Forex Futures Forum Archive for 05/13/2004

manila 21:03 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
non-ferrous metallurgy

Non-ferrous metallurgy is mainly represented in Tajikistan by the Tajik Aluminum Plant (TADAZ). The plant was built in 1975, and the choice of its location has been pre-determined by availability of inexpensive electric power and excessive labor force in the republic.

manila 21:01 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
tajik alumni plant
The Tajik Aluminum Plant consists of 30 main and auxiliary plants with 11,000 employees, including 12 electrolysis plants, three facilities for production of 260 tons of burnt anodes, the plant of silicon-transformation substations, two primary aluminum rolling plants, production of rolled aluminum items, the plant for assembly of metal structures, and two shops for production of goods of household use. Apart from main produce, the output of TADAZ includes 44 commodities: automobile wheel discs, doors, window frames, cooking pots, window frame details, canisters, trays, plates, forks, spoons, etc. already for ten years, with technology of Tefal firm, the plant has been producing Teflon dishes of high quality, which is also exported. Of high demand are mini-bakeries of the "Doka-Khleb" type. Since 1999, the plane began assembly of "Minsk" motorcycles in collaboration with the plant in Minsk, and began assembly of bicycles in autumn of 2000.
Raw materials and alumina for the plant are imported from Azerbaijan and Kazakstan.

manila 21:00 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
tadaz-flagship



At present, TADAZ is the flagship of Tajik industry. With its designed capacity of 517,000 tons of aluminum a year, TADAZ is the third large in the world, but, due to objective reasons, it had never worked at full capacity. At best times, the enterprise produced up to 460,000 tons of primary aluminum, yielding large revenue to the state budget. In year 2000, the plant produced 300,000 tons of aluminum.
The main buyers of produce of the aluminum plant are companies of Netherlands, Russia, Turkey, Switzerland, Greece, Turkmenistan, Iran and China

manila 20:59 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
changes in government


Tajikistan has experienced three changes in government and a five-year civil war since it gained independence in 1991 from the USSR. A peace agreement among rival factions was signed in 1997, and implemented in 2000. The central government's less than total control over some areas of the country has forced it to compromise and forge alliances among factions. Attention by the international community in the wake of the war in Afghanistan has brought increased economic development assistance, which could create jobs and increase stability in the long term. Tajikistan is in the early stages of seeking World Trade Organization membership and has joined NATO's Partnership for Peace.


ABOUT TAJIKISTAN
Tajikistan, an independent State of the former Soviet Union has experienced three changes in government and a five-year civil war since it gained independence in 1991 from the USSR. A peace agreement among rival factions was signed in 1997, and implemented in 2000. Most recently, attention by the international community in the wake of the war in Afghanistan has brought increased economic development assistance, which is now creating jobs and increasing stability for the long term. Tajikistan is in the early stages of seeking World Trade Organization membership and has joined NATO's Partnership for Peace. At present there are several mining and exploration operations ongoing in Tajikistan. Gold production alone stands at approximately 3 tonnes of gold each year.

manila 20:58 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
lowest per capita-
Tajikistan has the lowest per capita GDP among the 15 former Soviet republics. Only 8% to 10% of the land area is arable. Cotton is the most important crop. Mineral resources, varied but limited in amount, include silver, gold, uranium, and tungsten. Industry consists only of a large aluminum plant, hydropower facilities, and small obsolete factories mostly in light industry and food processing. The civil war (1992-97) severely damaged the already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Even though 60% of its people continue to live in abject poverty, Tajikistan has experienced steady economic growth since 1997. Continued privatization of medium and large state-owned enterprises will further increase productivity. Tajikistan's economic situation, however, remains fragile due to uneven implementation of structural reforms, weak governance, widespread unemployment, and the external debt burden. A debt restructuring agreement was reached with Russia in December 2002, including an interest rate of 4%, a 3-year grace period, and a US $49.8 million credit to the Central Bank of Tajikistan.

manila 20:57 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
ROAD ACCESS
Although known to the outside world as a "land-locked" country, the Tajik government recently completed the successful extension of the main highway that runs from the capital city of Dushanbe east-southeast through to Khorog. This new extension completes the original Highway, which leaves the city of Khorog and extends east-northeast into Kyrgyzstan, by now including the new eastern extension which crosses into China.
This new extension will allow for economical transportation of product from Tajikistan into China as well has giving Tajikistan access to commercial cargo shipping on an international level.

hydro energy 20:50 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
hydro energy-
Tajikistan possesses rich natural resources, including hydro-energy (8th in the world), precious metals, polymetallic ores, precious stones, coal, etc. The republic has good opportunities for developing ecological tourism

manila 20:49 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
special terms-
With the purpose of attracting foreign capital in Tajik economy, the government of Republic of Tajikistan has introduced special terms for large investors. According to legislation, any joint venture with not less than 30% share of foreign capital, is exempt from tax on income for two years. The same exemptions are provided to foreign investments in amount of $100,000 to $500,000. If the share of foreign investor in the joint venture is between $500,000 and $2 million the period of exemption will be three years. The five year exemption is provided for investments over $5 million.

manila 20:47 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
largest investors

At present, the largest investors in Tajik economy are companies from Canada, USA, Great Britain, Korea, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Hungary and Russia - companies Nelson Gold Corporation (development and mining of gold and silver), Gulf International Minerals (gold mining), Credit Swiss First Boston (futures contracts for cotton), Kabool Textiles (textiles production), Adjind International (textiles). Other successful joint ventures are Zerafshan, Darvaz, Aprelevka, Javoni, Rishta, Khujand Packaging, Marmar, etc.

manila 20:46 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   

North Tajikistan
Despite the privileges for foreign investment, the amount of foreign capital in the republic is not high. It first of all is determined by the unstable political, social and military situation in the country. The investors are reluctant to invest in Tajikistan, and tend to invest only in the economy of the more stable North Tajikistan

Edinburgh Mike 10:50 GMT May 13, 2004 Reply   
Interest Rate Markets Update
UK
We have seen slightly hawkish comments from the BOE this week but I do not think it really changes the picture at all. Clearly the MPC is concerned about the strength of the housing market in as much as it will have an effect on personal debt, consumption and inflation. But they have noted that there is something of a supply issue at work right now which is holding prices up and that this factor is unlikely to fade significantly in the very near term.
Clearly, the recently weaker GBPUSD combined with the higher oil price has something of a double-whammy effect and may cause a blip in inflation but the Bank are looking at this for now as a transitory effect and unlikely to sway their judgement. In fact Mervyn King went as far as to say that if commodity prices spiked significantly higher, it may cause them to hold rates down for longer so as not to hurt the economy.
It is fair to say that there are some price pressures building at the producer level and that these may ultimately feed through to the retail side and thus inflation, but for now very little in the way of price rises are being passed on to consumers.
Employment continues to look healthy and if there is a concern it stems from the headline earnings numbers at 5%. However Q1 was the bonus season and ex-bonus the core figure is under 4%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the annual average is unlikely to top 4.5% for now and the MPC are not particularly concerned that excessive pressure will stem from that source.
However, despite all of the above, rates are still on an upward path and will undoubtedly be higher by the end of 2004. But by how much?
The short sterling futures curve (as best I can calculate it) prices in three 25bp hikes this year in Jun, Aug and Oct and a further 25 bp in Jan 05, taking rates to 5.25%. In my view, this is the most hawkish of scenarios and not what I would call the median probability.
If the BOE does pick up the pace a bit would expect to see, at most, 25bp hikes in July, Sep, Nov and possibly Jan this would mark the Jun contract at 95.54, Sep at 95.14 and Dec at 94.81.
The more optimistic scenario is for 25bp hikes in Aug, Nov and Feb next year taking us to 5% - this would mark the Jun at 95.64, Sep at 95.39 and Dec at 95.16.
I believe that you can take it as read that the BOE prefers to move in 25bp increments and rather increase or decrease the frequency of such hikes, so really we can simply focus on ‘when’ or ‘how often’ than ‘how much’.
It should be clear from all of this that, in my view, short sterling is right at the bottom of its range. If you are of the opinion that the most likely outcome for rates is between the extremes, then it is a bit of a no-brainer to be getting long of short sterling at these levels.