Brock Thor 23:58 GMT March 21, 2012
Americans buy firearms before democrats try to get
re-elected. Smith and Wesson doing good also.
Ammunition sales are through the roof.
Same thing happened just before and especially just after obama was elected.
Gun dealers ran out of stock of ammo.
Democtatic (potential)leaders are good for the gun business.
Boston eFX 22:59 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
(Dow Jones via eFXnews)Pacific Investment Management Co. has for the remainder of this year abandoned its long-held negative stance against the dollar and is joining others who are predicting it will rise over the short-term.
Scott Mather, the head of global bond portfolio management at Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pimco, said Wednesday that the giant asset management firm is buying.....
Pimco Goes Long Dollar Vs Euro, GBP, AUD - Global Bond Mgr Mather (full story)
Cambridge Joe 22:46 GMT March 21, 2012
It's not going as I want it to.... so I'm leaving it with a V tight sl.
http://youtu.be/T6b1PNWqpbM
Lahore FM 22:07 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
last reading of Chinese pmi was 49.7.once more today under 50 can be really depressing for some currencies
dc CB 21:55 GMT March 21, 2012
But Santa makes kids behave and listen to their parents.
And he must be real...cause every Christmas Eve NORAD traks his sled...it's on the TV news
GVI Forex Alert 21:52 GMT March 21, 2012
-- Market-Update --
Wednesday, March 21, 2012 5:45:02 PM
*(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 2.2%E
Lower NZD on the GDP miss
TradetheNews.com
dc CB 21:51 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Sturm, Ruger & Co reports strong Q1 bookings (42.30 -0.36)
Co announced today that for the first quarter 2012, the Company has received orders for more than one million units. Therefore, the Company has temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders.
CEO Michael O. Fifer made the following comments: The Company's Retailer Programs that were offered from January 1, 2012 through February 29, 2012 were very successful and generated significant orders from retailers to independent wholesale distributors for Ruger firearms. Year-to-date, the independent wholesale distributors placed orders with the Company for more than one million Ruger firearms.
Despite the Company's continuing successful efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders. Consequently, the Company has temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders. The Company expects to resume the normal acceptance of orders by the end of May 2012.
Cambridge Joe 21:40 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Closed the e/$ long for zero. Gone short. 3212.
GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Just checking in? Visit the G-V
News of the Day Forum
for key posts from the Forex Forum and GVI Forex.
ALSO periodic bond yield updates from GVI Forex. Link in the Forum Directory under the "FORUMS" or "Today's News" at the top of forums.
GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
-
Key
Items: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US-
Weekly jobs..
-
U.S. Existing Homes Sales
came in as expected. A slow recovery continues. This is the widest measure of housing. Data released on Tuesday
were in line with expectations. A strong housing turnaround is still needed
to improve employment.
-
Testimony
by Fed Chairman Bernanke before Congress today on Europe had no
impact.
His prepared text was leaked to the press Tuesday.
-
Bond
markets were in the spotlight again with prices gaining (yields
falling), Tue U.S.10-yr is ending at 2.29%, -8bps.
-
Thursday
sees key flash PMI reports from China and the EZ.
Your thoughts, comments questions, additions, etc, needed and appreciated!
Swan Valley Trout 20:54 GMT March 21, 2012
Don't believe everything you read. The author begins with confusing polygimasts with mormons. That's like saying Al Qaeda is the common name for Islam
Lahore FM 20:53 GMT March 21, 2012
Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.9124 Target: Stop: 0.9065
entered long...a 2nd time in few days
GVI Forex Blog 20:49 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Key Items: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly jobs..
U.S. Existing Homes Sales came in as expected. A slow recovery continues. This is the widest measure of housing. Data released on Tuesday were in line with expectations. A strong housing turnaround is still needed to improve employment.
Forex Trading Talk 00:00 GMT 22 March 2012
GVI Forex Blog 20:37 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
The euro dropped from a two-week high against the dollar and a nearly five-month peak versus the yen on Wednesday, hurt by widening interest rate
differentials between safe-haven German debt and peripheral
bonds, suggesting renewed euro zone worries.
FOREX NEWS - Euro slides as peripheral yields rise on Spain woes
Cambridge Joe 20:31 GMT March 21, 2012
Ind! Rafe... 19:33
Cheers Rafe. GLGT.
Syd 20:29 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
High-frequency traders have caused U.S. commodity futures prices to disconnect from market fundamentals of supply and demand since the 2008 financial crisis, according to one of the authors of a forthcoming U.N. report.
LINK
GVI Forex Blog 20:13 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
AUD briefly and slightly breached the 1.0423 support level required to keep the short-term bullish view alive. A sustained breach today would warn of a larger fall ahead. NZD is comfortably above the comparable support level, 0.8060.
Forex- Morning Report (Westpac)
Lahore FM 20:08 GMT March 21, 2012
a weekly bullish signal was last seen around march 1st in 2009 on gold weekly chart.now i have a bearish signal.1762 and 1772 are the strong resistances that may hold it for a serious retracement.
JERUSALEM KB 20:07 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell Gold
Entry: 1650 Target: 1618-1590 Stop: 1660
putting target 1
JERUSALEM KB 20:02 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell Gold
Entry: 1650 Target: 1590 Stop: 1660
sold
JERUSALEM KB 19:58 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 1.0445 Target: Stop: 1.0530
sold
Lahore FM 19:56 GMT March 21, 2012
Swan Valley Trout 19:17:10 GMT - 03/21/2012
cheers Trout!
JERUSALEM KB 19:55 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell AUDJPY
Entry: 87.25 Target: Stop: 87.87
sold
GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of
data in Excel spreadsheet format.
GVI Forex Blog 19:49 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
19:50 GMT (Global-View.com) March 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Wednesday in North America at .5181, -0.23% from its Tuesday close (-3.70% vs. end-2010).
Global-View D.O.G. Index March 21, 2012 U.S. Close
GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
19:50 GMT (Global-View.com) March 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power
index is ending Wednesday in North America at .5181, -0.23% from its Tuesday close (-3.70% vs. end-2010).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7812, -0.03% (+0.39% vs. end-2010). The
forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1744, -0.16% (-14.03% end-2010).
Against crude, it is at 0.4162, -1.41% (-14.67% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against
levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
dc CB 19:43 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
He sees you when you're sleeping
He knows when you're awake
He knows if you've been bad or good
So be good for goodness sake!
O! You better watch out!
You better not cry
Better not pout
I'm telling you why
Merry Christmas from the O
Ind! Rafe... 19:33 GMT March 21, 2012
JOE// just saw your post and thought i might let you guys know, cable been a buy for the past week, same with yen since the beginning of last month.... the sell signal can come at any time though but only after a multi day trading range.
gl gt
tia
Swan Valley Trout 19:17 GMT March 21, 2012
"Lahore FM 17:41 GMT March 21, 2012 - My Profile
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
there are no hi or low levels..."
You are the master FM. Levels are just levels. Not high, low, good or bad...only opportunities.
I am on board with your USD + view as the current market has painted.
Good Luck!
Swan Valley Trout 18:52 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Apple now at $609. No way this is possible said the shorts.
Can hear their teeth being chizzled away on the grinding wheel. Without any teeth remaining, AAPL will move freely.
LA BV 18:40 GMT March 21, 2012
How it trades v 110 will give you the answer.
nyc s 18:32 GMT March 21, 2012
Is a top in the EURJPY?
Lahore FM 17:41 GMT March 21, 2012
there are no hi or low levels Kwun
Central Kwun 17:36 GMT March 21, 2012
FM, you short gold at this low level
Lahore FM 17:35 GMT March 21, 2012
1.0515 shud work for any short
Lahore FM 17:34 GMT March 21, 2012
for audusd any slip under 1.0360 would get us 0.9800 if not lower.
Lahore FM 17:32 GMT March 21, 2012
another week or less and its end of days for oil upside too..only event risk that a stop shud take care of
Lahore FM 17:27 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell Gold
Entry: 1650.80 Target: Stop: 1659.50
sold gold.
earlier short stopepd at 1662 for a small profit with partial clsoe made earlier offsetting!
Lahore FM 17:23 GMT March 21, 2012
jpy crosses have very limited upside and many times that downside next few days imho
Lahore FM 17:19 GMT March 21, 2012
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 0.9927 Target: Stop: 0.9870
long here
Lahore FM 17:19 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5848 Target: Stop: 1.5868 bid
sold.
Lahore FM 17:18 GMT March 21, 2012
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
two 4 h closes under 1.3190 in quieter hours will be enough to close the upside chapter imho!
nyc ws 17:09 GMT March 21, 2012
This market feels beaten after a day like today. We need an outside day!!!
Central Kwun 17:06 GMT March 21, 2012
Buy Gold
Entry: 1650 Target: Stop:
started
Saar KaL 16:55 GMT March 21, 2012
I love the label
JUNK STOCKS
Impossible
Noway
Nobody knows (That is my Favorited...dude been around the world and interviewed everyone alive)...heheh
These are Politicians, advertising words...
according to the experts in S.A Mandela would never leave Jail.
Go back in time and ask them if he would be president..
hmmm... you are crazy...there is NoWay...etc
Saar KaL 16:44 GMT March 21, 2012
Haifa/
your rule is not general
if Something "Theory"...can be shown at least empirically that works 95% of the time...becomes sort of a rule...
after a long time becomes sort of a law.
Your Generalization is as bad an example as mine.
Maybe cause aapl does not obey your rule?
Haifa ac 16:38 GMT March 21, 2012
Saar KaL 16:30 GMT March 21, 2012 - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
Haifa/
are you saying General rule --->
Trade Penny stocks = Lost Money?
then they should take them out of the MKT...right?
Same way with aapl in 1980s...right?//
Very bad example. Almost snake oil type hype.
for every AAPL there are hundreds of JUNK STOCKS that expire worthless
The trouble is that people go crazy and by thousands of them at a clip and lose FORTUNES
I wish you good luck with your selection
Saar KaL 16:33 GMT March 21, 2012
these will double in 30 days
CNAM
GMXR
CXZ
CNIT
MTSN
DRYS
Saar KaL 16:30 GMT March 21, 2012
Haifa/
are you saying General rule --->
Trade Penny stocks = Lost Money?
then they should take them out of the MKT...right?
Same way with aapl in 1980s...right?
Cambridge Joe 16:28 GMT March 21, 2012
closed $/y for +30 now trying small e/$ long.
$/X looks to soften between around here to 18:40.
Back later.
Haifa ac 16:16 GMT March 21, 2012
More people lost money in PENNY STOCKS than in any other stock type market
See the Toronto stock exhcange or was one in Winnipeg, dont remember
market is close to all time high and someone is willing to sell you those stocks for less than a dollar
Are they idiots?
Saar KaL 16:06 GMT March 21, 2012
gmxr
cnam
cool
Buying these stocks guys
Mtl JP 16:05 GMT March 21, 2012
Bernanke says gold standard wouldn't solve problems.
Mar 20, 2012 WASHINGTON (Reuters) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday took aim at proponents of the gold standard, saying that such a system handicaps the government's ability to address economic conditions. Bernanke spoke in the first of a series of four public lectures at George Washington University that is the central bank's latest effort to counter a raft of negative public sentiment that has arisen from its handling of the financial crisis. The former Princeton economics professor delivers a second lecture on Thursday and two more next week. .../..
Cambridge Joe 15:52 GMT March 21, 2012
Cheers Mick !
Central Kwun 15:44 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Entry: 1650 Target: Stop:
seem strong support at 1647 250MA, pending to buy
GVI Forex 15:40 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
There were no surprises from the UK Chancellor's budget presentation this morning, with GDP estimates changed only very slightly. On the tax front, Osborne said the corporate tax rate would be reduced to 22% by 2014, with the top individual tax rate would drop to 45% from 50%. Testifying before Congress this morning, Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner both stuck to their prior views on Europe.
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update
hk ab 15:39 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
KB, what's your target of the aud stop sell?
I have a/j target 86.9 first......
GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
March 21 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, March 22.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar:
- Far East: JP- Trade, CN- HSBC flash PMI.
- Europe: EZ- flash Mfg/Svc PMIs, New Industrial Orders, Consumer Confidence. GB- Retail Sales.
- North America: US- Weekly Jobs, Leading Indicators, Natural Gas.
sofia kaprikorn 15:37 GMT March 21, 2012
YEN Crosses are falling and AUDUSD / AUDJPY seem to be the worst beaten dogs of them all.
As I asked for opinion before one might assume that AUD has fallen out of favor - because of the Falling Chinese commodity demand or smtg else I could not fathom right now.
---
Stocks behave rather well at the height they are right now - watching the worlds' favorite AAPL holding strong at the lofty levels.
Just could not resist after watching the charts for some time:
Sold it Short @ 606.84
Here is chart and rationale:
AAPL Begs to go Short
London Mick 15:36 GMT March 21, 2012
Joe you are not alone in this chase your tail market
Cambridge Joe 15:35 GMT March 21, 2012
Thanks for the illumination.
Trust me... I broke my teeth trying to short e/y the other day.... which is now dropping like a stone...
Now I'm short $/y... it's got held up... Bah !
dc CB 15:33 GMT March 21, 2012
So I'd like to know where are the USDs going
today into Treasuries....after 9 down days time to buy.
Saar KaL 15:32 GMT March 21, 2012
still adding
Pair____ TRD Target Lmt S Lmt B
EUR/USD B 1.3360 1.3308 1.3156
USD/JPY B 84.889 84.121 83.512
GBP/USD B 1.5847 1.5937 1.5804
USD/CHF S 0.9028 0.9168 0.9059
AUD/USD B 1.0648 1.0546 1.0403
USD/CAD B 0.9931 0.9955 0.9856
NZD/USD B 0.8275 0.8226 0.8111
EUR/GBP B 0.8427 0.8381 0.8316
EUR/JPY B 113.39 111.59 110.22
GBP/JPY B 134.52 133.70 132.32
CHF/JPY B 93.952 92.570 91.394
GBP/CHF S 1.4307 1.4509 1.4378
EUR/CAD B 1.3266 1.3173 1.3053
AUD/JPY B 89.291 88.360 87.082
CAD/JPY B 85.420 85.138 84.110
NZD/JPY B 70.211 68.946 67.927
GBP/CAD B 1.5735 1.5777 1.5641
NZD/CAD B 0.8217 0.8133 0.8054
XAU/USD B 1715.46 1672.97 1635.85
XAG/USD B 34.7391 32.8149 31.4887
Mtl JP 15:30 GMT March 21, 2012
Joe you could make an assumption that market is playing 1.30 - 1.35 range in a yin-yang manner.
On the thematic front euro contagion risk fades out and fades in.
dc CB 15:29 GMT March 21, 2012
Rupert Says It's So
NYC ET 15:27 GMT March 21, 2012
Look at jpy crosses as they retreat and stocks are only down a little. What happens on a sharper drop.
PAR 15:24 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Looks like Americans are buying iPhones and iPads instead of houses Maybe if they just came with an iHouse ?
tx dev 15:24 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
EURUSD move right after home sales data today, from 3225 up to 3255 and back down to 3190ish looks to be classily done - so far all within yesterday's range
Cambridge Joe 15:17 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
I would welcome constructive comment as I find myself at a loss to understand what is happening to all the USD.... where are they going ?
I had cable to sell from earlier... which it is, after a nasty spike...
I have USDJPY short from 84.00, so it's now behind a sl.
So I'd like to know where are the USDs going...if both gbpusd and usdjpy are a sell.... where and how ?
It's too much for my frail grasp on things ! :-))
UK Malc 15:13 GMT March 21, 2012
Crazy day does not call for crazy trading.
sofia kaprikorn 15:00 GMT March 21, 2012
***
yeah I like them collapsing under their own weight - Yen Crosses might be on a multi-year up trend but it can't be done incessantly anyway...
...
NC JJM 12:27 GMT March 21, 2012
good hunch - they keep them pumping up until there is not hot air to prop them and they just fall like stones - same goes for the S&P/stocks...
and sooner rather than later for AAPL...
GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT March 21, 2012
-- ALERT --
U.S. Weekly Energy Inventories (mln)
Crude Oil: -1.160 vs. +1.900 exp vs. +1.750 prev.
Gasoline: -1.200 vs. -2.1 exp. vs. -1.410 prev.
Distillates: +1.700 vs.-1.6 n/a exp vs. -4.680 prev.
Cap/Util: 82.2% vs. 82.60% exp. vs. 82.70% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 14:22 GMT March 21, 2012
what happened is that 1.3200 held
nyc jy 14:20 GMT March 21, 2012
What just happened? I do not see any news???????
GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT March 21, 2012
U.S. Existing homes sales dead in line with estimates.Better than what pending homes sales would have expected.
Mtl JP 14:04 GMT March 21, 2012
used house prices probably still too high and not low enough
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT March 21, 2012
-- ALERT --
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (000) February 2012
4.59 vs. 4.60 exp. vs. 4.63r prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Saar KaL 13:55 GMT March 21, 2012
Long Nzdjpy
and Long Nzdusd
Saar KaL 13:52 GMT March 21, 2012
audjpy Longs here
Saar KaL 13:51 GMT March 21, 2012
JP
You a lawyer?
no one will read that bro
Mtl JP 13:33 GMT March 21, 2012
Testimony
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke The European Economic and Financial Situation
Before the Committee on Government Oversight and Reform, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.
March 21, 2012
Thank you, Chairman Issa, Ranking Member Cummings, and other members of the Committee for inviting me to testify about the economic and financial situation in Europe and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve in response.
Developments in Europe and Their Effects on the U.S. Economy
For almost two years, developments in Europe have had an important influence on the tenor of global financial markets and on the global economy more generally. The combination of high debts, large deficits, and poor growth prospects in several countries using the euro has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and, consequently, led to sharply higher sovereign borrowing costs--initially for Greece, but subsequently for other euro-area countries as well. Pessimism about these countries' fiscal and economic situations, in turn, has undermined confidence in the strength of European financial institutions, increasing the cost and difficulty those institutions have faced in obtaining funding and reducing their willingness to supply credit.
The difficulties in the euro area have affected the U.S. economy. The European Union accounts for roughly one-fifth of U.S. exports of goods and services. Not surprisingly, U.S. exports to Europe over the past two years have underperformed our exports to the rest of the world. In addition, weaker demand from Europe has slowed growth in other economies, which has also lowered foreign demand for our products.
Financial strains in Europe have also shown through to our financial markets. During times when financial conditions in Europe were at their most turbulent, investors around the world retreated from riskier assets. In the United States, these pullbacks decreased stock prices, increased the costs of issuing corporate debt, and reduced consumer and business confidence. In addition, U.S. financial institutions that were thought to have substantial exposures to Europe saw their stock prices fall and their credit spreads widen.
In the past few months, financial stresses in Europe have lessened, which has contributed to an improved tone of financial markets around the world, including in the United States. The improvement reflects, in part, a number of actions taken by European policymakers. First, measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB), including implementing two longer-term refinancing operations and easing collateral rules and reserve requirements, have allowed European banks to lock in funding for up to three years, thereby alleviating concerns about their near-term prospects. With the benefit of this support, European banks in turn have increased their holdings of sovereign debt, contributing to lower borrowing costs for some countries.
Second, euro-area leaders, the Greek government, and private-sector holders of Greek debt are taking steps to put Greece on a more sustainable fiscal path. Its sovereign debt has been significantly reduced, the Greek authorities are intensifying their efforts to implement fiscal and structural reforms, and the European Union and International Monetary Fund have pledged a considerable amount of new funds as part of a second assistance package. The Greek economy remains in a deep recession, however.
Third and finally, leaders of most of the members of the European Union have approved a new fiscal compact treaty that strengthens fiscal rules and their enforcement. This treaty represents a positive step toward resolving the fundamental tension inherent in having a monetary union without a fiscal union, and thus should help bolster the viability of the euro-area economy in the longer term.
Although progress has been made, more needs to be done. Full resolution of the crisis will require a further strengthening of the European banking system; a significant expansion of financial backstops, or "firewalls," to guard against contagion in sovereign debt markets; and, critically, continued efforts to increase economic growth and competitiveness and to reduce external imbalances in the troubled countries.
Actions Taken by the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve has followed developments in Europe closely, and we are in frequent contact with key European policymakers. We are particularly focused on protecting U.S. financial institutions, businesses, and consumers from adverse financial and economic developments in Europe.
To help calm dollar funding markets and support the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses, the Federal Reserve acted in concert with major foreign central banks to enhance the U.S. dollar swap facilities that were originally put in place during the global financial crisis and reestablished in May 2010. Use of the reestablished lines was limited until late last year. However, in late November, the Federal Reserve agreed with the ECB and the central banks of Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom to extend the swap lines through February 2013 and to reduce their pricing, from a spread of 100 basis points over the overnight index swap rate to 50 basis points.1
The lower cost to the ECB and other foreign central banks enabled them, in turn, to reduce the cost of the short-term dollar loans they provide to financial institutions in their jurisdictions. As a result, usage of the swap line increased considerably, peaking at $109 billion in mid-February. The expanded use of the swap lines has helped to ease funding pressures on European and other foreign banks, lower tensions in U.S. money markets (in which foreign banks are major participants), alleviate pressures on foreign banks to reduce their lending in the United States, and boost confidence at a time of considerable strain in international financial markets. In recent weeks, as market conditions have improved, usage of the swap lines has fallen back to about $65 billion.
I would add that the swaps are very safe from the perspective of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. taxpayer. They present no exchange rate or interest rate risk; each drawing has a short maturity and must be approved by the Federal Reserve; they are collateralized by the foreign currencies for which dollars are swapped; and our counterparties are the foreign central banks, not the foreign commercial banks that receive the dollar loans.2
In addition to its actions to reduce pressures in global markets for dollar funding, the Federal Reserve has collaborated with other agencies--both bilaterally and through the Financial Stability Oversight Council--to monitor the potential vulnerabilities of U.S. financial institutions and to work to enhance their resilience in the face of possible shocks to the global economy. Notably, U.S. financial institutions have very limited direct net credit exposures to the most vulnerable euro-area countries, and U.S. money market funds also have almost no exposure to those countries.
U.S. financial institutions do have some gross exposure to potential losses arising from sales of credit default swap (CDS) protection referencing European sovereign debt. However, for the large U.S. dealer banks, these sales have been more than offset by purchases of protection, which would imply that in the event of a sovereign default, U.S. financial institutions would be net recipients of CDS payouts. These positions still carry some risk in that some U.S. banks' counterparties might conceivably fail to make good on their obligations, but such risk is mitigated by the fact that the counterparties to large U.S. dealer banks for sovereign CDS trades are dispersed, primarily across large financial institutions. And in the vast majority of cases, these institutions post collateral to each other to help minimize possible losses.
Although U.S. banks have limited exposure to peripheral European countries, their exposures to European banks and to the larger, "core" countries of Europe are more material. Moreover, European holdings represented 35 percent of the assets of prime U.S. money market funds in February, and these funds remain structurally vulnerable despite some constructive steps, such as improved liquidity requirements, taken since the recent financial crisis. U.S. financial firms and money market funds have had time to adjust their exposures and hedge their risks to some degree as the European situation has evolved, but the risks of contagion remain a concern for both these institutions and their supervisors and regulators. In particular, were the situation in Europe to take a severe turn for the worse, the U.S. financial sector likely would have to contend not only with problems stemming from its direct European exposures, but also with an array of broader market movements, including declines in global equity prices, increased credit costs, and reduced availability of funding.
To address these broader risks, we have been working closely with large U.S. financial institutions. Most recently, on March 13, we released results from our Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR)--a supervisory assessment by the Federal Reserve of the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of large, complex bank holding companies.3 As part of this exercise, bank capital positions were evaluated under a hypothetical stress scenario that involved a deep recession in the United States (with unemployment reaching 13 percent) and a notable decline in activity abroad, combined with sharp decreases in both domestic and global asset prices. This exercise was designed to capture both the direct and indirect exposures and vulnerabilities of U.S. financial institutions to the economic and financial stresses that might arise from a severe crisis in Europe. The results show that a significant majority of the largest U.S. banks would continue to meet supervisory expectations for capital adequacy despite large projected losses in an extremely adverse hypothetical scenario.
Conclusion
The recent reduction in financial stresses in Europe is a welcome development for the United States, given the important trade and financial linkages connecting our economies. However, Europe's financial and economic situation remains difficult, and it is critical that the European leaders follow through on their policy commitments to ensure a lasting stabilization. I believe that our European counterparts understand the challenges and risks they face and are committed to take the necessary steps to address those issues.
For our part, the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the situation closely, work with our financial institutions and foreign counterparts to enhance the resilience of our financial system, and be ready to use our tools to help stabilize U.S. markets should the situation require such action.
Thank you. I would be pleased to respond to your questions.
dc CB 13:20 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
40 page Goldman paper released today.
Buy Equities/ Sell Bonds
As a reminder, this is a deja vu repeat of precisely the same trade that Goldman enacted back in 2011... and then back in 2010... and each of those times was accompanied by lots of pretty charts and fancy bullets. Will this time be different,
ZH with scribdoc
Sinai Arvi 12:57 GMT March 21, 2012
When he becomes Gifilterfish and joins his friend Trout in a hot frying pan.......
Saar KaL 12:57 GMT March 21, 2012
EURCAD Buys Here too
GVI Forex john 12:53 GMT March 21, 2012
DAX -16
futures:
DJ +9
SP 0
Mixed picture in equities, EURUSD to S&P correlation mostly working but not as cleanly as on other days.
Haifa ac 12:50 GMT March 21, 2012
Israel Dil 13:55 GMT March 20, 2012
AUD: Reply
AUD is bottoming versus the USD, accumulate mode !//
Dil, at what point does your analysis breaks (or reverses?)
Saar KaL 12:46 GMT March 21, 2012
starting with these now
GBP/CAD B
XAU/USD B
AUD/USD B
USD/CHF S
EUR/USD B
for this plan
Ls Pair____ TRD Target Lmt S Lmt B
1 EUR/USD B 1.3357 1.3329 1.3177
2 USD/JPY B 84.876 84.060 83.452
-1 GBP/USD S 1.5844 1.5950 1.5817
-1 USD/CHF S 0.9030 0.9154 0.9045
1 AUD/USD B 1.0647 1.0569 1.0426
1 USD/CAD B 0.9932 0.9949 0.9850
1 NZD/USD B 0.8274 0.8247 0.8132
1 EUR/GBP B 0.8427 0.8386 0.8320
2 EUR/JPY B 113.35 111.72 110.35
2 GBP/JPY B 134.47 133.70 132.31
2 CHF/JPY B 93.916 92.657 91.480
-1 GBP/CHF S 1.4308 1.4504 1.4374
1 EUR/CAD B 1.3264 1.3179 1.3059
2 AUD/JPY B 89.260 88.504 87.224
2 CAD/JPY B 85.398 85.117 84.090
2 NZD/JPY B 70.187 69.069 68.048
1 GBP/CAD B 1.5734 1.5777 1.5641
1 NZD/CAD B 0.8216 0.8148 0.8069
2 XAU/USD B 1714.74 1672.90 1635.78
2 XAG/USD B 34.7116 32.8915 31.5622
GVI Forex john 12:41 GMT March 21, 2012
Correction to Calendar. Canadian Retail Sales due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
GVI Forex 12:35 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
The euro edged higher against the dollar and hit a near five-month high versus the yen on Wednesday on signs Greece's bailout was progressing smoothly and as investors again pared back hefty bearish bets on the single currency.
FOREX NEWS - Euro creeps up vs dlr, gains seen short-lived
GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT March 21, 2012
-- ALERT --
Canada: Leading Indicator
February 2012
+0.60% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
NC JJM 12:27 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Euro/Usd (1.3225)....Watching this hourly trendline and support in cable at 1.5820-30. From a wave perspective 7 waves up off lows in euro? Thus, very suspicious of this rally.
GVI Forex Jay 11:09 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
11:00 GMT (Global-View.com) March 21 - Suuny skies for the EURUSD but not without some clouds as the upside paused below a key 1.3291 high, which protects 1.3301 (61.8% of 1.3486-1.3304). Focus remains on crosses with EUR generally bid, most notably vs. the JPY and AUD.
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD
matsudo rana 11:04 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 84 Target: open Stop: 8450
sold............happy trade
Boston eFX 10:50 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Did GBP overreact to the BOE minutes? Asks Citi senior currency strategist Valentin Marinov. "There is little in the minutes to suggest the BOE's view has changed in any meaningful way since February," he says, noting he would ....
Did GBP Overreact To BOE Minutes? (full story)
Boston eFX 10:44 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) EUR higher because it's cheap says Citi noting that the currency traded near 7-year lows in January on a trade-weighted basis.
"We think that one important reason for the EUR rebound is the fact that EUR looks so cheap across the board," Citi says.
Bank adds that a lot of investors took ...
Citi: EUR Higher Because It's Cheap (full story)
Tutong Sabekayo 10:10 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 0.9880 Target: 0.9955 Stop:
Buy USDCAD..
sofia kaprikorn 09:52 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
I'm interested how the whole market has changed with the start of the YEN move.
It is not as before as we see markets not that positive but YEN crosses are unstoppable..
matsudo matsudo 09:50 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell EURGBP
Entry: 8367 Target: open Stop: 8397
sold...happy trade
GVI Forex john 09:48 GMT March 21, 2012
-
Key
Items: CA- Retail Sales, US- Existing Homes Sales,
Bernanke Testimony.
-
U.S. Existing Homes Sales are due
today. This is the widest measure of housing. day. Data released on Tuesday
were in line with expectations. A strong housing turnaround is still needed
to improve employment.
-
Fed
Chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress today on Europe.
His prepared text was leaked to the press yesterday.
-
We
continue to monitor any signs of portfolio shifts in the U.S. out of
bonds and into equities. The 10-yr bond is holding steady at 2.37%.
Your thoughts, comments questions, additions, etc, needed and appreciated!
GVI Forex Blog 09:46 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Key Items: CA- Retail Sales, US- Existing Homes Sales, Bernanke Testimony.
U.S. Existing Homes Sales are due today. This is the widest measure of housing. day. Data released on Tuesday were in line with expectations. A strong housing turnaround is still needed to improve employment.
Forex Trading Talk 11:00 GMT 21 March 2012
GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
09:40 GMT (Global-View.com) March 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Wednesday in North America at .5174, -0.37% from its Tuesday close (-3.83% vs. end-2010).
Global-View D.O.G. Index March 21, 2012 U.S. Open
GVI Forex john 09:39 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
09:40 GMT (Global-View.com) March 21- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power
index is opening Wednesday in North America at .5174, -0.37% from its Tuesday close (-3.83% vs. end-2010).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7895, -0.25% (+0.17% vs. end-2010). The
forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1739, -0.48% (-14.30% end-2010).
Against crude, it is at 0.4182, -0.92% (-14.24% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against
levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
Cambridge Joe 09:34 GMT March 21, 2012
PHEW..!!! Who could have seen that coming ?
Scared the Do-Dos out of me...... still , in the black again...!
GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
-- ALERT --
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 2 Unchanged =7 Reduce =0
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Beijing Laowen 09:22 GMT March 21, 2012
Saar KaL 08:59 GMT March 21, 2012 -
=================================
Have been getting the same issue for serveral days. Occassionally I was told that GV website was offline.
Mumbai AS 09:07 GMT March 21, 2012
OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Yes Kal even I am getting these notifications every other day. Dunno why . No virus here for sure.
Saar KaL 09:05 GMT March 21, 2012
thanks rana
i feel better now
MSA/
I am still buying Gold...
I have to stick to the plan
matsudo rana 09:03 GMT March 21, 2012
i saw this page many times
Saar KaL 08:59 GMT March 21, 2012
Jay/ John or anyone else
Is there something wrong with GVI pages?
I keep getting this Access Restricted page with an Image Password...
anyone else getting this
Runnin Norton Check now...1/2 hour nothing so far
TIA
Dubai SAS 08:45 GMT March 21, 2012
Dubai SAS 10:19 GMT March 8, 2012
Euro : Reply
Entry: 1.3190 Target: Open Stop: Later
Long now ......
Order to add another @ 1.3090 ..
closed half of this @ 1.3218 ....
Closed the balance half longs from 1.3190 @ 1.3280 for +90 ...
holding the 1.3090 longs for now
matsudo rana 08:39 GMT March 21, 2012
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
also adding gbpjpy 133.3 and eurjpy 111.30 stops 133.70/111.70
matsudo matsudo 08:35 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 92.20/91.70 Target: open Stop: 92.90now
added stop changed..........happy trade
msa nsm 08:35 GMT March 21, 2012
KaL do you think we'll get 1638-1600 gold or in sand now...was really waiting to add. According to my algo we still have over one week left before we resume trend in April?
Cambridge Joe 08:21 GMT March 21, 2012
My Cable short is about to get taken out.
Sorry for that. :-(
Beijing Laowen 08:07 GMT March 21, 2012
KaL, agree that Euro long term downtrend is still intact. My take is that Euro's correction appreciation will be capped under 1.35.
AMS transkeicendental meditation 07:38 GMT March 21, 2012
SABYZ News Links -Guru Meditation:?
Saar KaL 07:31 GMT March 21, 2012
eurusd is on a much longer term down trend
this up trend into end of april is just a correction
we will not see 1.6 again for at least 8- 9 years
Saar KaL 07:26 GMT March 21, 2012
doing some adding
Ls Pair____ T Target Lmt S Lmt B
1 EUR/USD B 1.3350 1.3328 1.3176
2 USD/JPY B 84.849 83.949 83.342
-1 GBP/USD S 1.5839 1.5940 1.5807
-1 USD/CHF S 0.9034 0.9155 0.9046
1 AUD/USD B 1.0644 1.0569 1.0426
1 USD/CAD B 0.9933 0.9954 0.9856
1 NZD/USD B 0.8271 0.8245 0.8130
1 EUR/GBP B 0.8425 0.8380 0.8315
2 EUR/JPY B 113.26 111.59 110.22
2 GBP/JPY B 134.39 133.48 132.09
2 CHF/JPY B 93.845 92.521 91.345
-1 GBP/CHF S 1.4309 1.4516 1.4385
1 EUR/CAD B 1.3260 1.3184 1.3064
2 AUD/JPY B 89.201 88.458 87.179
2 CAD/JPY B 85.356 85.004 83.979
2 NZD/JPY B 70.140 68.997 67.977
1 GBP/CAD B 1.5731 1.5790 1.5654
1 NZD/CAD B 0.8215 0.8148 0.8069
2 XAU/USD B 1713.36 1671.09 1634.01
2 XAG/USD B 34.6585 32.8405 31.5132
Cambridge Joe 06:48 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
Cable putting in the RH Shoulder right now on the hourly.
It's due a significant trip South .... soon... IMO.
Syd 06:23 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
According to PBoC, China entrepreneurs confidence index rose to 70.2% in Q1 vs 68.4% in Q4 - China Daily
TradeTheNews.com
Syd 06:22 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
UK Gilts (UK) According to a survey of economists, a majority expects the UK to maintain its AAA sovereign credit rating - London Telegraph
- Also, a majority of the economists expect the UK government to meet the deficit targets.
TradeTheNews.com
JERUSALEM KB 04:35 GMT March 21, 2012
Buy EURGBP
Entry: 0.8355 Target: 0.8415 Stop: 0.8319
bought with 30pips trailing stop
Beijing Laowen 02:50 GMT March 21, 2012
Rana, I agree with KaL that EURJPY is heading for at least 114.
Fort Worth JK 02:47 GMT March 21, 2012
Swan Valley Trout 01:11 GMT March 21, 2012
eurusd: Reply
Why not 1.99 or 5.00?
Are you on drugs again Zeus?
Beijing Laowen 02:46 GMT March 21, 2012
Buy Euro dips until above 1.32 should be the strategy for today.
Mtl JP 01:24 GMT March 21, 2012
Syd 22:27 according to Ben he would have you think that he and other central bankers with their money-printing exclusivity are in no way responsible for the financial and economic meltdown and that au contraire you are supposed to see them for knights riding in on white horses rectifying and saving you from the evil forces of speculators
Swan Valley Trout 01:11 GMT March 21, 2012
Why not 1.99 or 5.00?
Tokyo R 01:06 GMT March 21, 2012
what about eurjpy? 112?
BC JCS 01:01 GMT March 21, 2012
1.34
Seattle SL 00:20 GMT March 21, 2012
Reply
1.33 or 1.32?
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