Forex Futures Forum Archive for 07/24/2006

Syd 23:15 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
With Fed's next move on rates only 2 weeks away there's stalemate among futures traders whether it'll hike or pause; indecision's evident in contracts for both short-, long-term rates. August Fed funds futures pricing in about 42% chance of 25bp hike Aug. 8, those at longer-end also reveal market is "right down the middle" on rate calls, says Barclays' Robert Tzucker. Latest CFTC data show commercial traders reluctant to take either side on Fed policy; as of last Tuesday, traders in 10-year Treasury futures held about 1.26 million longs, around same number of shorts. Short-, long-term rate contracts little changed though inverted spread on December 2006, 2007 Eurodollars continues to widen; now 25 bps. "The interest rate market appears to agree with Bernanke that (rate) tightening in the pipeline will slow future growth," says ABN Amro's Alex Manzara

USA Zeus 22:29 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Dow up huge today- Da big boyz know what's up! C
A CHING ggggg

USA Zeus 22:28 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Hedge triggered on gold starting at 603.50

Lahore FM 17:49 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 15:41 GMT July 24, 2006
nt dear,what fight with the trend?can you be precise which trade you are referring to?

houston st 17:37 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   

fwiw, talk of tropical storm for corpus area....thelink to nice satellite image.

houston st 17:08 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   

AL -- the planets are lined up to juice it there again...time may be the only negative for aug06 at this point...I'm curious to see how mkt handles the rollover this week...with all the ng in stg I'm betting we go back down, but funds may take the lead here and put the hurt on shorts...tks for the info...gl/gt.

Tonbridge AL 16:59 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
st: 100 dma on Nat Gas has been touched 3 times (Feb 1st, April 19th, Jun 15th) since Jan 5th currently at 7.041

houston st 16:56 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   

nice move up in nat gas, above the monthly BP...aug06 contract currently @ $6.600, reportedly on combination of short squeeze & spot buying for generation...extreme extension here would get us up to $6.900...keep in mind emini terminates Wed, and full contract on Thursday...

sept06 crude finally found a heatbeat and is approaching well defined resistance near the monthly high pivot zone ($75.06-$75.77), as well as the new weekly BP ($75.82)...

hong kong nt 15:41 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
LAHORE FM -- recently, seems u prefer to fight with the trend..

Vienna GD 15:11 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Barrons ... Time to buy

Overly depressed stocks -- particularly large caps -- look poised for a second-half rally, even if global political and economic turmoil lingers. The biggest bargains include familiar names such as General Electric, Home Depot, Cisco, Nestlé and Lehman Brothers.

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Still wonder why there is a stock market rally?!!
Smart money in need of more sheep and bagholders ... hehehe.
Complete article in trading forum!

USA Zeus 14:33 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Still trailing gold to hedge shorts from 720's down down down it has gone of course since lifting the hedge.

Vienna GD 14:30 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 15:17 GMT July 22, 2006
... several folks/investors think that next week and esp. 7/24 could be a turning point for the broads. July 23/24 also bradley turning point, July 25 also fullmoon DYOD.

Nothing else to be said ... except: nothing changed: rallies are to be sold ... mediumterm, longterm.

Lahore FM 12:59 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Seek,62 was never my target and even if it is to be some time in the future,i will likely say so.

hong kong seek 12:52 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:36 GMT July 24, 2006
not wait 62x ?

GVI john 12:49 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
From Houston ST...

"Some well defined resistance here just above current levels...all the way up to the monthly BP area of $6.45...nat gas seems to have disengaged from crude for the moment, so watch spot prices for s/t direction...emini contract terminates on Wednesday...the full contract on Thursday, which is also stats day...below the weekly BP ($5.970) and monthly pivot low ($5.75-$5.59) offer support."

CLICK TO VIEW"

Lahore FM 12:36 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Correction**

closed 612.50 gold long at 612.50**.

Lahore FM 12:35 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
closed 612.50 gold long at 212.50.

GVI john 12:23 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
From Houston ST..

"Upper resistance held strong this week in spite of the ongoing turmoil in the ME. Crude broke a 3-day cycle to form a downtrend for the week.

Wednesday's rollover to the sept06 contract didn't seem to impact it much, as it consolidated/rotated between the monthly high pivot and weekly low pivot support zones. New weekly pivot zones are now in play, with the monthly high pivot zone ($75.09-$75.80) still offering resistance, along w/ the weekly BP zone. Support areas are the 3-month BP ($72.92) and the weekly low pivot zone ($72.87-$72.19), followed by the monthly BP ($72.05)."

CLICK TO VIEW

GVI john 12:19 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
From Houston ST..

"Sept06 euro futures started the week by continuing its downtrend, breaking through the key 3-month BP, and the weekly pivot low before finally finding support at the bottom of the monthly pivot low (while also piercing the July support area) and began rotating back up. It closed above both the 3-month BP and the July 50% level, and will begin the week just under the weekly BP level (1.2752) and trio (1.2760).
These levels, along with the weekly pivot high zone (1.2783/1.2812), will define the euro strength in the market for this next week/remainder of the month, and a potential move back towards the monthly BP (1.2823) and beyond."

CLICK TO VIEW

London 11:28 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Bank of NY: Latest falls in the price of gold have fully reversed the gains derived from Fed President Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony
Bank of New York from London:

Avoidance of risk appeared to become the financial markets’ principal objective in the initial stages of the latest troubles blighting the Middle East; but, now, in view of Israel’s tentative agreement to the presence of a European peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, the scope for further episodes of uncertainty emerging from this sphere would appear to have diminished commensurably. Then again, it is far from clear whether financial trends this past fortnight or so can be depicted as ‘risk avoidance’, and indeed, it could be said that the market has displayed similar detachment to that seen during previous episodes of geo-political tension. However, such talk is now largely academic and it now seems clear that the market has moved on. Indeed, the latest point of focus would appear to be one that has become all too familiar this past few years: China - but more specifically, the implications of Friday’s decision by the Peoples’ Bank to raise banks’ reserve requirements by 0.5% (to 8.5%).

The performance of the price of gold is revealing in this respect. We arrived at our desks this morning to find the price of gold trading at around USD 612 per ounce having reached USD 636 in the immediate aftermath of the PBOC’s reserve requirement decision. However, it seems clear that a rapid reappraisal ensued – undoubtedly taking in the possible implications for global commodity markets of a slowdown in the very engine of growth that has propelled their prices to stratospheric highs over the past twelve months. Indeed, perhaps the significance attached to this event is highlighted by the fact that it has outweighed the market’s ostensible preoccupation with US monetary policy. After all, the latest falls in the price of gold have fully reversed the gains derived from Fed President Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony (part 1) on Wednesday (which were perceived as dovish by the majority of market participants).

With China adopting an iterative strategy in its approach to change, it is clear that investors can ill afford to drop their guard. And as we have noted in recent Morning Briefings, in view of the regularity of comments pertaining to enhanced currency flexibility that have emanated from the lips of officials of late, we would be hardly surprised to see further policy moves transpire in the weeks ahead.

USA Zeus 11:00 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Still trailing gold to protect core shorts from 720's. GL

Mumbai NS 10:41 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
ok FM tks for ur thots

Lahore FM 10:35 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
it would really depend the fashion in which gold rises from these lows in 615 area which would throw light if 640-650 a sell or a buy.will have to keep watch.will talk on it then.

Mumbai NS 09:24 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Tks FM getting a feeling that we may rise to 630-640 areas but it looks to me as a gud sell there what u say.

gl gt

Lahore FM 09:00 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
ns 611-612 is the area to buy with stops at 605 for fresh attempt at upside.targets 622-630.

madrid mm 06:32 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
$100 Oil Sure Bet, Rogers Says; Forget About It, Merrill Demurs

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, the co-founder of George Soros's Quantum hedge fund, says oil prices will reach $100 a barrel, possibly this year. Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Francisco Blanch says no way.

``Unless somebody discovers something very quickly and very accessibly, we're all going to be dumbfounded at how high the price of oil will go, including me,'' Rogers said in an interview in Singapore.

Fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah forces, backed by Syria and Iran, helped send New York crude oil for August delivery to a record $78.40 on July 14 on concern the violence may spread through the Middle East, the region that produces more than 30 percent of the world's crude.

Not to worry, says Blanch, the head of commodities research at Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage. Oil supplies would have to stop from a country such as Iran, the second-largest Middle East oil producer, to drive the market higher, he said.

``It's unlikely we will see another price rally from here, unless the current conflict expands beyond its current borders,'' Blanch said in a July 17 interview in London. ``You'd need physical disruptions, and large ones, to bring the price to $100. You'd probably need to lose Iran.''

A growing number of Wall Street traders are siding with Rogers. Bets on futures contracts for $100 oil tripled in the past three months, helped by demand for fuel from China, the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Syd 06:24 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
KEY EURO-ZONE DATA: German Inflation Seen Edging Lower

Inflation updates next week will provide new clues on interest-rate hikes in the euro zone, as will the release of Germany's closely watched Ifo business survey on Wednesday.

Preliminary consumer price data for this month will be released from Germany and Italy throughout the week, and both sets are expected to show annual inflation edging lower.

The European Central Bank is unlikely to be discouraged from a widely tipped 25-basis-point hike in interest rates August 3, however, which would bring the key rate to 3%. But policymakers will have less cause to raise borrowing costs much higher if inflation turns back towards the ECB's 2% targeted threshold later this year.

In Europe's largest economy, inflation should slip to 1.9% from 2.0%, economists say, as the cost of hotel accommodation falls from its peak during last month's World Cup tournament. In both Germany and Italy, summer sales will have driven down clothes prices.

Midweek, Spain's statistics institute will most likely confirm June inflation at 4.0%, the highest rate in the euro area.

France reports Friday on cost pressures on its manufacturers, whose margins are suffering slightly less than those of their German counterparts. German producer price inflation is hovering around levels not seen since the 1980s, reaching 6.1% in June. This compares with an expected 3.9% in France. Perhaps the biggest news midweek will be feedback from Germany's corporations on conditions for business. A gloomier outlook among business leaders before its economic recovery has gained real traction, could also give the ECB pause for thought.

Economists say the Ifo Institute's July survey will probably reveal executive concern about rising oil prices, which have shot up around 13% in the past month.

Citigroup adds that the impending hike in Germany's value-added tax, to 19% in 2007 from 16%, will start to weigh on business sentiment.

"As a reaction to the grand coalition's health reform proposal, the political environment probably will drag on sentiment as well," Citigroup added in a research note Friday.

This would compound the findings of the latest peer survey from ZEW, which this week found business analysts in a state of rising despair over the prospects for German business over the next six months. The ZEW's sentiment indicator has been heading down consistently for the past six months, and plummeted in June to 15.1 from 37.8. Economists expect a milder response from participants in the corporate sector, taking the Ifo indicator to 106 from 106.8.

Investors will still be digesting business sentiment surveys from the euro zone's other large economies. Economists expect little change in results from France and Italy Tuesday, but see a sharp deterioration in Belgium's bellwether indicator Monday, from 10.1 to 6.7

Syd 05:27 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Slowdown in production of infrastructure goods is likely to have negative impact on overall industrial production, as these are either basic or intermediate goods widely used in production processes, says Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda; India's key infrastructure industries, which account for 27% of weightage of Index of Industrial Production, grew by 5.1% in May this year vs 8.1% year-ago vs 6.7% in April 2006

Syd 05:27 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Slowdown in production of infrastructure goods is likely to have negative impact on overall industrial production, as these are either basic or intermediate goods widely used in production processes, says Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda; India's key infrastructure industries, which account for 27% of weightage of Index of Industrial Production, grew by 5.1% in May this year vs 8.1% year-ago vs 6.7% in April 2006

sanfrancisco analyst 04:45 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
If Usd Index blows through to 88 I get nervous about a solid retracement down that catches longs.

sanfrancisco analyst 03:04 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
USD Index pattern should mature now to begin this week. 85hold? 87hold? Early spot activity says 85holds.

Syd 01:07 GMT July 24, 2006 Reply   
Nikkei falls more than 200 points as tech shares lose ground after some poor earnings results, guidance by U.S. tech firms; but traders say market unlikely to face another heavy selloff as seen earlier in month; now off 1.4% at 14610.65. Selling also continues in metal stocks, real estate firms which recently enjoyed strong rebound. Along with news from U.S. tech companies, "uncertainties about upcoming (Japanese) corporate earnings reports and overseas events like the Middle East conflict are capping the market, but there is no technical sign suggesting a continuous drop," says Nikko Cordial Securities product manager Hiroichi Nishi