Forex Futures Forum Archive for 08/02/2006

Vienna GD 20:25 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
sorry ... 2nd day of course

Vienna GD 19:55 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Today was the first trading day in august ... we should have seen a rally in the broads. Yet it failed again.
$HUI rallied back towards the highs - seems it was a trap.
Despite that ...

Also almost flat or hedged in paper metals now. We had a nice rally and now i prefer the bird in the hand - rather than two in the bush.
No change in the physical, the core. If tomorrow is another upday i'll maybe sell a bit ... a few % ... serpentine.

My guts say tomorrow down day for euro and the broads.
No idea about the metals. Silver looks good ... but 12.20 and 656 seem pretty strong resistance.

Night all!

Vienna GD 19:09 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Took considerable profits in gold and silver stocks ... i don't like what i see there! $HUI lost almost all of it's gains.
Doesn't bode well for tomorrow.
Close will be important! If no turnaround i also consider to lighten up in the metals.

Vienna GD 18:57 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Cyprus Mr. Jones 18:36 ... i know of some VERY VERY big boyz in that business ... and they are desperately buying the physical, in coins and not in bullion. In huge amounts. Guess why!

Cyprus Mr. Jones 18:36 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Do not agree 100 pct on the previously posted article, but worth a look.

World will collapse becouse of over pop and over consumption imvho.

Cyprus Mr. Jones 18:34 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
http://www.newstatesman.com/200607310033

Sell-out: Why hedge funds will destroy the world
Janet Bush
Monday 31st July 2006

If hedge funds were a country, it would be the eighth-biggest on the planet. They can sink whole economies, and have the potential to crash the entire global financial system. Yet they are beyond regulation. We should be very afraid. By Janet Bush

Something ominous is going on in world finance - again. On 11 May, the US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, raised rates and hinted that it might do so again. Wall Street wobbled but stock markets in the emerging economies fell through the floor. Since that day, Colombia's stock market has slumped by 42 per cent; Turkey's by 38 per cent; Pakistan and Egypt by 28 per cent; India by 25 per cent; the Czech Republic by 22 per cent.

Why? These fast-developing economies have been the recent darlings of the world's mobile capital, acting as magnets for multinational corporations seeking new frontiers. Yes, the US economy is still the biggest in the world and changes in US interest rates affect the entire global financial system. But there is something very dark indeed at the heart of this story and it is called the hedge-fund industry - lords of havoc who, a consensus is building, have the potential to be responsible for the next great crash - and nobody knows what to do about it.

Vienna GD 18:16 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Silver closing at intraday high is encouraging! Yet it's already pretty oversold.

Vienna GD 16:59 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
According to ifr Hedge funds have been having well-publicized problems making money in forex this year and jobbers didn"t seem to be having much better luck of late either.

Hey - why didn't they trade the metals ... we had nice trends all the year ... not?! Hehehe.

Vienna GD 16:36 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Is it this what the broads are looking forward to?

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Chris threatened to become the first hurricane of 2006 on Wednesday and aimed at U.S. oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico where monster storms like Katrina wreaked havoc last year ... LINK or some of the other Topnews?

Vienna GD 16:33 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Can anybody explain, why the broads are so happy and rallying almost straight up today?

Did i miss something - or is it just the same irrational behaviour (the fed monetizing high oil?) we witnessed in Q1?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Gold : The current expected lower trading range is 613.8 - 624.6 - 635.4 and the upper trading range is 656.9 - 667.7 - 678.5. (The neutral zone is 635.4 - 646.1 - 656.9). The daily directional indicator is (618.2) - 643.0* - 656.9. The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - (560.0) - 589.7* - 614.3 - (618.2) - 643.0* - 643.4 - 656.9 - 662.3* - 672.5 - (676.4) - 696.3*.  A projected supporting barrier is located at 620.5 . A Projected resistant level is expected at 640.3. 

dc CB 16:22 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
When considering long gold, please note this post from the FF earlier. Lots of US paper next week, wouldn't want high gold prices to suggest ïnflation


NYC jr 13:09 GMT August 2, 2006
9:00 *TREASURY SAYS BOND ISSUANCE LIKELY TO RISE TO ENSURE LIQUIDITY
9:00 *TREASURY SAYS 2007 BOND ISSUANCE `LIKELY TO RISE SLIGHTLY'
9:00 *U.S. 30-YEAR BOND WILL BE RE-OPENING OF FEBRUARY ISSUE
9:00 *SALES OF U.S. 30-YEAR BONDS ARE CURRENTLY TWICE A YEAR
9:00 *U.S. LIKELY TO SELL CASH MANAGEMENT BILLS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER
9:00 *U.S. TO SELL $10 BLN IN 30-YEAR BONDS ON AUG. 10
9:00 *U.S. TO SELL $13 BLN IN 10-YEAR NOTES ON AUG. 9
9:00 *U.S. TO SELL $21 BLN IN 3-YEAR NOTES ON AUG. 7
9:00 *U.S. TO START QUARTERLY SALES OF 30-YR BONDS IN FEB. 2007
9:00 *U.S. TREASURY TO SELL $44 BLN IN NOTES, BONDS NEXT WEEK

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Crude Oil (September) : The current expected lower trading range is 73.39 - 73.94 - 74.49 and the upper trading range is 75.60 - 76.15 - 76.70. (The neutral zone is 74.49 - 75.05 - 75.60). The daily directional indicator is 72.38* - (74.53) - 75.05. The market momentum is strong when the market is trading above 75.30. The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - (66.56) - 66.98* - 70.60 - 72.38* - 72.95 - (74.53) - 75.05 - 75.27* - 75.30 - 77.77* - (82.50). A projected supporting barrier is located at 72.93 . A projected resistant level is expected at 76.12 


General Comments : Projected Support at 72.93
The critical level of my monthly cycle is located at 75.01 - 75.93. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 75.01. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 73.15 - 75.01 - 76.86.

london mamun 15:57 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
add more gold at 650 all stop now 646

Lahore FM 15:49 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Long Gold 649.90,stops at 641.

hong kong nt 15:46 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Any option specialist here? my guess of Aug. gold range is 580-680 or 600-700. how should i position accordingly? thanks..

Vienna GD 15:24 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
nt ... did i miss your email?

Bombay SAS 15:21 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Sorry about the last message was intended for the Forex Forum .... GL GT

hong kong nt 15:14 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
SHORT SMALL AT 655 TO TEST MY LUCK..

Bombay SAS 15:12 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Anyone have an opinion on the eur/gbp cross ... looking to go long here @ 6820 and buy a put option Strike 6820 at a cost of 25 pips expiry 18AUG ....

madrid mm 14:55 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
The Big Question: What is carbon trading, and can it save the world from global warming?

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1209708.ece

houston st 14:45 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   

weekly stats:

crude -1.8
mogas -.100
dist +.700

ref runs -1.7% to 90.8%

mkt digesting, but crude off its high here...nat gas stats tomorrow...gl/t.

london mamun 14:28 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD
silver is very stronger then gold. all silver sold there is no more silver

Vienna GD 13:59 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD 21:17 GMT August 1, 2006
...
If that isn't a trap and if there aren't metal negative news tomorrow - we will see a continuation of this trend - IMHO.
...

There it is ... but now the tougher part of the story: when to take the/some chips of the table?????

At the first glance ... a rally where i look - and gold and silver stocks still VERY strong.

Lahore FM 13:57 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
london mamun 13:39 GMT August 2, 2006
673 likely by friday same for your silver target,maybe silver even sooner.the downside totally failed at 630.

london mamun 13:39 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
gold and silver target now 673 and 12.35 stop 645 and 11.75

Manila Tom 13:12 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
short gold here 650, stop 670 for 608

hong kong nt 09:29 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Unload gold core at 648, keep 630P..

Syd 07:26 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Forex Focus: Concern About ECB Rate Rises May Curb Euro Another 25 basis point hike in euro-zone rates may be a foregone conclusion Thursday but that doesn't mean the euro will benefit.

Sure, many in the market expect that continued strong data and indications of underlying price pressures will probably ensure that the European Central Bank raises rates at least once again before the year end.

However, uncertainty over just how far the ECB will go, concern that the ECB will be reluctant to signal its intentions at this stage, and technical barriers halting the euro's advance could well cap any further currency gains at this stage.

"While a rate hike this week from the ECB seems virtually assured, the accompanying press conference is likely to be cautious about signaling intentions going forwards, which could see expectations scaled back," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin , chief currency strategist with UBS in London.

"We see downside risk for the euro versus most of the key crosses," he said.

Stephen Jen, chief currency strategist with Morgan Stanley in London, queries just how far the market should be looking for ECB rates to rise anyway.

Although some expect rates to make it to 3.50% by the year end, from 2.75% now, he reckons that the 100 basis points of tightening that is likely to have taken place by the end of Thursday, along with the recent strength of the euro itself, "will have material effects on the euro zone."

"Investors should there ask whether the ECB could overtighten," he said.

For the time being, however, the widely expected rise in rates to 3.0% from 2.75% Thursday appears more than well justified.

Data this week alone showed price pressures on the march. Euro-zone inflation data Monday showed that the year-on-year rate in July remained at 2.5%, well above the ECB's own target of 2.0%.

Then the purchasing managers' index Tuesday showed not only that manufacturing activity remains strong but that prices are increasing too.

The headline PMI dropped to 57.4 from 57.7 but was still close to the previous month's six-year high, noted Martin van Vliet, a European economist with ING Financial Markets in Amsterdam.

"This suggests that the European manufacturing sector maintains substantial forward momentum," he said.

However, it is a rise in the input and output prices component that is likely to trigger an even more hawkish response from the ECB by "probably intensifying the ECB's concerns about rising inflationary pressures," van Vliet said.

In addition to all this, Germany reported that its labor markets are proving much tighter than expected, with the number of jobless falling 84,000 last month instead of just the 30,000 that so many forecast.

This was also reflected in euro-zone data showing that the rate of unemployment slipped to 7.8% in June from 7.9% in May.

"Overall the data suggests that the industrial recovery still has plenty of momentum, while labor market conditions are improving," said Lucy Hartiss, a European economist with Capital Economics in London.

She said this suggests that the ECB will be able to push rates as far as 3.50% later this year before rates start falling modestly again next year as the global economy slows down.

But what troubles some strategists as much as the uncertainty over where the rate cycle will peak is the euro's already desultory performance.

"The single currency continues to struggle for strength against the dollar despite the fact that most euro zone and U.S. newsflow is positive for the euro right now," said Steve Barrow, chief currency analyst with Bear Stearns International in London.

Although the euro has finally broken up through resistance at $1.2700, it is still struggling to make serious headway over $1.2800. Technical analysts at ABN-Amro suggest it can probably head for $1.3185 after it has broken $1.2855. But failure to do so could suggest a test back on the downside of support at around $1.2645.

Early Wednesday, the euro was still getting support from the renewed conviction that even strong data in the U.S. won't stop the U.S. Federal Reserve from putting its interest rates on pause at its next meeting Aug. 8.

madrid mm 06:37 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
Vienna GD

Ty

madrid mm 06:37 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
SINGAPORE, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed half a dollar on Wednesday as a storm was forecast to head for the cluster of oil production rigs in the Gulf of Mexico this week and gasoline stocks in the United States were expected to fall.

Continued fighting between Israel and Hizbollah, a bomb blast on Iraq's oil infrastructure in Turkey and Iran's nuclear stand-off with the West added to the bullish sentiment.

USA Zeus 06:11 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:10 GMT August 2, 2006

Oops- scratch LOL :-)

USA Zeus 06:10 GMT August 2, 2006 Reply   
zeus