Forex Forum Archive for 12/18/2011

Cambridge Joe 23:27 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
German president in peril over use of private villas.

BERLIN (Reuters) - German President Christian Wulff, an ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he did use the villas of business friends for private holidays, the latest twist in a scandal that could cost him his job after just 18 months.
Although the president's role is largely ceremonial, damaging headlines reflect badly on Merkel as she pushed for his appointment.
Under pressure from the media, Wulff said in a statement through his lawyers that he had spent six holidays in villas belonging to entrepreneurs while he was serving as premier of Lower Saxony from 2003 to 2010.

http://news.yahoo.com/german-president-peril-says-stayed-villa-213449421.html;_ ylt=AnDwa_.mti4EtfDHp_IbPv9vaA8F; _ylu=X3oDMTRiYms5NTEyBGNjb2RlA3Z zaGFyZWFnMgRtaXQDSnVtYm90cm9uIFdv cmxkU0YEcGtnAzdhZDQyN2E2LWEyOWIt M2FkOC1hMjFjLTQyZmY3OGZjMmE2MARwb 3MDMQRzZWMDanVtYm90cm9uBHZlcgNi MzcyMzlhMC0yOWMxLTExZTEtYjdkZC01Z jQwNDJlY2RjOWI-;_ylg=X3oDMTFwZTlt MWVnBGludGwDdX MEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzd GNhdAN3b3JsZARwdANzZWN0aW9ucw R0ZXN0Aw--;_ylv=3

User 22:57 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

FM's Robot Trading - A Unique Opportunity In Automation

GVI Forex john 22:53 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.

GVI Forex john 22:44 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   


December 18 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, December 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

• Far East: No Major Data.
• Europe: EZ- Current Account Investment Flows.
• North America: CA- Wholesale Trade. US- NAHB Index.

GVI Forex john 21:38 GMT December 18, 2011
Early quotes
EURUSD 1.3045
USDJPY 77.76
USDCHF .9358
GBPUSD 1.5542

dc CB 21:26 GMT December 18, 2011
If this went over your head, let me explain (and go read Jesse's article on it) -- the bankruptcy trustee is now apparently either attempting to or actually has seized customer property held in gold and silver vaults if those bars were transacted through MF Global!

A warehouse receipt is not an unallocated, nebulous claim. It contains a serial number of one or more specific bars sitting in a warehouse. You are in fact charged a storage fee for the service of maintaining security over your property and you have had to tender payment in full as well. This is a bailment in any sense of the word and under any theory of law I've seen -- and yet now, suddenly, it is proposed that your property held under bailment by this institution can be seized and stolen to pay unallocated bankruptcy claims against the bankrupt company's estate!

This sort of action turns the entire premises of private property and bailment on its ear! NO -- and I repeat NO -- property held allegedly for your benefit by any third party anywhere is safe under this "theory" of the bankruptcy trustee. Yes, this includes something so simple as the money on deposit in your bank account.

Private Property Now Subject To Seizure

Syd 21:17 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
The chronology shows MF executives providing inaccurate documents about the client fund shortfall and alledging it must be an accounting error and not that the funds were lost.

LINK

GVI Forex john 21:13 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

Brock Thor 21:09 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
EURAUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

FM...Wondering if you are still long EUR/AUD?
Thank you.

Boston eFX 21:09 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) The NZD/USD is likely to have a marginally positive start to the week as markets look towards growth numbers due later this week, says ANZ Senior Dealer Alex Sinton.

Sinton says resistance levels will likely be investigated....

NZD/USD May Test 0.7800 Pre Holidays (full story)

Syd 20:32 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
THE roller-coaster ride that has seen the Australian dollar see-saw within a US16c range will continue this year, according to currency experts.
The so-called Aussie started the year close to parity with the greenback, buying $US1.01.

But by late July it had jumped above $US1.10 - its highest level since the currency was floated in 1983.

Syd 19:52 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
The risks are high that there will be a fracture in the eurozone based upon simple group dynamics of the eurozone’s failure to live up to its initial promise. The question is whether it will be orderly or disorderly. The equity markets have not fully discounted the unwinding of the eurozone and as a result will likely be caught “flatfooted” disrupting equity markets early in 2012.

The basis for the euro “club” is no different than the group dynamics of any social organization. Each member joins to advance their own interest under an agreement which appears to benefit all—but each for different reasons.

Syd 19:36 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
The first decade of the euro intertwined the Continent's financial systems as never before. Banks and investment funds in one euro-using country gorged on the bonds of others, freed of worry about devaluation-prone currencies like the drachma, lira, peseta and escudo.

BRUSSELS—A common currency drove investors to Europe's outer reaches, then scared them away.

Syd 19:33 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Greeks fearing collapse of eurozone bailout pulled record sums from bankBank of Greece reveals that investors fearful of political instability and economic collapse pulled €12.3bn from local banks as Papandreou referendum threatened debt deal

A man walks through Athens' main food market. Greece abounds in stories of people lugging suitcases of cash out of the country to banks in Cyprus, London and Switzerland.

Syd 19:24 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Federal Reserve Bank of New York president William Dudley 'can't imagine' US buying European debt
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said he “cannot imagine” the US central bank buying European sovereign debt to combat the crisis, though it has the legal authority to do so.

William Dudley defended the Fed's currency-swap lines to foreign central banks, saying that the loans are 'about helping ourselves'

dc CB 19:13 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
My Sunday Washington Post column is out this morning. Today, we look at The systemic risk revealed by MF Global’s collapse.

As has been the case so many times, the details of this debacle are found in the regulatory changes lobbied for — and recieved — by Corzine and the MF Global legal crew. In researching this column, I discovered several deeply disturbing facts.

The Big Picture-By Barry Ritholtz

hk ab 18:55 GMT December 18, 2011
19 Billion......

Boston eFX 18:48 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Speculators placed the largest bet since at least 2007 that the euro will fall against the dollar, last week wagering a net $19 billion that the troubles plaguing the currency union will hurt the euro, government data showed Friday.

The market's euro position as of Tuesday was up 18% over the prior week, totalling a net 116,457 contracts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report on the commitments of traders.

"People think the euro should be lower," said Shaun Osborne of TD Securities in Toronto. His firm forecasts the euro/dollar will hit .....

Speculators Bet Net $19 Billion Against Euro; Largest Position Since 2007 (full story)

GVI Forex Blog 18:22 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
This coming week we shall likely see Congress pass an extension of the "temporary" payroll tax cut, first enacted as a stimulus to the economy in January of 2011. As I write, the extension is just for two months. We'll leave aside the politics and look at the economic implications of the extension, and then go on to examine the deficit in the US.

The Center Cannot Hold (Mauldin)

GVI Forex john 18:17 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

• Key Items- EZ- Current Account.

• There will be no major data from the U.S. on Monday. As usual, the price action should be driven by headlines and robots following equities.

• Worth considering, recent U.S. employment data has been starting to suggest  that the economy is finally on a recovery path.

• S&P and Moodys downgrades are still expected, after the EU Leaders Summit did little to address the existing sovereign debt exposures. The EFSF will be rated at the credit rating of its lowest participant.  

• The economic calendar in the week ahead will be active heading into the Christmas break.

GVI Forex Blog 17:05 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Key Items- EZ- Current Account. There will be no major data from the U.S. on Monday. As usual, the price action should be driven by headlines and robots following equities. Worth considering, recent U.S. employment data has been starting to suggest that the economy is finally on a recovery path.

Forex Trade Talk 00:00 GMT 19 December 2011

GVI Forex john 16:34 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3171	78.36	0.9467	1.5632	1.0537	1.0135
Res 2	1.3127	78.16	0.9441	1.5594	1.0471	1.0081
Res 1	1.3081	77.98	0.9401	1.5557	1.0425	1.0022

Pivot	1.3037	77.78	0.9375	1.5519	1.0359	0.9968

Sup 1	1.2991	77.60	0.9335	1.5482	1.0313	0.9909
Sup 2	1.2947	77.40	0.9309	1.5444	1.0247	0.9855
Sup 3	1.2901	77.22	0.9269	1.5407	1.0201	0.9796

GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

Fx Trading Contest 12:34 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   

Global-View End of Year Contest - Cash Prize

hk ab 10:26 GMT December 18, 2011
the fact is revealed by the CTFC report, not guess.....

Perth WTR 10:22 GMT December 18, 2011
hk ab, in reality it could be that 99% were already long eurjpy and now the position is under water IMHO

hk ab 10:21 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
even with the baby being so ill, it cannot rule out a bounce to 1.39 area before resumption of downmove.......

hk ab 09:33 GMT December 18, 2011
seems 99% of traders are on the short side of the e/j now.....

Perth WTR 09:11 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
the only so-called safe haven so far is JPY
i will stay with short usdjpy and eurjpy
usdjpy's 78.20 and 78.70 stay intact last week, so we remain confident with the short position unless those levels taken out
eurjpy in general will still suffer from euro weakness as a whole, bounces in any, will be seen as opportunities to go short at better levels, monthly trend is very much bearish with more room to go to the downside IMHO

Melbourne Qindex 07:23 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

YEN-GOLD (124428) : Critical Point 126798


The market is under pressure when it is below the critical level at 126798. The odds for the market to close above 129791 at the end of this year is less than 30% (see details at the monthly cycle charts). Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

YEN-GOLD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 06:36 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP-GOLD (1028.6) : Critical Point 1004.4

The market is now outside the monthly cycle normal trading range which is defined as 1047.4 - 1215.5. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy. The "Monthly Cycle Directional Indicator" suggests that the market may tackle 915.3 in the next 2 months. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below the critical level at 995.6 // 1004.4.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

GBP-GOLD : Monthly Cycle Charts

dc CB 06:00 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Barrons
The Silver Rush at MF Global
By ERIN E. ARVEDLUND
December 17, 2011

It's one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It's something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.

That, in essence, is what's happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold "warehouse receipts" to prove it—they'll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

link via Jesse's Cafe

Ind! Rafe... 05:06 GMT December 18, 2011
I have a long side trigger level over the next few days @13102 which if breached leads us to 13417.

Melbourne Qindex 04:32 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Aud-Gold (1660) : Critical Point 1665.2


The bias is on the downside when the market is below the critical point at 1665.2. As shown in the webpage of aud-gold.html the market is within the expected range of 1634.6 - 1665.2. The market is now trading within the series of "Monthly Cycle Reference / Normal Lower Limits" and it is very unstable and the market movement is going to be very volatile. The weekly cycle pivot centers are located at 1574.7 - 1583.3 - 1583.5.


Qindex.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

AUD-GOLD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT December 18, 2011 Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

CAD-GOLD (1660) : Critical Point 1621.2


As shown in the profile of the monthly cycle charts the normal trading range is defined as 1656.7 - 1941.0. The market is stable when it is trading above the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1640.0 - 1646.4 - 1650.5. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the critical point at 1621.2.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

CAD-GOLd : Monthly Cycle Charts