Forex Futures Forum Archive for 07/28/2006

Syd 22:56 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
Bearish (and potentially very bearish) outlook in crude oil from earlier in the week continues to play out. The 5 wave fall from the July 13th high at $78.40 continues to argue that the downside is not complete with declines back to the July 19th low at $71.65 and even below after. Note too that longer term support at the base of the nearly year long rising wedge/bullish trendline since Feb is currently just above the $71.65 area with a close below potentially triggering a downside acceleration. Stay short but note that the inability to accelerate lower over the next few days would start argue another week or so of wide chopping first.

houston st 19:58 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   

AL 19:06 GMT -- unwinding of some CL/NG spreads or reversing would also be my guess...the past two nat gas inventory releases have caught a few leaning the wrong way, and the prospect for more of the same has added a new dynamic to the mkt for now, imho...a few tropical depressions would add some spice to the mkt...bought crude on today's support...will reevaluate again next week...good trades.

Vienna GD 19:41 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
Tonbridge AL 18:57 ... the same story, although in maybe other wordings, was told when gold went over 400 and over 500 and over 600 ... you know how that story ended.
The risc to miss the train is considerable higher than to be ahead of it. Imho that didn't change yet - quite to the opposite. The dollar is DONE, the fed is DONE, whether they want it or not, and china will rather sooner than later start exporting inflation all over the world. Not to talk of higher energy due to several reasons here.

AL ... and IF it goes lower ... serpentine ... and a metals dealer ALWAYS has plenty of cash though he can buy the lows. And to tell you the truth - i'm still underinvested. Still waiting for good buying levels. Got fooled below 600 - bought, but didn't get enough of that stuff - cause my previous metals dealer (a bank) did a miserable job.
So keepin fingers crossed that you are right!

Tonbridge AL 19:06 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
st it appears to be a long NG short CL trade

Tonbridge AL 18:57 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
GD re Gold: so people going long on a negative carry. there is nothing wrong with carrying a % of portfolio in all natural resources but just remember right now everyone super bullish and getting long. Most are buying with the view that they want to make a profit. They need someone to sell it to and if they are all long.......Gold has decoupled from its usual correlations and silver even more so. Suggest you look at GC/EUR and maybe the shrill may not be so loud. I have suggested before what is bought is to be sold.

houston st 17:19 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   

some profit taking in energy today, although the weekend risk aversion may limit downside...crude seems to be holding her @ $73 for the moment...nat gas is off the lows for now, and still above $7.000...front-month products terminate Monday, fyi...good weekend to all.

Vienna GD 15:19 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
"Silver Maple Leaf coin sales right now have gone through the roof. They are just flying out faster than we can make them, which is a good thing," he said.

The Mint has the capacity to refine about six million ounces of gold annually and it recently began refining silver as well. Most of the refined metal is used to produce coins -- regular currency and specialty products -- as well as gold and silver bars and wafers.

Now guess why! LINK

Yesterday also talked to my metals dealer in austria and he repeated ... at least 9:1 buyers:sellers ... almost no selling.
Again ... guess why!

sanfrancisco analyst 14:51 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
US Dollar Index 85 has held assault again by mid friday session. Pivitol day Monday if the ascending channel is to survive. A failure opens up the flood gates, a sustainment leads to good Usd bids.

Syd 14:46 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed that core prices _ excluding food and energy _ jumped by 2.9 percent in the second quarter _ far outside the Fed's comfort zone. That was up from a 2.1 percent increase in the first quarter and marked the highest inflation reading since the third quarter of 1994, when core inflation rose by 3.2 percent.

The inflation reading was taken before the latest run-up in energy prices. Oil prices hit a record closing high of $77.03 a barrel on July 14. Gasoline prices also have marched higher, topping $3 a gallon in many areas.

In a separate report from the Labor Department, employers' costs to hire and retain workers picked up in the second quarter, a development that also could raise some inflation concerns.

Compensation costs _ including wages and benefits _ rose by 0.9 percent in the April-to-June period, up from a 0.6 percent increase in the first quarter. Economists were calling for a 0.8 percent rise.

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he is concerned about rising inflation, he told Congress last week that the Fed believes moderating economic activity will eventually lessen inflation pressures.

That assessment raised hopes on Wall Street that the Fed might take a breather in its two-year-old rate-raising campaign at its next meeting, on Aug. 8. Some economists, however, continue to predict that rates will be bumped up again at the August meeting to ward off inflation; after that, they think the Fed may move to the sidelines.

The report comes as President Bush is getting low marks from the public for his handling of the economy, according to a recent AP-Ipsos poll.

With energy prices and borrowing costs rising, consumers turned cautious in the second quarter. They boosted their spending at just a 2.5 percent pace, down from a 4.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter. Much of the weakness was in consumers' appetite for big- ticket goods, such as cars and appliances.

Businesses also tightened the belt.

Spending on home building was cut by 6.3 percent in the second quarter, the deepest dip in nearly six years _ since the third quarter of 2000. Rising mortgage rates are clipping demand.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/28/D8J50IGO0.html

Vienna GD 13:55 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
The stock market is sick, sick, sick ... OMO high almost all days, today the highest this week ... window dressing ahead of month end ... provides nice numbers for da friends and big boyz ... LINK

Strong stock market happens most the time close to month end - and similar at the beginning of the next month.

madrid mm 10:22 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
fwiw
I have a Box option ---- GBP/US$
from next monday 31/7 till next friday 4/8
Box Option to be hit
price - 1.8490 to 1.8500
if the prices are hit during this period i make money

Syd 09:05 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
Talk in China Securities Journal that the CNY's trading band should be widened may be encouraging speculation of a announcement as early as this weekend. However, as RBC Capital Markets suggests, such a move would be implausible. "Bearing in mind that the CNY has so far used only a tiny fraction of the existing fluctuation band (plus or minus 0.3% daily against the USD), it seems unlikely this signals an imminent policy shift," the bank said

UK Alex 08:11 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--A view is emerging in Japan's political circles and financial markets that the Bank of Japan's nine-member policy board consists solely of monetary policy hawks who advocate interest rate hikes more readily to tight inflation.

Those who support this view point to the fact that the board on July 14 voted unanimously to end the zero interest rate policy, the first time the board has decided to tighten credit by a unanimous vote since the new Bank of Japan Law took effect in 1998.

When it abandoned the zero rate policy in August 2000, two members opposed the move; when it lifted its quantitative easing policy in March 2006, one member did so.

"The end of the zero rate policy will likely end in failure at a time when the Japanese economy faces a number of risks, including a possible slowdown of the U.S. economy," Kozo Yamamoto, head of a Liberal Democratic Party subcommittee on monetary policy, told senior BOJ officials on July 26. "It does not make any sense that the policy change was approved by a unanimous vote."

One BOJ watcher said he was surprised that Tadao Noda, the newest member of the policy board, opposed a proposal to raise the base rate on the "Lombard-type" lending facility, or the official discount rate, to 0.4%, calling for a hike to the 0.5% level instead.

Noda became a board member in June, replacing Shin Nakahara, who opposed the end of quantitative easing and was regarded as the most dovish member of the policy-setting board. A native of Yamaguchi Prefecture, the electoral district of Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, he was widely regarded as holding similar views as the top government spokesman, who remains cautious on interest rate hikes.

But given the episode described above, Noda "is most likely a hawk" on interest rate hikes, the observer said, concluding that, "Nakahara's retirement has left the BOJ policy board without any clear-cut doves."

However, it is premature to jump to the conclusion that without Nakahara, the policy board will raise short-term rates again sooner than it otherwise would have. BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said that the central bank will not hike interest rates in upcoming policy board meetings, and this stance is shared by many other members.

There will unlikely be another majority approval of a further rate hike this year by the policy board because of lingering concern that the U.S. economy might slow down significantly, a BOJ official said.

However, the policy board's sentiment could quickly change if by autumn there is a growing view that the U.S. economy will likely achieve a soft landing, namely, slow down to a more sustainable growth rate that would not build up too much inflationary pressure.

The Japanese economy faces no risk factors other than the growing need for inventory adjustments in the IT sector. If its growth does not slow down in a way described in the BOJ's April report on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the hawkish bias of the policy board will likely come to the fore.

The government is expected to delay hiking the 5% consumption tax until fiscal 2008 or later. Similarly, it will likely postpone any significant reductions in its policy-related spending so as not to antagonize voters ahead of next summer's upper house election.

Under these circumstances, it is possible -- even probable -- that the BOJ's policy board, which is becoming increasingly hawkish on interest rates, will come to believe that monetary policy is the only option to prevent the economy from overheating.

Moreover, if the government is not likely to reduce its expenditures significantly anytime soon, the BOJ will be more willing to hike interest rates again. For this reason, it would be foolhardy to rule out another rate increase later this year.

KL KL 07:25 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
This is a tough market to make $$$$....crude, gold, USD, index, middle east crisis is just throwing too many dynamics to trading...on one hand the rates incresing fear and on the other the slowdown fear....and by observing price action lots of stop loss is placed in a position where sharks is just having a meal.....still ninja trading is best at the moment....anything can collapse or rocket depends on news feed.....note rocket...LOL signs of times...LOL

madrid mm 07:16 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
I have this platform offering this "Hit" or "Miss" box option for FX.

now i would like to know if some of you have this option.
Also more important, does anyone use FX option.?
I am aking this because , as i play small amount, i would like to know more on how to trade FX options. Any suggestions, ie web pages please ?

madrid mm 07:11 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
All in GMT - 28/7/2006

Date Country Event Previous Consensus
08:00 European Monetary Union M3 Money Supply (QoQ) 8.90 % 8.70 %
08:00 European Monetary Union M3 Money Supply (YoY) 8.70 % 8.70 %
09:00 Switzerland ! KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 2.40 % 2.40 %
12:30 United States Employment Cost Index 0.60 % 0.80 %
12:30 United States Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 5.60 % 3.10 %
12:30 Canada Producer Price Index (MoM) 0.30 % 0.10 %
12:30 United States !! Personal Consumption 5.10 % 2.10 %
12:30 United States !!! Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3.10 % 3.00 %
13:50 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 83.00 p 83.00 p

! – Low volatility expected
!! – Moderate volatility expected
!!! – High volatility expected

Vienna GD 04:49 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
According to nt ...

hong kong nt 04:24 GMT July 28, 2006
expect more usd weakness and gold may range 625-655 in 2 trading days..

sanfrancisco analyst 03:32 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
US Dollar Index 85 held on first strike. All Usd majors under pressure in Asia session. Pivitol spot at UsdChf just below. If ascending USD Index channel will be broken to the downside it will be soon. If not the pattern continues for now.

Syd 02:11 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
HK-based market analyst Steve Saville thinks USD will move higher in coming months, possibly putting downward pressure on gold, creating some good buy opportunities. Saville says in report: We'd be buyers of gold below $600, be enthusiastic buyers at $540-$570; and we'd be mortgaging the final 40 acres and putting the proceeds into gold at $510. Last down $1.25 at $633.10

USA G-8 02:01 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
Albert ,Qindex.com,,,,,,, thanks for all those target posts !!!

Syd 01:41 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
Howard Says Australian Central Bank to Consider Fuel, Bananas
July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the central bank will consider soaring fuel prices and a temporary surge in the cost of bananas when deciding whether to increase interest rates next week.
The price increase ``will flow through and disappear'' as banana production resumes, Howard said.

Syd 01:09 GMT July 28, 2006 Reply   
There's a 50% chance Standard & Poor's Corp. (SDP.XX) will downgrade Taiwan's sovereign rating if the island doesn't resolve negative political factors by the end of this year, the Economic Daily News reported Friday, citing Ping Chew, sovereign credit analyst at S&P.

Chew said in an interview with the paper that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian faces pressure to step down.

"What concerns him the most is how to keep his position," Chew said. "He doesn't have the time to worry about the country's major economic policies."

Taiwan is currently rated AA- by S&P with a negative outlook.