Forex Forum Archive for 07/11/2009

GVI Forex Blog 21:43 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   
Interesting read:

Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?

sofia kaprikorn 20:13 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   


interesting seasonality pattern -- seems it is a time of change with huge correction down in the works

Stockholm za 20:03 GMT July 11, 2009

tokyo ginko >> Appreciated!!
The funny thing about this thread is there has been so many respond to it but only one constructive contribution/critics/question, concerning the content of the original post, [am I right or wrong?]. More time was spent trying to dismantle the illusive cyber personality behind the post instead, thus shifting the bias to an un-educational scenario, where the added contributors status & capacity is on showcase?

In that example we switch from a financial to a spatial metaphor.
The Assumption - "The coin is slightly biased, however, and comes up heads 49.5 percent of the time and tails 50.5 percent." Was done to reflect what we as traders encounter every time we trade. Whether we know it or not.
It’s you vs. your broker & the market.

Example a signal is given: Buy EUR/USD at 1.3968 Target 1.3998 Stop 1.3938 your broker spread is 5 pips.
From a trader stand point at first look, this is a very good trade with a 1:1 ratio,
However with careful examination it reveals hidden cost properties thus making it questionable... from the time you enter that trade without the market moving 1pip you are at a dis advantage to your broker and the market, the first person that wins is your broker, then you are left with a fight between you and the market, at this moment you need 35 pips for your target, and the market need only 25 pips to get you out. Clearly it is the market that has the better probability ratio at this moment.
From the broker stand point he does not care ,for he always take his win from you of the table immediately even before the coin is flip. After that his statistic will show that you only have a 41.7% while the market has a 58.3% advantage probability of achieving its target. Thus the slight bias on the coin.
The main backbone of such so call 1:1 ratio strategy for success in the market is that it MUST at all time maintain a 2:1 win/lost ratio to survive. For it is not optimize for a losing streak. Etc.etc.
An un-bias coin could keep you on that stair case T (time) going to infinity. And To make any guaranty of reaching the top a 2:1 win/lost ratio will also be needed. This un-biasness translated into the example above means that your broker spread should be zero, making the 1:1 RR real/realistic and un-bias.
We can go on & on, however I hope this short general exp help.
Happy trades to you. & i stand corrected.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:56 GMT July 11, 2009
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold: Daily Cycle Quantum Levels (913.0) : Weekly References


(1) 838.8 - 848.7 - 858.6 - 868.5 // 878.4* - 888.3 - 898.2 - 908.1* // 918.0 - 927.9 - 937.8 - 947.7


(2) 848.8 - 859.5 - 870.2 - 880.8 // 891.5* - 902.2 - 912.8 - 923.5* // 934.2 -944.8 - 955.5 - 966.2


(3) 861.6 - 870.0 - 878.4 - 886.9 // 895.3* - 903.7 - 912.2 - 920.6* // 929.0 - 937.5 - 945.9 - 954.3


Remarks : The supporting range is 868.5 - 895.3 and the resistant range is 908.1 - 934.2. Sell in the resistant range and buy at supporting range is the preferred trading strategy.


Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html

Global-view careers 12:03 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   
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For example searching for keyword "bank", yields 22,556 job offers. Chances are... one or more might be a match.

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OR register for job alerts.

Tonbridge AL 09:29 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   
SETUP VIDEOS EUR/USD and GBP/USD --VIEW THEM NOW
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day (videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge Al). Click on the Friday link on the new video homepage for each video to view Monday's setup. All other daily links work so you can also review the past week's drama as well.

EUR/USD Video  
GBP/USD Video

HK RF@ 08:51 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   
I remember few months ago all those pundits on Bloomberg and CNBC whom were high on economic recovery by the 2nd half of 2009, which by now seems not to be the case.

Many of them were predicting a weaker and weaker yen, and can't forget that fellow repeatedly heard on TV...There is one currency I don't want to own ,It is called YEN!!!!!

Now seems that things begins to bias for a stronger and stronger USD towards the end of this year.

That may be the next bandwagon case to watch for.

GL/GT

Ahlen (DE) Manfred 08:01 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   

Dollar to Rise Most Since 1981, Best Predictor Says

Ahlen (DE) Manfred 07:48 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   

for the full report click here


USD bear:

Robert Minikin, a Standard Chartered Plc currency strategist in London, said forecasting is difficult because governments are committing record sums to battle the recession.

“There’s profound uncertainty about the impact of the non- conventional measures,” on foreign-exchange markets, Minikin said. “It’ll be difficult” for policy makers “to unwind what they’ve done,” he said. There will be “heavy downward pressure” pushing the dollar to $1.55 per euro by year-end, he added.


USD bull:

“You don’t have to bet on the recovery to be bullish on the dollar,” said Christoph Kind, who manages $20 billion as head of asset allocation in Frankfurt at Frankfurt-Trust Investment GmbH. “If the situation stays as bad as it is, the dollar is a safe haven. And if the economy turns the corner, the U.S. will be the first to get out of the recession. On that basis, the dollar looks like a good investment. We are buying the dollar against the yen and the euro.”


personal opinion:

USD bulls has voices at amounts as USD bears had exactly one year ago. then USD rallied.

Hillegom Purk 07:42 GMT July 11, 2009
Amen. thank my for that. who else can i nag on to?

tokyo ginko 00:28 GMT July 11, 2009
why this assumption?

"The coin is slightly biased, however, and comes up heads 49.5 percent of the time and tails 50.5 percent."

Syd 00:09 GMT July 11, 2009 Reply   
Bloomberg reports that the German magazine Handelsblatt reported today that the IMF is discussing new aid packages with 10 or more Eastern European governments. Is this the first echo of all the potential CEE exposure problems that got so much attention last year before the theme vaporized for the last few months, obscured by the blind risk willingness in the market? This is a story worth following. Apparently, at least three nations are applying for aid from the IMF for the first time, including Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia. IMF officials were also cited as saying that some of the least financially stable countries in the region were desperately looking for an acceleration and/or increase of promised funding.
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