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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2017

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GVI Forex Blog 21:19 GMT July 1, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For 3 July 2017
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Trading Ideas for 3 July 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 3 Jul
00:00 CA- Holiday
All Day Mfg PMIs
Tue 4 Jul
00:00 US- Holiday
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 5 Jul
All Day Service PMIs
19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 6 Jul
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:00 US- ISM Service PMI
Fri 7 Jul
08:30 GB- Output/Trade
12:30 CA/US- Employment

Forex Trading Outlook

Event Risk Agenda

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Monday-- All Day Global Manufacturing PMIs & Japan BOJ Taknan Surveys closely watched by the markets, but usually not major price movers.

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Tuesday 00:00 US- Independence Day Holiday

  • >EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Tuesday-- 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank of Australia decision. No rate change expected.

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Wednesday-- All Day Global Service PMIs Closely watched by the markets.

  • EVENT RISK: HIGH-- Wednesday-- US Fed policy minutes. Closely followed by the markets. Can be a major market mover.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


Forex Trading Ideas For 3 July 2017

Haifa ac 17:26 GMT July 1, 2017
regret(a)
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Greta Van Susteren FIRED by MSNBC six months after joining the network

Amazing Trader john bland 16:24 GMT July 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Monday Trading Ideas
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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike at the September 13, 2017 meeting are now 16% (16%).


EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: HIGHER
Spot EURUSD: 1.1418

Pivot Point: 1.1418

20-day avg: 1.1235
50-day avg: 1.1128
200-day avg: 1.0824


GVI Forex Blog 11:16 GMT July 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Ideas And Commitment Of Trader Data For June 27, 2017
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Forex trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is an imperfect, but useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would prefer more frequent and precise readings, but we have to live with what we get. The data work for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they in big or small.

EUR symbol EURUSD net long positions increased early in the past week, and undoubtedly increased more over the period. Upside EURUSD momentum suddenly gained momentum following early week comments by ECB Presodent Draghi. Psychological 1.1400 support is now key to maintaining this renewed upside momentum. As a reserve currency, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. The European economy is improving and that should remain a EUR positive.


EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

GBP symbolNet GBPUSD positions remained short and steady through the COT data period, but udoubtedly mant shorts were covered in the back half of the week as the GBPUSD folowed the EURUSD higher. Furthermore, BOE Governor Carney took a more hawkish mometary posture after the Draghi comments. The unit is highly sensitive to U.K. economic data, and that is helpful to those of us who rely on active markets. GBPUSD 1.3000 is the demarcation line between strength or weakness. Keep an eye on the EURGBP cross as a barometer of flows in and out of the EUR. These flows often directly impact both units against the USD.

GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

JPY symbol The USDJPY pair continues to be heavily manipulated by the Bank of Japan, which tries to keep its currency depressed to stimulate exports. Whenever the USDJPY starts to slide, expect to to see BOJ support for the pair. Keep in mind, the USDJPY correlates positively with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note. With U.S. rates moving higher, USDJPY longs have INCREASED (=Short JPY futures). Baak of Japan policy is nowhere near tightening!


USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart

Amazing Trader Ideas And Commitment Of Trader Data For June 27, 2017

Amazing Trader john bland 11:12 GMT July 1, 2017
Unexpected Sea Change In Policies At Top Tier Central Banks

John M. Bland, MBA


ECB President Draghi Roils the Markets

Over the past several months I have kept returning to the theme that the major central banks have been playing a key role in the tone of the markets. Once again they are back in the limelight. This time it was ECB President Draghi who set the stage for major moves in the global financial markets. In a closely-followed speech at an ECB Conference in Portugal, Draghi surprised markets. While he stuck to his usual cautious posture on policy, traders reacted to his unusually upbeat assessment of the European economy where he indicated that its expansion is "broadening" . His comments gave EURUSD a sudden boost through 1.1200 to the 1.1250 area...

Unexpected Sea Change In Policies At Top Tier Central Banks

 




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Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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