Livingston nh 17:00 GMT December 1, 2005
John - at what point do the "double toppers" in the 10 yr start to throw in the towel?? /// your +/- 100 bps treasury/bund indicator hit the mark again
houston st 16:42 GMT December 1, 2005
some energy bullets for today:
*OPECís incoming President noted that he did not see a need to cut oil production at its December 12th meeting. Strong 2006 oil demand was expected to keep prices from falling below current levels.
*Reuters reported that Iraqi oil exports fell in November to 1.21 mbd from Octoberís 1.24 mbd. Oil exports through the north remain hampered by sabotage and poor weather at port facilities in southern Iraq have led to fewer loadings.
*Suncor said that it expected average production from its oil sands to reach on average 260K bpd.
*BPís Texas City refinery restart may be a little slow. The steam system that helps the plant produce gasoline requires a lot of time to restart. It was noted that other time consuming issues may also be present and that no exact date would be given for the resumption of normal operations.
*Citgoís Corpus Christi refinery restarted its alkylation unit on Wednesday after maintenance.
*A joint venture between Motiva, Shell Oil and Saudi Refining Inc, is going to expand a 235K bpd refinery in Port Arthur Texas by 320K bpd.
houston st 15:38 GMT December 1, 2005
Nat gas stocks fell 49 bcf to 3.225 tcf against the expectation of a draw of 43 bcf.
GVI Research 15:19 GMT December 1, 2005
GVI Research 15:04 GMT December 1, 2005
Target 2.25% outlook
Mtg Jan 12 unch
3mo 2.47 -0.00
Futures implied chg
Dec05 2.49 -0.03
Mar06 2.67 -0.06
Jun06 2.80 -0.07
Sep06 2.86 -0.07
Livingston nh 14:52 GMT December 1, 2005
Fade the US equities into Friday - OEX 480 puts (Dec)
GVI john 12:18 GMT December 1, 2005
Ahead of the ECB rate hike announcement, the spread on the 10-yr bond minus bund spread has widened to 111bps from 105bps early Wednesday. Bund markets will be intensely focused on the comments by ECB President Trichet. All the while, U.S. data this week has shocked treasury markets. The 10-yr is back testing the psychological 4.50% line. Key resistance remains the old 4.53% line. The 10s minus 2s spread is +7bps (-1). 5s minus 2s are +1bps (+1).
GVI Research 11:57 GMT December 1, 2005
YTD changes interesting on a comparative basis (small moves)
10YR % bp chg 1 wk 4 wk 3mo YTD
AUS 536 -2 -3 -20 35 3
JGB 145 2 1 -12 13 1
GILT 420 -3 0 -23 9 -33
BUND 339 -4 0 -8 34 -24
CHF 214 0 -1 -2 29 -24
CAD 406 -2 6 -12 34 -24
US 449 -0 2 -16 47 27
Mtl JP 09:58 GMT December 1, 2005
Can someone plz confirm (or disspell) the following:
"...You are saying that bank loans are 80% in real estate in Las Vegas." "No," he replied, "I said in the 80s. In fact, it's the high 80s."
I asked if Las Vegas is unique. He said that he has heard similar figures about Phoenix and the southeast, presumably meaning Florida. ... " tia.
Syd 04:35 GMT December 1, 2005
China's State Reserve Bureau, widely deemed to have built 100,000-200,000 tons of short positions in 3-month LME copper, expected to deliver only 30,000-50,000 tons of copper to LME warehouses ahead of expiry of alleged short positions Dec. 21. Traders speculate SRB has rolled majority of short positions forward to March 2006 through its brokerage in London, betting LME copper will fall from current record high level from now on.
Syd 01:56 GMT December 1, 2005
China's State Regulation Center of Supplies Reserve will offer 20,000 metric tons of copper Dec. 7, its fourth copper reserves auction in recent weeks.
houston st 00:22 GMT December 1, 2005
11/30/05 Energy Settles:
Crude $57.32 (+.82); high $57.40; low $56.00
Nat Gas $12.587 (+851); high $12.650; low $11.800
Dec05 Heat $1.6164 (+67); high $1.6300; low $1.5875
Jan06 Heat $1.6897 (+177); high $1.6940; low $1.6525
Dec05 Unleaded $1.4249 (+298); high $1.4500; low $1.3850
Jan06 Unleaded $1.4971 (+415); high $1.5000; low $1.4480
goodbye Xmas heat/mogas...hello cold weather...nice rally today, particularly in crude...DOEs showed a decent draw in crude, although the build in heat was a surprise (again)...mkt finally shook that and the Dec05 product expirations off and buyers came back in to reverse this week's decline...would be nice to see more of a two-way mkt and some consolidation as seasonal demand eventually kicks in...nat gas led the rally back today...crude imports were reported down by over 500,000/bpd (a good sign)...refinery runs increased by 1.2%...crude supported @ $56 & resistance @ $57.75...keep an eye on crude out-month contango spread - it is beginning to widen out this week...nat gas stats tomorrow, and colder weather will be supportive (as will another week of bullish EIAs)...expectations are for a withdrawal of -43/bcf...thx to Dec05 expiration Monday Jan06 is well above $12.000...support @ $11.70ish...resistance @ $12.70 & $13.15...news-wise, OPEC still suggesting there will be no quota change at the Dec. 12 mtg...take that for what it's worth...MMS latest update showed another minimal rise in Gulf output...gl/gt.