Mtl JP 23:51 GMT July 21, 2011
CB 22:28 ouch... usually those are some's famous last words
HK RF@ 23:51 GMT July 21, 2011
It is clear that the summit decision will not be the darling of the rating agencies.
Default is a default even a partial one and things may not be so rosy for the future too.
But from the market action one can see that some big banks have decided that whatever will come out from the summit will be great and prices of the euro and some other currencies were pushed up the whole day even on partial rumors before the final decision of the said summit.
This time the big players ignored the rating agencies and those who took the risk and shorted against them lost.
Norway es 23:42 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Max, Great call on euro! especially considering the time of the post. Gave me many pipps even if I am in holiday (pays tolook in here)
Thank you wery much for the pips!
Gl/Gt
Syd 23:41 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
LONDON—An escalation of the euro zone's fiscal crisis could have a "serious" negative impact on economic growth in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warned Friday.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053
111903461104576460151060707320.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Richland QC Mailman 23:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Good morning folks. Just woke up. Could not resist to short euro 4403. We are in again.
Norway es 22:55 GMT July 21, 2011
Nice chart C:B !
dc CB 22:28 GMT July 21, 2011
What could possibly go wrong? ;)
LA BV 22:20 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus rare show of humility- it serves you well - kudos
NYC ZEUS 22:20 GMT July 21, 2011
Te Ika a Maui OT 21:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks OT. All we can do is our best each day. The first time I saw tires spelled "tyres" was on the MMI display panel of my German stretch space frame saloon.
All the best! Z
tor dr unken katt 22:20 GMT July 21, 2011
i dont think it ll billions
Poland declared 250 mil
Syd 22:11 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Private creditor participation in Greece’s latest rescue programme will be very strictly limited to the Greek crisis and will be specifically excluded as a model for any other eurozone country in financial difficulties.
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/185853ee-b3b7-
11e0-855b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss
First-home buyer numbers drop by half
THE number of people buying their first home has dropped almost 50 per cent in the past two years. Treasury statistics supplied to The Advertiser show that only 6570 South Australians committed to their first home in the 2010-11 financial year, compared with a total of 11,197 in 2009-10 and 12,523 in 2008-09. Real Estate Institute of SA chief executive officer Greg Troughton said a slump in first-home buyers from the stimulus-driven highs was to be expected, but the numbers were concerning. Mr Troughton said if first-home buyers continued to dry up, it could trigger stagnation across the market.
Advertiser
Tallinn viies 22:08 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
as Estonia is newest member of eurozone we need give emergency loan to Greece.
Grrece gdp per capita is appr 75% of the average of eurozone.
estonian gdp per capita is around 60% I guess.
Im not sure where estonian government taking those billions for Greece...
probably estonian republic needs to do eurobond emmision now to get funds for greece.
right now republic of estonia do not have goverment debt.
strange world we live in ah?
to help richer state you need to take loan with market rate and give it to greece wth fix rate....
I do not think so. It doesnt work
Te Ika a Maui OT 21:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus - you're obviously a great trader. More importantly to me, you trade and post with humour and without rancour. Now, it's time to let the air out of those euro tyres...
NYC ZEUS 21:55 GMT July 21, 2011
Cambridge Joe 21:36 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks mate. Good luck to you as well. Am underwater for now but that does not matter nor cause worry. The market is the market. Can't win 'em all so we'll see. The self-proclaimed "experts" will be quick to openly give themselves pats but then they never expose themselves in open, just flip flap after the fact.
Happy Day!
NY JD 21:53 GMT July 21, 2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.442 Target: Stop:
Hi Zeus
I did as you told me short @ 1.442 eurusd.
I will wait for 1.375 ? To close position ??
GVI Forex john 21:44 GMT July 21, 2011
-
Market-moving items
may include: DE- IFO. CA- CPI, Retail Sales.
-
The
markets have reacted positively to the announcement of the EU Greek debt settlement
deal. There is still a lot of room for market disappointment with
the accord as it seems only to deal with Greece.
-
Importantly,
the ECB has gotten on board. The ECB has decided to be the
sole body capable of declaring when a creditor is in default. Thus
it will continue accept Greek debt as collateral. Despite its
declarations of independence, it is a political institution.
-
The
rising 10-yr bund yield 2.88% (+12bp) indicates a further reduction in
EZ contagion risk concerns.
-
The
EUR is ending the day up strongly vs. the USD and on its key
crosses.
-
EZ
flash PMI data (manufacturing and services) suggested that the EZ economy
is on the cusp of moving into a contraction.
-
The
HSBC flash Chinese PMI fell to 48.1 from 50.9. Final numbers for NBS
and HSBC PMI are due at month end. The AUD is often used as a China
proxy and it is weaker.
-
Optimism
about U.S.
debt talks has softened. There was a report (later denied) that the
White House and Congress had arrived at a major budget
agreement. Time is starting to run out.
Syd 21:37 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Early details of the financing package for Greece that were emerging on Thursday may have given some comfort to the financial markets. In particular the reductions in interest rates on official loans from the European Financial Stability Facility may have convinced some investors that Ireland and Portugal could escape a major debt restructuring.
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c087c30e-b3be
-11e0-855b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss
Cambridge Joe 21:36 GMT July 21, 2011
Ridgefield ZEUS 21:17
Good luck with this, I'm a little underwater with it, a situation I never enjoy !
I have a bank of indicators saying south..... we shall see !
GLGT.
Tallinn viies 21:26 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
my analyses here based on GV moving averages.
close today over 20d, 50d and day moving averages is sign that no time to stop., full throttle and up. as far as leg can carry.
maybe tommorow next set up appears - golden cross - when 20day crooses over 50day (if I remember correctly this term).
minimum upside target today 100 pips from close. more likely 200 ticks as momentum is there right now (people still shorting on upmove).
will see where we are going to find this top but next week higher bollinger on weekly first target - 1,4740
gl
Syd 21:26 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Strategists expect all three main rating agencies to determine that Greece has defaulted, because bondholders will suffer losses whatever plan policymakers decide to adopt involving private creditors. The options are debt exchanges, rollovers or buy-backs
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4bdcccce-b3a6
-11e0-b56c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Sgd6BWJg
GVI Forex john 21:18 GMT July 21, 2011
Check Out the NEW G-V
News of the Day Forum
for an extract of relevant posts on the
market news flow for the day. The real time extract is taken from the Forex Forum and GVI Forex.
You can also find the link on the Forum Directory under the "FORUMS" link at the top of our pages.
Ridgefield ZEUS 21:17 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
All in full max allocation short @ 1.4435
Happy Day!
GVI Forex john 21:10 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Pivots EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Res 3 1.4762 79.62 0.8299 1.6576 0.9562 1.1061
Res 2 1.4590 79.33 0.8268 1.6450 0.9528 1.0959
Res 1 1.4482 78.90 0.8217 1.6373 0.9489 1.0895
Pivot 1.4310 78.61 0.8186 1.6247 0.9455 1.0793
Sup 1 1.4202 78.18 0.8135 1.6170 0.9416 1.0729
Sup 2 1.4030 77.89 0.8104 1.6044 0.9382 1.0627
Sup 3 1.3922 77.46 0.8053 1.5967 0.9343 1.0563
GVI Forex Jay 21:03 GMT July 21, 2011
Don't underestimate the D.O.G. Index falling below .50. If it stays below it then a real negative for the dollar.
JERUSALEM KB 20:46 GMT July 21, 2011
Sell USDCHF
Entry: 0.8154 Target: 0.8109-0.8026 Stop: 0.8194
sold
Vienna GD 20:39 GMT July 21, 2011
FM ... remember the eurchf bet - 1.15 before 1.26 ? You may have noticed the final result - 1.13xx
I'll offer another one: 72 before below 36.
Minneapolis DRS2 20:28 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Looking at the daily EUR/USD chart, we have a symmetric triangle shape with the 100-day SMA as the bottom edge, and top edge containing the peaks of 05 May, 07 June, and 04 July. The apex of the triangle is 1.4400.
Over the past few days, price broke out to the downside towards 1.3800. Price has bounced back, however, so for now at least...this breakout was false.
Given the usual behavior of triangles, one might expect a huge breakout to the upside over the next few days. Price was on an uptrend before it entered the triangle, and the downside breakout has been tested and reversed. This leaves the upside to be tested.
The next few days will be critical for final resolution. Although price can certainly shoot up more, we are not quite at the apex of the triangle, so a false breakout to the upside could occur as well.
GVI Forex Blog 20:27 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Market-moving items may include: DE- IFO. CA- CPI, Retail Sales.
The markets have reacted positively to the announcement of the EU Greek debt settlement deal. There is still a lot of room for market disappointment with the accord as it seems only to deal with Greece.
Importantly, the ECB has gotten on board. The ECB has decided to be the sole body capable of declaring when a creditor is in default. Thus it will continue accept Greek debt as collateral. Despite its declarations of independence, it is a political institution.
Daily Forex View- 00:00 GMT- 22 July 11 Far East-Europe
Lahore FM 20:20 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.8184 Target: Stop: sl lowered to 0.8118
sl lowered from 0.8138
GVI Forex john 20:16 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
7/21/2011 20:00 GMT
Latest EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Last 1.4375 78.48 0.8166 1.6297 0.9451 1.0832
High 1.4417 79.03 0.8237 1.6323 0.9493 1.0856
Low 1.4137 78.31 0.8155 1.6120 0.9420 1.0690
Change 0.0148 -0.27 -0.0030 0.0134 -0.0020 0.0091
MVA EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
5 day 1.4197 78.90 0.8182 1.6149 0.9513 1.0708
10 day 1.4149 79.29 0.8229 1.6084 0.9572 1.0696
20 day 1.4268 80.08 0.8315 1.6053 0.9634 1.0673
50 day 1.4297 80.51 0.8458 1.6187 0.9706 1.0639
100 day 1.4301 81.30 0.8732 1.6239 0.9681 1.0534
200 day 1.3914 81.93 0.9191 1.6054 0.9852 1.0245
TREND EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
BIAS Down Down Down Up Down Up
GVI Forex john 20:03 GMT July 21, 2011
- Interesting the EURUSD has traded virtually dead flat almost all day in the U.S. after rallying earlier.
- Equities were up all afternoon.
- Bond prices fell.
GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
20:25 GMT (Global-View.com) July 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is
ending in North America at .4981, -0.61% from its Wednesday close (-7.42% ytd).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7257, -0.67% (-6.74% ytd). The forex index
is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1813, +0.53% (-10.63% ytd).
Against crude, it is at 0.4486, -1.28% (-8.01% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from
the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
Syd 19:47 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
DJ France's Sarkozy: Won't Take Greece-Like Measures For Any Other Euro Zone Member
Sarkozy: Private Sector Involvement For Portugal, Ireland Ruled Out
Sarkozy: Will Lower Rates, Extend Maturities For Portugal, Ireland
France's Sarkozy: Greece Will Pay Its Debt
France's Sarkozy Declines To Use "Default" Word
Sarkozy: Franco-German Proposal To Be Submitted Before End Of Summer
Lahore FM 19:47 GMT July 21, 2011
GD 37 at least likely in less than 5 trading days.if finds support good,else its lower thirties and then 20's.
tor dr unken katt 19:45 GMT July 21, 2011
no more magic
lets wait for the macd 8hr to turn
JERUSALEM KB 19:36 GMT July 21, 2011
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
1.4319 will be the magic point where a weekly close above will put eurusd in a bullish mode and below it will put it again in sideways mode for next week.
weekly middle bollinger band (1.4319)
Syd 19:28 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Eurozone debt crisis summit: live
Our coverage of the eurozone leaders' summit on July 21, 2011 to agree a second bailout for Greece and prevent the debt crisis spreading across Europe and the global economy.
LINK
Syd 19:23 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Moody's Investors Service is once again reminding investors Ireland might need another bailout just as European leaders were working to finalize a plan to give Greece more money. European officials and ratings agencies have essentially been battling in recent months as the raters cut some European sovereign debt to junk status while officials say they will stop listening to what the ratings agencies have to say. The war or words apparently continues with the latest salvo from Moody's. It is all leading to a possible tipping point where ratings agencies place Greek debt in default after a possible restructuring. For now, euro is up sharply on draft of a new bailout plan for Greece.
SG PT 19:16 GMT July 21, 2011
PBOC Official: China Should Reach 'Basic' Yuan Convertibility In 5 Years.
-- PBOC official says China should relax controls on yuan on the capital account
-- Forex regulator official says China will reform or remove some capital control measures
(Adds comments from China forex regulator official on opening of yuan capital account in last three paragraphs)
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China should relax controls on its currency on the capital account and achieve a "basic" convertibility over the next five years, said Ge Huayong, an official at the People's Bank of China.
China should consider relaxing to an "appropriate degree" its controls on commercial credit, securities investments, overseas direct investment as well as personal capital flows, said Ge, director of the central bank's personnel department.
He didn't elaborate on his view of the "appropriate degree" of liberalization in a commentary published in China Finance, a fortnightly magazine published under the direction of the central bank.
Ge, who previously served as China's representative at the International Monetary Fund, acknowledged that China's capital account controls are stricter than those of some other emerging nations such as Brazil, Russia and India.
He said China is in a strong position to move toward greater convertibility, as it has a stable macroeconomic situation and a sound financial system.
The PBOC official has joined a growing chorus of academics, government advisers and financial sector executives who suggest that greater convertibility could be achieved in the near to medium term.
Ge suggested that China should consider the needs of the domestic financial markets as it moves to "basic convertibility" of the currency.
He also said China should strengthen "counter-cyclical management" under a "macroprudential scheme" to deal with capital inflows into China's banking system.
"The building pressure of capital inflows may force us to slow the pace of any capital account opening," Ge said, suggesting that the pace of relaxation might have to be adjusted to suit developments.
However, he said China could use new hedging tools to lock up additional liquidity, though he didn't elaborate on what kind of hedging tools might be under consideration.
China's foreign exchange regulator should let market forces play a bigger role in the allocation of forex resources, including foreign exchange assets held by the private sector, Sun Lujun, director-general of the State Administration Of Foreign Exchange's Capital Account Department, suggested in another commentary in the China Finance magazine.
China will reform or remove some capital control measures, and improve the transparency and efficiency of its exchange rate system, Sun said, without providing a timeframe.
He also said the regulator will focus on opening the securities market and personal capital account.
-Stefanie Qi contributed to this article; Dow Jones Newswires; (8610) 8400-7331; stefanie.qi@dowjones.com
JERUSALEM KB 19:09 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6120 Target: 1.6245-and higher Stop: 1.6095
--------------------------------------
hit stop with 25pips-
it is not the end it is the beginning :-- WAITING FOR RESS. BREAKOUT TO GO LONG
=============
entered long at daily close above ress at 1.6152 and 1.6060 was my stop(the low of the candle which broke the ress line) with 1.6385 as target(the last candle touched this ress line).
Cambridge Joe 19:07 GMT July 21, 2011
Couldn't resist.
Sold EURUSD 1.4396 target ~ 1.38 SL ~ 50 but moveable !!
GLGT
tor dr unken katt 19:07 GMT July 21, 2011
sellers seems to take action @4400
lkwd jj 19:06 GMT July 21, 2011
granted uk has its own issues but its not as bad as either the us or eurozone. dont forget they are not members.
tor dr unken katt 19:05 GMT July 21, 2011
not necessary if obama strikes some kind of deal
then $ will soar ,
JERUSALEM KB 19:04 GMT July 21, 2011
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6120 Target: 1.6245-and higher Stop: 1.6095
--------------------------------------
hit stop with 25pips-
it is not the end it is the beginning :-- WAITING FOR RESS. BREAKOUT TO GO LONG
========
CHECK OLD CHART
Tallinn viies 19:00 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
for tommorow I expect euro range will be 1,43-1,4550 imho
Syd 18:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
A senior OECD official says it is possible to prevent damage from Greek default spreading and Australia should be more concerned about Chinese inflation
ABC news
Syd 18:51 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has informed Democratic Congressional leaders that President Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner were starting to close in on a major budget deal that would enact substantial spending cuts and seek future revenues through a tax overhaul, Congressional officials said Thursday.
nytimes.com
phila caba 18:49 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks for that offer again, it's worth it.
Cambridge Joe 18:47 GMT July 21, 2011
London SFH 18:34
LOL ! I'd like a job saying either it'll go up or it might go down !
OIl has / did soften... but I got tripped out on my sl ... tooo tight again, so zero from that.
Out of six trades today, four checked out at zero, having been in the black by maybe 30... 40 ... 50 pips.
It's not all been a waste of time tho, because two trades brought in the bacon. So, two winner vs. no 'losers'.
I'm OK with that.
JERUSALEM KB 18:45 GMT July 21, 2011
OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
NZDUSD DAILY CHART
GVI Forex Jay 18:44 GMT July 21, 2011
Caba, nice trade. It was a hard one buying at that level but worked out nicely.
phila caba 18:41 GMT July 21, 2011
closed long trade at 8630
London SFH 18:34 GMT July 21, 2011
great post Katt - so what she is saying basically is either it goes up or it will go down?
London SFH 18:31 GMT July 21, 2011
succinct ...time will tell
tor dr unken katt 18:31 GMT July 21, 2011
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD continues to make it´s way back from Monday´s low near 1.4000, but as Karen Jones of Commerzbank explains: “ideally this rally will remain curtailed by 1.4307, the 55 day ma, this continues to point lower. There is scope for a test of the downtrend, our negative bias will remain entrenched while below here, this is located at 1.4471
lkwd jj 18:26 GMT July 21, 2011
that was well put.
London SFH 18:15 GMT July 21, 2011
cos its going to1.56 first
lkwd jj 18:11 GMT July 21, 2011
why not?
London SFH 18:04 GMT July 21, 2011
Ihope he aint long!!
London SFH 18:04 GMT July 21, 2011
Ihope he aint long!!
lkwd jj 17:59 GMT July 21, 2011
opens way for retest of 1.66.
lkwd jj 17:59 GMT July 21, 2011
in case anybody missed it, Al's video pointed out risk in gbp if we close above 1.6282.
Cambridge Joe 17:35 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Perhaps my indicators are up the blink... but they suggest GBPUSD softening now.
AUSUSD softer by around 18:00
EURUSD by around 19:45
USDCAD firmer from midnight.......
I guess it's all up to those who cook the BIG books !
Mumbai AS 17:33 GMT July 21, 2011
OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Silver:
Why would you say that about silver looking at lower 30s ? Heard that from another source but can't seem to figure out ...
Vienna GD 17:33 GMT July 21, 2011
Pretty sure > 36 is the lowest you will get. If at all.
Huge derivatives deal on that number and that silver will stay over 36 until around mid September.
I will get whatever I can get there - with a tight stop below 36. But I think there is good cushion. So anything beyond 37 might also be a good entry.
Maybe also battlefield of the year around 36.
Or maybe we just fly after the initial spike lower after the debt deal is done.
Chartwise - 38 looks pretty solid.
Lahore FM 17:17 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
starting to look for lower 30s.
Hillegom Purk 17:16 GMT July 21, 2011
Guess we have seen this a few times. Market will be back to 1,44 towards NY close. Lets see. Second guess. Long e/u tomorrow when possible. We might not see 143- anymore.
London SFH 17:06 GMT July 21, 2011
already been invented jj-pick your asset class..
lkwd jj 17:03 GMT July 21, 2011
lets create a new etf trading vehicle for use by hedgers traders etc. market headlines . will they be bullish or bearish? this is the epitomy of nonsense.
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT July 21, 2011
reaction probably subservient to Standard & Poor's re-rating of Geithener's current 'AAA'
dc CB 16:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks again O...da boys.
12:42 ECONX Obama and Boehner close to major budget deal, congressional leaders are told - according to reports
12:42 COMDX Gold, silver pulling back on reports of possible budget deal
12:48 COMDX Gold now off close to 10 points on budget deal headlines; silver down 60 cents
12:50 ECONX Carney says no deal, report is wrong, according to Press Sect Carney - CNBC -Update-
12:51 COMDX Reversal in precious metals; gold back to flat
Tallinn viies 16:53 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
closed euro short at 1,4372. doesnt want to correct. more to come?
will go long at 1,4302.
shorting area 150 pips higher from here. over 1,4520
gl
GVI Forex john 16:51 GMT July 21, 2011
White House - No deal.
GVI Forex john 16:47 GMT July 21, 2011
- Recall the July 22 target for getting an agreement to meet the August 2 date.
GVI Forex john 16:45 GMT July 21, 2011
- Likely market reaction if they reach a major deal?
- I frankly don't know.
- Better equities imply higher EURUSD?
GVI Forex john 16:43 GMT July 21, 2011
NYT-Obama/ Boehner close to major budget deal
Richland QC Mailman 16:31 GMT July 21, 2011
Some post-mortem analysis on the pair. When yours truly was away, euro dropped to 4140 or within the day's Support 1 zone. On the hourly chart, that level is likewise 100 ema. On the 5 min charts, there was a positive divergence on both macd and stochs. That is what we call confluence of events to signal a BUY - technical standpoint.
dc CB 16:21 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
There is only one section of the proposed European Bailout draft statement that is relevant to traders: Section 7, bullet 3 which says: "To improve the effectiveness of the EFSF and address contagion, we agree to increase the flexibility of the EFSF, allowing it to intervene in the secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional circumstances and a unanimous decision of the EFSF Member States." Everything else is noise. Europe just legalized its own Plunge Protection Team and off balance sheet Quantitative Easing program with one signature. Good luck trading in this, or any, market which even the politicians now admit is nothing more than a central banking policy tool.
ZH
Ridgefield ZEUS 16:20 GMT July 21, 2011
EUR/USD is looking sickly.
Happy Day!
Ridgefield ZEUS 16:20 GMT July 21, 2011
EUR/USD is looking sickly.
Happy Day!
BLR virgoan 16:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks guys! Finally some pat on my back. I am most humbled with your appreciation.
Richland QC Mailman 16:05 GMT July 21, 2011
Nice gains Virgoan. Insightful analysis on euro's outlook and probable movement at that time. Would not expect to fall abruptly though from 4400.
London SFH 16:04 GMT July 21, 2011
Great shout virgoan ..although it was trading at 1.4140 and looking pretty soft earlier today...well done gl/gt
Richland QC Mailman 16:02 GMT July 21, 2011
Ok folks. time to rest. Quickly closed all euro shorts when 4360 held. Actually added 2 more possies at 4390, making a total 5 short salvos this evening. Nice net gains still. Would re-short on another rise. Euro at 4400 is a TOUGH NUT to crack based on falling Daily trend line resistance since April 2011. So on our point of view, time for USD to take some revenge from these levels.
Trading model followed: 1 possie 4347, 2 possies on +35 pip rise, then final 2 possie on the failure of 4400.
BLR virgoan 16:00 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Target hit and position closed. The parameters I use for my trading might be a little unconventional. At the end of the day as long as it proves to be effective , it really does not matter.Happy trading!
BLR virgoan 09:43 GMT July 19, 2011
follow up EUR/USD: Reply
On its way for more. Looks good for another 150 pips.
BLR virgoan 06:42 GMT July 18, 2011
View on the pair : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD(cmp 1.4045) had a weekly close above its critical psychological level of 1.4150 which indicates some more steam is left before the short covering rally fizzles out. I personally feel 1.4350 will get taken out first, before it tests the recent low again. Moreover the weakness seen in USD/JPY does not justiy the strength of the dollar which further gives me an indication that dollar index will see some more weakness in the days ahead. Putting together the above facts, in the near term I am quite bullish on the EUR/USD pair.
Cambridge Joe 15:44 GMT July 21, 2011
Just real quick before I go out.... most things I have speak of some USD strength imminent.
Just an impression you appreciate.
GLGT.
Minneapolis DRS2 15:44 GMT July 21, 2011
SFH that's a good point. Last nite a few stops were blown between New York and Asia trading hours.
Minneapolis DRS2 15:42 GMT July 21, 2011
Overblown? Who knows.
A lot of stops blown? Definitely.
Going down? Perhaps.
Slippery slope? Yes. How many more stops to blow?
London SFH 15:42 GMT July 21, 2011
I think it may pull back a bit ...not much though I think the tone for today is set and think we see another pop at 1.4400 befor New York close....gl/gt
GVI Forex Blog 15:41 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
The greenback has zigzagged through the US morning session, strengthening briefly before markets decided that the headlines coming out of the EU Summit looked like the event could be a positive for the euro. Draft summit plans suggested that an extension of EFSF loans from 7.5-years to at least 15 years was in the works, coupled with a lending rate for Greece lowered to 3.5% and an expansion of
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update
Belgrade TD 15:41 GMT July 21, 2011
GD // Yes but only failure of support at $74.20 would test primary support at 73 ... still holding ...
Ridgefield ZEUS 15:39 GMT July 21, 2011
EUR/USD looking a bit overblown here? Does anyone think it will go down? TIA
Cheers!
Vienna GD 15:37 GMT July 21, 2011
Suggest to have a look at the 4h or 8h @DX chart - there you have a major trendline break today - and on pretty high volume.
That is a fact for everybody to see.
Whether that is bullish - well that's your choice.
tor dr unken katt 15:35 GMT July 21, 2011
smokin weeed apparently for some traders work
Ridgefield ZEUS 15:33 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
EUR/USD delusions of grander grandeur is about to slipslide away?
Happy day!
London SFH 15:33 GMT July 21, 2011
Taken my loss on this at 1.4368 gone long...
Cambridge Joe 15:27 GMT July 21, 2011
Cambridge Joe 14:31
Oil: Reply
OIL. SOLD 99.99
Here's hoping !
------------------
It's taking it's own sweet time.... and I'm taking the dogs out...
So sl to entry @ 99.99
GLGT !
tor dr unken katt 15:20 GMT July 21, 2011
the problem is macd on daily recrossed generatin new buy signal , more move to the upside 4500 eventually 4559
kl fs 15:18 GMT July 21, 2011
agree Vienna GD
coming usd demise had been warned
cant see how usd can strengthen from here
GVI Forex john 15:13 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Jul 21 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 22:
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
- Far East: No major data due.
- Europe: DE- IFO Survey. EZ- New Industrial Orders.
- North America: CA- CPI, Retail Sales.
Ridgefield ZEUS 15:10 GMT July 21, 2011
Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT July 21, 2011
I wonder how much the USD would rally with a 20% treasury write down.
Interesting times indeed.
Ridgefield ZEUS 15:07 GMT July 21, 2011
GVI Forex Jay 15:00 GMT July 21, 2011
While I appreciate and respect any and all market related views, why a need to focus on opposing my ideas by singling me out instead of someone simply offering THEIR OWN?
To make a bullish or bearish call should not require any ire.
Cheers!
London SFH 15:06 GMT July 21, 2011
Well Katt you were right about 1.4400 much to my surprise when your posted it-I hope to see a print of 1.4300 in order to make my day...
Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
RTRS-PROPOSAL FOR PSI IN GREEK SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO AROUND 20 PCT WRITEDOWN ON BANKS' GREEK BONDS - BANKING AND EURO ZONE SOURCES
Belgrade TD 15:04 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: ~1.438 Target: 1.4/1.38 Stop: ~
Sell EUR/USD at ~1.438 ... will add if rise ...
... many times I have debated about the EU so probably no need to explain further ... Euro could still grow, but next week I see as a dollar positive ... this EU plan is just buying time ... but will see :)
tor dr unken katt 15:03 GMT July 21, 2011
since 8hr macd still wide open , 4500 looks viable
dc CB 15:02 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange ("HKMEx"),China’s international commodity marketplace,announces today the launch of a US-dollar silver futures contract to begin trading on 22 July,2011,following the successful introduction of its gold futures two months ago.
The new contract,launched on the back of surging global demand for silver,will trade in units of 1,000 troy ounces and be delivered in Hong Kong. Trading will last for 15 hours every day,Monday to Friday,beginning at 8am and ending at 11pm Hong Kong time,with a 30-minute pre-opening auction starting at 7:30am. Clearing and settlement of contracts will be conducted through the independent clearing house LCH.Clearnet.
GVI Forex Jay 15:00 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus, I may have read it wrong and not trying to get in the middle of something but think the intention was to show the other side of the market risk to your bullish dollar call. But as always, other stuff gets dragged in
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:56 GMT July 21, 2011
GVI Forex Jay 14:50 GMT July 21, 2011
+1 Jay
My point exactly. There is no contest. GD or anyone else can be the self anointed superstar as far as I'm concerned. No need to attack me for such high achievement LOL
Cheers!
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:53 GMT July 21, 2011
Vienna GD 14:41 GMT July 21, 2011
eurusd: Reply
And I have not spent a lot of efford to discredit you - but to rebalance the outlook.
Though mr. market might have discredited you.
_______________________________________________________
Well GD, in reading your posts you were quite vindictive and focused on my posts. Of course you could always focus on your own extreme predictions of the past and their outcomes (or lack thereof) You won't gain any favor by attacking others. It never works that way. And just for the record, 1.2777 wasn't to go lower than that level but rather to return to it as a super magnet. Something tells me that we will indeed do just that. Perhaps it will overshoot in the direction of 1.227. Like you said. Mr Market will do the speaking. Perhaps we just leave it there since our voices matter not in terms of what the market does, agreed?
Best to you!
GVI Forex Jay 14:50 GMT July 21, 2011
Look guys this is not a competition and no reason to get into a debate as your P&L is the ulimate arbiter. No one is right all the time so it is the body of work that be judged.
So pls, let's move on as the market is busy enough to occupy our attention.
Lahore FM 14:47 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.8184 Target: open Stop: 0.8138
long now.
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:45 GMT July 21, 2011
Mtl JP 14:30 GMT July 21, 2011 - My Profile
eurusd: Reply
GD 14:12 - zeus continues to ignore g-v request for trade calls with parameters.
____________________________________________________
Sorry chief. I'm not here to offer a free traditional market timing service with rigid parameters that don't meet the protocol. There is no ignoring anything. I post a few trades, ideas, themes, musings etc just like any other. Contribution is free and perhaps meaningless just like any other. My posts should not be viewed with any more or less scrutiny or excitement than yours or anyone else.
Cheers!
Belgrade TD 14:45 GMT July 21, 2011
Belgrade TD 21:36 GMT July 14, 2011
Entry: 1,1534 Target: 1,3+/1,45 Stop: 1,1 ... add at ~1.145 ... avg ~1.149
///
Belgrade TD 08:29 GMT July 19, 2011
... closed 1,1534 Long for ~100+ ... still holding 1,145 Long with same S/L
///
1/5 out at 1.178 for ~330+ ... new stop at B/E
Belgrade TD 14:45 GMT July 21, 2011
I just returned from vacation ... I made a little mess with files that I sent from the laptop ... I apologize for that ... I'll fix it and will send the correct information ... today or tomorrow ...
Tallinn viies 14:43 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
no need to fine tune,.
short now at 1,4382. small leverage
will add at 1,4480 double size.
no stop
first target 1,4295/00.
Vienna GD 14:41 GMT July 21, 2011
And I have not spent a lot of efford to discredit you - but to rebalance the outlook.
Though mr. market might have discredited you.
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:39 GMT July 21, 2011
Vienna GD 13:54 GMT July 21, 2011
I'll avoid calling you to the table on your many many extreme predictions that have seemingly come and gone without any notable event.
Anyway, have a good day partner.
Cheers!
Vienna GD 14:39 GMT July 21, 2011
My outlook is not opposite of yours - I'm just warning to be overly USD bullish here - with a lot of arguments -while you have just 2.
If that is to "discredit" - so it may be.
Like DRS2 earlier said - the point is not to predict anything (as predicting is alway a matter of one ego) here - but to recognize what mr. markets wants to do next.
And I see not many odds of USD strength.
That's what I wanted to share.
Tallinn viies 14:35 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
moved sell stop to 1,4375
fine tuning :)
Vienna GD 14:35 GMT July 21, 2011
Looking at the structure of the DOW ... around June 27 started an almost vertical leg up from 118xx to 127xx. Very fast and vertical. That is impulsive.
Then the correction.
Now another vertical and impulsive move coming? The 3rd of the last leg?
Why do I mention this?
Go and look at how long and fast the 1st wave was - that was the fasted wave north since the year 1640 or so.
I won't be surprised if we will see something similar again.
Again: with all it's aftermath.
I do not want to attack - I'm just going to tell you what might eventually be looming.
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Vienna GD 13:54 GMT July 21, 2011
eurusd: Reply
Zeus the topic is not silver or anything else .. we both were here already in 2002 and 2003 when I already was a Gold and Silver bull and you already at that time we had endless fruitless discussions and you claimed me to be an "idiot"...
_______________________________________________________
With all due respect, silver was my answer to your USD question. It is no secret that it was and has been extremely over-weighted in the wealth preservation allocation, instead of cash (USD). As for the earlier, I believe you are referring to 2005-2006ish and I was both long and short gold. As for the accusation of calling you an "idiot" is not only patently false but offensive as well.
You have spent a lot of effort today in attempt to discredit me. I suppose your market outlook is a mirror opposite of mine in terms of EUR/USD i.e. 1.63 etc. I can be 100% wrong and you can be 100% right. I am fine with that. I really don't care about being "right". All I care about is making some serious profit and thus I let the tape speak and trade accordingly.
Perhaps this will conclude the need to warn anything for or against any free speech here of mine yours or otherwise.
GLGT &
Happy Day!
Tallinn viies 14:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Hearing jp mgt just bot 1 yard eurusd for 4 diff accounts
Cambridge Joe 14:31 GMT July 21, 2011
OIL. SOLD 99.99
Here's hoping !
tor dr unken katt 14:30 GMT July 21, 2011
daily MACD crossed
Mtl JP 14:30 GMT July 21, 2011
GD 14:12 - zeus continues to ignore g-v request for trade calls with parameters. Zeus' original 1.2777 provided some levity. At that time. Repeating an old joke gets stale after while. fwiw.
Lahore FM 14:29 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4190 Target: Stop: 1.4138 for half
Lahore FM 12:22:18 GMT - 07/21/2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Lahore FM 14:34:48 GMT - 07/20/2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4190 Target: 1.4300/1.4620 Stop: 1.4138
long now.
--
closed half of 1.4190 long now 1.4263.sl to entry on rest of it.
--
closed more at 1.4392 for 202+ and left a quarter long running.
Tallinn viies 14:26 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
sell order at 1,4435 and the other one at sell stop at 1,4363
London SFH 14:26 GMT July 21, 2011
Looks a bit overdone to me--added to shorts ... got a decent average just need it drop 50 poips inorder to be back in thr game!
Golan Adoft 14:25 GMT July 21, 2011
EUR looking @ 1.4558
Richland QC Mailman 14:25 GMT July 21, 2011
2 more shorts at 4385. Let us see.
Vienna GD 14:25 GMT July 21, 2011
EURCHF has made an exhaustion move in the daily around July 18. Since that time in a nice and orderly uptrend.
Imho 1.20 is a given now.
And possibly you are even going to see 1.26.
If Spain or Italy or other EU states get into trouble - EURCHF will be the first to tell that story. We just have to follow the lines. And that excellentes of all risk indicators - EURCHF.
Minneapolis DRS2 14:22 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Are we seeing a new upward trend in EUR/USD, or just a blowoff top? Just curious I suppose...
Vienna GD 14:20 GMT July 21, 2011
Looking at the daily of the DOW ... there is a good chance of a HUGE leg coming. Very steep and possibly long lasting.
Just a matter of odds.
I do not predict it to happen - but it won't surprise me at all.
With all it's aftermath.
tor dr unken katt 14:19 GMT July 21, 2011
zeus is de captain of america
Vienna GD 14:18 GMT July 21, 2011
DAX has broken out of its trading range - and is likely going to see 750x again. Similar FTSE. Imho DOw going to test the recent highs around 129xx again.
Brent broke higher too.
The trade is risk on again.
And if there is an agreement on the debt ceiling more fireworks north.
gl & gt
Vienna GD 14:12 GMT July 21, 2011
SFH ... Last topic on EURUSD my friend.
My intention was to provide somen warning flags - that eventually Zeus expectation could be again wrong.
Like i was around 1.2777 and when EURUSD just went higher instead of lower.
Why is that an attack?
I call it "a little bit of help to get the sentiment more balanced".
Ridgefield ZEUS 14:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Larger and final adder for now @ 1.4350
Cheers!
Richland QC Mailman 14:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Ok folks. First Short salvo @4347. 4350 is key to further upside. Time to take risk.
London SFH 14:09 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
In theory the draft proposal could/would increase the allocations spent to peripheral economies.
But the document refers to â€Structural funds should be re-allocated for competitiveness and growth under a European "Marshall Plan".
So in reality my money goes to just giving a new name to existing funds…
Vienna GD 14:08 GMT July 21, 2011
Regarding gold and silver - I will sell most of my physical around end of this year when I think we will see the final parabolic blowoff of PMs.
After having hold and accumulated for around 9-10 years.
Selling not all - but most.
Based on cycle analysis.
So not just a perma bull.
But I will buy back half a year or a year later. Though this time way more silver than gold. As CBs will need to print more money and provide liquidity than ever.
Once TA tells me to do so.
For the final run into 2015/2016.
Minneapolis DRS2 14:07 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
A word on trading and prediction: Trading is very simple if you keep it SIMPLE. When something starts to go up, you BUY. When something starts to go down, you SELL. If a trade goes against you, then get the censored out of it before it kills your account.
The trouble starts when people try to predict things. Is EUR/USD going to 1.20 or 1.60? Who the censored knows. All I know is that no matter where it goes, I want a piece of the action. That means that I BUY or SELL depending on which direction it goes.
Richland QC Mailman 14:06 GMT July 21, 2011
Just back from client meeting. Looks like I missed euro's fireworks.
Cambridge Joe 14:03 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
I'm looking for oil to soften around 14:30... maybe 15:00.
Anything is possible of course.
Just keeping an eye.
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT July 21, 2011
- Data better than expected.
- No market reaction. The focus is elsewhere.
NY JD 14:02 GMT July 21, 2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Zeus question ??
Sell eurusd at 143.55 ?
Or wait see what happen is going long.
Thanks if you can help me
Mtl JP 14:01 GMT July 21, 2011
karachi maw 13:07 - frustration does not equal pain.
the key.... is to never allow decision-making about a loss to pass from you to your dealer via a margin call.
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-- ALERT --
U.S. Philly Fed Index July 2011
3.2 vs. 2.0 exp. vs. -7.7 prev.
U.S. Leading Indicators June 2011
+0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.8% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
London SFH 13:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Hey GD I thought you promised that your last remark was going to be your last-take your personal attacks into another forum please....gl/gt
Cambridge Joe 13:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:29 GMT
Yes, here here ! Well expressed indeed.
Vienna GD 13:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus the topic is not silver or anything else .. we both were here already in 2002 and 2003 when I already was a Gold and Silver bull and you already at that time we had endless fruitless discussions and you claimed me to be an "idiot" (in other words maybe) ... because the USD the only reverse currency and gold just a tradable item and nothing else etc bla bla ... today everything PM wise has quadrupled and the buck is not far of the alltime lows and you mark the PM and USD bull ... funny.
BTW I still hold silver I bought at that time slightly below 7$. So much for being right or wrong.
But the point here is what will EURUSD and Dollar do in coming weeks and months.
If I understand your view - your bet is still based on "USD is the one and only reserve currency" (as already in 2003) and "Europe/EURUSD will fall apart" because of our "insane" (or however you call it) political and monetary system. Huch and still the EURUSD is above 1.40
So I conclude - debt is no factor, inflation of debt is no factor, TA is no factor, Bernakes QE3 is no factor, all is well in America and everything is worst in Europe ... so it's just the two points remarked.
Ok - that should be enough for everybody to draw their own conclusions on how deep your thoughts and analysis is on why the USD will rally.
On the other hand - those drawing the lines will exactly know when and at which price EURUSD will start a leg north or south again - or Zeus is wrong again or which line or price he is right again. On the all important EURUSD/Dollar price.
So I guess everything is said - and mr. market will tell us the truth about Zeus strong opionion.
Zeus one more last question - where is your stop where you will give up in EURUSD shorts?
gl & gt
Lahore FM 13:49 GMT July 21, 2011
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:29 GMT
well expressed Zeus dear.good trades to you!
Chicago tt 13:48 GMT July 21, 2011
Viies I show the same resistance area on a 4 hour chart
Tallin Viies 13:43 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Sell orders setup at 1.4370
Lahore FM 13:43 GMT July 21, 2011
1.4620 may well be just round the corner...healthy price action!
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:29 GMT July 21, 2011
Vienna GD 13:20 GMT July 21, 2011
I dunno GD. Dead wrong or right. Called for 50 pip correction at the time GBP/USD was at 2.1, remember?
Well right or wrong dollar outlook or not. Silver from $10 on the massive upload. I dunno. It still feels like that was right.
EUR/USD seems broken. Selective defaults then not so selective defaults coming for Euro it seems. I wonder what would happen if the US treasury decided to selectively default on some traunches.
The Euro knows no sovereignty. If collusionist "member" states are allowed to participate in it, issue their own debt then selectively default, I would think there is such moral hazard that nobody could see such nonsense as a reserve alternative to the USD. There is no viable substitute for the USD as the primary reserve currency. Unions can posture all they want but when it comes to push and shove the Germans, French, Italians etc are not so unified in their common ideals to work hard in order for other nations to benefit from such ardent labor.
We can debate all we want but in the end the market will do what it does and that is all I care about. The market makes the news, not the other way around. Truth in Price.
Peace and best to you sir.
Vienna GD 13:20 GMT July 21, 2011
Final remark to this topic ...
Zeus - months earlier you have been DEAD wrong on that Euro and dollar outlook.
After ignoring my earlier question I REPEAT:
Please provide your reasons why there should be a Dollar rally.
Just because you are right on a trade or two or three (that happened also months earlier) - that doesn't mean that your final call for a MAJOR USD rally will become true.
All I want is - provide your reasons for your call!
Otherwise - your are maybe a good shortterm trader - but a worthless longerterm gambler.
For the sake of the not so experienced ones - EXPLAIN.
If you refuse - ok - than I and we will draw our conclusions.
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:19 GMT July 21, 2011
Looking at the forest, it would seem that EUR/USD will go under 1.30 and overshoot the critical mass @ 1.2777, making 1.2277 even more visible in its sight.
All IMVHO only of course.
Let's see....
Captain America is still around. Be nimble.
Happy Day!
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:16 GMT July 21, 2011
Vienna GD 11:37 GMT July 21, 2011
Hi GD. You are probably 100% correct. I never know the future so I just flip a coin so to speak and play the game. To answer your Q about what could come after Greece, I'd say Portugal, Spain, Italy then Germany finally blows out of the plan to bail everyone out.
Just a wild hunch. Will just trade the odds and enjoy the stories.
Best to you!
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:14 GMT July 21, 2011
London SFH 11:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Thanks friend. I think the forest is missed by the trees for most.
Cheers and GLGT!
nyc ws 13:12 GMT July 21, 2011
maw, do you have a stop for that position? Your average is 1.4234 and it would take a turn of events to see that level again today.
Vienna GD 13:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Here the bigger picture of that Chart
And for me it doesn't matter much wether it is a final 5th of the last leg north - or the final leg of a C wave correction (as many see it).
Point is this last wave (which started March 2009) has all the earmarks of a 5 waver, and where we eventually just have finished the 4th and are just ahead of the 3rd of the last 5th. If true that means considerabe higher highs for stocks. Maybe even 2007 highs to be touched again. With the highs expected into yearend. With commodities and Euro being be dragged along the same line and structure.
Just saying and throwing in these chart as enhancements of the currenct view of an USD rally to come ...
Minneapolis DRS2 13:10 GMT July 21, 2011
The right stop loss is up to you. You should get out when you no longer feel the trade is working.
After much experimentation, I've concluded that for myself, I should either let the trade run (with massive stop losses in the hundreds of pips), or I should get out fast (10-15 pips). Anything else is just a waste of money for me and my trading style.
London SFH 13:09 GMT July 21, 2011
I am with you Zeus=decent sized short at an average of 1.4290...gl/gt
karachi maw 13:07 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
i am frustrted. shor eurousd at 1.415 and 1.4312. can any one advise what sud be th sl
Ridgefield ZEUS 13:06 GMT July 21, 2011
Added large size @ 1.4327
Resolve is steeled.
Happy Day!
london red 12:59 GMT July 21, 2011
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
would again in part, 1.43 is a pretty important level technically and in essence the euro hasn't rallied yet/we haven't seen anything yet, while this level is still being held...in short i think there will be a quite a lot of short covering if 1.43 is decisively broken
tor dr unken katt 12:59 GMT July 21, 2011
even cable broke out
Vienna GD 12:59 GMT July 21, 2011
If this Chart plays out as expected and outlined - you will have a weaker dollar and a stronger Euro.
And so far we on track with that chart. Add QE3 and it becomes even likelier that that charts vision will play out.
Just saying ...
Minneapolis DRS2 12:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart, I would expect to see a target price in the 1.4400/4450 range if we go past this point.
It should be noted that price is currently around a few major levels. The 20-day SMA is at 1.4286, the 100-day SMA is at 1.4307 and the 200-bar SMA on the 4-hour chart is 1.4309.
tor dr unken katt 12:55 GMT July 21, 2011
4400 looks realistic
tor dr unken katt 12:54 GMT July 21, 2011
8 hrs studies still bullish
Tallinn viies 12:50 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
selling area met at 1,4325-35 but will wait a bit. probably able to sell much higher later today.-
would consider buying if 1,4240/50 seen again.
Vienna GD 12:48 GMT July 21, 2011
Just saying - on the daily you have a huge flag/pennant being built since April - if BO north you have PO around 1.58 - 1.60
So I would be careful that not to become another 1.2777 night mare.
My position is - it's still unclear to which side we will break. But given the "world is going under" scenarios of the last few weeks - and the fact of where prices in EURUSD and USD still are (say more or less unchanged) - I think one is well advised to think twice about a major USD rally soon.
Just saying ... I have no clue what will happen next
London SFH 12:47 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Note the iif proposal is smaller than has been talked about, only eur17 bln. Then again that’s a representative of the banks, so I would think to be expected and we might expect the authorities to come back with a higher figure anyway?
Also summit conclusion calls for â€marshall plan’ for Greece – that equates to a federal spending program. It’s not euro bonds, it’s not just shared liabilities (like Eurobonds), but it’s most importantly SHARED SPENDING.
That would be a very big deal if it happens, but I wouldn’t put any odds at all on getting Europe to agree to it -
13:09 21Jul11 RTRS-DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS SEE EXTENSION OF EFSF LOANS FROM 7.5 YEARS TO AT LEAST 15 YEARS -- DOCUMENT
13:09 21Jul11 RTRS-DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS SEE RATE OF AROUND 3.5 PERCENT ON NEW EFSF LOANS FOR GREECE - DOCUMENT
13:10 21Jul11 RTRS-DRAFT EU SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS: EFSF WILL BE ABLE TO INTERVENE ON A PRECAUTIONARY BASIS
13:11 21Jul11 RTRS-EFSF WILL BE ABLE TO RECAPITALISE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS THROUGH LOANS TO GOVERNMENTS, INCLUDING NON-PROGRAMME COUNTRIES -- DRAFT CONCLUSIONS
13:12 21Jul11 RTRS-EFSF WILL BE ABLE TO INTERVENE IN THE SECONDARY MARKETS, DEPENDING ON ECB INPUT -- DRAFT SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS
13:13 21Jul11 RTRS-DRAFT SUMMIT CONCLUSIONS CALL FOR "MARSHALL PLAN" OF INVESTMENT, GROWTH STIMULATION FOR GREEK ECONOMY
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF BANK GROUP PROPOSES EXCHANGE OF GREEK DEBT MATURING TILL END-2019 INTO 30-YEAR BONDS -EURO ZONE DOCUMENT
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF SCHEME REQUIRES CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS, BOND BUYBACK AS PART OF DEAL -DOCUMENT
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF DEBT EXCHANGE, AFTER COSTS OF CREDIT ENHANCEMENT, DEBT BUYBACK, WOULD CONTRIBUTE 17 BLN EUROS TO GREEK BAILOUT BY MID-2014
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF DEBT EXCHANGE WOULD LEAVE 71 BLN EUROS OF SECOND GREEK BAILOUT TO BE FINANCED BY EURO ZONE, IMF - DOCUMENT
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF PLAN WOULD "ALMOST CERTAINLY" RESULT IN SELECTIVE DEFAULT FOR GREECE - DOCUMENT
13:07 21Jul11 RTRS-COST OF RECAPITALISING GREEK BANKS ESTIMATED AT TOTAL OF 25 BLN EUROS - DOCUMENT
13:08 21Jul11 RTRS-IIF proposes Greek debt exchange for 30-yr bonds -document
Ridgefield ZEUS 12:47 GMT July 21, 2011
Added 1.4319
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT July 21, 2011
Weekly Jobless somewhat weaker than expected...
Weekly jobs U.S.
Click on chart for seven-year history
Minneapolis DRS2 12:35 GMT July 21, 2011
There's lots of price movement today.
I'd love to see what's going on in the "professional" trading rooms...what kind of orders are going through.
Ridgefield ZEUS 12:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Short 1.4291 afresh
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-- ALERT --
U.S. Weekly Jobless
Initial Claims (000)
418 vs. 410 exp. vs. 408r prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
3.698 vs. 3.705m exp. vs. 3.748mr prev
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Lahore FM 12:22 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Lahore FM 14:34:48 GMT - 07/20/2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4190 Target: 1.4300/1.4620 Stop: 1.4138
long now.
--
closed half of 1.4190 long now 1.4263.sl to entry on rest of it.
Tallinn viies 12:15 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Im out now.
100 pips easily :))
would like to buy again near 1,4150.ö
selling area 1,4320-30 area.
Tallinn viies 12:02 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
take profit order to 1,4236.
tor dr unken katt 12:01 GMT July 21, 2011
yes , fibo 4200
GVI Forex john 12:00 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
14:00 GMT- Bernanke testifies on the Dodd-Frank Act before the Senate Banking Committee, Washington, D.C.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Expecting nothing likely to impact the markets.
tor dr unken katt 11:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
this looks like impulsive wave , i think this upmove is just attempt to test highs and then the main down move will take place
London SFH 11:51 GMT July 21, 2011
Taken profit from previous long and gone short at 1.4190 fwiw
LDN dt 11:44 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
From what I am hearing from local banks, it appears that the market is still cautiously long EURUSD, but not over commited. Not surprisingly most of the stops are on the downside again and can be found at 15pips +/- from the LOD (1.4137).
Vienna GD 11:37 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus - and another argument: with the debt ceiling and Greece of the table - where are the NEXT major negative news?
In other words: what about a major rally in indices and commodities after everything is (temporary) fixed (for a while) and risk-on is again the name of the game?
Until the next dominos fall ... what is a certainty of course.
But imho weeks and maybe even a few months away possibly.
What about a rally in everything (including EURUSD) for the next couple of months - and then towards 2012, as many expect, things start again falling apart?
Vienna GD 11:30 GMT July 21, 2011
Zeus - with Greece out of the way - and soon the US debt ceiling higher - EURUSD should rally and Buck should suffer - not?
What is the reasoning behind your expectation of a stronger Buck?
Spain or another country following Greece?
Or higher rates demanded for US Bonds?
Right now I'm leaning more towards EURUSD strength, as even despite all the negative views - EURUSD just grinds along - and is far from crashing.
Though higher debt ceiling just means more printing and FED will support the whole stuff with QE3 or so ...
Looking forward to your explanations.
And pls no secretive cryptic babbling - but reasons everybody can follow.
London SFH 11:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Bang on Zues!Check this out:
LONDON, July 21 (IFR) - Banks are starting to think more deeply about the possibility (probability?) of selective default being declared, with one official/CRA (Credit Ratings Agency) strategy being to declare such an event late on a Friday, have it carry through the weekend, and undeclare it at the start of the next week.
The first thought is that undeclaring the selective default would come the following Monday morning, but thoughts are the undeclaration would come for a Tuesday morning to be more precisely timed to fit with the European Central Bank's weekly MRO.
Ridgefield ZEUS 11:07 GMT July 21, 2011
It appears that with each short-lived rally, Eur is being un-allocated. Looks like the predominant USD reserve currency positions will grow, then grow again. There is no viable alternative.
Happy Day!
Lahore FM 10:55 GMT July 21, 2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Lahore FM 14:34:48 GMT - 07/20/2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4190 Target: 1.4300/1.4620 Stop: 1.4138
long now.
--
some little magic in 1.4138 stop.safe by half a pip.
eurusd above 1.4190 and 1.4220 can restore previous mood and add some more.
Ridgefield ZEUS 10:54 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
I find it particularly interesting that debt can be selectively defaulted (presumably before the non-selective traunches) without a sovereign currency consequence. This EuroCollusionExperiment is getting out of hand. It is a failure by design.
Cheers!
Ridgefield ZEUS 10:50 GMT July 21, 2011
New session fresh eyes on the desk. More Trading On Target with NA hitting the desk.
Happy Day!
GVI Forex Blog 10:48 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
The euro dived on Thursday after Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker was quoted as suggesting a selective default for Greece was possible, prompting investors who had bought the euro in anticipation of progress at a
European summit to cut their positions.
FOREX NEWS - Euro falls in nervous market; choppy ahead of summit
London SFH 10:46 GMT July 21, 2011
Good luck with that plan viies...we are now back to the races-I went long too at 1.4145 just looking to job in and out till we fall below 1.4100 then I think euro will plunge...
Tallinn viies 10:39 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
went long again euros at 1,4142. small leverage.
will add at 1,4092
stop all at 1,4065
Ridgefield ZEUS 10:31 GMT July 21, 2011
Looks like Captain America has come to save the day!
GVI Forex Jay 10:31 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
10:30 GMT (GLobal-View.com) July 21 - The market seemed to be looking for a "shock and awe" bailout plan for Greece and so far all it has gotten is "shock" by the whipsaw price action. EUR/USD has traded technically, hitting a wall at the cluster of technical levels I have been posting as a potential attraction all week (high 1.4294). These come in at :
1.4294 = 61.8% of 1.4577 - 1.3835
1.4295 = 50 day mva
1.4296 = 100 day mva
On the downside, the key level is 1.4130 as below it would produce an outside day. Minor supports below it come in at 1.4100-05, 1.4067 ahead of this week's 1.4009 low. While above 1.4130, focus stays on 1.42 but only above it restores a bid.
It is hard to make a call after such a sharp move so how the EUR/USD ends the day will likely be important.
Keep watching euro crosses as this is the indicator of euro setniment. euro/gbp and eur/jpy have already traded outside days (marginally) while eur/chf would need to trade below 1.1609 to do the same.
Jay Meisler, co-founder, Global-View.com
GVI Forex Blog 10:30 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
The market seemed to be looking for a "shock and awe" bailout plan for Greece and so far all it has gotten is "shock" by the whipsaw price action. EUR/USD has traded technically, hitting a wall at the cluster of technical levels I have been posting as a potential attraction all week (high 1.4294). These come in at :
Tech Talk - EURUSD - Shock and Uh-Oh
London SFH 10:25 GMT July 21, 2011
As Juncker has just reminded us, this very starkly leaves open the "possibility" (probability?) of selective default being declared by the ratings agencies.
From here investors should start wondering how long it will be before the other "program" countries fall under similar selective default type agreements, putting their bonds at risk.
Hence the downward pressure should continue on Portuguese and Irish bonds, wherein an interesting hedge -- if the bonds can be found -- would come from the Greek market itself. Remember the widespread assumption is that whatever haircut is applied to any official purchase of Greek bonds will not be as severe as the market has priced in; i.e. a 30% haircut will leave the bonds trading around Eur0.70, whereas Greek bonds from 2013 and beyond currently trade well below this level (down below Eur0.50 on Tradeweb from August 2013 and beyond).
Likewise, the reality of a "selective default" will suddenly reopen the question of what the fallout or contagion will look like through the rest of the Euro financial system.
Among the policy options reportedly being considered is using EFSF funds to bolster bank capital if needed. This looks specifically oriented to redress fallout within the Euro financial system, suggesting investors start looking at strategies of going long bank credit at the expense of shorting bank equity on the other side.
Remember this was exactly what happened in the U.S. after Bear Stearns went under, especially in the case of FNMA/FHLMC etc (all the way up until Lehman Brothers). Similarly, investors should consider looking at selling equity of exposed banks (particularly French banks, for example) against buying equity in non-exposed banks.
Gen dk 09:55 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
GVI Forex john 09:44 GMT July 21, 2011
Everything in our Market Chatter Points below is subject to change with developments from EU discussions on Greece continuing to come out.
GVI Forex john 09:40 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-
Potential
market-moving items include: U.S. Weekly Jobs. Philly Fed.
-
Some
sort of EU Greek debt settlement deal appears to have been
made. There is still a lot of room for market disappointment with
the accord. The ECB pretty clearly is on board. After all despite
its protestations, it is still a political body.
-
The
rising 10-yr bund yield 2.79% (+3bp) indicates a further reduction in
EZ contagion risk concerns. Lots of room now for disappointment?
-
EZ
flash PMI data (manufacturing and services) suggest the EZ economy
is on the cusp of moving into a contraction.
-
U.K.
July Retail Sales data were mixed to better today.
-
The
HSBC flash Chinese PMI fell to 48.1 from 50.9. The official NBS PMI
tends to run higher than the HSBC PMI. Final numbers for both are
due at the end of the month. The AUD is often used as a China proxy
and it is weaker.
-
Optimism
about U.S.
debt talks has softened a bit after the "gang of six" in arrived at a plan that
many politicians can live with. It is felt this deal can get through the Senate.
The big question mark is still the House. Markets has responded positively.
GVI Forex john 09:37 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
09:25 GMT (Global-View.com) July 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is
opening in North America at .5018, +0.13% from its Wednesday close (-6.72% ytd).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7313, +0.10% (-6.02% ytd). The forex index
is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1804, +0.03% (-11.08% ytd).
Against crude, it is at 0.4563, +0.40% (-6.45% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from
the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
Syd 09:35 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Dutch FinMin: Germany, France agreed that selective default on Greek debt possible, enabling private sector involvement
GVI Forex Blog 09:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Potential market-moving items include: U.S. Weekly Jobs. Philly Fed.
Some sort of EU Greek debt settlement deal appears to have been made. There is still a lot of room for market disappointment with the accord. The ECB pretty clearly is on board. After all despite its protestations, it is still a political body.
The rising 10-yr bund yield 2.79% (+3bp) indicates a further reduction in EZ contagion risk concerns. Lots of room now for disappointment?
Daily Forex View- 10:00 GMT- 21 July North America-Europe
GVI Forex john 09:29 GMT July 21, 2011
- "selective default" permits private sector "involvement".
- EUR weaker.
Syd 09:13 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
EU’s Juncker says selective default for Greece is a possibility
GVI Forex john 09:06 GMT July 21, 2011
- Swiss investor sentiment considerably weaker than expected.
- CHf initially has sold off on the data.
GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT July 21, 2011
- Mostly better than expected U.K. retail sales data after revisions.
- GBP USD initially higher.
GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-- ALERT --
UK Retail Sales June 2011
Headline
mm: +0.7% vs. +0.5% exp. vs. -1.3%r prev.
yy: +0.4% vs. +0.3% exp. vs. +0.0%r prev.
x-fuels
mm: +0.8% vs. +0.7% exp. vs. -1.5%r prev.
yy: +0.2% vs. +0.2% exp. vs. -0.2%r prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john 08:18 GMT July 21, 2011
Flash EZ Services PMI falling sharply...
GVI Forex john 08:15 GMT July 21, 2011
Flash EZ mfg on the cusp of contraction...
Tallinn viies 08:13 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
good morning,
1,4225-35 good support area right now. previous day high was taken out earlier so next target somewhere near 1,4400.
hourly close over 1,4250 will cement this support and next leg up may start. brought up stop profit order to 1,4202.
Toronto MDunleavy 08:13 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1600 Target: 1580 Stop: 1610
The pair XAU/USD found resistance yesterday on 1610 (historical highest).
Then, a correction occured and the pair is trying to find support on the upper band of its long term bullish channel.
Indicators are globaly bullish.
We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 1580 is support.
The breakout of 1610 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards new historical highest.
However, if 1580 is broken, we will wait the breakout of 1560 to trade short positions.
Nevertheless ... Sell....
~~~>docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1r5tvs16QsoQfcng4CL1LxaWk5U9xx2XyLke4fv7UUdQ#id.jhowt65dxs6a
GVI Forex john 08:02 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-- ALERT --
EZ Current Account (EUR bn) May 2011
C/A: -5.2 vs. -5.0 exp. vs. -5.1 prev.
Inv Flows: 52.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. +20.7 prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john 07:58 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
-- ALERT --
EZ Flash PMI Estimates July 2011
mfg: 50.4 vs. 51.6 exp. vs. 52.0 prev.
svc: 51.4 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Tartu kuues 07:49 GMT July 21, 2011
me think we have seen the high
usually when market pricing something in its kind of overkill
and after announcment letting steam off...
Saar KaL 07:20 GMT July 21, 2011
EURUSD wants 1.4380 I think
Syd 07:10 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
IMF Urges Boosting of Yuan .
WASHINGTON—Inflation, real-estate bubbles and weak monetary controls pose "significant risks to financial and macroeconomic stability" in China, and Beijing should boost the value of its currency to combat those threats, the International Monetary Fund said.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424
053111904233404576458310732141884.html
Chinese manufacturing slumps to 28-month low
BLR virgoan 07:06 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Target hit. Closed my position.
BLR virgoan 16:07 GMT July 7, 2011
follow up: Reply
Accumulating aggressively on every dip. Will wait patiently until my target is hit. Good consolidation is seen at current levels. Outcome of the monetary policy was already priced in and has been taken in its stride in a matured way. I am extremely bullish on this counter.
BLR virgoan 06:15 GMT July 7, 2011
STRONG BUY : Reply
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
I reiterate a strong buy in this counter cmp (1.5970). Looks good for 200 pips profit from the current levels. I will hold it patiently till my target is hit. Happy trading!
hk ooozmeeh 06:38 GMT July 21, 2011
..........................
=========
done at 1585
=========
done at 1582 also (July 20)
hk ooozmeeh 04:12 GMT July 20, 2011
gold : Reply
Buy Gold
Entry: 1591 Target: 1645 Stop:
buying gold here at 1591 (long term) gl gt
===========
Trailing Profit Stop @ 1594 for all positions
Pretoria AHG 06:19 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Lahore FM 14:34 GMT July 20, 2011
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4190 Target: 1.4300/1.4620 Stop: 1.4138
Just to Thank you for very good call, I'm stil in this long.
hk ooozmeeh 05:42 GMT July 21, 2011
hk ooozmeeh 09:43 GMT July 20, 2011 - My Profile
gold : Reply
hk ooozmeeh 09:04 GMT July 20, 2011 - My Profile
gold : Reply
Cost average buy...pending buy orders at
1585
1582
1578
gl gt
=========
done at 1585
=========
done at 1582 also (July 20)
Syd 04:27 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
Australia's Econ To Grow Less Than RBA Estimate - Survey
)--Australia's economy will grow by 2.0% this year, or by less than half the central bank's official forecast rate, a survey of 12 economists by Dow Jones Newswires said Thursday.
The outlook is sharply lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast of 4.25% growth. The bank is expected to revise this outlook in its quarterly statement next month. Flooding that devastated part of its richest coal mining and agricultural state earlier this year and the strength of the Australian dollar were amongst the top reasons cited by economists for the weak growth estimate.
Australia's forecast growth compares poorly on a global scale with official International Monetary Fund estimates of more than 9.6% for China, 2.5% for the U.S. and 2.0% for the eurozone. The IMF estimates that Australia will grow at a rate of 3.0% this year.
The gloomier outlook from economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires survey coincides with growing signs of weakness in Australia's economy. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index showed this week an annualized growth rate in May of just 1.6%, down from 2.2% in April. National Australia Bank's business survey for April-June, released on Thursday, showed business confidence slid sharply amid weaker employment growth and forward orders.
Australia's swaps market is now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut from the central bank by November and another cut within 12 months to help stimulate growth. Rate increases that started in October 2009 have helped the Australian dollar gain 20% against the U.S. greenback over the same period. But the strength of the currency and lending rates as high as 4.75% have watered down the wider benefits of a mining boom that policy makers describe in terms of a once in a century opportunity for Australia.
Syd 04:21 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
In the 1990s, when European monetary union was a plan but not a reality, I would explain to students that the effect was to replace currency risk by credit risk.
With exchange rates free to float, loose monetary and fiscal policies would sooner or later lead to a fall in the exchange rate. That expectation implied higher interest rates. Currency markets would limit the scope for bad economic policies.
Monetary union meant sovereign governments could no longer print money. That change put them in the same position as any other borrower: and substantially increased the likelihood of default. Like businesses or households, governments would find that profligacy made loans more and more costly and difficult to obtain. Credit markets would limit the scope for bad economic policies.
This was how decentralised budgeting worked in the US. The federal government does not guarantee the solvency of the states, which can and do go bust
Perhaps we could instead learn some lessons from across the Atlantic. The US has, on the whole successfully, combined an affirmation of states’ rights with a powerful federal government, and has maintained a stable currency union since, well, 1865.
The Financial Times
Syd 04:08 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
A great number of readers have asked how the euro can possibly be so strong given the existential crisis engulfing Euroland.
.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
tor dr unken katt 04:06 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
b
HK RF@ 04:04 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
China contracts and Europe will decide about a kind of selective default. Looks like AUD will not be a safe haven for few days.
Syd 03:33 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
HSBC China manufacturing PMI falls to a 28-month low of 48.9 in July from 50.1 in June, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity which could fuel concerns that an economic slowdown may accelerate in 2H due to Beijing's tightening measures. The headline flash PMI is below 50 for the first time since July 2010. HSBC economist Hongbin Qu says "this implies that June's rebound in industrial production was just temporary. We expect industrial growth to decelerate in the coming months as tightening measures continue to filter through." The previous lowest level for the HSBC China manufacturing PMI was 44.8 in March 2009.
dc CB 03:17 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
food Inflation
Syd 02:31 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
China HSBC July Flash PMI 48.9 Vs June Final 50.1 - Reuters
dc CB 02:29 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
a far more relevant observation is what the man in charge of the world's largest bond portfolio -none other than the FRBNY's Brian Sack- has to say about what the future of QE holds, which he conveniently has done in a speech to Money Marketeers today titled, "The SOMA Portfolio at $2.654 Trillion." In addition to the future of the Fed's SOMA, Sack shares some other much needed information such as the trading details of the QE program from the view of the Fed, his perspective on the QE2's strengths and weaknesses, and his overall assessment of the program's effectiveness. Not to mention his admission that the Fed now carries 200% more interest rate risk than it should...
Now What
dc CB 02:15 GMT July 21, 2011
:)
Syd 02:05 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
IMF: China 2012 Growth Forecast At 9.5%
IMF: Sees China Current Account Surplus Expanding To 6% Of GDP
IMF: Chinese Yuan Remains Substantially Below Fundamentals
IMF: Estimates Yuan Undervalued Between 3%-23%
IMF: Inflation, Property Bubble, Credit Quality Risks To Chinese Economy
China IMF Representative Questions Independence Of Fund Assessment
IMF: Chinese Yuan Remains Substantially Below Fundamentals
dc CB 01:23 GMT July 21, 2011
We are coming to the end of the road for debt talks both in Europe and the U.S. French president Sarkozy has flown to Berlin trying to convince the Germans to go along with a new “emergency” fund PIGS and others could tap into to avoid default. It works like a HELOC without the collateral. The Germans would bear the brunt of the funding of course and haven’t been enthusiastic. But, there’s little doubt the future of the EU and euro are at stake if they can’t come to a deal.
DEBT TALKS GO INTO OVERDRIVE
Sydney ACC 01:19 GMT July 21, 2011
So who pays the tax?
Shareholders -faced with reduced returns on investment, will park their money elsewhere.
Borrowers - increased lending margins will borrow from banks unaffected by the tax.
Depositors - lower rates, same as above.
Usual European solution to a problem. Smells like the Tobin tax.
Personally I can't see a permanent solution to this problem other than evicting the peripherals. There is no way they can compete with Germany or the northern economies in the long term. The EUR will go the same way as the ERM and the Snake. This is not like a federal system as it applies in Australia or US, German taxpayers are not going to willingly subsidise the southern Europeans indeffinitely like happens here with Tasmania, SA and NT. (NSW is heading the same way!)
Syd 01:09 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
lending binge in 2009 and 2010, with $1.3 trillion loaned to local governments, has left the banks exposed to the risk of default. Among institutions, though, big banks look better able to weather any brewing storm.
Bank of Nanjing and China Everbright Bank, which in June delayed its Hong Kong initial public offering, both have 20% of their loan books with local-government financing vehicles. With the smaller banks' higher exposure only partially covered by higher capital, that is a source of concern.
All of China's banks have taken a beating this year, with valuations across the sector sharply down. But with the local-government debt drama still in its first act, and more tightening policy on the way, it is the little banks that will be in the biggest trouble.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311
1903461104576457910125527984.html
dc CB 01:08 GMT July 21, 2011
hey Zeus....I'll never take it the wrong way...cheers
ps. optioned and waiting for the fall
Oh and then there's the air.
Business groups called on the Obama administration Tuesday to delay new regulations aimed at curbing smog nationwide, arguing that manufacturers cannot afford to install new pollution controls given the sluggish economy.
Wash Post.
Breathing and Staying Alive Costs too much.
Syd 01:01 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001
424053111903554904576457753882732120.html
Golan Adoft 00:41 GMT July 21, 2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Target @ 1.4155
GVI Forex Jay 00:12 GMT July 21, 2011
Reply
This appeared to be the trigger for the earlier euro spike although it should not be a surprise that they would agree on terms for the bailout ahead of Thursday's summit--
SydoJoe 22:29 GMT July 20, 2011
greece: Reply
France and germany have reached joint position on financial bailout for greece. french delegation
As posted on:
GVI Forex
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