Forex Forum Archive for 04/15/2010

SF WM 15:17 GMT April 15, 2010
Stopped on balance for +5. Surprising day. Will check in later.

jerusalem KB 15:13 GMT April 15, 2010
thanks ya H.
bye the way i was born in cairo

tokyo rana 15:07 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
well everyone today jpy is not weak....just gbp strong today tomorrow big news also coming about election uk....tonight big move possible in jpy pairs ifeel...offcourse gbp is easy crossing of jpy.any view?tonight see crazy moves in jpy pairs..any comment?GL

Cairo Hesham 14:57 GMT April 15, 2010
To KB: Good trades, keep on

jerusalem KB 14:55 GMT April 15, 2010
closed 2nd long at 1.5496 with 80pips+ and 1st was 88-pips
covered loss

GVI Forex Blog 14:46 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   

Stronger Dollar could Pressure U.S. Stocks Today

GVI Forex Blog 14:45 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   

China’s GDP shows Economy Might be Overheating

Lahore FM 14:39 GMT April 15, 2010
Buy GBPCHF
Entry: 1.6276 Target: 1.7000 Stop: 1.6120 as amended now

04/14/2010 13:19:55 FM Lahore 6

Buy GBPCHF
Entry: 1.6276 Target: 1.7000 Stop: 1.6060
bought gbpchf with mentioned t/p and sl.
--
1/3rd out for 100+ at 1.6376 now,stops raised to 1.6120 for rest 2/3rds.

nyc ws 14:21 GMT April 15, 2010
That should read where gbpusd was trading...

nyc ws 14:21 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
eurusd was 100 pips higher yesterday when eurgbp was trading around current levels (1.5475) yesterday. This tells you where the flows have been going today.

LDN mac 14:07 GMT April 15, 2010
RF- agree. The Greek situation is back up in the air again.

GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT April 15, 2010
Data @ 14:30 GMT
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories

Weekly estimates of working gas volumes in underground natural gas storage facilities from the Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy.

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT April 15, 2010
Philly Fed 20,2

SF WM 13:54 GMT April 15, 2010
I was filled on my usdjpy buy order overnight (avg 93.05) and taking 1/2 now at 93.40. Stop at 93.10 for balance.

HK RF@ 13:50 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Euro is prone to dive to 1.3500, that is the risk I see for the moment.

GVI Forex Blog 13:39 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Building Permits

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/04/2010

GVI Forex john 13:19 GMT April 15, 2010
Data @ 14:00 GMT
Philly Fed Survey

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

GVI Forex Blog 13:12 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
First, "Do not let the yuan's exchange rate issue become the scapegoat of U.S. domestic economic problems, including their unemployment," said a Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson... Sounds

A new twist on The China Syndrome; ECB reads Currency Currents?

Ath. Xarian 13:02 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Cashed the shorts from highs from yesterday and today in Asian time at 1,3529.My daily trendlines hold and confirmed I posted 2 days ago,and my 4h chart.I think I will wait a little bit now,cause in greece right now there is a lot of talking about what to do.There are 3 chances:
a)To use the EU-IMF aid
b)to replace 3 years bonds with 5 years (technical default),continuing for loans from the markets at high rates
c)to leave from eurozone
Until this get clear,cause politcians are expert in making troubles in the market with their statements,I remain out,despite the confirmation of my system
Also,I wanna say a big thank to Jay and Zeus for their thoughts and recommendations.Nice trading with you side by side mates!You rock!
GL

Amm wf 12:57 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
eurusd chart

Chicago ETP 12:49 GMT April 15, 2010
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Thursday 15 April 2010

The last comment that Euro was vulnerable and the ability to reach 137 was not clear played itself out in overnight activity as price could not hold the 136.30 area. Keeping in mind the fact that the predominate trend remains down, work is needed to overcome sellers, and today's decline reflects this.

While down over 100 pips, price is still up 270 pips from the recent lows. This correction is holding above the 50% level, recent low to high, and how price responds to the current sell-off will determine the character of what may be some bottoming activity, even if only temporary.

Filling the gap or not filling the gap is of less importance than the way in which Euro demonstrates an ability to recover, if it
does.

Still friendly to this currency using select entry levels, while respecting the importance of the trend.

GVI Forex john 12:49 GMT April 15, 2010
Data @ 13:00 GMT and 13:15 GMT
Treasury TIC data
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms).

IMPACT: Traders sometimes use the TIC data as a measure of international demand for U.S. financial instruments. These data tend to be a bit old (two months) by the time they are released.


Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT April 15, 2010
No improvement all year! Lousy number.

Weekly jobs U.S.

Click on chart for seven-year history

tokyo rana 12:32 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,thanx yeah gbpjpy again going up 144 to 145 iwas outside now seen ur post....happy trade,best regards

Amsterdam Purk 12:20 GMT April 15, 2010
Hi Zeus, guess MIB surrounded you yesterday, hehehe.
Shorts e/u where smashing a worth while waiting for. Ho Hum!

GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT April 15, 2010

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GVI Forex Blog 12:13 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 15-Apr-2010 - 1212 GMT

HK c 12:13 GMT April 15, 2010
Sell
Entry: Target: 92.15 Stop:

Was hoping to take more and left a lot on the table. Squaring up. Will throw in a low bid later.

jerusalem KB 12:08 GMT April 15, 2010


hi k.k unfortently i was stopped in the first long and i entered again with same target 1.5575 as per att.
u better wait for the current h4 candle closes above the ploted trend line and the middle bollinger band for more confirmation.
i am already in

Mtl JP 12:04 GMT April 15, 2010
RF@ the yen has me salivating over Japan's ginormous debt levels, especially making me drool as I concider Japan's demographics (aging & shrinking population). On a shorter-term BoJ is appearing to twitch its quantitative easing policies tail with associated ccy implications now that supposedly Japan political "leadership" has strenghtened.

As always, correct play timing and risk management likely mean the difference between gain / pain.

GVI Forex john 11:59 GMT April 15, 2010
Total Open Interest in EURO FX futures Wednesday was 200,919, down 7,436 cars. Pretty clearly reducing shorts.

Tehran K.K 11:56 GMT April 15, 2010
HI jerusalem KB hwhere is TP for GBP

GVI Forex john 11:47 GMT April 15, 2010
Data @ 12:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data

Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.



Purchasing Managers Index – Empire State PMI

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

HK RF@ 11:38 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
No one who has brain in his head, will trust the Euro as of where to place his money.
IT IS OVER FOR THE TIME!!!

warsaw TOMi 11:38 GMT April 15, 2010
rana, gbpjpy tanked a bit 10 pips ahead of 14313.
that means we take a breather before lower later in a day
144 and 14440 caps now
gl/gt

PAR 11:36 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8621581.stm

Iceland's volcanic ash halts flights in northern Europe

Flights have been disrupted across northern Europe by volcanic ash drifting south and east from Iceland.

Airspace was closed or flights cancelled in countries including the UK, the Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

The ash, which can damage aeroplane engines, was produced by a volcanic eruption under a glacier in Iceland.

Flooding was reported as the glacier melted, and up to 800 people were evacuated from the area on Wednesday.

Eyewitnesses and local officials said there were two flows of flood water coming off the glacier in south-western Iceland, and that a road along the flooded Markarfljot river had been cut in several places.

warsaw TOMi 11:28 GMT April 15, 2010
the end of the day happened in early london morning. it never made 1.37 mark. indeed a smooth happy day. gratis
happy trades

U.K. J.B. 11:23 GMT April 15, 2010
Been away for a few weeks to sunny Mexico. First day back today , seen some pretty good calls from you Zeus nice touch well done..

London ex 11:21 GMT April 15, 2010
Good point. Its hard to believe we are back trading on Greece again. They just can't put this issue to rest.

USA ZEUS 11:18 GMT April 15, 2010
Purk- One can only do so much!
Pump & dump, cap & trap, fade the pop and watch it drop etc etc etc.....

What a Happy Day!

London Chris 11:05 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
This market feels like it is in a state of shock over price moves today.

GVI Forex Blog 10:14 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
The euro fell against the dollar and the yen on Thursday as higher costs to insure against a Greek default highlighted persistent concerns about Greece's debt problems and cut demand for risky assets.

FOREX NEWS - Euro slides broadly, weighed by Greece concerns

Cape of Good Hope Magellan 10:13 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Where's the chart ?

London ex 10:06 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 93.10 Target: 93.80 Stop: 92.60

Low leverage trade. Looking to add to the position if $/yen trades lower.

Amman wfakhoury 10:00 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
eurusd chart

jerusalem KB 10:00 GMT April 15, 2010
stopped at 88pips-

Amman wfakhoury 09:59 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
pls have a look on profitmaker chart how it leads traders to profit.

GVI Forex Blog 09:52 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
10:00 GMT- Apr 15 (global-view.com) Today has seen a USD Tax Day rebound. The slew of Chinese data awaited today were strong as expected with GDP up 11.9% y/y. The CPI increase of 2.4% was a bit less than expected and did not look that bad in absolute terms, but a fast increase in its underlying rate is masked by base effects from a year ago.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View - USD Rebound

GVI Forex Blog 09:52 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
The Strong China GDP data coupled with upbeat corporate earnings had seen risk appetite appear entrench but rumors of an imminent PBoC interest rate or reserve requirement hike weighed upon sentiment as the session progressed. The European peripheral situation also aided risk aversion attitude

European Market Update: European peripherals continue to widen; Greece might cancel dollar-denominated bond issue if interest wanes’

GVI Forex john 09:48 GMT April 15, 2010

London Misha 09:32 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
EURUSD - Double Bottom with a possible Bullish Tasuki Gap on the Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Long Legged Doji on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - White Soldier on the Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Chart!
USDCAD - Possible Bullish Hammer on the Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Golden Cross of the Short/Medium MA up through the Medium MA.
NZDUSD - Market bounces off the Long MA to create a Key Reversal Up!

Amsterdam Purk 09:23 GMT April 15, 2010
Lotsa buyers yesterday and today buying because of what they thought was the trend. They turned out to be 95%ers...

HK RF@ 09:21 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
It will be nice if Euro will gap down to 1.3500.

jkt-aye 09:16 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

below 92.65 heading for 91.15 ?

HK RF@ 09:07 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
If no one likes to buy it at 1.3500, you may get it at a nice discount at 1.3400.

PAR 09:01 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Greek bonds show the nation may have to tap a 45 billion-euro ($61 billion) international bailout to convince investors it can avoid a default.

The yield premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year securities instead of benchmark German bunds rose above 400 basis points for the first time since euro-region finance ministers announced the aid plan last weekend. The bonds were little changed today, after declining the past two days. The parliaments of Germany, France and Ireland must vote on whether to contribute their share of the loans, government spokesmen said yesterday. Dutch lawmakers will discuss Greek aid today.

jkt-aye 08:48 GMT April 15, 2010
that confused symptoms made me out of eur just to cover those geese that flying without wings. gtgl All

warsaw TOMi 08:44 GMT April 15, 2010
may just be a dead cat

HK RF@ 08:42 GMT April 15, 2010
It will rather bounce here or will make it's way to 1.3500.
Same symptom like Aussie...loss of momentum.

warsaw TOMi 08:37 GMT April 15, 2010
grats
eurusd hit target at 1.3565
bounce expected as weell.
happy trades

HK RF@ 08:36 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
All shows good about this pair, hmmm...but it may stall and from here, worth having a close and careful observation if this rocket can still pull up, or begins heading back to earth.

jkt-aye 08:35 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
jkt-aye 16:15 GMT April 14, 2010
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3664 Target: 1.3484 Stop: 1.3694

is this mean hedge my usdcad short ?

jkt-aye 12:20 GMT April 14, 2010
Sell USDCAD
Entry: .9965 Target: .993 Stop: .9995

-------------------------------------

the goose get slaughtered...and cover it with pips from euroland.

tokyo rana 08:34 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,thats cool.if you see i need to buy please message.happy trade,best regards,

warsaw TOMi 08:31 GMT April 15, 2010
rana, I dont go that far, prefer to stay short gbpjpy for the rest of the day and possibly tomorrow. for the next week bias will see on monday.
happy trades
tehran, gracias, dont follow any system, when you follow you are already behind. in order to be in front of the market, my advice is you go and learn from someone successful and with at least 10 years experience. with 6 months experience stay with demo only and test what is good for you, when having free time for it.
gl/t

warsaw TOMi 08:22 GMT April 15, 2010
short cable, take profit 1.5457 for +63
expect a bounce now

Syd 07:58 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Strong data and earnings are helping to ensure a "risk-on" theme in currency markets. However RBS notes with EUR still constrained by Greece's debt problems, it will be up to Asian and other riskier currencies to do the running. "Valuations are starting to look stretched for some currencies but CAD, AUD, NZD, and even the Nordics, still look well placed to benefit further against USD and JPY but particularly against EUR where sovereign risks still weigh," the bank says

tokyo rana 07:42 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,your great good luck...im keep asking... u r favor gbpjpy up trend 200yen?or down trend 99yen?143 long is better?happy trade,best regards

Tehran K.K 07:39 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi I am new here your trade for gb/us was th best Tomi could you please guide me here I trading in forex for 6 months I dont know wich system to follow

warsaw TOMi 07:32 GMT April 15, 2010
rana, gbpjpy reached target nice shake, may stall for a while now.
happy trades

warsaw TOMi 07:16 GMT April 15, 2010
1/2 off the nice shake at 1.5480 stop down to entry
may resell on pullbacks to 1.5500/10

PAR 07:11 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Volcano ash alert from Iceland hits UK flights

The Icelandic eruption - airport officials say the ash represents a very serious risk to aircraft

Airline passengers have been facing disruption across the UK after warnings of an ash cloud from a volcanic eruption in Iceland.

In Scotland, all airports were shut and there were disruptions at many others including Manchester, Liverpool, Stansted, Newcastle and Birmingham.

The Air Traffic Control Service (Nats), imposed restrictions after the Met Office warned ash could damage engines.

Passengers are being advised to contact their airlines prior to travel.

Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow airports were shut as Nats said it was restricting flights "in accordance with international civil aviation policy".

The ash cloud disrupted all flights to and from Manchester with a similar picture at Newcastle airport where all arrivals were cancelled and all outbound flights either cancelled or subject to indefinite delay


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8621407.stm

Syd 06:53 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
"Goldilocks" scenario for China economy in 2010 still well on track, Morgan Stanley says, noting China 1Q GDP +11.9% on-year, in line with house's expectation of +12.0% on-year. Still expects 2010 GDP growth to average +11%, CPI +3.2%. Tweaks some policy calls, now expects one rate hike in 2Q, CNY revaluation in summer, potential second rate hike in 3Q hinging on timing of U.S. Fed's first rate hike as well as inflation outlook. Says also expects authorities will soon roll out a series of sector-specific regulatory measures to rein in rapid increase in property prices

Melbourne Qindex 06:43 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Daily Cycle Analysis



Daily Cycle Projected Series (1154.8) : ... 1128.7 - 1133.0* - 1137.3 - 1139.5 // 1141.7* - 1143.8 - 1146.0 - 1148.1 - 1150.3* - 1152.5 - [1154.6] - 1156.8 - 1158.9* - 1161.1 - 1163.2 - 1165.4 - 1167.6* // 1169.7 - 1171.9 - 1176.2* -1180.5 ...



Daily Cycle Congested Area : 1110.2 - 1125.0 - 1139.8 - (1154.6 - 1169.4) - 1184.2 - 1199.0



Neutral Range : 1141.0 - 1186.5

(Buy at low and sell at high is the preferred trading strategy when the market is trading within the the neutral range. A stop and reverse order can also be considered).



Downside Targeting Points : 1140.3 - 1150.7


Upside Targeting Points : 1167.2 - 1177.9


Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html

tokyo rana 06:36 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,thats cool...wat do think 143 long?you think up chances more than down?or down chances more than up?happy trade,best regards

warsaw TOMi 06:33 GMT April 15, 2010
it wont go up until recharges some fuel and the tank station is now at 14313.
gl/gt

tokyo rana 06:31 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,thanx for post....im looking for 136 or below...but now every body saying gbpjpy just go up and up...happy trade,best regards

warsaw TOMi 06:28 GMT April 15, 2010
of course possible, but what are you talking about?
5500 pips from here? :)
better stick to your 700 pips
happy trades

tokyo rana 06:23 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,thanx for post..you mean possible 200yen?happy trade,best regards

Hong Kong 06:18 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.3643

Late Update At 15 Apr 2010 04:34 GMT

Euro's retreat fm 1.3666 after y'day's gain to
1.3679 (NY) suggests further range-trading wud con-
tinue with near term downside bias for pullback to
1.3620/25, however, reckon y'day's low at 1.3595
wud remain intact n yield another bounce later.


Stand aside n look to buy on intra-day weakness
but abv 1.3679 needed to bring re-test of 1.3692.


Range Forecast
1.3630 / 1.3655


Resistance/Support
R: 1.3679/1.3692/1.3750
S: 1.3612/1.3595/1.3545
http://www.acetraderfx.com

warsaw TOMi 06:17 GMT April 15, 2010
it is not out of the question, but not in the next 2 days.

tokyo rana 06:09 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,cool thanx alot..iwill not long...some guys was saying heading to 147 to 200yen...happy trade,best regards

warsaw TOMi 06:02 GMT April 15, 2010
no long anymore rana, will push to 14313 by the end of the week
happy trades

tokyo rana 06:00 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,cool thanx for post...ihave shorts already....im asking long is better to protect shorts?happy trade,best regards

warsaw TOMi 05:56 GMT April 15, 2010
sold a failure test of 145 stop 14530 target 14400 fn

tokyo rana 05:53 GMT April 15, 2010
warsaw TOMi,hello,how are you?gbpjpy long or short?happy trade,best regards,

warsaw TOMi 05:47 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5520 Target: 1.5450 Stop: 1.5540

lets shake a little

Melbourne Qindex 05:38 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
S&P
Entry: Target: Stop:

S&P 500 : Critcal Resistance 1241.5



As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market momentum is strong when it is above the monthly cycle neutral range at 1151.9 - 1214.9. The bias is on the upside when the market is above 1179.4. The monthly cycle directional indicator suggests that 1241.5 is a resistant point. It is the last member of the projected series. A pullback is imminent when the market is approaching the "Monthly Cycle Reference Normal Upper Limits" (see the section of the "Long Term References for Position Traders).


S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/sp500-future.html

HK RF@ 05:19 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Mtl JP 04:03 GMT April 15, 2010

It should be placed at the back of the brain, that the Jpy may serve as a proxy for the Yuan.

Once, and if China will float it's currency you may expect a large movement.

Bet that the Chinese and Japanese are working together on the subject, so that story of Yen at 120 may only be floating of a baloon.

Syd 05:14 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of Australian consumers’ expectations about future inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, making it more likely that the central bank will continue its world-leading round of interest-rate increases
Households surveyed in April expect consumer prices to climb 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, compared with 3.2 percent predicted the previous month, the Melbourne Institute said today.Signs that the nation’s economic rebound is strengthening, including a surge in employment that threatens to stoke wage growth, prompted central bank Governor Glenn Stevens to raise the benchmark lending rate last week for the fifth time in six meetings. The Reserve Bank of Australia aims to keep inflation between 2 percent and 3 percent on average.“This month’s report indicates inflation pressure is mounting after a relatively stable period,” said Michael Chua, a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute. The increase “is significant and suggests that consumers expect demand to grow at a faster rate than changes in production.”

Mtl JP 04:03 GMT April 15, 2010
HK RF@ currently I prefer expecting that price action is simply "resting", catching its breath, like a panting leopard resting after a chase.

IF price action does approach the line and while above it, I will concider it accumulate buying opportunities on dips for usdyen 100 target (i.e. smaller risk exposure of my account).

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 15-Apr-2010 - 0338 GMT

Syd 03:22 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
CHINA came under more pressure to let its currency rise as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said flatly that the yuan is "undervalued" to promote a more export-oriented economy and an International Monetary Fund study suggested that a currency move wouldn't harm Chinese growth if handled properly. Mr Bernanke, making his strongest comments on the subject in speaking before Congress's Joint Economic Committee, said, "It would be good for the Chinese to allow more flexibility in their exchange rate" to "address inflation and bubbles within their own economy" and to help bring more balance to a global economy in which China relies too much on exports and the US too much on borrowing to import.

jerusalem KB 02:40 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5490 Target: 1.5620/814 Stop: 1.5402bid

added to first long enterd at 1.5385

Syd 02:04 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
China 1st-Quarter Urban FAI +26.4% On Year; March Industrial Output +18.1%
China March CPI Up 2.4% On Year; PPI Up 5.9%
China 1st-Quarter PPI Up 5.2% On Year
China 1st-Quarter CPI Up 2.2% On Year
China March PPI Up 5.9% On Year; Market Expected Up 6.6%
China March Non-Food Prices Up 1.0% On Year
China March Food Prices Up 5.2% On Year
China March Retail Sales Up 18.0% On Year
China March CPI Up 2.4% On Year; Market Expected Up 2.6%
China March Industrial Output Up 18.1%; Expected Up 18.3%
China 1Q Rural Fixed-Asset Investment Up 21.0%
China Jan-Mar Crude Oil Output 48.19 Mln Tons; Up 4.6% On Yr
China 1st-Quarter GDP Grew 11.9%; Fastest Since Crisis

China 1st-Quarter GDP Grew 11.9%; Fastest Since Crisis

hong kong G 01:47 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
China Data leaked... 11.9% GDP vs 11.7 exp. More important CPI 2.4% vs exp 2.6%. So win win .. growth solid with inflation not running away north... should be good for rsik ccy and USDYEN up up and away.

SF WM 01:42 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3678 Target: 1.3598 Stop: 1.3705

See if the highs hold.

Syd 01:38 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
S Korea Vice Fin Min: Would Welcome Yuan Rise If It Helps Global Rebalancing

Syd 01:03 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian consumer inflationary expectations rose in April on continued low unemployment and a growing local economy, according to a survey by the Melbourne Institute released Thursday.
Consumer inflationary expectations rose to 4.1% in April from 3.2% in March, the report said. "The jump in the median inflation rate is significant and suggests that consumers expect demand to grow at a faster rate than changes in production," he added.

Westpac chief expects another rate rise
Westpac chief expects another rate riseWestpac Banking Corporation chief executive Gail Kelly expects another interest rate rise.
http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#1468117983

Hong Kong 00:36 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Market Review - 14/04/2010 21:26GMT
The dollar falls on Bernanke's comments but rebounds later

The greenback weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautious notes on economy and dovish comments on U.S. interest rates.

Although the greenback rose to 93.73 against the Japanese yen in NY morning after the release of stronger-than-expected retail sales data, the pair nose-dived afterwards to an intra-day low of 92.82 in NY mid-day after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke stated the Fed expected 'very low, extremely low ' interest rates for an 'extended period' in his testimony. However, the pair rebounded from said intra-day low in NY afternoon. In other news, the Federal Reserve said in the Beige Book that the U.S. economy 'strengthened' in most regions in March while the U.S. core retail sales rose unexpectedly by 0.6% in March versus the economists' forecast of 0.5% together with upwardly revised 1.0% in February . A combination of robust retails sales data and strong corporate earnings brought return of risk appetite which lifted stocks and commodity currencies. DJI ended the day up 103.69 points at 11123.11.

Despite the single currency's rise to 1.3666 in Asian mid-day on active short-covering together with cross buying in euro versus the yen and sterling, euro fell to an intra-day low of 1.3595 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. However, euro rebounded from there and hit an intra-day high of 1.3679 in NY mid-day on dollar's broad-based weakness. Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.9% m/m and 4.1% y/y in February, much better than the economists' forecast of no change and 2.7% rise respectively. Earlier, euro was once under pressure due to market's talk that Moody's may downgrade Greek credit rating and EU's comments that Portugal may need more fiscal cuts.

The Singapore dollar hit a 20-month high of 1.3735 against the U.S. currency after the central bank tightened monetary policy by revaluating the currency unexpectedly.

Economic data to be released on Thursday include Japan Capacity utilisation and Industrial production, U.S. Jobless claims, Industrial production, Philadelphia Fed survey, NAHB housing market index.
http://www.acetraderfx.com

HK RF@ 00:28 GMT April 15, 2010
Mtl JP 23:39 GMT April 14, 2010


USD/JPY

What you stated, is obvious, but seems a loss of momentum on the daily.

Likely most traders are short-yen this time, and this may weigh too on any serious devaluation.

Prices will definitely shake wild.

Seems the intervention by the BOJ will be more on verbal.
Talk about 120 yen this week didn't do much for to price.

Yen is definitely a funding currency now, and this too may be a factor in fixing the price.
And for the last: Did you ever thought that this trend line you correctly drew, might be tested again?

SF WM 00:22 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 92.90-93.10 Target: 94.00 Stop: 92.50

Leaving a low ball bid.

ABHA FXS 00:17 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sell@0.9360 Tp 0.9281
Day Trader...

Syd 00:03 GMT April 15, 2010 Reply   
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