Vienna GD 20:39 GMT August 7, 2006
Regarding gold and silver: i expect another attack, maybe overnight - or tomorrow in european or maybe even american session ... anyway will place some limit buy orders.
Vienna GD 20:36 GMT August 7, 2006
Now (after markets) SPY and DIA near intraday high ... as expected ... confirms no hike and (at least a small) rally in eurusd, the broads and the metals tomorrow ... maybe in the last hour there will be some selling - IF we see a strong rally first.
This is just a wild guess ... but according to earlier FOMC meetings a pretty likely outcome!
Intended trades overnight or tomorrow: short usdjpy, xxxjpy, long eurusd, gold & silver and the broads. Whether ahead of the FOMC or after the announcement ... not sure yet.
Maybe a few safe looking and (very) small trades ahead - but most likely most of the trades thereafter. Greed is a bad advisor. Patience and sitting is key.
Vienna GD 19:41 GMT August 7, 2006
Long QQQQ from 36.68, tr. stop 15
Vienna GD 19:24 GMT August 7, 2006
Just right here the Dow could smoothly start to rally towards tomorrow ... again: SMOOTHLY ... and DYOD!
What is strange: MEGA high oil is, plain and simple, just ignored. Maybe also related to FED OMO with another 9 blns today.
Either hedged or Flat in paper gold and silver here.
The same applies to my stock market shorts. Even consider to go long here.
sanfrancisco analyst 19:10 GMT August 7, 2006
US Dollar Index leaving us guessing ahead of FED at Monday close of 84.55-60ish. Making no assumptions until a full day after the FED.
Lahore FM 18:51 GMT August 7, 2006
Lahore FM 17:44 GMT August 7, 2006
Long Silver at 12.28**,no stops for now.
houston st 18:18 GMT August 7, 2006
BP is fudging on their timeframe to restart Prudhoe Bay, although I think they're trying to ease the mkt into the truth, which is now looking like months if they have to replace the majority of the pipelines...originally it was days, then two weeks...SPR oil won't do much good for those left coast refineries, as they are setup to process ANS crude, and logistically it doesn't work very well, but it could prevent a further run on the price s/t...gl/gt.
Vienna GD 18:00 GMT August 7, 2006
Would not be the first time that they suppress the metals ahead of a FOMC. No hike means a stock market rally and will most likely also pull the metals along. So what to do????
Push em down ahead of the FOMC.
640 for gold and 12 or even lower silver possible imho.
Could be wrong of course.
Also take a look at eurusd and usdjpy ... tells exactly the same story. Da big boyz take the opposite side of what tomorrow will be seen. Maybe also some (european) CBs are a at work. Also helps to suppress the metals. Because tomorrow eurusd and ... and ... and will rally.
Almost 100% sure about that ... they already played the same game several times.
Re FED: I think we will see a rally in the BROADS and the metals - ANYWAY. A hike or not is NOT the question imho. The question is "what ist the feds message"?
A hawkish fed will cause a "false" spike and then the rally, a neutral or dovish fed will just cause a rally.
There's imho only one bad outcome possible: the fed hikes and remains hawkish ... an unlikely case, but who knows.
In that case i expect the broads to suffer towards todays close and tonight and tomorrow until announcement.
Could be wrong of course, so DYOD!
Lahore FM 17:44 GMT August 7, 2006
Long Silver at 11.28,no stops for now.
Lahore FM 17:34 GMT August 7, 2006
Lahore FM 19:24 GMT August 4, 2006
added small long at 644.10.stops down there at 635 with the rest of the positions.
Lahore FM 15:32 GMT August 4, 2006
3rd small long added 647.40,stops with the rest of the positions.
closed at 648.50.
houston st 17:13 GMT August 7, 2006
added a couple of updated euro/crude futures charts/commentary @ this link...
madrid mm 15:48 GMT August 7, 2006
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Here's a little song that investors should be singing as they await the results from the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on Aug. 8.
(And apologies in advance to fans of The Clash.)
Will they raise or will they pause now?
Will they raise or will they pause now?
If they pause there will be trouble.
But if they raise there will be double.
So come on and let me know:
Will they raise or will they pause?
madrid mm 14:44 GMT August 7, 2006
October sugar futures at the New York Board of Trade on Monday morning were trading modestly higher on short covering in a bear market. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, and late last week hit a fresh seven-month low of 14.10 cents a pound. The sugar bulls are just a bit encouraged that price action Monday did fill on the upside last week's downside price gap on the daily chart. But for the bulls to begin to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum they will first have to push the October contract above solid near-term chart resistance at 15.00 cents. Above that lies technical resistance at 15.25 cents and then at 15.50 cents. The bears can point out that October sugar had become technically short-term oversold last week, and the recent rebound is just an upside correction in a market that is still fully near-term bearish. See at the bottom of the chart that the Relative Strength Index did last week push into oversold territory below the 30.00 level. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid chart support at last week's low of 14.10 cents a pound, basis October futures. Below that lies chart support at 14.00 cents and then at 13.85 cents. On a longer-term technical basis, the weekly continuation chart for nearby NYBOT sugar futures does show that a downtrend line is in place from the early February high of 19.73 cents. It would take a push in nearby sugar futures back above the last "reaction high" of 17.25 cents for the bulls to regain some longer-term technical strength. The weekly sugar chart also shows that below chart support at last week's low of 14.10 cents, there is not much technical support at all until the 12.00-cent area.
Hong Kong Qindex 11:54 GMT August 7, 2006
Crude Oil (September) : The current expected lower trading range is 72.74 - 73.34 - 73.95 and the upper trading range is 75.15 - 75.76 - 76.36. (The neutral zone is 73.95 - 74.55 - 75.15). The daily directional indicator is (74.52) - 74.55 - 74.62*. The market is under pressure when it is trading below (74.52). The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : - (67.74) - 69.23* - 72.14 - (74.52) - 74.55 - 74.62* - 76.96 - 80.00* - (81.31).Â A projected supporting barrier is located at 72.93 .Â A projected resistant level is expected at 76.86.Â
General Comments : Projected Resistance at 76.86
The critical level of my monthly cycle is located at 75.01 - 75.93. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 75.01. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 73.15 - 75.01 - 76.86. The mid-point reference of 76.15 and 75.01 is 74.08.
houston st 08:37 GMT August 7, 2006
added sept06 euro futures chart/commentary to my link...
houston st 08:13 GMT August 7, 2006
crude continuing up here in London, making new highs...news of the Prudhoe Bay shutdown spreading...price touched the weekly pivot high zone before pausing here...see chart...remember to take the underscore out of the web address...gl/gt.
hong kong nt 07:49 GMT August 7, 2006
LAOWEN -- bearish on Hang Seng index this week, long 162P @ 76..
houston st 04:02 GMT August 7, 2006
Nice move up here on Sunday night in crude...BP Plc said its shutting the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska, the largest in the U.S, because of corrosion in a pipeline. This amounts to about 400k/bpd of production, or around 8% of the U.S. total. FYI, corrosion = potential leaks (haven't these guys heard of cathodic protection?). BP says it will take "days" to repair, and doesn't know when production will resume. Nat gas is not getting any type of boost on the news, and in fact gapped down on the open.
Expected resistance @ the new weekly pivot high zone of $76.58-$77.05 area...extreme extension @ the monthly high pivot zone of $79.24-$80.15. London & NY opens should certainly be exciting, imho...current price sept06 crude @ $75.95...Good trades...
hong kong nt 02:46 GMT August 7, 2006
GOLD -- preparing for the possibility of seeing 580-600 this month..
hong kong nt 01:04 GMT August 7, 2006
GOLD -- covered short at 647..