Forex Futures Forum Archive for 07/27/2006

Tonbridge AL 23:36 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Sept Nat Gas closed 7.123 100dma 7.244
(the august went out above its 100dma for the first time since the breakdown last January)
Note:Huge open interest in the 8.000 calls.
Jan 2007 contract trades 10.868 which was the breakdown of the Jan 2006 contract !

Hong Kong Qindex 23:35 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Gold-Aug (Comex) : The current expected lower trading range is 612.3 - 619.7 - 627.0 and the upper trading range is 641.8 - 649.1 - 656.5. (The neutral zone is 627.0 - 634.4 - 641.8). The daily directional indicator is (615.8) - 628.3* - 634.4. The market is under pressure if it is trading below (615.8). The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - (555.2) - 579.5* - 590.6 - (615.8) - 619.6 - 628.3* - 634.4 - 639.2* - 648.6 - (676.4) - 677.1*. A projected supporting barrier is located at 613.8 . A Projected resistant barriers are expected at 629.3 & 644.8 ( qindex.com ). 

Tonbridge AL 23:31 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
sydney gvm 21:52 GMT July 27
EDM looks to me to be 94.70-94.52 rock and roll

Hong Kong Qindex 23:20 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Crude Oil (September) : The current expected lower trading range is 72.43 - 73.14 - 73.86 and the upper trading range is 75.29 - 76.01 - 76.72. (The neutral zone is 73.86 - 74.57 - 75.29). The daily directional indicator is 75.29 - (75.64) - 75.82*. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 75.29. The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - (67.93) - 70.56* - 72.63 - 74.78 - 75.29 - (75.64) - 75.82* - 76.15* - 76.65 - 81.07* - (83.34). A projected supporting barrier is located at 71.20 . A Projected resistant level is expected at 76.20 


General Comments : Projected Support at 71.20
As shown in my weekly charts ( qindex.com )the market is under pressure when it is trading below 75.64. My monthly cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to vibrate around [72.45]* with an expected magnitude of 69.64 - 75.26 for the time being. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 71.20 - 73.70 - 76.20.

houston st 23:12 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

GVM -- sadly I don't trade that one at all...perhaps AL or one of our other qualified chartists will post their thoughts/outlook...good luck w/ the trade...gl/gt.

sydney gvm 21:52 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
houston st - thks for the info - what do you think on the ED? I shorted EDM7 @ 94.66 today - think we might see some selling into August meeting

houston st 17:28 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

just fyi, seeing a couple of levels of offers in the 1k+ range on sept06 euro futures, which is unusual for this time of day...currently 1,872 & 1,205 contracts offered...gl/gt.

Vienna GD 17:17 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
According to my news services crude oil production in Nigeria has been slashed by some 25% a source close to the oil sector said. Result of militant attacks and a pipeline leak.

Vienna GD 17:06 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
$XAU and $HUI clearly underperforming the metals and the broads. Stinks a bit! Maybe because of SA stocks due to stronger rand pulling south?!
But not a selloff mode - but accumulation mode i think. But i could be wrong of course.
Anyway metals look good i think.
Took a bit of the table already - more tomorrow.

Vienna GD 16:45 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Stock market traders - will we see a stock market rally towards the close???

S&P at strong resistance ... but i think they will play the usual game ... choppy trading for some hours ... make the bears and bulls drunk and dull - then produce a false BO south (bears will jump on board) - then initiate a short cover rally north. Just guessing and babbling .... so DYOD!

Dublin Flip 16:44 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
thanks vm nh

Vienna GD 16:34 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 18:49 GMT July 26, 2006
BTW: Short DIA 111.34

Closed that possy today with 7 points loss. Should have closed it yesterday night with 40 pts profit. Always the same story ... the overnight tricks of da bangsters!
The error: didn'st stick to my rule: prefer the bird in the hand rather than two in the bush - also ignored the sentiment towards month end, which is usually positive and also ignored the reversals of bradley and full moon ... conclusio: the trade was ok - but the closing action was definitely wrong: way too much greed.

Livingston nh 16:33 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Flip - you mentioned the USD 1995 to 2000 on GVI

Consider - next month markes the 35th anniversary of FOREX as we know it -- divide the period into 12 year pieces //- 1971 to 1983 was the Great Adjustment -- US had high inflation, many recessions and USD declined against nearly everything // 1983 to 1995 -- The Great Rebuilding - the US moved from an industrial economy to a post industrial (technology, service) economy and the growth of a military dominance - the USD actually had to be restrained but in general the USD rose and fell with a business cycle pattern // 1995 to present -- GLOBALIZATION -- the two major events that marked the beginning of this period were the Chinese devaluation and the Mexican Peso crisis -- the common factor of the two was labor - manufacturing productivity and service productivity as imports and immigrants poured into the US - the introduction of the EUR , the weakness of the Japanese economy and the rigidity of the CNY are key factors for the USD as this period closes // Folks are going to have to adjust as the new period starts

RE: the USD 1995 to 2000 -- balanced budgets are restrictive/deflationary/contractionary -- think of the current account in terms of Money SUpply for the world - scarcity gives rise to higher price

Vienna GD 16:25 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
nt ... would you agree that, at least so far, tomorrow could be another nice day for the metals? Target 656 +/- some bucks eventually? Silver close(r) to 12?

The bradley turning point and/or new moon reversal 7/24 so far worked extremely nicely and we are going towards end of months with a considerable hurted buck.
Also imho unlikely that tomorrows GDP causes a dollar rally. Also (the usual wrong) rumor there of a china reval.
So that positive sentiment "all is well" in most markets could continue for some further days i think. Do you see reasons against that view?

GVI john 15:35 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
FROM HOUSTON ST

Post-stats nat gas has spiked up into the monthly pivot high zone and is currently pausing...next resistance the monthly dynamic range resistance of $7.461...beyond that is uncharted territory for the moment...support now at the monthly pivot high, followed by AL's 100dma, and 3-month BP...nice move up this week, and the past two weeks of stats have put us back into a two-way mkt, imho...gl/gt

CHART

houston st 14:34 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

nat gas -7/bcf draw....bullish.

Vienna GD 14:30 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
I mentioned NG yesterday or the day before yesterday ... today again ... just a few cents below all time highs and BO pending ... company with great reserves and ABX is trying to buy that company ... bidding war possible/likely.

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
http://www.chartbook.com/charts/?symbol=CL&contract_month=U&contract_year=2006&action=openChart&market=futures&contract_type=9999D

Free charting tool for all friends.commodities indexes,currencies.

Tonbridge AL 13:29 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Germ 30 yr Buxl > 96.00 and the auction boys have profits.
5 yr Bobls > 109.85 may find stops if so that means Bunds > 116.70 and Bonds will press the envelope at 108.04
Gilts > 109.69 tgt 110.09 if i remember rightly which is 100dma
If the Housing stats are worse than expected would not be surprised to see these levels cut like butter.
Bond tgts above 108.14 108.31 109.06
and all in the face of a 5 yr auction. Nothing like getting ma&pa to buy the highs later this am

houston st 12:08 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

from earlier today, probably worth a repeat...gl/gt.

stats out @ 14:30 GMT...the link.

houston st 02:51 GMT July 27, 2006

sep06 nat gas got its second wind today, breaking out & plowing through AL's 100dma before hitting the monthly pivot high resistance...currently trading just below the 100dma...tomorrow should be interesting as the aug06 full contract terminates, and stats may prove interesting thanks to last week's low build...expectations are for builds in the range of +10 to +49/bcf...this past week's record heat may have goosed generation demand, so a low build (or a surprise drawdown) could send us much higher...resistance @ $7.150, $7.270 & $7.460...I'll send JOHN an updated chart to post before the NY open...

crude had a nice push up post-stats (the mogas draw was much higher then expected, as was noted here earlier), before moving back below $74.00 on a report that Hezbollah was demanding an immediate cease fire...crude seemed to lose its punch after that...should the hostilities continue into the weekend I'd expect to see another attempt into the upper part of this week's range again ($75.40-$75.80)...$73.50 should still support the downside for now...most of us have grown accustomed to the current clash in the ME, but keep in mind we're only a headline away from new record highs...back in NY w/ charts...gl/gt.

GVI john 12:02 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Derivatives auction sees a gain of +3 bcf in natural gas inventories later.

GVI john 11:55 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Charts from Houston ST

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Syd 11:39 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Iran Won't Cut Oil Exports If Syria Attacked - Oil Min
Iran has no intention of halting crude oil exports due to the current crisis in the Middle East, its oil minister said Thursday.

Speaking to reporters, Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, said his country won't use oil as a weapon because of the current situation between Lebanon and Israel.

He also said the Islamic republic wouldn't cut crude exports in reaction to a possible attack by Israel on Syria.

"No, why should we directly link political issues to oil exports. We don't establish such links, political issues should be resolved politically," Vaziri said

Vienna GD 11:22 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Just bot 100 silver kg bars for €283.75 each - st/mt investment

Earlier in the morning bot 5000 50-ATS coins ... equals to appr. 64 kg ... longterm (> 1 y) and therefore taxfree core investment.

According to my moon calendar today and tomorrow are preferred days for financial transactions/investments. DYOD!

hk revdax 10:52 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Moscow mag 10:44//your rate of return is too low! here in China, some questionable characters are setting up companies named e-gold. the clients are invited to 'invest' into this e-gold fund. by the end of the first 3 months, you can through drawing a payment each week, recover your capital. on top of that you can still take out the same amount for many years. the whole scheme is like a MLM(multi-level marketing). the late comers are the suckers.

Moscow mag 10:44 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
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Syd 09:45 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
The Federal Reserve's inflation concerns have not been eased by the Beige Book, argues Commerzbank. Since the bond markets regard an end of US monetary tightening as likely - even one more hike to 5.5% on August 8 is being called into question - the bank sees a "high risk of disappointment" on this count in the days and weeks ahead. September bund +0.35 at 116.55, September gilt +0.26 a 109.59.

London 07:56 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Oil, an important top (or nearly).....
FXA
In crude oil futures, have been warning for months of a test and even break of the April high at $75.35 but that further gains may be limited and part of a larger topping. And in the July 14th email, warned that day’s spike past the rising resistance line since Aug may be a bearish “false break”. The market turned lower later that day, closing below that resistance and tumbling all the way to $71.65 over the following few days (see daily chart below). The market may have completed (or nearly) the rally from at least the Nov low at $55.72 (wave 5, see numbering on daily chart below) with at least another few months of correcting lower toward $69.70/95 (38% from the $55.72 low) and even below after. Support before there is at the bullish trendline since Feb (currently at $71.85/10) with a break potentially triggering a downside acceleration. Took profits on the late June rebuy at $71.00 on the recent break of the bullish trendline from June (then at $75.00, closed at $73.54). Would now short here (currently at $74.55) but use an aggressive stop on a close past the 2 week bearish trendline (currently at $75.45/60) as there remains risk for more topping and even further slight new highs first (see below).

In the bigger picture, a factor in my view that further new highs past the April $75.35 high would be limited, was gasoline futures. The clear 5 wave fall from the Sept 2005 high at $2.4650 (see gas/2nd chart below) continues to argue that the downside is “not complete” with eventual declines back to the Feb $1.3675 low and possibly below after. Remember however, that the market can go as high as $2.4650 in this scenario (100% retracement). Also of note are seasonal charts for crude oil which point higher through October. So even though I am bearish (see above), there is still scope for more topping and therefore the reason for using the aggressive stop on the short. Clearly don’t want to be buying but it may take a few attempts on the short side before catching the big decline.

Vienna GD 07:04 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Tuesday July 25, 3:31 am ET
By ETFzone Staff

Plenty of ETFs target specific commodities or groups of commodities, but which one best represents the "total market" of commodities? The newly-launched iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (AMEX:GSC - News) could make a good claim.

GSC represents all the major commodities world-wide, including these categories:
Energy: crude oils, refined gasoline and natural gas
Industrial Metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, zinc
Precious Metals: gold, silver
Agriculture: wheat, corn, soybean, cotton, sugar, coffee, cocoa
Livestock: cattle and hogs

Clearly this casts a wide and reasonably comprehensive net; but how to weight them so as to reflect their representative economic influence?

Commodities are ephemeral investment creatures. They are not represented on markets as entities, so market capitalization has no meaning as it does with stocks and bonds. By design, they are mined or grown for speedy
distribution across the globe and then used up. So Goldman Sachs, which runs the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, chose a different, and quite logical, weighting method: worldwide annual value of production. This metric is easy to calculate, since each industry keeps track of how much
it brings to market. Additionally, it exposes investors to the actual commodities themselves close to the time of creation, before speculators and even market manipulators get heavily involved.

There are spot markets for many commodities, but the most cost-effective way to invest long-term is through futures contracts. Commodities are traded by futures contracts, which scare some investors because they are derivatives.

However, in their unleveraged form, commodities futures are a
straightforward method of approximating an equity investment, and by no means speculative. They simply move the date of ownership into the future.

Since futures contracts come due ever month or so, an investor must constantly sell futures contracts coming due and "roll over" the proceeds to the next futures contract. GSCI uses this method with a smoothing technique that sells and rebuys over multiple days so as to avoid unusual single events and predatory arbitrage.

Perhaps the closest thing to GSC is the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity (AMEX:DBC - News) based on rolling futures for crude oil, heating oil, gold, aluminum, corn and wheat. These are a useful mix of energy, metals and grains but not quite so comprehensive.

GSC's commodity weightings are as follows:
Commodity Weighting (%)
Crude Oil 31.63
Brent Crude Oil 14.95
Unleaded Gas 8.79
Heating Oil 8.16
Gas Oil 4.50
Natural Gas 6.46
Aluminum 2.91
Copper 4.02
Lead 0.24
Nickel 0.98
Zinc 1.03
Gold 1.94
Silver 0.23
Wheat 2.37
Red Wheat 1.01
Corn 2.10
Soybeans 1.35
Cotton 0.82
Sugar 1.65
Coffee 0.55
Cocoa 0.17
Live Cattle 2.23
Feeder Cattle 0.64
Lean Hogs 1.25

With news so fixated on oil and gold prices, it is easy to forget that other commodities are also important. In fact, gold is a relatively puny player economically, less important than live cattle, for instance. For the passive investor, this added diversification has real benefit.

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Comment form GD:
1) I never trust that Goldman Sachs folks - they are the worst of all the bangsters.
2) Summary for weightening is appr. 72% oil and gas related products - so pretty much oil and gas related.
3) I miss lumber or orange juice f.e.
4) Some traders think/witnessed that new ETFs are often released prior to declines in the related underlying stuff.
So conclusio - is oil and gas determined to go lower in the not so distant future??? One of my astrologers predict a several years lasting bear market for oil after Q3?!
I continue to stick to my yellow stuff - debtzilla (debt monster) related.

RSA Abe 05:57 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Zeus and Vienna, my thanks for the time and effort you both took to answer my questions, much appreciated, gave me a lot of food for thought ! It would appear that a combination of physical and spot gold might be my best option, with the bulk of my capital in physical and small possies in spot trading. I like the idea of quick profits (hopefully not quick losses !) with spot, but, like Vienna, I also prefer to have it "under my pillow", so to speak. Again, my thanks to you both !

*Lahore, in process of changing.

GT`s

Syd 05:53 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
FOCUS: Sagging German Sentiment Weighs On Euro Zone Signs of waning business and consumer confidence are raising questions about the euro-zone economy and how far the European Central Bank will continue its interest-rate tightening policy.

Fresh evidence of changing sentiment came Wednesday when Germany's Ifo Research Institute reported business confidence fell further than expected this month.

The closely-watched indicator fell to 105.6 in July from 106.8 in June. Consensus was for a July rate of 106.00.

Klaus Abberger, the head of business surveys at the Ifo, said the fall resulted from a combination of high oil prices, the European Central Bank's interest-rate tightening policy, prospects for slower growth in the U.S. and the looming hike in Germany's value-added tax rate next year.

"This results in uncertainty," Abberger said.

Likely to come under close scrutiny in the next few days are Germany's GfK consumer-sentiment data, due on Thursday, and EMU business and consumer assessments, set for Friday.

"Increasing signs of a moderation in global growth, together with the recent hike in the oil price weigh substantially on the economic growth outlook," Alexander Koch at Munich based HVB said.

In Germany, economists expect an extra drag on consumption from next year's scheduled VAT hike to 19% from 16%.

And oil prices show no signs of significant retracement, leading to fears of ever-rising energy costs.

"From my point of view a deeper impact of oil prices on consumer demand is not far away," Stefan Bielmeier at Deutsche Bank added.

German think-tank HWWA said economic growth would be less than forecast if oil prices stay above $75 a barrel. It sees German GDP growth at 1.6% for 2006. This is all the more true if higher energy prices lead to an overall rise in prices and as a result central banks raise interest rates more than expected, HWWA said.

ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet noted at his last press conference in early July that the bank's monetary policy "is entirely designed to avoid second-round effects" from strong oil prices on inflation.

The prevailing view among ECB watchers is for at least two more rate hikes by year end, lifting the euro zone's key lending rate to 3.25%. This will hit consumer spending even harder, economists fear.

But economists expecting a third ECB hike this year might revise their forecast if negative sentiment deepens.

"We need to see the next euro-zone business surveys and the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing and the service sector," said Richard Reid at Citigroup in London, adding that he expects the key lending rate to peak after two more rate hikes.

Early evidence for a significant slowdown is mixed. Consumer spending in France and Italy remains high, possibly due to the World Cup soccer effect. French business confidence remained firm this month, but sentiment has fallen in Germany, Spain, Italy, Denmark and Belgium, according to recent data.

Still, economists note that this mixed bag contrasts with overwhelmingly positive sentiment earlier this year and that the price of energy is unlikely to ease over the short term.

Energy analysts expect the average price of Europe's benchmark Brent blend crude oil to be $66.8 a barrel in 2006, according to a Dow Jones survey released in mid-July which raised the forecast for the fourth month in a row.

"Oil markets are heading in just one direction - upwards," said Andy Sommer, an oil expert at HSH Nordbank, citing a combination of geopolitical tensions and the upcoming hurricane season in the U.S.

"Higher energy and borrowing costs are having their effect," said Keith Lewis, a spokesman for the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a U.K. car industry trade association. U.K. car sales have fallen in each of the past three years and are forecast to total 2.35 million in 2006, down from a record 2.6 million in 2003.

The German chemical industry association, VCI, calculates that oil prices will contribute to increased costs in the German chemical sector of EUR1.5 billion this year, assuming an average of $65 a barrel for Brent, a little below where most energy analysts see it.

Dresdner Bank/Allianz economist Harald Joerg sees the main impact of high oil prices on the European economy biting next year, noting a similar lag following previous oil price spikes.

"The most pronounced reaction in economic growth to changes in oil prices can be detected with a time lag of 1-1/4 and two years", he wrote.

USA Zeus 04:49 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Lifted hedge on gold from 603.50 @ 628.50. Pocket that now stay core short from 720's. Decision made to take profits. Could go up or down from here no time to keep on it like I want so locked it in. GL

sanfrancisco analyst 03:46 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
US Dollar Index continues its smooth pattern build. Larger declining trend from 92+ coming in at 87ish. Rising channel from 82ish. Sweet spots are 87 and 84 with most recent action a rejection of 87 sending it toward 84. Clearing up the picture.

hong kong nt 03:43 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Gold -- 618.8 maybe a buy for today..

houston st 02:51 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

sep06 nat gas got its second wind today, breaking out & plowing through AL's 100dma before hitting the monthly pivot high resistance...currently trading just below the 100dma...tomorrow should be interesting as the aug06 full contract terminates, and stats may prove interesting thanks to last week's low build...expectations are for builds in the range of +10 to +49/bcf...this past week's record heat may have goosed generation demand, so a low build (or a surprise drawdown) could send us much higher...resistance @ $7.150, $7.270 & $7.460...I'll send JOHN an updated chart to post before the NY open...

crude had a nice push up post-stats (the mogas draw was much higher then expected, as was noted here earlier), before moving back below $74.00 on a report that Hezbollah was demanding an immediate cease fire...crude seemed to lose its punch after that...should the hostilities continue into the weekend I'd expect to see another attempt into the upper part of this week's range again ($75.40-$75.80)...$73.50 should still support the downside for now...most of us have grown accustomed to the current clash in the ME, but keep in mind we're only a headline away from new record highs...back in NY w/ charts...gl/gt.

hong kong nt 02:49 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 18:49 GMT July 26, 2006

as liquidity is flooding, buying gold on dips looks more safer than pick a top on Dow and sell (unless Dow may stabilise below 10600)..

hong kong nt 02:34 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
GD -- gold 602 medium term bottom, kiss 676 again very soon and climb higher, about Dow, tech resistance 11234, again weak dollar, strong dow..

Syd 00:50 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   

This chap sounds like a broken record......PIMCO MD William Gross, one of bond market's noted bullish forecasters, believes U.S. Treasurys yields have reached peak as "the tightening cycle in the U.S. seems to have run its course, primarily because of its effect on housing and related repercussions on consumer spending and economic activity." Sets stage for major decline in short-dated rates: "on average, short rates have fallen by over 400 basis points once a peak in housing prices has been established." Worth noting, though, Gross has spent past year consistently arguing Fed would halt hikes; last August, tipped fed funds rate to peak at 3.75%-4.00%.

UK Alex 00:12 GMT July 27, 2006 Reply   
WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Two influential senators said on Wednesday they would demand a vote on legislation for steep U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing significantly raises the value of its currency by the end of September.

Sens. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, told reporters they delivered that message to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in a meeting on Wednesday.


"We gave him a clear message that we have been very disappointed in the lack of progress China has made ... and if we didn't see progress between now and September 30 we would move on our legislation," Schumer said.

The senators declined to comment on what Paulson told them during the meeting including whether he would be traveling to Beijing any time soon to press Chinese leaders to revalue the yuan.

Many U.S. lawmakers and manufacturers believe the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent, giving Chinese exporters an unfair trading advantage.

China revalued its currency a little more than a year ago by 2.1 percent. But the yuan has risen only slightly in value since then, leading to growing frustration among lawmakers over the ballooning U.S. trade deficit with China.

The Schumer-Graham bill threatens China with a 27.5 percent tariff on its exports to the Untied States if the value of the yuan has not significantly increased within six months of the bill becoming law.

Graham told reporters that support for the bill has grown since April 2005 when 67 senators voted against a motion to kill it.

"We've got 67 votes in our pocket. We would prefer not to have a vote but the Chinese government needs to understand if a vote is taken in September it will not be to their liking," Graham said.

"We cannot allow someone as large as China to basically manipulate their currency and cheat the international marketplace," he said.

For the Shumer-Graham bill to become law, both the Senate and the House of Representatives would have to approve it and President George W. Bush would have to sign it.