Forex Futures Forum Archive for 08/1/2006

Tonbridge AL 23:35 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Silver ETF now has 91 million Ozs.
100 dma for September is 11.878. 40% retrace would be 12.349. still consider 11.40 pivotal

Vienna GD 22:10 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
madrid mm ... do you still need silver links???
Here are some more ...
http://www.silver-investor.com/
http://www.silverstrategies.com/
http://www.silverinstitute.org/investing/options.php
http://cmi-gold-silver.com/buy-silver-bullion-coins.html

Vienna GD 21:52 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 19:48 GMT July 31, 2006
$HUI and $XAU closing near intraday highs. I think the metals will go up rather than down in the not so distant future ...

If i take a look at the 8h charts ... i see an explosion coming with a rather strong leg up ...

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Today we saw that explosion ... most likely some big boyz & friends knew todays inflation numbers - and were accumulating the recent days - therefore the tight and calm trading ranges.

Weak dollar due to almost done fed ++ iran-situation again getting out of control ++ hurricane season just around the corner ++ the strongest season of gold just around the corner ... what else do you need for higher metals????

Above mentioned reasons by far outpace the argument for a coming slowdown and considerable lower metals. BTW: i don't see even a shadow of a the metals seriously hurting slowdown in china .... just wishful thinking imho!

I seriously consider to add more physical here, mostly due to not cooperating iran. Maybe for 1/3 of my remaining cash position. €50x is still dirt cheap - in relation to a target of say 1000€ f.e. - not?!

Night folks!

Vienna GD 21:17 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
VERY strong close of gold and silver stocks ... several stocks broke out of multi week trading range.
Gold and silver closing (more or less) at intraday highs.

If that isn't a trap and if there aren't metal negative news tomorrow - we will see a continuation of this trend - IMHO.

Didn't take any profits so far. Sticking to my positions as long as there is not a clear reason to sell.

sanfrancisco analyst 20:11 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Treas Sec Paulson states US economy is strong but in transition to slower growth.

sanfrancisco analyst 20:09 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Woops, comments should read opens August (with July the bad month).

sanfrancisco analyst 20:06 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
US Dollar Index closes August at 84.82 threatening the ascending channel. I wont consider it broken until 84.50 trades AND STICKS.

sanfrancisco analyst 20:05 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
August closes as the worst month for US stocks in fifteen years.

KL Skystar 19:26 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Is there a plateform for trading copper online ? tia. gl & gt.

Vienna GD 18:26 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
If this level of resistance, actually 11.7x ... clearly can be taken out ... we are off to the races for 11.9x and 12.5x in silver.
Didn't sell a single ounce yet. Trend is way too strong here. This was the type of explosion i mentioned in one of my last posts.

$HUI knocking on heavens door ... just simply ignoring the broads - VERY VERY RARE!!!
Also euro holding above 1.28 is VERY encouraging!

When to sell ... i even can't think of selling here.
But maybe i'm wrong - so DYOD!!!

Vienna GD 18:05 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Talked again with my metals dealer today ... also increased buying of non-investors ... manufacturers etc. Considerable more than the last couple of years.

Could it be that most of those inventories are almost out of gold ... because those folks (like myself) are/were waiting for lower gold? Yet there is no cheap gold anymore and they have to buy at higher prices now?

Anyway ... remarkable strength in the metals

KL KL 17:34 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
looking to sell gold just don't know where...big range 650-670...let see if it take out trend line...trend is friend sometimes with ninja

hong kong nt 16:45 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
VIENNA GD/LAHORE FM -- "forced" to reload half core at 645 with 630P protection..

london mamun 16:22 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
gold target 659

Vienna GD 16:10 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Anybody with targets for gold and silver now?

Gold 66x?
Silver ????

Vienna GD 15:53 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Seems gold and silver are both breaking resistance ... gold 643 actualy and silver 11.55. But too early to be sure about that BO.
Also $HUI actually at strong resistance.

Encouraging: the metals going against the broads! Eurusd trying to knock out DNT at 1.28, oil above 75, natgas above 8.

What makes me thinking: behaviour of usdcad and audusd.

Lahore FM 15:51 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
stopped out of gold shorts from 633 and 636 at 641.gold seems to have taken a liking to inflationary numbers this am from US.will keep aside.

madrid mm 14:15 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oil climbed further above $75 on Tuesday as Israel prepared to advance deeper into Lebanon, ignoring calls for a ceasefire, and saboteurs again attacked Iraq's northern oil export pipeline.

Violence in the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil, is keeping prices within striking distance of July's $78.40 a barrel record high.

Vienna GD 13:59 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 13:21 GMT August 1, 2006
VIENNA GD -- let's buy some gold at 585, if seen, this week..

nt i would really appreciate that ... but (unfortunately) the action of gold remembers me of gold at 420-440 a year ago. Several folks, including myself were waiting for gold to come back below 400 to appr. 370. It never happened. IT just moved up and down in a tiny range for weeks.
I think it's the same type of calm again ... before the storm(s) ... da big boyz accumulating and buying every single oz now. Missing the up and downs here. Looks like there are nameable buyers with deep pockets below 630 and 620 and last not least down to 600 - and desperate cabal seller at 640.

Hopefully i'm wrong - because I would really appreciate another dip below 600. Keepin fingers crossed.

What is YOUR reasoning for 58x?

Vienna GD 13:56 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
nt ... no problem, ask jay!

madrid mm 13:46 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
FWIW

-Paulson's speech at Columbia Business School in New York is scheduled to begin at 11:30 a.m. in New York.
-The Treasury said the remarks will focus on challenges for the U.S. and global economies.
-Senators Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, told Paulson last week they want the yuan to appreciate by Sept. 30 or they will press for a vote to impose a 27.5 percent duty on imports from China. The yuan is a unit of China's currency, the renminbi.

madrid mm 13:41 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Market Focus
Tuesday: The ISM's overall index and new orders index will offer new clues on the pace of the manufacturing slowdown. The employment index, given long term weakness in factory jobs, will be less useful than ISM's employment index on the non-manufacturing side which will be out Thursday. The prices paid indexes in both reports will be given careful consideration ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and uncertainty whether high input prices are finally pushing up output prices.

madrid mm 13:26 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 12:01 GMT August 1, 2006

TY sir

hong kong nt 13:22 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
VIENNA GD -- may i have your e-mail?

hong kong nt 13:21 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
VIENNA GD -- let's buy some gold at 585, if seen, this week..

houston st 12:11 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   

nat gas @ $8.490 heading into NY open...combo of higher spot, spec positions, technicals, and now TS Chris forming around the Virgin Islands...its a wonderous thing when the planets line up...$8.763, $8.800 & $9.022 offer resistance on the way to $10.00...gl/gt.

Vienna GD 12:01 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
madrid mm 07:59 ... yes the physical, and most the time cfds, SLV and silverstocks. Links later when back at trading desk - actually at work. For now just search the web for kitco, gold-eagle, ted butler and jason hommel.
In germany and austria we have VAT on silver except on a few coins. So in fact only makes sense to trade the physical within a company or if you "trade" that mentioned coins. No idea about the tax laws in spain.
Also: extremly wide spreads seen here (f.e. 30% or even more). Means you need a really good metals dealer. I have a few € on a kg.
Problem with silver: you need more space = a bigger safe. Advantage: more volatile than gold.

Syd 09:31 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Expectations that U.S. data later in the day may come in stronger than forecast and put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates next week is helping to lift the dollar in Europe Tuesday.

But market participants are still nervous ahead of the first major speech by new U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. There is concern that Paulson could either signal an end to the strong dollar policy of his recent predecessors or increase pressure on China to accelerate the advance of the yuan against the dollar. Either or both of these would probably be seen as negative for the U.S. currency.

On the data front, a strong Chicago purchasing managers' index Monday is seen as raising the chances that the Institute of Supply Management index for the country comes in above the consensus for 53.6 in July, down a little from 53.8 in June.

The other major piece of data from the U.S. is the core personal consumption and expenditure deflator, which is expected to have risen 0.2% on the month and 2.3% on the year.

Suggestions that the market may have to raise its expectations of a Fed rate hike next week also came after one of its non-voting members, William Poole, President of the St. Louis Fed, said chances of a Fed move are 50/50 and the decision next week will be a difficult one.

But the market is wary of pushing the dollar too much either way in case the Paulson speech turns out to be as eventful as some fear. Since his appointment, Paulson has made little comment about the dollar and it remains unclear whether he backs the strong dollar policy that the administration has pursued for many years.

Lahore FM 09:14 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
nt the post is for you.it was accidentally composed incorrectly.

nt,your 605 put option is going to be in the money i guess.the good thing about options is that one far more relaxed and lets the profits run.guess you get to close it by friday by when gold makes it at the money at least.

Lahore FM 09:10 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:55 GMT July 31, 2006
Short AudUsd 0.7652 with stops at 0.7678.

It is going to be in the money i guess.the good thing about options is that one far more relaxed and lets the profits run.guess you get to close it by friday by when gold makes it at the money at least.

madrid mm 07:59 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
any silver trader here ?
I am asking to learn more about this metal.
feedback and web pages to visit would be appreciated
ty

Syd 07:28 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Tocom benchmark June gold contract closes down Y12 at Y2,360/gram as "top heavy" longs unwind a little, spurred by lackluster overnight Comex performance, some JPY strength, says Tokyo trader. Plenty of scope for further long liquidation, however, market likely to stay in tight range for now ahead of upcoming US economic data. Tips spot - currently $632.25/oz, down around $2 on NY close - to swing around in broad $620-$645 range in coming sessions.

USA Zeus 03:45 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Sydney GVM-

The "super messages" incorrectly identified in the link from the following post. The stronger they are touted the better they act as a contrarian indicator as in the past-
Vienna GD 19:48 GMT July 31, 2006

sydney gvm 03:10 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:28 - what are you referring to when you say 'super signals' ?

hong kong nt 02:43 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
LAHORE FM -- long some Aug 605 put option this morning, hope it may work..

Lahore FM 02:29 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
hong kong nt 02:22 GMT August 1, 2006
perhaps i should also become more involved with core positions in metals.580 for 800+ would be nice surely.

USA Zeus 02:28 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
Looks like the super signals are at it again for another contra gold trade lower.

hong kong nt 02:22 GMT August 1, 2006 Reply   
LAHORE FM -- hope to see your 580 to reload core, expect 820 by coming X'mas..