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Forex Forum Archive for 01/05/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Gen dk 22:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Zurich 20:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Mik,

Mind explaining how or what analysis led you to the targets of the chf pairs for 2007. thanks

Haifa ac 20:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Iran denies death of Khanenei

RIC fxq 20:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 18:31 GM

on my platform -18.25 at the lows, currently 607.85 - 13.90.

-24+ from the intraday highs however.

Sofia mik 20:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 20:06 GMT January 3, 2007
Viena, my view -1,14
gl,gt

Sofia mik 20:04 GMT January 3, 2007
BA 19:41 GMT January 3, 2007


Sofia mik 18:08 GMT December 29, 2006
Happy New Year to all Traders.
07-big surprise -greenbuckyear .



GL/GT


Sofia mik 18:24 GMT December 29, 2006
GVI -Happy New Year !

Sofia mik 18:08 GMT December 29, 2006
Happy New Year to all Traders.
07-big surprise -greenbuckyear .


sofia mik 18:57 GMT December 27, 2006
p.s usdchf 1.38

Sofia mik 18:55 GMT December 27, 2006
PAR TK 18:37 GMT December 27, 2006

eurchf 1,66; gbpchf 2.53/55
GL/GT


Sofia mik 19:13 GMT December 22, 2006
sofia mik 07:04 GMT December 5, 2006
Morning Europa,
short eurusd 3337 targ. open
nice trading day all!


Hapy w/nd all!

Zurich 19:33 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dallas the Paw,

Amen to that.

Dallas The Paw 19:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
good riddance to that piece of trash.....if true anyway.

NY R19 18:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Market Rumor //// US equity alert service/wire reporting market rumor that in the past 24 hours that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, has died - Fly on the Wall.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
It is good to see quality post in the FF on a bloody Friday (clean the table Friday). This is surely the thing that will attract other quality post. I always say I rather have quality over quantity any time. Short term view eur/usd pair has broken the main support (3065-75) that now acts as main resistance fairly easily after the US data was released today. Tactics now have changed to selling on failed bounces until the main resistance is broken but the indicators are in the O/S area. Short-Mid term view plenty or room for the indicators on the downside with retracement numbers at 2925-30 and key support awaiting at 2910-15 for now. These support levels must be broken to confirm the bears existence IMHO. I hope everyone has a great and safe weekend. See you on the other side. Peace and GT

Zurich 18:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Just one more question. Could you please post the analysis for gbp/jpy, e/j and is gbp/chf still a buy. Thanks

Zurich 18:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks a lot for the execellent analysis. Really helpful to all of us. Appreciate it. Have a wonderful weekend and stock up on the protein diet. LOL.


To all see you guys next week and have a nice week end and fuel up.

The Netherlands Purk 18:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Well was not able to glue my face to the screen, saw 15477 once and thougt that 15421 did not print, but it did. Profit in the pocket. I saw a quick 70 pip bounce in the charts (yes i do read them now) but came quickly down again and maybe we will close at the target of 15421.... low in my platty is 15402, so 15380 not hit today.
Beware of sudden spikes up for shorters, because it will hit your s/l and vanishes your profit in a blink. Best thing to do is take 30-40 pips profit, or take more positions and take profit underway. Keep s/l tight and you will gain more than you lose, it took me a while to figure that one out....And of course i mean e/j.
Cheers all, have a nice weekend.

LKWD JJ 18:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GOOD W/E to all !! gl gt next week .

Houston CJ 18:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD Flag forming on hourly chart. If data next week is dollar positive look for this slide to continue at a rapid pace.


BUT, this could also be a great spot for a failed signal followed by a large up swing. Traders be ready for some action next week. Lots of data!

LKWD JJ 18:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
BLOOMBERG SHOWING GOLD -21 BUCKS ?

Houston CJ 18:29 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD CONTIUATION PATTERN

Syd 18:27 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/0b54db21ea0c8ce/bsccc010507.pdf

Melbourne Qindex 18:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 18:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : It is going to vibrate around [0.6731]* with an expected magnitude of 0.6695 - 0.6762.

Melbourne Qindex 18:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 17:51 GMT January 3, 2007
USD/CHF : Heading towards 1.2432* - 1.2448.

Melbourne Qindex 18:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is going to vibrate around [2.4026]* with an expected magnitude of 2.3846 - 2.4213.

Melbourne Qindex 18:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 18:11 GMT - All the best in the year 2007!

Spotforex NY 18:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q

You are the "post" master General!!!!

Glad to see your views!!!

Melbourne Qindex 18:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Projected supporting points are [1.6603]* and [1.6666]*.

Melbourne Qindex 18:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Projected support points are [1.6603]* and [1.6666]*.

Belgrade Bobby 18:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Happy New Year and everything else to all.
EURUSD failing to reach 1.35...very bad rejection at 1.3450 .Beware of support at 1.2920 and Major at 1.2710/50
Resistance now at 1.3130/55
Wish u all Great Trading Year and let the Force be with us all from Monday :)

Ciao

Melbourne Qindex 18:05 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:06 GMT January 3, 2007
EUR/CAD : 1.5502 is likely the cycle peak and 1.5464 is a projected resistant level. The market will reverse its movement and head for [1.5194]*. The current expected trading range for a position trader is [1.5194]* - [1.5640]*.

Melbourne Qindex 18:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is [1.1750]* - [1.1854]*.

Melbourne Qindex 17:56 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 17:52 GMT - Gold : The market is going to test the supporting barrier of 565.7 // 592.3.

Melbourne Qindex 17:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is [118.23]* - 119.10.

hong kong seek 17:52 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
DR QINDEX -- may i know your view on gold ? ths

Melbourne Qindex 17:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 17:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the current expected trading range is 1.6071 - 1.6155.

Melbourne Qindex 17:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:45 GMT January 5, 2007
AUD/USD : Heading towards 0.7669*.

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT January 5, 2007
AUD/USD : A barrier is located at 0.7759.

Melbourne Qindex 17:44 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:16 GMT January 5, 2007
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 1.9195

Melbourne Qindex 17:43 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT January 5, 2007
EUR/USD : Keep an eye on the level [1.3010]*.

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT January 5, 2007
EUR/USD : The market has a good potential to head for [1.2835]*

HK Kevin 17:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Closed earlier long Cable from 1.9290 at 1.9304

warsaw TOMi 17:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
to catt,

good call on gbp/yen at 00 ,appreciated..

warsaw TOMi 17:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
looking out for another nice dip in water before possible long.

warsaw TOMi 17:28 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
made 2 runs up and down on cable,keeping the horses dry for fresh blood.. neutral for now..

HK Kevin 17:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Agree, revised t/p to 20ma in the 15-min chart

Houston CJ 17:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
HK... IMHO.
I would not push 1.9330. I would look to t/p at 1.9320 - 25. Look at your 30 min chart. Much less risk for only 5 or so points. But I do like the trade.

NY RP 16:57 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:38 GMT January 5, 2007
Correct. Personally I believe this selling in Gold is over done. Most small players are wiped and allows this train to move forward. Still have a few weeks before it is official that the launch has started. Have great weekend.

warsaw TOMi 16:56 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
nyc 16:52 GMT January 5, 2007

time wil come soon, think must wait till next week..

cable good buy might be around 1.9150

Houston CJ 16:56 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Just closed out Short GBP at 1.9289 on rumors of BIS taking long position... not to mention traders in europe are probably closing up shop for the weekend. 145 points should help me enjoy the weekend. GL/GT to all.

HK Kevin 16:55 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
KHI MK 16:51 GMT, now. I just long small Cable at 1.9290 for intraday trade, t/p 1.9330, stop below today's low

Athens 16:53 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Thanks everyone. Have a good weekend all.

nyc 16:52 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
whens the time to buy euro ?or is it sliding to 127

KHI MK 16:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone help me where to long on GBP/$

Bratislava 16:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Adam, roger that. Thanks.

Athens 16:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Bratislava, yes, that meant 'oversold' and only fot today. A same level may not be O/S next week because O/S or O/B is also a function of time and not only of price.

ABHA FXS 16:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens 16:35 GMT January
YES,NEST TIME WILL DO IT ,THANKS

Bratislava 16:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens 15:37 GMT January 5, 2007

You are mentioning cable is O/S. Sorry for dumb question, but by O/S is meant oversold ?
Thanks.

HK Kevin 16:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
It seems the 1st trading week 2007 is the same as 2005. Closed half short EUR/JPY from 157.94 at 154.20. 2nd half short also got stop profit at 118.51.

Makassar Alimin 16:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 16:27 GMT January 5, 2007

wouldn't be surprised to hear lots of margin calls and accounts in trouble since no one expected this early surprise of the year, most expect usd to weaken further immediately after new year and gold to rally beyond 650...love it when market teaches us from time to time to expect the unexpected and be flexible, cheers and have a nice weekend

Athens 16:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS may I suggest when you refer to earlier postings/suggestions just refer to the time those where posted rather than repeating over and again the whole post. That way you will save valuable FF space and won't interrupt the flow with unduly long repetitions.

ABHA FXS 16:29 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 15:21 GMT
Understood and agreed. Thanks for your input

NY RP 16:27 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Blowout in Gold wiping weak longs out. What a day. Payrolls lit the fuse and blax boxes taking full action.

PAR 16:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
PPT and Pimco buying treasuries to stabilise the Us stock market. Have a nice weekend.

ABHA FXS 16:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 15:00 GMT January 5, 2007
UPDATE...
Trade Buy GBP/USD at 1.9286
Stop is 1.9239
Target is 1.9735
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 445 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 8.7
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent
This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave 1 of an upwards Wave 5 of the very large uptrend..
=====
Exit Trade Experiment at 1.9321 to collect 31 pips of profit. The reason for exiting here is because our wave analysis indicates that GBP/USD has just completed an upwards small wave 4 correction, and is going to descend again to make a new low.

LKWD JJ 16:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
another 100 pips to go for cable (19178)before any support to show up . 18888 maybe magnet (200ma).

manchester 16:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
been outdone by NZD/USD today but wanna go back in. anyone views on this pair as to the support resistance levels

LKWD JJ 16:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
as long as usdjpy stays above 11855 closing(20ma) it will keep 120-121 in the cards.

la oleg 16:02 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
thanks Athens, best of trades for the year ahead.

Athens 15:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
la oleg, very reasonable probability (the same can be said of all three european currencies). Of course, too early to claim that but not rarely the first week of the year marks a major top/bottom as historical evidence shows.

Makassar Alimin 15:53 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens 15:37 GMT January 5, 2007

agree very much athens, the rather easy break of 1.94 defense yesterday has indicated that temporary top is already in place for few months ahead, there is no hurry certainly in terms of long term player to buy cable at current price...so i agree with your view that it is likely we will see more downside than immediate return to upside, 1.94 area should cap any rallies ahead

GVI Jay 15:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CAtt (and others). Suggest you use standard terms (cut out the cablehyena reference) when referring to a currency pair. Keep it professional (as we have for nearly 10 years) and you will attract the type of experienced traders here that we all want to attract

la oleg 15:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens -- is it possible that cable has already put in it's high for the year?

to catt 15:44 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi

there s buy on 1hr cablehyena
buy near 00
sorry athens , my fx slang

Athens 15:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
to catt 15:28 GMT, there is no such pair called cablehyen. Cable meand only GBP/USD. You are seemingly referring to GBP/JPY or starling/yen if you prefer to call it. so.

Athens 15:37 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Re cable and as I noted earlier, yes, cable got a bit O/S today under 1.93 and, yes, it held a good support line that is coming in around 1.9265. However, per my techs, the probability for a future dive to the mid 1.90s is higher than a return to the mid 1.97's. Resistance around 1.9330, 1.9365 and 1.9385-95. Bottom line, as far as I can see it, selling rallies is preferable to buying dips Anyway good luck to those trading this pair.

warsaw TOMi 15:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
to catt,

haven't generated any buy signal yet,expected though..

gl/gt

to catt 15:28 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
longed cablehyena and cable

London Gooner 15:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 15:00 GMT January 5, 2007
-

Longed Cable too 9298.
Your wave count from 1.8517 has logic - may be I say that cos it matches mine, nevertheless -
If we bottom here though I think there will be chances to raise target for the 5th wave with thrust above 1.9850 -
So long as 1.9180 is not taken out I share the structural view you presented.
On the upside the turning point and increased bullish sentiment is at 1.9390/9410.

Makassar Alimin 15:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo AV 15:12 GMT January 5, 2007

yes, that's the ideal from our point of view, however a lot of people expecting the same bounce and go long, not sure if we can get that high if not making new low....Qindex's 1.90 still at the back of my mind....so will be interesting battle

warsaw TOMi 15:17 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
to catt,

willwait for another oppotunity soon..maybe try to get the target for 2008, heh

anything from you right now?

Gen dk 15:15 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

to catt 15:15 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi
so you retire?

Tokyo AV 15:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:46 GMT January 5, 2007

And at 1.9460 we have fibonacci. Hope it gets there to sell again.

warsaw TOMi 15:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
to catt 15:07 GMT January 5, 2007

finished with shorts for cable and €ur ftm,yearly %%%% target made for the whole2007..:-)

happy the man.

to catt 15:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
noone will drive the pound so high again , , look at the dayly , there s a sell signal generated

ABHA FXS 15:00 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
UPDATE...
Trade Buy GBP/USD at 1.9286
Stop is 1.9239
Target is 1.9735
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 445 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 8.7
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent
This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave 1 of an upwards Wave 5 of the very large uptrend..

Athens 14:53 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin, I think it was deleted by my anti-spam program. Coul you please send it agaimn putting as ref "TRENDWAYS"?

Plovidv Gotin 14:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens/I have send a mail about fx data. Cud you pls answer me.TIA.

Makassar Alimin 14:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
if there is any bounce, then cable should be sold again around 1.9430, what was once a good support now becomes a good resistance, still sell on rallies for weeks ahead...this is IF we do get a bounce

UK Alex 14:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
la oleg 14:39 GMT January 5, 2007
Yes, the tight labour market conditions and an improvement in consumer sentiment spurred on by the fall in energy prices could certainly mean more inflation is in the pipeline. The Fed has been right so far - I am paying close attention.

UK Alex 14:39 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:30 GMT January 5, 2007
I think the market is a bit ahead of itself if they think the BOJ is going to hike this month. The yen carry trade unwind was preciptated by the commodities sell-off.

la oleg 14:39 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
alex -- wage inflation is the real fear... fed policy has only negligible effect on commodity inflation anyway... the fed has been right on the economy, more right than anyone else, best to hear what they're saying.

manchester 14:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
battered by NZD/USD today

1.9249 is the next level of support for cable. I don't see that cracking, plus oversold indicators are on my chart. Good level to go long the pair imvho. Plus the NFP is notorious as a lagging indicator.

ABHA FXS 14:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 14:25 GMT January 5, 2007
**UPDATE**
Trade Buy GBP/USD at 1.9380
Stop is 1.9324
Target is 1.9635
Risk is 60 pips
Reward is 251 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.2
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

hk ab 14:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
exporters must be very excited to see this 119 prints again.....

UK Alex 14:27 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
la oleg 14:24 GMT January 5, 2007
Do you think inflation could pick up again?

ABHA FXS 14:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trade Buy GBP/USD at 1.9286
Stop is 1.9239
Target is 1.9735
Risk is 60 pips
Reward is 251 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.2
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

la oleg 14:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
the fed isn't cutting any time soon... looks like plenty of room left to further price that out... maybe the dude from uae will buy some euros when he gets back from hajj :))).

Gen dk 14:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ldn Jez 14:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA

Great GBP JPY call 228.65

Makassar Alimin 14:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
feel that this is not over yet, can see extension later on, watching usdjpy here, if stay above 119, then chances are it is going much higher this month

Athens 14:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm , always a pleasure if I can help.

UK Alex 14:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dollar Index runs into resistance at 50% Fib.

New Brighton gvm 14:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens.... as always thx for your informed comment

Makassar Alimin 14:16 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:09 GMT January 5, 2007

ab, i believe viies mentioned that if 1.3050 traded then his long euro plan will be aborted

Makassar Alimin 14:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
nice, 1.92 finally shows up for cable :) closed entire short position at 1.9298 for +315 pips

Gen dk 14:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens 14:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Perfect follow through price movements in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY price movements following Thursday's downside model breaks at 156.35 and 232.55 respectively.
EUR/$ has now almsot reached the old 2006 major high 1.2975 which also marks the current DHDL and may give a rebound. Cable has also nearly reached its key medium term support line coming in around 1.9265 and can also see a rebbound. $/CHF has become O/B above DHDL and may see a correction. If the pressure goes on it is not impossible to see in the conties levels such as 1.2925 and 1.2445 respectively but in O/S territory for the day. Habe a good weekend.

hk ab 14:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
viies, are you around to comment on eur? TIA.

Caribbean! Rafe... 13:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
euro next target is 12957-24 then 12832,12740,12648

Syd 13:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Eurodlrs See 80% Odds 5% 2Q Rate Vs Fully Priced Thurs
Eurodlrs See 36% Odds Of 4.75% 3Q Rate Vs 96% Odds Prior

hk ab 13:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
any euro buyers left??? CBs only?

Singapore fs 13:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:32 GMT January 5, 2007
Thanks Syd. U the best...

Syd 13:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Eurodlr Futures See 32% Odds 5% 1Q Rate Vs 44% Odds Prior

Malmo Bjorn 13:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
very heavy EUR longs taken @ 1.3007
stop @ 1.2940
target @ 1.3500

Syd 13:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
DJ US Nov Unemployment Left Unrevised At 4.5%
US Nov Payrolls Revised To +154K From +132K
US Dec Overall Workweek 0.0 Hour To 33.9 Hours
US Dec Manufacturing Payrolls -12K; Svc-Producing +178K
US Dec Average Hourly Earnings +$0.08 To $17.04
US Dec Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.5%
US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls +167K; Consensus +115K

hk ab 13:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
no one dares touch euro and yen...

Pecs Andras 13:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
+167k

Syd 13:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
*DJ US Dec Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.5%

manchester 13:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
any nerves before the numbers?

ABHA FXS 13:23 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trade Sell USD/CAD at 1.1760
Stop is 1.1861
Target is 1.1300
Risk is 101 pips
Reward is 460 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.0
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good


London 13:23 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Airport In N Spain Evacuated After Bomb Warning -Reports

RIC fxq 13:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
1309 GMT [Dow Jones] CME derivatives traders see a gain of 71,400 non-farm payrolls in December, after the last of four derivatives auctions ahead of this morning's monthly employment report. The auctions have produced lower projects each time, as the ADP private sector report released Wednesday showed a decline in payrolls. (HLP)

ABHA FXS 13:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trade Buy GBP/JPY at 228.65
Stop is 228.24
Target is 231.45
Risk is 49 pips
Reward is 271 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.5
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good


ldn Jez 13:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
in eur usd that is

ldn Jez 13:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
i agree historically we have got an average 125 pip move in first 20 mins after NFP

London Alan 12:53 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Given NFP history, I'll be shocked if EURUSD stays between 1.3059 and 1.3117.

ABHA FXS 12:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD is looking to target 1.3059 level at the moment and might rise towards 1.3117 level before that due to over-sold market.

Mostly traders will look to sell EURUSD around 1.3117 level for a nice intra-day trade as the currency is expected to stay in range between 1.3118 and 1.3057 today.

: Sell EURUSD 1.3117 for Profit Level 1.3059 and Stop Loss 1.3150....

teh 12:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
what happened last NFP, whas it dollar friendly?

Edi Geo 12:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
aye mate, exactly. Still not reading too much into this early year move yet but though 1.9340ish and 1.3030/00 area ( and hence following on the chf move ) might have to start taking it a bit more seriously

ldn Jez 12:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Geo
No I agree with the easy trade scenario and we have all been caught before with that. I just wish I had set sail on the doll at the begining of the week and I would be that fussed about NFP by now.

Makassar Alimin 12:17 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
tighten stop on cable short to 1.9475 and took some profit ahead of NFP release here at 1.9396, if lucky we might see 1.92 tonight otherwise there is a set up brewing for some bounce fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 12:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Edi Geo 12:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
of course Lee, my apologies, the memory not all it used to be now I'm old and senile!!!

London Gooner 12:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CAD jobs data came in very strong at +62K, rate down to 6.1% YoY

Melbourne Qindex 12:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

manchester 12:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
c, ive also got small longs from 6908 and also now at 6928. however, still got large long positions around 6980. boom or bust i guess

Edi Geo 12:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Jez

Undoubtedly..for all I would love to see that pattern continue and for the $ get a kicking, it just seems too much like the easy trade to me to be true. That said, I would look to sell $ breaking back above 1.9430 rather than trying to pick a base

Melbourne Qindex 12:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Ga Lee 12:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
from next door Geo...been awhile tho, always liked your analytical style..

Auckland peat 12:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
when caba sells the world listens ;+)

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 12:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 12:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Philadelphia Caba 12:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 11:54 GMT
thinking about add again at the same level .... let's see what happen today...gt/gl!

Edi Geo 12:02 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Sorry Lee...should I know you or was it just a general comment?

London C 12:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Cheers M ... went long here @ 25 with small lot.

Ga Lee 12:00 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
wb Geo...great to see you around :-)

ldn Jez 11:58 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Geo

Haha i'm good thx. looking forward to a lively session this p.m

manchester 11:56 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
c, its 13.30 GMT. this kiwi stalling again

Edi Geo 11:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Jez

Interesting..where u hear that? hahahhaha

how the devil are you?

hong kong nt 11:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 11:29 GMT January 5, 2007

I have limit sell level at 1.182...

Ga Lee 11:52 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
C..as found on the data calandar on this site..13:30 :-)

Gen dk 11:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London C 11:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
What time is NFP ...global calender on the blink!

ldn Jez 11:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys for your info. The last 4 yrs of Dec NFP release has shown an average of 80k under est from initial release.

Philadelphia Caba 11:29 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:53 GMT January 4, 2007
sold usd/cad at 1.1775, s/l above 1.1835, t/p 1.1650

sold it again, took off s/l for NFP, will closed manually at the end of today sess. if stay above 1.1800

hong kong nt 11:27 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB -- we may see some more downside to 60x, suggest to buy 2 portions 600 put at 2.0 or lower and long 1 portion spot at 60x. good trades...

CT Cris 11:06 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Montréal Taro 10:30 GMT January 5, 2007
====
cable may rise 30-40 pips after data then decline 70-80 pips for the rest of the session.

manchester 10:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
C, im looking for it to break 6967 and then push back upto 7070-7100 areas. all indications suggest weak NFP numbers

London C 10:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
manchester 09:28 GMT January 5, 2007 .....kiwi on its way up ..process of completing B wave ....before C up to ( 60 min bolly band)7000/25. well thats what it looks like from my seat.

CT Cris 10:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Montréal Taro 10:30 GMT January 5, 2007
CT Cris 08:42 GMT
What movement do you expect for nfp ? TIA

==========
will rise first then reverse down.

NY RP 10:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
I am hearing this move certainly is a carry trade liquidation. The Assian crisis, back in teh late 90's, Yen funded Asian EMK liquidation started Thai Baht. The outcome by default was that the Yen climbed by default as Japanese funds were repatriated.The only difference is volatility is lower than it was back in teh late 90's. Certainly anything can happen, but it sure looks alike. GL

Montréal Taro 10:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:42 GMT
What movement do you expect for nfp ? TIA

Auckland trotter 10:29 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Have taken profit on the EUR/USD.
The price has failed to break the daily pivot of 1.3112. Given the opening of the UK market.

Down pressure for now to around 1.3090. Possible pips - and then we shall see if the price continues up.


pd cumino 10:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 07:19 GMT January 5, 2007
Roughly the 2 std error channel limits from 11 Oct.

Auckland trotter 09:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Will watch RSI (5) on the 5min 12hr chart for the next buy.

NY R19 09:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Oil //// Guess $40-50 crude would not matter if polar ice caps melt in the next decade... st, trying to assess how much counter pressure USD would face if metals/oil rebound.

Ga Lee 09:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
re: winter weather...in like a lamb, out like a lion?

Auckland trotter 09:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
manchester 09:28 GMT January 5, 2007
“auckland, any views on kiwi/dollar from here? “

I only trade the EUR/USD at the moment. Used to play across the board, but at present trying to understand the market via a single currency.

I only post for comments and criticism - which are welcome.

NY R19 09:40 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Oil //// Just a stat anomoly: Temperatures in New York will rise to 64 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) today, 25 degrees above the normal high, the National Weather Service said. January is normally the coldest month in New York.

The Netherlands Purk 09:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 09:24 GMT January 5, 2007

Kevin, 15380 was the last bouncing point that is why have a look at it, and indeed lower than that can cause other points such as 15302...

Gen dk 09:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 09:28 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
auckland, any views on kiwi/dollar from here? i think 6966 is resistance level

Auckland trotter 09:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:14 GMT January 5, 2007
“Played the bounce since the EUR open. Buying on the dips and taking pips on offer with minor trades.”

Should say - In the direction of my major buy trade.

HK Kevin 09:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:12, 153.80 is also what I watch closely for EUR/JPY. Below that means a more deeper correction (5 more big figures) will be rolled out. Always remind me a multi-year bull trend won't reverse in one day.

Melbourne Qindex 09:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : 117.37 is the next target.

Auckland trotter 09:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
In regards to the EUR/USD:
I have the current fundamentals in favour of the EUR.
R1 on the daily pivot is 1.3149 which corresponds to the 50% fib on the 1hr 5day chart.
RSI (14) on 4hr 20day chart is over brought.
The price is coming up from SMA (100) on the 5min chart.

Played the bounce since the EUR open. Buying on the dips and taking pips on offer with minor trades.

We shall see with the open of the UK market.

Como Perrie 09:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
today's special...Oil unexpeted move on hedge funds chain long closings positions...the move might be really deep, but shd be this late US or opening

The Netherlands Purk 09:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 13:14 GMT December 29, 2006
Gold coast Martin 19:56 GMT December 19, 2006 PURKY..here is a "lesson" for you to learn from....lol... Gold coast Martin 19:13 GMT December 19, 2006 RIC fxq 19:03 GMT December 19, 2006 reminds of that Woody Allen movie where all the little sperms hear a tremble and rush for the exit, where there is one of them yelling out"stop, stop . its only a bl-w job"..lol...similar scenario...we get a small tremour and all the "sacrificial lambs" line up to be slaughetered....lol..Jay if this is too offensive please delete it...but i love Woody Allen...

Guess we never know if he meant that we had to buy or sell there....

WELL I GUESS HE MEANT DOWN....

Let us see if target of 15421 can be hit and than the last 15380. I expect some retrace there...

Gen dk 09:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 08:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
JPY has gained sharply over the last two trading sessions with EUR/JPY off 3 big figs, and USD/JPY 100 sen lower, despite the USD ramping up elsewhere. Overnight JPY gains have been attributed to BoJ finance minister Omi saying he wouldn't stand in the way of BoJ decisions, while ABN Amro says hints that a January BoJ rate hike would result in repatriation of funds led to JPY buying. Traders said in Asian trade earlier Friday that Japanese trust banks, securities houses and UK clearers were noted sellers of EUR/JPY, while others cited sliding commodity prices triggering a bail-out in long AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY positions.

CT Cris 08:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
cable buy now @19410 tp 19440-50

HK Kevin 08:38 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Closed half short USD/JPY from 119.48 at 118.22. A higher high formed in 4-hr chart.

Syd 08:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
UK Halifax Dec House Prices -1.0% On Mo, +9.9% On Yr

UK Halifax House Prices Were Forecast +0.2% MM, +10.2% YY

Syd 08:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
French consumer confidence slipped in December on growing worries over unemployment, according to figures released Friday by national statistics office Insee.

The latest numbers show Insee's consumer confidence index dropped to -26 in December from -25 in November. Economists had expected a reading of -25.

Melbourne Qindex 08:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As long as the market is trading above [1.2236} buy on dips is the preferred trading strategy.

Cannes Oil man 08:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
UK Dec house prices down -1% m/m , +9,9% y/y (halifax news).

hk ab 07:58 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
thanks million, nt.

hong kong nt 07:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB -- first range 560-605, then second range 605-650, think 200 dma and below is a buy, for today, expect 620-630 range...

Cannes Oil man 07:41 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Pop Above 1.3110 , and $ will start paying the bills.

Melbourne Qindex 07:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 228.17.

Melbourne Qindex 07:33 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : It is going to consolidate between 154.32 - 154.99 for the time being.

Melbourne Qindex 07:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : the next target is 91.89.

Cannes Oil man 07:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
My range system pointed out :

119.55 --115.08

I actually took the 119.55 , but tp(look gvi) , and ..thought it would come back for another short..Limit is still sleeping up there...Guess for awhile now.

Melbourne Qindex 07:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : Heading Towards 95.20

Melbourne Qindex 07:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : Heading towards 99.73.

hk ab 07:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you have any anticipated low for dlr/jpy before the BOJ decision next week? thanks million.

Cannes Oil man 07:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi looks fine here as a long close to the 6900 handle.

Cannes Oil man 07:05 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Don't be worried mr 20 identities:

Cannes Oil man 10:29 GMT January 4, 2007
Cannes Oil man 22:39 GMT January 2, 2007
We will see your entries , that is a certainty before 75.

During the week , on the jpy fix.
gl gt , off to rest.

----
NZD$ at 7090 when posted , to the virtual player with 20 identities , who claimed being long 6850..But he's short now with one of his identities from 7090 now..Life is simple on this side of the forum , make a new handle.


hk ab 06:57 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
nt, any view on kiwi and gold front?

Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
KHI MK 06:31 GMT - EUR/JPY : The normal weekly cycle lower limit is defined at 154.99, so we have to wait for the closing data from New Yorl session and my system will generate a new set of projections over the weekend.

manchester 06:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
nzd/usd levels? is this going to 6894 or are we gonna see a bounce? bit worried this pair alsways has a habit of going one way only once in a trend

KHI MK 06:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
Thanks for your help Also how far u think EUR/JYP can go down today & till next week

hong kong nt 06:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY -- mild downside bias, expect range 10-50 dma...

Cannes Oil man 06:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
BTW as no one posted this news(few mnts ago) :

JPY auto sales down 7.2% Y/Y .

The Netherlands Purk 06:07 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Ah, i dont know if it where the specs who did it, but levels were reached in one night already in e/j. Just as you think it will be only down you have to be carefull.... calculated new target but that was with a 15630 high, 15421. Than we have to see if this last 15380 will hold. Still a long way to go....

Melbourne Qindex 06:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
KHI MK 06:00 GMT - GBP/USD : it is better to long after the market can trade bove 1.9418. I have no idea about NFP, it is because I follow the price action only.

Cannes Oil man 06:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 05:18 GMT January 5, 2007

And rejoice, you weren't alone in being stopped on CAD :)

KHI MK 06:00 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
please help me with GBP/USD what level i should go long today & also what is ur exepcctation of US NFP thanks

Cannes Oil man 06:00 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 05:18 GMT January 5, 2007

Welcome.

Anyways , might not be a "meltdown" or unwinding (as it seems this is a touchy word) , however it's a big yen profit taking , coupled with a risk jpy hike in 10 days.
Today US and Euro session , should be both ultra nervous:

Profit taking , A trend (The US$ downside) about to be tested , Sovereign names and cb's looking for euro , and friday datas..

I still don't see any major reasons for the US$ to go up but for profit taking , so still have to be nimble in buying US$ , particularly on a friday.

When the E$ went from 1.24 to 1.33 (and gbp 1.84-1.97) , there was a reason pushing the commercial trades to do their buyings.

Now , trends do change , turn around , and new trend starts (or range) , however does look like the trigger for this trend change is lacking so far..

As for YEN itself , there could be yet a long way to go.
gl gt

Syd 05:28 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan PM Abe: Want To Make Japan Econ Strong

la oleg 05:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
some murmurs that iranian supreme leader ayatollah khamenei is dead.

HK Kevin 05:18 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man, thank you, What you said "a broad based reduction in carry trades" has already started.
Still keep short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
Short USD/CAD got stop out for 30 pips loss.

Melbourne Qindex 05:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:09 GMT - It is still valid.

hong kong nt 05:11 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AB -- let's be more patient for 50 dma...

USA BAY 05:09 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q,

The analysis that you gave on usd/chf a couple of days ago, is it still applicable, heading to 1.244 area. Thanks

Calcutta Vikram 04:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Sharp fall in Dollar-Yen and Euro-Yen today morning, as the market suddenly fears a rate hike at the 18-Jan BOJ meeting. Technically, there is some Support at 118.13 for Dollar-Yen, which is both the projected Max Low for the day, as well as an important Support on several time frames.

As such, we are wary of selling here. However, in case today's fall gathers further momentum, it could slice through the 118.13 Support easily enough, to target the 117.70-60 region.

Melbourne Qindex 04:51 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 04:47 GMT - It was great, I ate a lot. I miss those sea food lunch in Hong Kong Aberdeen Fish Market.

Dallas The Paw 04:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q/ I have another question for you??

How was lunch? lol Hope it was tasty with alot of protein to handle a busy day!

Zurich 04:44 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Thanks Dr Q. Sorry for too many questions. Your analysis are very accurate. Thanks again

Melbourne Qindex 04:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 04:36 GMT - Once the market hit the target we have to wait for some time to see hwat is next.

Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:33 GMT January 4, 2007
AUD/JPY : Heading Towards 92.45.

Zurich 04:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Could you please give us your analysis on AUD/JPY when you have the time pls. Appreciate in Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 04:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:31 GMT : It is possible in the New York session.

USA BAY 04:31 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
melbourne Qindex,

The gbp/usd target of 1.9195 is expected during the UK session?? Thanks and GT to you Dr.

Melbourne Qindex 04:26 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFX 04:24 GMT - We may see it in the New York session.

Melbourne Qindex 04:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 04:23 GMT - Gold is under pressure will head for 617.

Singapore GFX 04:24 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Dr Q, does that mean chances are gbp/jpy will see the 227 area by friday close?. thanks

hong kong seek 04:23 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:16 GMT January 5, 2007
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 1.9195

may i kindly know your view on gold ? many good trades to u

Melbourne Qindex 04:22 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 04:16 GMT : GBP/JPY : I assume the current movement is powered by major market makers and I just follow those numbers generated from major cycles. Today is Friday so I use my weekly cycle charts as reference. Once the market can penetrate through 228.92, the weekly cycle normal lower limit will be challenged. The level is 227.39.

Melbourne Qindex 04:16 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 1.9195

Dallas The Paw 04:16 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q, how low does your daily cycle see the gbp.jpy dipping? tia

Dallas The Paw 04:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
except yen is stregthening, which is a contra move, which is my point...

Sydney ACC 04:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:32 GMT January 5, 2007
From early february to mid-April USD/JPY spent all that time hitting its head on 119.00, fell to 110.40 in the space of one month.
Two hundred bp increase in interest rates could precipitate a fall of similar magnitude. I never thought the market would view an increase of that size.

Melbourne Qindex 04:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:02 GMT January 4, 2007
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through [1.9384]*.

Dallas The Paw 04:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
It's a little curious how it seems one currency gets singled out lately and beaten up. Swissy was last week, pound, euro and now yen. makes ya wonder a bit

hk ab 03:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
yen day.....

shanghai beyond_destiny 03:42 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Bought Euro@ 3085/308/3075/307

It seems bottom before release of No-farm. Does anyone have projected intraday R#s? TIA

Syd 03:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:17 GMT get the feeling market is being pushed down once we reach uncomfortable levels on PT across the board, Senior Currency Strategist at the Bank of New York calling for 200bpt hike by BOJ with an outside chance it will begin this month but may take until the beginning of the fiscal year April 1st depending on the inflation reports .

Sydney ACC 03:17 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:02 GMT January 5, 2007
Notwithstanding Kiwi has fallen nearly two big figures this week at 0.6910 it is still an other two higher than what it was at Thanksgiving. Any increase in Yen interest rates is unlikely to be to be a single move as Dresdner forecast we could see a 25 bp increase each quarter this year.
I see little chance of any significant rally and the distinct possibility of a return to November's levels likely next week.
What's your view?

hk ab 03:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
bc, do you see a 10 fig retreat from 158 is a gd enough lvl to reestablish new carry?

Syd 03:02 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
N.Z. Dollar Falls Against Yen on Outlook for Japanese Rates
New Zealand's dollar fell from a 13 month high against the yen on speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this quarter, sapping demand from Japanese investors for high yields in other countries.

Sales of so-called uridashi bonds denominated in New Zealand dollars and sold to individual Japanese investors reached NZ$1.3 billion ($910 million) in the past two months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aA4wUVxkne.I&refer=australia

shanghai bc 03:00 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   

Yen repatriation for the financial year starts in earnest from mid-January each year..Together with rate hike expectation,Yen carry trade may encounter some headwind from time to time..But its long-term,euro zone highe-rate and Yen zone almost zero-rate,upside potential is unliekly to change any time soon..Fwiw..

Syd 02:52 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan Finance Minister Koji Omi says he wants BOJ to continue supporting Japan economy with proper monetary policy, but he adds he won't interfere in BOJ's decision-making. Amid growing speculation BOJ will tighten credit in January, Tokyo trader says comments suggest Omi won't stand in way of hikes in near future. But since FX players have to some extent already factored in potential near-term rate hike, Omi's remarks may not have any impact on market, he adds

london C 02:10 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article136.html

pd cumino 02:08 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Singapore gfx 01:58 GMT January 5, 2007
This is a difficult answer. I traded 3 years on carry to risk and frwd carry to risk models. I reduced strongly the exposure recently, but the reason is risk, relative levels, too much crowded trades, and too much shared consensus, not particular changes.

Singapore gfx 01:58 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Pd Cumino,

based on what you said does that mean the jpy crosse has more room up and it is still not the time yet to sell the jpy pairs ex: gbp/jpy and others. thx

pd cumino 01:58 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:36 GMT January 5, 2007
In other times with AUD near 80 and so stretched positions you could find more equilibrated judgements. Now every pip is a carry unwinding.
BTW is mentioned only one type of JPY carry, the less important.

Toronto SC 01:56 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 01:49 GMT January 5, 2007

Thank you for taking the time to explain, much appreciated.

Dallas The Paw 01:55 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
sold aud/nzd 11297

Syd 01:52 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
BOA Keeps Call For Jan Bk Of Japan Rate Hike
Bank of America maintains call of 25bp overnight rate target hike from Bank of Japan in January "as economic and market conditions appear ripe"; says in addition to modest pickup in November core inflation and improvement in so-called core "core CPI", the November jobless rate drop below 4% threshold for wage growth (according to BOJ analysis) "was what the Bank had been waiting for". Adds, market environment appears ready for hike with firmer equities, weak JPY; "Even political pressure against a BOJ rate hike tends to ease when economic data are positive and equities are on the rise."

pd cumino 01:49 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Toronto SC 01:34 GMT January 5, 2007
Among other signs:
You must see signs in credit markets (expecially EMBI spreads)
You must see signs in aggregate fx volatilities. (G10 synthetic and overall emerging).
You must see volatility in swap spreads.
And you must see vol. in stocks. (VIX)

Carry trades are sensitive to vol. In few words are a search of yields made with more and more leverage just for the reason of low vol.

First two weeks of January are on average 20/30% more volatile than the rest of the year. BTW this year the jump is poor so far.

For what I see there are some profit taking, positiong adjustments. Majors and JPY crosses lost about the same, and so CHF. C/A deficit HY emerging currencies, the most sensitive, aren't shaken so far.

NY RP 01:41 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
In refernce to all the cahtter about carry trades, the only way we will know for sure is after the fact as this game has been expensive trying to time. One thing for sure is the Yen has been a funding currency and it sure is moving with strength across the board. One day does not make a trend but days like today can start one. We will have to wait and see. Interesting times in FX. This is what it is all about. GL

Syd 01:36 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 01:28 GMT Also just hearing that funds who are hold long metals copper etc are now paying 5% for the privilage since the view that the US wont be dropping rates anytime soon

London C 01:35 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
here are some charts I
I
I
I
<............

Toronto SC 01:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 01:28 GMT January 5, 2007

Could you explain carry trade unwinding elsewhere, thx

Syd 01:34 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 01:28 GMT to be perfectly honest , the reports I have been reading about the Aud and Kiwi rushing to new highs any minute it appears the market is extemely nervous and anything is possible as you well know.

Philadelphia Caba 01:32 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
82.17-27

OTTAWA mjw 01:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
could some one tell me were NZD/Yen is trading my chart is not working thanks

pd cumino 01:28 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:20 GMT January 5, 2007
There isn't any carry trade unwinding.
In these days everyone speak about that and they didn't speak when they had to do.
When there is a real unwinding of the 3 main carries you find the early sign elsewhere, and for now there aren't.

Zurich 01:25 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

So sell on rallies meaning, now is the time to short?? Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Zurich 01:19 GMT - Sell on rallies.

Syd 01:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Adrian Foster, director of currency sales at Dresdner Kleinwort
says BOJ to raise rates 25bp every quater 07

Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 01:14 GMT - Hi, YEN crosses are the center of focus today.

I will be back after lunch.

Syd 01:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: EUR/JPY Falls As Players Suspend Yen-Carry

EUR/JPY falls in Asia as non-Japan investors suspend yen-carry trades on expectations of a possible BOJ rate hike in January, says trader at major Tokyo bank; adds pair may keep falling as long as uncertainty over a BOJ hike remains strong.

Zurich 01:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex,

Is it to late to enter a short position for both gbp/jpy and eur/jpy now, or after the levels you indicated the pairs are heading north. thanks

FW CS 01:14 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Hi there Qindex
So if I am reading your comments corretly Euro/JPY tumble will also cause Euro/$ to dive? Makes sense since those Yen crosses are overdone on the upside.

NY R19 01:13 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
JPY //// NK wants is probably shorting JPY. JPY carry unwinding trumping NK news...

Syd 01:12 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
US Officials: N Korea Appears Ready For Nuclear Test - ABC
North Korea appears to have made preparations for another nuclear test, ABC News reported on its Web site Thursday, citing U.S. defense officials.

"We think they've put everything in place to conduct a test without any notice or warning," ABC quoted a senior U.S. defense official as saying.

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Keep an eye on the level [1.3010]*.

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market has a good potential to head for [1.2835]*

Toronto MRC 01:04 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Talk that North Korea ready for another test.

Melbourne Qindex 01:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : It is going to tackle 154.51*.

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:28 GMT January 4, 2007
GBP/USD : the market is going to consolidate between [1.9384]* - [1.9412]* for the time being.

Melbourne Qindex 00:57 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:31 GMT January 4, 2007
USD/JPY : Pulling towards [118.23]*

Syd 00:57 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
The financial markets have started to turn scary during the past few days and there are numerous signs of trouble - and various kinds of trouble as well. This includes weakness in the currency market, falling developed and emerging market equities, weak gold prices, weak copper and other commodities - and collapsing oil prices. These all appear to argue that expectations for global growth are being scaled back, but it is too soon to extrapolate this into a significant event in the financial markets. We in the currency markets are used to small storms blowing right through us, but very few of these turn into hurricanes. But it only takes one day when the major currencies fall significantly while the yen strengthened marginally to cause concern about a major shakeout of carry trades. This is a theme that has been reoccurring with disturbing regularity for the past seven months, but it has failed to materialize. Of course we all remember the dramatic bloodbath eight months ago. We believe this jolt will prove to be only another quick correction. The major reversal in carry trades in December of 2005 . It was a rally in the yen that led to a dumping of high interest rate currencies. The recent decline was been an across the board selling of currencies, and there is still a chance that it can end within a few days.
from uk trader amigo

Melbourne Qindex 00:54 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 00:48 GMT - Those numbers are from my monthly cycle. My website is hosting in Hong Kong and the internet service is still having problem, so can't show you any graphic presentation.

Melbourne Qindex 00:50 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Dallas The Paw 00:48 GMT - It will take 1 - 2 weeks. AUD/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if 0.7765 fails to hold.

Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:46 GMT January 4, 2007
EUR/JPY : Heading Towards 154.88.

Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:51 GMT January 4, 2007
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 229.43.

Dallas The Paw 00:48 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
kiwi and kangaroo are going to keep accelerating. it's a snowball and it's going to keep getting bigger for now.

Dr. Q, what's your timeframe for you aud/usd target? tia

Melbourne Qindex 00:47 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:54 GMT January 4, 2007
USD/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.59.

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : A barrier is located at 0.7759.

Syd 00:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
The best of the THB rally is past, says Morgan Stanley; after turning in 2006's best performance (+14.3%), THB will remain part of Asia FX advance given "decent" fundamentals but will no longer lead. Thailand's favorable macro backdrop fading, even with oncoming policy support; THB starting year moderately overvalued, and BOT has done a number on investor appetite for THB risk with "badly handled" attempts to curb THB speculation - "we fear that this will rob the THB of an important source of support in 2007, namely the uplift from portfolio inflows, at least for the first few months."

Melbourne Qindex 00:45 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Heading towards 0.7669*.

Melbourne Qindex 00:30 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Heading towards 1.1840.

Syd 00:21 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
link

Syd 00:20 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
Currency Volatility to Rise as Fed Lifts Rates, JPMorgan Says
Volatility in major currencies will increase in the second half of the year because the Federal Reserve will surprise most investors and lift interest rates, according to Tim Owens at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
A rate increase this year would run counter to the consensus view of Wall Street's 22 biggest bond-trading firms, known as primary dealers. The median forecast of those firms is for the central bank to cut its benchmark to maintain economic growth.

``Surprises in economic growth levels and monetary policy generally trigger higher currency volatility,'' said Owens, managing director of J.P. Morgan Chase Bank's currency and commodity solutions group in London

LINK

hk ab 00:19 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
where's the roof of e/j?....
Chinese buyers will absorb all gold and silver, relax.

manchester 00:17 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
im hedging my position, put short in at 6958 and another long order at 6905 witg a s/l 6880

London C 00:05 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
manchester ...6900 is the projected 38,2 retracement of 0.6575 - 0.7100 ...may head north after ... But have a look at your monthly charts ...a potential head and shoulders formation for a broader idea

Syd 00:03 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   
US Officials: N Korea Appears Ready For Nuclear Test - ABC
North Korea appears to have made preparations for another nuclear test, ABC News reported on its Web site Thursday, citing U.S. defense officials.

"We think they've put everything in place to conduct a test without any notice or warning," ABC quoted a senior U.S. defense official as saying.




Syd 00:01 GMT January 5, 2007 Reply   

USD/JPY a tad weaker in Asia, down around 118.88 vs 119.10 late in NY and may go as far as 118.60 on selling by U.S., Japan investors amid continued chatter BOJ could hike rates as soon as January, says trader at major Japan bank; Japan exporters also likely on sell side. But some short-term speculators may support before U.S. payrolls later

 


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