houston et 14:20 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
STG/YEN and EUR/YEN keep on going and going ...

hk ab 13:59 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
148, 147.80 shorts both kicked in.

Lahore FM 13:57 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Florida Crom 11:25 GMT August 1, 2006
Lahore FM 11:20 GMT August 1, 2006
Eurjpy about to start its leg which will take it beyond 148.00.

You must be dreaming or, ate something bad ? ;-)


Lahore FM 11:32 GMT August 1, 2006
Crom,i never mind a divergent view really.it allows one to rethink the market.

sanfrancisco analyst 13:50 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
This is the spot where I see usdjpy maybe losing steam just a little (114.97). I remain an intra day bull for now down to 114.65 however where I change to a bear if it trades and sustains under that price zone, overall see the bias remaining a sell in the larger picture so being a bull is a bit risky. Such slow conviction it can cause a spaghetti like view.

The Netherlands Purk 13:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
If my nextdoorneighbour is watching. I say hello, watch out for the sharks. They are last seen nibbling at a parrotcage.

The Netherlands Purk 13:46 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
As we can all see, rangeexpansion in jpy crosses. I took my second short eur/jpy. There is room today for 14830ish.

austin mw 13:41 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
eurusd desperately needs to close above .2870 for scope to .2900-.2910

madrid mm 13:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
No matter what the Federal Reserve does, it's bound to cause problems.

If the central bank pauses in its quest against inflation, but commodity prices continue to rise, due to strikes, and other issues, such as supply disruptions for oil, the market is likely to be spooked.

Yet, if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the markets, which have priced in a pause, according to the Fed Funds futures, are likely to be disappointed.

If the Middle East conflict starts to spread, and Iran and Syria take an active role in the conflict, all bets are off.

From all visible points of view, the Federal Reserve is not likely to come out of the current situation with anything better than a draw.

For the financial markets, we may now be just one or two events away from some kind of significant decline, although any such decline is by no means guaranteed. by Dr. Joe Duarte,

madrid mm 13:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
from Calyon CMR

-The weak US July jobs report has pushed EUR/USD higher, but we believe the momentum of the move is already fading.
-The biggest driver of the USD at present is interest rate expectations, but following the jobs data (see Macro Alert - US July Nonfarm Payrolls: Hiring Slowdown and Higher Unemployment) markets are now only pricing in a very small probability of a rate hike at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting suggesting that any negative impact on the USD of market’s paring back tightening expectations has largely been seen. -Whilst a hike is now unlikely (we have maintained that the Fed would pause) the statement is not likely to rule out further rate hikes, suggesting that the USD could even find some support if the statement is less dovish than expected.
-This may also see renewed pressure on the near month eurodollar contracts, which could even support the USD.
-Over the longer-term we remain bearish on the USD, due to the impact of lower risk appetite, growing concerns about structural imbalances and the end of the US rate tightening cycle, but we would prefer to wait until EUR/USD drifts back down to the lower end of its current range before re-instating a long position.

sanfrancisco analyst 13:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
eurusd maintained a 2 pip range for over an hour in asia last night.

TV fcoa 13:16 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
long eur-gbp 0,6721,stop under 0,67 figure could be a nice trade.first post for in me in this forum...hope to be welcome..

Mla Evan 13:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Euro May-June double top of 1.2956-1.2979 area more important, if it breaks, bye bye dollar!

Lahore FM 13:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:06 GMT August 4, 2006
Entered new long Euchf 1.5754,no stops for now.
closed at a loss of 35 pips at 1.5719.

Tallinn viies 13:14 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
euro hourly stochastic crossed higher from oversold levels. should support move higher now

madrid mm 13:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Bahawalpur Punjab 12:56 GMT August 7, 2006
CAD
- I believe you need to be on alert due to energy rally
- There are various pressures converging on the energy sector that are sending prices higher which in turn should put you as a CAD trader on guard for an upward move.

Tallinn viies 13:09 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
REUTERS:
In the Gartman letter, Gartman says he is planning to to add to a dollar short position if eur/usd breaks above 1,2935 and remains there "for and hour or so". "given the problems globally, and given the dollar´s rather horrid response to the strong dollar policy statement made last week by the new Treasury Sec´y, we suspect that 1,2935 will be taken out sooner rather than later," he says.

Lahore FM 13:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
GbpUsd short 1.9083 closed at 1.9105.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nj jf 12:44 GMT // appreciate your insight!

up till now I was looking only the GBPJPY and USDJPY pairs for clue on GBPJPY and actually never took the EURGBP into account - for example today the GBPUSD is ranging in 20-30 pips range and the GBPJPY advance is a reflection of the JPY upmove to the 115 figure...

however now as I try to look alos the EURGBP the puzzle looks even harder to be solved...

Bahawalpur Punjab 12:56 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Look @ cad 1.1200 support hold .. is time to reversal?
any comments?

Syd 12:44 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Slightly weaker-than-expected U.K. June manufacturing data suggest the economy is not in as good a shape as some might think, says Insinger de Beaufort strategist Marc Ostwald. "I think this is a bit of a wake up call here for everybody...this is a reminder that things are not that strong," he says. "If you allow for the fact that industrial production numbers are distorted somewhat by maintenance work in the oil and gas sector, 0.1% (rise) on manufacturing output is hardly something to write home about, nor is 0.9% year-on-year." Says the value in the gilt market is now clearly in the short end of the curve.

nj jf 12:44 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
pm
to trade yen crosses i believe you must look at eurgbp to know whether to trade euryen or gbpyen- it just leads to frustration when you enter the wrong one. gl

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:36 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:26 GMT August 7, 2006
nj jf 12:22 GMT August 7, 2006

thank you both!
I looked the 1hour chart on EURGBP and GBPJPY and at present they are like mirror image...
I can assume the EUR selling against the GBP is because of the rate differential... however since ECB and BOE both raised with 0.25 maybe the reason for GBP demand is elsewhere...

FM - sorry, I couldn't understand about the pause between 35 & 70 - I figure you talk about technical levels that at my level I can not comprehend - anyway tnx for your effort!

madrid mm 12:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
out of interest, anyone playing option just before or just after the FOMC announcement tom ?

Perth PM 12:33 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nj jf 12:22 GMT August 7, 2006 .would you say that EUR/GBP is working ahead of GBP/JPY? thank.

sanfrancisco analyst 12:27 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
No sign of abatement in selling in eurgbp, eurchf in increased sell mode against the more dominant buy cycle, closing in on accellerated selling as figure is challenged. Eurgbp is receiving reduced momentum on selling however so will be watching relative levels (6725) as potential area of stalling.

Lahore FM 12:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nj jf 12:22 GMT August 7, 2006
yes jf there is certainly a noticeable link.

Lahore FM 12:25 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
291.35 and 70=219.35 and 70

Lahore FM 12:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:11 GMT August 7, 2006
between 291.35 and 70 there would be some sort of pause,hopefully,so that the shorts get to quit.the trend as is seen in gbpjpy and to a lesser degree in gbpchf is the kind that gathers momentum each passing day.the moves of a few thousand pips are possible in such trends.the pauses are really short.

nj jf 12:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
gbpyen = eurgbp trend and $yen trend

eurgbp determines which leads in bullish or bearish phase.

sanfrancisco analyst 12:21 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Good morning. See audusd in full sell condition, eurusd is only 50pct committed, usdchf 50pct committed bid, gbpusd still bid as hinted in asia, usdjpy still bid against a larger sell bias so fair r/r short coming up.

Syd 12:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
AUD/USD - AUD/USD has traded in a range for the last week primarily between .7595 and .7675. Friday's rally and failure at .7670 made a triple top at .7670/80. A triple bottom at .7600 is support. A break below .7600 would open favor bears with support at the 38.2% fibo of .7270-.7680 at .7523. On the other hand, gains above .7680 favor a continuation of strength towards the 5/17 high at .7725. Recent COT positioning reports favor the downside as the public is overwhelmingly long AUD.
f.xc.m

Perth PM 12:18 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Sofia. and everyone, I wish I could understand how GBP/JPY works; most of the time it seems to be correlated with GBP(superposed on a weekly chart) and sometime with JPY...and at time it seems to be leading one or the other....as for the indicators, RSI or STO oversold or overbought don't mean much....a real beast that one !

Syd 12:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
BOJ seen keeping powder dry after historic rate riseLINK

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:11 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM //
good briefing - do you have any idea what is behind this steep GBPJPY advance - it looks very "one-way"...
maybe some M&A activity - because as I see it GBP is not sold enough as the JPY is strongly bid - just observing the 5min chart... maybe all this is pure crap...

Lahore FM 11:54 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:48 GMT August 7, 2006
Kaprikorn,Fed may raise rates as well,keeping in line with the global cb hiking campaign.certainly there has beena case against hike but there are indicators such as PCE and wage pressures and core prices that may well make a very plausible reason for anotherhike by the fed.some of the action due to such an expectation being built into prices is presently being observed in UsdJpy,others are about to follow.all this IMVHO.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:48 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I read today an editorial in The Economist "The perils of pausing" - it finishes:
... After 17 rises in a row, Mr. Bernanke may be tempted to call for a time-out. It is a temptation he should resist.

Lahore FM 11:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
small long UsdCad 1.1250,no stops for now.

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 11:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
August 7, 2006 -- With a further rate hike at tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting seemingly out of the question, investors will instead scrutinize Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments for clues about whether the two-year campaign of interest-rate rises is finally at a close.

Bernanke sent shares soaring on...

http://www.nypost.com/business/business.htm

Perth PM 11:09 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Mla Evan 11:04 GMT August 7, 2006 . I don't think so....but I wish I knew !Gt GL

Auckland trotter 11:09 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Generally agree with “Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT August 7, 2006�, the general pressure of the EUR/USD is up, as well as looking at the price channel on the 1hr 30day chart. I have just been looking at quick profit on where the possible bottom price is.

Hopefully I have learnt something about a major fault in my trading, which is entering a position too early.

At the moment on the 5min 12hr chart - break the 1.2865 level and the 1.2875.

If the price breaks the 1.2875 level I will place more buys.

We shall see.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Perth PM 11:00 GMT //
tnx for the info!
I will hold to my shorts from 218.87 and 219.07

Mla Evan 11:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
PM, do you think 219.30(+-) would hold?

madrid mm 11:02 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
fwiw, I believe that until the FOMC annuncement is over, this usd/jpy 115ish lvl will hold....
And again , expect the unexpected !!!
8-)

Perth PM 11:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
GBP/JPY. 08/1998 hi 241.00- 09/2000 lo 149.00 - Fibo 0.764= 219.30(-+)

madrid mm 11:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:53 GMT August 7, 2006

indeed !

I was just commenting on the last trade !!!!

8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:58 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM //
nicely said! regards

Lahore FM 10:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
yes mm,it does but with a qualifier that original analysis on which a trade is based has some value to it else it would be patience for the wrong reasons.gtgl.

madrid mm 10:48 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:26 GMT August 7, 2006

patience pays off, lahore !!!!
8-)

Auckland trotter 10:30 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Taking quick pips on the EUR/USD from RSI (5) 5min 12hr chart until see a definite move in the price.

UK Alex 10:29 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
[Dow Jones] The GBP's TWI index has traded in a fairly narrow since 1998, with 104/105 as its ceiling. With the index now close to 103, the GBP probably has about 1% more upside before there is a risk of setback, says ABN Amro. "This argues for taking profit on GBP longs fairly soon, with EUR/GBP downside seen extending to 0.6700/10 and GBP/USD upside to 1.92-ish," the bank says. EUR/GBP now at 0.6747, and GBP/USD at 1.9066.

Gen dk 10:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 10:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:13 GMT August 7, 2006
usdjpy long from friday,target 115.70.

Lahore FM 13:06 GMT August 4, 2006
long 114.18 with 113,88 for stops.


Out of half long 114.18 at 114.90 for 72 pips.keeping rest for the target at 115.70

madrid mm 10:23 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
fwiw

-Futures based traders appear to be predominating, suggesting that the 'big boys' are sitting back ahead of tomorrow's FOMC. -EUR/JPY demand is seen as at least part of the background to USD/JPY buying but once interbank stops are out of the way, we expect to see plenty of supply as levels over 115.00 are seen.

Auckland trotter 10:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Now have buy EUR/USD based on RSI (5) on the 1hr 5day chart. Watching other charts closely.

Could be some bounces, or a continuation of the up trend for the EUR/USD.

Gen dk 10:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 09:59 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
small long nzd 6230.

reload eur/jpy shorts 147.80-148

Auckland trotter 09:38 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I am looking at the price channel on the 1hr 30day EUR/USD chart as an indication for the pair.

The 5min 1day chart gives levels of 1.2885, 1.2875 and 1.2865. These levels have been dropping.

For now I see the EUR/USD heading towards the daily pivot of 1.2845.

Until the 1.2875 level is broken I don’t see a continuation of the up trend given on the 1hr 30 day chart.

madrid mm 09:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
BETS AGAINST ENERGY PRICES SINK FUND
Link
Description

Antwerp ML 09:27 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
good morning

Tip of the week - Sterling could come under pressure mid week
target - 1.89 this week

Dollar could surge after Fed decision
My bet - 1.2750 mid week

Good luck

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
anyone shorting GBPJPY?
I shorted it at 218.87 - I know it's risky to pick tops but assume as it is making tops on hourly and daily charts there is a good chance for retracement.... on the other way it is fairly possible it continues its advance...
any opinions will be highly appreciated!

madrid mm 09:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
* Bernanke May Have Waited Too Long to Jump Off Interest Rate `Escalator'

* Diamonds to Outpace Metals' Returns as Scarcity, Asia Sales Boost Prices

* Morgan Stanley Outpaces Goldman as China Stock Sales Surge to $28 Billion

* Siemens, GE Lead Stocks' Drop From Peak; Rates Dent Investor `Conviction'

* Yen May Double Year's Gains in August, History, Treasury Payments Suggest

* Milken Says China Economy Will Be No. 1, Stresses U.S.-Mexico Relationship
@ bloomberg.com

madrid mm 09:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
-USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY firmer on US money center banks, Europeans and Tokyo buying, helped by firmer NYMEX oil prices, after BP decision to shut Prudhoe Bay oil field, and the continued heavy fighting between Israel and Hizbollah.

-GBP/JPY remains firm at 7 year 10 months highs, having hit 218.59, its highest since Oct 1998 highs of 231.11. - almost 8 yr hi

Syd 08:48 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
JPY Jun leading index -27.3pts to 50pts - signs of a fresh expansion wane

hk ab 08:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
nt//can you update your execution on eur/gbp long and kiwi long?

OHIO Crazy 08:18 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Monday, August 7th (4:30 am New York Time) UK
it's June's Industrial Production, expected at 0.2%, and June's Manufacturing Production expected at 0.3%.
short or long GBP/USD is good to go

Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
euro is near the upper level of the range.
it is unavoidable to test 1,2975/80 during this week.
probably it will go bit over 1,30 with first test.
I wouldnt be suprised if euro going up to 1,35 during august but Im not betting on it. 1,30 enough for me.support today at 1,2830/35 first. really important one at 1,2775/80. if this last doesnt hold all the bullishness could be lost immideatelly.
buy on dips today and cash in later near the yearly highs.
good luck.

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 08:06 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:46 GMT August 7, 2006

A smart senorita wd say

madrid mm 08:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Asia Highlights - 7 August 2006

News Highlights

ECB Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, in interview with Italian paper Il Sole 24 on Sunday, says Eurozone interest rates are still "very accommodating" after Thursday's hike (to 3.00%) and more adjustments should be expected in coming months. Pace of adjustment will depend on economy. - Reuters.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says it is important to get a vote on Lebanon resolution in next day or so. - Reuters.

Iran says it will expand its atomic centrifuge programme whenever it needs, under UN inspection.

BP said on Sunday it was shutting down the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska, the biggest in the US, cutting oil production by 400,000 barrels per day indefinitely. This comes after discovery of severe corrosion and a tiny spill from a Prudhoe Bay oil transit line. Prudhoe Bay, pumps about 8% of U.S. domestic oil production . - Reuters

S+P says that a further spike in oil prices from a broader Middle East conflict would drag a slowing US economy into recession, easier than a year ago. If Iran cuts its oil exports, oil prices could spike above $100, and sending US economy into near recession.

Japan Foreign reserves hit another new record highs, rising to $871.938bln in July, up from $864.878bln in June.

Markets a touch thinner ahead of tom's Fed FOMC, where it will be a close call.

USD seen weighed after weak NFP, "twin" ECB+BoE hikes.

EUR/USD still holding above 1.2875-80 on back of EUR/JPY buying, but capped ahead of 1.2925/ 1.2950/ 1.3000 options after it hit 2-m highs of 1.2910 on Friday, after 1.2275-1.2875 and 1.2900 were negated.

USD/JPY firmer in thin Obon Summer holidays trade, as Japanese mega city banks bought for fixing set at 114.39, but running into some exporters offers then, as large Japanese mega-city banks dumped.

USD/JPY then rose again, hitting some stoploss above 114.50 to 114.57, on higher oil prices, after BP shuts it Prudhoe oil field - the largest in US. NYMEX crude oil rose $1.30 to $76.05, coupled with the fierce shelling and fighting in Israel and Lebanon.

Large Japanese, Tokyo and Europeans, funds bought, initially capped by US investment houses, but finally edging to day highs as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY bought as well.

USD/JPY still playing 114-115.50 range, with talks of good offers from Europeans, US houses capping 115.60-70, more offers b4 115.00.

GBP/USD remains firmer above key 1.90, but off Friday's 1 year 3 month highs of 1.9130, but interest to buy on dips, focus on IP data. GBP/CHF remains firm, with speculation of more M+A demand on the Swiss Re-Scottish Widows report.

Some focus on USD/CNY, which hit 7.9671, just 21 pips from its all time lows, on weak Greenback and CNY speculation.

AUD quiet on partial holiday, still capped ahead of 0.77 handle options, while AUD/NZD a touch lower. Swiss sold NZD.

Asian FX ranges: USD/JPY 114.15/114.56, EUR/USD 1.2870/1.2893, GBP/USD 1.9057/1.9085, USD/CHF 1.2205/1.2234, AUD/USD 0.7654/0.7669, NZD/USD 0.6255/0.6270.

madrid mm 07:55 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:46 GMT August 7, 2006

8-)

madrid mm 07:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Rio CV 07:49 GMT August 7, 2006

ty

Rio CV 07:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
madrid mm 07:43 GMT August 7, 2006
Sterling surges towards mythical $2 mark

See full article (free)here :

http://fullcoverage.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060804/bs_ft/fto080520060215453139

The Netherlands Purk 07:46 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Allways nice to see that nobody knows MM....

madrid mm 07:43 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Sterling surges towards mythical $2 mark

By Steve Johnson

ft.com

Sterling stole the headlines in the currency market this week, surging 1.7 per cent to a 16-month high in trade-weighted terms after a surprise UK rate rise.

Some even saw the pound as primed for an assault on the near-mythical $2 mark, a level last reached in September 1992 prior to the Black Wednesday debacle and the pound's ignominious exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Gen dk 07:40 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Shenzhen Laowen 07:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 16:12 GMT August 6, 2006 //

nt, this view is different from your view on August 3. May I share your view on Gold now? I am itching to sell at 650 for a test of 620~630 area with s/l of 8 bucks. gl and gt~

Bombay SAS 07:17 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Good Day All ......
Bombay SAS 16:49 GMT August 4, 2006
Long USD/CHF 1.2202 Stop at 1.2180 .... GL

Out Of this Position at 1.2230 for +28 pips

Bombay SAS 14:00 GMT August 4, 2006
Order Done to short GBP at 1.9095 .... GL

Out of this Position at 1.9050 for +45 Pips

GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 07:14 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
PLOL Herman. I dont teach because i dont know myself. Only listen to yourself, make a plan use good s/l and watch for patterns, use historical prices, and you can make one pip a day.... 100 possies is 100 per day, that makes a nice pension a month.

The Netherlands Purk 07:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Mr. Jay, could you please remove all these kind of people that suddenly come out of nowhere when someone wants help? I have the feeling that these are people wanting to take advantage as they appear to be advisors of the highest level. They dont use proper names or countries for that matter, and they polute this forum.
Thank you

Holland Herman 07:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:10 GMT August 7, 2006
Can ihave your email so that you can teach me forex Mr Purk?

The Netherlands Purk 07:10 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Karachi MK 06:59 GMT August 7, 2006

Than you dont need guidance yet...

ca 07:08 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Karachi MK 06:53 GMT August 7, 2006
plz ask to jay regarding my email


thnkx

Syd 07:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
New rate hike risks 'serious' damage
The British Chambers of Commerce has warned of "very serious" damage to the economy if interest rates are raised any higher, citing the sky-high levels of sterling and a continued slump in exports as a share of the global market.LINK

Karachi MK 06:59 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:56 GMT August 7, 2006
my plateform has a high of 14765 but i placed an early limit

The Netherlands Purk 06:56 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Karachi: you have ordered one, or did your platform made it to 14787. My high is like 14760...

Karachi MK 06:53 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Can anyone guide me eru/jyp trade i have placed short eru/jyp at 147.87

Alaska Moon 06:37 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
PARIS bb 06:34 GMT August 7, 2006

=====
Everyone should read the forum rules... No email address allowed on this forum...

Toronto MRC 06:36 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060807/D8JBAG9G0.html

I'm off for the last two weeks. But this could be nasty. Not tradeding yet but, this time could get more interesting. Low on crude 72, target 85. GN GL HLP(serious polish girlfriend)hlp

PARIS bb 06:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
SAM.
Yes my e-mail address is sparanto@hotmail.com

Thanks

Alaska Moon 06:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
SAM 06:26 GMT August 7, 2006
=======
Where is SAM located ??

SAM 06:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Paris bb 06:19 GMT August 7, 2006
...Can i have ur chat ID or E-mail id

Paris bb 06:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
OK got it. I did not know. Thank you.

The Netherlands Purk 06:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Eur/jpy: pattern for now clear: low in Asia, and going up in Europe all day. Let us see if it can brake the range of 70 pips. Depends on the crosses usd/jpy and the beast i guess. Good luck all...

USA Zeus 06:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Paris bb 06:19 GMT August 7, 2006

bb or Melbourne BS Whatever your name is the reason no answer is because it is not appropriate to discuss brokers here. It is against forum rules hence the "censored" on your first post. For broker info contact jay@global-view.com. :-)

Paris bb 06:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Is gee cee eye a good platform / broker, reliable and safe and honest? Just applying due diligence before I open an account...

austin mw 06:19 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
for those of u who enjoy a good read u should visit pimco.com and read Bill Gross commentary

Alaska Moon 06:17 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Paris bb 06:13 GMT August 7, 2006
=====
Heck.... You are alive, and I am alive !! LOL

USA Zeus 06:16 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Paris bb 06:13 GMT August 7, 2006
There is no one "live" in this forum. All the answers are computerized and pre-canned. Is the intention to deceive or entertain?
--------------------

What on earth are you talking about?

Domo Arigato
Mr. Roboto

Paris bb 06:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
There is no one "live" in this forum. All the answers are computerized and pre-canned. Is the intention to deceive or entertain?

Cyprus Smooth Swimming Frog 06:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Morning.
A smooth slow monday maybe.

Except Oil (Alsakan shortage) and "Iran has [just] supplied Hizballah with a battery of upgraded Zelzal missiles that can reach Israel's nuclear reactor in Dimona."
News Item, Debka website (4 August 2006)

Have a nice day.

madrid mm 06:10 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
``The yen has been the analysts' graveyard,'' said Ryan Shea, a strategist in London at State Street Global Markets, a unit of State Street Corp., the custodian for $1.5 trillion of assets for investors.
Bloomberg Link
Description

Melbourne BS 06:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
oops. Lets try again... What has been your experience at gee cee eye? good bad? any comments? would you recommend it? I am trying to decide if I want to open an account there or not. Thanks

USA Zeus 06:06 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Houston te 06:03 GMT August 7, 2006

Probably nothing. In fact if they do my guess is the market will feel like they did so just for that purpose- to insure that they have gone too far. Especially given the NFP and homebuilder data. Either way- 1/8 or pause, the decision should send sparks IMHO. GT :-)

Melbourne BS 06:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
What has been your experience at censored? good bad? any comments? would you recommend it? I am trying to decide if I want to open an account there or not. Thanks

Houston te 06:03 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
A thought: What's to stop the FED from raising rates by 1/8% for insurance instead of a pause?

madrid mm 06:01 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Oil is in the news

BP to Shut Down U.S.'s Largest Oil Field; Prices Jump (Update4)
Oil prices rose as much as 1.7 percent

madrid mm 06:00 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
hello fx JEDI

Yen May Double Year's Gains in August, History Shows (Update1)
The yen

las vegas DJS 05:48 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:36 GMT August 7, 2006

No just thought I woould take a stabe at the JPN Sun. 08/06 10:00pm JPN Leading Economic Index 50.0% 77.3% but nothing there infact the upward trend on the 1,2,4 hr took over the quick short. I am long this tonight and will check the position when I wake up.

Good S/D

USA Zeus 05:45 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:43 GMT August 7, 2006
oopsie-
perrenial = perennial

USA Zeus 05:43 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
austin mw 05:32 GMT August 7, 2006

IF I had to guess I'd agree with you about the language for future determination being data driven etc. which may make the market even more nervous- signals that the fed won't know what to do going forward until it is too late- especially if they overshot it (common tendency). As much as the market doesn't like uncertainty, having a fed that is uncertain coupled with possible commodity price shocks, data turning the tide in between meetings and the remaining global political heat just seems like if that happens in different combinations at different times it could end up being a perfect storm of greater market volatility. And BTW- I'm not one of the perrenial gloom and doomers here. I try to be rational. But, I'm also just a student of markets. GL GT

USA Zeus 05:36 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Houston te 05:26 GMT August 7, 2006
te- Thanks. This may get very interesting as the US opens re crude and the Alaska situation. GT :-)


Las Vegas DJS 05:26 GMT August 7, 2006
Hi DJS. Any exciting possies? G Std Dev's :-)

austin mw 05:32 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I think you are right Zeus. I do think the fed will pause but the statement will remain the same as in the past.. monthly data will be the guide to future hikes

USA Zeus 05:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I think the market will be cautious to take massive action ahead of what will probably be a legendary day on Tue after the FOMC announcement. Could spark the beginning of a very volatile market into the end of the year. Let's hope. :-)

Houston te 05:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USDCAD: Prefer to sell upticks as this pair appears to be in a Downtrend

Las Vegas DJS 05:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Traded the JPN news and not much there if any at all. I am favoring $$$/Yen long with an outlook of 1/2 or more retrace from the NFP.

Good Std Dev's

USA Zeus 05:23 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
mi - yw. Looks like the dealers are setting up the EUR open for some chop chop action. Let's see what they bring...

moscow mi 05:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:49 - thanks for the tip Zeus. GT to you!

USA Zeus 05:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Any buyers of USD/CAD here @ 1.1237?

USA Zeus 05:05 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 03:21 GMT August 7, 2006
"..just a quick ATM trade for food and gas to start the week."

Mission accomplished. :-)

Mumbai NS 05:04 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Hi mrng all

usdjpy has made the near term lowest weekly close and is consolidating at the moment there culd be some dollar strenght on a very short term but i prefer to sell upticks close to 114.80-115.10 areas with stops abv 115.70 target initial 112.80 areas.

gl gt

USA Zeus 04:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
moscow mi 03:52 GMT August 7, 2006

mi - 147.54 might be a good place to start for a high risk "blade runner" possie GT

hk revdax 04:37 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Mla Evan 01:02 GMT //i have no position and i am not doing daytrade any more.

Lahore FM 04:13 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
usdjpy long from friday,target 115.70.

USA Zeus 04:12 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
moscow mi 03:52 GMT August 7, 2006

Hi MI. Just fading the blade more and more- LOL. I see what you are referencing with EUR/JPY. GL GT!

moscow mi 03:52 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:58 GMT August 7, 2006
Zeus, i have same attitude on GBPJPY this early europe morning. Uptrend went out of power.

USA Zeus 03:21 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
analyst- thanks...just a quick ATM trade for food and gas to start the week. :-)

sanfrancisco analyst 03:15 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Zeus - Good luck on it, I'm just peeking tonight. Catch you tomorrow.

Philadelphia Caba 03:07 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
GBP/USD: More Good News As GBP-Positive M&A Talk Emerges
The GBP has benefited from a flow of GBP-positive news in the past week and the weekend press is full of reports indicating that a large GBP-positive M&A deal might be in the works. Various reports indicate that the world"s largest
reinsurer, Swiss Re, has made moves towards a bid for Scottish Widows, the insurance arm of Lloyds TSB, which is valued at around 7 BLN GBP. ifr.

USA Zeus 02:58 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Good day all.
Alright analyst here goes-

**ST Scalp**

Shorted USD/JPY 114.42. Will add exponentially if moves higher.

sanfrancisco analyst 02:49 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Urge caution on taking UsdJpy. Market could prove me wrong but see overall risk is to the downside, scalpers could easily get caught in a net if holding on too long. Will there be buying? Already has been. Will there be more? Sure. Matter of the overall bias remaining short thats all.

Alaska Moon 02:34 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
I have no idea how it done that to me !!!LOL

Alaska Moon 02:33 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Deerfield r 02:26 GMT August 7, 2006
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The North Slope pipeline is not shut in...Just one of the fields...Pipline running at reduced rate..
Moon

Deerfield r 02:26 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska Pipeline news @ Google and Bloomberg

Deerfield r 02:24 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Alaska north slope pipeline shut--8% of US output down

sanfrancisco analyst 01:54 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
GbpUsd - Must see price trade below 9050 and stick for r/r to increase on shorts, overall trend can stay bid if 8950 holds.

Mla Evan 01:02 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
hk revdax 14:30 GMT August 6, 2006
Revdax, are you still short? What's your target or time frame target?

Montreal dm 00:40 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
LA LA , I thought the usd would be a little stronger against Eur to start off. I now think the eur/usd will drop down 1-200 pips, then rise above to the 1.29-30 mark. I actually believe we may see a minor downtrend that will last quite a while before soaring back up.

USA Zeus 00:29 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
LA LA 00:20 GMT August 7, 2006

No. Not really

NYC 00:23 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Retail Report May Show Consumers Upbeat: U.S. Economy Preview

NYC 00:22 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Yen May Double This Year's Gains in August, History Suggests

LA LA 00:20 GMT August 7, 2006 Reply   
Is anyone surprised the usd is not lower to start this week off?