Forex Futures Forum Archive for 05/25/2006

Melbourne Qindex 08:52 GMT May 25, 2006 Reply   
S&P (June) : In the last three trading days of this week the market was able to make a rally from the extreme low of 1252 - 1258 to 1272 - 1277. The negative signal is still hoisted in my system since the market fails to settle above 1277.7 (see the front page of my website at qindex.com). The primary concerned for this month is the following statement "As shown in my monthly cycle charts panic selling can be triggered if the market can't stablized at the extreme end of the ranges at 1243.1 - 1253.5 - 1263.9."


The current expected lower range is 1251.5 - 1252.8 and the expected upper trading range is 1274.6 - 1278.1. The daily directional indicator is 1262.0* - 1263.0 - (1285.4). The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - 1227.8* - (1232.9) - 1251.8 - 1259.0 - 1261.3* - 1262.0* - 1263.0 - 1264.1* - 1265.7* - 1270.2 - 1281.2 - (1285.4) - 1296.2* - 1310.5 - (1337.9) (One have to be very alerted if the market exceeds either end of the distribution profile within this week). The market is under pressure if it is trading below 1262.0. A projected supporting level is expected at 1227.6 - (1232.9). A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 1286.2 - 1286.5 

Tonbridge AL 07:47 GMT May 25, 2006 Reply   
Swiss futures closed today for the holiday but Eurex/Deutsche Boerse open despite the multi state German holiday as well.

Syd 02:03 GMT May 25, 2006 Reply   
Wheat prices in the U.S. will be supported in the short term but could then face sharp downward pressure as funds exit en masse, according to an analysis issued Thursday by Australian wheat exporter AWB Ltd. (AWB.AU).

Michael Vaughan, AWB's grain manager in Australia's New South Wales state, said for now U.S. wheat prices appear to have some decent supporting factors, but this might not prove the case in the medium term.

Short-term support comes from good demand via a run of export tenders and uncertainty surrounding U.S. corn and Hard Red Winter wheat crops.

Any resolution to these crop factors is unlikely until as late as July, so "grain prices will remain reasonably well supported in the short term," he wrote in a weekly column in The Land farm newspaper.

However, medium term factors suggest a sharp price drop is possible, he wrote.

Historical supply and demand and price correlations suggest U.S. wheat futures could be trading well above levels that current supply projections would indicate, he wrote.

Moreover, funds now hold record positions in wheat futures contracts.

"The concern is that if the U.S. has trendline yields or better and the Soft Red Winter wheat crop performs as expected, then the eventual correction will exaggerated by the funds liquidating their huge bought position," he wrote.

AWB's weekly column in the newspaper is submitted several days before publication and can't account for the latest price moves.

The article didn't indicate any price levels.