Forex Futures Forum Archive for 07/15/2006

Vienna GD 23:53 GMT July 15, 2006 Reply   
US 'could be going bankrupt' ... LINK

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Tonbridge AL 11:41 GMT July 15, 2006 Reply   
COT: Stocks
S&P: Comm. Short with little change but in the Mini they are taking profits
The Spec are Long the Big and both sides increased equally Longs and Shorts in the Mini (Similar to the NAZ - Are they running two accounts running long in one and short in another?) – Net Net they are Flat being balance by Longs in the big and Short in the mini
NAZ: Comm. Having persisted with their Long in both the big and the mini have made some minor adjustments. They reduced exposure slightly in the Big but increased their Longs in the Mini. !
Spec are Short both the big and the mini but and clearly an element of dissent has broken out in that both Longs and Shorts equally increased.
Net Net the Comm is Long the Naz and the Spec is Short and now have trade location by a decent margin
Russell 2k: Comm. Small Long and lightly increasing whereas the Spec did not participate happy to remain lightly short
In the Mini the Comm. Is short and Spec Long
But
It would appear that the Comm. Is therefore net Short and the Spec Net Long
DOW: Comm. Short big and Long Mini but netted out it is a reasonable short. Spec Long the big AND the mini and may be vulnerable to downdrafts

net Net the Comm is short S&P Long NAZ Shor Dow and Long RUssel
The Spec is in balance in the S&P Short the Naz Long the DOw and Long the Russels.
Net Net this still leaves the spec vulnerable to the downside

Tonbridge AL 11:38 GMT July 15, 2006 Reply   
COT: Fixed Income
Bonds: Comm. Long but reducing exposure via a reduction of Longs and Increase in Shorts 2nd week running
Spec Short and for 2nd week running both sides reducing but still leaves them Short 2:1 ratio
10 yrs: Looks like the Comm. For 2nd week remain in perfect balance. Spec meanwhile who last few weeks have opened up a Large long have started to reduce But clearly much will be hedged by shorts in the Bunds and explains the rally of the Bund market tail end of last week
5 yrs: Frequently the best proxy for overall position in the US Bond markets: Comm. Long BUT reducing exposure on both sides and Spec Long and reducing as well
2 yrs: Comm. FLIPPED to short. Spec decent reduction by both sides leaves FLIPPED to long
Last week I said it looked like all round everyone trying to get back to balance I did not expect them to flip the positions around
Federal Funds: Comm. Short but reducing exposure. Spec Flipped to Long

Tonbridge AL 11:35 GMT July 15, 2006 Reply   
COT: Metals:
Gold: Comm. Short and lightly increasing (Remember the Comm. is the producer. Spec Long and increasing last week via a reduction in Short exposure and an increase in Longs..This week clear outright buying
Silver: Comm. Short Spec Long
11:40 is still pivotal
Copper: Comm. Having opened up a small Long seems to have taken a few profits and reduced long exposure lightly. Spec Small Short and continue to reduce exposure in the rally

Tonbridge AL 11:35 GMT July 15, 2006 Reply   
COT: Softs:
Wheat: Comm. Increasing Longs last week this week sold into the rally and increased shorts.
Spec moved from Balance to Short back to balance over last 2 weeks
Corn: Comm. Short and Increasing last week via reduction of Long exposure this week via a big increase in shorts. Spec huge increase in overall positions Net Long and Increasing 2 weeks ago further increased their Long exposure by decreasing shorts
Beans: Comm. Long but taking profits 2 week running . Decent drop in Long exposure last week this week matched by decent increase in Short exposure. Spec Short and for 2nd week running for cover and almost back to balance but with a tiny short overall though