Forex Forum Archive for 02/12/2011

sao cg 23:58 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   
Buy usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

Reading articles, studying charts:

on a technical and fundamental analisys, just buy USD against the majors.

There are plenty of H&S in favour of US.

And on the fundamental side for the next weeks, US data, Egypt, higher yields, Europe ugly problems are reasons to be very very optimistic on USD over next weeks.

The big USD bull season is arriving.

IMO. Good trade.

dc CB 22:40 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   
Hosni Mubarak used the 18 days it took for protesters to topple him to shift his vast wealth into untraceable accounts overseas, Western intelligence sources have said. The former Egyptian president is accused of amassing a fortune of more than ÂŁ3 billion - although some suggest it could be as much as ÂŁ40 billion - during his 30 years in power. It is claimed his wealth was tied up in foreign banks, investments, bullion and properties in London, New York, Paris and Beverly Hills.

In the knowledge his downfall was imminent, Mr Mubarak is understood to have attempted to place his assets out of reach of potential investigators.

On Friday night Swiss authorities announced they were freezing any assets Mubarak and his family may hold in the country's banks while pressure was growing for the UK to do the same. Mr Mubarak has strong connections to London and it is thought many millions of pounds are stashed in the UK.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ africaandindianocean/egypt/8320912/Egypt- Hosni-Mubarak-used-last-18-days-in-power- to-secure-his-fortune.html

Mtl JP 21:20 GMT February 12, 2011
Blog 10:50 - John Mauldin, with that piece you touch on a dear subject to me: debt. Not just any debt: gov't debt. And international gov't debt. And, most importantly: my savings purchasing power's prospects.

It is my assumption that money owed by one country to its citizens, or by one country to banks, or by one country to another or however the debt happens, is that it will never be paid back. If it starts to be getting paid back by borrowing more, like we are currently seeing in some European countries, it is the same thing: it will not be paid back. Ever. Ultimately some of these borrower may actually go broke. Indeed some are broke. We know that because their loans are being consolidated: they are being re-packaged and sold to more lenders and for longer period of time. It appears that the loans are being re-paid. They are not. They never will be. The level of indebtedness is not going down - only its growth may be slowing down and only maybe the monthly payments are being made more palletable. But level od indebtedness is not going down, it is not contracting.

There is only one thing that happens over time: the fiat currencies go down. Critically important to distinguish currencies going down relatively one to another afrom going down in their individual currency's purchasing power.

Currency's erosion of buying power goes on forever and it is precisely this process that makes indebtedness bearable. Increasing buying power erosion against the creditor means the power that he has accumulated up until yesterday goes down... down... down.... down.

This is what makes it personal for me. I look forward to your next few letters and am curious to see what you will suggest one's personal defense against buying power erosion be.

ps / two trivia Qtns:

1) how many currencies are there today of the currencies that existed say 60 years ago ?

2) of those that are left today, what are their respective purchasing power left today of their original purchasing power then ?

dc CB 19:59 GMT February 12, 2011


Imagined Auction-Primary Dealer-POMO flow chart.

Tonbridge AL 14:10 GMT February 12, 2011
Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the week ahead

Click here to access the videos

GVI Forex Blog 10:50 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   
This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on “The Future of Public Debt.”

The Future of Public Debt (Mauldin)

GVI Forex Jay 10:45 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   

UPDATE 1-Weber says European opposition reason he bowed out

Syd 02:20 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   
Long term interest rates are heading inexorably higher and the Australian dollar is coming down, according to one of the world’s leading market analysts, Charles Nenner, head of research at the Charles Nenner Research Centre in Amsterdam.

Nenner, dubbed the "cycle guru" because he uses technical analysis to predict future market moves, has a huge following among hedge funds, investment bankers and brokers.
Rates will go higher”, he tells Business Spectator, “we’ve already seen the low in rates."

His first target is for the 10-year bond yield to climb to 4.3 per cent (from 3.7 per cent at present) while the yield on 30-year bonds will move to around 5.2 per cent (from its current level of 4.77 per cent).

At that point, he predicts the bond market will rally, with bond prices rising while yields drop back, because of fears over weakness in the US economy. After this rally, he predicts bond prices will fall, and bond yields will again push higher.

Bond yields have been rising recently, over concerns that the US Federal Reserve might scale back its bond buying in coming months.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au

worth a read. need to sign in though

Syd 01:54 GMT February 12, 2011 Reply   
Much of the focus on the unrest in the Middle East, particularly with Egypt, is what the ramifications are for terrorism and crude oil prices.

From an investment standpoint, that's forward thinking. Some investors may be interested in looking at defensive stocks, or weapons makers, or -- of course -- oil companies and crude oil futures... But they may be overlooking something.

http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/tpg/smart-investing-daily/smart-investing-021011.html

Hong Kong Qindex 01:09 GMT February 12, 2011
Buy USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : One should maintain a positive note when the market is above 0.9583. The upper trading range is expected at 0.9877 - 1.0125.


Qindex.com