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Forex Forum Archive for 01/29/2008

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Syd 23:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
If FOMC cuts by only 25 bps, stock prices, USD/JPY may fall largely due to disappointment,, the dollar may fall below Y104.96 (marked last week).House predicts a 50bp cut
JPMorgan Chase Bank

Syd 23:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD will find it hard to develop significant upward momentum in current risk-averse environment, says Jo Masters, strategist at Macquarie Bank; "we see more risk aversion than risk appetite in coming months as U.S. data continue to soften and the world remains on red alert for signs of slowing elsewhere in the world economy." Near term, Fed decision and payrolls outcome will set the tone; market to remain volatile until payrolls out. Masters doubts Fed cut will be panacea to market's woes.
Macquarie Bank

Gen dk 23:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:29 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
The Baltic Dry Index shows that shipping rates have fallen to their lowest level since June of last year and this is a forward-looking index that leads global economic growth.

Syd 23:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Mizuho Financial Group Subprime Losses May Top Y200B -Report
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Losses from U.S. subprime loan-related assets for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO) are now expected to top Y200 billion, much bigger than the earlier forecast for around Y170 billion, reports the Yomiuri Shimbun in its Wednesday morning edition.

There is a chance these losses, mostly held by brokerage unit Mizuho Securities Co., could even top Y250 billion, the report says.

Late last year Mizuho Securities issued new shares to raise Y150 billion needed to cover its subprime loan losses.

Mizuho Financial Group is now considering taking the unusual step of allowing for another such share offer to help maintain the brokerage's financial health, the report says.


Syd 23:12 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Dipping Lower On Chinese Selling - TD

Syd 23:09 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Strain shows as China buckles under harsh winter
BEIJING : Premier Wen Jiabao rushed on Tuesday to oversee disaster relief as China buckled under its harshest winter for half a century, which has affected tens of millions of people and paralysed many areas.
A total of 77.9 million people have been affected by the weather which has covered a swathe of China stretching from Xinjiang in the northwest to Fujian in the southeast, various state newspapers reported AFP

Syd 23:04 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
WASHINGTON : The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its 2008 global growth outlook, citing a US slowdown and financial market turmoil that have put emerging economies at risk.

The global economy is poised to grow 4.1 percent this year, down 0.3 percentage points from a previous estimate, the IMF report said.
In China, growth was forecast to ease to 10 percent this year from an estimated 11.4 percent to 10 percent, "which should help alleviate overheating concerns," the Fund said.

The IMF warned that emerging market economies face elevated risks in the financial turmoil. AFP


Syd 22:55 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Aioi Insurance To Book Y50 Billion In Subprime Loan Losses
(Dow Jones)--Losses from U.S. subprime loan-related assets for Aioi Insurance Co. (8761.TO) have swelled to around Y50 billion, roughly twice the amount the company estimated in late September, reports the Mainichi Shimbun in its Wednesday morning edition.

Japan's No. 4 nonlife insurer plans to book the losses in its October-December quarter results due out next month, the report says.

Last fiscal year, the company posted a group net profit of Y27.2 billion and a net profit of Y16.2 billion, so subprime loan-related losses of around Y50 billion are expected to have a significant impact on its operations.



Syd 22:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Moment of agony for MFS investors
THE Gold Coast-based MFS Limited has temporarily shut down its largest unlisted investment vehicle, fuelling fears the $770 million fund, along with the rest of the troubled property group, could be in a death spiral.

Syd 22:43 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Margin lending broker runs out of money
THE solvency of the broking house Tricom may be in question after it was unable to cover the cost of trades yesterday, halting settlement on the Australian Securities Exchange for more than four hours
is believed the margin loan specialist took heavy losses last Tuesday when the worst sharemarket fall in 18 years caused a record number of margin calls.

A spokesman for the Australian Securities Exchange said settlement, which is when the money changes hands for trades already agreed, is scheduled to occur at 12.30pm every day. Tricom's inability to cover its trades meant settlement yesterday was stalled until 4.42pm. "Sufficient funds were not available for this participant to settle at the required time to meet the scheduled settlement arrangements," the spokesman said.
According to documents lodged with ASIC, Tricom's creditors include ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac along with investment banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Babcock & Brown, and fund managers BT Securities, Aspen Capital Partners and, as of June, Allco Principals Investments.


Syd 22:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NZ Housing Inflation Shows Rapid Cooling - UBS
NZ December residential building consents data show significant further weakness, especially in core number, and shows housing-sector inflation rapidly cooling, says UBS senior economist Robin Clements; says activity data, which include today's consents and other reports on sales, show cooling; also, house prices also making material downward drift. "The dwelling consents data is further proof...that this key factor in the inflation process is rapidly cooling." Says combination of global developments, slowing domestic economy should be sufficient to turn RBNZ's hawkish tone neutral by March, keep own base case view of an easing to occur in June.

ABHA FXS 22:40 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY
BUY LIMIT 212.46 STOP 211.87 T 214.64
SELL LIMIT 211.86 STOP 212.47 T 209.69

USA BAY 22:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks pal and goodnite see u tomorrow.

London NYAM 22:19 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
1.0055

London NYAM 22:19 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
In trading terms, look for the rebound to sell the dollar vs cad. Or buy here for 1.055 then sell for positioning. I will be anyway. good night mate.

London NYAM 22:16 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 22:13//no, we won't break 1.0377 before testing .9750 imho

USA BAY 22:15 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

If there is no cut there will be a stock market sell off and then will only cause the yen and chf to strengthen. Do you have another view that you would like to share.?

London NYAM 22:13 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
BAY//tough to say and no crystal ball but my dominant view is that jpy and chf will be the LEAST affected. it will be first a sell off of cable and eur positions and then, once the dust has settled, a realization that "why on earth would anyone hold dollar deposits...have you looked at the rates!!!" All smoke and guesses fornow, but that is our business. Best of luck.

USA BAY 22:13 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Do you think usd/cad is a buy at levels 0.9950 target 1.0450/70 area. tia

lkwd jj 22:12 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
BAY if theres no cut the usd will run vs the world. why would jpy and chf rally?





Gen dk 22:11 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 22:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London Nyam,

You are right. If we get 50bp from the Fed, we can see the equity market up but if there is no cut or 25 bp, I think we can see a sell of and that will make the yen and chf rally. Cable I think if it goes above 2.00 which will be very brief is a is a good selling opportunity.

Right now aud/usd seems like a pair to buy based on good fundamentals will probably move above 0.90.

London NYAM 22:05 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
trend line currently at 212.38

London NYAM 22:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
BAY//No i took it out. probably too early, but in these markets im happy to just make something. big swings arent the order of the day. View is we are in the midst of a fifth wave with declining momentum. potetial to hit 216 is still there. watch hourly trend line conecting 23rd jan 1600 and 28th jan 0600. when that breaks i would start exiting or looking for shorts. wind will probably come from jpy unless gbo breaks above 1.9940/60.

USA BAY 21:52 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
LONDON Nyam,

Are you still long gbp/jpy, what is your view at current levels. thanks

Syd 21:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DJ Australia's MFS Ltd. (MFS.AU) said Wednesday it put a temporary freeze on redemptions from its largest fund, the A$770 million Premium Income Fund.

The fund will send a letter to its more than 10,000 unitholders later Wednesday to inform them redemptions will be deferred for up to 180 days, a spokesman said.

Syd 21:46 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NZ's Adjusted Dec Dwelling Consents -5.2% Vs Nov
NZ's Adj Dec Dwelling Consents Ex-Apartments -11.3% Vs Nov
NZ's Adj December Dwelling Consents -6.7% Vs Year Ago
dj





Syd 21:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Goldman, Morgan Stanley Questioned on Subprime Loans
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two biggest U.S. securities firms, said they're responding to regulators' requests for information about investment products linked to home loans.

The queries concern ``the origination, purchase, securitization and servicing of subprime and non-subprime residential mortgages and related issues,'' Morgan Stanley said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

saopaulo cg 21:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
yahoo 8% lower after reporting results.......

Syd 21:35 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Everyday Spain
LINK

Syd 21:33 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Banking Giant Reveals Sub-Prime Hit
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1302896,00.html

Syd 21:26 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Economic shock hits China
HE rampant Chinese economy that Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan are confident will help insulate Australia from the worst of the global financial meltdown is starting to falter, with Chinese leaders warning of a "most difficult" year ahead.

As US President George W. Bush used his last State of the Union address to urge bipartisan support for measures to stop the world's biggest economy slipping into recession, China blamed an uncertain outlook on the financial turmoil emanating from the stressed US housing market.

Premier Wen Jiabao warned that 2008 would be "a most difficult year". Concerns about an economic slowdown in China caused by the problems in the US are now starting to overtake anxiety about the economy overheating. Economists believe any slowdown will become more pronounced after the Olympics in Beijing in the middle of the year.

Severe winter storms - which have swept unusually far south this year, bringing snow even to Shanghai and Nanjing - are exacerbating shortages and fuelling inflation, with blackouts in half the country. The weather is contributing to economic concerns in China, where shares on Monday suffered their fourth biggest fall in 10 years, down 7.2per cent in Shanghai, before steadying yesterday. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23130208-601,00.html

sofia kaprikorn 21:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I just happen to observe thaat there is a nice confluence of all Hourly, 4H, Daily time frames that point to a strong up trend run --- certainly only if we get confirmation by the break of 213. 20/30 area..

Syd 21:20 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DJ Australia's MFS: Redemptions Frozen On Premium Income Fund

seattle AW 21:18 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
there's the drop!

sofia kaprikorn 21:17 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
US SW 20:59 GMT ...................

hello, would you mind if I ask you to explain how you relate USDJPY ~109 to the DJIA 13800 level.

Sorry I miss that knowledge and I'd appreciate if you share more details on this?

dc CB 21:09 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
WSJ reports federal investigators have opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the subprime mortgage crisis, focusing on accounting fraud, securitization of loans and insider trading, among other areas, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said. The FBI wouldn't identify the cos under investigation but said that generally the bureau is looking into allegations of fraud in various stages of mortgage securitization, from those who bundled the loans, to the banks that ended up holding them. Neil Power, chief of the FBI's economic crimes unit in Washington, said the bureau was also going over the books of financial cos that have been forced into bankruptcy as a result of the mortgage crisis, to look for instances of insider trading or other wrongdoing.

Syd 21:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
FSA warns SocGen scandal could happen in UK
The Financial Services Authority has warned that the global credit crunch has ramped up the risks of a rogue trader scandal, such as the Société Générale affair, washing up on British shores.LINK

sofia kaprikorn 21:06 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
tnx for your views - highly appreciated feedback!

PAR 21:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7651fee0-cea6-11dc-877a-000077b07658.html

FL, USA AG 20:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
That Harami Pattern always cracks me up. In Hindi (india), it means bast-ard. :) GL GT

US SW 20:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I would rethink this statement

USDJPY Daily chart -- a break of ~ 107.30 will be bullish for a steep run to ~ 109 --

Ok, so your telling us that the DJIA is headed back to 13800 in the near future, not likely at all!

sofia kaprikorn 20:53 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY -- Weekly chart -- we have the notorious Harami pattern which is a Reversal sign.

TD Trendlines show targets around 224 given a break at ~ 214.65.
__________________

GBPJPY -- Daily chart -- a break at 213.46 > targets first ~ 219 <> failure points to reversal to ~ 204.65..

USDJPY Daily chart -- a break of ~ 107.30 will be bullish for a steep run to ~ 109 --

London NYAM 20:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
SW//you may be right. two points. we are struggling with positive mood momentum here. GBPUSD certainly has little left and USDJPY is not carrying its end (so far) in the carry. So unless the numbers on Yahoo are good the weight of the tecnicals will bring it down. Good numbers and you will possibly rake it in on eurjpy. My gut still says we are peterng out into the close. Normal rallies are asociated with jpy weakness. this one is usd weakness.

Gen dk 20:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 20:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Weaker yen leads to higher Nikkei .

US SW 20:39 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 20:36 GMT January 29, 2008

Don't know for sure, but they usually come out @ 430 ET at the latest

London NYAM 20:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
US SW 20:32//Nice point SW. When are they out? TIA

Syd 20:33 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NZ December building consents expected to decline but impact on NZD/USD will be muted as market waits to hear from the Fed, says ANZ Bank. Adds market rumors that Fed may not cut rates tomorrow "far-fetched," 50 bps cut already fully priced in by market; "In the current volatile environment where sentiment still remains jittery. DJ

US SW 20:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Keep your eyes on Yahoos earning..this will give your piviot for the yen tonight

Syd 20:31 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
today.. AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC) -2.6% prev

US SW 20:24 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DJIA short futures getting slaped silly....this will continue IMO

US SW 20:18 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USDJPY....Yawn...moving slowing but shurley upp from here...

Syd 20:10 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Allco Finance Group (AFG) has denied that one of its key shareholders had a "forewarning" over the big margin call on AFG shares on 23 January 2008. Some observers were surprised when there was a "massive trade" in share around 10am on that date. A spokesman for AFG said that the shareholder, Allco Principals Investment (API), was only made aware of the margin call on the afternoon of the day in question. Stockbroker and margin lender, Tricom Equities, sold 10 million shares on the market for $A30 million just before 10am on 23 January 2008. On 29 January 2008, shares in AFG gained 6.47% to close at $A3.62

Syd 20:09 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
MFS freezes redemptions on $770m investment fund
Australian property investor, MFS, has frozen redemptions in its largest fund. On 30 January 2008, unit holders in the $A770 million MFS Premium Income Fund will be advised that redemptions will be deferred for up to 180 days. This will raise concerns that it shares the financial problems of its manager. However, Guy Hutchings of MFS Investment Management says the freeze was due to the doubling of requests for redemptions. He has stressed that the fund is separate from MFS
the Age

Syd 20:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DJ Two-Thirds Of US House Votes For Stimulus Pkg; Vote Not Final

Wellington, N.Z. 20:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   


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Helsinki iw 20:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Why low rates wont work:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9335.htm

seattle AW 20:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
You're confusing offshore corporations with US taxpayers

Geneva 19:58 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
PAR 19:46 GMT January 29, 2008

Don't worry for the US they pay the bills with oil from Iraq, that's why oil remain high....!

US SW 19:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USDCAD let the sqeezing begin!

seattle AW 19:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I guess that does come out to $6,600/capita after all...!

PAR 19:46 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Biggest problem of Us economy is cost of war in Iraq and Afganistan , estimated by Us economists to cost $ 2 TRILLION .

seattle AW 19:39 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
OKOK 200billion --- $660 / capita?

PAR 19:35 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7215351.stm

US SW 19:31 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
IMO...USDJPY about to break out of this trading zone...UPP On the 90 min chart I see profit taken in the 10744-10780 zone...gl

US SW 19:10 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
seattle AW 19:06 GMT January 29, 2008


not even close ...add again

seattle AW 19:06 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
what is that like $6,600 per american citizen!?!?!?!

seattle AW 18:54 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DOD wants $70 billion more for wars

Pentagon Says 2009 Budget Will Include $70 Billion for Wars

ANNE FLAHERTY
AP News

Jan 28, 2008 16:52 EST

The White House will ask Congress next week for another $70 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, an amount that would help cover operational costs only until early next year when the next administration takes over.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said Monday that the money, included as part of the administration's 2009 budget request, would be considered an "emergency allowance" to pay for operations beginning Oct. 1, when the budget year begins, until possibly January.

President Bush asked for more than twice that amount — $196.4 billion — to fuel combat operations this fiscal year.



HMMMM Someone is printing money over in WA...talk about inflationary spending...

US SW 18:52 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
14775

USA Zeus 18:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 03:48 GMT January 28, 2008
USA Zeus
Do you think gbp/jpy will reach 213.00??

USA Zeus 03:51 GMT January 28, 2008
Malaysia puteraku73 03:48 GMT January 28, 2008

If it stops sliding here I think that is at the far end of the reach but a real possibility in the very ST. Intra/iter-day shows 207.30ish as the dynamic critical downside support.
Let's see if we can get one for the Joes'!

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
GT puteraku73!

Score another lucky strike for the trader Joe's against the Pro's!! LOL

US SW 18:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
bought the eurousd...the room was getting crouded with shorts

US SW 18:46 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
just completed a couple hours of TA on the yen...I see the cross hitting 10744 before any real resistance and the euroyen 159.60..GL everyone...

Helsinki iw 18:42 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
The ECB may or may not cut, but not to follow the Fed. All in all, the problem does not seem to be the levelof rates (they nay be too low considering inflationary pressures) but the unwilligness of the market participants to lend each other funds.

USA Zeus 18:37 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Helsinki iw 18:25 GMT January 29, 2008
You are wrong Zuess....

Wrong about what? Nothing has happened yet. LOL

Or are you suggesting that if the FOMC cuts IYO the EuroCollusion will not follow?

Cheerio!

mad 18:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Soon on our screens we could have

" The carry trade of the carry trade of the carry trade of the carry trade ."

With in the principal roles

Ben "Cow boy" Shalom Bernanke
Jean Claude " Vigilant man " Trichet
Toshihiko "Samurai" Fukui
Marvin "Pitbull" King
Zhou "SunTzu" Xiaochuan
and other guesses
8-)

USA Zeus 18:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:28 GMT January 29, 2008

Meant to say "IF there is a 50 bps..."

mad 18:28 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
...or see Japan for the last few years..

But heck, as traders and as long as the markets move, we should be happy

8-)

Helsinki iw 18:25 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
You are wrong Zuess. The Fed is intent on avoiding a 30's type depression, the ECB wants to avoid a 20's type hyperinflation. So ergo, the US will end up with hyperinflation and Europe with deep depression. Meanwhile it seems that we are close to reaching the point where monetary policy does not anymore induce a market reaction. Not good.

USA Zeus 17:28 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
50 bps cut by the FOMC and the European Collusion and BOE will play follow the leader (again).

London NYAM 17:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
US SW 17:00//Well I don't know if the FED will give 50 more grams of heroin to the market but thats just why i think the market needs to hedge its bets before tomorrow to avoid the potential future withdrawl symptoms, ie market pukes.

US SW 17:00 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   

London NYAM 16:54 GMT January 29, 2008


funny that you say this...I have a wierd feeling that the same will happen...This Is why I unloaded half of my Postion in the EUROYEN...My gut is telling me that if we get our 50 points...the market will see a sqeezing then smart money will be selling into the rally...therefore..I plan on putting a 20 point TS on the rest of my postion if we do get this short rally....

London NYAM 16:54 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
My suspician is that we end the day on a sour note. Weak longs nervous about the FOMC may drip drop it lower. The decent DG number makes a perverse argument for a cooler hand at the fed. May take a while to sink in. Would coincide nicely with dollar strengthening for the day.

US SW 16:44 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
sorry for the spelling errorrs///LOL...CUT MY EUROYEN POSTION IN HALF HERE @ 15817...

US SW 16:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
YEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE DJIA....Looking the 120 points before real resistance before the FED...

seattle AW 16:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
OK...how does this work...long CAD to 90c US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

dc CB 16:15 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
A trend? From today's Wash Post business section story on Wall Street bonuses.

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein's $67.9mil bonus dissected - assumes an 80 hour workweek and no vacation.
$1.31m/week, $261,152/day, $16,322/hour, $272/min, $5/second.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:49 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:42 GMT January 29, 2008

I agree with you on this definately.....it is all a matter of Self perspective and Self fitting ideas. So, to each his own...gotta respect that for sure...Enjoy


USA Zeus 15:46 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:38 GMT January 29, 2008

Thx Phenom. Well still holding the big money LT core short GBP/USD from 2.1112. Been alpha enhancing the returns with some add'l "trend" and counter "trend" trades accordingly. All gold shorts are making $ atm so all is well.

Happy Day!

US SW 15:44 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
FLAT exept one small postion in the EUROYEN....I don't trust anything before the FED minutes....and after the aounn..I think it will take several 4 hour bars to give us an Idea were the EURO and Pount are headed....ULT...I believe the Carry trade in Unwinding tough

Como Perrie 15:42 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I see what he says, but c'mon defining trends with seconds is something no one does...so does not looks so smart to me... I understand he loves to play the intraday noise and that's fine to me, but to come to question trends well that's a no sense to me

you can trade thousands ways, in such markets so explosive o.c. you can make much more if you play volatility instead of trends, but if It does not move then you ll got to switch to trends... or better become an investor instead of an intraday trader..

as I know the big money comes with long term positions, some are good the intraday, but most fail that..also those playing intraday are better off position trading and the forum has lotsa examples to claim both way exists...Its just he loves to trade intraday more than else

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:38 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:36 GMT January 29, 2008

You missed the point there Como.....maybe a further look into what he was saying is needed???

Nice quote Zeuser.....you flat right now other than your short posi's in GBP and Gold?

Como Perrie 15:36 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:26 GMT January 29, 2008

If trends would not exists the Dow Jones was still at 500 and never seen 14K ..so sakayota's answer does not match reality imvho

London Big Blind 15:34 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
short usd/cad stop 0.9990,for 0.9925

Como Perrie 15:33 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
As per previous NYAM onto SocGen

seems just a normal differential play more than hedging as they call at the bottom of the paper... as It seems It was that older style of a syntethic reindexing towards some specific listed papers held by SocGen - sort of Alpha Beta type of managment some funds have been abusing during the big bubble, most then with lower returns than the index..goal of such activity was to beat the index

also given laws in euroland, a hedge is part of other books seen by several offices..so can't be a hedge if there's just one persone guilty..

London NYAM 15:27 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Thanks Perie!

USA Zeus 15:26 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
trader asked a question:

I have been searching far and wide for a trader who can define a trend. None have lived up to the task...I have read piles of books and none have been able to answer my question either.


Ed Seykota answered:

Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist. Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now. Furthermore, The methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend. Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.

Como Perrie 15:26 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NYAM

find here what went public from internal auditors at socgen..so far might be just part of the story


http://www.socgen.com/sg/upload/comm24012008/en/fraudnote.pdf

US SW 15:24 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
haven't stopped out....Long target for the EUROYEN is 16114 then will go short from there...though if I do get stopped out @15737 I will go short from there with a target of 15579

Como Perrie 15:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Livingston nh 15:18 GMT January 29, 2008

oops.:))..many tks nh

gotta review some now maybe ..might be even better tomorrow than today ..to me at least...

London Big Blind 15:20 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
gbp/usd is developping momentum and chances to break 1.9835 increase, if so , 1.9785 is the next level to watch.
Euro has given a sell signal to get 1.4712 which, if it does get there, will propel usd/chf up to 1.0985( watch .55 level)
Calculations valid till at 4pm

America Xenadra 15:19 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, cushions are ready for you to bite

Livingston nh 15:18 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
the FED is tomorrow at 2PM ET - a lot between now and then

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
so far can't exclude after the FED or later early asean the euro to test 1.4650 to 1.4600.. there was an interesitng dow jones post from Syd this late ozzy hours

Como Perrie 15:14 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
trading ahead of the FED with an intraday attitude is a thing to avoid for anything, different for position trading or whatever now they call It

USA Zeus 15:12 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Interesting to see so many zig right when the market zags.

US SW 15:11 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
IMO...trading any pair in big quanity especially the YEN before the FED minutes is to much of a Gamble....the EUROUSD may shoot up, but could also fade away just as fast...This data a 2 ET will be huge...for the YEN and the USD....

London Big Blind 15:11 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
out of short usd/chf at breakeven

London Big Blind 14:53 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
An other scenario is the one in favor of dollar.
A eur/usd that opens below 1.4749 ( on a 30"chart)would dramatically increase the risk to print 1.4712. 1.4712 is much more interesting to buy the pair.
In the mean time, usd/chf would develop a potential as high as 1.0984.And this bullish action will also fill the empty space to 1.9835 for gbp/usd to confirm the formation of a robust uptrend.
I had a look on the weekly gbp/usd chart and this monday opening shows all the signs of a major pullback( up to 2.0200) with a base at 1.9795.
All calculations are valid till 4 pm GMT.

Como Perrie 14:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
maybe better cache at least part of usdcad shorts here

London Big Blind 14:31 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:19 GMT January 29, 2008
It's impossible to determine with certitude. What I can say is that , 0.9948 if broken , will call 0.9922 which is around the value of a weekly support projection. I believe this figure could be reached if the pair stays below 0.9973 ( a reasonnable level to enter short), right now the 30" chart looks bad enough to say we haven't seen the daily low/

The Netherlands Purk 14:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Closed euro/buck shorties as from yesterday. Pips are pips. Action will be for later so i will be ready. Have the feeling that bigger money is coming in.

Como Perrie 14:21 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
the london meeting calls for yen abolition :)))

US SW 14:19 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 14:00 GMT January 29, 2008



agree....how do you feel these 2 pairs will effect the USDCAD., I feel there may be some support 9850, but think it will ultimently break!

London Big Blind 14:00 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
usd/chf has failed at .55, euro is still above 1.4750, the tendency seems not to favor the dollar. This said, usd/yen shows an interesting configuration on weekly chart and I wouldn't touch gbp/usd till I see 1.9840.
Short usd/chf for 01.0950 for 1.0900 , possibly much lower considering the fundamentals.

US SW 13:35 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
bought the euroyen with a 50 point stop

mad 13:35 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast in December, suggesting business investment is holding up even as other parts of the economy weaken.

The 5.2 percent increase was the biggest since July and follows a revised 0.5 percent gain in November that was greater than previously reported, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation, demand rose 2.6 percent.


.../...Orders excluding defense equipment increased 2.9 percent. Orders for defense equipment jumped 81 percent, led by a surge in aircraft bookings.

Global-view careers 13:15 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Post your resumé or search job listings to advance your career.

Post your job offering to find the talent you need.

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NY WS 13:02 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Everyone waiting for durable goods?

St. Annaland Bob 12:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   

good day ... still cannot understand why people going into recessioin should buy gold (at least for more than 855) ... good trades!

Lagos FXStallion 11:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Voila!! gbpusd target hit, currently at 1.9923

Lagos FXStallion 11:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
gbpusd currently at 1.9915, 7 more pips to our target point of 1.9922...C'mmon,chou chou, you can do it

London NYAM 11:44 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
alimin//its been very choppy as you know. t/p on gbpusd a while back and havent seen a decent retrace to enter into. upside should be capped as well today. similar sit on gbpjpy. took a small short g/u at 1.9899. its nibbles i guess.

PAR 11:43 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Juncker " Chinese and Japanese currencies should start to reflect fundamentals " .

Makassar Alimin 11:38 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, doing good with your gbp trades? swissy is doing good job for me, should not wait very long anymore for the breakoout, FOMC would certainly trigger something

Maribor 11:18 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
EURUSD short term further rise has air for fundament...time to sell gold...

London Big Blind 11:04 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
usd/chf had its chance to do something here but failed. I see it at 1.0875 as long as it can't pass and hold 1.0930

London Big Blind 10:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
mad 10:53 GMT January 29, 2008
yep!

London NYAM 10:58 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Maribor// Thanks mate.
Big blind I dont think that one is ready to rise yet but its in its final phase. gl

Lagos FXStallion 10:57 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
we could be seeing a head and shoulder pattern failure on the gbpusd,in which a break above 1.9890 resistance level would get us a long position target of 1.9922. if pattern does not fade out, a break below 1.9809 should give us a short position target of 1.9739 on the cable,..

mad 10:54 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
you are richer than Bill Gates and Warren B altogether
8-)

Maribor 10:54 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:33 GMT January 29, 2008

As I read SG holds big market share in equities derivatives, I guess maybe some really big smart players placed bets on decline and JK tried to outsmart them as his job was to gain small differences from positions. However, big trend changes happen only every few years and you can not understand that if you are 31....just speculation, as not enough real infomation.

mad 10:53 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind

you got a gr8 fill here !! probably the best fill ever @ .0007
8*)

London Big Blind 10:51 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
long usd/cad at .0007, stop .9990, that worths to try

PAR 10:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
GBP moving up in anticipation of better than expected UK CBI retail balance . Looking for +7 vs + 2 forecast .

mad 10:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai NS
just 4 u

mad 17:45 GMT January 28, 2008
Subject:
I am here waveman, look closely it is just that it is quicker to write just mad instead of madrid mm because for whatever reason my pc is not saving my city and initials...Must be my new pc cleaner that erases everything on a regular basis

8-)

Island.. jpfx 10:47 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Super trader JK's "technique" or "system" is an effective one... but i guess emotion stumbled in and greed sets in too (that's the sure reason he placed unauthorised trades on a different mrkt and lose big chunks.. ) At least he made money for the BANK in 2007!

London NYAM 10:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
mm//Wow!

London Big Blind 10:40 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
long usd/chf at .29 since it's now above .29 for .55, stop 20 pips or open 30" below .29(it is fragile, I watch it closely), eur/usd stop at break even or tp at 1.4785
looking to buy usd/cad around 1.000,, open below 0.9998 invalids a retracement and calls 0.9975, 0.9950 possibly.Otherwise, 1.0049 is a reasonable pullback.

Mumbai NS 10:40 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
mm gud one .......but why u removed ur initials and changed name of place too anything special glgt

Syd 10:39 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
State investment funds from China and Russia are the main concern in the growing debate over whether to regulate so-called sovereign wealth funds, the chairman of Citigroup Inc. (C), Win Bischoff, said Tuesday.

"It is the China and Russia syndrome of sovereign wealth funds that is most concerning," Bischoff told a finance conference in Brussels.

Citigroup and Merrill Lynch were among the financial institutions that raised funds from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds following recent write-downs related to bad subprime mortgages.

Bischoff noted that when Citigroup raised this money, it was seen as a strengthening of the financial system. He said, however, that since then the U.S. has become more wary of state-controlled investments.

China and Russia are the main concern in the debate over whether to regulate state-backed investments, German member of the European parliament Wolf Klinz said. He said German companies are worried that China will steal its intellectual property and fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to use investments "as a political instrument."

"Yes, that's a very good point," Bischoff said, nodding at Klinz's remarks DJ

Lagos FXStallion 10:39 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
A technique like that might not be that effective, if it almost ran S.G down a few billion euros. As in, his system shud make S.C some money, not lose a big chunk of it , to deserve to be copied by traders.

mad 10:37 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Waveman, this is it , he did not know..... 8-)

Emotions took over....

He was more like this Click here!

London NYAM 10:33 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Anyone have any idea what Super trader JK's "technique" or "system" was at SocGen? French Candlesticks hanging man? tsunami wave theory? I would love to know what he thought he was doing...

Como Perrie 10:29 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Taking a relaxing long lunch. As It seems market is glued by uncertainties at current.

Como Perrie 10:23 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
am reading of some problems with the intra european bond trading system. trading was supended coupla times recently and risks of liquidity holes are rising.

mad 10:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
i see no cut from the FOMC and Fukui and Japanese wives will be very happy !!!

LOL

mad 10:21 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
PAR 09:46 GMT January 29, 2008

Probably the previous partners of Arthur Andersen, who were partly responsible for the collapse of Enron

8-)

Maribor 10:20 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
AUDUSD, AUDJPY sentiment turning down, prices should follow...gold may correct to 929 area, but going down so far as expected.

Syd 10:18 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: FX Position Squaring Likely Driver Tuesday -RBS
With still a lot of uncertainty around regarding Wednesday's FOMC rate decision FX activity today will likely involve position squaring, rather than major position taking, says Royal Bank of Scotland. After Monday's activity the short-term market is if anything short USDs and long EUR, AUD, NZD and CAD so a modest USD rally could be in the offing Tuesday says the bank.

Lagos FXStallion 10:17 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
dont know, man...we still keeping fingers crossed to hear to outcome of the case..kind of funny,1 man pushed a barrel of oil to the $100 mark, and one trader again is still held responsible for their euro crises thru Societe Generale,2 largest bank in France..

Syd 10:17 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
MOSCOW (AFP)--Russia's arms industry is suffering a near collapse in exports to China as military top brass agonize over which technology the neighboring state should be allowed, a Russian daily reported Tuesday.

The independent newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta said Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov would visit China to try to resolve problems in this key relationship before President Vladimir Putin's final term ends in May.

From a situation where 40% of Russian earnings from arms exports came from China, "recently exports to China of our military equipment and weapons have dropped almost to zero," the paper said.

London Big Blind 10:16 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Usd/cad trying to break 1.000, if a 30 min chart holds it, it will better to cover the short and pass long for a 25 pips retrace, possibly more

Syd 10:16 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
ECB's Orphanides: Euro-Zone Econ Growth To Slow Dn -Reuters

Como Perrie 10:02 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
today's dishes the London meeting and the FED tonite.

in between looks most top banks traders slowed down activity, do they have anything to hide there too? Or the big bro has called

HK RF@ 10:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Chart is looking good for the Euro so 1.4850 may be a reality soon.

Istanbul SC 10:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Hi,
Any body knows where Mr. Qindex is?
Does he quit the forum?
thnx

HK RF@ 09:58 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
PAR 09:46 GMT January 29, 2008
Who are the auditors of ECB ?
Same as at SocGen and at the Spanish banks ?

Things in S.G happened too fast all to blame on the mamagement and a Pschopathic trader.

Syd 09:52 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Citi Chmn:China,Russia State Investments Are Biggest Concern

Gen dk 09:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 09:46 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Who are the auditors of ECB ?
Same as at SocGen and at the Spanish banks ?

Gen dk 09:08 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 09:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
As the stock market drops later on, now sick of current rebound but still breathing, so might the yen strenghten. But might be later on during late today hours, or anytime if anything new extraordinary happens today again.

Syd 08:52 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY risk is seen toward a test of key support between 106.00 and 105.80, says BNP Paribas. Failure of the latter opens risk toward 104.90. Topside, the trigger is 107.15, above here the bank says would reverse the negative mood and target the bullish breakpoint at 107.90. USD/JPY now at 106.57
BNP Paribas

Como Perrie 08:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I do not see It much higher the euro, maybe due a bad expected outcome from the London meeting. At least some officials said yesterday to expect nothing positive for markets from the meeting and intervied by reuters.

London Big Blind 08:34 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Long eur/usd to 1.4820, stop 20 pips or when standing below 1.4749

Syd 08:31 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Durables Could Fly On Plane Orders-RBS

mad 08:29 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Over time, we learn that the difference between success and failure in trading is wrapped up in a concept called "risk management". ( ask Jerome and his pals at SocGen 8-))

This is a concept that is shared by all successful traders, the idea that losses must be limited.

Eventually, we learn to stop worrying about profit and to focus our attention on losses.

It is acceptable to lose money on a trade, but what is unacceptable is to lose a large amount of money on a trade.

If we take care of the losses, and we are using good strategies and techniques, the gains should take care of themselves.

Como Perrie 08:15 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
(Reuters) - Stung by another bank scandal, the leaders of Germany, Britain, France and Italy meet in London on Tuesday under pressure to prove they have the will and the wherewithal to keep the economy on the rails.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKL2854707620080128

Syd 08:12 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
ECB aid to Spanish banks say it matches Rock rescue Traders say the Spanish authorities are quietly turning a blind


Syd 08:09 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Spanish corporate debt is now 112pc of GDP. The current account deficit is 10pc of GDP. These are both flashing red warning signs

Syd 08:05 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
It will blow up when everyone least expects it AGAIN

The key difference is that the ECB rescue operation in Spain has been disguised. A veiled method is necessary since the eurozone lacks a clear-cut lender of last resort. The IMF has warned that this gap in the architecture of of the single currency could prove serious in a crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/28/bcnspain128.xml

Plovdiv Gotin 08:04 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 08:00 GMT January 29, 2008
Thanx a lot. Yes.

warsaw TOMi 08:00 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Gotin, 19895.
u think gd short local lvl? tia mate.

Como Perrie 07:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
It's from the last summer a top european bank has went short of liquidity for operations for 7 billion euros, now could be more. ECB backed the bank so to withstand collapse.

Do not know if It was SocGen or any other big european bank, but surely the problem has got into sort of epidemics and will slowly or fastly start to show out.

PAR 07:50 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Imho ECB has more than € 100 billion of worthless mortgage securities and asset backed bonds issued by Spanish banks on its book without any disclosure . What about transparancy ?

Como Perrie 07:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
PAR 07:40 GMT January 29, 2008

It's some years Ive seen from the ECB balances that there could be some 50 to 80 billion losses at least, and yet have did just a partial job and seen just part of their assets. Could be more. FED also leasing more gold than It has, hence the move up against all verbal interventions.

Plovdiv Gotin 07:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
2nd Jan cable Hi,pls?TIA mates

Como Perrie 07:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:01 GMT January 29, 2008

It's some years now big banks have been building hedge funds to hide and sell their crap outside their balances, plus the one they hold. So problem is the constellation of paper they built. Aka sort of chinese boxes managment, more similar to an underground society or the nigerian principle of politics of economics.

PAR 07:40 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Rogue trader at ECB ?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BMDMZSHQ
MUHJFQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/28/bcnspain128.xml

London Big Blind 07:07 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
short usd/chf at 1.0900 for 1.0860 stop 1.0920 or open above 1.0905

mad 07:02 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day

hasta la vista baby 8-)

mad 07:02 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
* WSJ: Pres George Bush, in his last State of Union Speech acknowledges that "we can all see that growth is slowing." He emphasized the benefits of the recent fiscal stimulus deal with lawmakers to help fight off recession, terming it "a good agreement that will keep our economy growing."

* BoJ Gov Toshihiko Fukui says Japanese economy is slowing, BoJ will try to create monetary conditions to support economy. Positive economic cycle will stay intact in the long run.

* FT: Efforts to shore up US bond insurers gathered pace on Monday as NY state regulators appointed investment bankers to advise on a rescue plan that could provide back-up credit lines for the troubled guarantors.

* UK Telegraphe article: ECB aid to Spanish banks matches Rock rescue. The key difference is that the ECB rescue operation in Spain has been disguised.

* UK Times: Yes, I did it - but all I wanted was a bonus, SocGen rogue trader Jerome Kerviel tells police.

* South China Morning Post and Standard newspapers reporting that ICBC and BoC have increased their provisions to guard against losses linked to US subprime crisis.

* Day started with Cross/JPY boosted by firmer US stocks closing, and with USD/JPY hitting day highs of 107.14 from NY close 106.90, on cross/JPY demand as large Japanese sec houses, mega-city banks bought, pushing NZD/JPY up to 83.40 from 82.80, on Uridashi related demand, and talks large US invs house, funds bought >EUR2-3b EUR/JPY o/n, sending it from 155.56 lows to 158.52 highs today.

* Topside then saw good selling from Japanese banks, US invs houses, custodian banks and sec houses into fixing of 106.77, then to 106.38 lows, and EUR/JPY to 157.16 lows, talks of selling linked to JPY repatriation, possibly the huge UST and eurozone coupons on Jan 31-Feb1.

EUR weighed on EUR/JPY sales, seen linked to JPY repatriation by Japanese lifers, pension funds and some concerns over Spanish banks/ ECB funding. EUR real money demand, probably Asian accounts still at 1.4750, with focus on the key 1.4800 handle.

GBP steady, supported on dips on potential M+A demand, with stoploss on break of key 1.99 handle, to open way for return to "2" Cable. AUD hit 2-wk highs of 0.8897, but capped ahead speculation of options at 0.89, stops above. Gold hit new high $929.40.

Platinum hit new highs of $1735, and Silver prices hitting 17-year highs of $16.76.

Nikkei +390.95pts or 2.99% at 13,478.66. JGBs lower, 10-yr JGB yield +0.060% at 1.465%.

Crude oil remains firm after o/n rise, at $91.01.

Gold prices remain firm $919.25/20.25, eye all time highs.

mad 06:55 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
hello and gm fx jedi

8-)

“Be brave when others are afraid, and afraid when others are brave.” - Warren Buffett

Syd 06:40 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Moody’s warns over Icelandic banks
Stockholm
Iceland’s triple A rating from Moody’s Investors Service, the highest the credit rating agency offers, is “at a crossroads” because of the perceived fragility of the country’s banks.
Moody’s said, in a report published on Monday, the growth in the banks’ foreign currency liabilities might “stretch the authorities’ ability to manage a crisis”.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c109b38-cdc2-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html

Syd 06:27 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Moody's: Gulf States' Spending Hikes Could Have Future Ratings Impact

Syd 06:26 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Ahead of the Fed meeting, the Australian dollar should remain rangebound, as nervous markets await an expected 50 basis point cut to 3.0% in the Federal Funds rate, ANZ debt strategist Sally Auld said. The view is shared by Lehman Brothers Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts, though he added softer equities overnight could send the local currency toward US$0.8800. "It's purely on risk aversion, whenever it picks up, the higher yielding currencies tend to be sold down, and that includes the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars."
dow

Syd 06:22 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:49 must agree with all you have said , appears the Fed have tried everything and now the final call a Recession , the USD is getting a little like the Yen soon it will be classed as a buy on dips with rates reaching rock bottom and the only way is up , but for ccy's like the Aud and Kiwi at the end of their cylce is only a matter of time before they get the final call . I just hope the RBA dont keep their hand on the trigger here and push the economy over the edge, especially especially with it running on different tracks, the one which supplies China and the rest of us. Heard today that China are looking to try and dramatically slow the economy after the Olympics , but we all know what happened after other Olympic Countries and I cant see China being any different, not saying there will be a dramatic slow down but it certainly wont be running as hot as it has been

USA Zeus 06:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Since the clueless believe the clueless, many companies that have been harboring losses have embraced the environment and write down season to unload their mess with the public fed media frenzied "subprime" tagline.

Don't believe the cause or source of many of the losses being reported as of late. A non-transparent and arbitrarily priced CDO market allows for any off balance sheet fallacy to be lumped into one culpability.


Happy Day!

Sydney ACC 04:49 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Syd 04:00 GMT January 29, 2008
Fed risks 'blood on the floor' on rate cuts
That last week's cut was made in soemthing of an information vacuum I wonder whether the FOMC may now wonder whether that is sufficient for now. If they cut by 50 bp then they could be accused as the writer highlights of being accused of pandering to the market as much as Greenspan did. Notwithstanding the cuts made so far much of the economic data released has been poor and the economy needs some stimulus to prevenmt recession, however, these cuts take time to take effect, their impact will not be felt ujntil later this year. What is more how much impact will the cut have on consumers. They have nothing left to borrow against, equity markets are flat and house prices are declining in most areas of the US.
I tend to recall Keating's words describing the 1990 recession, that it was the one we had to have. Maybe this also applies to the US. It will wean the consumer off imports, get them to save or repay debt and help to reduce the trade deficit and the dependency on China.
The market seems to have pocketed a 50 bp cut. As always I would appreciate your view. I am flat and will stay that way, but I think the market is going to get disappointed with the decission.

Syd 04:19 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Investors turn away from UK funds
Investors continued to flee UK equities and property funds last month, taking £844m out of the sectors, according to the Investment Management Association
The change in investor sentiment was highlighted by the best-selling sector being "cautious managed funds" for the second month in succession

Ho chi minh forex 04:11 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
who can i setup IB for me in Viet Nam? mail to: vanhiep3@yahoo.com

Syd 04:00 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Fed risks 'blood on the floor' on rate cuts
Today, when the 11 men and one woman take their seats, they will have much to discuss.

The committee is made up of eight permanent and four temporary members. The permanent ones are the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the president of the New York Fed. The four temporary members are selected from the other Fed districts around the country and sit for a year before handing over to others.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/29/cnfed129.xml

Syd 03:59 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Spanish banks are issuing mortgage securities and asset-backed bonds on a massive scale to park at the European Central Bank, using them as collateral to raise money at favorable rates from the official credit window in Frankfurt, according to The Daily Telegraph on Tuesday.

The rating agency Moody's said lenders had issued a record EUR53 billion in the fourth quarter, yet almost none of the securities have actually been placed on the open market, the newspaper wrote. Most have been sent directly to the ECB for use in "repo" operations, according to The Telegraph.

"The market has shut down," said Sandie Arlene Fernandez, the author of the report, according to The Telegraph. "Few, if any, of the transactions in the RBMS market (mortgage securities) have been placed since September. Some of the banks are hoping that the market will open up again but most are just preparing these deals to use as repos, which they can do since the ECB accepts AAA-rated securities," she said, as reported in The Telegraph

Brisbane Flip 03:58 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
"Shaky"? Kiwi is 25 pips off its highs on a 4 big fig rally not up 25pips from its lows. Maybe the RBC guy thought it was 6660 and back on yestedays lows not 6760 when he was asked for some insightful analysis

sing fred 03:57 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
how to trade today? Anyone give me some idea

Syd 03:45 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
NZD Down, Shaky As Futures Tip Weak US Stks - RBC

Syd 03:41 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
dj EUR/JPY's sharp fall comes amid speculation that Japan investors may convert EUR into JPY after redemption of EUR-denominated bonds on Jan. 31, which some market players estimate will be worth as much as EUR20 billion, says trader at major U.S. investment bank. "But I can't tell whether (Japanese investors) are actually selling the euro or speculators are selling it on expectations" for such Japan buying, says trader

HK RF@ 03:09 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
I dont think that we are over with scandals and fiascos.
That low interest Yen is brewing up some more market anomalies, whether the sh_t will hit the fan or from the commodities direction or bonds or any unexpected instruments. Wise will be the man who guesses. I think fund and bank traders and fund managers suppose to pass psycho. exams(at least to avoid recent scandals like S.G) because friends say Jérôme Kerviel looks as normal as a plywood.
The problem is that many french rally behind him an consider him as a hero(the biggest individual financial fraudster in history).
On this one may say: "GIVE ME A NORMAL MAN AND I SHALL CURE HIM"

Wellington, N.Z. 02:48 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   


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seattle AW 02:26 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
What is causing the USD and JPY to jump up after the close of markets in the West, like they just did. Is the Plunge protection team propping up the Dollar and the Yen?

Syd 01:39 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Price of average house 'will fall by £18,500 this year' - that's £50 a day
House prices will fall by up to a tenth this year, according to one of Britain's most powerful fund managers.


Neil Woodford, of Invesco, said they are simply too high and the average home will drop £18,500 by New Year's Eve, or £50 a day.

The fall may be much worse in some parts of the country, warned the 47-year-old investment guru, with the biggest losers the owners of new-build flats aimed at buy-to-let investors which he fears are "almost unsellable."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=510980&in_page_id=1770

dc CB 00:53 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
word from the Chief Dude.

Steve Jobs to Apple investors: 'hang in there' - AppleInsider

Gen dk 00:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:32 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Standard Chartered says its remains confident USD will enjoy sharp rebound this year due to recoupling. "Growth downside surprise risks are not yet fully priced in the U.S., but even less so in Europe and Asia. We think that downside surprises could come to a significant extent from outside the U.S. in 2008." Note USD does not necessarily do badly in recession, has "frequently rallied as U.S. investors go home. We see little reason why this time should be different." Also says many majors wildly overvalued at current levels against the USD.


MARKET TALK:Australia Dec Business Conditions Up,Confidence Dn Australian business conditions improved in December from November but confidence dropped, amid signs peak in business conditions has passed, according to NAB survey

Rio Tinto Cubriclas 00:31 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 00:17 GMT January 29, 2008
See you in the morning (my morning not yours).

Nyam Rio Tinto is in Portugal so the time its the same GMT
GT & GL

London NYAM 00:17 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
Cubriclas//I will be sure to let some ride on a break of 214.20!
good luck. See you in the morning (my morning not yours).

Rio Tinto Cubriclas 00:12 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 00:06 GMT January 29, 2008
BAY//no im only long g/j average 212.19.

Hi nyam!
Take profit around 219 and it qill be a good bet!
GT & GL

London NYAM 00:06 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
BAY//no im only long g/j average 212.19.

USA BAY 00:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks Nyam, are you short eur/gbp.

London NYAM 00:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
the latter level requires a stop-monitering perhaps around 217. gnight mate.

Tokyo 00:03 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
no Carthaginian fx circus scheduled for today?

London NYAM 00:01 GMT January 29, 2008 Reply   
bay//under 209.07 or 216.xx whichever comes first.

 


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