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Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2007
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san miniato ab 23:58 GMT January 28, 2007
japan dec retail sales - 0,3% y/y vs - 0,6% consensus, - 0,2% last
Hong Kong Qindex 23:55 GMT January 28, 2007
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 121.41 - 121.57 - 121.74 for the time being. Short term targeting points are 120.74 and 121.07.
N.B. Only selected items will be posted today.
USA BAY 23:18 GMT January 28, 2007
TP EUR/USD 1.2830??? Thanks
paris ds 23:14 GMT January 28, 2007
time: 12.10am (CET)
Trailling after 50pisp are 30 steps
Syd 23:13 GMT January 28, 2007
Aussie PM Talks Of Tough 2007 Election Economic management shaping up to be key issue in Australian federal election, due by end-2007. Election will be tough, PM Howard says on local radio; "I think the longer you're in office the harder it is to win the next election because people wrongly take economic stability for granted," says PM, who marked a decade in power last year. Reelection hopes of Howard's conservative government boosted by last week's fall in inflation, predictions more interest rate rises won't eventuate.
Cincinnati MHF 22:59 GMT January 28, 2007
I'm just getting started in Forex Trading. Anyone have recommendations for selecting a broker? Any horror stories of bad online brokers to stay away from?
Syd 22:37 GMT January 28, 2007
Italy Fin Min Flags Currency Chat For G7 More rumblings from Europe over JPY with Italian Economy, Finance Minister Padoa-Schioppa late Friday saying JPY will be on agenda at G7 meeting Feb. 9-10; "exchange rates are always on the agenda at G7 meetings, so I expect them to be on the agenda again.". But comments aren't particularly threatening; don't really change expectations that while JPY might be discussed on sidelines of Essen meeting, mention of yen weakness in meeting communique, let alone call for action to boost JPY, seems very unlikely.
Syd 22:07 GMT January 28, 2007
More AUD/USD Position Unwinding To Come-ANZ
Australian dollar remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar as interest rate differentials point to further AUD weakness, says Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank; decisive move lower in AUD/USD last week on the 4Q CPI result continues to keep pair under pressure. Although AUD/USD looks oversold on Friday's dip below support at 0.7760 the possibility of considerable unwinding in speculative long positions remains; major area of support at 0.7630 eyed as target for downside move.
madrid mm 19:22 GMT January 28, 2007
A money machine
Jan 25th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
The People's Bank of China is the world's most profitable bank
CHINA wants to boost the return that it earns on its $1 trillion-plus stash of foreign-exchange reserves. The prime minister, Wen Jiabao, said on January 20th that the country would explore new ways of investing the money, which is held mostly in liquid American government securities. But his statement was vague. It could simply imply broadening the composition of assets held by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to include higher yielding equities and commodities; or, more dramatically, part of the reserves could be transferred to a separate state investment agency which would maximise returns like a fund manager.
Even as things stand, the PBOC is earning a handsome profit. According to Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, it made a profit of $29 billion last yearâ€”more than any of the world's commercial banks.
madrid mm 18:59 GMT January 28, 2007
And if the wall should fall-Jan 28th 2007-From Economist.com
Irrational exuberance may test the Fed yet again
READ any discussion about the outlook for financial markets, and it wonâ€™t be long before you come across the concept of excess liquidity, and the proposition that a â€śwall of moneyâ€ť has been shoring up asset prices.
Not everyone takes this view. Albert Edwards, a contrarian strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, dismisses the excess-liquidity argument as â€ślies, rhubarb, poppycock, bilge and utter nonsenseâ€ť.
Which is to say, he disagrees with it. He says most people get the causation the wrong way round. It is not credit creation that leads to higher asset prices. It is rising asset prices that lead to faster credit growth as investors borrow against their apparent wealth and speculate on future price movements. And, he points out, liquidity did nothing to prevent a recent slide in copper prices. When speculators think an asset has topped out, they quickly retreat.
Of course, that still leaves unanswered the question of whether investors have been seduced into a state of â€śirrational exuberanceâ€ť. Some say that, with share prices in America and Europe at historically average ratings, there is no sign of speculative excess. But that is a bit hard to square with what has been going on in high-yield bonds, or in emerging markets. A look at the back page of The Economist shows that stockmarkets in no fewer than 16 developing countries have achieved gains of more than 25%, in dollar terms, since the start of 2005â€•including China's, where returns have been around 150%.
If there is excess liquidity, where is it coming from? Broadly speaking, there are four potential culprits. Some blame the leading central banks for running too-loose monetary policies, although that argument is hard to sustain given the substantial interest rate increases imposed by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Another possibility is the corporate sector, which is returning cash to investors via share buy-backs and takeovers, rather than using record profits to indulge in a spree of capital investment.
The other two contenders are Asian central banks, and oil-exporting nations. An Asian â€śsavings glutâ€ť can be used to explain both the low level of government-bond yields, and the high American current account deficit. The idea is that Asians are keen to avoid repeating their debt problems of the 1990s, and to maintain stable exchange rates for their currencies against the dollar. This encourages them to run current account surpluses, and makes them willing buyers of Treasury bonds.
This strategy keeps government-bond yields low and so underpins other asset markets, allowing investors to borrow at a low â€śrisk-freeâ€ť rate and invest in higher-yielding assets.
Thanks to what was (until recently) a soaring crude price, oil exporters have overtaken even Asia as providers of global savings. Some argue that, because investors here have more adventurous habits than the Asian central banks do, this is a better explanation of why risky assets have done so well. It also helps explain why financial markets were so resilient in the face of higher oil prices in 2006.
Clarium Capital, a hedge fund, finds a pleasing analogy. Suppose the American government had imposed a tax on petrol, but invested the proceeds in the S&P 500 index. The tax might have hit consumer demand, but the stockmarket would probably have done very well.
How will events pan out in 2007? It seems likely that some kind of trigger would be needed to upset the markets seriously, whether by disrupting capital flows from Asia or OPEC or by crushing what Keynes called the â€śanimal spiritsâ€ť of speculators. One possible culprit would be geopolitics, perhaps an escalation of the war of words between America and Iran; or an outbreak of protectionism in Congress.
The sell-off in May and June 2006 could be seen as a dress rehearsal for such a correction, involving a sharp decline in emerging markets. That correction came to a fairly abrupt halt when it became clear that American interest rates had peaked. And most bulls are counting on the Fed to rise to the rescue this year too, if the markets show any sign of faltering.
The Fed has performed rescue acts many times in the pastâ€•but it stood back in 2000, when the technology boom imploded. If it has to make another such decision in the near future, it will probably be asking itself first and foremost about inflationary pressures, and whether these are containable. So if you want to know how markets will fare in 2007, here is one suggestion: keep both eyes on American inflation data for clues to the policy context.
GVI john 13:13 GMT January 28, 2007
Mon, Jan 29, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec Retail Sales
10:00 UK- Jan- CBI Ditributive Trades
Tues, Jan 30, 2007
23:30 JA- Dec Employment
23:50 JA- Dec IP (prelim)
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
13:30 CA- Dec IPPI
US- FOMC day 1
15:00 US- Jan Cons Confidence (see 110.0 vs. 109.0 in December)
Wed, Jan 31, 2007
07:00 GE- Dec Retail Sales
08:55 GE- Dec unemployment
10:00 EZ- Cons /Bus Conf
10:00 EZ- Jan HICP (flash)
10:00 EZ- Dec unemployment
10:30 UK- Jan GfK Survey
13:15 US- Jan ADP employment
13:30 US- 4Q06 GDP (see +3.0% vs. +2.0% in 3Q06)
13:30 CA- Nov GDP
15:00 US- Jan Chicago PMI (see 52.0 vs. 51.6 in December)
15:00 US- Dec Construction Spending (see 0.0% vs. -0.2% in November)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy
19:15 US- FOMC day 2
Thu, Feb 1, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec Monetary Base
07:15 CH- Dec Trade
09:00 EZ/GE/UK- Jan Mfg PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 315,000 vs. 325,000)
13:30 US- Dec PI, PCE, Core PCE Deflator (see +0.7% vs. +0.5%, +0.5% vs. +0.3%, +0.2% vs. 0.5%)
15:00 US- Jan ISM PMI (see 51.8 vs.51.4 in December)
15:00 US- Dec Pending Home Sales (see +0.8% vs. -0.5% in November)
15:30 US- Natural Gas
Fri, Feb 2, 2007
00:30 AU- Dec Trade
10:00 EZ- Dec PPI
13:30 US- Jan employment (Jobs see +145,000 vs. 167,000 in December)
15:00 US- Dec Factory Orders (see +1.8% vs. +0.9% in November
15:00 US- Final Jan Univ of Mich Sentiment (see 97.7 vs. prelim 98.0)
Cbj Jake 07:34 GMT January 28, 2007
Quito - Well said. If Israel uses atomic weapons all gloves are off - in every way! The Lebanese war showed the world the Israeli genererals were just out of control - with the political leadership basicly ignorant, even of statecraft. The "wink-wink" US donations of antipersonnel bombs, outrageously and gratuitously destructive in the last days of the war, their repeated sheilling of UN observation posts,even after repeated warnings by the UN, belie a cynacism that does not seem to even have moral bounds.
They have lost a lot of good will, even though there credibility has not been held in high esteem for quite some time.
If they go without the nod of the UN even with conventtional weapons, there will be unscripted effects. I love the NYTimes but I will not be reading it for the necessary uncensored version of events.
I notice that for the first time people are waking up to the fact that Starbuck's coffee is of very poor quality. It has been going down for years. Yesterday they had "House Blend"
and "New England Blend". Blend of what? and "Do I really believe them?" They have such a well oiled PR machine. Both blends were terrible and there burners have not been hot for
ages! So Quito, perhaps you have something to show them!
quito_ecuador_valdez 02:00 GMT January 28, 2007
Well, we wondered when it would happen....the USA's economy in -some- venues is seriously reflecting a peak and following decline. Reading my headlines today: "Number of foreclosures in metro Detroit skyrockets". In some places in Michigan 1 house in 49 is forclosing. That doesn't count renegociated loans with the lenders. 7.1% unemployment (2nd highest in ALL states) in Mich also is weighing although not as bad as Missippi, the highest. Other parts of USA are in fact growing so we can't say the entire USA econ is suffering, it isn't. The most expensive house in the world is being built in Montana in fact...$134 Mln worth which trumps Trump's in Fla in the $120Mln zone.
Iran says going ahead with 3,000 centrifuges now that it's got the process down pat to separate uranium isotopes to start the reactor purring. I guess Israel or UN or USA is waiting til they get them all going THEN destroy the facility once all that capital and bustle is spent...costing Iran in the end much more than if the facilities were bombed now.
My main worry & FX pertinent: "low yield nuclear ordinance" noise Israel's military leaked re: weapons of choice to take out Iran's nuke projects. If Israel pops a few nukes that opens the world wide nuke bomb bays for any fool to do the same. To me that's more worrysome than Iran's centrifuges. I hope Israel uses conventional ordinance instead of nuke if no settlement can be obtained using diplomacy/santions. It appears Iran's Ayatolla(s) and others are pretty fed up with el presidente's big mouth and hardline stance...he could be fired and a new negotiating team tagged into the ring. Hoping this happens.
FX wise if Iran gets hit, and likely they will, then USA will probably be involved somehow (2 carrier battle groups already in position in Gulf to hit Iran) and if so I see that as USD neg in light of retaliation hits to USA interests or even USA soil via terrorists. I dunno how much more time is involved in Iran's setting up all those 3000 centrifuges but at the time it goes on line is the time I'd scoot out of USD and into safehouse stuff.
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
No Major Data
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits
John M. Bland, MBA
- No matter what you call it, the ECB announced a "taper" of its asset purchases to EUR 60b per mo from EUR80b starting in April 2017. Even though President Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but it generated a "taper tantrum" in EURUSD. I warned Thursday would be a volatile day, but it exceeded my expectations.
- The calendar is light today. Better than expected U.K. trade data has been a market-mover for the GBP. University of Michigan preliminary Sentiment data for December are due later. A positive "Trump Effect" would not surprise.
- We remain confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps next Wednesday. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.
- The U.S. Presidential vote recount continues. Odds for a reversal of the Trump victory are slim.
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets.
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