Forex Futures Forum Archive for 05/19/2006

Syd 14:26 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
Technical Special: Copper Leading Big Move In Metals
July copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange last week hit a fresh contract and all-time high of $4.04 a pound. Prices have since backed off significantly on profit-taking pressure from recent gains, including sharp losses Friday that did produce a limit-down move at one point.

Given the bull market run to stratospheric heights in copper futures, many market watchers are now calling the red industrial metal a "precious" metal, too. Importantly, all metals market traders need to keep an extra close watch on the copper market. It's likely that copper will continue to lead the next major price move in metals futures, after the present consolidation period in these markets plays out.

Friday's sharp pullback in July copper futures prices has produced some near-term technical damage. A weekly low close on Friday would spook the bulls even more and would suggest that the corrective pullback can continue early next week.

There is some solid near-term technical support located at the $3.35 level in July copper. Just above that level, support is located at Friday's low of $3.44 a pound. June Comex gold futures did hit a fresh three-week low of $657 an ounce in Friday morning dealings. However, no serious technical damage has occurred. A weekly low close on Friday would provide the bears with some added technical momentum heading into the new trading week next Monday.

Also, the bulls can correctly argue that the big increase in price volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal of at least some serious downside corrective pressure, if not even a near-term market top.

For the gold market bulls to regain the near-term technical initiative, they will have to produce a close back above major psychological resistance at $700 an ounce, basis June futures.

On the downside, June gold does see solid technical support at $650 an ounce. But it would take multiple closes below major psychological support at $600 an ounce to produce serious near-term chart damage to begin to suggest a major market top is in place.

Syd 14:23 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
PIMCO Managing Director Bill Gross said there's no reason to doubt the new Fed chair's inflation-fighting credentials, telling Bloomberg TV that "Ben does have the right stuff" on this front. Gross said the recent uptick in inflation needs to be watched but the key for policymakers will be incoming evidence about whether the economy is slowing. "I'm concerned, I think Bernanke's concerned, but I think the focal point will be employment" and other data reflecting on growth.

Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
S&P (June) : The daily directional indicator is 1272.6 - 1296.7* - (1307.5). The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - 1250.0* - 1257.6* - 1266.8* - 1272.6 - 1273.2 - 1276.9 - 1290.6* - 1293.0* - 1296.5 - 1296.7* - 1301.1 - 1303.0 - (1307.5) - 1319.8 - 1343.5* (One have to be very alerted if the market exceeds either end of the distribution profile). The market is under pressure if it is trading below 1272.6. A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 1287.0 - 1287.5. A projected supporting level is located at 1246.1 - 1247.1.

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S&P (Sept) : The daily directional indicator is 1279.2 - 1290.5* - (XXXX.X). The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - 1234.1* - 1267.4* - 1278.6* - 1279.2 - 1284.9 - 1287.4 - 1290.5 - 1296.7 - 1307.9 - 1312.0 - 1317.3* - 1314.5 - 1330.9* - 1346.8* (One have to be very alerted if the market exceeds either end of the distribution profile). The market is under pressure if it is trading below 1279.2. A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 1294.3 - 1294.7. A projected supporting level is located at 1247.1 - 1248.3.

 


Daily Directional Indicator


This is a set of three numbers generated by the system, arranged in ascending order of value: the daily, 3-day and weekly cycle's "super magnet" which is the center of the projected series in these respective cycles. 

The weekly cycle and 3-day cycle super magnets remain unchanged within the week. The daily cycle super magnet varies on a daily basis.

The 3-day cycle "super magnet" is marked with an asterisk; the weekly cycle "super magnet" is enclosed in parentheses; the daily cycle "super magnet" is unmarked.

If trading remains within the range of the three super magnets, we would assume a range market.

Indications are negative when the market trades below the range of the three "super magnets" and moves away from it. Indications are positive if the market trades above the range of the three "super magnets" and moves away from it. 

If the market loses momentum (whether it is trading above or below the super magnet range), it pulls back towards the range of the three "super magnets".

A "Cross Over" occurs if the daily cycle super magnet of the following day shifts to the other side of the weekly cycle super magnet compared to the preceding day's set of indicators. This indicates a need for caution as the market may be changing its trend and may see an acceleration in upward or downward movement.

Melbourne Qindex 11:32 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
Crude Oil (June) : The daily directional indicator is (70.27) - 70.86 - 73.17*. The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - 68.09* - 68.62* - 68.74 - 69.35* - 69.45* - 69.49 - 69.87* - 70.13 - (70.27) - 70.86 - 71.09 - 71.85 - 73.17* (One have to be very alerted if the market exceeds either end of the distribution profile). The market is under pressure when it is trading below (70.27). A projected supporting level is expected at 66.66 - 66.96. A projected resistant level is positioning at 73.78 - 73.85.  

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Crude Oil (July) : The daily directional indicator is (XX.XX) - 71.87 - 73.36*. The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - 66.05* - 66.82* - 69.51 - 69.92 - 69.86* - 70.15 - 71.02 - (XX.XX) - 72.52* - 72.87 - 73.36* - 75.59 - 79.90*. (One have to be very alerted if the market exceeds either end of the distribution profile). The market is positive if it is trading above 73.36*. A projected supporting barrier is located at 67.99 - 68.36. A projected resistant level is positioning at 75.01 - 75.38. 




Daily Directional Indicator


This is a set of three numbers generated by the system, arranged in ascending order of value: the daily, 3-day and weekly cycle's "super magnet" which is the center of the projected series in these respective cycles. 

The weekly cycle and 3-day cycle super magnets remain unchanged within the week. The daily cycle super magnet varies on a daily basis.

The 3-day cycle "super magnet" is marked with an asterisk; the weekly cycle "super magnet" is enclosed in parentheses; the daily cycle "super magnet" is unmarked.

If trading remains within the range of the three super magnets, we would assume a range market.

Indications are negative when the market trades below the range of the three "super magnets" and moves away from it. Indications are positive if the market trades above the range of the three "super magnets" and moves away from it. 

If the market loses momentum (whether it is trading above or below the super magnet range), it pulls back towards the range of the three "super magnets".

A "Cross Over" occurs if the daily cycle super magnet of the following day shifts to the other side of the weekly cycle super magnet compared to the preceding day's set of indicators. This indicates a need for caution as the market may be changing its trend and may see an acceleration in upward or downward movement.

Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
S&P 500 (Future) : The lower barrier at 1241.4 // 1265.2 is going to be challenged. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1312.8

Trading Reference : -

... 1217.6* - 1241.4 // 1265.2* - 1289.0 - [1312.8]* - 1336.7 - 1360.5* // 1384.3 - 1408.1* ...


Monthly Cycle : The market is under pressure when it is trading under the lower barrier of the projected series at 1263.9 // 1279.4*. As shown in my monthly cycle charts panic selling can be triggered if the market can't stablized at the extreme end of the ranges at 1243.1 - 1253.5 - 1263.9. A projected barrier is located at 1274.2 and a resistant level is positioning at 1305.3 - 1315.6.


S&P 500 (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the frequency chart of my weekly cycle, the market has a potential to vibrate around 1266.4 with an expected magnitude of 1257.2 - 1275.5. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 1248.1 and 1284.6 respectively. The projected series indicates that the market is under pressure when it is trading under the barrier at 1269.8 // 1282.3 

Melbourne Qindex 07:36 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
Crude Oil : Projected resistant barriers are located at 70.37 - 70.93 and 73.62 - 74.27. A projected supporting level is expected at 67.12 - 67.60. The market is under pressure when it is trading below [73.62]* The market has a potential to tackle the lower barrier at 63.88 // 67.12.

Trading Reference :-

... 60.63* - 63.88 // 67.12* - 70.37 - [73.62]* - 76.86 - 80.11* // 83.36 - 86.60* ...


Crude Oil (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 64.75 - 68.55 - 76.17. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the center of the projected series at [74.27]*. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 64.75 - 79.98.



Crude Oil (Weekly Cycle) : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the congested area. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 70.27 - 71.06. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 67.88 - 75.83. The market has a potential to tackle the lower barrier at 65.50 // 67.09 if it is trading below 68.68*. A projected resistant point is positioning at 74.24. The market is likely to consolidate between 67.88 - 69.47 - 71.06 for the time being.

sanfrancisco analyst 03:46 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
Increasing Japanese growth creating better than 50/50 odds for a, dare I say it, rate hike?

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT May 19, 2006 Reply   
Australia All Ords : Is 5050 going to be penetrated again?

I guess we have to wait until the markets opened in Japan and Hong Kong. As posted at the front page of my website (qindex.com) the significant level at the lower end for Nikkei-225 (future) is 15810. In the last New York session the market closed at 15850. In the case of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (cash), the significant level is 15937. Hang Seng closed at 16267 yesterday and there is room for a fall of 330 before any panic selling can be triggered.