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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2017
Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Trading Ideas for 3 July 2017
Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:Mon 3 Jul
00:00 CA- Holiday
All Day Mfg PMIs
Tue 4 Jul
00:00 US- Holiday
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 5 Jul
All Day Service PMIs
19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 6 Jul
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:00 US- ISM Service PMI
Fri 7 Jul
08:30 GB- Output/Trade
12:30 CA/US- Employment
Event Risk Agenda
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
GVI Forex Blog 11:16 GMT July 1, 2017
EURUSD net long positions increased early in the past week, and undoubtedly increased more over the period. Upside EURUSD momentum suddenly gained momentum following early week comments by ECB Presodent Draghi. Psychological 1.1400 support is now key to maintaining this renewed upside momentum. As a reserve currency, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. The European economy is improving and that should remain a EUR positive.
Net GBPUSD positions remained short and steady through the COT data period, but udoubtedly mant shorts were covered in the back half of the week as the GBPUSD folowed the EURUSD higher. Furthermore, BOE Governor Carney took a more hawkish mometary posture after the Draghi comments. The unit is highly sensitive to U.K. economic data, and that is helpful to those of us who rely on active markets. GBPUSD 1.3000 is the demarcation line between strength or weakness. Keep an eye on the EURGBP cross as a barometer of flows in and out of the EUR. These flows often directly impact both units against the USD.
The USDJPY pair continues to be heavily manipulated by the Bank of Japan, which tries to keep its currency depressed to stimulate exports. Whenever the USDJPY starts to slide, expect to to see BOJ support for the pair. Keep in mind, the USDJPY correlates positively with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note. With U.S. rates moving higher, USDJPY longs have INCREASED (=Short JPY futures). Baak of Japan policy is nowhere near tightening!
Amazing Trader john bland 11:12 GMT July 1, 2017
John M. Bland, MBA
Over the past several months I have kept returning to the theme that the major central banks have been playing a key role in the tone of the markets. Once again they are back in the limelight. This time it was ECB President Draghi who set the stage for major moves in the global financial markets. In a closely-followed speech at an ECB Conference in Portugal, Draghi surprised markets. While he stuck to his usual cautious posture on policy, traders reacted to his unusually upbeat assessment of the European economy where he indicated that its expansion is "broadening" . His comments gave EURUSD a sudden boost through 1.1200 to the 1.1250 area...