Forex Futures Forum Archive for 10/25/2005

London AL 20:28 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Dec Bonds. 112.14 -21 and after hours slip to 112.06 to retrade the low of Oct 14. the break of 112.30 seems to have done the damage Monthly looks appalling, weekly inside with prior week inside as well. Daily new low close. (previous 112.14) . My question for Spot earlier was meant to say any view on Bonds pls?
Dec Bunds (I prefer not to look at US 10 yrs as they are almost entirely a function of the Bund arbitrage) 121.01 -.69
new low close with an outside trading week with a monthly that just looks like ..... Yesterday Bunds tested their 20dma up at 122. we never seem to exceed more than approx 170 tics away from this ma on the daily just by eyeballing but weekly can extend to approx 350 away from 20 period. suggesting a further 175 tics to fall

London AL 20:19 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Dec Gold 474.7 +7.7
Dec Silver 7.825 +117 did not close quite so well as gold. ie fell back a little into the close where as Gold just kept its bid where the shorts were never let out at all.
GC/EU 391.3 +2.5 still coiling out the 382 -402 range

houston st 20:14 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
DOE crude/product expectations (4 sources)
(mln bbls)

crude +2.00 +1.90 +2.00 +2.35
dist -1.60 -0.80 -1.30 -0.60
unl +1.50 +1.50 +1.50 +0.89

ref utilization +3.5% +3.00% +2.75%

houston st 19:29 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   

10/25/05 Energy Settles:

Crude $62.44 (+$2.12); high $62.55; low $60.90
Nat Gas $14.338 (+1334); high $14.375; low $13.145
Heat $1.8899 (+926); high $1.9000; low $1.8225
Unleaded $1.6538 (+722); high $1.6750; low $1.5850

nice rally today, w/ cold weather, oversold conditions, pre-stat buying, rumor of a new TS forming in the Caribbean, and an electrical outage @ Conoco's NJ refinery all adding to the bullish tone...heat led the way, although nat gas did its fair share to drag crude & unleaded with it...stats tomorrow (I'll post some expectations later)...funds will try to milk this move for all its worth, but frankly we'll need to wait for stats & demand numbers to see if it has any legs, otherwise back down, imho, until good seasonal demand kicks in...here's the latest from MMS:

*MMS update reports 1.034-mbpd or 68.91% of US Gulf oil output still shut-in with cumulative lost production since 8/26 of 68.550 million barrels or 12.521% of annual Gulf output. There were also 238 platforms and 14 rigs evacuated, or 29.06% of 819 manned platforms and 17.91% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. This was another increase in shut-in output.

GVI Research 19:04 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
On Wednesday the markets will await the release of the weekly energy inventory figures at 14:30 GMT. The street expects a build of about 3.0mln barrels in crude oil, a build in gasoline inventories of +2.3mln barrels and a distillates fall of about -1.5mln.

GVI john 18:44 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Big upmove in gold and Crude oil today. Lower dollar at work in gold?

Re oil, cold snap to hit the south tonight. Also I heard this morning that yet another new tropical storm might be brewing in the Carribean. However its target woud likely bre Florida. All very tentative at this juncture.

GVI john 18:40 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Al- don't understand your Q..

Livingston nh 18:11 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Sen. Dorgan is on CNBC trying to socialize the oil industry through taxation - the NY TIMes was out yesterday w/ an editorial in favor of a gas tax to promote "conservation" -- idiotic ideas like this always resurface

London AL 16:44 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Spot. Bonds ?

GVI Research 16:26 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Note relentless rise in 3mo rates (blue line)...

Livingston nh 15:34 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
With 4 trading days left before FOMC the 2 yr treasuries are trying to move away from the fire - the spread between 2s and fed fund target may shrink to 40 after next Tuesday but that compresses the yield curve unless the long end starts to move above 4.5% pretty quick

dc CB 15:18 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
FWIW: last year - Oct 25 which was a Monday - spiked a low that ran up 80 SnP points and 700 dow pts. in 10 trading days.

Livingston nh 14:35 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Tomorrow's energy inventories report should be a test for the lower demand theory - gasoline usage should be back to 9 mio bpd and the y/y comparison that has been the benchmark for the alleged reduction in demand may be neutral // the cumulative effect of lost production is still building

GVI Research 13:47 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   

10-Yr Bonds (Moving Averages)
          Japan      Europe     U.K.       U.S.    U.S.-Germany
LAST      1.51%      3.29%      4.40%      4.45%      +116 bp
20 DAY    1.52       3.22       4.33       4.40       +118
50 DAY    1.43       3.15       4.26       4.26       +111
200DAY    1.35       3.35       4.43       4.23        +88

Livingston nh 13:17 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Strange that the US now looks to the Fed Head as its chief economic soothsayer - Bernanke may cure that particular vice

Livingston nh 13:15 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
John - Burns had been a Nixon advisor - all his theory didn't help him - close the gold window, kill Bretton Woods, remember wage and price controls, then the Saudi oil thing - he had quite a run trying to keep up with that administration

GVI Research 13:11 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Earlier today....

GVI john 12:59 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
NH- recall Burns turned out to be very political...

GVI john 12:58 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
FWIW from a market commentary....

"...The so-called "oil settlement day", when domestic oil exporters convert their U.S. dollar revenues to Canadian dollars, usually on the 25th of each month, tends to benefit the loonie. Testimony to the House of Commons finance committee on Tuesday, and the Senate banking committee on Wednesday by Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge and Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins is also eagerly anticipated to see if it produces any clues to how long this tightening cycle will be... "

Livingston nh 12:46 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
The FOMC still has two vacancies to be filled - first time I can remember an economist Fed Head being replaced by an economist - but perhaps this is more important that the pragmatic Martin was replaced by academic Arthur Burns and now the pragmatic G'span is being replaced by academic Bernanke

GVI john 11:36 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
September 2005

The 12-month change in the All-items index excluding energy remained stable at 1.6%, while the 12-month change in the All-items index (CPI) jumped to 3.4%. This 12-month change represents a significant increase compared to the 2.6% advance recorded in August 2005. For the past year, the 12-month change in the All-items index excluding energy has been between 1.4% and 1.7%.

The strong increase in the 12-month change in the All-items index was due mostly to higher gasoline prices. A large price increase for gasoline played a substantial part in the rise in the 12-month percentage change to 34.7% compared with 20.1% in August.

Like the All-items index excluding energy, the All-items index excluding the eight volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada remained stable. The 12-month percentage change remained at 1.7% in September and has not risen above 2% since December 2003.

On a monthly basis, the CPI All-items index rose by 0.9% in September. There have been only three increases of comparable magnitude over the past 15 years. Not since the introduction of the GST in January 1991, and the increase in tobacco and gasoline taxes in May 1989, has a monthly increase exceeded 0.9%. Most of the monthly increase this September was due to higher prices for gasoline and men's and women's clothing.

GVI john 11:35 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
In the wake of the Bernanke nomination, the 10-yr note is making another attempt at distancing itself from the 4.40% line. Note today that the key twenty-day moving average (4.40%) has closed into that level. Thus 4.40% is the key support level that must hold as the market tries to drive long term U.S. rates lower. As always, there is a risk that traders could get over-extended on the short side. The 10-yr bond minus bund spread is lower at +116 bps (-1bp). The 20-day average of that spread is 118 bps. The 10-yr minus 2-yr spread is +19 bps (unchanged).

GVI Research 11:33 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   

2YR	 %	bp chg	1 wk	 4 wk	3mo	YTD	 12 mo
AUS	535	2	0	10	14	30	29
JGB	26	0	-3	6	26	26	26
GILT	418	2	5	7	19	-5	-13
BUND	245	2	2	18	27	3	12
CHF	114	1	9	26	36	44	38
CAD	351	1	3	21	52	51	33
US	426	1	2	18	32	118	173
							
10YR	 %	bp chg	1 wk	 4 wk	3mo	YTD	 12 mo
AUS	543	1	-2	10	22	10	9
JGB	151	1	-5	12	25	7	9
GILT	440	5	0	11	9	-13	-28
BUND	329	4	1	16	5	-34	-54
CHF	195	5	4	8	-2	-43	-65
CAD	405	0	-1	11	17	-25	-42
US	445	0	-2	16	22	23	45
							
10-2YR	 %	bp chg	1 wk	 4 wk	3mo	YTD	 12 mo
AUS	8	-0	-2	0	8	-21	-21
JGB	126	1	-3	6	-0	-18	-16
GILT	9	3	-5	4	-10	-8	-15
BUND	84	2	-1	-2	-22	-37	-66
CHF	71	4	-5	-18	-38	-87	-103
CAD	54	-1	-5	-10	-35	-76	-75
US	19	-1	-4	-2	-10	-95	-128

Melbourne Qindex 11:32 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
DJIA : On Tuesday the daily directional indicator of DJIA is 10254* - 10321 - (10412). This would suggest that the market will consolidate between 10254 - 10412 for the time being. Level to watch is 10441. 


DJIA : Trading Reference


... 10055* ... 10132* ... // 10210* - 10248 - 10287* - 10325 - [10364]* - 10403 - 10441* - 10480 - 10519* // ... 10596* ... 10673* ...


DJIA : Daily Trading Reference 

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
S&P 500 (SP,CME) : On Tuesday the daily directional indicator of S&P 500, December contract, is 1193.2 - 1200.4* - (1205.8). This would suggest that the market is going to consolidate further within the range of 1193.2 - 1205.8 for the time being. Level to watch is 1203.2.

S&P 500 : Trading Reference

... 1166.5* ... 1171.1* ... // 1175.7* - 1178.0 - 1180.3* - 1182.6 - [1184.9]* - 1187.1 - 1189.4* - 1191.7 - 1194.0* // ... 1198.6* ... 1203.2* ...

S&P 500 : Daily Trading Reference

Syd 06:17 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
DJ Cumerio: Copper Prices Rise To "All-Time Highs"

London AL 05:52 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
GC/EU 390.4 coiling out within a range 385 398.5 which was lightly stretched on friday to 382. mkt has retraced 1/3rd of sept/oct range. buy stops likely > 392 and 393

Syd 04:22 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Gold has slipped from recent highs on long liquidation but net longs still significant, gold remains vulnerable to further sales, says censored. "Physical demand remains light with no sign of any panic from a still-short physical market and, barring renewed and sustained U.S. dollar weakness or further increases in inflation expectations, gold should trade lower in coming weeks"; says metal may fall fast if $457 support were to give way.

Melbourne Qindex 00:33 GMT October 25, 2005 Reply   
Hang Seng Index : On Tuesday the daily directional indicator of Hang Seng Index is (14279) - 14438 - 14803*. This would suggest that the market is going to consolidate further within the daily directional indicator. Speculative buying pressure will increase if the market trades above 14532. The level to watch is 14715.

Hang Seng Index : Trading Reference


... 13783* ... 13939* ... // 14093* - 14170 - 14247* - 14325 - [14402]* - 14479 - 14557* - 14634 - 14712* // 14866* ... 15021* ...


Hang Seng Index : Daily Trading Reference