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Forex Forum Archive for 05/1/2017

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GVI Forex Blog 23:49 GMT May 1, 2017
A Personal Message from Jay Meisler
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When we started Global-View.com 20 years ago one of our goals was to help traders succeed in the world of global trading. Twenty years later this is still our goal. Recently we have taken a major step in that direction with the creation of the Amazing Trader, which delivers to your charts in real-time precisely what we are seeing on our charts. This also includes a proprietary system you can plug in and trade immediately using our amazing program.

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dc CB 23:38 GMT May 1, 2017
Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com

works well in the arena for which it was designed

Chi "soft" wheat COT

dc CB 23:34 GMT May 1, 2017
Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com

john

Wheat major short length...but the snow was also well predicted, so why wait until the trading pit opens on Mon.

Other factors. Flooding affecting Corn planting.
This is just the start of the time to play the grains. May contract rolled. July as front...Old Crop, which there is a lot of...both wheat and corn(all over the ground due to lack of storage.)

Storm also burried cattle/feed lots...

For grains the trigger will be WASDE on May 10. Because it's a World market and SoAmer is harvesting, so is Aus. (World Supply Demand Est)

dc CB 23:24 GMT May 1, 2017
Etherium and Bitcoin

Just try to hold some in your hand...SI.
Not the actual coin or bar.

chart from:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-01/manipulations-persistence-and-comex-demise

Selling the same oz over and over

Dillon AL 23:15 GMT May 1, 2017
Etherium and Bitcoin

CB off the top of my head there is an ancient gap around 12 bucks in SI. It occurred on a roll over. I remember it well cos my broker screwed up royally and I had to scramble paying up

dc CB 23:08 GMT May 1, 2017
Etherium and Bitcoin



because stuff you can hold in your hand isn't worth anything.

Dillon AL 23:05 GMT May 1, 2017
Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com

John that represents approx 2.5% of total tonnage

dc CB 22:38 GMT May 1, 2017
Etherium and Bitcoin
Reply   
crossed $80...
bitcoin over $1400

ETH

GVI Trading john bland 21:52 GMT May 1, 2017
Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com

I know that "winter wheat" is a major crop. I don't know what this storm implies in the way of prices or supplies. Fed is hoping for higher inflation.

Tallinn viies 21:45 GMT May 1, 2017
eurusd
Reply   
buying near 1.0850

Tallinn viies 21:43 GMT May 1, 2017
eurusd
Reply   
simple plan for euro - sell near 10950 and buy near 1.9850. both with tight stops, 15 pips max.

GVI Trading john bland 21:42 GMT May 1, 2017
Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com
Reply   
Wheat prices posted record gains in Chicago on Monday as the U.S. winter crop faced substantial losses from snow and high winds that slammed into four Midwest states including Kansas, the top grower.

More than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of snow fell on ripening wheat in parts of Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Nebraska in the past 24 hours, David Streit, the senior lead forecaster at Bethesda, Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group LLC, said in a telephone interview. While it will take several days before the damage can be assessed accurately as the snow melts, early estimates suggest losses could exceed 50 million bushels, according to Pira Energy....

Wheat Futures Surge After U.S. Crop Pummeled by Snowstorm-- Bloomberg.com

dc CB 20:44 GMT May 1, 2017
Hello Canada
Reply   
US 2007 Hoser Style...read the gravestones of US lenders - Where's that guy with the orange permaTan.
FED Head Ben Sez: it's under control there is no need to fear.
___________________________________________________

As discussed first thing this morning, the fate of Canada's largest alternative mortgage lender, Home Capital Group, appears to have been decided over the weekend, when in the span of just one week, over 70% of the company's deposit base had been withdrawn, effectively mothballing the business.

A bigger red flag emerged when concerns about possible contagion appeared to have been justified Canada's Equitable Group, another alternative mortgage lender, said Monday it had started seeing “an elevated but manageable” decrease in deposit balances, traditionally a polite way by management to admit a bank jog is taking place.

Home Capital Bank Run Spreads To Another Canadian Mortgage Lender

GVI Trading john bland 19:42 GMT May 1, 2017
Risk On Late Monday. Bond Yields Up On Risk Of Larger Supply

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike as of the June 17, 2017 meeting are now 78% (78%).


EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: HIGHER
Spot EURUSD: 1.0901

Pivot Point: 1.0903

20-day avg: 1.0727
50-day avg: 1.0701
200-day avg: 1.0834

GVI Forex Blog 19:36 GMT May 1, 2017
Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 2 May 2017
Reply   

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 2 May 2017

GVI Forex Blog 19:27 GMT May 1, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For 2 May 2017
Reply   

Trading Ideas for 2 May 2017

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Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive FX rates:
  • EVENT RISK: Tuesday-- European and UK Manufacturing PMI's delayed due to holiday. Nice to watch on a comparative basis, but not as much of market-mover as U.S. ISM PMIs. UK data can move GBP.

  • EVENT RISK: Wednesday-- 12:15 GMT ADP Private Employment. Markets always react to this report, but it can very inaccurate predictor of NFP like it was in March (+262K vs. +98K actual). Take it with a grain of salt.
  • EVENT RISK: Wednesday-- 14:00 GMT ISM Service PMI (seen 55.9 vs. 56.2) Closely followed. The Service component of this report is often (but not always) a good indicator of NFP.
  • EVENT RISK: Thursday-- European and UK Service PMI's delayed due to holiday. Nice to watch on a comparative basis, but not as much of market-mover as U.S. ISM PMIs. UK data can move GBP.

  • This is a busy week for EVENT RISK data, especialLy from the U.S., to include ISM PMI data, a Fed meeting and April employment reports.

  • Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    Forex Trading Ideas For 2 May 2017

dc CB 17:15 GMT May 1, 2017
Risk On In North America. Europe Closed For May Day

SToX: AMZN, GOOG, AAPL.
That's all folks.

dc CB 16:58 GMT May 1, 2017
Risk On In North America. Europe Closed For May Day

Algos go momentarily bonkers.

TRUMP SAYS HE'S ACTIVELY CONSIDERING BREAKING UP BIG BANKS

dc CB 16:56 GMT May 1, 2017
Risk On In North America. Europe Closed For May Day

As Bloomberg reports, Mizuho Securities' Bob Yawger warns its "not a good sign that gasoline is so weak, so close to Memorial Day and driving season... gasoline in danger of breakdown today."

1.52 down 2.75 cents

GVI Trading john bland 15:26 GMT May 1, 2017
Risk On In North America. Europe Closed For May Day
Reply   

Table of Key Current Market Rates

GVI Forex Blog 14:50 GMT May 1, 2017
GVI Data Calendar for 2 May 2017
Reply   

Forex Data Calendar For Traders

May 1, 2017 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday May 2, 2017.

  • Far East: CN- Caixin PMI, JP- BOJ Minutes
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs
  • North America: US- API Crude

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 2 May
All Day Global PMIs
Wed 3 May
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Global PMIs
07:55 DE- Employment
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
Thu 4 May
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Global PMIs
Fri 5 May
00:00 JP- Holiday
12:30 US, CA- Employment

GVI Data Calendar for 2 May 2017

Israel Dil 14:10 GMT May 1, 2017
US Economy

also debt reaching $21+++ trillions is a given this year... that wad the only moment Trump seen as hopeless and someone who gave up during his 'face the nation' interview.

Livingston nh 14:09 GMT May 1, 2017
Breaking News: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Flat To Weaker t in April 2017

"The Employment Index registered 52 percent, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points from the March reading of 58.9 percent.....The Prices Index registered 68.5 percent in April, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the March reading of 70.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 14th consecutive month,"

ISM

GVI Forex Blog 14:08 GMT May 1, 2017
Breaking News: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Flat To Weaker t in April 2017
Reply   

April 2017 U.S. ISM Mfg weaker than expected. Final Markit PMI unchanged. ISM report more

important. "U.S.

Breaking News: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Flat To Weaker t in April 2017

Livingston nh 14:05 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

The Data Dependent FED hiked in March because _______________. For extra credit contrast and compare the data points

PAR 14:04 GMT May 1, 2017
US Economy
Reply   
US economy is weak and getting weaker . Soft data following hard data down . Rate hike becoming more and more unlikely .

US stock market is disconnected from weakening US economy .

GVI Trading john bland 14:02 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Construction Spending March 2017



ALERT
-0.20% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.80% (r +1.80%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 14:02 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Construction Spending March 2017



ALERT
-0.20% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.80% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 14:00 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI April 2017

U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

54.8 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 57.2 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:58 GMT May 1, 2017
CAD

ACC - agree -- I am surprised (disappointed) by the AUD's ability to hold the bottom of its range // certainly RBA has more room to cut than BoC

Israel Dil 13:52 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

The front-runner in the French presidential election has told the BBC that the EU must reform or face the prospect of "Frexit". Pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron made the comments as he and his far-right rival Marine Le Pen held rallies in the last week of campaigning.

__________

loose screws?

Sydney ACC 13:49 GMT May 1, 2017
CAD

Its my view the Reserve Bank faces a much more worrying concern regrading job figures.
The shift to temporary work underscores a worsening in incomes which is negatively impacting retail prices and the earnings in the retail sector.
This therefore directly affects the CPI and GDP, but more so government revenues.
Some economists also believe that the stubbornly strong AUD is helping retailers absorb price increases on imported goods.
I'd say the Bank tomorrow is going to reinforce its comment about AUD strength.

GVI Trading john bland 13:45 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Data Charts
U.S. Markit final Mfg PMI April 2017





ALERT
52.8 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 13:35 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI Improves in April 2017
Reply   

Canada Markit PMI. Stronger and above the "50" expansion line.

 Canada Markit PMI Chart

BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI Improves in April 2017

Livingston nh 13:32 GMT May 1, 2017
CAD
Reply   


As ACC pointed out below the RBA faces a quandary

The property "bubble" in Australia has been the source of much concern BUT perhaps Canada also has a problem for the BoC -- one of the large mortgage companies is in the news LINK

Is this a one off or the first of many?

More charts here LINK

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Markit Mfg PMI April 2017





ALERT
55.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 55.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Dillon AL 12:50 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

.

Alaska Earthquake Center

GVI Trading john bland 12:43 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

That is moderately strong, depending.

GVI Trading john bland 12:42 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Report 6.5 earthquake in southeastern Alaska.

>> TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT May 1, 2017
Breaking News U.S. Core PCE Deflator Remains Depressed For March 2017
Reply   

U.S. March 2017 Core PCE Deflator lower at 1.60%. Fed Targets the core PCE Deflator at 2.00%.

Breaking News U.S. Core PCE Deflator Remains Depressed For March 2017

GVI Trading john bland 12:32 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Fed Inflation target remains depressed.

GVI Trading john bland 12:31 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator March, 2017



ALERT
Personal Income +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp v +0.40% (r 0.30%) prev.
PCE Defl +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.80% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 12:04 GMT May 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Ideas For 1 May 2017

10-yr 2.295% +1.3bp

coming to life pre-data

GVI Trading john bland 10:09 GMT May 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Ideas For 1 May 2017

DJ +32
SP +4.5

10-yr 2.293% +1.1

GVI Forex Blog 09:53 GMT May 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Ideas For 1 May 2017
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EUR symbol Quiet trade early Monday due to May dday holiday in many centers

Amazing Trader Ideas For 1 May 2017

GVI Trading john bland 09:38 GMT May 1, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For 1 May 2017

Trading Ideas for 1 May 2017

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Forex Trading Outlook

Items likely to drive FX rates:
  • EVENT RISK: Monday-- All Day (see calendar). European data are postponed one day due to May Day Holiday. Highlight: US ISM Mfg PMI @ 14:00 GMT seen weaker (56.5 vs 57.2) Important data.

  • EVENT RISK: Tuesday-- European and UK PMI's delayed due to holiday. Nice to watch on a comparative basis, but not as much of market-mover as U.S. ISM PMIs. UK data can move GBP.

  • This is a busy week for EVENT RISK data, especialLy from the U.S., to include ISM PMI data, a Fed meeting and April employment reports.

  • Please comment...

    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    Forex Trading Ideas For 1 May 2017

GVI Trading john bland 09:21 GMT May 1, 2017
BREAKING NEWS

Australia, Japan, Switzerland PMIs April 2017

Australia:
59.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 57.5 prev.
Australian April 2017 PMI improves sharply.





Japan
52.7 vs. 52.6 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.
Japan Final April 2017 PMI revised down.
Japan PMI Chart

GVI Trading john bland 09:07 GMT May 1, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

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Sydney ACC 08:00 GMT May 1, 2017
AUD - RBA May Meeting Tomorrow
Reply   
If the Reserve Bank was still retaining its narrow focus on keeping inflation between 2 and 3 per cent per annum, it would be cutting interest rates at its May meeting on Tuesday.

Futures traders and economists are almost certain it won't, and will, instead, keep rates steady for the ninth straight month. Market economists are glad for the RBA's ability to look beyond inflation rates when setting the interest rate – though opinions differ on what exactly it should be focusing on.

The domestic economic is growing, but still weak. And the currency is still high – factors that some say should lead the RBA to cut rates. But record-low interest rates, others argue, have added oomph to booming housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, leading them to conclude raising interest rates would be the most effective way to address this.

"I think they should be cutting," said Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas, an economic adviser to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

Link to full story

nw kw 02:35 GMT May 1, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

fast long cadjpy for oil, from bonds cot, but cad cot ful so? short able top usacad

ithaca sjm 02:20 GMT May 1, 2017
loving aud.
Reply   
Fosters is in my blood. Bought aud/yen. just watching for the next day or so.

dc CB 01:43 GMT May 1, 2017
Monday Trading Ideas

CNBC Now‏Verified account @CNBCnow 7m7 minutes ago

JUST IN: Congressional leaders reach deal to fund the federal government through the fall, senior aide tells NBC News.

ithaca sjm 01:04 GMT May 1, 2017
buy aud vs. nzd & cad
Reply   
Looking good for Aud/Cad & Aud/Nzd directionlly next couple of days, then review. No specific entry etc., just worth a look to the upside.

Israel Dil 00:25 GMT May 1, 2017
N-Korea: meanwhile in reality

where the bombs and missiles with expiry date going to be used?!

Palestinian statehood, why not?
Iran and their proxies, why not? Why Russia should care about oil above $200?

from deflation to GLOBAL hyper inflation... gold/silver?

Israel Dil 00:18 GMT May 1, 2017
N-Korea: meanwhile in reality

so, here it is:

currently NK cheap labor is doing jobs in Africa to finance the NK regime. South Korea, Japan & China will make the 'smart cookie' to make more money from this point further, and the current "crisis" is the past.

the Chinese COP costs less than the US one, SK & Japan knows that... interesting time ahead, vely vely intelesting times ahead :-)))

Israel Dil 00:09 GMT May 1, 2017
N-Korea: meanwhile in reality

the beauty of it, China doing it all without shooting a single shot... I assume the shots are being saved for maybe NK and surely Taiwan at later stage.

America first, Trump and his circles (with mega huge financial links with the Chinese) all done to protect America from nuclear North Korean missiles...

gets logic and a reasonable script?

Israel Dil 00:02 GMT May 1, 2017
N-Korea: meanwhile in reality
Reply   
Trump got played, big time!

one day, system for a billion, the next day it's for free.

China taking care of NK is more important than the trade (very bad one, as he named it) deal with China.

so, everybody need Chins, including US issued debt.

when the coin really falls with Trump, he may find his "allies" in Asia turned into part of soviet era block controlled by China... this time, truly money making system/block with RUSSIA as senior true partner.

do we witness the breakdown (surely a shrinking at first stage) of the American empire?





 




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Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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