Forex Forum Archive for 02/20/2011

JERUSALEM KB 23:56 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Sell OTHER
Entry: 84 Target: 83.10-82.55 Stop: 84.60

sell stop on cadjpy

Syd 23:44 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Libyan Violence A Plot Against The Country -Saif Al-Islam Gadhafi

HK RF@ 23:40 GMT February 20, 2011
Saif Al-Islam on state TV promise to fight until the last woman.

K.I.S Libya is deep into a civil war.

Back to tribal!!!

Syd 23:33 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
PBOC Gov Zhou: Must Use All Available Tools To Fight Inflation -Report
PBOC Zhou: China Not Subject To Outside Pressure To Let Yuan Rise-Report
PBOC Zhou: China Needs To Increase Yuan Flexibility - Report

GVI Forex john 23:32 GMT February 20, 2011
RF fair point.

HK RF@ 23:31 GMT February 20, 2011
Seems nothing to worry for several hours more.

I don't think Gahddafi is out of the country, while his son on TV.

Syd 23:29 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Look out from mid-year this year as politics will hot up like the globe’s average temperature with the Greens set to take control of the Senate. And adding heat to the kitchen are the union bosses who are publicly sticking it to a Federal Labor minister.
www.switzer.com.au/business-news/peters-daily-article/green-unions-blockade-ahead/

HK RF@ 23:27 GMT February 20, 2011
Seems nothing to worry for several hours more.

I don't think Gahddafi is out of the country, while his son on TV.

GVI Forex john 23:24 GMT February 20, 2011
- Markets seem unsure on how to react to Libyan news. EURUSD back testing 1.3700. Disappointing USD performance.

Syd 23:24 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Jittery Chinese authorities wary of any domestic dissent staged a show of force Sunday to squelch a mysterious online call for a "Jasmine Revolution," with only a handful of people joining protests apparently modeled on the pro-democracy demonstrations sweeping the Middle East.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41692923

HK RF@ 23:19 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Saif Al_Islam looks relaxed. Talking about Libya may be spliiting into 3 countries, a country built on clans which can go later into civil war. Cite oil revenue as uniting the country. Looks that still in control.

Warning about a social economical calamity if the revolution will go on.

"We are not Tunisia or Egypt"....

HK RF@ 23:12 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Son of Gahdaffi on air!!!!!!!!!!!

JERUSALEM KB 22:59 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Buy AUDCAD
Entry: 0.9950 Target: 1.0055-1.0195 Stop: 0.9910

buy pending order

HK RF@ 22:58 GMT February 20, 2011
Now Libya will become what it is indeed, back to it's roots.
The underlying currents of tribal rivalry, primitivity, lack of education, Islamism and you name it.

This country may split into few territories led by local chieftains.

More or less Iraqi-Somali style.

GL/GT

Sydney ACC 22:56 GMT February 20, 2011
If it's true, let's hope the plane gets diverted to USA with mechanical troubles.

GVI Forex john 22:51 GMT February 20, 2011
MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:

- If Gaddafi has left question is who and what comes next. We may not know for a while. Instability in the region generally appears to be gathering momentum?

Syd 22:47 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/middleeast/21bahrain.html

Syd 22:41 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
TV Reports Say Gadhafi Has Left Libya For Venezuela - Xinhua

Syd 22:37 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Israel Concerned About Iran's Suez Canal Passage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEhfDsCLnrc&feature=player_embedded

Syd 22:32 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Anti-government protesters in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi have reportedly seized army vehicles and weapons amid worsening turmoil in the African nation.

A local witness said that a section of the troops had joined the protesters on Sunday as chaos swept the streets of the city, worst hit by the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year old rule
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/20112202148108558.html

GVI Forex john 22:31 GMT February 20, 2011
USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3921	83.90	0.9619	1.6395	0.9941	1.0232
Res 2	1.3818	83.71	0.9579	1.6329	0.9907	1.0195
Res 1	1.3752	83.41	0.9519	1.6282	0.9885	1.0165

Pivot	1.3649	83.22	0.9479	1.6216	0.9851	1.0128

Sup 1	1.3583	82.92	0.9419	1.6169	0.9829	1.0098
Sup 2	1.3480	82.73	0.9379	1.6103	0.9795	1.0061
Sup 3	1.3414	82.43	0.9319	1.6056	0.9773	1.0031

GVI Forex john 22:29 GMT February 20, 2011
- Second hand reports of violence in the streets in Libya. Opposition groups threaten to halt oil exports in 24 hours if "oppression is not stopped".
- EURUSD drifting lower.

Syd 22:28 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Feb 20 (Reuters) - The head of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya has threatened to cut off oil exports unless authorities stop what he called the "oppression of protesters", Al Jazeera quoted him as saying on Sunday
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/20/libya-protests-threat-idUSLDE71J0P320110220

KL KL 22:27 GMT February 20, 2011
Not suprise that this Muslim Terrorist would do that.....But since he is getting older Gaddafii thought he can DIE with Dignity and Praise from his people and leave a legacy......Unfortunately he wants to be the Kim Jon Il of Middle East or Like Syria....or Egypt......Now Muslim are realising this Passing of Baton from Father to Son is A SCAM!!

SCAM it is and like Mugabe more will die before he sits on the negotiation table........Meanwhile Gaddafi has begum moving his WEALTH to some "other Nations"......You see they will buy time to plan their escape route.....Go to his Palace ...and take his children as hostage......You do not negotiate with terrorist!!

GVI Forex john 22:23 GMT February 20, 2011
MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:

MON: Far East: No major data  Europe: EZ flash Manufacturing/Service PMIs, DE- IFO Survey  CA/U.S.- Closed for holidays

This forum thread aims for an active discussion of what factors (technical, economic. political, flows, etc.) are driving forex prices. Member participation encouraged.   

• North American (US. and Canada) markets closed EURUSD for a holiday Monday. 

• Major data, EZ flash PMIs  and German IFO survey slated. Both are frequently market moving 

• Chatter sovereign players have been USD sellers recently. USD could not hold gains on positive news. USD negative.

• Middle East political instability continues As long as it it localized, it is USD negative (Low Heat)

• More generalized instability could become USD positive (High Heat)..

Quito Valdez 22:17 GMT February 20, 2011
With all the horrid news no wonder why precious metals are up. I don't see why CHF hasn't been stronger, usually since it's the world's bank, it's safehouse city. Anyone know why it's not in more demand? And say all you want, CHF does have significant gold backing by "proxy". SNB doesn't have it on the books of course to keep Franc down in price but when the situatioin arises fellas, SNB will protect its country.

Syd 21:59 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
CAIRO—Violent clashes between protesters and security forces snowballed in cities throughout eastern Libya Sunday, as the country's leader Moammar Gadhafi struggled to crush an uprising aimed at ending his 42-year rule.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870349880457615607
4096202208.html?mod=WSJAsia__LEFTTopStories

He wont go down without a fight, and will take as many with
him as he can

Cambridge Joe 21:53 GMT February 20, 2011
GD// thanks for the link.
Very simple.
Very true.
For this reason I use two sets of macd and the one minute chart.
This way I make (mainly) good entries and quick exits it it turns out to be a bull/ bear trap.

Thanks for the link and I hope everyone reads it.
GLGT.

Syd 21:44 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
"The United States is gravely concerned with disturbing reports and images coming out of Libya," said a written statement from State Department spokesman Philip Crowley.
"We are working to ascertain the facts, but we have received multiple credible reports that hundreds of people have been killed and injured in several days of unrest--and the full extent of the death toll is unknown due to the lack of access of international media and human rights organizations."
Human Rights Watch earlier said it feared a catastrophe, with more than 170 people dead in a crackdown in the flashpoint city of Benghazi, while a lawyer told AFP the death toll was greater than 200. "We have raised to a number of Libyan officials, including Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa, our strong objections to the use of lethal force against peaceful demonstrators," said Crowley.

Syd 21:35 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
CAIRO (AFP)--Libya's permanent representative to the Arab League, Abdel Moneim al-Honi, said on Sunday he was quitting his position in order to "join the revolution" that is unfolding in his country.

"I have submitted my resignation in protest against the acts of repression and violence against demonstrators (in Libya) and I am joining the ranks of the revolution," Honi said.

He was speaking to journalists in Cairo, where the pan-Arab group has its headquarters, after Human Rights Watch said the brutal crackdown on dissent in Libya had claimed at least 173 lives.

Syd 21:29 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Irish banks spark surge in emergency ECB borrowing
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/ 2011/0219/1224290288536.html

GVI Forex john 21:25 GMT February 20, 2011
- Reports from Libya of violent clashes between Gaddafi supporters and protesters... Brutal. Keep an eye on this.

Vienna GD 21:24 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
i have ever read ... LINK ... from Dan Norcini

Syd 21:18 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
BRUSSELS (AFP)--Libya has warned the European Union it will "suspend cooperation" in the fight against illegal immigration if the bloc doesn't stop fanning pro-democracy protests, the EU presidency said Sunday.

Syd 21:01 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   

The Bank of England's inflation remit is "the correct one" and policy makers are right to look through temporary price shocks that have pushed inflation higher, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said over the weekend.
http://www.smartmoney.com/news/ON/?story=ON-20110219-000289&

thanks John :)

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT February 20, 2011
MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Syd- thanks for the German election results! You are the best.

- Merkel's CDU were expected to fare poorly in the local elections in Hamburg and they apparently did. Hard to see how this can help the EUR Monday.

Syd 20:34 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
China rounds up 100 activists to rapidly quash pro-democracy 'Jasmine Revolution' organised online
'We want food, work and fairness' protesters told to chant
Egypt-style get-togethers planned for 13 cities

Word 'jasmine' blocked on most popular social network site
Chinese authorities moved quickly and with force to quash a pro-democracy 'Jasmine Revolution', believed to have been inspired by the recent uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
More police than usual were scrambled to line the streets today, and there were a number of activists detained after online sites had organised staged protests in Beijing, Shanghai and 11 other major cities.
Citizens were urged to shout: 'We want food, we want work, we want housing, we want fairness' - a slogan that highlights common complaints among ordinary Chinese.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358834/China-quashes-pro-democracy-Jasmine-Revolution-force.html

Syd 20:25 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Iran ships approach Suez, Israel takes "grave view"
(Reuters) - Two Iranian navy vessels were approaching Egypt's Suez Canal Sunday before making the first passage through the waterway since Iran's 1979 revolution and Israel said it took "a grave view" of Tehran's move.link

TEHRAN (AFP)--Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Sunday called on Muslims to "remove" the United States from the Islamic world. "The main problem in the Muslim world is the presence of the United States. It is the biggest problem. We need to address that," he told a gathering of Shiite and Sunni scholars in Tehran for an international conference on Islam. "It is necessary to remove the United States from the Islamic world," the all-powerful cleric and Islamic republic's commander-in-chief said, adding that the country's arch-foe was currently weak.

Extremist cleric to lead White House protest calling for Muslims to 'rise up and establish Islamic state in America'
LINK

Libya 'uses mercenaries' to keep order on streets as 200 die in violent clashes
Thousands of Bahraini protesters set up a tent city in a Manama square as protests continue
15 die in Libyan protests and hospitals are reportedly running out of supplies
Shots fired in Sanaa as protests in Yemen enter their ninth dayLINK

GVI Forex john 20:24 GMT February 20, 2011
Westpac NZ Daily

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:

AUD short term momentum remains positive but is waning, and 1.0200 remains strong resistance.

NZD remains locked inside a seven-week old channel (0.75-0.78), with positive but weak momentum on the day.

Syd 19:55 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) suffered a heavy blow in state elections in the northern city of Hamburg on Sunday. The results could have wider implications for national politics.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14856559,00.html

Quito Valdez 18:14 GMT February 20, 2011
Norway es, looking back through the posts I see yours and want you to know I'm forever one of your fans. English is not a phonetic language UNFORTUNATELY (a hodgpodge stew of at least 8 languages actually) and therefore is impossible to spell from the spoken word, hats off to you for doing as well as you did! And the poster who snidely picked on you for not spelling this language correctly certainly doesn't express the attitude of this forum or its hosts. Jerks and superficial surface skimmers exist in all sectors including this one. Thanx for posting, hope to see more of you and I can understand perfectly what you post, don't worry about it.

Quito Valdez 17:56 GMT February 20, 2011
Since a more generalized mideast situation could distrupt oil egress, the flight to safety would be USD? John, just a quick question, with USD being such a fiat debt riddled cncy & getting worse (time bomb) and financials recouperating slow if at all, why not an FX safehouse bid to CHF? I realize USA is a huge oil producer et al and that's one factor favoring USD if oil goes up due to mideast issues, but USA's consumption of domestic supply, especially now yet in winter, eats up all of the production...making USA' thirst for imported oil more expensive for USA's factories, stores, transportation, oil byproducts, pastics, paints, fertilizers etc...you know, business in general...all that's USD neg.

Aside from that Obama's newest antic was to mandate gasoline has now 17% ethanol (grain alcohol) instead of the former 10%. Grain much needed for food will now become car exahust instead of food...another factor aside from climate issues, in grain futures rising. Grain rising is CAD & USD positive. Grain = liquors,cerials, pastries.

Sugar cane is an excellent source of ethanol, is any org going to develop locals where it's grown so corn is put in less fuel demand?

GVI Forex john 17:20 GMT February 20, 2011
USD MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

Latest	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD
Last	1.3686	83.10	0.9460	1.6236	0.9862
High	1.3715	83.53	0.9538	1.6262	0.9874
Low	1.3546	83.04	0.9438	1.6149	0.9818
Change	0.0082	-0.19	-0.0034	0.0067	0.0018

MVA	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD
5 day	1.3563	83.43	0.9582	1.6130	0.9866
10 day	1.3590	83.09	0.9609	1.6103	0.9895
20 day	1.3641	82.58	0.9525	1.6056	0.9917
50 day	1.3390	82.73	0.9559	1.5790	0.9964
100 day	1.3534	82.56	0.9673	1.5835	1.0051
200 day	1.3130	84.97	1.0157	1.5534	1.0227

TREND	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD
BIAS	Down	Up	Up	Up	Down

GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT February 20, 2011
MARKET CHATTER
Entry: Target: Stop:

"Low Heat"
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Bahrain
Yemen
Iran
etc.

The Middle east is a tinderbox. At the moment all the instability is localized, and therefore USD negative. If they become more generalized and, for instance, oil supplies are disrupted, USD flight to safety demand could kick in.

London ex 13:37 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
RF- good manners and kindness know no nationality. I understand everything es writes perfectly. His English is a far sight better than my Norwegian.

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT February 20, 2011
RF es is a longtime member here who does not not write posts often.he has always positively contributed when he does write one.Also he is a gentleman of the first order.

your diatribe was uncalled for.

additionally i wish to read it the way he writes it and not translated as you suggest.

Tonbridge AL 10:57 GMT February 20, 2011
Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the week ahead

Click here to access the videos

Hillegom Purk 09:07 GMT February 20, 2011
Norway ES is my friend. He is a kind man, and can do without your endless stream of nothing to say today.
Please address your posts to yourself, maybe someone listens than.

Syd 04:51 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
http://www.tradearabia.net/news/LAW_193736.html

Worryingly, in the nuclear unstable country of Iran, opposition parties called for fresh rallies to take place in Tehran tomorrow to commemorate two dead protesters.
The opposition website kaleme.com says the rallies Sunday will be a 'fight against religious dictatorship' in Iran.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358570/Middle-East-protests-Shocking-moment-troops-open-broad-daylight-numbers-killed-nears-100.html

Syd 04:41 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Sniper commandos yesterday shot dead at least 15 mourners attending the funeral of protesters killed during the Libyan uprising as Colonel Gaddafi's regime attempted to crush dissent.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358761/Libyan-snipers-funeral-crowds-15-mourners-killed-Arab-Spring-unrest-gathers-pace.html

hk ab 04:26 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
KL, sorry for missing the blessing. I was too occupied by the daily work and a series of unfortunate event.

Anyway, inflation is crazy here. Life is very tough because of the lies in inflation calculation. Most hk people have 2-3 jobs to fight for living. And those gov't idiots were still so mean to the low income group. Like the Chinese say, those officers really need to be cautious for their last few years of lives.

bc, that folk should read the past 15 yrs of forum history.

Sydney ACC 04:13 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
The West is deluding itself over the extent of China's growth

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8335699/The-West-is-deluding-itself-over-the-extent-of-Chinas-growth.html

Report that China is willing to finance a railway between Cartagena and the Colombian Pacific Coast.

China plans to ship goods to Colombia for final assembly then onforwarding to Europe and the West Coast USA thereby avoiding the Panama Canal. At the same time the railway trucks will ship Colombian Coal to China through teh Pacific Port.

I see repercussions here for Australia's coal and iron ore exporters - better for them to gear up and dig a bit quicker.

HK RF@ 03:59 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   


The protesters in Bahrain are not that peaceful.

Some of them are trained by the Hezbollah and no doubt the Iranians are behind all that.

To solve the riots problem, there is a weapon of choice(see attachment)

London SMS 02:26 GMT February 20, 2011
A very learned and informative article. Thanks for sharing with us ACC.

Sydney ACC 02:08 GMT February 20, 2011
Good analysis on NYT website:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast/20saudi.html?hp

Analysts at loggerheads about where these troubles will spin out.

This article refers to the Sunni led countries of Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In the case of the first two there are Shiite majorities with Sunni leaderships. In the oil rich province of Saudi Arabia there is a large Shiite majority disaffected with the Saudi leadership.

Bahrain was foremerly part of Persia, now Iran.

Given the Iranians are Shiites, the antoganism between Iran and Saudi Arabia, plenty of opportunities for all this to spin out of control.

Markets appear to be underestimiating the scenario.

Mtl JP 01:10 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
G20 strikes compromise on global imbalances - FT
The world’s leading finance ministers and central bankers overcame Chinese objections at the weekend to strike a compromise deal meant as a first step towards tacking global economic imbalances.
France secured agreement at a Paris summit of the G20 group of countries on indicators that would be monitored to avert future economic crises. But China successfully blocked greater scrutiny of its massive foreign exchange reserves and the use of exchange rates as an indicator.

http://link.ft.com/r/UXDMSS/V1941R/JKCPE/RNDZWW/9ZLFI6/6
C/h?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=19

Syd 00:51 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/blooms-replace-bullets-in-bahrain-while-the-region-hits-boiling-point-2220132.html

Syd 00:46 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
Homeowners should brace themselves for a "short, sharp shock", with house prices set to fall by up to 20% over the next two years as rising unemployment and public spending cuts take their toll, experts are warning.
Any increase in borrowing costs would cause fresh pain for households already suffering what King has called the worst decline in living standards since the 1970s.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/feb/19/house-price-fall-20-per-cent

Syd 00:42 GMT February 20, 2011 Reply   
What does the Arab world do when its water runs out?Water usage in north Africa and the Middle East is unsustainable and shortages are likely to lead to further instability – unless governments take action to solve the impending crisis
Poverty, repression, decades of injustice and mass unemployment have all been cited as causes of the political convulsions in the Middle East and north Africa these last weeks. But a less recognised reason for the turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Yemen, Jordan and now Iran has been rising food prices, directly linked to a growing regional water crisis.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/20/arab-nations-water-running-out