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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2017

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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GVI Forex Blog 21:19 GMT July 1, 2017
Forex Trading Ideas For 3 July 2017

Trading Ideas for 3 July 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 3 Jul
00:00 CA- Holiday
All Day Mfg PMIs
Tue 4 Jul
00:00 US- Holiday
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 5 Jul
All Day Service PMIs
19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 6 Jul
12:15 US- ADP Jobs
14:00 US- ISM Service PMI
Fri 7 Jul
08:30 GB- Output/Trade
12:30 CA/US- Employment

Forex Trading Outlook

Event Risk Agenda

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Monday-- All Day Global Manufacturing PMIs & Japan BOJ Taknan Surveys closely watched by the markets, but usually not major price movers.

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Tuesday 00:00 US- Independence Day Holiday

  • >EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Tuesday-- 04:30 AU- Reserve Bank of Australia decision. No rate change expected.

  • EVENT RISK: MODERATE-- Wednesday-- All Day Global Service PMIs Closely watched by the markets.

  • EVENT RISK: HIGH-- Wednesday-- US Fed policy minutes. Closely followed by the markets. Can be a major market mover.

  • John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner,

Forex Trading Ideas For 3 July 2017

Haifa ac 17:26 GMT July 1, 2017
Greta Van Susteren FIRED by MSNBC six months after joining the network

Amazing Trader john bland 16:24 GMT July 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Monday Trading Ideas

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike at the September 13, 2017 meeting are now 16% (16%).

EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: HIGHER
Spot EURUSD: 1.1418

Pivot Point: 1.1418

20-day avg: 1.1235
50-day avg: 1.1128
200-day avg: 1.0824

GVI Forex Blog 11:16 GMT July 1, 2017
Amazing Trader Ideas And Commitment Of Trader Data For June 27, 2017

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Forex trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is an imperfect, but useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would prefer more frequent and precise readings, but we have to live with what we get. The data work for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they in big or small.

EUR symbol EURUSD net long positions increased early in the past week, and undoubtedly increased more over the period. Upside EURUSD momentum suddenly gained momentum following early week comments by ECB Presodent Draghi. Psychological 1.1400 support is now key to maintaining this renewed upside momentum. As a reserve currency, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. The European economy is improving and that should remain a EUR positive.

EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

GBP symbolNet GBPUSD positions remained short and steady through the COT data period, but udoubtedly mant shorts were covered in the back half of the week as the GBPUSD folowed the EURUSD higher. Furthermore, BOE Governor Carney took a more hawkish mometary posture after the Draghi comments. The unit is highly sensitive to U.K. economic data, and that is helpful to those of us who rely on active markets. GBPUSD 1.3000 is the demarcation line between strength or weakness. Keep an eye on the EURGBP cross as a barometer of flows in and out of the EUR. These flows often directly impact both units against the USD.

GBPUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

JPY symbol The USDJPY pair continues to be heavily manipulated by the Bank of Japan, which tries to keep its currency depressed to stimulate exports. Whenever the USDJPY starts to slide, expect to to see BOJ support for the pair. Keep in mind, the USDJPY correlates positively with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note. With U.S. rates moving higher, USDJPY longs have INCREASED (=Short JPY futures). Baak of Japan policy is nowhere near tightening!

USDJPY Commitment of Traders Chart

Amazing Trader Ideas And Commitment Of Trader Data For June 27, 2017

Amazing Trader john bland 11:12 GMT July 1, 2017
Unexpected Sea Change In Policies At Top Tier Central Banks

John M. Bland, MBA

ECB President Draghi Roils the Markets

Over the past several months I have kept returning to the theme that the major central banks have been playing a key role in the tone of the markets. Once again they are back in the limelight. This time it was ECB President Draghi who set the stage for major moves in the global financial markets. In a closely-followed speech at an ECB Conference in Portugal, Draghi surprised markets. While he stuck to his usual cautious posture on policy, traders reacted to his unusually upbeat assessment of the European economy where he indicated that its expansion is "broadening" . His comments gave EURUSD a sudden boost through 1.1200 to the 1.1250 area...

Unexpected Sea Change In Policies At Top Tier Central Banks


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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