Forex Forum Archive for 10/04/2010

Lahore FM 23:50 GMT October 4, 2010
Sell EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

closed half of late friday eurgbp shorts.placed entry sl for remainder at 0.8712.

Syd 23:14 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Currency strategists at BNP Paribas warned that the euro's rally so far is "self-defeating" and the currency will be exposed to weakening trend later this year due to deflation risks within the E.U.'s Economic and Monetary Union.LINK
Speculative Positions Flip to Net Long Euros and British Pounds
LINK

World's powers must head off threat of currency war
The call from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) comes as finance ministers and central bankers prepare to descend on Washington DC for the annual meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund against a backdrop of rising tensions over foreign-exchange policy. LINK

Lahore FM 22:50 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3680 Target: 1.3820/1.3940 Stop: 1.3585*

here a correction* too!

long now.

Lahore FM 22:36 GMT October 4, 2010

Entry: correction* Target: Stop:

1.3620 from 1.3662*.

Lahore FM 22:35 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3680 Target: 1.3820/1.3940 Stop: 1.3685

long now.

--
lowered emtry price for an earlier order to 1.3620 from 1.3262.stops will be placed later for this long order.

sofia kaprikorn 22:33 GMT October 4, 2010
sofia kaprikorn 22:10 GMT October 4, 2010
Long USD/JPY 83.24
_ _ _
added Long 1/3 USD/JPY 83.35
_ _ _
added Long 1/4 USD/JPY 83.47

Syd 22:32 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Activity in Australia's services sector weakened further in September, with softness seen in communication and finance & insurance sectors, according to an industry survey published Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Australian Performance of Services Index fell 1.9 points in the month to 45.6. A reading below 50 points indicates a contraction in activity.

Mtl JP 22:31 GMT October 4, 2010
infinite capacity to disappoint..... infinite capacity to punish
or infinite capacity to reward. ... like that gold miner in Louis L' Amour's novel: is it worth going in that cave for one ingot at risk being being burried alive. what a lure !

sofia kaprikorn 22:10 GMT October 4, 2010
sofia kaprikorn 19:50 GMT October 3, 2010
Long USD/JPY 83.24
_ _ _
added Long 1/3 USD/JPY 83.35

Chicago cs 22:01 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Looking for a level to sell against, but I'm nervous about putting in an offer too early. BOJ has an infinite capacity to disappoint.

Will have to think about this for a bit, but thinking about selling just above 84.00 with a stop above 84.30 and a target of 83.50.

Syd 21:49 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
AUD/USD likely to mark time ahead of RBA policy meeting outcome. Greg Gibbs, FX strategist at RBS, says pair looking long, could be at risk of a sharp pull back if the RBA does not hike as expected. Sees potential for a retreat of as much as one U.S. cent on no hike. But if rates are hiked, then a test of recent highs above 0.9700 is on the cards. But adds upside moves now likely to struggle with net long positioning at high levels, while expectations of U.S. quantitative easing now built into positioning.

GVI Forex Blog 21:44 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Canada's dollar faltered against the U.S. currency on Monday with the Canadian currency getting weighed down by weak equity prices and the greenback getting a lift as the euro slid on concerns about

Forex Market News - Canada's dollar faltered against

Syd 21:38 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
A leading economist has warned the Reserve Bank might be jumping at shadows if it increases the official interest rate on Tuesday.LINK

NZD/USD Starting To Look Overstretched - BNZ
NZD/USD starting to look overstretched, says BNZ Strategist Mike Jones; "For the first time since November last year, the NZD/USD is above the 'fair-value' range implied by our short-term valuation model of 0.7200-0.7400."

NZ Institute of Economic Research's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the economic recovery is stumbling. "The economy is going backwards," says NZIER principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub. Adds data suggest economy is very weak, point to rising probability of double-dip recession. 3Q actual result shows net 6% of firms expect conditions to improve over next 6 months vs 18% expecting improvement in 2Q. Eaqub says disappointed by weakness of data; "The forward indicators are not looking positive."

GVI Forex john 21:22 GMT October 4, 2010
Market Event- BOJ Decision @ No Announcement Time
Bank of Japan Meeting on Tuesday Quick Japan Profile in Charts

1) CPI (yr/yr) has remained sub-zero for sustained time period. This is below the 0% inflation target floor and thus REQUIRES action. More quantitative ease is likely.
2) Japanese manufacturing PMI fell below 50 to 49.5 (contraction in September).
3) See latest Tankan Survey, 3Q10 data is current. Note that 4Q10 figures are a PROJECTION of what will come out for 4Q10. NEGATIVE
4) Interest rate policy seen steady with the overnight target rate already virtually at zero,
5) In term interest rate table, note that the 10-yr JGB rate has fallen from 1.40%+ to below 1.00% since March. Talk that the PBOC has been buying JPY and JGBs.


In short, just about all the charts on this page look negative. When you look at the economic profile of Japan alone, it is hard to see why the currency is in demand? Any ideas?

GVI Forex john 21:19 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Early Week Calendar by Lloyds TSB

GVI Forex john 21:17 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Event @3:30 GMT- RBA decision

GVI Preview-
Ahead of the RBA policy meeting this week on Tuesday. Quick Australia Profile in Charts .

1) CPI (headline on the upswing), but core measures easing.
2) Australian manufacturing PMI has broken below 50 (contraction).
3) Jobs data remain constructive on the economy.
4) Benchmark 10-yr gilt yield has fallen to below 5.00% from about 4.80% in March.
5) Opinions favor an RBA hike. We feel they could hold steady. The RBA might be facing a slowing economy.

Any thoughts about the AUD or RBA would be appreciated.

GVI Forex john 21:14 GMT October 4, 2010
Australia Market Event @ 0:30 GMT
Retail Sales

Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.


Merchandise Trade

Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.

IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.

Philadelphia Caba 21:14 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.9717 Target: Stop: 0.9685

with t/p back above parity

GVI Forex john 21:07 GMT October 4, 2010
DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey of a broad range of markets.

GVI Forex Blog 20:52 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   

Euro Weakness Could Mean Risk is Off Today; Stocks Flat to Lower

GVI Forex Blog 20:51 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   

Euro in Position to Post Daily Reversal Top; Setting up for Correction

Syd 20:51 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Art Cashin: Markets Could See 'a Real Reversal'
Cashin said 1,150 to 1,160 is going to be the “key resistance area” on the S&P 500. “And if they try one more time and fail, we could get a real reversal,” he said. “The dollar rallied a bit this morning, put some pressure on gold and U.S. futures, and the terrorism [alert in Europe] is going to be watched carefully.” LINK

Talk of High Profile US investment bank selling Aud overnight before RBA. Dealers see hike 50/50

For a technical look at the markets, Nick Batsford, managing director of Bos Asset Management, joined CNBC for the European closing bell.Talking Technical

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT October 4, 2010
MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

MVA	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
TRENDS:					
short 5-20 Up	 Down	Down	Up	Down
med 20-50  Up	 Down	Down	Up	Down
long 50-200Down Down	Down	Up	Down

5 day	1.3661	83.55	0.9764	1.5790	1.0268
10 day	1.3521	84.02	0.9820	1.5759	1.0278
20 day	1.3214	84.30	0.9954	1.5629	1.0297
50 day	1.3034	85.05	1.0211	1.5625	1.0359
100 day	1.2727	87.39	1.0641	1.5233	1.0403
200 day	1.3197	89.46	1.0638	1.5362	1.0361


MVA	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
TRENDS:				
short 5-20  Up	 Up	Up	Up	Up
med 20-50   Down Up	Down	Up	Down
long 50-200 Down Down	Down	Up	Down
5 day	0.8650	114.14	1.3340	0.9684	131.92
10 day	0.8578	113.59	1.3278	0.9620	132.39
20 day	0.8452	111.38	1.3150	0.9464	131.74
50 day	0.8339	110.85	1.3307	0.9196	132.89
100 day	0.8353	111.12	1.3525	0.8879	133.00
200 day	0.8587	118.12	1.4026	0.8978	137.40

GVI Forex Blog 20:38 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
20:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 4- It seems the markets went on hold early Monday as the EUR fell against most of the key trading currencies. The apparent lack of market participation suggests to us that dealers have simply stepped aside and allowed the markets to trade. Our point is that the USD downswing could resume at any time if the conditions are ripe.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Temporary USD Respite?

GVI Forex Blog 20:34 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The euro on Monday fell from its highest level versus the dollar in more than six months amid renewed concerns about the financial viability of euro zone banks, prompting investors to cut overly bullish bets on the euro.

FOREX NEWS - Euro rally pauses, but uptrend vs dollar intact

GVI Forex john 20:34 GMT October 4, 2010
GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading Resources...

GVI Forex Blog 20:31 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
A relatively quiet data day with Australia on holiday yesterday. Headlines were negative on Europe and for a change actually weighed on the euro. EUR/USD gave up all of Friday's gains ending just below 1.3700, down 0.8% from Friday's close.

Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT October 4, 2010
LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.3884	84.45	0.9856	1.6003	1.0317
Res 2	1.3838	84.15	0.9822	1.5936	1.0280
Res 1	1.3760	83.78	0.9772	1.5883	1.0252
					
Pivot	1.3714	83.48	0.9738	1.5816	1.0215
					
Sup 1	1.3636	83.11	0.9688	1.5763	1.0187
Sup 2	1.3590	82.81	0.9654	1.5696	1.0150
Sup 3	1.3512	82.44	0.9604	1.5643	1.0122

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
Res 3	0.8797	116.51	1.3584	0.9788	133.74
Res 2	0.8762	115.89	1.3524	0.9758	133.06
Res 1	0.8702	115.01	1.3414	0.9713	132.54
		
Pivot	0.8667	114.39	1.3354	0.9683	131.86
		
Sup 1	0.8607	113.51	1.3244	0.9638	131.34
Sup 2	0.8572	112.89	1.3184	0.9608	130.66
Sup 3	0.8512	112.01	1.3074	0.9563	130.14

GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Monday (10/04/2010) has made a substantial bearish retracement on the heels of dramatic bullishness last week.

EUR/USD Down But Not Quite Out

GVI Forex john 20:17 GMT October 4, 2010
DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A large selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT October 4, 2010
FX DATABASE
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Free FX Database updated. Summary table of a broad range of major markets.

PAR 19:34 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
04 Oct 2010 20:31 BST DJ MARKET TALK: Euro Retraces As Periphery Concerns Weigh


1931 GMT [Dow Jones] The euro fell against the dollar Mon as the cumulative effect of worrisome news concerning the euro zone dragged the common currency down from its recent 6 1/2-month highs versus the greenback. The euro faced headwinds after more details on the extent of Ireland's budget deficit surfaced over the weekend. The ECB also announced new government bond purchases Monday to help up prop up periphery countries, further solidifying some of the negative sentiment. The dollar is still hovering above post-intervention low of Y83.15. Monday afternoon, the euro is at $1.3677 from $1.3784 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar is at Y83.38 from Y83.32, while the U.K. was at $1.5828 from $1.5841.

PAR 19:27 GMT October 4, 2010
PPT on "Red Alert.

dc CB 19:15 GMT October 4, 2010
Today's Flash Crash......

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/todays-flash-crash-century-aluminum-stunningly-not-brought-you-waddell-reed

GVI Forex john 19:11 GMT October 4, 2010
DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

PAR 18:52 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
(CBS/AP) A U.S. missile killed five German militants sheltering in a house in northwest Pakistan on Monday, intelligence officials said.

The attack hit a house in North Waziristan. That region has been named as the source of a European terror plot that has prompted American authorities to issue a travel advisory.

One or more German citizens are reported to be linked to the plot.

The missile strike took place in the town of Mir Ali, a known hub for foreign militants with links to al Qaeda.

London SFH 18:40 GMT October 4, 2010
Par..;especially after the best September since 1939 .. .;I hope you dont mind me asking..But how old are you dude?

PAR 18:35 GMT October 4, 2010
New Terror Alert hurting stocks worlwide. If the terror alert is for Europe, you can almost be certain that the actual terror atack will happen somewhere else. October always reminds me of the crash of 1987, especially after the best September since 1939 .. .

Gen dk 17:39 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 16:56 GMT October 4, 2010
Strange day. Looks to me like the market is short USD and HOPING to ride out this consolidation.

GVI Forex Blog 16:37 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
EUR/CHF (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Monday (10/04/2010) has made a bearish retracement after about a week of generally bullish price action

EUR/CHF Bearish Retracement Within Uptrend

Ormond FL AG 16:31 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5852 Target: 1.5587 Stop: 1.5929

first target 1.5587 and then 1.5334. Stop at 1.5929

RIYADH RUH-DMM-RUH 16:26 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Euro heading to 13614-13598
This area is a good buy.

jerusalem kb 16:19 GMT October 4, 2010
closed half with 30pips+ and sl to break even

GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Ahead of the Bank of Japan Meeting on Tuesday Quick Japan Profile in Charts

1) CPI (yr/yr) has remained sub-zero for sustained time period. This is below the 0% inflation target floor and thus REQUIRES action. More quantitative ease is likely.
2) Japanese manufacturing PMI fell below 50 to 49.5 (contraction in September).
3) See latest Tankan Survey, 3Q10 data is current. Note that 4Q10 figures are a PROJECTION of what will come out for 4Q10. NEGATIVE
4) Interest rate policy seen steady with the overnight target rate already virtually at zero,
5) In term interest rate table, note that the 10-yr JGB rate has fallen from 1.40%+ to below 1.00% since March. Talk that the PBOC has been buying JPY and JGBs.


In short, just about all the charts on this page look negative. When you look at the economic profile of Japan alone, it is hard to see why the currency is in demand? Any ideas?

GVI Forex john 16:16 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Ahead of the RBA policy meeting this week on Tuesday. Quick Australia Profile in Charts .

1) CPI (headline on the upswing), but core measures easing.
2) Australian manufacturing PMI has broken below 50 (contraction).
3) Jobs data remain constructive on the economy.
4) Benchmark 10-yr gilt yield has fallen to below 5.00% from about 4.80% in March.
5) Opinions favor an RBA hike. We feel they could hold steady. The RBA might be facing a slowing economy.

Any thoughts about the AUD or RBA would be appreciated.

berne ds 16:08 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
most algo traders will be long tonight in eurusd and eurchf, wrong again...another 600 pips ready to the downside,, nobody believes me , i know,,, sell aud usd for 9400 as expected 2 weeks ago,,, ceiling hit at 9700. gl gt

hk ooozmeeh 15:54 GMT October 4, 2010
sell again gold ag 1315

GVI Forex Blog 15:48 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The USD posted a mixed performance during the NY morning following the release of the 2011 Greek draft budget as the targeted 2011 Greek deficit-to-GDP ratio came in at 7.0% and below the planned IMF/EU suggestion of 7.6%.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Cambridge Joe 15:43 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
All closed out.
Down -88 on the day....
should have stayed in bed....

hk ooozmeeh 15:13 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1314.50 Target: 1290 Stop: 1321

sell gold at 1314.50

GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Oct 4 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Australian retail sales, trade and the RBA policy decision. A Bank of Japan policy decision is due as well. In Europe,

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for Oct 5, 2010

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR
Entry: Target: Stop:

GVI Forex Blog 14:45 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The short position against the US dollar has grown to levels not seen since mid-2008. To make sure you’re up to speed, that was just before credit dried up and risk appetite was crushed. Should ...

A One-Way Bet?

Porto Cubriclas 14:26 GMT October 4, 2010
Euro weakness might help BOJ...
gt & gl

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT October 4, 2010


ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pending homes sales (+4.3%) suggest better existing Homes sales data...

GVI Forex Blog 14:09 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   

Euro Weakness Could Mean Risk is Off Today; Stocks Flat to Lower

GVI Forex Blog 14:08 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   

Nobel Winner Warns Economic Woes Could Endanger Euro

Wall Street 13:49 GMT October 4, 2010
BR- agree also I understand this report has a lot of benchmark revisions which can confuse things.

Dubai SAS 13:49 GMT October 4, 2010
Dubai SAS 08:59 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy EURUSD : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3675 Target: Open Stop: 1.3630

Bot now ...

Order working to buy half more @ 1.3655 with the same stop .. GL

Out @ 1.3719 for + 44 .. limit order cxld

Dubai SAS 13:49 GMT October 4, 2010
Dubai SAS 08:59 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy EURUSD : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3675 Target: Open Stop: 1.3630

Bot now ...

Order working to buy half more @ 1.3655 with the same stop .. GL

Out @ 1.3719 for + 44 .. limit order cxld

Boston BR 13:42 GMT October 4, 2010
The nfp # only matters if it affects Fed policy or public sentiment ahead of the midterm elections. It will not affect the general feeling on the economy which feels like a recession no matter what the data shows. Fed is looking for reasons for another round of quantitative easing.

GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Trading Events Calendar updated. Scheduled market-moving items.

dc CB 13:34 GMT October 4, 2010
should read.....

How will this effect the "always revised later" number that will be released.

dc CB 13:32 GMT October 4, 2010
Food for thought.

Friday's Employment report will be the last before the Nov elections. How will the effect the "always revised later" number that will be released.

Keeping with the election theme and the viscious - anything but discuss the real issues - type of campaigning that will appear in the media this month. What is the deal with the Terror Alert. T/F?

GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT October 4, 2010
ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:

Early Week Calendar by Lloyds TSB

Lahore FM 13:19 GMT October 4, 2010
thanx Kal,noted about gbpusd.i though favour directly higher.

hk ooozmeeh 13:02 GMT October 4, 2010
hk ooozmeeh 14:35 GMT October 1, 2010
gold : Reply
sell gold again 1318

hk ooozmeeh 14:22 GMT October 1, 2010
gold : Reply
setting up a risk stop @ 1326

hk ooozmeeh 14:19 GMT October 1, 2010
gold : Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1320 Target: Stop:

sell gold 1320

....profit taken at 1314.50...

manila tom 13:00 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
usdjpy looks heavy, try some short here 83.32, stop above 83.88, target 81.50-70

GVI Forex Blog 12:59 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Fed's Dudley sees more easing EUR gives back some recent gains Mixed sentiment at BoE Swiss call on banks to boost capital

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (4 October 2010)

GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT October 4, 2010
CALENDAR ITEM PREVIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Market Event @ 14:00 GMT
Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders

Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.


Pending Homes Sales
The Pending Homes sales index is produced monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.

hk ooozmeeh 12:54 GMT October 4, 2010
hk ooozmeeh 09:34 GMT October 1, 2010
eurusd : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3745 Target: Stop:

sell euro

hk ooozmeeh 09:26 GMT October 1, 2010
EURO: Reply
SELL euro 1.3736

...took profit now @ 1.3690

tokyo rana 12:41 GMT October 4, 2010
i said gbp and aud long today....

tokyo rana 12:39 GMT October 4, 2010
London ex 12:34 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,sorry correction....my guess usdjpy not go below 83.10/15 today...ican be wrong....im long also lets see...happy day,

tokyo rana 12:38 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 83.35 Target: 83.80/84.35 Stop: later

London ex 12:34 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,my guess usdjpy not below 83.10/15 today...ican be wrong....im long also lets see...happy day,

London ex 12:34 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 83.15 Target: 83.50? Stop: 82.90

Scalp. Probably won't get filled. Worried about my stop. Order expires in one hour.

GVI Forex Blog 12:23 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss touched a high of 0.9790, followed by a dip towards 0.9700 in the European session today.

FX Thoughts for the day : 04-Oct-2010 - 1220 GMT

PAR 12:01 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
04 Oct 2010 12:56 BST DJ Europe On Alert After Terrorist Attacks Warning


PARIS (AFP)--Japan Monday became the latest country after Britain and the United States to issue a travel alert for its citizens amid growing fears of a major Al-Qaeda attack on landmark sites in Europe.

Tokyo joined Washington and London in issuing an alert warning of "possible terrorist attack" by Al-Qaeda and affiliated groups against their citizens travelling in Europe.

The U.S. State Department said in its alert Sunday that attackers may use "a variety of means and weapons and target both official and private interests" in Europe.

Britain immediately backed the U.S. alert and warned its own citizens of a "high threat of terrorism" in France and Germany.

The Japanese alert urges its citizens living or travelling in Europe to exercise full caution at possible attack targets, such as government and police facilities, public transport systems and tourist spots.

U.S. channel Fox News, citing unnamed intelligence officials, said militants had a list of targets in France and Germany, including Paris's Eiffel Tower and Notre Dame Cathedral, Berlin's Brandenburg Gate, the city's central railway station and the Alexanderplatz TV tower.

Fox cited a senior western intelligence official as saying that the information about the target list was provided by "a German-Pakistani national interrogated at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan."

jerusalem kb 11:49 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3710 Target: 1.3625 Stop: 1.3760

sold

GVI Forex john 11:46 GMT October 4, 2010
- EURUSD being pulled higher by improving S&P futures.

GVI Forex john 11:20 GMT October 4, 2010
DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey of a broad range of markets.

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT October 4, 2010
DATA
Entry: Target: Stop:

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A large selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

Mtl JP 11:03 GMT October 4, 2010
re "Not sure what to do with this": means competitive currency devaluations war is either on pause or not on yet.

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT October 4, 2010
WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

GVI Forex Blog 11:00 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The dollar rose on Monday, recovering earlier losses as traders cut bets the currency will weaken, which have been piling up on speculation the Federal Reserve may further ease U.S. monetary easing.

FOREX NEWS - Dollar edges up as bets on weakness look crowded

GVI Forex john 10:56 GMT October 4, 2010
OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Not sure what to do with this, but EUR weaker in virtually every key relationship. Note change signs...

	Last	chg	high	low
EURUSD=	1.3691	-86 	1.3791	1.3667
EURJPY=	114.04	-71 	115.27	113.77
EURCHF=	1.3315	-120 	1.3465	1.3295
EURGBP=	0.8650	-49 	0.8726	0.8646
EURAUD=	1.4152	-6 	1.4206	1.4146
EURCAD=	1.3988	-63 	1.4062	1.3984
EURNZD=	1.8467	-18 	1.8547	1.8437

Cambridge Joe 10:28 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Just shorted GBPAUD for 2nd time .

Hoping to just pick up 25... 30 pips.

Have a good day !

GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT October 4, 2010
GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading Resources...

GVI Forex Blog 10:03 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The USD managed to find some support against the European pairs in early trading. The weekend press articles concerning Ireland budget coupled with Economist Stiglitz warning that the future of the Euro was 'looking bleak' and might not survive provided an excuse for retracement from recent weeks trends.

European Market Update: Price action succumbs to profit-taking mode ahead of key interest rate decisions and US employment situation later this week (TTN)

GVI Forex john 09:59 GMT October 4, 2010
MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

New Addition to Chart Points Table three momentum measures (short-. medium- and long-term) trends.

Im not a big proponent of momentum trading most of the time, but I think if you are considering trading against a price move, you should be aware if you are trading against a strong momentum move. There are adages about "trying to catch a falling knife" or "spitting into the wind"...

Addiional thoughts, suggestions encouraged...

Mva           EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
TRENDS:					
Short 5-20	Up	Down	Down	Up	Down
Med 20-50	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down
Long 50-200	Down	Down	Down	Up	Down

5 day	        1.3618	83.71	0.9788	1.5794	1.0279
10 day	        1.3459	84.26	0.9852	1.5731	1.0284
20 day	        1.3174	84.35	0.9976	1.5610	1.0305
50 day	        1.3019	85.13	1.0227	1.5616	1.0362
100 day	        1.2714	87.47	1.0657	1.5221	1.0404
200 day	        1.3201	89.51	1.0642	1.5363	1.0362



MVA		EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD	GBP/JPY
TRENDS:					 
Short 5-20	Up      Up	Up	Up	Up
Med 20-50	Up	Up	Down	Up	Down
Long 50-200	Down	Down	Down	Up	Down

5 day	        0.8620	113.99	1.3331	0.9674	132.21
10 day	        0.8554	113.38	1.3261	0.9600	132.52
20 day	        0.8436	111.11	1.3140	0.9439	131.66
50 day	        0.8334	110.82	1.3313	0.9181	132.94
100 day	        0.8352	111.13	1.3532	0.8871	133.02
200 day	        0.8588	118.20	1.4035	0.8974	137.47

GVI Forex Blog 09:55 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
10:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 4- The risk trade is off heading into trade in North America Monday. Risk-off might or might not last. This is an active week for central bank meetings. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan will announce policy decisions on Tuesday

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Risk Off Monday?

Syd 09:49 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Potential triggers for a downgrade include accelerated household re-leveraging, especially if further external borrowing pushes the CAD and NIIP further into deficit and heighten risks to financial and economic stability. A slower-than-expected pace of fiscal consolidation would also increase pressure for a downgrade.

ln FX TRADER 09:49 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

Time to buy USD and sell the rest
USD BULL has start

GVI Forex Blog 09:47 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Unemployment remains high in all of the advanced economies and in some is still rising. Almost a year into the economic recovery, unemployment in the eurozone rose to 10.1% in July 2010. It seems that recovery from the recent recession has not had

Economics Weekly - High unemployment - a symptom of the debt crisis; Weekly economic data preview - US payrolls to post first gain in four months

Syd 09:43 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
ECB’s Costa: Portuguese banks need alternative access to funding other than ECB

Saar KaL 09:43 GMT October 4, 2010
still short oil FM
will hold till 73

Saar KaL 09:40 GMT October 4, 2010
cable friday exp close range

10/8/2010 4:40 1.6077 1.5770
more like 2 oclock

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT October 4, 2010
DAILY FOREX VIEW
Entry: Target: Stop:

Saar KaL 09:32 GMT October 4, 2010
FM/
Although i placed longs at
1.5875 1.5692
1.5890 1.5676

i think big order around 1.5603 is good

Lahore FM 09:25 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3662 order Target: Stop: 1.3585

order in for long eurusd.

--
lowered gbpusd long stops to 1.5680 from 1.5700

Saar KaL 09:20 GMT October 4, 2010


eurusd eXPECTED
2 WEEKS FORECAST

Saar KaL 09:17 GMT October 4, 2010
i doubt it will go there today
will add longs if seen

1.3725 1.3641
1.3741 1.3628
1.3756 1.3615
1.3772 1.3603
1.3788 1.3590

Now added more AT MKT

Syd 09:14 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
CORRUPTION and inflation could have an "adverse impact" on stability in China, Premier Wen Jiabao warned overnight, also acknowledging that the people's thirst for democracy was "irresistible." In a rare and wide-ranging interview with CNN, Premier Wen touched on what until recently have been taboo subjects in Beijing and sought to brush aside international criticisms, insisting China's communist leaders were adapting.

jerusalem kb 09:13 GMT October 4, 2010
moved my stop loss lower to 80.70

tallinn viies 09:11 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
1,3655-1,3675 good area to try long euro for intraday play. target 1,3740-45 stops under 1,3620

Lahore FM 09:05 GMT October 4, 2010
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

closed out of two sells of eurusd which caried no stops for about even.

Saar KaL 09:03 GMT October 4, 2010
1.3834 tgt
I bought too
Major Long now

Dubai SAS 08:59 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3675 Target: Open Stop: 1.3630

Bot now ...

Order working to buy half more @ 1.3655 with the same stop .. GL

Saar KaL 08:52 GMT October 4, 2010
AUDUSD TGT 0.9769
gl

London SFH 08:51 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   

Typically Oct offers negative returns for both gold and silver metals, but that's what people originally said about Sep for stks and we know what happened there, trades at $1317. Probes Fib proj at 1320.40, ahead of the uptrend resistance near 1335.00.

Saar KaL 08:50 GMT October 4, 2010


GBPAUD good dive comin up

Gen dk 08:49 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Saar KaL 08:44 GMT October 4, 2010
friday close
eurusd min 1.3880
audusd min .9776
usdjpy max .8280
usdchf Max .9826

eurusd long is a very good deal folks

Hong Kong 08:44 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:

Last Update At 04 Oct 2010 07:52 GMT

Range Forecast
83.15 / 83.45

Resistance/Support
R: 83.51 / 83.93 / 84.11
S: 83.15 / 83.00 / 82.87

-------------------------

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:

Last Update At 04 Oct 2010 08:20 GMT

Range Forecast
1.3695 / 1.3725

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3746/1.3785/1.3809
S: 1.3684/1.3668/1.3646

--------------------------

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:

Last Update At 04 Oct 2010 08:23 GMT

Range Forecast
0.9735 / 0.9765

Resistance/Support
R: 0.9789/0.9806/0.9844
S: 0.9722/0.9708/0.9675

---------------------------

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:

Last Update At 04 Oct 2010 08:30 GMT

Range Forecast
1.5780 / 1.5815

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5819/1.5847/1.5874
S: 1.5749/1.5727/1.5705

Saar KaL 08:28 GMT October 4, 2010
Peat/
Diversity 2 ways
Pairs and Levels..
heheh
What can one do?

tokyo rana 08:24 GMT October 4, 2010
OMG today was possible 170pips almost....50pips usdjpy long missed 120pips short eurjpy missed....wow but its ok very difficult markeet...still long audjpy usdjpy...happy day,

Auckland peat 08:23 GMT October 4, 2010
hopefully you've got your money management covered with THAT number of trades KAL ;+)

Saar KaL 08:18 GMT October 4, 2010
my placed orders
shorts

USD/CHF 0.98
USD/JPY 83.684
USD/CHF 0.9828
USD/JPY 83.602
USD/CHF 0.9818
GBP/AUD 1.6338
GBP/AUD 1.6371
GBP/AUD 1.6388
JPN225 9,421


Longs


AUD/USD 0.9647
AUD/USD 0.9666
EUR/AUD 1.4126
EUR/AUD 1.4136
GBP/USD 1.5698
GBP/USD 1.5714
GBP/USD 1.5731
GBP/USD 1.5747
GBP/CAD 1.5984
GBP/CAD 1.6028
XAG/USD 21.88
XAG/USD 21.89
XAG/USD 21.97
AUD/JPY 80.256
AUD/JPY 80.449
SPX500 1,134.10
SPX500 1,136.00
XAU/USD 1,310.37
XAU/USD 1,313.46
XAU/USD 1,315.00
UK100 5,518
GER30 6,103
GER30 6,118
US30 10,714
US30 10,730
HKG33 22,369
HKG33 22,416
HKG33 22,464
HKG33 22,512
HKG33 22,559

Dubai SAS 08:17 GMT October 4, 2010
Dubai SAS 07:58 GMT October 1, 2010
Sell Aussie : Reply
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 9690 Target: Open Stop: Not yet

Sold ...

Out @ 9670 for + 20 .. all flat now

Dubai SAS 08:16 GMT October 4, 2010
Out of all my euro shorts @ 1.3704 - break even trade

Saar KaL 08:14 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
AUDUSD Longs at 0.96660 and 0.96470 if seen

Saar KaL 08:12 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
I just longed at 1139.6
will add more
gdax 6131 as well

PAR 08:10 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
0739 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY runs into profit taking after printing a fresh 4-month high of 115.29 and that moves weighs on EUR/USD, says a trader at a UK bank. EUR/JPY now trades at the day's low of 114.40, same for EUR/USD at 1.3728. Next strong support for the latter comes in around 1.3680 while for the cross, the 114.00 area should act as a prop, although stops are likely just below here. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)

Richland QC Mailman 07:55 GMT October 4, 2010
Bought 1.3733/35 for short term trade.

PAR 07:41 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Dollar Pops Higher On Profit-Taking


0730 GMT [Dow Jones] The dollar has nudged up vs EUR, CHF, GBP as traders pare back some aggressively bearish positions on the U.S. currency. Data late Friday show that negative bets on the dollar are close to record levels, so "it would be odd if we didn't have a bounce back at this point," says Jane Foley at Rabobank. The technical strategists at Citigroup note that the 10 and 20-hour moving averages on EUR/USD have just crossed, which could signal the start of a "decent" move lower in the pair. Now trades at 1.3730. (katie.martin@dowjones.com)

Syd 07:39 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Expect property bubbles of an "unprecedented magnitude" across Asia in 2011, if the region's central banks don't move to tighten monetary policy at an appropriate speed, warned Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, macro strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland. Central banks in Asia are "importing monetary policy conditions which are far too loose for them", Dwor-Frecaut said on CNBC Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39494663

tokyo rana 07:34 GMT October 4, 2010
Auckland peat 07:31 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,yes ithink we are near big crash....but idonot know when possible we see long term tops today thats wat im expecting...happy day,

jerusalem kb 07:32 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5680 Target: 1.5935/1.6075/1.6325 Stop: 1.5580

trail stop 120pips

Auckland peat 07:31 GMT October 4, 2010
the ascending wedge from last week has now delivered the full quota (down to on Euro$. I am increasingly thinking the meteoric rise is over now as there were 5 waves down from the wedge and they are looking more impulsive so maybe now we get an abc back close to tops and then the crash?

Syd 07:30 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Are EUR bulls having an attack of amnesia? Or, are they just super optimists? Last week the bulls sent the EUR soaring to a new six-month high against the USD, not because there was any particularly promising news about the euro zone economy or euro zone policy but all because the U.S. is still debating the need for more quantitative easing. But, that doesn't mean that the U.S. currency should become less attractive against the EUR, says Nicholas Hastings

jerusalem kb 07:27 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy OTHER
Entry: 81.70 Target: 82.70 Stop: 81.10

bought trial stop 60pips

jerusalem kb 07:17 GMT October 4, 2010
hit 1st target 40pips+ and sl same with no change(40pips) for safe open target trade

PAR 07:03 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
US terror warning could hurt Europe's economy

By ALAN CLENDENNING and MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writers Alan Clendenning And Matthew Lee, Associated Press Writers – 1 hr 13 mins ago
MADRID – A rare advisory for U.S. travelers to beware of potential terrorist threats in Europe drew American shrugs Sunday from Paris to Rome, but tourism officials worried that it could deter would-be visitors from moving ahead with plans to cross the Atlantic.

The travel alert is a step below a formal warning not to visit Europe, but some experts said it could still hurt a fragile European economy already hit hard by the debt crisis.

"I think if someone was looking for an excuse not to travel, then this is just the ticket," said George Hobica, founder of Airfarewatchdog.com. "However, I don't think most people will alter their plans unless the threat is very specific."

The State Department alert advised the hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens living or traveling in Europe to take more precautions about their personal security. Security officials say terrorists may be plotting attacks in Europe with assault weapons on public places, similar to the deadly 2008 shooting spree in Mumbai, India.

Hong Kong 07:01 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

Last Update At 04 Oct 2010 06:35 GMT

Rate : 1.3772

Euro's rebound after brief retreat fm 1.3809
(NZ) to 1.3746 suggests consolidation with upside
bias wud be seen, however, breach of said res is
needed to confirm recent upmove has once again
resumed n extend to 1.2819/20.


Wud be prudent to exit long n stand aside for
now. Below 1.3746 risks correction to 1.3720...

Range Forecast
1.3760 / 1.3800

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3809/1.3819/1.3858
S: 1.3739/1.3716/1.3684

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Saar KaL 06:59 GMT October 4, 2010
EURGBP
Bullish North
Buying
0.8736 0.8688
0.8746 0.8682
0.8756 0.8675
0.8765 0.8669
0.8775 0.8662

Zuerich Kiado 06:53 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell EURGBP
Entry: .8706 Target: .8580 Stop: .8740

GL

tokyo rana 06:50 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy AUDJPY
Entry: 80.79 Target: open Stop: 80.40

bought..............happy day,

tokyo rana 06:45 GMT October 4, 2010
kl fs 06:40 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,u can try short...im long...happy day,

Zuerich Kiado 06:41 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
any ideas on eurgbp?

kl fs 06:40 GMT October 4, 2010

Entry: again, losing 83.80 means 78-80 for usdjpy Target: Stop:

again, losing 83.80 means 78-80 for usdjpy
can't see any momentum for bulls at the moment
we tested 83.80 this morning so that should be enough for another big strong leg down later in the week, maybe equities are also correcting....will see in London

tokyo rana 06:30 GMT October 4, 2010
i had pending orders long audjpy 80.70......

tokyo rana 06:28 GMT October 4, 2010
Richland QC Mailman 06:22 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,i was expecting that near tokyo session close sold of...ithink now buy for europe session gbp aud etc....happy day,

Saar KaL 06:26 GMT October 4, 2010
qc
i am short here and staying that way for a while

Richland QC Mailman 06:22 GMT October 4, 2010
what happened to usd/yen after hitting 83.80? Really difficult to hold longs for this pair. Preferred strategy is to hit and run.

tokyo rana 06:11 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 83.35 Target: open Stop: later

long.............happy day,

Saar KaL 04:44 GMT October 4, 2010


AUDUSD
I am Buying
Heading to parity for sure
+ 1.07 in march 2011

Melbourne Qindex 04:38 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT October 3, 2010
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3963 : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3963


The weekly cycle matrix system indicates that a significant barrier is positioning at 1.3963 // 1.4163. The bias is on the upside when the market is able to close above the barrier at 1.3732 // 1.3749. The market is going to tackle the barrier at 1.3844 // 1.3866 during early period of next week. Speculative buying interest will increase when EUR/USD is above 1.3800 (see the series at Monthly Cycle Reference / Normal Lower Limits).


EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/euro.html



Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT October 2, 2010
USDX : Heading Towards 78.12 : Reply
usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

USDX : Heading Towards 78.12


As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is heading towards the supporting barrier at 77.46 // 78.12. The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the barrier at 78.66 // 78.97. The weekly cycle pivot centers are positioning at 75.23 - 77.47 - 78.33. Speculative selling pressure will increase again when the market is below 77.34.


USDX : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/usd.html

Syd 04:10 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
If RBA does pause Tuesday and deliver a steady accompanying statement, AUD/USD could suffer, says RBC Senior FX Strategist Sue Trinh. "With around 35 basis point of hikes priced by year-end, the risk is for a steady rate decision and/or a balanced statement accompanying a hike which may serve to cool AUD's heels ahead of the post float highs of 0.9850." Pair last at 0.9695. 18 of 25 economists in Dow Jones poll expect RBA to hike.

GVI Forex Blog 03:57 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
The US Equities were marginally down on profit booking last week.

Morning Briefing : 04-Oct-2010 - 0355 GMT

tokyo rana 03:48 GMT October 4, 2010
Buy AUDJPY
Entry: 80.70/90 Target: 81.60/82.30 Stop: 80.60/40

planing to go long jpy pairs untill europe session or usa session....but my guess this week or next week nice drop imean this monthbin aud and euro pairs...possible stock crash this monthmostly like we see today top of the top aud and euro.......iwill short audjpy today entry 81.60/82.30for 68.50 imean my target 1300pips....happy day,

tokyo rana 03:30 GMT October 4, 2010
eurjpy short closed 25pips plus...my avg was 115.20...happyday,

Philadelphia Caba 03:05 GMT October 4, 2010
long 1/2 more at 1.0190 with same s/l.

Philadelphia Caba 02:45 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0200 Target: 1.300 Stop: 1.0165

long usd/cad now
closed long usd/jpy at 83.70

RIYADH RUH-DMM-RUH 02:40 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell USDCHF
Entry: 0.9820/23/26 Target: 0.9730/24 Stop:

*

Syd 02:12 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Savings of up to €4.5bn in December's budget and total "adjustments" in excess of €10bn over the next four years will have to be found by the government as part of its revised fiscal plan currently being drawn up to rein in Ireland's massive deficit.http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/oct/03/government-must-find-45bn-of-cuts-in-decembers-bud/

tokyo rana 01:38 GMT October 4, 2010
Richland QC Mailman 01:32 GMT October 4, 2010
dear friend,thanx alot...but i closed early....i said right from that usdjpy may ret 100% reason was only that everyone long usdjpy so markeet pusd usdjpy all the way back....inever scared to long or short usdjpy....happy day,

Richland QC Mailman 01:36 GMT October 4, 2010
Bought this one too @ 1.0197. Still holding our possies @ 1.0218 established last Friday.

I think it will be more of a dollar bull scenario today - at least heading to the US market later.

tokyo rana 01:33 GMT October 4, 2010
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 115.05 Target: 114.50 Stop: 115.50

sold....and audjpy also closed 10pips plus....i closed usdjpy so early...happy day,

Richland QC Mailman 01:32 GMT October 4, 2010
Hi Raya and to all those brave souls who bought usd/yen, Congrats! I think it will be safe to buy the pair already after 2x bottom bounce confirmation, oversold studies, quite strong rebound off the support, and BOJ intervention threats.

Syd 01:22 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
ACCC Chairman Graeme Samuel says competition sensitivity is high in Australian finance sector due to the global financial crisis. "That is an area of constant focus for us in terms of examining potential mergers on a very vigorous basis, and is made even more difficult by not knowing exactly what we are going to see over the next year or two years," he tells the Wall Street Journal. Uncertainties include whether non-bank financial institutions re-enter market with vigor of 2007, and whether foreign banks return despite more stringent capital requirements

Hong Kong 01:20 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Market Review - 01/10/2010 22:23 GMT

Euro rallies to a six-month high against dollar on Fed Dudley's dovish comments

Euro rose strongly to a 6-month high of 1.3793 against the greenback on Friday after dovish comments from NY Fed President William Dudley which reinforced market's speculation on further quantitative easing by the U.S. Fed in the future.

The single currency edged higher in Asia initialy due to renewed risk appetites after release of the official China purchasing managers' index which rose to 53.8 from 51.7 in August, providing further evidence the economy was pulling smoothly out of a second-quarter swoon. Despite a brief retreat at Euroepan opening on profit-taking, renewed buying at 1.3629 contained intra-day pullback and euro surged to 1.3764 after penetrating Thursday's 5-month high of 1.3684 in Europe, price later ratcheted higher to a 6-month peak of 1.3678 in New York after dovish comments from NY Fed President William Dudley, he said 'more action by the Fed to boost growth will likely be warranted unless the economic outlook improves', fueling speculation that more money would be pumped to the U.S. economy. Despite euro's brief retreat to 1.3717 after the release of slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing index for September (which came in at 54.4, versus the forecast of 54.5 and 56.3 in August), euro rose again and climbed to a 6-month high of 1.3793 ahead of NY closing.

In other news, International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that he did not expect the euro rescue fund to be activated due to Ireland.

On data front, German retail sales in August came in at -0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y respectively, weaker than the economists' forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.5% y/y.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback edged lower from 83.58 in Australia and then fell sharply to 83.15, 1 tick below Thursday's low of 83.15, in Europe on dollar's broad-based weakness. However, buying interest at there lifted dollar to 83.44 in NY afternoon before retreating.

Earlier in Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the government would keep taking decisive action to curb the Japanese yen's rise as needed and urged BOJ to take further necessary steps to beat deflation.

Japanese unemployment rate was 5.1% in August versus the economists' forecast of 5.2%. Tokyo CPI and National CPI fell by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively.

The British pound ratcheted higher in Asia on short-covering after Thursday's selloff from an 8-week high of 1.5924 to 1.5670. Later, cable rallied from 1.5705 in tandem with euro in European morning despite the weaker-than-expected U.K. Manufacturing PMI index (which fell to 53.4 in September, the lowest reading in 10 months, versus the downwardly revised of 53.7 in August and the forecast of 53.8), cable climbed to 1.5874 in Europe before retreating in NY session.


Economic data to be released next week include:

U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, U.S. Durable goods (rev.), ex. Defense (rev.), ex. Transport (rev.) , Factory orders, Pending home sales, Pending home sales (Australia is closed on holiday) on Monday, Australia Retail sale, Trade balance (aud), RBA rate decision, Japan BOJ rate decision, Swiss CPI, Germany Services PMI, EU Services PMI, Retail sales, U.K. Services PMI, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing on Tuesday, U.K. BRC Shop Price Index , EU GDP, Germany Industrial prod'n, U.S. ADP employment, Canada Ivey PMI on Wednesday, Australia Unemployment change, Unemployment rat, Japan Leading indicators , U.K. Industrial prod'n, Manufacturing prod'n, BOE rate decision, Germany Industrial prod'n, EU ECB rate decision. U.S. Jobless claims, Canada Building permits on Thursday, Japan Current account, Economic watch DI, Swiss Jobless rate, Germany Export, Import, Trade balance (euro), U.K. PPI core, PPI input, PPI output, Canada Unemployment rate, Jobs-change, Housing starts, U.S. Avg. hourly earnings, Non-farm payrolls, Unemployment rate, Wholesale inventories on Friday.

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Philadelphia Caba 00:32 GMT October 4, 2010
half out now, stop moved to b/e for second half

RIYADH RUH-DMM-RUH 00:22 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
Sell EURAUD
Entry: 1.4178 Target: 1.4078 Stop:

sell

Syd 00:07 GMT October 4, 2010 Reply   
An estimate of consumer price inflation in Australia rose 0.1% in September, a signal price pressures in the country are under control, according to a report by TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute issued Monday. Report suggests official third quarter inflation numbers due later this month are likely to be benign. "This inflation report provides the RBA with a signal to relax into 2011," TD Securities Senior Strategist Annette Beacher said. "We do not forecast inflation to be a concern until the second half of next year, a lagged response to shrinking capacity constraints in the capital and labor markets". On the basis of the TD gauge, Beacher estimates third quarter consumer prices likely only rose 0.5% on a trimmed basis, or 2.4% annually, well within the RBA's comfort zone.