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Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2008

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Syd 23:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DOWJONES It is tempting to sell USD on aggressive Fed cuts, says Barclays Capital, but "we think a major sentiment shift in the market towards the view that the rest of the world will not be immune to the U.S. slowdown will limit" EUR/USD's potential upside, at least for now. Expects pair to be range-bound at 1.40-1.50 through 1Q and its double no-touch position to survive volatility in coming weeks; "the biggest risk to our view is a meaningful recovery of global equity markets that lowers the probability of the ECB easing." Notes opinions differ too about U.S. prospects, ranging from it already being in recession to Fed having to tighten again before long; means payrolls, ISM tonight may set tone for next few weeks. Still, "irrespective of the direction of equity markets, volatility should remain elevated, which as we argued last week, should keep the balance of risks tilted towards the downside" for AUD, NZD, GBP and keep JPY, CHF well supported in G10 space

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Consensus - articles on ECB I've read today: ECB dragging its feet on cutting interest rates. Many feel that if not soon, spillover of USA's credit illness has already infected EZ, question is when ECB adddress it, given they even recognize it. Also, it may be disquised that ECB has to compete with cheap USDs to maintain exports to USA...disquised in saying the EZ econ is the cause.

An ECB cut -may- come swift, deep, unannounced; methinks rather than to saber rattle first to give mkt a chance to trade on it with forethought. Not only that, the longer ECB waits the more it's going to have to cut all at once or at least weekly-biweekly cuts similar to Fed's emergency cuts. I see EUR as an unpredictable currency FXwise for those reasons. You can bet the mumbling mouthed ECB won't word their statements such that you'd ever know in advance what they'll do & when. For that reason I'm not trading any EUR pair unless I just happen to be on my platform right AS the announcement occurs that would move the mkt enough to entice me to scalp.

Another question, true or false: exit from EUR will enhance demand of other majors + Au. Comments please?

Fed has 3rd lowest overnight rate in developed countries....Japan, Switzerland are the lowest.

US SW 22:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 22:35 GMT January 31, 2008


nice following the smart money

Syd 22:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
That data will upset the RBA's apple cart manufacturing below 50 !!

Syd 22:41 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Australian January PMI Falls 8.4 Points To 49.2
Australian manufacturing slipped into negative territory for the first time in two years in January as turbulence on global markets, rising interest rates and input costs dented confidence, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Friday shows.
The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 8.4 points in January from December to 49.2. A reading below 50 points indicates manufacturing is contracting, while above 50 represents expansion. The contraction in activity, the first since February 2006, was felt in production, capacity utilization, employment, new orders and deliveries, the survey found.
Activity fell in New South Wales and Queensland, with growth easing in South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.
Wages growth eased for the second month in a row.
Australian Industry Group chief executive Heather Ridout said the direction for markets and interest rates in coming months will be key for Australian manufacturers.




philadelphia caba 22:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
added eur/gbp short at 7475, with sar above 7500 and t/p 7415 ..

Syd 22:11 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Expect AUD/USD to continue to trade "with daily gyrations in equities" in 0.8770-0.9020 range, National Australia Bank senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says; adds break at lower end of range would signal larger reversal in pair. NAB "wary of getting bullish towards the AUD while the risks of a US recession and sharp global slowdown persist" despite Fed rate cuts in January. dj

Syd 21:52 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Feel this may have a bit of an impact when its noticed in the market Warns MBIA May Lose AAA
because the thought they were home and dry .... MBIA serious implications was hearing yesterday if downgraded

S&P Downgrades Bond Insurer FGIC, Warns MBIA May Lose AAA

USA BAY 21:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Where would you short usd/cad and your tp pls. thanks a lot.

Gen dk 21:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 21:41 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
there might be interesting to trade the ozzie in coupla hours more than anything maybe .. looks yet chance to push higher if datas come positive

Syd 21:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
&P Downgrades Bond Insurer FGIC, Warns MBIA May Lose AAA

Standard & Poor's stripped bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. of its key AAA rating Thursday and warned it could take similar action against insurance units of industry leader MBIA Inc. (MBI).

S&P said Financial Guaranty, a unit of FGIC Corp., may fail to raise the capital needed to cushion possible losses on complex securities that have plunged in value. The ratings company warned MBIA will have to line up more capital soon.

"Although MBIA has succeeded in accessing $1.5 billion of additional capital, the magnitude of projected losses underscores our view that time is of the essence in the completion of capital-raising efforts," S&P said.

Syd 21:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Google shares down 8% late after revenue falls short of expectations

Como Perrie 21:23 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
now finally time to look some at forex charts.. ..1.4920 eurusd is key as i see onto upside.. but went flat earlier there

saopaulo cg 21:18 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
google is 8% lower in after markets after reporting results. Who knows in this markets.... maybe the Nasdaq closes 3% higher tomorrow even with a big hit in Google....

Como Perrie 21:14 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
small left so to sleep relaxed and maybe off into tomorrow ..unless anything blips here in the next coupla hours that might get interesting...guess not

Como Perrie 21:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
think Ive traded more in the last hour than in a month then go to read books bout overtrading :)9

Como Perrie 21:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
guess even computers had some problems today there :)))

Como Perrie 21:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I see Nyam... been bit as singing the body electric with this dow..now am fine..

St. Annaland Bob 21:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 09:19 GMT January 31, 2008
hong kong nt 11:44 GMT January 31, 2008

good day! ... we are long enough in this business to know and to realize that break of long awaited move takes place when most are not expecting it and/or while lots of pain is there to be caused within the opponent camp ... China or not, current EUR exchange rates are not something seen at sea levels ... with that said, markets will judge and the players with the healthy judgment and approach will be around to discuss and trade also future cyclical historic exchange rates regarding one or other side of the cycle ... top trades to you two and other TOP TRADERS Global View hosts ... peace!


[Disclaimer]

with any post, view or just nonsense that I may post here, no one has the right or claim to suppose that I am representing anything but my own words and lots of respect to all the top FX people around here. told you, take easy or take it tough but life will end in any case.

-- with that disclaimer I claim for the title of posting the most weird post of 2008 so far ;)

dc CB 21:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
as said before it's monoline all the time. note time of release -- time of Dow dropping 100+ pts in 5 mins. Very nervous market.

15:53 MBI MBIA Inc and XLCA on watch negative at S&P - Bloomberg (15.05 +1.14) -Update-

USA Zeus 20:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 20:35 GMT January 31, 2008

Some are indexed on Prime or Cofi but most on Libor.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Wellington, N.Z. 20:27 ADIOS.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Ny AM, thru recent vid-conf IM chat w/relators & loan inst. amigos in usa, primarily in the southeast & midwest, some in west coast, I find that these Fed rate cuts are usually NOT passed on to clients. Some institutions reduce their own var. int. loan hikes but don't eliminate hikes. Institutions are cautious abt passing them on only to repeal them later. Repealing int. cuts to clients results in badmouthing (grrr) by clients & results when loan institutions suffer defaulted contracts & have to make up the diff w/ rate hikes on var. int. loans to pay THEIR loan obligations. So no, Fed cuts don't make loans any easier in many cases. I'm sure Fed cuts would have some benefit, I can't think of one actually, but am sure someone here can offer educated opinion.

PAR 20:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Another 400 point rally in the Dow following CNBC s usual all morning negative comments on the market. This will not stop before market makes new highs more doped than Marion Jones by superliquidity drugs.

Wellington, N.Z. 20:27 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   



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USA Zeus 20:27 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I tend to cut against the grain in a natural sense. So while everyone is out yelling "Whirly bird Ben" I don't deny the FOMC's role there but I'm over here believing that money supply is actually going to be less than most expect. Loan defaults from "created" money and a change in plans from discounted cash flows incl interest to now no cash flow and no interest payments = less "created" money. Smth I posted quite a while back.
Perhaps I'll be wrong.

London NYAM 20:21 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Perie//My point was not just about investors its about institutions retail esp who wont trust the clients. Cut bank rates but will that get passed on to new clients? I doubt it. The risk premium will go both ways.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:20 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Explain how bad loans are "written off". That is, who/what actually absorbs out of pocket the losses. Sales of forclosured assets furnish some funds and factor in the fact that assessed values at time of loan don't necessarily = assessed value later in lousey economy of those assets, but after that's all said 'n done, where's the buck (pun intended) stop?

Syd 20:11 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: NZD Gains Mask Headwinds, Bears Hold Aces - BNZ
While NZD/USD pushed higher overnight and has underlying support from monetary and fiscal stimulus, selling interest should come to fore, says Bank of New Zealand FX strategist Danica Hampton; adds U.S., global economic uncertainty to dominate, pair will take cues from equity markets. Adds NZ-U.S. 3-year swap spreads appear to have peaked, expects further narrowing; NZ commodity prices also apparently peaked and risk appetite remains muted. Also, deceleration in household borrowing a sign the "wheels are starting to come off the NZ economy." Tips resistance at mid-January high of 0.7935; "a break below support at 0.7750 is really needed to suggest a deeper pull-back is on the cards." Pair last at 0.7889.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Zeus bro, yer posts 2day are RIGHT ON...keep'm comin'.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Just slammed in anutha short USD/CHF. I'll add/post as I go. This'll be the unique pair I trade likely this Q. I could use XAU for more ROI but I've reservations...probably more emotional than "real". My platy won't do commods other than XAU, XAG, won't do equities, indexes but I'd long selected grain futures watching harvest venues news & harvest times IMVHO. Ecuador has all but nationalized oil & mineral concessions including some of China to fund Ec's rebuilding/modernization (good!), so look for possible copy-cat moves in some other "nationalistic trend" Latin Am venues...mining/exploration stocks may have a shimmey.

USA Zeus 19:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
And remember, as long as institutions are those standing before the judge there will be no accountability- only victims.

UK Alex 19:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
FT: SRM seeks to block Countrywide deal

mad 19:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
good night and c u tom

hasta la vista baby

8-)

mad 19:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
How to Handle a Losing Streak
Click here!

US SW 19:43 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
europound toppy

USA Zeus 19:39 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
However there is a much larger problem. I believe is was MAD man who mentioned earlier that nearly $200 bios have been written off for subprime loans. Thank him for mentioning that. Last week the global markets were off some $5+ trillion while finger pointing at Fred in Stockton California, a well known by ALL sub std borrower who skipped out on his tract home built hastily by one of the worst national homebuilders. But(t) we know better than to believe that looking left at Fred’s case while $trillions are burned on the right does not make sense. Keep an eye on the RIGHT!

May the truth set you free!!

Happy Day!

Como Perrie 19:39 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
If am right tomorrow eurusd might get into that 1.5 already too and stocks drop alot in crazy manner

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
For the set of reasons I posted earlier today, shorted USD/CHF 1.0832 because it broke support @ 1.0848 substantially (was waiting for this test..went to 1.759 penetration) then rebounded, proving "support" isn't holding, on rebound that's when I shorted it. It's a position trade, tgt 1.0700, may move tgt lower. No stop. Have sell order 1.0924 in case it rebounds more, I'll nab it then also. These are my 1st 2 actions on what I consider potentially some month's long trading activity on this pair. I seldom put S/L on position trades & I wait for the exact environment I want before placing long term possies or I don't play. My own style. l^>

Como Perrie 19:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
maybe some chaotical factors too :)) but one see this just later

for now I see deperate defending but think will not work over days...

todays unemployment shows me NFP to be very bad tomorrow more likely

mad 19:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Geneva
Trust you ??!?!?!!?

LOL ....euuurrrrrggggggggg I will pass thank you

8-)

Como Perrie 19:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 19:30 GMT January 31, 2008

I went to see a bank's retail service last friday. Faces where those of ghosts.

But shorted onto fundamental factors, even if the news are always lovely kind of horoscopes around ref investing - most got really broke last months

Geneva 19:32 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 19:30 GMT January 31, 2008

investors have a fish memory trust me.

London NYAM 19:30 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
trust/confidence once broken is difficult to rebuild, be it in institutions, peoples/consumers, or partners. Relying on old foils and days gone by is a mistake if its done with committments and evidence. S&P crirical level at 1410/20 if e break that again then the worst may be deferred for a while.

mad 19:29 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
So i was right at last ...

Don't trust anyone !!!

8-)

Morpheus: If real is what you can feel, smell, taste and see, then 'real' is simply electrical signals interpreted by your brain

Como Perrie 19:27 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
have shorted the dow just now with a 200 points large stop into tomorrows NFPs

USA Zeus 19:23 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
accontability= accountability

mad 19:22 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
PAR

LOL

I believe a AAAAA in fact

8-)

USA Zeus 19:21 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Funny how that works. Greedy institutional investors seeking outsized gains take the same risk as less yielding ventures and later blame the rating agencies. Reminds me of the lowly investor who bought Enron or Global Crossing because that one Morning company pinned 5 stars on the donkey's A while blindfolded.

There is no accontability only victims. Makes one wonder how Calpers got it right. LOL

PAR 19:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
In todays market environment even Enron would be able to get a AAA rating .

Geneva 19:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 18:47 GMT January 31, 2008

Weekly and montly are topish, you can't rally much from here!

London NYAM 19:00 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
BAY//sorry not actively following the nzd, or aus . i like usdcad short though if that helps.

dc CB 18:56 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
From the Department of WTF did you expect them to say!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
During Q&A, when asked if MBI can be forced into bankruptcy, co says short answer for that is "no"... Notes insolvent insurance companies are taken into a state of "rehabilitation" by the NY Insurance Superintendent... Says it is virtually impossible to imagine a situation where MBI would become insolvent and go into a rehabilitation program in NY.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So where have we heard that line before : "virtually impossible to imagine a situation"

mad 18:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
maybe the DJ rally is partly due to the last day of the month ..??!?!?!

but then again , as long as it is moving ...

8-)

US SW 18:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJIA 270...in the cards

isr jweb 18:47 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
geneva - wait till the markets start to "rally"..

The Netherlands Purk 18:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
What a nice day. Was being hailed a few times. First it was Zeus in shorting the e/u above 149. Later on it was my friend the market that said that range was matured in usd/jpy once under 10590.... (i think PAR gave that signal) Can not post entries and exists, because targets where hit during off line periods. With interest i follow the usd/cad. If it falls back below 9933 than it will go under some more but this 33 level is one that keeps coming back.
Yesterday i posted that i liked14621 better than 14850+ or somewhat, well we all know what happened. I still think this is some kind of range xpansion in e/u. Cheerio

US SW 18:45 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
anyone short the euroyen for a short term trade..like 2 days

dc CB 18:41 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
"And so it has come to this: The burden of saving the world economy is placed on the backs of the average Joe and Mary. Suddenly, ordinary Americans who don't balance their checkbooks and who glaze over financial reports are sent out to spend our country back into happiness and stave off a looming recession."

Spend, Spend, Spend That Rebate

Geneva 18:24 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
After 1.25% cut in less then a month and the dollar is still here, I think it is very good news for dollar bulls.

dc CB 18:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Listening to the MBIA call, into Q&A now...suppose to answer 60 questions of 280 received.

Funny questions about "loans of the 2005 vintage"
Answer...yes that was a very good year, cellars well, but has a tendancy to cork. :)

mad 18:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
valdez , you are spoiling the day

8-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
"...some good news from Corporate World wide" Consider it good news for Master Debt's treasury but consider also WHY clients are USING their charge cards 6 fold as much. Dey hain't got no c-a-s-h, Buba. Go figger.

dc CB 17:59 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Wilburrrrrrrrrrr....rhymes with Timberrrrrrrrrr.

Wilbur Ross says "there will be fewer players" in monoline industry -
monoline problem should come to a head in next month; Key monoline aim now is to safeguard muni issuance - DJ

mad 17:59 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
..and then we will trade the Zimbabwe /usd on a large scale

8-)


At last some good news from Corporate World wide

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- MasterCard Inc., the second-biggest payment-card network, said fourth-quarter profit climbed sevenfold as consumers' use of credit and debit cards increased. The company advanced the most in three months in New York trading.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:59 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Assessment & Outlook: Written by Danske Bank - Jan 31 08 08:23 GMT
Comparing the recent scale and speed of US monetary policy easing with incoming economic data, there is no doubt that the central bank is ahead of the game compared to that which has been usual. We perceive this as a signal that the Fed is concerned about systemic risks in the financial sector and is operating with a very negative risk-scenario for the economy - a scenario which the central bank is willing to insure strongly against.

With no immediate relief in sight for the problems surrounding the financial sector and more slowing ahead in economic data throughout H1, we expect the FOMC to take full insurance against a recession. This will most likely involve a real policy rate at close to zero corresponding to a Fed funds rate in the 2-2½% range. As recent behaviour suggests, the central bank rather prefers doing -too much- than too little in the current situation. Hence, the FOMC is expected to settle in the lower end of this range easing to a terminal rate of 2% as early as June.
This, folks, tells me a continued sell of USD will be the trend. Sure conflicts with daily chart "pattern" of range. I suppose it's breakout time north for xxx/USD & south for USD/xxx.

Bon Air VA Dennis 17:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Yes those "sparkling" data from the "powerhous" of the EU certainly support at least a 6.00% rate out of the ECB. Screw the Medi-bloc! Deutschland uber alles.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I respectfully disagree, 1.50 EUR/USD will be just fine. Big money thinkers realize for health, USA must export and 1.50 or somewhat beyond DEFINITELY supports USA's exports. It's awfully important to keep the world's teit healthy even at the sacrifice temporary of the sucklers.

EU theEUROqueen 17:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The ECB will stay on hold ..and the fed will cut once again and again and again.. and that will PUSH the euro higher and higher and the chines will loss more and more..and the panic will start when the 1,5** will be a history..

happy trade

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
This is another reason I chose USD/CHF as my favorite "to short" pair:

"(SNB) Thomas Jordan - Monetary Policy and Financial Markets: What May We Expect in 2008? Written by Swiss National Bank - Jan 31 08 12:32 GMT

From the current standpoint, the Swiss National Bank anticipates a somewhat slower pace of growth for Switzerland in 2008, although the economy should remain robust. However, the risks have increased in the recent period. As a result of the oil price hikes, inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise above 2% in the first half of 2008. Despite raised stock exchange volatility, the SNB does not judge that any additional actions are necessary at present. The quarterly assessment in mid-March 2008 will provide the opportunity to assess the inflation and economic outlook on the basis of new data."
This pair provides me with the most contrast THAT ALSO HAS with the solid nature such as CHF as safehouse in dubious times, of all the pairs. Solid CHF, wobbly USD...a great combination.

dc CB 17:42 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
It's all monoline all the time. :)

12:33 TALKX Floor Talk: MBI and the market rally
The Dow (+82) saw almost a 140 pt move higher between 11:40 ET and 11:55 ET coinciding with positive commentary from the management of MBI during its conf call (which is still underway).................There continues to be a wide divergence of opinion toward the monoline insurers, and considerable uncertainty remains given the limited visibility in the group and potential fallout that could occur if a downgrade were to actually take place... During the MBI conf call, MBI shares rose as much as 14% to $15.88 (from $13.91) and peer ABK rose as much as 8%. This had a big impact in the broader market, which can be demonstrated the the 140 pt move higher in the Dow in just 15 minutes.

PAR 17:39 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
As seen in the past Us rating agencies can be highly flexible .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRZfExXcXK44&refer=home

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:32 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   

Syd 15:31 GMT January 31, 2008
DJ U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in a statement Thursday, said he's worried that U.S. senators will slow up efforts to provide millions of Americans rebates and give the economy a much-needed lift.


That's because the senators know it's not going to be any significant help. I agree, it's money blown for nothing. All the bandaids in the world won't help core financial issues...the collateral paper is already out there and can't be "taken back"..so the poison is in the water and it's the only water around.

mad 17:29 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 17:23 GMT

thank you

US SW 17:27 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USDJPY will see 107+ stop looking @ those charts and believe real Techincals...like Open Intrest and Max Pain...thats were the money is...

London NYAM 17:23 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 17:09 GMT//
yeah probably too much...
basically it depends on what you are trying to do in the hedge. i do think position trading using late friday and early sunday as extreme points in a directional play is ideal. if you mean taking simultaneous oposing positions (hedging vs 'hedging') in different pairs, then it has always seemed like more work than play. If im not that sure of my trade in the first place, then im probably beter off staying on the beach.
more clear

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:18 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Daily chart EUR/USD.
Note nice neat range trading...perched to go south if the pattern persists. Indicator of this is German econ way down - Dec retail sales.
US stocks fall, USD recovers strength
Psychological barrier 1.5000 is a tough resistance for debatable reasons.

Therefore it looks like time to short the pair. Range is between 400-550 pips using tech but the "sweet spot" long term would be from here to 350 pips short.

Counter opinion:
Reality intervenes if/when Fed cuts AGAIN, reading quips or rumors: -1.75 basis points cut by Fed in next few weeks. Dunno if that is BS, my crystal ball future predictor only takes gold coins & I only have U.S. debt currency. If Fed does cut the rumored amt of -1.75bp, USD weakness will be magnified more yet no matter what ECB does, so the chart will soar past 1.5000.

Tough times to trade longer term (even tougher to figure out scalps!).

See my post (give me a couple minutes) on Political Forum regarding banking history + specifically nearer the bottom, the Federal Reserve Bank's history. I agree with that text 100%.

mad 17:17 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin i am just curious, which time frame are you using plse ?
Because on my 1h time frame 106.80 is the top of my BB 20 -2.0

mad 17:15 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin
thx

Gen dk 17:14 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 17:13 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 17:03 GMT, mid of Bollinger Band 106.83 is a strong resistance

mad 17:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
dc CB ,

is this a case of buy the news sell the rumor then ?

8-)

mad 17:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM

euuuuuuuurrgggghhhhhh Sure .....(what the heck is waveman talking about ?) ...Sure....

8-) I appreciate it, even if it is a bit to much tech talk to me
8-)

LOL

dc CB 17:06 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks rebounded after opening sharply lower on continued bond insurer concerns and a lower than expected initial unemployment claim report. At midday stocks are posting sizeable gains, as financials and retailers led a recovery effort. The Dow has gained 330 points from its opening low.

With regard to bond insurers, MBIA (MBI 14.50, +0.54) reported a larger than expected loss, which follows Fitch Ratings cutting FGIC Corp.'s AAA rating yesterday. MBIA (MBI 14.50, +0.54) said it had an operating loss of $3.38 per share in the fourth quarter, compared to an income of $1.16 a year ago.

Despite the early concerns, bond insurers led financials, and the broader market, higher after MBIA's CEO said the company will have real and significant losses, but nothing to justify the 80% decline in share price since last year. The CEO noted the company's capital plan will exceed all AAA rating requirements.

Syd 17:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 17:04 Hi there appreciate your view on Aud at this point thanks

London NYAM 17:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 16:50//
Here on the beach...
IMHO the end of the mobth is more important in trending markets then decision point ones , except in so far as they indicate the prevailing mood (usual candle sticks applied). One reason for stepping back is that the r/rs are pretty evenly dispersed. Only USDCAD looks intetresting from a r/r view to me.
Increased vol-to-wavelegths is not necessarily a major trend reversal point, but certainly a point of uncertainty, increasing breakout risk over time. Sometimes its good to be a range trader and it has been now for several days. Does that make sense?
Anyway i only tried the hegding because of the increased breakout risk.

mad 17:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
will usd/yen climb to 107 ???

dc CB 17:00 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Dow (+132) rallies approx 130 pts over past 15 min as MBI conf call provides positive assessment of near-term outlook : Recall that yesterday concerns of MBI & ABK downgrades pulled the rug from under the market going into the close. Briefing.com

mad 17:00 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
FX Jedi,

it never was the end of the world
it never is the end of the world

because if it is, we would not be breathing anymore 8-)

This Loonie is driving my crazy 8-) it is a Lunatic .

HK Kevin 16:56 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY rallies on DJI back to green

Makassar Alimin 16:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
amazing this stoxx run, Bernanke must be thinking he is a genius now :)

mad 16:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
You got to fall in love with this Japanese Yen , definitely

8-)

mad 16:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Waveman

if you are there... but today this volatility, it made me think...
It could be that the last day of the month or even the week could be , sometimes, the best time to use the hedging technique somehow...

Whether correlated or not correlated pairs...
I don t want to argue that it could go the other way round, which i am aware ...Anyway just a thought

8-)

mad 16:40 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Canadian Dollar: End of Month Trading Anomaly Click here!

Malaysia puteraku73 16:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
US SW 16:34 GMT January 31, 2008
euroyen...clear reversal sign to 159+ no stop here....here comes the sqeeze to 160

======================

You really sure about it??

mad 16:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
bon air
8-)
how about a Chinese and Japanese banks ?

8-)


It feels like the last day of the month

Syd 16:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
RESS RELEASE: S&P Puts Two Banc Of America Large Ln 2006-BIX1 Rtgs On WtchNeg

US SW 16:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
euroyen...clear reversal sign to 159+ no stop here....here comes the sqeeze to 160

US SW 16:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
who is short the EUROYEN...not good to be you here..

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:24 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
gooner and mad, just think what it would be IF it were a German merger! rotfl

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Click click. Took some gains on swissy longs @ 1.0836

Happy Day!

Syd 15:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The U.K. pensions industry has reacted with alarm to proposed new accouting rules that could mean FTSE 100 scheme deficits will balloon by as much as GBP84 billion (EUR113 billion).Marcus Hurd, senior actuary at Aon Consulting, described the proposals as "a dagger in the side" of final salary pensions schemes that would lead to "widespread panic and misunderstanding." .efinancialnews.com

mad 15:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London Gooner

I have heard you !!!
8-)

Some people tell me the longer , the better....... I would not know

LOL

London Gooner 15:40 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 15:03 GMT January 31, 2008
BNP PARIBAS SOCGEN...how is that for a french bank name ?

=

Too short.
Banque Nationale de Paris Paribas Societe Generale S.A

That's more business card size :)

Syd 15:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in a statement Thursday, said he's worried that U.S. senators will slow up efforts to provide millions of Americans rebates and give the economy a much-needed lift.

cairo mr 15:22 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
any body know where is the gold future price is going

mad 15:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn, where have you been Sofia for the last year or so ?!?!

LOL

it means in simple term, that if you buy a PUT long by hedging with a CALL short, your PUT becomes a CALL-CALL while the hedge on the FX PLAIN VANILLA becomes an EXOTIC .

Then , by POUTING your CALL on MARGIN, your ALPHA is transformed in a BETA ....Then you CALL Fukui @ BoJ and tell Mervyn "Benny Hill" @ the BoE King to stay PUT

Clear enough 4 u ?

if you need help, plse ask Waveman, and Purk !!!

8-)

USA Zeus 15:06 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:31 GMT January 31, 2008

Oh there you are. Ty and yw. The pleasure is mine. We aim to please- Score another for the Joe's!! :-)))

sofia kaprikorn 15:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
US SW ....

wasn't sure if you refer to my question?

I actually as amateur just asked for a bit more expalnation:
- I understand that selling Puts is actually an Outright Long position -

However I wanted to understand how you got to this conclusion - I ask for advice what to look for so next time I can spot such occurence by my own..
regards!

mad 15:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Jobless Claims

Consensus 318 K
Actual 375 K

So i guess we should have a "soft" (?!?!?) NPC manana , no ?

Bllomberg is puting on its web -
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus 58,000

And by the way, we might get soon a new player in the market.....

BNP PARIBAS SOCGEN...how is that for a french bank name ?
8-)

Syd 14:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Banks warn Tricom on asset sales
THE crisis in confidence at boutique margin lender and scrip lender Tricom intensified yesterday as its bankers, led by ANZ, warned the group not to further damage the quality of its margin loan book by selling its best assets.
In the past few days Tricom's margin loan book has been sold down to $950 million, following a request from its banks to reduce its margin loan book by hundreds of millions of dollars.
The fear for other investors in the Australian market has been that the hurried sales process imposed on Tricom by its financiers could sap the prices of the most highly regarded and liquid stocks.
Australian
February 01, 2008

USA Zeus 14:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
It's not the uniqueness of the idea that's the key. It's the uniqueness of your ability to implement it.

mad 14:47 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus

let me think about it

LOL

USA Zeus 14:45 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. -Jesse Livermore

US SW 14:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
my usdcan hedge is doing ok...looks like 1.00 is very possible by tommorrow

slv sam 14:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
euro longers not to worry...be strong...already correction done and now all the way to 1.4960 and then 1.5+++!GT

US SW 14:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
what are you trying to say..the closing bell is in a hour? don't understand what you getting @

Detroit sjb 14:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:28 GMT January 31, 2008
Parrrot man at work Purk?

US SW 14:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
stoped out..157.10 GL all.....not a very good start...down 40 pips

sofia kaprikorn 14:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:27 GMT January 31, 2008
Option pressure ...........

you actually mean that short covering might manifest itself in a rally -- but then again it will be a bull rally in a bear market and those gains will be easily reversed?

smtg like bull trap - and the rally will be used asa liquidity injection for the street smarts to sell more..

do you think this veiw is any close to actual situation?? TIA!

The Netherlands Purk 14:28 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
usd/cad: next level is 1.0133 exact 100 pips higher. The goodie goodie has started.

Makassar Alimin 14:20 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
there it goes my eurjpy long, stopped out right at the dot, guess that's the direction for today

HK Kevin 14:19 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:02 GMT , yes you are right. May be next is JPY, but not EUR.

Como Perrie 14:18 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
the whole world now looking the stock market opening, guess forex too.

US SW 14:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
My new theme for the next Month..."down with the Pound", enough said

PAR 14:14 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Huge Japanese bids in USDJPY below 106.00 . Probably Kampo , BOJ and the rest of Fukui s Samourai gang.

Gen dk 14:14 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:11 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
cut out the usdchf long here from previous..long day ahead

mad 14:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Samurai Fukui can t probably wait for his retirement .... And go and play golf

8-)

mad 14:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin
maybe the FED is short the DOW, S&P, Nasdaq

8-)

Makassar Alimin 14:07 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
if stoxx tanks then Fed is cornered, they know this and that is just bad if it happens and could probably happen as they are losing credibility

Geneva 14:07 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
ONLY REAL STRONG DOLLAR WILL SAVE THE WORLD! I HOPE THEY WILL GOT IT AT THE END. GL

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:48 GMT January 31, 2008

By watching the ticker it does seem that the EUR/JPY is pretty supported right here....I may exit and get in later....we shall see

mad 14:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
FWIW, there is an "interesting" thing i noticed about the usd/cad, is that from time to time, ie on a regular basis, it always seems to create one big candle of 50-100 pips when relevant numbers come out and it rarely comes back ....

Has anyone noticed that ? this is justa general observation of course. It is like, when it is gone, it is gone for good. Sorry if i am not clear enough. 8-)

Makassar Alimin 14:02 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Kevin, chf has also made new high against usd fwiw

HK Kevin 14:00 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK RF@ 10:18 GMT, FED cut rates by 100 pts within 1 months. All currencies except RMB still can't make new highs against USD? What does it mean?
For your 1.52 t/p EUR should close above 1.50 and hit my stop today.

mad 13:58 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
-Waiting is one of the most difficult things for traders to do and the time spent between trades can often seem like unbearable agony.

-Rather than guess, I would rather wait for the market to show me which way it has decided to go before jumping in. Unless i hedge...
8-)

To wait is not a waste of time sometimes.

US SW 13:58 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
nice trade...bought as well..have a intratarget of 158.04 for 50 pips gl

Makassar Alimin 13:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
btw stop should be tight 157.18 will do

Como Perrie 13:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
For now It looks big puzzling the whole, from a fundamental perspective. Gotta see later in coupla hours what happens in the money market and bonds, more than else. Good to relex some and get some coffee again.

Makassar Alimin 13:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
bought small eurjpy 157.46, betting hourly and 4-hourly emas will support it t/p 158.20

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:48 GMT January 31, 2008

Post below is for you SW..GT

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Give me heads up when you enter later...much appreciated!!!

Gen dk 13:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 13:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
buy usdcad here at 1.0035 target >1.05 within Feb.
I still keep my position and waiting 1.08!GT

US SW 13:48 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:47 GMT January 31, 2008

Not here @ 157.50 you will get better offers Today IMO

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:47 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Short EUR/JPY as well 157.46

Como Perrie 13:45 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
as you know primary concern is stagflation and datas are very good in that sense.

Como Perrie 13:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Bonds have made huge upside correction onto deflationary jobless datas.

PAR 13:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120178552385131945.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Como Perrie 13:42 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
just 1/3 now and a reverse hedge onto upside

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:40 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Short AUD/USD at .8904 will hold over weekend, still short EUR/USD and EUR/SEK...good trades to all today and tomorrow..

Gen dk 13:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 13:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: US Jobless Claims Jump, Highest Since Oct 2005

US SW 13:33 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
data strong for exports in turn strong for the ERUOUSD

Como Perrie 13:33 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
took some usdchf shorts off for the day

hk ab 13:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
anyone got data?

London Big Blind 13:28 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd and usd/chf show a convergence of resistance/support ( respectively). In my opinion, all time highs are not for today but I'll change of mind above 1.4885
GT/GL

US SW 13:27 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Option pressure...is a good example...sometime its better to sell your options for a loss than loss everthing before expertion...so when they sell there putts...that like buying the market

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:24 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Yes of course, when people are "all selling" a currency it goes up; and I suppose down when it is being bought, correct?

EU theEUROqueen 13:21 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
hong kong nt 11:44 GMT January 31, 2008

thank u from my side they are selling the Euro..

happy trade

sofia kaprikorn 13:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
hi mate,

pls can you put your view in a bit simplistic words as I am very interested but I didn't quite get the implications?

do you use the OI to gauge where all are short so the longs will get an esy chance to break the spec shorts?

I would appreciate if you explain it to me pls!

US SW 13:11 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
My speculative vien on the Market....Yes we have been Upp Big recently, and yes there are many that think a sell off is on the Way..., but the real question is how many more shorts they can sqeeze before the Longs Run out of Gas...I think were headed Higher on the EUROYEN because of the High intrest built upp, ecpecially in the S&P opptions

129.00 SPYNY.X 1.29 0.00 N/A N/A 31,717 63,448
Open Itrest for MARCH 2.91 0.00 N/A N/A 1,819 66,757

There'S the Juice Longs are looking For!

London NYAM 13:07 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 12:54//it worked better than i expected yesterday. Didnt post except in generalities but ive been working the kinks out of risk adjusted netting strategy. that was sort of a last test before formalizing it on paper/spreadsheet. So now its back to school time and not trading time just watching and playing with charts. Its winter after all, best to stay in doors.

Helsinki iw 13:07 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Equity futures in the red. Will Ben provide more smack for the junkie? Or is the party over and the patient DOA?

mad 12:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
what goes up, must keep going up

what goes down, must keep going down

Well, sometimes 8-)

mad 12:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Standard Chartered Plc may lend as much as $7.15 billion to its Whistlejacket Capital Ltd. structured investment vehicle, the seventh bank to rescue a SIV after investors shunned debt sold by the funds.

../.. the day no more banks is helping its own SIV, writing down asset value etc, people it is gonna be fireworks, party time, cigars, champagne etc
8-)

usd/chf likes to make new low today

Waveman, how is the wave/hedging/laverage/swap/forward/future/etc. strategy working today ?

8-)

mad 12:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:15 GMT January 31, 2008
Mtl JP 12:03 GMT January 31, 2008

a few hours at the most.........8-)

Makassar Alimin 12:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
talking about strong dollar policy....now we know they mean exactly the opposite when they talked about it, cutting rate is not so supportive to strong dollar policy either...so there you go

The Netherlands Purk 12:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Watch the loonie closely now. 1.0033 is goodie goodie for longers....

London NYAM 12:15 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:03//re bonuses: Did they stop?

Mtl JP 12:03 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
mad 11:31 / the irony... it ( the tax breaks) is a way of socializing risks (or costs) and privatizing profit. How long, do you expect, before those who made the "improvident decisions" will start collecting their 100 million dollar bonuses again ?

hong kong nt 11:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK RF@ 10:37 GMT January 31, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 10:26 GMT January 31, 2008
No I didn't!!! And most of fund managers and central banks I adviced for free(on the phone), ignored it and went into the subprime business and lost their pants.

I guess it is nothing wrong to speculate on high risk assets. Only problem is buying too much (due to herd behaviour, greed and fear). BC is very right by pointing out capital management is most important in this game. Buffet also stressed "never lose your money" is prime issue..fwiw..

slv sam 11:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
slv sam 06:59 GMT January 30, 2008
if you want to make 1-2% profit till the end of this week then:
SHORT EURCHF. GT


target...1.59

PAE 11:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7270797

hong kong nt 11:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 09:19 GMT January 31, 2008
every one is selling the EURO..!!its just a matter of tme and the cinies will stop protecting the 1,5**..be ready for the break Bob..

Most in bucket shops are indeed selling dollar after rate cut. If market tends to bring surprise to most, we may see sharp fall of Euro..fwiw..

mad 11:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Subprime lenders, homebuilders and banks stand to benefit from a $14.4 billion tax break passed yesterday by a Senate committee as part of an economic stimulus package../..

Banks, which have posted $145 billion in writedowns and credit losses tied to the falling value of mortgage securities since the subprime crisis began, stand to be among the provision's biggest beneficiaries, said Robert Willens, president of Robert Willens LLC, a firm that advises Wall Street firms on tax and accounting issues.

yeah M Willens, " irony" is the nicest word you could use

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJP53FKGX5NA&refer=home

``There is an irony in it,'' Willens said. ``Clearly, it's helping to bail out those that made improvident decisions,'' lending money to people with questionable ability to repay it.

Como Perrie 10:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
PAR 10:50 GMT January 31, 2008

As am reading It, they do factor another 1/2 Pct cut from FED to come.

Syd 10:52 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Axa S.A. (AXA) became the latest pension fund to be hit by the slowing commercial property market Thursday as it imposed a six month waiting period on investors looking to withdraw funds.

Axa said in a statement that as from Jan. 31 it has "decided to implement a temporary deferral to fund switches out, surrenders from and transfers out of its Axa Life Property and Axa Pension Property funds for up to six months."

Syd 10:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Japan Banks Raise Subprime Loss Specter To $4.6B
The specter of the U.S. subprime mortgage lending crisis returned ever-grimmer to spook Japan's banks Thursday, as two of the country's biggest lenders said their subprime-related losses for the fiscal year to March 31 will likely billow to about $4.6 billion, more than double previous estimates.

PAR 10:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Us treasury trying to benefit as much as possible from Bernankes rate cuts by borrowing maximal on short term .
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN3018816520080130

Como Perrie 10:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The more likely outcome we are going to see in a reasonable and foreseeable time, is that some central bank will ruin upon the abuse of falsificated liquidity and bad debts coverages.

HK RF@ 10:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:26 GMT January 31, 2008

No I didn't!!! And most of fund managers and central banks I adviced for free(on the phone), ignored it and went into the subprime business and lost their pants.

MORAL. Free meals are not counted or not appreciated.

OR: Never distribute free meals LOL!!!!!!!!!!!



Como Perrie 10:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK RF@ 10:31 GMT January 31, 2008

Impossible with current global situation, even if some movement working onto It some decades already. At most the amero might be fixed, but more the situation goes on the harder It will be to achieve It.

HK RF@ 10:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I smell a possibility of "Central banks of the world unite" soon.

Which of course is the most unpractical thing to do.

It will be cheaper to organaize an expensive cocktail party to the bankers and let them come back to the ruins of the USD. LOL

The Netherlands Purk 10:26 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
HK RF@ 10:18 GMT January 31, 2008

You must be a very rich man seeing all this. So you went long that day?

HK RF@ 10:18 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
A simple computation based on chart gazing suggests Euro is now gestating to ~1.5560 which should not be a surprise.

As I suggested on April 17 2004 on this forum Euro targets to 1.5641, so what is less than 1% difference compared to 4_years_eternity. Because things are quiet obvious, laboring da baby may be accompanied by volatile contarctions, and maybe wild expulsion of the baby.

isr jweb 10:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
syd. good to see you - your reallly active today! thanks

Syd 09:59 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Standard & Poor's) Jan. 31, 2008--Judged by levels of indebtedness and global competitiveness, the U.K., Spain, and Italy appear most at risk from a pronounced economic slowdown, says a report titled "European Economic Forecast: Testing Times Ahead," published yesterday by Standard & Poor's.

"While the environment is difficult for the region as a whole, the ability of individual economies to withstand the conditions will depend on their current health in terms of household debt and savings, corporate debt, and international competitiveness," said Jean-Michel Six, Standard & Poor's chief economist for Europe. "Against these yardsticks, we believe the U.K., Spain, and Italy are the most exposed."
Looking ahead, the U.K. economy is at greatest risk from the "double whammy" of lower consumer demand and lower exports. Consequently, we have revised our forecast for GDP growth in the U.K. in 2008 to 1.5% from 2.0% (2007: 3.1%). We've affirmed our forecast for growth in Spain at 2.3% (2007: 3.8%), and note that the previously more optimistic consensus view has now moved in our direction at 2.6%. The French economy, meanwhile, will remain in the "slow lane" with real GDP growth of 1.8%, mirroring last year's figure and matching the level we expect in Germany in 2008. Our growth forecast for Italy is 1.3%, very close to central bank Banca d'Italia's gloomy prediction.

The Netherlands Purk 09:52 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Detroit sjb 08:37 GMT January 31, 2008

and btw whatever he or other people say about himself or him, he is one of the good guys. He taught me who the market is, and since that market is my friend.

Gen dk 09:52 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 09:48 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:46 GMT January 31, 2008

Purk you are a nice irrational individual :))


Como Perrie 09:47 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 09:19 GMT January 31, 2008

am reckoning eurusd to print 1.7 at some point. When how and how fast is unknown to me, but might be the faster way as I see.

The Netherlands Purk 09:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Detroit sjb 08:37 GMT January 31, 2008

He has many names here on the forum, he is always around, and see the archives with Purky in it, and you know more.
Welcome btw, enjoy the doom and destruction that Mr. Perrie throws in today and many days to come.

Syd 09:28 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
SINGAPORE (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 31, 2008--Banks in Asia have to contend with subprime write-downs, tightening markets, and the ailing U.S. economy--like being hit left, right, and center. But it is the U.S. economy's slowdown that could potentially deliver the significant blow, said Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today in a report on Asia ex-Japan banks, titled "Asian Banks Bracing For Triple Whammy Of Write-Downs, Tightening Markets, And Economic Slowdown

EU theEUROqueen 09:19 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
every one is selling the EURO..!!its just a matter of tme and the cinies will stop protecting the 1,5**..be ready for the break Bob..

happy trade

Syd 09:17 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY has now traded around the same levels for 10 day's, however Wednesday's upside stall at 107.47 suggests the downside is now vulnerable, says Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott. With pair now trading at 106.65, she favors small shorts on upticks to 107.00, adding at 107.30, with a stop above 107.55. Downside, suggests cover shorts ahead of 105.50 but resell on a sustained break of 104.85 to target 103.45.dj

Como Perrie 09:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
So far coupla months ago have heard how Morgan London is managing It's team for big customers. It's very orwellian there too, not to mention the primary way to attract customers is supercars, superbabse and drugs. Heard some of those guys have left becouse you need an iron stomach to digest the whole

Syd 09:16 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Fitch Downgrades Friends Provident; Changes Outlook To Negative

Syd 09:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:10 just thinking the same thing .
Romania Ctrl Bk Pledges To Keep Control Of Inflation-

Como Perrie 09:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Syd, most are extemely corrupted and corruption does not come alone, there must be some big hand to feed It.

Como Perrie 09:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Overall to me this extraordinary credit bubble has just begun to deflate. Lotsa to come yet, whatever the interest rates.

Syd 09:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:05 Watched a few programes on the Eastern European Countries and talk about dodgy :-))

Como Perrie 09:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Syd 08:54 GMT January 31, 2008

KBC was one of the primary banks involved in the hungarian economical new design. Some many top men there have made many mistakes and were heavily critisized, but still have important seats in the global bureaucracy of the faithful (or corrupted) soldiers group of neo colonialism.

Syd 08:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Hungarian economy could face stagflation in 08, KBC Securities says. "Rising inflation, especially in domestically oriented industries, against the background of a worsening labor market bodes ill for the economic outlook in 08." Stagflation would probably be the worst scenario for the central bank, as it would significantly limit the room to cut interest rates, it says. Sees no room for a rate cut in 1Q. On the contrary, the risk of an interest rate hike has increased as EUR/HUF threatens to breach 260 and higher levels, it says
DJ

Syd 08:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Expect the South African rand to keep feeling selling pressure, warns UBS. Wednesday's high inflation readings, combined with the negative effects of recent power cuts on growth, are a nasty mix. USD/ZAR at 7.3589, with a rate decision due from 1500 GMT dj

Geneva 08:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The dollar will rise just beacause the market will understand the Europe policy maker are STUPID!

Syd 08:47 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said Thursday sharply slowing U.S. economic growth is cause for concern for euro-zone policymakers.

"I'm one of those that believe that if things go badly in the U.S., that's not good for Europe," Solbes said in an interview with Spanish National Radio.

Solbes also said that his "feeling" was that the European Central Bank is leaning towards maintaining "stability" in euro-zone interest rates.

Syd 08:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
European stocks fell Thursday amid growing worries that credit-ratings downgrades at major bond insurers could trigger another round of write-downs for investment banks.

"Investors remain concerned over the earnings impact that further write-down announcements may have," said Martin Slaney, head of derivatives at censored Global Markets.
dj

Detroit sjb 08:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:35 GMT January 31, 2008
I am new here..i have asked before,,.who is the Parrot man?.

The Netherlands Purk 08:35 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I have learned that much can be build on doom and destruction. Time to build.
Thank you mr. Parrot man for learning to take first steps...
usd/jpy: that 10844 first thingy is still in the air.
What i have noticed is that usd/jpy starts to follow the e/u.
Swissy almost ready for being a leader.
Whatever it will be, the range is there!

The Netherlands Purk 08:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:34 GMT January 31, 2008

Thank you for the pips Mr. hat. Guess your trades speak.
Keeping all my core shorts. Plan active as ever.
loonie will play a big part in the movement of the usdollary.
Have a great day!

Syd 08:02 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Consumer expenditures will weigh heavily on Germany's GDP growth at year-end 2007, says Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit, after the release of worse-than-expected December and full-year 2007 retail sales data. UniCredit revises its growth forecast down to 0.3% from 0.4% on the quarter. "Since companies will do comparatively well in the months ahead, there is no reason to fear overall stagnation or even recession," he says. "However, thinking of worst-case scenarios, a 'consumer recession', i.e. two consecutive quarters with shrinking expenditures, cannot be excluded any longer," he says DJ

Amman wfakhoury 07:57 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY
++++++
buy now 158.40 tp 158.90

Syd 07:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
December retail sales for Germany come in fall -2.2% for 2007 vs 2006 in real terms. Destatis, the Federal Statistics Agency had previously forecast a fall between 1.5% and 1.8% in real terms for 2007. Retail sales in December decline by 0.1% on the month and drop by 6.9% on the year. Economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey forecast a monthly rise of 1.7%.

Syd 07:19 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DATA SNAP: German Real Retail Sales -2.2% YY In 2007

Syd 07:15 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
UK faces fund withdrawal freeze amid investor panic
Sara Seddon Kilbinger - January 31, 2008
WITH the value of commercial real estate falling in Britain, the investor rush on property funds is likely to intensify, forcing more funds to freeze withdrawals.

In recent weeks retail and institutional investors have rushed to redeem their shares in property funds, amid widespread fears that the commercial property bubble has burst.

The scale of some of the redemptions - running into millions of pounds - has plunged several funds into crisis by eroding the amount of cash they have available to make payments.

Subsequently, withdrawals have been temporarily frozen by some funds, including those run by Scottish Widows, a unit of Lloyds TSB Group; Dutch insurer Aegon's Scottish Equitable Property Fund; and Aviva Plc's Morley Fund Management's Morley Pooled Pensions Limited Property Fund.

In Australia, fund manager MFS, chaired by former Opposition leader Andrew Peacock, froze $770 million worth of investments on Tuesday affecting more than 10,000 investors.

In Britain, more freezes looked likely, with British insurer Norwich Union's Norwich Property Trust fund wiping 0.6 per cent off its December valuation of pound stg. 2.8 billion, spokesman David Gwyer said.
New Star Asset Management Group, which managed a pound stg. 1.5 billion British commercial property fund, would not put a ban on redemptions, said spokesman Ben Robinson, citing the fund's healthy 20 per cent liquidity.

But most funds also are not ruling out implementing a redemption freeze.
australian


mad 07:07 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
15:30 GMT

US TsySec Paulson at Washington, DC press conference.

Geneva 07:06 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Just keep in mind that 90% January is The low or the High of the year! I will be suprise if this is the low? GL

Geneva 07:06 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Just keep in mind that 90% January is The low or the High of the year! I will be suprise if this is the low? GL

Syd 07:06 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ European Stocks Called Lower; Fed Rate Cut Rally Fizzles Out

mad 07:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
1.50 euro / usd is the next big HUGE ENORMOUS lvl...

Psychologically that is...

8-)

have a gr8 day

mad 07:02 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
* Billionaire Wilbur Ross is examining if he should invest in bond insurers, an investment he thinks could be over a billion dollars. Bond insurers should not lose "AAA" ratings, he told CNBC.

* MBIA says private-equity firm Warburg Pincus has completed a $500 million investment. It reports a Q4 loss of $2.3bln.

* Rating agencies may downgrade bond insurers AMBAC, and MBIA as early as today. - CNBC report.

* Bloomberg Fed Watcher John Berry: Fed May Be Raising Rates Before Summer's Over.

* US Trsy Sec Henry Paulson says he is a "big believer" in Fed's actions. Believes in strong USD in US interest.

* Pres George Bush: US economy slowing, but remains resilient.

* BoJ Kiyohiko Nishimura says BoJ will undoubtedly act flexibly on monetary policy if downside risks heighten. BoJ will not rule out any policy options. BoJ stance is to raise rates, but need to act against economic shocks, cannot rule out chance of temporary US recession. Inappropriate to pre-emptively judge the effect of a rate cut from 0.5%.

* Japanese chief cabinet sec Nobutaka Machimura says the Government has not decided on the next BoJ Governor.

* BoC Dep Gov Paul Jenkins reiterates CAD rate around 98 US cts not inconsistent with fundamentals. Would factor any C$ rise outside of appropriate range into interest rates decisions.

* FT article: Qatar weighs idea of dropping USD peg.

* Another choppy day again, as Asia continued where US left, pushing USD/JPY, Cross/JPY down on fears embattled bond insurers may lose their coveted AAA ratings. USD/JPY hit 106.03 lows given, but ran into "solid" bids from Asian, China, Taiwan, options and talks of Kampo, pension funds bids. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY all lower.

* AUD diving to 0.8815 from NY close 0.8925 on stops, mkts cautious of huge Equity linked London fix sales. USD/JPY, Cross/JPY, stocks rebounded as MBIA receivers $500m funding, and Investor Ross buy invest in bond insurer.

EUR hit day highs of 1.4893 from 1.4845-60 on talks of very good buying from real money, Asian CBs, China bids, with focus on key 1.49 handle again after it hit 2-week highs 1.4910 post Fed Cut. Eye all time highs 1.4966, with talks of huge options at psychological 1.5000 again.

GBP looking toward key 2.00 as GBP/JPY up sharply at 211.90 from 211 lows on Russian demand, with Cross/JPY seen edging further up as markets sentiment seem improving into Asian afternoon trading, focus on any rating actions/ affirmation on Bond insurers MBIA/ AMBAC. USD/CHF dipping to all time lows of 1.0812, eye SNB.

Nikkei +1.85% or +247.44pts at 13,592.47. JGBs flat, with 10-yr JGB yield +0.005% at 1.430%..

Crude oil a tad lower, dipping to $91.07, -$1.26.

Gold prices remain firm at $924.00/925.00, eye new highs.

Syd 07:02 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
German MOF: German Growth To Slow 2008 On Global Conditions
The ministry cites such factors as "the appreciation of the euro, the rise in crude oil prices and the expected weakening of the world economy."

The comments come after the government last week cut its 2008 growth outlook to 1.7% from 2.0% after the economy grew by a real 2.5% in 2007.

The report made no reference to the recent downturn in financial markets, which Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck has said will impact German and European growth.

The ministry said growth in Europe's largest economy lost some steam in the fourth quarter of 2007, partly because the appreciation of the euro, which rose 15 cents against the dollar between January and November 2007, left "skid marks" on exports.

The euro has flirted with $1.50, but has eased again recently, trading at around $1.48.

Syd 06:57 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Qindex is missing lately

Malaysia puteraku73 06:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:34 GMT January 31, 2008
Short EUR/USD 1.4909

=================

You think eur/usd will go below 1.4850??

GENEVA DS 06:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
strange feeling that market is too negative on USDJPY and xxx/JPY crosses... , hearing all over only negative comments on EURJPY and especially AUDJPY.... watch the killerwave on the upside over course of next 6 month... a break of 160.00 in EURJPY could spark yet another wave of buying and break of 96.000 in AUDJPY will bring probably 100.00 quickly... (or may be extremely quickly...) good luck mates..

mad 06:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
hello and GM FX Jedi

8-)

Syd 06:51 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Copper Faces Recession Risk, But May Rally 2H -Morgan Stanley
Copper is the metal most vulnerable to a large pullback if a U.S. recession occurs in the first half of this year, although a decoupling of emerging markets from the U.S. would slow its descent, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.

USA Zeus 06:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.4909

USA Zeus 06:21 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Added some USD/CHF longs @ 1.0798

Syd 05:58 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Bond Insurer MBIA Earnings Drop As Mortgage Losses Soar

Syd 05:55 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
BOJ Fukui: Yen Rise Isn't Necessarily Negative For Econ
A stronger yen isn't necessarily negative for the domestic economy, Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said Thursday.

Syd 05:24 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ MBIA Posts 4Q Mark-To-Mkt, Forex Loss $2.3B, $18.04/Shr, After Tax

dc CB 04:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
"The bottles stand as empty, as they were filled before.
Time there was and plenty, but from that cup no more.
Though I could not caution all, I still might warn a few:
Dont lend your hand to raise no flag atop no ship of fools.

dc CB 04:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
"Ship of fools on a cruel sea, ship of fools sail away from me.
It was later than I thought when I first believed you,
Now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools."

Syd 04:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
-- MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two largest bond insurers, may each lose $11.6 billion on guarantees of mortgage-linked debt and other securities, according to hedge fund manager William Ackman.
To determine whether the companies will retain their top AAA rankings, stamped on $2.4 trillion of securities they guarantee, analysts have tried to estimate likely losses on bonds and CDOs.

In a report last week, New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts forecast pretax losses related to residential mortgage securities of $11.4 billion for Ambac and $8 billion for MBIA. S&P said earlier this month that Ambac could lose $1.9 billion after taxes, and MBIA $3.2 billion. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3ZRIVvHPT7U&refer=home

Syd 04:17 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
wsj In an early sign that banks' mortgage woes are spreading to new types of investments, UBS AG warned that its 2007 losses will be $4 billion more than it thought just a month ago.

The Swiss banking giant took its third write-down in four months, bringing its total to an estimated $18.4 billion for 2007. The company didn't detail the reasons, but one analyst said the move was in part because of losses on securities other than those tied to subprime home mortgages. UBS also expects to report its first loss in the firm's 10-year history.

In October, when UBS reported a $4.4 billion loss for subprime-related investments, its new chief executive, Marcel Rohner, said the goal was to "leave as much as we can of this substantially behind us." In December, UBS appeared to have put a cap on things when it projected a $10 billion fourth-quarter writedown.

But now, the disclosures could hurt UBS Chairman Marcel Ospel just as the bank is preparing for a crucial shareholders meeting on Feb. 27 to approve an $11.5 billion capital infusion from Asian and Middle Eastern investors. Since July, a parade of UBS executives have headed for the exits amid the subprime turmoil, including the former chief executive, the chief financial officer, the head of investment banking and the bank's fixed-income chief.

"I'm not sure there's enough trust in the chairman," said Dominique Biedermann, a director of Ethos, a Swiss activist investment fund that manages roughly 80 million Swiss francs ($73.2 million) in UBS shares and is influential because it makes recommendations to Swiss public pension funds. "We would welcome the board presenting one or two candidates to succeed him."

UBS declined to comment on Mr. Ospel.
Analysts think there could be more pain to come. UBS, for example, isn't marking down some holdings as steeply as other investment banks, according to a Citigroup report. Yesterday, Oppenheimer & Co. said that if bond insurers weaken further and are downgraded by ratings companies, banks including UBS may have to write down assets totaling $100 billion.

UBS declined to comment.

Separately, Standard & Poor's yesterday issued a negative outlook for European banks UBS, Barclays PLC, Deutsche Bank AG and Fortis NV due to concern about slowing capital-markets business and capital levels.

UBS, Switzerland's biggest bank by market value and one of the world's largest wealth managers, said it expects to post a fourth-quarter net loss of 12.5 billion francs and a 2007 net loss of 4.4 billion francs. In 2006, UBS reported profit of 11.25 billion francs.

Syd 04:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Moody's Reports: Global Economy Faces Increasingly Plausible Stress Scenarios In 2008-09

Syd 03:54 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Brisbane 03:49 GMT Hi , at the moment seems to be ok I know them was a bit surprised - for me I would move while things are ok. but thats my opinion wouldnt feel happy shouldnt have happened must be bad management .

Brisbane 03:49 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Hi Syd,
I have an fx acct. with Tricom
what is your view on their situation......Tia

Syd 03:04 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
SYDNEY Macquarie Group Ltd.'s (MQG.AU) high-yield fund manager, Macquarie Fortress Investments Ltd. (MFN.AU), said it expected the value of its fund to slide again in January after a recent further deterioration in markets.

The net asset value of the notes is expected to have fallen to a fresh low of around 55 cents as of Jan. 29, from 68.2 cents at the end of December, the group said in a statement Wednesday.

The group said that since Jan. 22 its investment manager has sold senior loans from its portfolio with a face value of US$56 million, using the proceeds to pay down debt.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:52 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
ldn 02:28 GMT January 31, 2008
You could be right but they don't put all the content on lables when they export to here in the first place. Hence folks here leary of Chinese food. Case in point, toothpaste colored w/ white Pb oxide that didn't list it in contents lables (& present day Chinese toys' paint!), noodle flavor-packages loaded with MSG & preservative gunk. Chinese govm't has to strictly control what goes out or reputation suffers greatly. But irresponsibility on Latin Am's part is also to blame. Ecuador for instance uses more pesticides and agrichemicals per capita than any country in all the Americas & many of the chemicals are banned in G7 because of carcenogenic & other effects. Makes you wanna eat a meal here right now, eh? Hence my organic farm.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
bc, if the Gulf Stream slows down more (it's been slowing for almost 100 years per measurements due to ever warming sea water surface) there's a point to where the North Sea's cold water will accumulate rather than being displaced by warm Gulf water...and not dipping down under the surface following the seafloor, popping up near the Canaris off Africa, that giving northern Europe a freeze. That supposedly started the last ice ages world wide. Not discounting China's land mass either...if China does get colder on the aveage AND northern Europe too, bundle up, it's a comin'. Not that I would mind if Frankfurt was under 3 km of ice if that's all it would be (NOT) but world ag would suffer immensely. Ice ages have started rather fast once things precipitate them.
Out for late supper.

~~~Chuck~~~

Syd 02:45 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Comment: Variations on a theme: this one a massive ‘double top’. It is just a matter of time before we get the weekly close below 90.00 that completes the pattern. Until then rallies to 98.00, and no higher than the psychological 100.00, are seen as good selling opportunities for a big slide lower. Our measured targets are 82.00/80.00 medium term and 72.00 long term. Note that this is such a very massive and important top that this cross in unlikely to trade above 106.00 for years.
LINK

Syd 02:38 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
shanghai bc 02 Looks like that , also bad weather in Canada , and we are gettting loads of rain , like being back in the UK :-))

shanghai bc 02:36 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Syd 02:33 GMT January 31, 2008

The much feared global-warming in Al Gore's barnyard will start with a new Ice-Age in Asia :)

Syd 02:33 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
China's Big Freeze Affects 105 Million People:State Media-AFP


BEIJING (AFP)--China's big freeze has affected 105 million people, leaving at least 64 dead and millions short of basic goods and sowing havoc on the transport and power networks, state media said Thursday.

The mounting toll caused by the severest winter weather for half a century includes 2.5 million people who have been evacuated from the worst-hit areas, or are awaiting evacuation, the China Daily said.

More misery was expected in broad areas of central, southern and eastern China as the conditions are forecast to continue through the end of the week, according to the state meteorological agency.


ldn 02:28 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
"I'm surprised we don't import it here"..you will not be if you read the back label and do an analysis of its contents...lol,,,,,

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:19 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
bc, thank you sir, much appreciated by all I'm sure. You are a valuable window into Asia, especially your beloved China and we appreciate your taking the time to post here. I've got to sample some of that Chinese wine! I'm surprised we don't import it here..most comes from Chile & USA.

shanghai bc 02:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:23 GMT January 31, 2008

The stock bubble in China was there even early last year with PE above 50 even then..School kids trading with lunch money and monks and nuns trading stocks were seen too..Same as the Hunchback of Notre Dame,priests and nuns trading stocks in the West..A typical stock bubble waiting to be corrected for some months..To make the matter very funny,the most expensive stocks in China are wine stocks ( mao-Tai) with the gold stock and shipping stock coming second and third..Wine,Gold and shipping stocks being the most expensive stocks,not Petro-China nor any other industrial heavyweights..Petro-China is larger than the whole of Russian stock market in capital terms but it has been falling since it was listed in the Mainland..That says a lot about Chinese stock market mainly patronized by the lumpen public at large..The general market may correct a few more months ..Then,stock investment is all about picking the right stocks not about the general market ups and downs for me..The future is bright but the road is tortuous:)

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:09 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Also I think many have forgotten the possibility of ECB cutting rates..as Zeus said EZ is in for one heck of a wake up call, it's heavily influenced by USA's health...to wit knee crawling recovery after 9-11. Whatever happens in USA seems to be magnified in EZ. Now if/when ECB cuts and if it cuts soon, then EUR/USD will maintain the present daily chart pattern & rush off this top, maintainng the 450 range trade pattern.

I haven't heard a word about anything re: ECB lately vs its inflation estimates (if any). Therefore if anyone does have info on this please post. Actually I'd put more faith in the long run in USA recouperating than EZ to tell U the truth because USA isn't composed of a wad of countries, it's just one & management is easier. Actually it's best to keep tuned to EZ's potential moves as clues to FX movements.

USA Zeus 01:59 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
What they really need to be careful of is the bait and switch. The European Collusionists Bank (ECB) has them looking left while they come in on the right flank. In the end they are simply walking down the plank while blindfolded barking about the bigger, better at everything sibling and how someday they want to kick their A but in reality they take the next step and dive-bomb once again with a big belly flop barrel roll splash overboard....poof! like a depth charge.

So called "problems" in the US economy pale in comparison to the storm that is brewing in Euroland. Even the Brittons are about to get Pounded. But nobody can believe that or they won't lose their money so they are pumped with the "look left" while they self-destruct on the right.

Syd 01:56 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Bay was looking around that level also just keep an eye on china stocks too may take a dive






USA BAY 01:53 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
SYD,

I think we can see some buying interest at 8860 for aud/usd and could go up till 8960/70 which may start to be a selling point but because of the NFP if the unemployment rate is bad it could be more to downside for the dollar, but I think aud/jpy is definitely a sell and it could be the yen story for some time, definitely not a time to be short yen.

Syd 01:48 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Standard & Poor's downgraded or threatened to downgrade more than 8,000 mortgage investments and projected a widening array of financial institutions would ultimately face mortgage-securities losses totaling more than $265 billion.

The new sweep of downgrades -- the largest of several during the past few months -- threatens to create new turmoil in a market already shell-shocked by write-downs of about $100 billion at big financial firms and declines in housing values that have put the economy on the brink of a recession.

S&P suggested that many financial institutions would need to sell some of the bonds affected by yesterday's rating action. In all, it expects losses for financial institutions would more than double from what has already been recognized, affecting many firms that haven't yet acknowledged problems. Analysts have said total losses on mortgages -- which would include many that don't go into mortgage-backed securities -- could hit as much $400 billion. S&P's economist, David Wyss, estimated that by the end of 2008, national home-price declines could reach 13% and that the housing market wouldn't bottom until early 2009.
wsj

"Banks are bracing for another chapter in the unfolding story of their mortgage-market problems," wrote Tanya Azarchs, an S&P analyst, in a report released yesterday after the market closed.

Syd 01:46 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Nishimura: Cannot Rule Out Downside Risks For European Econ

Syd 01:44 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Wonder if thats gone through yet

AUD/USD could sell off post-Fed decision regardless of size of interest rate cut with potential for Australian pension funds to sell AUD at month end, National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says. Adds global equities ex-Australia markets down 9% since start of month in AUD terms. Notes Australian pension funds' portfolios potentially "overhedged" by up to A$10 billion, would need to sell these AUD positions. Rally in equities markets could mitigate extent of selloff.

Syd 01:39 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 01:37 GMT it seems to have a problem at that level rate hike well priced in now , so yes your probably correct USD holding up well , think Euro also topping if not already

USA Zeus 01:39 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Well the "hope" by many here has been to buy EUR/USD at the channel tops to see 400-500 "certain" pips only to see their channel break away fantasies wash away on the multiple stop outs. How many failures and stop outs will it take? Seems like they are more timid now. Only barking loudly but trading and positioning like pikers...hmpf

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
LOL, strange mkt to grab, gold futures down $100 yet I think people look for it as safehouse. Am flat now, TP'd on swissy shorts, took out remaining sell order although one at floor level did hit for small profit before I closed it. If Fed really does cut -1.25 more in two weeks we can surely short any USD/XXX or long any XXX/USD. Anyone disagree? If so post w/reasons.

USA BAY 01:37 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
SYD,

I think we will se aud/usd at 90cents which will a good level to sell with target 85cents.

Syd 01:29 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Australian Credit Will Slow Further - UBS

Syd 01:26 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Spot gold likely to remain under pressure short-term as global equity markets weak despite Fed's 50 bps rate cut overnight, says Hong Kong-based trader. "We saw good selling after the Asian opening around the $926 area," trader says. "I think overall gold's still under pressure because if you look at the Dow futures it's down 100 points now." DJ

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:23 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
That's intersting Syd...especially when China has been going all out to get people to use banks, now this. Makes me wonder how much "safehouse" they'll buy if they don't particularly trust their banks.

I've been seeing where folks think Fed is copying the mkt consensus. I don't think it's fact that the Fed chief & Co. are mimicking the mkt pundits, that is, he's most likely -not- just parroting consensus saving him from originality. True, there's not much Fed can do to help core problems but indeed mkt concensus nailed it this time (-.50 IS -.50), but remember last time Ben & his advisors surprised the mkt with -.75. Fed sure didn't follow consensus then. Ben doesn't have a lot of other clout actually, cuts & hikes are Fed's only real weapon to modulate money circulation. It's to me doubtful that anything Fed CAN do will come anywhere near solving the financial house of cards, so Ben's Fed can try all it wants & he'll probably find himself in the same mess only THEN exposing the real hardcore problem after Fed's out of ammo. I dunno if I'm right on that come a floor of 0% interset, but so far, yes. "Had Fed just sat back a bit during the hawk days & tested the hikes one by one instead of pile them on, this is the theory says anyway, things may have turned out better". Well, that quote is debatable. Remember, it's not just uniquely the overnight interest that gut slammed America although that's the popular whipping boy, it's other factors as well.

London NYAM 01:14 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
taken off all my positions. gbpusdshorts and gbpjpy shorts. that was a fun wave netting.

Syd 00:50 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
China shares may fall further, investors likely disappointed that Fed's 50bp rate cut failed to give sustainable lift to U.S. stocks overnight. Also some concern over state of U.S. economy, knock on effect on China, given Fed thinks there's need for 125 bps of cuts over 2 weeks; Shanghai Composite tipped to test psychological support at 4200 after ending off 0.9% at 4417.85 last session. "The fall in U.S. bank stocks doesn't bode well for Chinese banks, which would fall on their own anyway because of tightening concerns from Beijing. The U.S. factor worsens an already-bad outlook for Chinese banks," says Huatai Securities Chen Jinren. Analysts say continued severe weather expected to further dampen sentiment as investors mull actual, potential economic impact; state-run Shanghai Securities News reported today direct economic impact of snow storm has increased to CNY32.7 billion. DJ

Syd 00:45 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Countrywide Financial Corp. confirmed yesterday that it received a subpoena from the Florida attorney general seeking information on its business practices.

The subpoena adds to the problems for the Calabasas, Calif., lender, which has drawn the ire of bankruptcy judges, borrowers and consumer groups for months.

Syd 00:34 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Australian New Home Sales Fall 1.3% In Dec Vs Nov -HIA
Australian new homes sales fell 1.3% in December versus November, the second consecutive monthly decline as higher interest rates curbed demand.

The survey of major builders and developers by the Housing Industry Association also showed a 2.9% drop in the sale of detached houses. New home sales fell 0.3% in 2007 from 2006.

Syd 00:33 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 00:31 true

Syd 00:32 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
WSJMBIA Sags Wed After News Of ProbeBond insurers led much of the late-afternoon declines after a report from Oppenheimer warned that problems for the companies could filter even more into larger financials, and Fitch cut its rating on Financial Guaranty Insurance Corp., or FGIC, to double-A.

isr jweb 00:31 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
syd. its amazing how the yen controls all.. buy the yen and who u get it in the majors..

Syd 00:24 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Mortgage Bond Downgrades To Hurt GSEs, Asian Banks - S&P

Syd 00:17 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
March Nikkei 225 futures sharply lower on overnight fall in U.S. stocks. Contract may stay weak as mood also soured by weakness of Nasdaq futures in Asian screen trade, traders say. Lead contract down 1.8% at Y13180.

Syd 00:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ Australian New Home Sales Fall 1.3% In Dec Vs Nov-HIA

Syd 00:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
Asian bank stocks could be pressured down slightly as S&P announces it's downgraded or taken negative rating action on 6,389 residential mortgage bonds backed by subprime borrowers, also 1,953 ratings placed on CDOs backed by mortgages. Mentions downgrades expand number of banks affected by credit crunch, including some Asian banks. Already well known that Asian banks have some exposure to subprime loans DJ

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:12 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
I might add that since EUR/USD has range traded for months (see day chart) in nice neat cycles of 450 +/- pips in a very defined range (trader's dream). It's very tempting therefore BY CHART pattern to short the pair now in "hopes" it will begin another cycle dip to about 1.44xx. Ordinarily I'd therefore do a short right about now but lately with all the US finance sector vulnerability + exit from US equities lately that I don't have the faith & guts I need to run a short "plan" for a month in what appears to be a possible renewed 400 pip USD strength. "Hopes" doesn't a trader make.

Your opinions please!!

Mtl JP 00:10 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
valdez 13:17... here go pooff the hundreds of billions of bux on military spending (4-5% of GDP) supposedly proping the buck:

Fake $100 `supernotes' have features just like the real ones
Here's why a supernote is super.

I am not quite sure what can ever be "real" about a fiat in the first place.

Syd 00:05 GMT January 31, 2008 Reply   
DJ AUD/USD falls below 0.8850 in Asian morning trade taking cues from struggling equities markets, Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie says. Notes AUD price action "very disappointing for Aussie bulls", resembles retreat from near 0.90 levels in late October/early November; "it was very quick and very harsh." Tentative support at 0.8850 broken, firmer base pegged at 0.8805

 


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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading and binary options.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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