Forex Futures Forum Archive for 04/25/2006

Vienna GD 17:58 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
Taipei Maro 16:29 ... oh yes, yesterday 3-4 bucks, after the first 20 dollar move ... LOL.

Taipei Maro 16:29 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
censored, copper short got stopped out, this is just crazy, will try jumping into the train going south if there will ever be...
wonder if we will ever see copper under 220 again :) unbelievable run, no retreat at all

Vienna GD 15:44 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
Information on VLO regarding trendline not correct ... but at least it is in the making of an intraday key reversal ... so far, because the day is still long.

Vienna GD 15:32 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
VLO, like others, broke trendline which started early march ... nice trading opportunities.

Vienna GD 15:30 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
Oil again lower .... stocks following ... so far.

Tonbridge AL 15:23 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
IBM announced a buy back and div increase took stocks off intra-day lows. coupled with W saying SPR will stop buying gave support to a weak(ish) market. 1310 is key to June S&P 10336 for Mini-Dow and note Naz continues to spend loads of time < March settlement. With long bonds at 5.15% and headed for 5-3/8% and plenty of money being printed we may have to be selective with stks

Vienna GD 15:11 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - Barclays Capital Inc. has deposited 1.5 million ounces of silver with a custodian to back its planned iShares Silver Trust, said Barclays Global Investors in a filing with U.S. regulators on Monday.
The deposit was made on Friday, said Barclays in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Vienna GD 14:57 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
TNX 50.71 actually ... at some point the dollar and the euro and the stock market and ... will have to take notice!

Vienna GD 14:53 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
Gold and silver and copper stocks don't confirm todays (huge) rally in the metals ... due to another "blow off" day or due to the stock market decline? To early to be sure.
SIL again down.

Dow again lower ... so far already traded below important support 113.10/15.
We had 5th hindenburg omen recently.
Last weeks "reversal" (Thu) confirmed so far.

Kiwi, my early indicator of trend reversal is heading lower.
Also Audusd should be higher after todays metal rally.

Coming closer to new moon and end of jupiter-neptun square.
Be careful here ... my exposure more or less small here, except for the stock market shorts ... 19y cycle ... 1987 was the last crash ... the next is in the making ... IMHO & DYOD ... GL and GT

Syd 05:23 GMT April 25, 2006 Reply   
How Big Is the Iran Premium in Gold?

When one scans Reuters, Bloomberg, and Dow Jones Newswires for commodity price updates, the expert commentary from commodity traders, etcetera, in each makes reference to the U.N.?s end of April deadline for Iran to cease uranium enrichment.

The question is then, how much of this is translating into extra buying in the market that would not otherwise be there ? in other words, how great is the premium?

This is much harder to quantify than it was leading up to the ?shock and awe? campaign, because now that we are into the second leg of the bull market, and gold is acting like a currency, there are sundry other factors that could in theory account for the strength in the metal.

So should one attempt to gauge the situation by looking at column inches, or ink dedicated to the Iran story? If that anecdotal, unscientific method is used, then bulls will take comfort in the fact that Iran is listed as just one of a number of reasons why gold has shown an ability to stay above $600 an ounce.

It seems to your correspondent that if that angle is played up more prominently in the coming weeks, it will be time to move out of the trade.

War Pending?

It is patently obvious to even the amateur geopolitical observer that there will be no war with Iran, certainly not emanating from the United States. Could the Israelis take on the task of firing a few precision-guided bunker busters or the like at suspected nuclear sites? This is a possibility, and probably a more likely outcome, but it would not be enough to sustain these levels in the yellow metal for very long.

Conclusion

Though there must be some Iran premium in gold right now, it does not appear to be on the scale that it was in the prelude to the Iraq war, or to the extent that it exists in oil prices right now.

There are so many other reasons for gold to go up at the moment, that unless it becomes stark that a massive Iran premium has built itself into the price, there will most likely not be a sharp drop in the yellow metal on that account.

Of course, Iran aside, whether over the next few weeks gold decides to consolidate here, tumble to $550 an ounce, or make a run at $700, is anybody?s guess.