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Forex Futures Forum Archive for 01/1/2006
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London AL 21:38 GMT January 1, 2006
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COT: additional to Cumino's analysis
S&P Commercial net Short S&P & e-Minis & Spec Long S&P but Short the e-Minis
NAZ Comm. Net Short Big and Mini contracts & Spec Long both contracts. Spec could still be vulnerable to a "dow"ndraft
DOW Comm. Short. Spec Long without much change in a week. Hhmm. Minis show Comm. Short and Spec Long. ! Spec still vulnerable to one more plunge
RUSS Comm. Long without much change in position Spec in balance in big contract but Short in Minis and again no change in position so suggesting that there is a degree of hedged positions
30 yrs Comm. Been covering up some Longs in the rally - Still leaves them net Long - Specs net Short and doing some Short covering but not as much as one would expect. Leaves them vulnerable to a possible spike higher (yields lower) as the curve continues to invert
2 yrs Comm. Building a small Long and Spec trying to get their Long possy back to balance by increasing their Short exposure. Net Spec remain Long
10 yrs Comm. Reducing Longs. The question is what is their position in EU Bunds. Spec HUGE Long (110k) - has to be short in Bunds. So does this explain the relative outperformance by Bunds
5 yrs From a Market Profile point of view the 5 yrs has been the best proxy of the real open Bond possy.
Comm. Net long and reducing both sides. Spec perfectly in balance
Silver Comm. Net Short Spec Long not much change on the week
GOLD Comm. Short and Spec Long. Remember the comm..is the producer
ENERGY:
Heat Both sides in balance. Have been for ages
Nat Gas Comm. very much in balance but Spec twice as Short as Long
Crude Comm. Net Long and not only increasing Long but decreasing their Short exposure. Spec Short and increasing Shorts! May be vulnerable to a squeeze
Unleaded Comm. Net Short. Spec net Long almost on a ratio of 3 Long: 1 Short
Canada 02:08 GMT January 1, 2006
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"One common adage...that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits."
William Eckhardt
http://www.tradingquotes.blogspot.com
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