Forex Forum Archive for 06/10/2009

Syd 23:41 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:30 the self employed were not included in that data , many of which are in the building trade the worst hit , funny how they have a habit of omitting the obvious when it suits them !

Syd 23:39 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
AUD/USD likely to trade 0.7980-0.8075 range leading into key employment data, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace.

Lahore FM 23:30 GMT June 10, 2009
thanx Syd,if i recall correctly,the last aud jobs data needed a big chunk of salt to help wash down..

Melbourne Qindex 23:07 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is going to vibrate around 1.3973 with an expected magnitude of 1.3905 - 1.4041 for the time being. We can have a better idea after markets opened in Tokyo and Hong Kong.

GVI Forex john 22:56 GMT June 10, 2009
The setup videos are a good place to start a discussion for the next day's trade so please feel free to comment after viewing them. Videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge AL.


Next day set-up videos. Be sure to Click on the today's link on the new video homepage for each video.

EUR/USD Video

GBP/USD Video

Syd 22:45 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:40 good morning (day) will find some stuff :-)

Lahore FM 22:40 GMT June 10, 2009
Syd,any Aud job data preview?thank you!

Maribor 22:34 GMT June 10, 2009
GBPCAD is set to weaken significantly(now 1,8126)...

I guess stop hunting was the name of the game which sent rates away from their set directions...

Lahore FM 22:21 GMT June 10, 2009
Dear Gooner,your view on today's moves in ftse100 and us stox if you read this plz?

many thanx!

Santorini Alexis 21:59 GMT June 10, 2009
Thanks a lot FM.

Lahore FM 21:56 GMT June 10, 2009
Alex,if was the asked,eurgbp on multiweek multimonth support 0.8550.keeping an eye to set up mid to long term longs is the thing to do.

Santorini Alexis 21:49 GMT June 10, 2009
Something regarding the eurgbp, even though a bottom hasn't been set up, momentum seems very weak to me. And when the reverse takes place, it will be really violent. I might be wrong, as I often do, so would like to hear other views.

Tia

Santorini Alexis 21:46 GMT June 10, 2009
Syd, well, I don't believe that interventions could actually change a trend. Whatever trend. Check the CHF and the SNB. They intervened several times, what they have achieved was short-lived. It seems like "big boys" like doing the opposite of what CBs want. From which CB are you waiting an intervention? If you are talking about RBNZ, I don't think they have much "power" to change a trend. And if something like this happens, this wouldn't be because of an intervention, but because the market wants it to be like this.

Lahore FM 21:41 GMT June 10, 2009
commodity fx trio can soon achieve escape velocity on the southbound move imho!

Lahore FM 21:36 GMT June 10, 2009
Syd,how is your hand now?hopefully healing already!

Syd 21:34 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Santorini Alexis with movements over the last few days wouldnt be surprised to see them step into the market
discreetly - as Central used to do in the past , perhaps the meeting G8 may bring some surprised especially with some saying they are not going to talk much about FX !!

Syd 21:30 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Recent rise in NZD creating "unhelpful tension" with RBNZ projections, could stifle projected recovery in exports, and overall activity, says RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard. Notes NZD about 12% higher on trade weighted basis since previous statement. Says there has been "premature tightening" in domestic financial conditions, driven by high NZD, reduction in risk aversion. Concern tighter financial conditions could undermine recovery "is one of the reasons why we expect the OCR to remain around current levels until the latter part of next year." Comments should support broad market expectations Kiwi headed lower over short term despite recent sharp gains, will keep traders focussed on cash rate trough, economic recovery theme. Bollard underscores assumption NZD will weaken, says "is a key judgment and is clearly an area of risk." Expects renewed focus on domestic developments "particularly New Zealand's stretched external position" to put downward pressure on Kiwi

RBNZ Hasn't Closed Door To Further Cuts - JPM

Santorini Alexis 21:15 GMT June 10, 2009
Are these guys ever correct?

Syd 21:06 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
*DJ Bollard:NZD Rise Creates "Unhelpful Tension" with Projection
RBNZ Sees Unemployment At 7.1% In 1Q 2010; 6.8% 1Q 2011
RBNZ Sees NZ TWI At 57.1 In 2H09; 54.7 At 1H09 RBNZ Sees 12-Months To March 2010 GDP +0.8%; 2011 +4.0%
RBNZ Sees 12-Months To March 2009 GDP -2.6% RBNZ Sees 2H09 Annual CPI At 1.0%; 1H10 1.3%
RBNZ Sees 90-Day Bank-Bills At 2.9% 2H10
Bollard: Room For More Reductions In Short Term Lending Rates
Bollard: Domestic Fin Conditions Have Tightened Prematurely Bollard: Intl Econ Stabilizing, Financial Conditions Improving Bollard: Risks To Econ Activity Weighted To Downside
Bollard: Negative Or Weak Growth To Continue For Next Few Qtrs
Bollard: Recovery In NZ Econ To Be Slow, Fragile Starting 09 Bollard: NZ's Stretched External Position To Pressure NZD Bollard: NZD Rise Putting Sustainability Of Recovery At Risk : CPI To Return To Band In 2010

Maribor 21:04 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Can anybody explain rate movements few minutes ago? Is there any singular bank or institution poverfull enough to dictate rates as they please??

Syd 21:02 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
CAD Looks Overvalued - TD
TD Securities says its analysis suggests that CAD became a little more over-valued relative to where it "should" trade vs USD in recent trading.
Dollar Rises on Widest U.S.-German Yield Spread Since 2007
LINK

Reserve Bank Of NZ Keeps Cash Rate Unch At 2.5%

Syd 20:36 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
NZD/USD unlikely to get any incentive from RBNZ's policy decision and statement this morning to move higher, says Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton; notes RBNZ decision at 0900 NZT this morning a line call between 25 bp cut and pause. "Even if the RBNZ decides to pause today, we doubt the central bank will signal that this is the end of the easing cycle." Plus says RBNZ will reiterate expectation of no hikes for at least next 12 months vs market pricing in some chance of hike before year end. "As such, we see scope for some downside in NZ interest rates and doubt today's RBNZ decision will provide any incentive to buy NZD."

Santorini Alexis 20:23 GMT June 10, 2009
As I can see you are too bullish USD :) Correct me if wrong! What do you see about EUR/GBP? Thanks FM.

GVI Forex john 20:21 GMT June 10, 2009

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

Lahore FM 20:14 GMT June 10, 2009
06/10/2009 20:12:26 FM Lahore 14

Sell snp 500+ audusd
Entry: 939.00/0.8031 Target: 850/0.7500* Stop: 948/0/8090*
sold both!
--
correction*

Lahore FM 20:12 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell snp 500+ audusd
Entry: 939.00/0.8031 Target: open Stop: 850/0.7500

sold both!

Santorini Alexis 20:11 GMT June 10, 2009
Any view on EUR/GBP? Has room to go down or?

GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT June 10, 2009

NEW! GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

Click for Complete Chart Points

Chop Choy land 19:17 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Galapagos 18:49 GMT June 9, 2009
Lepland & Maribor: Reply

1.4195 will hold for this week

g/l g/t

Galapagos 18:37 GMT June 9, 2009
Lepland & Maribor: Reply


Maribor 09:31 GMT June 9, 2009
EUR/USD: Reply
Lepland, my guess is EURUSD will rise ~3% before it will turn down...

Lepland 09:24 GMT June 9, 2009
EUR/USD: Reply

1.4080-1.4130 spike soon, stoploss cleaning mission and back to 1.3750 region before Thursday

Hillegom Purk 19:12 GMT June 10, 2009
What means Conest? Women?

On the forex side: cut tuesday out than, and make a bundle...
Cheers!
Eric

London SFH 19:06 GMT June 10, 2009
Pretty much E-apart from Africa and most of the middle east...entered a bachgammon conest in santorini, mid 90;s it was a nice place lots of blue sea and white walls..nice women too

Hillegom Purk 19:03 GMT June 10, 2009
You did Stephen? Have you been every where?

London SFH 18:57 GMT June 10, 2009
I have alex-thanks , once was great...

Santorini Alexis 18:55 GMT June 10, 2009
It's excellent! You should visit Santorini once at least!

London SFH 18:53 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
This week so far has been tough for me-good monday-terrible tuesday...Today was a day of range opportunities which worked well, managed to inprove averages!

Still short euro/$ short cable, short s&ps and short gold..

gl/gt all

Hillegom Purk 18:39 GMT June 10, 2009
Well FM, i like words that i do not know, but only once...

Lahore FM 18:36 GMT June 10, 2009
:)
Purk i am trying to close the topic but you looking to delve further into it?

GVI Forex john 18:35 GMT June 10, 2009
Purk- some pretty good ranges. closes off.

 		high	low	close	spread
nh		1.4110	1.3960	1.4010	0.0150
JM	 	1.4135	1.4000	1.4050	0.0135
Wall Street	1.4150	1.3980	1.4050	0.0170

London SFH 18:34 GMT June 10, 2009
means, pain in the butt-

Hillegom Purk 18:31 GMT June 10, 2009
What means Irksome?

Lahore FM 18:28 GMT June 10, 2009
it is not about religious sensibilities just sounds unecessarily flattering and the repitition makes it a bit heavy.

never mind.i don't know if i really sholuld have protested.

Amman wfakhoury 18:28 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
my last post is for Gooner London.

Amman wfakhoury 18:25 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
so..how is your trading today.

FW CS 18:24 GMT June 10, 2009
Lahore FM
Sorry did not know it was offending anyone. I am certainly not a 'pagan' it was meant as a joke since that person chose to use that name I thought it was appropriate.

Lahore FM 18:17 GMT June 10, 2009
Lahore FM 14:15 GMT June 10, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Sell snp 500
Entry: Target: Stop:

937.00 is the threshold between TARP 2.0 and no Tarp 2.0.
--
Tarp 2.0,as Zeus sugegsted,soon coming out!

Lahore FM 18:16 GMT June 10, 2009
CS,your pagan chant is irksome!

London Gooner 18:06 GMT June 10, 2009
London Gooner 19:09 GMT June 9, 2009
Yes. Cable 1.6258 needs print lower
------------------------------------------------
Resolved

Hillegom Purk 18:01 GMT June 10, 2009
Is santorini nice? Range for me is daily. Do not think longer than 1 day, actually i do not think even longer than a second...

Santorini Alexis 17:43 GMT June 10, 2009
Well, in 48 hours cable has made ~660 pips

Hillegom Purk 17:41 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Range of cable is "only" 200. With a bit of luck we will see 161 at the end of that range. Inshallah.

btw, anybody had the poll correct in e/u today?

Santorini Alexis 17:31 GMT June 10, 2009
I believe that if it gets there, there would be even more to come.

HK Kevin 17:30 GMT June 10, 2009
Santorini Alexis 16:57 GMT, 1.6220/30 seems a reasonable t/p of short GBP for the next few hrs.

Santorini Alexis 17:23 GMT June 10, 2009
Kevin, EUR/GBP seems to have started it's correction. GBP/JPY needs a clear break of 159.60

HK Kevin 17:21 GMT June 10, 2009
Santorini Alexis 16:57 GMT, we need help from both EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY. Would like to see both pairs back above 0.86 and below 156.50 level.

GENEVA DS 17:18 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Again... when will Obama and his crew abandon... STRONG USD-Policy... market will wake up then.... good luck to all

Santorini Alexis 16:57 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Let's see if we can get through 1.5990 on gbpusd. If this happens, then it would be a free fall... always imho

FW CS 16:14 GMT June 10, 2009
O mighty Zeus.
Stage 3 does make sense. But this time I do not think it will match in duration the one year period of stage 1. About every single commodity bull and lots of funds were slaughetred during theat clean up time

KL Ron 15:55 GMT June 10, 2009
agree with that jkt-aye, i am shorting at 98.18 as well, stop 98.89, should be able to see 97.20 again

Maribor 15:54 GMT June 10, 2009
AUDNZD forming top according to me(now 1,2765)...

jkt-aye 15:44 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell usdjpy
Entry: 98.20 Target: 97.20-96.75 Stop: 98.70

hope it works

jkt-aye 15:37 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
don't know if we can see gold toward 958.78.

Maribor 15:32 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
EURUSD: possible return to ~1,423...

GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT June 10, 2009
Data Preview…
Japanese GDP revision should be a non-event for the markets. Later, a poor employment report is expected from Australia. Weekly U.S. jobless claims are the most current read on employment. Retail Sales data are another key piece to the economic puzzle. Business inventories are a key to future growth as they continue to be drawn down. With oil spiking higher, natural gas supplies are a key component of the overall energy picture. Check out the two-week GVI Forex Economic Calendar .
THURSDAY:
Far East/Europe:
JA- 1Q09r - important- Revisions to earlier data. Note Japan GDP is annualized.
AU- Employment- very important- key measure of economy. Large Job loss seen.
North America:
US- Weekly Jobless Claims- very important- most current read on jobs. No improvement seen.
US- Retail Sales- very important- Key measure of domestic demand. Seen up slightly.
US- Business Inventories -important- indicator of future demand. Seen falling again.
US- Natural Gas Inventories- important- Key component of the energy complex.

Major Upcoming Releases:
Friday:
RBNZ Policy decision
US- University of Michigan Sentiment

ABHA FXS 15:01 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
GOLD
SELL 998.27 -986.26
BUY 924.38-912.37

ABHA FXS 14:56 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
DJI
SELL 8858-8757
BUY 8225-8125
http://4xabhafxs.blogspot.com/

USA ZEUS 14:53 GMT June 10, 2009
FW CS 14:24 GMT June 10, 2009

CS- Perhaps I should have offered stage 3 as optional. Stage 4 is a certainty however. Thought is that the big Ben spreaders will be dispensing USD's again to get home prices floored since prior efforts have failed. Commercial loans are going to start cracking more and more. Print, then print again until main street spending resumes (possible 3rd stage apex). Then, when they start spending, inflation will soar to levels that have never been seen in the US. Printing will further flood to no avail. Like Jim Rogers said- the Dow may go to 1,000,000 and still not be at a new all time high.

Melbourne Qindex 14:35 GMT June 10, 2009
EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

london carl 14:24 GMT : Thank you for your kind words. The market is very tricky for the last 48 hours.

Melbourne Qindex 14:32 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market may move further down to test the supporting strength of the barrier at 1.3950 // 1.3975.

Tokyo Tommy 14:28 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Buy USD/JPY
Entry: 98.14 Target: 98.80 Stop: 97.50

Back to 99

London Gooner 14:28 GMT June 10, 2009
Some serious people we never see in the media but have been spot on for many year are warning of EURUSD 2.0000+ in 2010.
It is either a hyperinflation or Obama shortlived administration or both with more economic collapse in all cases. Some numbers are clearly massaged at the moment hence the complete fundamental breakdown we witness in the charts.

london carl 14:24 GMT June 10, 2009
Qindex - excellent call today on euro - your levels were superb

FW CS 14:24 GMT June 10, 2009
O Mighty Zeus
During this 3rd stage will the $ be the winnner again due to forced liquidations? I think hyperinflation coming too but not sure about anoter round of deflation yet.

Melbourne Qindex 14:20 GMT June 10, 2009
Buy EUR/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/CAD: As shown in the monthly cycle charts speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.5537.

Melbourne Qindex 14:16 GMT June 10, 2009
Buy EUR/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/CAD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 1.5487. The short term targeting range is 1.5571 - 1.5614.

Lahore FM 14:15 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell snp 500
Entry: Target: Stop:

937.00 is the threshold between TARP 2.0 and no Tarp 2.0.

london carl 14:10 GMT June 10, 2009
ginko - closing my AUD at 8040 from 8120 - I dont see that much more downside. Good call earlier - well done

USA ZEUS 14:08 GMT June 10, 2009
First comes deflation met by heavy currency creation so tht it is short lived- Done.
Second comes mild inflation during the economic false recovery- Now
Third comes ultimate deflation. Fed tries old tactics but loses control and then gives up- coming
Fourth comes Hyperinflation- coming

Lahore FM 13:46 GMT June 10, 2009
much appreciated Maribor!

Lahore FM 13:45 GMT June 10, 2009
Lahore FM 11:50 GMT June 10, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Sell audusd
Entry: 0.8120 Target: Stop: 0.8162 bid

sold.
--
half out 0.8073.

Maribor 13:37 GMT June 10, 2009
Sentiment update: EURUSD, CHFUSD, GBPUSD are topping; USDJPY is forming strong bottom.

Jerusalem ML 13:37 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
OIL
Entry: Target: Stop:

Oil to 69 today

Go short.

GT

USA ZEUS 13:36 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Looks like the false positive is nearing an end.
Systemic risk talk will soon buzz anew.
TARP 2.0 is coming.

Happy Day!

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT June 10, 2009
Jay - or pink for really hot trades: scalps (i.e. those of less than one minute duration)

GVI Forex Jay 13:19 GMT June 10, 2009
Johnny (and others) - please use the trading template to post trade ideas. They will come out highlighted in yellow or brown depending on whether they are day or position trades.

london johnny 13:14 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Expect the Euro to become weaker over the next days so Shorting EUR/USD.

London Misha 13:03 GMT June 10, 2009
I was thinking it was a new pizza delivery system??

ldn 13:00 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:54 GMT June 10, 2009
Hopefully it will be Fakhouri and it will be aimed at Teheran....

Mtl JP 12:54 GMT June 10, 2009
what payload is supposed to be ON the missle RF@ ?

HK RF@ 12:50 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Russia says expecting new North Korea missile test
Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:25am ED

SEOUL (Reuters) - Russia has information on North Korean plans to launch a ballistic missile but does not know when it will take place, Interfax news agency quoted a senior Russian military source as saying on Wednesday.

The news comes as South Korea's defense minister said the North's recent moves were linked to leader Kim Jong-il's succession plans, and as world powers at the United Nations edged toward an agreement on how to punish Pyonyang.

GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT June 10, 2009
U.S. Trade

Lahore FM 12:34 GMT June 10, 2009
read entry as 1.0989 not 1.0980.

Lahore FM 12:33 GMT June 10, 2009
half of 1.0980 long out 1.1035.

Melbourne Qindex 11:54 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The following resistant ranges, 1.4135 - 1.4157 - 1.4172, are still holding good.



EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Analysis

Daily Cycle Projected Series (1.4085) : 1.3827* - 1.3875 - 1.3924* ... 1.3972 - 1.4021* - 1.4069 - 1.4093 // 1.4118* - 1.4142 - 1.4166 - 1.4190 - 1.4214* - 1.4239 - [1.4263] - 1.4287 - 1.4311* - 1.4336 - 1.4360 - 1.4384 - 1.4408* // 1.4432 - 1.4457 - 1.4505* - 1.4554 ...

Daily Cycle Congested Area : 1.3765 - (1.3931 - 1.4097 - 1.4263) - 1.4429 - 1.4595 - 1.4761

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is rejected by the barrier at 1.4093 // 1.4118*.

Neutral Range : 1.3744 - 1.4189 (Buy at low and sell at high is the preferred trading strategy when the market is trading within the the neutral range. A stop and reverse order can also be considered).

Upside Targeting Points : 1.4222 - 1.4265

Downside Targeting Points : 1.3847 - 1.3872

Lahore FM 11:52 GMT June 10, 2009
Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0989 Target: Stop: 1.0930

bought usdcad now.earlier half was stopped for minus 15 cumulative.

Lahore FM 11:50 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell audusd
Entry: 0.8120 Target: Stop: 0.8162 bid

sold.

--
erlier eurusd short 1.3080 was stopped at 1.3130 for minus 50

Maribor 11:48 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Boyz trying to put in a bag as much as possible GBPCHF & GBPNZD shorts,... Do not let them have it all, keep some shorts for yourself, it will pay...

GVI Forex john 11:47 GMT June 10, 2009
Survey Results
This is a sentiment survey, so the more who participate the better! Thanks to all!

The bias of the €/$ sentiment survey is about evenly split. Yesterday, it appears that the markets got stuck leaning the wrong way. Russia news released during the survey. Today sees an active event and data calendar.

Lows cluster: 1.4030-1.4050
Highs cluster: 1.4150-1.4180

high	low	close	spread		high	low
1.4110	1.3960	1.4010	0.0150		1.4110	1.3960
1.4135	1.4000	1.4050	0.0135		1.4135	1.3980
1.4150	1.3980	1.4050	0.0170		1.4135	1.3980
1.4135	1.3980	1.4080	0.0155		1.4150	1.4000
1.4180	1.4040	1.4110	0.0140		1.4155	1.4030
1.4155	1.4030	1.4115	0.0125		1.4165	1.4040
1.4165	1.4040	1.4115	0.0125		1.4180	1.4040
  SPOT = 1.4120
1.4210	1.4070	1.4150	0.0140		1.4180	1.4050
1.4200	1.4050	1.4200	0.0150		1.4200	1.4060
1.4218	1.4090	1.4200	0.0128		1.4210	1.4065
1.4180	1.4060	1.4110	0.0120		1.4218	1.4070
1.4355	1.4065	1.4295	0.0290		1.4355	1.4090
  AVERAGES >>
1.4172	1.4031	1.4119	0.0141	 		

GENEVA DS 11:43 GMT June 10, 2009

Entry: H14355 Target: L14065 Stop: C14295

Squeeze of shorts in euro to continue.... market short EUR !

nyc 11:41 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4180-1.4060-1.4110

GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT June 10, 2009
RUSSIA C.BANK TO REDUCE SHARE OF RESERVES INVESTED IN U.S. TREASURIES, BUY IMF BONDS

LA LA 11:31 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Alaam just went off. What is the news this time?

Wall Street 11:26 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4150-1.3980
1.4050

Brussels AK 11:25 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4210-1.4070-1.4150

houston st 11:22 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4180 - 1.4040 - 1.4110

San Diego bobl 11:22 GMT June 10, 2009
eur/usd...
h... 1.4218
l..... 1.4090
s.... 1.4200

gl/gt

Chicago SC 11:20 GMT June 10, 2009
1.3980-1.4135 1.4080

NYC JET 11:19 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4165-1.4040-1.4115

Livingston nh 11:08 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4110 - 1.3960 - 1.4010

London C 10:58 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4150-1.4025-1.4075

London SFH 10:54 GMT June 10, 2009

H 1.4200 L 1.4050 C 1.4200

NYC JM 10:52 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4135-1.4000-1.4050

Difficult call today as eur/usd lagging on upside (i.e. dollar downside) and needing a break of 1.4050-1.4150 to signal 1.40 or 1.42. Talk of stops below 1.4050.

GVI Forex john 10:51 GMT June 10, 2009
1.4155-1.4030 1.4115

GVI Forex Jay 10:48 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   

Entry: Daily EUR/USD Poll Target: Stop:

Time to make up for yesterday’s survey, which got it wrong as the sudden surge in the eur/usd caught the market wrong footed. Post your forecasts now!!!


Post your forecast for the EUR/USD range for the NY session start until today’s close and a line for your rationale.

Click on “reply” to post your forecast and keep it in the same thread

Please post you forecast in the following format:

High-low-close

Note poll closes at 11:45 GMT. This daily poll works best when you participate!

Los Angeles 10:42 GMT June 10, 2009
Thank you FM for your advise.

GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT June 10, 2009
U.S. calendar today now shaping up to be more significant than earlier thought.. Add to it 10-yr auction results at 17:00 GMT.

London Misha 10:41 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
EURUSD - Possible Morning Star formation on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Possible Evening Star formation on Daily Chart. Possible Golden Cross of the Short MA up through the Medium MA.
GBPUSD - Possible Morning Star fromation on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Dead Cross of the Medium MA down through Long MA. Possible Evening Star formation on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Long MA acting as resistance. Possible Evening Star formation on Daily Chart.
EURJPY - Possible Hammer formation on Daily Chart.
USDCAD - Possible Evening Star formation on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Morning Star Formation on Daily Chart.

Jerusalem ML 10:22 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

1.625 on gbp seems v plausible in the next 2-3 hours.
Before rebounding once again later tonite.

Oil to tackle 70 $
GL

Melbourne DC 10:21 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:37 GMT June 10, 2009
QIndex Trading System: Reply
Sell EUR/USD


IMPRESSIVE .

Melbourne Qindex 10:11 GMT June 10, 2009
EUR/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/AUD : The market is going to tackle the supporting range of 1.7280 - 1.7331.

tallinn viies 09:48 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
everrybody talking about 1 yard eurusd option expiry at 1,4200 today. should work as a magnet...
fwiw

GVI Forex john 09:39 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

Saiida Abb 09:39 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Buy eur/gbp
Entry: Target: open Stop: todaylow

eur/gbp must stabilise above 0.8630 to confirm it is up trend

Haifa ac 09:29 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
back to 150 and lower.
Should take a few months.

GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
The setup videos are a good place to start a discussion for the next day's trade so please feel free to comment after viewing them. Videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge AL.

Next day set-up videos. Be sure to Click on the today's link on the new video homepage for each video.

EUR/USD Video

GBP/USD Video

Jerusalem ML 09:12 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP

Seems like 6445 was a top , personally the next 24 hrs could see pound falling back towards 63 and even 6275

GT

tokyo ginko 08:57 GMT June 10, 2009
ok noted. Thank you..will watch stop manually..then.

ABHA FXS 08:47 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 138.28/90 Target: 131.26/129.95 Stop:

..

london carl 08:44 GMT June 10, 2009
ginko - please note 76.4% retrace of 8263-7826 is 8160. Perhaps worth adjusting your stop from 8152 to allow test of fibo. GLGT

Melbourne Qindex 08:37 GMT June 10, 2009
USD/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The market is testing the resistant range at 97.51 - 97.93. Basically the market is vibrating around 97.51 with an expected magnitude of 97.09 - 97.93.

Canada 08:33 GMT June 10, 2009
SL 161.60 TP 157.40 gbpjpy OK

ABHA FXS 08:31 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
http://4xabhafxs.blogspot.com/

Lahore FM 08:19 GMT June 10, 2009
Los Angeles,some of the things are best watched from the shore...

i had been expecting and unwind in stox but interestingly it never happened.still hold the view and watch it from outisde the ring.

you better watch gbpjpy and enter a short when you see your usual winner setup.

ABHA FXS 08:17 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 160.60/84 Target: 147.25/148.25 Stop:

..

Netherlands Bob 08:06 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   

EUR/USD is heavily minded to make blood to flood around 1.4350 area and cause massive imprisonment of forex traders ... remember, it's just 10th of the month ... patience or summer vacation in Guantanamo bay :)

tokyo ginko 07:54 GMT June 10, 2009
add 50% size to initial position AUD/USD 0.8114, stops remain at 0.8152 bid

ABHA FXS 07:47 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell AUDNZD
Entry: 1.2785 Target: 1.2436 Stop:

..

Munich peter 07:38 GMT June 10, 2009
Perrie, utter madness but it's just the continuation of a deeply rooted tradition in Hungary

Melbourne Qindex 07:37 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD
: The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the barrier at 1.4114 // 1.4138. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4067. The short term targeting point is 1.4020.

Syd 07:36 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Don't expect EUR/USD to climb much further, says Calyon. Pressure on European officials for tougher and more transparent bank stress tests, weak data, and poor chances for ECB rate hikes should all form a drag on the currency pair, despite recent gains, the bank says. Strong resistance is seen around recent highs at 1.43

And Goldman Sachs probably taking their cut after yesterdays buy order !!

Syd 07:24 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
While interest rate differentials, central bank reserve holdings and other clashing themes compete for dominance in the markets, direction will likely be lacking, with analysts and traders split between those looking for the euro to tumble against the dollar and those expecting a fresh surge.

Momentum in one direction or the other may come this weekend. If the meeting of the finance ministers from G8 nations produces signs of serious unease about the dollar's decline of late, the euro and other major currencies could take a beating.dj

Melbourne Qindex 07:22 GMT June 10, 2009
GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : My system will generate a positive signal for position traders when the market is able to trade above 1.6598 ... 1.6686*. On the other hand a negative signal will be hoisted when the market is below the range at 1.5447* ... 1.5536.

Melbourne Qindex 07:15 GMT June 10, 2009
GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.6663 - 1.6686. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to trade above 1.6697. In the mean time one can assume that a range trading is still intact when it is consolidating within 1.6049 - 1.6583. Buy on dips is the preferred trading strategy when the market is above the neutral zone at 1.6049 - 1.6067 - 1.6183. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.6003. Projected supporting points are located at 1.5795 - 1.5801 - 1.5823.


Trading Reference : ... 1.5703 - 1.5763 // 1.5823* - 1.5943 - 1.6063* - [1.6183] - 1.6303* - 1.6423 - 1.6543* // - 1.6603 - 1.6663 ...


Note : The market rhythm is represented by ~ 240 pips i.e. 1.6543* - 1.6303* = 0.0240, 1.6063* - 1.5823* = 0.0240.


The above projected series was governing the market movement for th last eight trading days. One can esily follow it until the market is above 1.6663 or below 1.5703.

Syd 07:06 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Aussie unemployment rate expected to have risen to 5.7% in May from 5.4% in April, Dow Jones poll of 15 economists shows; number of people employed expected 30,000 to 40.000 down, with forecasters think the May print will show clear negative turning point.

Melbourne Qindex 06:45 GMT June 10, 2009
EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is going to tackle the resistant range at 1.4135 - 1.4157 - 1.4172

ABHA FXS 06:36 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell AUDJPY
Entry: 79.13 Target: 72.55 - 71.40 Stop:

..

ABHA FXS 06:30 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Buy EURAUD
Entry: 1.7440 Target: 1.7937/1.8035 Stop:

...

ABHA FXS 06:28 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6501 Target: 1.5462/1.5264 Stop:

..

Syd 06:13 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
The Euro may see selling pressure as the final revision of Germany’s EU-harmonized consumer price index slips into negative territory for the first time since the creation of the single currency, threatening the Euro Zone’s largest economy and thereby the region as a whole with the prospect of deflation. dailyfx

tokyo ginko 05:57 GMT June 10, 2009
pls note I am not a day trader...

Syd 05:54 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded almost 1.5 U.S. cents this week amid renewed greenback weakness. But Kiwi charts remain bearish, flagging a sell on the rally.
The Kiwi dollar has bounced from Monday's low of $0.6148 Monday as sentiment for the U.S. currency turned negative with the evaporation of brief speculation that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this year.

At 0550 GMT Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar was quoted at $0.6327. But technicals suggest selling this rise, targeting $0.6088, then $0.5944 in coming days.Kiwi/dollar trading is thin as markets await a rate decision Thursday from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists are divided whether the central bank will pause or extend its aggressive rate cuts this time, although they agree the RBNZ isn't finished with its easing.

Seven of 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect a rate cut, while six expect the bank to keep its official cash rate at a record low 2.5%. Five expect a 25-basis-point cut and two forecast a 50-point cut.The daily Kiwi/dollar technical chart has a negative bias as the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, the latter falling from the overbought level. The five-day moving average has staged a bearish crossover against the 15-day moving average to generate a sell-kiwi signal.

The currency pair may target the May 26 reaction low of $0.6088, and then $0.5944 - the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the advance from the March 4 low of $0.4890 to the June 2 high of $0.6595 - in coming days.

tokyo ginko 05:39 GMT June 10, 2009
gbp/usd , prefer to sell on any uptick..like here is good 16340-50..am short myself

Como Perrie 05:24 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1089550.html

cad 05:02 GMT June 10, 2009
tokyo ginko ,pls advise gbpusd for today. audusd 8040/8090/8125

Como Perrie 05:02 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
While Geithner urges Europe and Japan to do their own Stress Tests as some arguing hidden losses in external balances sheets are bigger than those of US.

Has Accountancy become sort of lottery as some groups have grown so much that have become unmanagable

anything might be ..good times to take vacation as stress tests globally develop...so far the bigger the better seems It was a rather distorted view of globalisation at this point

Syd 04:52 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
According to a Reuters report a few days ago, and then another yesterday from ANZ’s head of commodity research, Mark Pervan, there are currently 80 bulk ships waiting off China to unload iron ore. That’s 10 per cent of the global Capesize vessel fleet.

LINK

tokyo ginko 04:50 GMT June 10, 2009
hi, when do you see 120.44,

3 mth? 6mth? 1 year? more than 1 year?

Thanks

CLEVELAND GREEN MANAGEMENT 04:45 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Buy UDJPY
Entry: Target: 12044 Stop: LEVERED

stops are on the high sider here with a 90 pip spread

Syd 04:36 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said Wednesday that the global recession will continue to put pressure on local employment, despite recent data showing the domestic economy is holding up well amid the global slowdown.

"What I do believe is the global recession will continue to put pressure on Australia, and most particularly it will put pressure on employment," Swan told reporters in Brisbane.

Santorini Alexis 04:18 GMT June 10, 2009
Thank you Maribor.

Como Perrie 04:18 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
***The Congressionally-appointed panel overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) recommends running again the stress tests on US banks, as economic conditions have worsened, its chair, Harvard University professor Elizabeth Warren, told CNBC Tuesday.***

***"We actually make recommendations to do it all over again right now," Warren told "Squawk Box."***

*****"We've already blown past the worst-case scenario on unemployment," she added.*****

CNBC

tokyo ginko 04:15 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Sell AUD/USD
Entry: Target: 0.7655 Stop: 0.8152 bid

sold AUD/USD 0.8043

Syd 04:05 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Australia's Department of Employment said Wednesday that its leading indicator of employment has fallen to a negative 0.765 in June from a negative 0.620 in May.

That was the 18th consecutive monthly fall, confirming a slowdown in the pace of employment growth below a long-term trend of 2.2% per annum.

The indicator measures four weighted time-series variables: ANZ newspaper job ads, Dun & Bradstreet employment expectations, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity survey, and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will issue May employment data Thursday. Economists expect the jobless rate to push out to 5.7% from 5.4% in April.

Syd 04:03 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
DJ Australian Leading Employment Indicator Falls In June

Maribor 03:47 GMT June 10, 2009
Alexis, it is proprietary calculation, so I will not reveal details. GBPUSD is topping and shall be sold on blips.

Santorini Alexis 03:44 GMT June 10, 2009
Maribor, can you please tell me how do you make your sentiment analysis? In addition, may I have your sentiment analysis (if any) for gbpusd? Thanks.

Maribor 03:36 GMT June 10, 2009
Some change in sentiment analysis result: USDJPY is showing strengh, => further fall may not happen => close shorts and start buying dips.
EURGBP and GBPCHF are showing clean strengh and weakness, respectively - act accordingly.
GBP is topping and will start weakening - best cross is sell GBPNZD.
NZD is still showing strengh, so NZDUSD, NZDCAD, NZDEUR are still good buys.

As I can not write about all crosses, close all other previously recomended positions as far as I can see are all showing profit.

Los Angeles 03:13 GMT June 10, 2009


Here is the chart on gbpjpy

Los Angeles 03:12 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
FM/Sydney, Based on the attached weekly chart on GBPJPY it is at the weekly resistance level 159.10 and what would be your prediction on this ? I have never been lucky on this pair so far..

Melbourne Qindex 02:46 GMT June 10, 2009
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : The bias is on the downside when the market is rejected from the barrier at 1.6332 // 1.6377.

Melbourne Qindex 02:42 GMT June 10, 2009
GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : The market has potential to move higher towards 1.6423 - 1.6543. The supporting range is 1.6183 - 1.6303.

Syd 02:24 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 02:21 many thanks probably hinges on the employment data tomorrow :-)) thanks

Syd 02:22 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
FX NOW! AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Flows - Housing finance not strong enough to offer further lift

Singapore Sfx 02:21 GMT June 10, 2009
Re Aud - well, personally unless support lvls break on the equities , still feel that the rally has some legs yet .. and that seems to me to translate into some aussie bullishness still to be exhausted .. think as long as 20 day avg cups the rise on a day close basis (7865 today and rising @ about 20 pips a day) - reckon we cud yet see 8360-8410 (61.8% fibo of the fall) ...

all bets off if the 20 day average gives way tho.

Syd 02:19 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Fitch downgrade of Malaysia's long term local-currency credit rating to A from A+ for 1st time since 1998 Asian financial crisis due to worsening public finances is negative for bonds, says DBS Research.

Syd 02:17 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Singapore Sfx thanks can you share you view on the aud

Singapore Sfx 02:15 GMT June 10, 2009
Good day syd ! And thanks for this - and all else here ..

Syd 02:15 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
While the euro is far below its 1.60 peak a year ago, Eurozone officials have become uncomfortable with levels above 1.40."

Syd 02:09 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   

Singapore Sfx good day , Standard & Poor's could downgrade India's sovereign rating if external liquidity conditions weaken further and the fiscal deficit worsens, reported Tuesday, citing a report by the ratings agency.
The Press Trust of India

Singapore Sfx 02:06 GMT June 10, 2009
Cud i know where you are seeing that please, Syd ?

Syd 02:03 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
Not everyone believes Australian green shoots are going to grow with TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher saying jump in consumer sentiment "is risking a house of cards as we all know GDP was better than expected due to an outsized slump in imports. Once the business recession is translated into significant job retrenchment, we expect this series to again retreat to sub-neutral." TD Securities holds view short end of Australian yield curve "will soon provide attractive entry levels". Expects 40,000 fall in May employment in data tomorrow, says this would "reconfirm the fragile nature of the economy."

China May CPI Down 1.4% On Year; Market Expected Down 1.3%

China May PPI Down 7.2% On Yr; Market Expected Down 6.8%

China May Food Prices Down 0.6% On Year

China May Non-Food Prices Down 1.7% On Year

Syd 01:55 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
S&P Could Downgrade India's Rtg If Liquidity Worsens - Report

KL Ron 00:59 GMT June 10, 2009
target reached, flat for now

KL Ron 17:33 GMT June 8, 2009
short usdjpy: Reply
Sell usdjpy
Entry: 98.35 Target: 97.19 Stop: 98.86

Syd 00:56 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY down as Japan exporters sell on a regular settlement day, says dealer at Japan bank. "Exporters had been waiting for a long time for the spot to reach the 99 level, but since that wasn't reached, they have no choice but to sell around here." Tips support for USD/JPY at 96.80 vs last 97.31, adding "I think the 97 level will be broken once or twice" during Tokyo trade. Says EUR/JPY support likely around 136.00 vs 136.86.

Melbourne Qindex 00:53 GMT June 10, 2009
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Daily Cycle Analysis

Daily Cycle Projected Series (954.6) : 926.8* - 932.3 - 937.9* ... 943.5 - 949.0* - 954.6 - 957.4 // 960.2* - 963.0 - 965.7 - 968.5 - 971.3* - 974.1 - [976.9] - 979.7 - 982.4* - 985.2 - 988.0 - 990.8 - 993.6* // 996.4 - 999.1 - 1004.7* - 1010.3 ...

Daily Cycle Congested Area : 919.6 - (938.7 - 957.9 - 976.9) - 996.1 - 1015.3 - 1034.4


Neutral Range : 903.6 - 969.8 (Buy at low and sell at high is the preferred trading strategy when the market is trading within the the neutral range. A stop and reverse order can also be considered).

Upside Targeting Points : 961.6 - 963.2

Downside Targeting Points : 936.3 - 939.3

Syd 00:35 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
New Zealand's terms of trade fell in the first quarter, driven by the largest drop in export prices in over 50 years and adding to an already weak economic outlook, official data released Wednesday showed.

Syd 00:11 GMT June 10, 2009 Reply   
"Outsized slump" in NZ terms of trade, imports "confirm a business sector still in distress, where lower cash rates and a lower NZD are vital to help cushion the blow," says TD Securities Senior Strategist Annette Beacher expects terms of trade to collapse further "denting farm and business incomes for at least another 6-9 months." Says all business sector risks skewed to downside; "we await decisive action from the RBNZ on Thursday."